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Today Obama is widely expected to announce a new executive order that will prevent a large amount of undocumented immigrants from being deported, and permit them to apply for work authorization. The exact details are still up in the air, but the program is expected to expand the existing "dreamer" program that protects people brought into the US under the age of 16, by increasing the age to 18. It may, though this is not certain (and has become less likely in the past few days if leaks are to be believed), also protect the parents of those people who have been in the United States for some length of time. This program would not grant permanent residency or a path to citizenship, as neither can be done by executive order, and would be revokable by the President at will (also simply a result of doing something by executive order). It could cover up to 5 million people, though most of those are only covered if the order protects parents of Dreamers. The political ramifications are likely to be massive and may prompt a government shutdown as Republicans attach riders to spending bills trying to overturn the action. It is also likely to result in Republican 2016 candidates being required to pledge to overturn the EO, should they be elected. On the other hand it is also likely to rile up exactly who you'd expect to get riled up. It also, according to Republicans, makes immigration overhaul by legislation impossible. To put it mildly, the idea that Republicans would pass any sort of immigration overhaul without this is a source of some skepticism. A current article is below, I'll be keeping this post updated today: quote:WASHINGTON — The fight to sway public opinion about President Obama’s soon-to-be-announced executive action on immigration was intensifying before the president’s scheduled address to the nation on Thursday evening from the East Room of the White House. EDIT: The EO will apply to: 1) Parents of any US citizen or permanent resident inside the United States since before January 1, 2010 2) Anyone who entered the US at 15 or under, before January 1, 2010 http://www.scribd.com/doc/247320784/White-House-Details-on-Anticipated-Administrative-Relief evilweasel fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Nov 20, 2014 |
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Nov 20, 2014 16:47
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Let them shut down the government. Even better if they wait till their new members are seated. Maybe once and for all people will see what the hell they've done by voting these guys in.... ...oh who am I kidding, they'll forget as soon as 2016 rolls around. 
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Nov 20, 2014 16:50
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I expect this is going to make Thanksgiving especially torturous for some people. What ramifications can we expect this to have re: the labor force? Is the job market going to become even more saturated with weary hopefuls looking to scrape out a living wage? CommieGIR posted:Let them shut down the government. Even better if they wait till their new members are seated. They'll forget by the end of next month.
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Nov 20, 2014 16:52
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CommieGIR posted:Let them shut down the government. Even better if they wait till their new members are seated. As long as the democrats leadership think all you need to win an election is to say they arn't crazy, then yes they will lose elections. I wonder how much racism the right will be spouting for the next two years because of this order.
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Nov 20, 2014 16:53
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Oxxidation posted:I expect this is going to make Thanksgiving especially torturous for some people. Between this and the supposed Wal Mart strike on Thanksgiving evening...
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Nov 20, 2014 16:55
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quote:“The country’s going to go nuts, because they’re going to see it as a move outside the authority of the president, and it’s going to be a very serious situation,” Mr. Coburn said in an interview with USA Today. “You’re going to see — hopefully not — but you could see instances of anarchy. You could see violence.” You might also see me try to swallow my own head. You might not, but you might also, too.
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Nov 20, 2014 16:58
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Oxxidation posted:I expect this is going to make Thanksgiving especially torturous for some people. These people generally have jobs. They just have no protections, because their employers can take advantage of them. You're already competing with them and giving them labor protections is only going to help you.
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Nov 20, 2014 16:59
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I dunno anyone doing their Black Friday shopping on Thanksgiving evening kinda deserves what they get. I'm not sure people are going to necessarily forget about the shut down. I think there's a growing amount of people that want to shut the Federal Government down and just don't realize that affects their lives in a noticeably negative way. This kind of bluster gets those people motivated while making others that disagree with it to disengage from the obviously broken system so it's win-win.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:00
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If a shutdown results from this pissing off Republican officials then the blame will be that Obama overstepped his bounds by doing this. I think we need an overhaul on immigration in this country but this act seems to try and only help those who are likely to vote in the next presidential run.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:03
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Radish posted:I dunno anyone doing their Black Friday shopping on Thanksgiving evening kinda deserves what they get. There's two groups of people that will care about a shutdown: people who will think "those loving loons" - these people may forget by 2016. There's also people who know undocumented immigrants, who will remember that they shut down the government to try to deport their friend (and also that if a Republican takes the Presidency, that Republican will deport them). I do not expect the latter group to forget as quickly.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:11
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So I guess none of the major networks will air the speech due to it being "overtly political" http://www.politico.com/playbook/?hp=l5_4 quote:BROADCAST NETS won’t carry the address. A network insider tells Playbook: “There was agreement among the broadcast networks that this was overtly political. The White House has tried to make a comparison to a time that all the networks carried President Bush in prime time, also related to immigration [2006]. But that was a bipartisan announcement, and this is an overtly political move by the White House.”
