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Everblight posted:Total gems on the marketplace is now 500 fewer in total than it was 10 minutes ago, the first time I've seen the total number available lessen. Additionally, in real dollars gems are up 6c in the last 30 minutes after trending slightly down all morning. I gotta assume there are Steamspergs out there that aren't going to let any auction drop below 1000 gems, but I'm gonna keep hope alive with my 3 paltry bids spun from my loose, unsackable gems (#19 on one of them!). The 45 minute turnaround improve the odds for patient types. Hopefully it'll be enough.
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Dec 15, 2014 17:55
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Zombie Samurai posted:I gotta assume there are Steamspergs out there that aren't going to let any auction drop below 1000 gems
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Dec 15, 2014 18:02
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I'm sure people will get retarded and instead of waiting for their bid to come up they'll try be jumping the queue bidding in the last moments. To fight this you'll probably have to have a big enough bid that will eat whatever amount of gems those snipers will try to raise. You will also most likely fail, just like on e-bay with a hundred participatants.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:05
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Or the whole process will flame out, as gems are now at 11k total available and 92c a bag. Side note: this now means 9c/background is an arbitrage opportunity.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:08
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Yeah, gem prices are rising fast.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:10
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Palpek posted:Yeah, gem prices are rising fast. jim_cramer.jpg
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Dec 15, 2014 18:13
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Xander77 posted:Yup. All the people with 10 gem bids on indie games who are now around #40 are kidding themselves. Yeah if all 100 copies went to the top 100 bidders at 0hour then it would be one thing, but the way it is no body is getting those
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Dec 15, 2014 18:18
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Zombie Samurai posted:I gotta assume there are Steamspergs out there that aren't going to let any auction drop below 1000 gems, but I'm gonna keep hope alive with my 3 paltry bids spun from my loose, unsackable gems (#19 on one of them!). The 45 minute turnaround improve the odds for patient types. Hopefully it'll be enough. I think we're going to see around 3000 gems as the floor for any auction, but that's just a guess.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:21
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Arnold of Soissons posted:Yeah if all 100 copies went to the top 100 bidders at 0hour then it would be one thing, but the way it is no body is getting those Gone Home high bid for auction #4 down to 5200. Looks like we were right about people not seriously bidding on anything other than AAA new releases. Another perverse thing we'll see, as gems are now under 10k units at large and drifting over 96c per, is people will start cancelling bids to get their gems back to sell them. I'm certainly considering it.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:21
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There's always the chance that people wake up and stop paying $17 for Spore. It's probably the level 3 badge most people are buying though.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:21
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$1.00 gem bags are a reality.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:26
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I reeeeeeeeeally want to believe supply is going to run out before demand does and there's going to be a narrow window where gem bags are going for like $10 before idiots start canceling their bids. More realistically it's going to happen, like, now.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:29
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Everblight posted:$1.00 gem bags are a reality. They would have to hit ~$1.16 to make 10c backgrounds profitable... Mayhaps.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:30
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Looks like everyone decided $1.00 gem bags was patently insane and they're falling again. Alternately, a bunch of dead-man's triggers just flipped on the bot army and all the 9c backgrounds are now gone, injecting new gems to the economy. EDIT: Yep, there's 1500 new bags and a 5c drop. Botnet on this poo poo. Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Dec 15, 2014 |
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Dec 15, 2014 18:39
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I feel like none of the bids moved at all between this round and last.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:40
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kater posted:I feel like none of the bids moved at all between this round and last. Probably because the real high bids were much higher. And the system put it at the lower bid + 100 or whatever the treshold is.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:45
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Without any effort on my part, I've gone from #52 to #51 in Gone Home, so that means that people are definitely taking their ~3000 gem bids and turning them into dollars (smart, really).
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Dec 15, 2014 18:45
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Part of me wants to craft 1000 gems from some foils I still have, and price it at vEdit: Yeah, that's better. Downs Duck fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Dec 15, 2014 |
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Dec 15, 2014 18:47
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Downs Duck posted:Part of me wants to craft 1000 gems from some foils I still have, and price it at $1000 or so, just to see if anyone's having their first Steam Event playing with bots. What bot is going to keep 1000 USD in their account? Price it at 100 at the most.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:51
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Oh sweet I got an email saying I won a bid on sproggiwood or whatever. Just set to #2 last night, figured it would drop. Now hoping for my others.
