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The 2015 NFL Salary Cap Thread Well, the 2014 season is over for my team so that means it’s time to talk about the salary cap again. Another year means another set of difficult decisions for some NFL teams. The NFL salary cap is massively important and governs almost every decision a team will make in free agency, including trades and cuts. If you’ve ever been puzzled as to why your team didn’t franchise/trade/cut some player, the answer probably has something to do with the salary cap. The 2015 salary cap hasn’t been finalized yet, but the previous round of owner’s meetings in December put out a number between 138 – 142 million for the 2015 salary cap, a substantial increase over last year, with numbers set to go even higher in 2016. That’s a big deal for a lot of teams that were really close to the cap coming into the season. This thread is for general discussion of the salary cap, the cap situation of each team, and questions about either the cap in general, or a team’s situation. I’ll be posting cap analysis for any team I have time to cover, with some quick beats about what needs need to be filled and how they might create the space they need. I’m going to start with the most interesting teams, i.e. those who are either totally hosed (the Saints) or have really tough decisions to make (Cowboys, Cardinals, Rams, etc.). THE BASICS Let’s cover some of the general things you should know about the cap. What is the Salary Cap? The salary cap is an agreement between the NFL (all 32 teams) and the NFL Players’ Association that places a limit on the amount of money that a team can spend on player salaries (it also sets a spending floor). The cap serves two major functions in the NFL: First, it keeps overall costs down, restricting the growth of player salaries. Second, it increases the level of parity between teams so wealthier teams don’t just outspend their rivals to build better teams (note the level of variation in the NFL playoffs year-to-year--There is always a team going from last to first). The Salary Cap underwent some major changes in 2011 as a result of the new collective bargaining agreement. What Changed back in 2011? The short answer is “a lot.” But here are the major things you need to know: - Rookie Pay Scale – A rookie pay scale was implemented, capping the total amount a team could spend on rookies in a given year and limiting the size and length of rookie contracts. A slot system was also implemented, so rookies receive compensation based on when they were drafted. This has led to a massive uptick in trades during the draft as early picks are no longer tethered to oppressive contracts. - Rookie Contracts – Rookie contracts are now fully guaranteed and now last 4 years, with 1st round picks having an option to add a 5th year. - Veteran Exemptions – Veterans on a team playing on a Qualifying Contract count for a significantly lower cap hit than their salaries would indicate (see below). - Cap Rollover – Unused cap now rolls over year-to-year. - Salary Floor – Starting in 2013, teams have to spend 89% of their salary cap over a four-year period, in cash, on player contracts. That means that between 2013 and 2016, teams have to spend on average, around $460.32M on player contracts. How is the Salary Cap Calculated? This is really two questions. The first is “how is the cap total available to each team calculated?” and “how is a team’s total cap commitment calculated?” Let’s do these one at a time. The total cap allocated to each team is calculated as a percentage of football revenues. Each year, the league totals up its aggregate net revenue for the prior League Year (called “All Revenues,” or “AR”) from regular season/preseason/postseason gate receipts, broadcast rights, concessions, parting, advertising, sponsorship deals, and online operations (plus some other stuff), does a projection of the upcoming year, splits that into three categories – League Media AR, NFL Ventures/Postseason AR, and Local AR – and calculates the cap as the sum of 55% of projected League Media AR, 45% of projected NFL Ventures/Postseason AR, and 40% of projected Local AR. The more money the NFL makes, the higher the cap. This year, the cap is supposed to increase to $130M. The total cap commitment for an NFL team in a given year is calculated by summing the total value of the largest 51 contract amounts for that year, given by base salaries, bonuses due, LTBE incentives, and prorated signing bonuses (more on that in “How do NFL Contracts Work?” in the next post). Basically, all the money a team is spending on players in the upcoming year, plus any bonus money spread over multiple years and any Dead Money accelerated onto the current year. Exemptions As above, only the largest 51 contracts for players on a team actually count against the NFL Salary Cap for that team.
