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Alright, I want to try this as a thread. I was listening to last night's episode of the Grantland NFL podcast, and the discussion shifted to the Saints and how they don't have a way to fix this poo poo. We have a team with one of the undisputed top quarterbacks in the league, that signed one of the best free agents available, then traded up in the draft to grab another weapon. So they were basically going all in on this year. That has totally and utterly collapsed and their salary cap situation for next year is worse then the Cowboys'. The cap is expected to be around $140-150m (yesterday leaked as just under $142, but almost every year since the new CBA that number has shot up some millions by March). The Saints are at $160m allocated. So basically, this sounds a lot like the Cowboys of last year, who are a 9 win team and have a Sanchize sized shot of making the playoffs this year. Problem 1: Clear at least $15m in salary cap space to cover rookies & replacements You need about ~$6m in space to sign rookies, and let's go ahead and presume the cap will be a nice even $150m. The Saints have $131m allocated this year, so an even $2m of money will be moved from next year's cap to 2014's. http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints Jahri Evans was specifically mentioned on the podcast. His cap hit is $11m each the next two seasons for a RG, and cutting him frees up $6m in space. I think his play is still pretty solid so *maybe* they can trade him for a late draft pick to a talent starved team with a ton of cap space like the Raiders. Either way, he's probably leaving, and that saves $6m. Marques Colston's cap hit is $9.7m for a 32 year old guy who's going to finish this season around 50 catches / 800 yards. Cutting him saves $4.3m, or convincing him to take a significant pay cut could be an option. There's a ton of other guys with gaudy cap numbers who will need to be told to take a cut or walk. But I'm not that familiar with the Saints' roster Problem 2: Fire Rob Ryan, don't fire Sean Payton Well that was easy. Who do you get to run the defense? Problem 3: Fix the roster gently caress if I know man. Jairus Byrd and 1st round WR Brandin Cooks highlight the IR guys coming back for next year, and I think, considering their salary cap problems, you're going to have to try to figure out whatever's wrong with the once highly touted Kenny Vaccaro, as free agency will probably be limited to trying to get around Bill Belichick and Jerry Jones in the open box specials section. Here's their free agents for next season: http://overthecap.com/free-agency/new-orleans-saints/. I don't think any of these guys are highly sought after, so probably nothing huge here. Do you go the Cowboys route? and just focus on the offense and trust the QB & his weapons to carry a bad defense? The Saints offense is still pretty okay and Drew Brees is still one of the better quarterbacks in the league. They just don't have WR's that can create separation or even really get open against what have been some quite frankly bad defenses. But I mean, you have Drew Brees, these are fixable problems. Or are they just doomed to Falcons it up? as a handful of excellent players on top of a poor roster.
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Dec 10, 2014 17:53
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Kalli posted:Problem 2: Fire Rob Ryan, don't fire Sean Payton The better Ryan brother 
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Dec 10, 2014 17:58
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Intruder posted:The better Ryan brother Works for me 
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Dec 10, 2014 18:11
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I hope they give Rob another shot with a healthy group of guys next year. He turned it around last year and would just be a scapegoat at this point. Like Joe Morgan and (sounds like maybe) Shayne Graham... Don't they still have to work out [Jimmy, not Shayne] Graham's contract, too? Sounds like they won't be able to afford him :|
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Dec 10, 2014 18:47
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They got a contract done with Jimmy once he lost his franchise tag fight. He's locked up for 4 years. I don't follow the Saints that well, but everything I've heard makes it seem like they're blaming Rob Ryan for everything.
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Dec 10, 2014 18:49
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I just looked it up and saw that; don't know how I missed/forgot that. He definitely is taking a lot of blame and reasonably so as the defense is atrocious. There was talk that Payton hates him, too, which he and others have denied but is supported by their sideline interactions. He is probably gone, I just want him to have another chance.
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Dec 10, 2014 18:54
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Isn't it pretty clear that Rob Ryan is bad at this point? I'm phone posting but the overall trend for his defenses has been pretty poor.
