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Holy poo poo, it's 2015. It's THE FUTURE. And you know what's in the future? Fancy loving Stats. BASICS: Fenwick: Shots + Missed Shots (sometimes called unblocked shot attempts) Corsi: Shots + Shots Blocked + Missed Shots (sometimes called shot attempts) Fenwick assumes that blocking shots is a skill that may reduce the likelihood of a goal against. Corsi assumes that whether or not a shot is blocked does not matter: it is treated as any other shot attempt. The point of Fenwick and Corsi is to act as a proxy for possession. People argue about which is better, but the difference is generally small. Corsi has an advantage of having a larger sample size. PDO: This is the sum of team save percentage and team shooting percentage. League-wide, this sums to 1 per team, per definition. A PDO above 1 is considered to be "lucky", and teams are expected to regress to 1, but in rare cases it may actually represent a higher-than-average shooting percentage and/or a higher-than-average save percentage as a result of team and/or goalie skill. Fancy stats for the season per NaturalStatTrick:  Yes, Buffalo is that bad. TWITTER: A lot of good fancy statsing is happening on Twitter. This guy posts past-25 games score-adjusted Corsi every day (psst this is good for betting) along with other things like President's trophy favourites: http://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath  This guy posts.. stuff. Like the following, but also other things. Beaulieu is good I guess? Just go look, I don't really know what he does yet: http://twitter.com/MimicoHero  This guy runs hockeystats.ca and is often involved in fancy stats conversations: http://twitter.com/theninjagreg WEBSITES: Real time stats per game: http://hockeystats.ca/. An example:  spoiler: the Canucks won. Something called "score affects" may have affected the above graph, where the trailing team is expected to have more shot attempts than the leading team, as the leading team is sitting back and holding the lead. Season stats: http://www.naturalstattrick.com/ http://www.puckalytics.com/ http://www.behindthenet.ca/ http://war-on-ice.com/ This one has score-adjusted corsi which is kind of a new thing: http://www.puckon.net/ There's lots I'm forgetting. Please give me links to add! Also, like, people will be playing hockey this year. I guess. Whatever. note to mods: I'm allowed to image leech from Twitter now, right? Since, you know, future. If not please tell me and I'll rehost. toe knee hand fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Jan 2, 2015 |
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Jan 1, 2015 10:47
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Albino Squirrel posted:1) Fancystats don't capture the quality of every shot. So the Oilers may get an equivalent amount of shot attempts off, but that doesn't really matter if you a) fail to pinch and let in an ungodly number of odd-man rushes, or b) completely poo poo the bed on your defensive zone play (see: Jultzing) Yea, some goalies are legitimately better than other goalies. There's also always a lot of argument about team systems and defensive quality and their impact on save %, with (not addressing you, just adding on to this post) For PDO, most teams will end up finishing the season within the 0.98-1.02 range. But there's usually some outliers. Possession stats like CF% are better predictors of future success than win % or goals for % (which implicitly allow PDO to matter rather than assuming it will henceforth be 1 for every team), maybe because for every team that's just not good there's two teams that have actually been really unlucky, but of course they're not perfect. toe knee hand fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Jan 1, 2015 |
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Jan 1, 2015 19:12
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And this is a thought I had about Corsi: it works as a stat because hockey players and people who run hockey teams don't really believe in it. If a team decided to really buy in to Corsi, and to just take as many shots as possible instead of setting up good shots, they probably wouldn't be very good. But because hockey players and hockey systems care about puck movement and traffic in front of the net and other things that make a shot more likely to go in, Corsi usually works.
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Jan 1, 2015 19:23
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So Zack Kassian is no longer injured, but he'll be a healthy scratch tonight.
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Jan 1, 2015 20:38
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Chasiubao posted:We have to be fascinated, otherwise we have to have the stupid discussion about who won the trade for Hodgson Just call 'em both busts. But I agree that Kassian could be a perfectly serviceable third liner.
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Jan 3, 2015 04:00
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It was actually an entertaining game, good hockey. The ice wasn't terrible and the weather stayed out of the way (not too hot/cold/windy/blizzard).
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Jan 3, 2015 17:38
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Starsfan posted:The Stars hockey team is really playing strong right now. Outshooting the Blackhawks at even strength on the 2nd night of a back to back is a huge accomplishment. Chill. You don't buyout a goalie who has been above league average as a starter for the last three years just because he's having an off year. What most teams would do, is they'd let their backup get more games in, or some promising prospect from the AHL. Unfortunately for the Stars, all of those options are terrible.