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Jan 12, 2015 13:50
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How do NFL Contracts Work? There’s a lot here, but it’s not as bad as it looks. NFL contracts consist of essentially four elements: 1. Base salary 2. Roster/Reporting and Workout Bonuses 3. Incentives (LTBE & NLTBE) 4. Prorated bonus Base Salary Also referred to as “Paragraph 5 Salary,” a player’s base salary is the money they earn for actually playing during the NFL season. The CBA mandates a minimum salary based on years accrued in the league with 3+ games on an active 53-man roster (also called “credited seasons”). In 2014 the veteran minimum for rookies is $420k per season while the minimum for players with 10+ credited seasons is $955k. Note that veterans can sign a one-year “qualifying contract” with a team where they are paid the veteran minimum (with bonuses not to exceed $65k) but only count against the cap as though they had two years of experience, i.e. $570k. This gives teams some incentive to sign veteran free agents. Roster/Reporting and Workout Bonuses These are lump sum bonuses paid for either being on the roster at a specific date, showing up to training camp, or completing a team’s offseason workout program. Roster bonuses are earned just for being on the team’s roster on a specific date, and tend to give players a bit of job security. These force teams to make a decision early or quickly about a player for a given year because once the bonus is paid out, it counts against the salary cap for the entire season. Reporting bonuses work the same way, but are typically paid out for players reporting to training camp. Workout bonuses are paid out for completing the offseason workout program in May and are mandatory now so these are usually to incite players—particularly older players—to participate. These are paid out based on a certain percentage of completion for the workout. Players also get a stipend for every day they’re in the program ($175 in 2013) that doesn’t count toward the cap. The league does however charge each team a cap fee (last year’s was $504k) for minimum workouts on top of contracted bonuses, and teams that don’t pay out all of that get a credit for whatever wasn’t spent. Incentives Player contracts also frequently have incentives, to reward players for playing at or above an expected level. The 2011 NFL CBA dictates what types of incentives are possible, such as health factors (meeting target weight), playing time (games, snaps), accumulation of official statistics (e.g. receptions, total yards, or sacks), or awards (e.g. pro bowl, all-pro, or MVP honors). These are split into two categories: Likely to Be Earned (LTBE) and Not Likely to Be Earned (NLTBE), based on how easy they are to accomplish for a given player based on current situation and past history. LTBE incentives count against the cap (with unpaid incentives being credited back), while NLTBE incentives don’t count against the cap unless they’re paid. Prorated Bonus This is the part that gives people the most trouble, usually. When teams give a player a signing or option bonus, the player receives a lump sum bonus that counts for cash paid in the first year of their new contract but the value of that bonus for cap purposes is spread out over the life of the contract, to a maximum of five years. Option bonuses work the same as signing bonuses except that they are typically paid out later in a contract, with their prorated bonus applying to the years after the option bonus. As an example, if you signed a 7-year deal with a $10M signing bonus, you’d receive the money up front, but your team would take a cap hit of $2M each year for the first five years of your contract. Signing bonuses give teams a way to entice a player to join a team but spread the cost over several years. They give players guaranteed money and job security as the teams suffer a penalty for cutting or trading a player who still has prorated bonus left (see Dead Money, below). Dead Money If a player with remaining prorated bonus on his contract leaves the team, either by being cut or traded, or retiring, then the team is still on the hook for the money that player had already received. In this case, the rest of that bonus accelerates to the current year, creating what’s referred to as Dead Money. Dead Money is basically a cap penalty for the current year and reduces a team’s ability to spend money on players. If you signed that 7-year deal with a $10M signing bonus and were cut in year 3, then the remaining $6M of prorated bonus money would become dead money for your former team in what would have been year 3 of your contract, along with any other roster/workout/reporting bonuses you had already been paid in year 3. Dead money can be a huge problem for teams up against the cap and is a common byproduct of bad contracts. It also gives players a significant level of job security, particularly early on in their new contracts. Players cut after June 1st, or designated a June 1st Cut (i.e. they are cut prior to June 1 but claimed to be a June 1st cut) only create dead money equal to their current year’s prorated bonus amount, with the rest applying to the following League Year. So if you were on that 7-year deal and cut after June 1st in year 3, your former team would get $2M in dead money on the books this year and the remaining $4M next year. Restructuring Contracts You often hear about contracts being restructured, or restructured and extended. When a contract is restructured, typically some percentage of the current year’s base salary is converted into signing bonus, paid out to the player immediately but with the actual cap hit spread over the remainder of the contract, current year included, to a maximum of the next 5 years. So suppose you were in year 6 of your 7 year deal. You have no prorated bonus left, but a base salary of $10M for the year. Your team could restructure your deal to add 2 years (making it a 9-year deal total) and convert $8M of your salary into signing bonus. Your base salary this year is reduced to $2M, and the team spreads the cap hit of your new bonus ($8M) over the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th years of your deal, adding a $2M cap hit to each of those years for the prorated bonus and moving a net of $6M off the books for the current year. Some contracts are built with restructuring in mind. These typically have really large base salaries for one year several years in, with lower salaries in the years following with the idea being to spread that year’s cap hit over the remaining years if the player is worth retaining. Franchise Tags NFL teams can apply a Franchise Designation to a player set to become an unrestricted free agent, keeping the player on the team for one year under a guaranteed salary on par with that of the top players at that player’s position. A team can designate one franchise player per year. There are two types of franchise tag, the Exclusive tag and the non-exclusive tag. A player with the exclusive franchise tag gets a one-year guaranteed contract equal to the average of the top five salaries at the player’s position as of a date in April of the current year in which the tag will apply, or 120% of the player’s salary in the previous year, whichever is greater. Exclusive franchise players can’t negotiate with other teams (the team retains all negotiating rights for that player’s contract). A player with the non-exclusive tag gets a one-year guaranteed contract equal to the average of top five salaries at the player’s position for the previous year, or 120% of the player’s previous year salary, whichever is greater. A non-exclusive player can negotiate with other teams, but his team gets to match the offer he receives and if it does not, the team will receive two first-round picks from the signing team as compensation. TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 13:53 on Jan 12, 2015 |