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Nov 20, 2014 17:21
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America is doomed. Expect anarchy to reign.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:23
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BouncingBuckyBalls posted:If a shutdown results from this pissing off Republican officials then the blame will be that Obama overstepped his bounds by doing this. I think we need an overhaul on immigration in this country but this act seems to try and only help those who are likely to vote in the next presidential run. Only way to help them will probably be an act of CongAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA sorry. Amused to Death posted:So I guess none of the major networks will air the speech due to it being "overtly political" Well this is some grade-A purestrain bullshit. It's a policy announcement. Who gives a poo poo if it's an executive order?
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Nov 20, 2014 17:23
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BouncingBuckyBalls posted:If a shutdown results from this pissing off Republican officials then the blame will be that Obama overstepped his bounds by doing this. I think we need an overhaul on immigration in this country but this act seems to try and only help those who are likely to vote in the next presidential run. This move is definitely politically motivated, but I think Obama is reasoning that when Republicans let their uglier side (the racist, sexist, foot-in-mouth stuff) come out they shoot themselves in the foot and lose elections. Now that there's Republican control of both houses it makes sense to try to rattle them in order to get them to say the incredibly offensive poo poo that's always brewing under the surface Amused to Death posted:So I guess none of the major networks will air the speech due to it being "overtly political" What a crock of poo poo
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Nov 20, 2014 17:23
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Amused to Death posted:So I guess none of the major networks will air the speech due to it being "overtly political" Jesus loving Christ, get me the gently caress out of this place. Like, what else is there to say? Everything about this country is now so transparently in the right-wing's court that no other party had might as well even exist.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:24
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evilweasel posted:There's two groups of people that will care about a shutdown: people who will think "those loving loons" - these people may forget by 2016. There's also people who know undocumented immigrants, who will remember that they shut down the government to try to deport their friend (and also that if a Republican takes the Presidency, that Republican will deport them). I do not expect the latter group to forget as quickly. Would any of the people in the second group have ever considered voting Republican in the absence of a shutdown?
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Nov 20, 2014 17:24
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Alter Ego posted:Only way to help them will probably be an act of CongAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA sorry. B-Rock the Islamic Shock is pretty unpopular right now, airing him will hurt ratings over whatever other bullshit is on.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:24
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Amused to Death posted:So I guess none of the major networks will air the speech due to it being "overtly political" Political networks will not cover political event because it is explicitly political. K.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:26
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Amused to Death posted:B-Rock the Islamic Shock is pretty unpopular right now, airing him will hurt ratings over whatever other bullshit is on. I would think there would be enough angry right wingers watching to justify that.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:27
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I think this is an over reach of executive power and I do not see the upside politically for doing this. I mean, sure it's a really big loving help to immigrants but I think this is just gonna make Republicans go hog wild and smack all this poo poo down and marginalize immigrants even more.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:30
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Doctor Butts posted:I mean, sure it's a really big loving help to immigrants but I think this is just gonna make Republicans go hog wild and smack all this poo poo down and marginalize immigrants even more. That's the point. The President is daring the Republicans to attack him on immigration.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:33
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LemonDrizzle posted:Would any of the people in the second group have ever considered voting Republican in the absence of a shutdown? The issue isn't who they vote for as much as do they vote to begin with. Amused to Death posted:So I guess none of the major networks will air the speech due to it being "overtly political" Eh, I'm not really sure they're wrong on this. What they're saying is they're not going to pre-empt their regular programming not that they won't report on it at all. It's a pretty high bar for what they'll preempt their regular programming for.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:37
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Doctor Butts posted:I think this is an over reach of executive power and I do not see the upside politically for doing this. Force the GOP to do something. Either they attack him and pass their own bill, or they shutdown the government. Or they impeach. 
