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latinotwink1997
Jan 2, 2008

Taste my Ball of Hope, foul dragon!



Guaranteed losing season for the Bills now.

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Rasczak
Mar 30, 2005


This is going to end about as well for Orton as a similar move did for Samson

Henchman of Santa
Aug 21, 2010

C-Euro posted:

If this was in NO I would already have this down as a loss. Maybe I'm just assuming it's the same Saints team that ran us out of the building in our last playoff appearance?

I just don't think our defense is sustainably this good at all. It makes winning more exciting when you have expectations stemming from a lifetime of failure.

Sour Diesel
Jan 30, 2010

Osemele is officially out for the Atlanta game and Will Hill has been activated.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006
I posted this over in Aftermath but I figured I'd copy and paste it here too.

Part of me is considering mocking up a Monte Carlo model to figure out what records Philly and Dallas will have when they get to Thanksgiving. That would be the most work I've ever put into being a fan and all it'll probably say is "I dunno, they're both gonna have good records." Still, it might make me less nervous. Math and I have a weird relationship like that.

If I actually got something working I could do similar stuff for other teams assuming other people gave me rough guesses at how likely they think each team is to win any individual game.


axeil posted:

The Cowboys are a good team with the league's best running game and a strong defense.

The Cowboys are a good team with the league's best running game and a strong defense.

The Cowboys are a good team with the league's best running game and a strong defense.

:gonk:

No matter how many times I say it I still can't believe it. The rest of this season is gonna be nuts. At least given how terrible the rest of the NFC is the runner-up in Philly/Dallas is probably getting a wild card. But man, that Thanksgiving game is looming bigger and bigger every week. The Cowboys still have to play:

Skins
Cardinals
@Jaguars (London)
BYE
@Giants
Eagles (Thanksgiving)
@Bears
@Eagles
Colts
@Skins

While the Eagles still have to play:

@Cardinals
@Texans
Panthers
@Packers
Titans
@Cowboys (Thanksgiving)
Seahawks
Cowboys
@Skins (Saturday night)
@Giants

The Cowboys schedule is way easier, excluding the Philly games there are probably at max 4 losses there (Cardinals, Bears, Colts, maybe the Skins steal one?) while they're most likely going to be walking into the Thanksgiving game no worse than 11-2.

For the Eagles, I see at max 5 losses (Cardinals, Texans, Packers, Seahawks, Skins/Giants steal one) and they could easily drop 3 of their next 5 (Cardinals, Texans, Packers seem most likely). That would have them walking into Dallas at 9-4, a full 2 games back of my worst projection for Dallas. Being 9-4 would be terrible because our only chance to win the division would be to sweep the Cowboys, and either win all the rest of our games (Seahawks and 2 road division games) or hope the Bears/Colts are able to knock Dallas down a peg while we keep things even and win out on divisional record.

gently caress. I really, really wanted the Giants to win so we could at least get some breathing room. The division is gonna come down to Thanksgiving and I just know we're gonna lose and I'll be so sad I won't even want to eat turkey :smith:

axeil fucked around with this message at 06:19 on Oct 20, 2014

Cash Monet
Apr 5, 2009

Get well soon Jadeveon, the football gods demand more blood.

Blotto Skorzany
Nov 7, 2008

He's a PSoC, loose and runnin'
came the whisper from each lip
And he's here to do some business with
the bad ADC on his chip
bad ADC on his chiiiiip

schweens posted:

Cam Newton is going to make the Packers defense look really bad. The Packers offense will look good but not good enough to make up for the 34 points Carolina will drop.

The NASCAR package with Matthews/Peppers/Perry/Neal looked pretty good out there. If the Packers hadn't dropped a bunch of points early, Newton probably would have had more opportunities to run (I guess his ankle is all better now?) and the game may have looked quite different (though I guess that's always the case with counterfactuals).

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







Blotto Skorzany posted:

The NASCAR package with Matthews/Peppers/Perry/Neal looked pretty good out there. If the Packers hadn't dropped a bunch of points early, Newton probably would have had more opportunities to run (I guess his ankle is all better now?) and the game may have looked quite different (though I guess that's always the case with counterfactuals).

Doubtful.

It was pretty obvious after the first two drives the Packers were going to run train on the defense. The Panthers just don't have the personnel to match up against Rodgers.

Even though it was obvious as hell to all involved, they ran 4 running plays in their first six, and the best was a five yard newton scramble. Shula is a loving hack. The Panthers will go nowhere while he's calling plays.