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Dec 15, 2014 18:53
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Man I'm really glad I bought some bags of gems at .72 cents. Kicking myself for only buying 20 of them at the time. Still, if I sold them at 1 dollar a bag, I'd be up 6 bucks or thereabouts. Not half bad really. Think I'm going to wait a bit longer to see if the gem prices on the market keep trending up though. This is basically just penny stock trading though.
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Dec 15, 2014 19:06
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Cat Army 
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The Iron Rose posted:Man I'm really glad I bought some bags of gems at .72 cents. Kicking myself for only buying 20 of them at the time. Still, if I sold them at 1 dollar a bag, I'd be up 6 bucks or thereabouts. Not half bad really. Think I'm going to wait a bit longer to see if the gem prices on the market keep trending up though. Well, bags sold for a dollar only net you 84c, so you'd be up about $1.50, so don't feel too bad. Gone Home Update: Next lowest bid was 5100. I'm assuming a bunch of people are crowded around the 5000 gem mark, then it's gonna be casuals under 1000, so my bid should stand at the ~50 mark.
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Dec 15, 2014 19:10
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Everblight posted:Well, bags sold for a dollar only net you 84c, so you'd be up about $1.50, so don't feel too bad. I'm dumb and forgot to take into account steam's percentage 
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Dec 15, 2014 19:11
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The big bids are going down but when the prices go down to a couple of k it should get crowded.
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Dec 15, 2014 19:14
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Someone smarter than me explain why the total supply of gems is going up but the prices are creeping back towards $1.
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Dec 15, 2014 19:18
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Zombie Samurai posted:Someone smarter than me explain why the total supply of gems is going up but the prices are creeping back towards $1.
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Dec 15, 2014 19:21
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Zombie Samurai posted:Someone smarter than me explain why the total supply of gems is going up but the prices are creeping back towards $1. It's not complicated. Demand is spiking hard increasing the price which is driving a lot more people to put bags into the market. Things will even out again, but I won't be shocked if we see 40 minute cycles of behavior with $1 per gem bag being the a psychological threshold that halts the demand for them.
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Dec 15, 2014 19:23
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Gone Home update: After moving from 52 to 51, I'm now down to 53, with literally no input on my part. The machine is moving on its own, people are shifting gems around, some liquidating, some bidding up. Palpek's got it that it's gonna get crowded at the 1k mark.
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Dec 15, 2014 19:38
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Everblight posted:Gone Home update: After moving from 52 to 51, I'm now down to 53, with literally no input on my part. The machine is moving on its own, people are shifting gems around, some liquidating, some bidding up. Palpek's got it that it's gonna get crowded at the 1k mark. 1k is a buck. For a lot of these games the low sale price (except for bundles) is 3-5$ I'm hoping to pick some up for 2-5k. If I get anything for cheaper than that it's gravy.
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Dec 15, 2014 19:42
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The real question is how many gems exist as unsmelted backgrounds/icons, and with them evaporating at a breakneck pace, will there be enough to go around without breaking the $1/bag barrier? EDIT:  someone is still paying $70 for CS:GO, even after 4 auctions have closed.EDIT EDIT: The sniping has started. "OG Petty Thug" had the high bid on Gone Home at 5,100; last auction just closed with someone else winning, "OG Petty Thug"'s bid of 5,100 still the high. Gone Home drops to $5 with some regularity, so this is about right. I wonder if people (smart people) are going to bid gems in amounts equal to what the historic low is just to get things they want at their suspected low Winter Sale price? EDIT EDIT EDIT: For people that have won something, is it added to your library or added to your inventory (this is SUPER IMPORTANT for bots/trading algorithms); if it's added to your inventory and tagged as tradeable (even after 30 days) then their price now is basically the lowest anything's going to go, as bots snipe the poo poo out of everything to trade later. Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Dec 15, 2014 |
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Dec 15, 2014 19:44
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Everblight posted:EDIT EDIT EDIT: For people that have won something, is it added to your library or added to your inventory (this is SUPER IMPORTANT for bots/trading algorithms); if it's added to your inventory and tagged as tradeable (even after 30 days) then their price now is basically the lowest anything's going to go, as bots snipe the poo poo out of everything to trade later. It's added to your inventory. You cannot trade it but you can gift it.