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Jan 5, 2015 04:53
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grack posted:GDT is up if anyone cares about the titanic game between the Devils and Sabres bet it gets more posts than sharks and jets
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Jan 7, 2015 02:53
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goalies who are good in junior/other leagues may or may not be good in the nhl goalies who are bad in junior/other leagues will probably not be good in the nhl but they also could be because goalies, man. loving goalies. that's really all that needs to be said on the matter.
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Jan 7, 2015 02:55
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tofes posted:I am honored to have created the least popular GDT in SAS' history the circumstances aligned, and you did your job perfectly, including the requisite reference to a broadway musical. one might have thought that it would need a carolina vs arizona matchup, but no, no one would have even made a gdt then. toe knee hand fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jan 7, 2015 |
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Jan 7, 2015 03:10
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Vicas posted:Since the shootout's inception I wonder how many teams have gone a calendar year without a win from it I'd talk to New Jersey.
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Jan 7, 2015 04:06
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Fozzie Bear posted:I'm surprised that Toronto is ranked so low to be honest, Carlyle (and before him Wilson) said a few times that they didn't mind being outshot as long as the shots they did take were good quality. This is both pleasing and not surprising in the slightest. Calgary too.
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Jan 8, 2015 21:10
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:NHL.com has an article up about Aaron Ekblad. Some excerpts: Do remember that he's playing with Brian Campbell, who over the years has managed to make a number of mediocre defensemen look really good (e.g. Tom Gilbert, Jason Garrison). Ekblad's CF% without Campbell is a horrid 41%, though it's a small 110 minute sample. Though of course, those guys weren't 18 year olds.
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Jan 9, 2015 23:20
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I guess Jimmy Howard is an elite goalie after all.
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Jan 11, 2015 00:06
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Erik Karlsson missing too. Some odd choices there on D.
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Jan 11, 2015 00:13
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CBJSprague24 posted:Without actually putting names with teams, do they still try to put at least one player from each team in? It would explain some omissions, but I don't think they took anybody from Columbus in 2012 at all (not like they deserved to go). Yea, and that definitely explains Faulk, Johnson and Suter, who probably shouldn't be there but are also the best candidates from their teams.
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Jan 11, 2015 00:26
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darkwolf220 posted:Vrbata gets the call instead of either of the Sedins. Hmm. The Vrbata pick doesn't surprise me, he's leading the team in all sorts of things and the Sedins aren't having great years (good, not great), even if they're largely to credit for his numbers. Johnson doesn't play with Stamkos (not even on the powerplay), he plays with Kucherov and Ondrej Palat. That line has been really really good. toe knee hand fucked around with this message at 01:16 on Jan 11, 2015 |
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Jan 11, 2015 01:14
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Hand Knit posted:Reminder that we did this. We only have ourselves to blame. Would also help if there weren't five Blackhawks.
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Jan 11, 2015 01:31
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ThinkTank posted:I think you're giving the Allstar voters a bit too much credit there. They sayw "Vrbata many goals, Sedins less many goals ergo Vrbata to Allstar game." No way man. Henrik passed.
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Jan 11, 2015 03:07
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fits posted:Guess whats back, baby 2014-2015 is the Year of the Communicable Disease
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Jan 11, 2015 03:51
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goldrush posted:I thought players weren't allowed to decline unless they were injured? Wasn't there a big stink about that a few years ago when some invited players decided to sit out the ASG and the NHL got all mad? Guys. You guys. Henrik passed. Do you get it yet?
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Jan 11, 2015 04:31
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tofes posted:What the gently caress? Brent Burns is an middling defenseman at best, I guess no one else on the Sharks wanted to travel to Columbus. Yea I wouldn't have taken Burns. I wouldn't have taken Suter. I'd have taken Thornton and Pominville as those teams' reps and then filled those D spots with Subban and Karlsson, and maybe removed Ryan for someone else (what F got snubbed the worst?).
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Jan 11, 2015 05:12
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LmaoTheKid posted:Regardless of their record I thought the Kings and Sharks played the Rangers pretty hard. Neither of those games felt like a cakewalk by any means. I'll admit I don't know a whole lot about the west though. Yea I'm not sure about the Sharks but the Kings are still really good at home, they've just been very inconsistent (mainly bad) on the road. Very few teams sweep California road trips, even this year, so it's impressive the Rangers pulled it off.