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Nov 20, 2014 17:37
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Doctor Butts posted:I think this is an over reach of executive power and I do not see the upside politically for doing this. I think it's a big gamble on Obama's part, but I like Josh Marshall's take on it at TPM-- Josh Marshall posted:If there are 5 million people who are affected by this order, the number of people who either have family ties to these individuals or affective relationships with them is much larger. I don't know if it's 15 million or 20 million or 40 million. But it's a lot more than 5 million people who will feel acutely the fate of these people hanging in the balance with the 2016 election. And advocates on both sides of the immigration divide, deporters and pro-immigrant activists will press the issue throughout the 2016 cycle. The 5 million affected can't vote and won't be able to for years. But many family members, friends, community members and employers can. So essentially, it's Obamacare logic all over again. If you can ride out the initial shock, taking it away becomes so painful that it just won't be done*, and the result is better policy--or at least as close to it as you can get in the American political system maybe. With the added incentive that everyone in the GOP primaries will have to out-crazy one another about those damned immigrants and then make an ugly pivot in the general. * Although now Obamacare has to make it through the Supreme Court again, Christ, my heart.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:38
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Doctor Butts posted:I think this is an over reach of executive power and I do not see the upside politically for doing this. They can't smack this down. They also can't marginalize immigrants any more than they already do. Them going hog wild is likely to alienate voters more, and make those voters more likely to vote.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:39
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Amused to Death posted:B-Rock the Islamic Shock is pretty unpopular right now, airing him will hurt ratings over whatever other bullshit is on. They aired Bush when he was at 20%. Nice try.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:41
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CommieGIR posted:Force the GOP to do something. Either they attack him and pass their own bill, or they shutdown the government. What was stopping the Republicans from passing bills before? I know someone was nice enough to link the webpage for the Immigration Policy Matters website (or whatever it was called), but it only seemed to describe the bill itself, not why it didn't go anywhere. Were Republicans (and Democrats) sponsoring bills that never came out of committee or to a vote simply because Republicans didn't want them to? edit: I mean, other than the one bill that failed in the Senate, there were a few other bills out there- but went nowhere. Why? I didn't hear of anything showing why it didn't. Was it obstructed my Republicans or Democrats? Or just pushed to the side by everyone? Doctor Butts fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Nov 20, 2014 |
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Nov 20, 2014 17:41
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Amused to Death posted:So I guess none of the major networks will air the speech due to it being "overtly political" "Liberal media" at it's most finest. So Liberal it won't air a Democratic President's speech about a liberal Executive Order.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:42
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Doctor Butts posted:What was stopping the Republicans from passing bills before? That the House is full of Republicans who do not rely on any hispanic votes whatsoever to win the general, but rely on white nativist votes to win their primary. However the people who take a longer view know that the Presidency is completely out of reach with this approach. The two groups cannot find a satisfactory middle ground and so they can't pass anything.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:44
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Clinton/Castro 2016 is hurtling straight toward us from the future.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:51
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Alter Ego posted:They aired Bush when he was at 20%. Nice try. Bush was different you see, because, stuff and reasons
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Nov 20, 2014 17:51
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The media are as liberal as the Republicans who own them. Rachel Maddow can spend her show linking white supremacists to the GOP's no amnesty stance on immigration, but she's the token to make you think they care about the same things you care about. I'm looking forward to Thanksgiving, because I'm being forced to go to my sister's house and my sister hates me. I figure the animosity being thrown my way will be a nice distraction from worrying about the fallout from the president's announcement tonight. As for what the GOP will do, My money is on shut down the government, Texas sues Obama, and then they impeach him.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:55
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evilweasel posted:That the House is full of Republicans who do not rely on any hispanic votes whatsoever to win the general, but rely on white nativist votes to win their primary. However the people who take a longer view know that the Presidency is completely out of reach with this approach. The two groups cannot find a satisfactory middle ground and so they can't pass anything. Yeah. There's a reason we joke about Boehner drinking and smoking so much. (Mostly, because it's not a joke.) As both a left-leaning Democrat and a lover of hilarious GOP  , I am 100% down with this decision.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:55
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vmn9asN-8AE
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Nov 20, 2014 17:56
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evilweasel posted:That the House is full of Republicans who do not rely on any hispanic votes whatsoever to win the general, but rely on white nativist votes to win their primary. However the people who take a longer view know that the Presidency is completely out of reach with this approach. The two groups cannot find a satisfactory middle ground and so they can't pass anything. Also, this state of affairs dates back to when Bush was in the white house and both the house and senate (108th and 109th congress) were under Republican control. Bush proposed a solution, and it couldn't pass through his own party, even though IIRC it wasn't even all that moderate. Immigration has been a burning issue for a long, long time, and is effectively a major wedge issue inside the Republican party itself, especially with the mostly quiet business wing. I'll 2nd the motion that this will make thanksgiving horrible, but honestly it would have been that way anyways since Republicans took back the Senate.
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Nov 20, 2014 17:58
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Tom Coburn posted:"The country's going to go nuts, because they're going to see it as a move outside the authority of the president, and it's going to be a very serious situation," Coburn said on Capital Download. "You're going to see — hopefully not — but you could see instances of anarchy. ... You could see violence." http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/11/19/usa-today-capital-download-with-tom-coburn/19263969/ 
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Nov 20, 2014 18:04
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Didn't the networks cover Obama's primetime addresses regarding the Affordable Care Act?HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/11/19/usa-today-capital-download-with-tom-coburn/19263969/ Heh, I'd love for Obama's immigration policy to turn this country into an Anarchist society 
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Nov 20, 2014 18:04
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I have to keep reminding myself that if America died every time the GOP said it did, it would have died a thousand times over since Obama took the oath. I mean, at some point you have to step outside your house and say "Hmmm...Obamacare is law and gay marriage is legal in my state, and yet the sky has not fallen."
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Nov 20, 2014 18:06
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Racists going nuts and becoming terrorists because of an immigration policy is unfortunately probably the best thing that could happen to this country at this point, with regards to making progress. Lot's of people would be forced to reconcile a lot of the poo poo they've said and believe and I think it would shock the country into a more proactive and progressive state. Of course, no one is probably really going to lose their poo poo over this, just like no one lost their poo poo over gay marriage and ACA.
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Nov 20, 2014 18:10
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Alter Ego posted:I have to keep reminding myself that if America died every time the GOP said it did, it would have died a thousand times over since Obama took the oath. Says you: 
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Nov 20, 2014 18:10
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