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Dec 10, 2014 18:58
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I think if you really want to analyze what went wrong with the Saints you have to go back to the Mark Ingram draft pick. He wasn't a position of need, he hasn't performed well at all, and they gave up a boatload to get him. Due to the Drew Brees situation with his cap/age, you don't have a lot of money to address the holes on the team, and they haven't really done that through the draft. Toss in a massive bust FA, an overrated defensive coordinator, and an inability to replace players they're losing, and there you have it. On defense, Cam Jordan is a hoss and that's about it, depending on how you feel about Galette. Vaccaro has regressed horribly, and Byrd was terrible before he got cut. I think a lot of this was by design. If they sold out on a couple of places, and assumed they'd have a powerful offense supporting them, they could get away with cheaping out on defense and letting Rob Ryan go blitz happy (who does this sound like?) Unlike the Falcons, however, I think their problems on offense actually are the skill position players. Colston is aging and they really haven't found a replacement for him. Stills and Toon are still developing, and they're not anywhere near ready to carry the load. Their running game isn't picking up the slack, and Graham is probably playing injured. So you have this weird situation where a team with an aging star QB sold out everything to win a terrible division and flamed out just as badly. Eventually they're going to have to blow it all up, it's just a matter of when, and how much they want it to hurt. I don't know if the Saints really want Loomis and co hiring the next phase, and who knows if Payton even wants to be around for it. That team on Sunday completely quit. Even assuming that the Panthers starting 2 rookies in the secondary was actually an improvement, there's no reason they shouldn't have hung 50 up on Rivera's defense. The right answer to fixing them is to cut as much dead weight as possible and rebuild through the draft, but you can't really do that with Brees' timeline. How can you cut Jahri Evans? He's the best blocker on the team, and was the only bright spot against the Panthers on sunday. Do you get rid of Graham? You don't have anyone ready to replace Colston even though he's decrepit. Get back at the Falcons for Joe Horn and make a move for Roddy White? Maybe the best thing for the team moving forward is deciding the window closed a season earlier than expected.
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Dec 10, 2014 19:28
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Dirt Worshipper posted:Isn't it pretty clear that Rob Ryan is bad at this point? I'm phone posting but the overall trend for his defenses has been pretty poor. I feel like he comes to a team, gets everyone fired up and has an alright year, then it all falls apart. It's also kind of weird knowing that Jerry Jones was probably right to fire him, even if they replaced him with Monte Kiffin and then failed miserably.
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Dec 10, 2014 19:33
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This was written after week 1 of this year. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2014/film-room-saints-defensive-schemes
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Dec 10, 2014 19:45
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At the very least the team needs to address the fact that secondary and linebacker play over the past 3-4 years has been abysmal. The only guys that can tackle worth a drat are guys brought in from other orgs. I don't know what it takes to address that, but it's been persistent across two to three different DCs now and a lot of different players. Maybe the FO just has a knack for picking guys that can't tackle, I don't know. Sometimes I think Marshawn Lynch put a curse on the defense They have 4 losses by 3 points or less and if the defense could learn to tackle and not give up Big Plays all the drat time then maybe the Saints are 9-4 or 8-5 and nobody is really having this conversation. Or at least that's what I like to fantasize about. Anyway, the optimist in me thinks that they can compete next year with roughly the same personnel, but if it's not next season then it's not really going to happen at all for this iteration of the team.
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Dec 10, 2014 21:15
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Dirt Worshipper posted:This was written after week 1 of this year. I don't know much about football but, quote:Byrd was signed to be the perfect complement to Vaccaro. Both are versatile players, but Byrd primarily excels as a deep safety while Vaccaro does his best work when he lines up closer to the line of scrimmage. With Rob Ryan as the team's defensive coordinator, this secondary should have allowed the defense as a whole to flourish. I remember reading some respected analyst (maybe Greg Cosell?) suggesting a few years ago that the new pass-happy NFL requires defenses to have jack-of-all-trades safeties that are equally comfortable playing deep or at the LOS. Like, two above-average safeties that can do both is better than two great safeties that are sorta pigeonholed into FS/SS. This is so coverages can be disguised better. I'm not sure if there are examples of teams out there doing this successfully, I know Seattle instead has gotten a lot of mileage out of specializing Earl and Kam's roles, but I just thought that was interesting in regards to the Saints' Byrd/Vaccaro setup
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Dec 10, 2014 22:32
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Pron on VHS posted:I don't know much about football but, Well, kind of. Seattle generally drops Thomas back and Chancellor is more in the box usually, but both are gifted enough to swap roles once in awhile to switch it up - and they do this from time to time. They do it both pre-snap and after the snap. Seattle is lucky in that they can get away with it when they feel like screwing things around with the offense.
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Dec 11, 2014 03:59
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The fans should raise money to get Drew Brees to leave the franchise.
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Dec 11, 2014 03:59
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Detroit_Dogg posted:The fans should raise money to get Drew Brees to leave the franchise. he only has a couple years left so send him somewhere with a garbage o-line so i can get a couple more seasons of enjoyment watching him get sacked to death
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Dec 11, 2014 04:09
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Detroit_Dogg posted:The fans should raise money to get Drew Brees to leave the franchise.
