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Recently I've become addicted to following the business side of Hollywood. My interest was spurred by a fantasy movie studio league that I set up on a whim. Much like fantasy football compels you to actually care about performance in games that you'd need to be forced to watch at gunpoint, I've found myself caught up in the economic fate of films like Dolphin Story 2 and Left Behind (side note: please, go see these wonderful cinematic treats!). I don't know if anyone else cares about box office returns, but I'm hoping there's at least one or two others out there. The purpose of this thread is to talk about weekend box office returns, total bombs and surprise hits. What YA movies are going to turn a surprise hundred million domestic, if this summer will bust Hollywood out of its recent funk and how many more Liam Neeson movies where he growls into a phone can be made before the market reaches a saturation point? Here are some resources I use, personally: BoxOfficeMojo (http://boxofficemojo.com/) - Probably my favorite site to follow box office returns and read inside baseball analysis. It's run by a guy named Ray Subers, and is an affiliate of IMDB. He does features every once in a while, like his movie season prediction posts, which often want for accuracy but are entertaining reads anyway. Also one of the best resources I've found for box office statistics, schedules, and cross referencing actor/studio/director grosses. CinemaScore (http://www.cinemascore.com/) - A weekly poll of movie-goers which measures the appeal of various films. Useful for predicting grosses if you can peg a movie accurately to a similar previous release, but they can only tell you what an audience thinks about something after they see it. Hollywood Stock Exchange (http://www.hsx.com/) - A market for movie futures utilizing play money. I don't trade, myself, but I've found the trading score for movies is a somewhat useful metric for bombs and hits. Grantland's Boxoffice Reports (http://grantland.com/tags/box-office/) - Fun write-ups for weekend box office reports. Typical Grantland editorial style which might be a plus or a minus depending on how you feel about them.
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Sep 22, 2014 17:09
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I really like Box Office Mojo, although Subers predictions seem to vary from pretty average to way, way off. One example was How to Train Your Dragon 2, which underperformed by, like 50%, of what he predicted for his summer list. I was surprised by that one too, but I guess it makes sense in retrospect. It was way too long after the first to hit the same enthusiasm as a sequel, and the cartoon drained away a lot more of the interest. He also underpredicted Guardians, by 80%, although I think a lot of people did that. Really, Guardians and Dragon 2 are sort of the story of the summer box office. Amid flagging interest in endless sequels you have a surprise hit with a fun, lively movie using an almost unknown property.
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Sep 23, 2014 00:00
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