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe
Rodgers is going to run wild on the entire NFL South.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

rrrrrrrrrrrt posted:

Rodgers is going to run wild on the entire NFL South.

No he isn't.

Iodised QQ
Jul 23, 2004

rrrrrrrrrrrt posted:

Rodgers is going to run wild on the entire NFL South.

you mean the entire nfl is going to run wild on the nfc south, right? They bad.

I didn't have time to watch much game rewind this week but I've been crazy sick the past couple days so I'm gonna have nothing but time for a few days. Will watch some games of teams I haven't seen a lot of and see if I find anything worth talking about in here.

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe

Chilichimp posted:

No he isn't.

You're right, Tampa Bay is a total trap game.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

rrrrrrrrrrrt posted:

You're right, Tampa Bay is a total trap game.

They don't even play the AFC South this year, so it would be hard to beat that entire division. :eng101:

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

Someone suggested that the AFC South is actually better than the NFC South which I laughed at, but after consideration it's possible that the Colts are indeed good enough to carry the rest of the shitshow division over what the NFCS has to offer

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

Intruder posted:

Someone suggested that the AFC South is actually better than the NFC South which I laughed at, but after consideration it's possible that the Colts are indeed good enough to carry the rest of the shitshow division over what the NFCS has to offer

There's not an NFC South roster standing currently that could beat the Fitzpatrick Texans.

ulmont
Sep 15, 2010

IF I EVER MISS VOTING IN AN ELECTION (EVEN AMERICAN IDOL) ,OR HAVE UNPAID PARKING TICKETS, PLEASE TAKE AWAY MY FRANCHISE

rrrrrrrrrrrt posted:

You're right, Tampa Bay is a total trap game.

The usual NFL/NFC mistake.

Intruder posted:

Someone suggested that the AFC South is actually better than the NFC South which I laughed at, but after consideration it's possible that the Colts are indeed good enough to carry the rest of the shitshow division over what the NFCS has to offer

Lessee...through week 7:

AFC South:
11-16-0, for a combined win percentage of 40.74%.

NFC South:
8-17-1, for a combined win percentage of 30.77%.

Yup, we bad.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

The Texans probably wouldn't be favored over the Saints, Falcons or Panthers on a neutral field

ulmont
Sep 15, 2010

IF I EVER MISS VOTING IN AN ELECTION (EVEN AMERICAN IDOL) ,OR HAVE UNPAID PARKING TICKETS, PLEASE TAKE AWAY MY FRANCHISE

Intruder posted:

The Texans probably wouldn't be favored over the Saints, Falcons or Panthers on a neutral field

Texans lost to: @ Giants, @ Cowboys, v. Colts.

Saints lost to: @ Falcons, @ Browns, @ Cowboys, @ Lions.

Falcons lost to: @ Bengals, @ Vikings, @ Giants, v. Bears, @ Ravens.

Panthers lost to: v. Steelers, @ Ravens, @ Packers (and tied @ Bengals).


I dunno why you wouldn't favor the Texans on a neutral field.

Iodised QQ
Jul 23, 2004

Intruder posted:

The Texans probably wouldn't be favored over the Saints, Falcons or Panthers on a neutral field

A neutral field implies that the Saints or Falcons wouldn't be at home in their domes, in which case, welp

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

^^ Fair

The Texans wins are the Redskins, the Raiders, and the EJ Manuel version of the Bills. I feel like we haven't proven the Texans can beat anyone yet. Tonight will be a big test. If they somehow beat the Steelers tonight, I'll feel a lot better about the rest of the season. It's looking like they'll possibly take up the mantle of 8-8 Texas team

No Safe Word
Feb 26, 2005

ulmont posted:

Texans lost to: @ Giants, @ Cowboys, v. Colts.

Saints lost to: @ Falcons, @ Browns, @ Cowboys, @ Lions.

Falcons lost to: @ Bengals, @ Vikings, @ Giants, v. Bears, @ Ravens.

Panthers lost to: v. Steelers, @ Ravens, @ Packers (and tied @ Bengals).


I dunno why you wouldn't favor the Texans on a neutral field.

If you wanna go with the "who beat who" method, then:

http://www.beatgraphs.com/graphs.php?league=NFL


Texans outrank the entire NFC South, though they only have a direct "beatpath" to the Bucs.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

No Safe Word posted:

If you wanna go with the "who beat who" method, then:

http://www.beatgraphs.com/graphs.php?league=NFL


Texans outrank the entire NFC South, though they only have a direct "beatpath" to the Bucs.