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Dec 11, 2014 04:43
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achillesforever6 posted:Maybe the Saints should rebrand themselves, go with light purple uniforms and have their mascot be Johnny Gat This is how you win life. Would literally be the best thing. Please do this Saints. Anita Dickinme fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Dec 11, 2014 |
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Dec 11, 2014 04:59
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I think the best course of action is sacrificing Garrett Hartley on an altar because gently caress YOU HOW DID YOU ALWAYS MISS CLUTCH FIELD GOALS AGAINST DIVISION RIVALS WHY DID WE KEEP YOU SO LONG Shayne Graham is a good kicker though. We need to keep him
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Dec 11, 2014 16:30
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Spintzel posted:I think the best course of action is sacrificing Garrett Hartley on an altar because gently caress YOU HOW DID YOU ALWAYS MISS CLUTCH FIELD GOALS AGAINST DIVISION RIVALS WHY DID WE KEEP YOU SO LONG quote:Free agent K Garrett Hartley worked out for the Saints on Wednesday.
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Dec 11, 2014 16:48
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Yeah, yeah. quote:After kicker tryouts, New Orleans Saints sticking with Shayne Graham
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Dec 12, 2014 05:06
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Ha ha, the Saints will be lucky to win one more game this season.
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Dec 12, 2014 05:08
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I think they should just send Brees to Gitmo to getting rectally refreshed. Should come back with a new perspective on things.
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Dec 12, 2014 06:19
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A.o.D. posted:Ha ha, the Saints will be lucky to win one more game this season. Which will be enough to win their division and go to the playoffs. What did you say fans of teams with winning records? I couldn't hear you over getting home field in the first round of the playoffs
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Dec 12, 2014 06:55
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Fixing the Saints? I'm not in favor of it.
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Dec 12, 2014 07:00
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shiksa posted:Fixing the Saints? I am if it prevents them going into heat.
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Dec 12, 2014 07:30
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Dirt Worshipper posted:This was written after week 1 of this year. Rob Ryan added a ton of complexity to their schemes in the pre-season and literally no one knew what the gently caress he was talking about. They dropped the schemes that this article points out (thank loving god), and dropped most of the blitzing from their gameplanning soon after because it was basically giving up a TD every play. Starting Week 3 the scheme was changed to coverage with almost no blitzing and they took out almost all of the checks and audibles; it made their film easier to trash up and counter but at least people were loving covered. They won 4 of their next 6 games, losing Byrd two days before the Tampa game and having like half the offense and defense leave injured during that game. Team looked passable at that point until losing Bush as well, because with no DBs past Keenan Lewis (who is loving amazingly good, but has twig legs and every receiver can push him around and apparently never get called on it, so it becomes a bit of a liability now when Sammy Watkins just tosses his rear end out of the way in front of a ref and nothing gets called; see also: Boldin. not pictured: Jimmy Graham). They were already bad, but now it's just horrible. It's actually not 2011 bad, because Will Smith and Grant were worse, and basically the only position in which we fielded better players in 2011 may have been our #2 corner. quote:Problem 1: Clear at least $15m in salary cap space to cover rookies & replacements 1. Extend Brees two years, convert salary into bonus and pay him ~19 mil/year for those years with a poison pill for injury in the last year to basically match Manning's contract stips. Frees up about 6 million assuming the previous bonus cap rollover holds. 2. Cut Colston. They're not going to cut Grubbs or Evans because Brees isn't worth poo poo if teams can break up the middle every single play, particularly because of his height. It's a package deal but the flip side is you can hopefully cheap out on a center since he's got two pro bowl guys next to him. Colston, however, is done. And you can say there's no one in the wings but it's not like he's even pulling #1 DB attention anymore, and he wasn't that quick to begin with. He's basically Anquan Boldin right now, and while some people might love Boldin, that's because their horrible WRs make him look good. Colston is paid 1.6 mil/year more than Boldin on current terms, so no man, sorry. A pay cut might keep him around if he's willing to drop 2 mil/year. Total saved: 10.3 mil 3. Most of the hubub about their cap hit is a specifically designed contract with Galette that has him paid 12.5 mil in base salary with 5 years left on his contract. Most of that is for converting into bonus to free up cap space, with the safety net that if the team blew up they could dump as much of his cap hit into next year as possible since they're so big on him (he's been "ok" this year). Converting that base to bonus should drop his cap hit to about 4.5 million, so that would open up 8.5 more, total: 18.5. And we only lost Colston. It's bad but Galette's contract is why it looks so abhorrent and it's incredibly team friendly. There are other concerns I have, but I'm going to bed now, so we can discuss how we should cut Pierre Thomas but also not sign Ingram so we'll have no RBs on a team that last year carried 5.