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Jan 11, 2015 07:09
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ElwoodCuse posted:It's not like he's Beau Bennett Has anyone ever seen those two
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Jan 13, 2015 01:59
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Pornographic Memory posted:Pouliot probably needs more AHL time to develop defensively and maybe even offensively too, I'm guessing Dumoulin or Harrington would be called up before him I saw Pouliot in the WHL a lot last year and I was surprised they called him up. Last year in the WHL, against weaker competition, he often looked pretty bad in his own zone. His offensive play more than made up for it at that level, but I thought he'd struggle at first in pro hockey and would probably need a couple years in the AHL. I didn't see him at all in the AHL, but with the Pens he didn't look as bad as I thought he would, so maybe he's made progress already or his weaknesses just weren't amplified in the NHL like I thought they'd be.
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Jan 13, 2015 05:07
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grack posted:So apparently Gadreau filed a Trademark application for "Johnny Hockey" He's just saving other people from misspelling his last name.
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Jan 14, 2015 01:50
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Bill Hoppe @BillHoppeNHL 44m #Sabres Tyler Ennis on fans: "That they’re not booing louder and throwing things on the ice shows how nice they are." Buffalonians: nicer than Canadians.
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Jan 16, 2015 04:59
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Pleads posted:Florida brings a large Canadian contingent for Luongo and maybe Ekblad. I'd watch Lu go for a Cup. Canada watches regardless. The NHL doesn't care about ratings here.
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Jan 17, 2015 07:41
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This is really cool http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/live-inside-hockey-night-in-canada-control-room/
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Jan 18, 2015 02:18
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Points since Season Not Played: EDM 682: CAR: 802 BUF: 820 TOR: 772 This is not the bottom 4 or anything, just the ones I bothered to find out. And I'd rather be a fan of team that made the playoffs a couple times and then had a few abysmal years than one that just barely missed the playoffs all the time, so looking at point totals obscures things.
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Jan 21, 2015 22:43
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Guignol posted:am I the only one who thinks this is a good idea It's part of a potential AHL West. Unfortunately the rest of AHL West hasn't been finalised so it may not be more than 2 or 3 teams. Alternatively it could be 5. The downsides are travel, which would be drastically reduced if there are more AHL West teams. They'd get great attendance and they'd be super close to the Sharks. They'd be a long loving way away from most of the other AHL teams though, and from the Sharks when they're playing out east if the minisharks are not out east at the same time. Overall, I think it's great, but be aware of the downsides. I feel based on the post you were quoting that I should note that Edmonton and Calgary share their arenas with WHL teams, but they did not decide it was a good idea to do so with their AHL affiliates, or they didn't want to shake things up or they're incompetent or whatever. AHL travel is a bitch if you're far away from everything else c.f. Abbotsford Heat, St. John's Ice Caps. toe knee hand fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Jan 22, 2015 |
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Jan 22, 2015 05:20
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Ginette Reno posted:I thought Pouliot looked real good and the fancy stats agree! He was 61% CF at ES (highest Pen's defenseman) while the Pens were 52%. e: oh we should probably be in GDT
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Jan 22, 2015 06:47
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so, PK or Karlsson?
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Jan 23, 2015 04:16
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This All-Star game is the first including a player from these draft years: 2011 - Nugent-Hopkins 2012 - Forsberg and Girgensons 2014 - Ekblad
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Jan 24, 2015 02:17
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Victoria Royals vs Kamloops Blazers is on Sportsnet (and Hockeystreams) if anyone wants to watch some hockey. The Royals have a couple good D prospects - Joe Hicketts (DET) and Travis Brown (CHI). I don't know Kamloops.
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Jan 24, 2015 04:40
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The woman who Kessel was caught checking out retweeted the Vine. https://twitter.com/slanouette33/status/558819576025452544
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Jan 24, 2015 05:59
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It sounds like they're putting up everything they can glean from the full play-by-plays (e.g. http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20142015/PL020697.HTM). That's where the other sites get Corsi and zone starts and all that. The NHL tracks and publishes those things in these play-by-plays, it just doesn't compile or total them or anything.
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Jan 29, 2015 02:05
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They're updated live during the games, I'm sure it's some automated thing from the scorers. Some poster (Heaf?) does or knows how recording this is done in the AHL. e: or do you mean taking that stuff and then turning it into season-long Corsi per player, etc? Because that's all done with computer programs. toe knee hand fucked around with this message at 02:16 on Jan 29, 2015 |
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Jan 29, 2015 02:14
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Schneider watch: 2.37/.921 Huh. Maybe he can live without Rollie after all. That's cool.
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Jan 29, 2015 05:26
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ThinkTank posted:Please no. Didn't some terrible team break a streak against the Sharks earlier this season? And the Canucks and the Sharks are identical twins separated at birth, so yeah, it'll happen.
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Jan 30, 2015 20:23
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