Paging all Cardinals fans

Havoc904
Jul 29, 2006

A school festival is a festival that takes place at our school!

axeil posted:

I posted this over in Aftermath but I figured I'd copy and paste it here too.

Part of me is considering mocking up a Monte Carlo model to figure out what records Philly and Dallas will have when they get to Thanksgiving. That would be the most work I've ever put into being a fan and all it'll probably say is "I dunno, they're both gonna have good records." Still, it might make me less nervous. Math and I have a weird relationship like that.

If I actually got something working I could do similar stuff for other teams assuming other people gave me rough guesses at how likely they think each team is to win any individual game.

I think each team will have lost at least one more game by Thanksgiving, with 2 being the most each team would lose by then. So they should still be a game within each other, with the winner taking control of the division.

For the Cowboys, I could see them dropping the Cardinals game and one of the divisional games with either Washington or NYG. Then for Philly, I think their most likely losses come from either the Cardinals as well or Green Bay. Its very possible that both teams could be sitting at 10-1, but I would say its more likely to see them both at 9-2 or 8-3. Regardless, it will still be a huge divisional game.

I have never wanted to go out to a Thanksgiving game before due to being around family for the Holiday, but this year I am heavily considering looking for tickets for that game.

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe
Oops, didn't catch my NFL/NFC mistake.

NFC South has the worst combined net points of any division in the league at this point at a whopping -159. Next closest is the AFC South at -45, but most of that is the Jags. Only division with every team having a negative point differential at this point.

Amazingly the Saints have the best point differential in the division at -10.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

rrrrrrrrrrrt posted:

Oops, didn't catch my NFL/NFC mistake.

NFC South has the worst combined net points of any division in the league at this point at a whopping -159. Next closest is the AFC South at -45, but most of that is the Jags. Only division with every team having a negative point differential at this point.

Amazingly the Saints have the best point differential in the division at -10.

To their credit, they're losing close games for the most part, and actually managing to score.

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe

Chilichimp posted:

To their credit, they're losing close games for the most part, and actually managing to score.

There is an alternate universe where the Saints are the worst 5-1 team in the league.

Joey Freshwater
Jun 20, 2004

Always playing with my meat
Grimey Drawer
Tampa Bay is still only 2 games out of first place in the NFC South.

Yeah we bad.

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

MindlessHavok posted:

Tampa Bay is still only 2 games out of first place in the NFC South.

Yeah we bad.

I hope they somehow put it together. Tampa Bay steals the dumb division away, hilarity ensues.

TeeMerk
Jun 9, 2013

Shinjobi posted:

I hope they somehow put it together. Tampa Bay steals the dumb division away, hilarity ensues.

They take the division at 7-9, host Philly in a WC game and win it 9-7.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer
As long as it's not Carolina, NFC South chaos forever!

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

TeeMerk posted:

They take the division at 7-9, host Philly in a WC game and win it 9-7.

Hail Satan. :devil:

BlindSite
Feb 8, 2009

The stupid thing about the nfc south is that there's four teams with a really solid foundation. They just all happen to be coached by retards. They'd all benefit from a coaching exchange.

At least the Panthers aren't Oakland. If nothing else I take solace in that.

BlindSite fucked around with this message at 02:34 on Oct 21, 2014

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002

They wasted Luanne on Lucky!

She could of have been so much more but the writers just didn't care!
Yeah Mike Smith and Sean Payton sure are a bunch of dolts.

Kawalimus
Jan 17, 2008

Better Living Through Birding And Pessimism
Every division will have their round as the NFL's worst. Just like the NFC West did and AFC West.

v2vian man
Sep 1, 2007

Only question I
ever thought was hard
was do I like Kirk
or do I like Picard?

Kawalimus posted:

Every division will have their round as the NFL's worst. Just like the NFC West did and AFC West.

Given tonight's game, I think the AFC South is currently holding the title. I don't mean to talk poo poo about the Jags since they just made the Browns look like the Browns, but there are some bad teams in the AFC S

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Kawalimus
Jan 17, 2008

Better Living Through Birding And Pessimism

football fuckerman posted:

Given tonight's game, I think the AFC South is currently holding the title. I don't mean to talk poo poo about the Jags since they just made the Browns look like the Browns, but there are some bad teams in the AFC S

Indianapolis itself pulls them out of that I think. NFC South has no good teams at all.

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