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Dec 12, 2014 07:46
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Barnwell ends up writing a column about the Saints salary cap issues that covers most of what's been mentioned, including stuff about moving Galette's and Byrd's roster bonus money into future guaranteed money to create space. Then a counterpoint from ESPN's saints guy, Mike Triplett, that touches on a few other things they can do: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-orleans-saints/post/_/id/12144/saints-in-salary-cap-hell-going-forward
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Dec 12, 2014 22:12
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The reality is that most of the cuts they had to make were actually last year, but their entire plan hinges on Galette, Byrd, and Vaccarro being great. Past that the center they intend to use is on the roster and they need a better RT than Strief. We have no RBs because we will cut PT. Our WR will be Graham, Stills, and Cooks and arguably those three guys are good, but we lack a tall possession receiver like Colston(because they thought they'd have Colston) so the answer is the depth guys they like, or drafting a big slow guy who can catch and block (I wanted Mike Evans last year, for instance). On defense they can extend Jordan and bonus him out to hope he plays more like last year. I like Jordan at a cheap price so maybe his bad year will work out for us? Who knows. We cut cut Bunkley but they probably like Hicks/Bunkley if only for depth. Anything we could sign at LB would be an upgrade over our worst two options, so I'd draft there basically (or RT). We need a DB like mad, and drafting a DB is basically always dumb, so I'd go as far as go say I'd be fine with a pick trade for a player from a different team. Every TH we draft sucks. Every DB we sign is excellent. Just pay to offset our horrible ability to pick DBs. E: the biggest catch in all of this is while I can conceive swinging a serviceable team in the future, there's going to be no depth at all when someone gets injured. MJBuddy fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Dec 12, 2014 |
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Dec 12, 2014 22:33
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A.o.D. posted:Ha ha, the Saints will be lucky to win one more game this season. They will definitely crush the Bears on Monday.
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Dec 14, 2014 01:50
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R.D. Mangles posted:They will definitely crush the Bears on Monday. This is an ironic statement.
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Dec 14, 2014 02:41
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Spintzel posted:Which will be enough to win their division and go to the playoffs. Home field for the Saints this year is almost a guaranteed loss so...
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Dec 14, 2014 21:35
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Quiet Feet posted:Home field for the Saints this year is almost a guaranteed loss so... Yeah it's almost like when you split a small sample size into smaller sample sizes, completely specious conclusions get drawn by idiots.
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Dec 15, 2014 05:30
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Yeah the Saints aren't losing because they're playing at home. they're losing because they're awful (note the Panthers are also awful)
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Dec 15, 2014 13:38
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And last year the offense didn't suck because the offense sucked on the road. They sucked because they had the hardest road defense schedule in the league by a mile. This year? They're bad. Hopefully better than Chicago.
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Dec 15, 2014 16:45
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MJBuddy posted:This year? They're bad. Hopefully better than Chicago. Can the Saints offense move the ball for more than one and a half quarters, or before they are down by three touchdowns?
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Dec 15, 2014 16:47
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The Saints offense also struggled last year @Atlanta and @Tampa Bay. It wasn't just when they were going up against elite defenses. JGdmn posted:Can the Saints offense move the ball for more than one and a half quarters, or before they are down by three touchdowns? They couldn't last week.
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Dec 15, 2014 16:48
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FizFashizzle posted:The Saints offense also struggled last year @Atlanta and @Tampa Bay. Tampa was a top 7 defense, so yeah.
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Dec 15, 2014 16:50
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good lord that lovely defense was 8th in dvoa? edit* upon looking at the FOA, the two saints corners not named Revis were giving up 8 yards a pass. You'd think Brees would be able to exploit that.
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Dec 15, 2014 16:54
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FizFashizzle posted:good lord that lovely defense was 8th in dvoa? Tampas LB is pretty good. Likely shut down Graham. Past that? The game took place during a tropical storm basically so every pass just got tossed everywhere and the game was delayed for rain.
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Dec 15, 2014 17:01
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MJBuddy posted:Tampas LB is pretty good. Likely shut down Graham. Past that? The game took place during a tropical storm basically so every pass just got tossed everywhere and the game was delayed for rain. same thing that happened in Carolina then. What was the excuse for Atlanta?
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Dec 15, 2014 17:07
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