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Dec 15, 2014 19:55
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Everblight posted:The real question is how many gems exist as unsmelted backgrounds/icons, and with them evaporating at a breakneck pace, will there be enough to go around without breaking the $1/bag barrier? Ive still got all my Valve 100 gem crap, even the stupid trading card emotes 
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Dec 15, 2014 19:58
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Arnold of Soissons posted:Ive still got all my Valve 100 gem crap, even the stupid trading card emotes Sell, sell, sell! (if you want to  )
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Dec 15, 2014 20:05
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Everblight posted:
Didn't win(or even bet), but this what won game looks like  Drops to inventory, but not tradeable, can only be gifted
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Dec 15, 2014 20:05
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Yesterday I bid 100 and 40 gems on two games, and that put me at around #60 on each of them. Today after around 5 rounds I'm now at #82 on both. People are raising their loving bids.
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Dec 15, 2014 20:05
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AlmightyBob posted:Yesterday I bid 100 and 40 gems on two games, and that put me at around #60 on each of them. Today after around 5 rounds I'm now at #82 on both. People are raising their loving bids. ... well, duh?
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Dec 15, 2014 20:07
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I ended up getting Raetikon Soundtrack Edition for 3100 gems. I can live with that since the lowest price it's been at is $4.99 for the game and $7.49 for the soundtrack version (the one on auction). Roughly spent like $2.58 for it and got to resell my extra 1000 gems back on the market at $0.96. I'm done with the auction. Bring on the actual steam sale. e: Also that game is staying in the sub 3000 gem range for the most part, I was pushed up to 3100 by the current top bidder).
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Dec 15, 2014 20:08
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I feel like I'm missing something, or maybe I'm just approaching this a different way (or maybe I'm just lazy)? I know I'm just going to buy the games I really want (and since most of them are more well-known and popular, they're likely to get stupid-high bids from people in this auction anyway). The approach I took was this: 1) Sold all my cards for gems. 2) Went through the list of games, starting from p. 135 and working backwards, and put low-gem bids on a bunch of games that I thought sounded interesting. I stopped somewhere around p. 60 when things started getting mostly stupid expensive. 3) Checked to see where I was in the current bid ranking for the games I had bids on. If I was in the 90s somewhere and it was something I was really interested in, I either raised the bid enough to get me somewhere in the middle of the pack, or else cancelled, figuring it would be cheaper to just buy it. 4) Right now I have 36 games with bids. On all of them I'm roughly in the middle of the current 1-100 ranking. (Edit: I only have one game with a >100 gem bid.) 5) I'll take a couple of minutes nightly to check, and if I'm getting into the 90s bid-range on any games, I'll cancel some and redistribute. Should take 5 minutes. I probably spent an hour, total, and there's a decent(?) chance I'll get some free games when the dust settles. It seems like people are spending large amounts of time and effort trying to game the system and the economy, and that's obviously fine, but it also seems like some of those people are griping about how worthless the whole thing is and how much it sucks and  at Steam/Gabe/life in general.If you're pissed off and not having fun, then you probably need to unclench, and/or just do something else. aas Bandit fucked around with this message at 20:16 on Dec 15, 2014 |
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Dec 15, 2014 20:08
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If you want to talk about strategic bidding, the smart gems are going to be around 1100. People love their even numbers, and to most people, 1 sack = 1 game's worth of gems. I'm gonna say that's probably the price floor. Man, every 45 minutes hundreds of thousands of gems are just evaporating as auctions close, but the gems in circulation isn't dropping. People are smelting like crazy it seems. EDIT: Just on the most-expensive page (I'm sure it drops off after that) a million gems (1,000 bags, or ~8% of all gems on the marketplace) are evaporating every 45 minutes. I'm tempted to buy into gems seriously if they're gonna spike. We might see $2 bags soon, making 10c wallpapers +EV again. Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Dec 15, 2014 |
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Dec 15, 2014 20:09
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Won Sproggiwood! All in all, cost me around $5 worth of gems when I was getting them for $0.30 per 1000. Successful start to a sale in my book.
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