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Jan 12, 2015 13:50
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MISC INFO Here’s some additional information about the cap this year that you might find helpful. The Rookie Pool Each team has to allocate a portion of its cap toward rookie signings, based on the number and position of picks they exercised in the current year’s draft. This number can be anywhere from $3M to $8M in base salary, based on a team’s draft situation. Additionally each team will need another $2M to $16M in cash to allocate to signing bonuses for their rookies. Total this up and it means that teams will need between $4M and $9M to sign their rookies. Salary Cap Resources If you’re looking for more info on cap and contracts, you should consider the following sites: Over the Cap is a great site with tons of cap analysis. Spotrac has tons of player contract data, with data for every team in every major sport. The 2011 NFL CBA is where everything comes from. Everything there is to know about the cap and player compensation is in there. 2014 Projected Salary Cap This year's cap is projected to come in between 138 and 142M so right now let’s assume it’s $140M 2014 Franchise Tag Amounts by Position Exclusive tag estimated values by position for 2015: code:code:TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 13:53 on Jan 12, 2015 |
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Jan 12, 2015 13:51
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Individual Team Analysis: Arizona Cardinals Dallas Cowboys Kansas City Chiefs New Orleans Saints New York Giants TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Jan 15, 2015 |
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Jan 12, 2015 13:51
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So how hosed are the Saints? Is Brees' career over?
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Jan 12, 2015 14:34
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Funny you should ask--they're the first team I'm covering! Write-up will be done shortly.
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Jan 12, 2015 15:22
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How in the motherfuck does Denver have that much money to spend
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Jan 12, 2015 15:48
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Because they haven't signed/franchised Julius Thomas yet. They seriously don't have a lot of crippling contracts. Just a crippled QB.
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Jan 12, 2015 15:58
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It'll be interesting to see what the Jets do with Percy Harvin. If they cut him, they'll be approaching $60m in cap space and will only have to give up a 6th instead of a 4th rounder. Of course there's not nearly enough FA talent available to spend that money anyways so you might as well keep him. I wouldn't even bother re-negotiating him to a lower cap figure. Having him year-to-year is worth more than the couple million in cap savings.
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Jan 12, 2015 16:15
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TheChirurgeon posted:2015 Projected Cap Space by Team (based on a cap of $140M) Does this assume that the Revis contract is actually honored (which nobody expects) or is this assuming it's voided through a cut or a renegotiation?
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Jan 12, 2015 16:36
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evilweasel posted:Does this assume that the Revis contract is actually honored (which nobody expects) or is this assuming it's voided through a cut or a renegotiation? A renegotiation could do anything to the cap number obviously so no use discussing.
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Jan 12, 2015 16:38
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Ozu posted:That assumes a $25m cap number for Revis. In reality, they'll free up $20m with $5m in dead money when they release him. Well the renegotiation would effectively be a cut+resigning so you could plausibly say the Patriots cap number was $5m in dead money with $20m in room, but they've got exclusive negotiating rights with Revis for a bit. Either way though, that answers that question - thanks.
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Jan 12, 2015 16:43
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Cap Hell and Then Some: The 2015 New Orleans Saints Projected Cap Space: -$22,676,945 Breakdown Team Cap: $141,732,946 Active Spending: $163,483,693 Dead Money: $926,198 Notable Free Agents Patrick Robinson (CB) Mark Ingram (RB) Jonathan Goodwin (C) Robert Meachem (WR) Parys Haralson (LB) Tyrunn Walker (DL)* Jamarca Sanford (S) Shayne Graham (K) *Restricted Likely Cap Casualties Ben Watson (TE) Marques Colston (WR) Hoo boy. This cap situation makes last year’s Steelers and Cowboys situations look pretty benign. Despite playing fairly well on offense in 2014 outside of some red zone struggles (4th in offensive EPA), the Saints were a dumpster fire on defense, ranking dead last in Def EPA (32nd against the run, 28th against the pass). That’s a big problem for a team that really needs more talent on defense and can’t afford to add any. Clearing Space The obvious cap casualties are TE Ben Watson and WR Marques Colston. Watson wasn’t an important player in the offense and cutting him saves the team $1.5M in cap room (+$400k dead money). Colston is a bit tougher pill to swallow but ultimately the team needs the cap room. Cutting Colston before June 1 frees up $4.3M in cap room ($5.4M dead money); a post-June 1 cut will save the team $7M in cap room and push some of the dead money to 2016 (only $2M in 2015). Those two cuts save the saints $11.3M but that still leaves another $11M to find (before we have to worry about the rookie pool). This is where things get really hairy. The most fungible cap-saving asset on the roster is Pierre Thomas, whose 11-game, 45-attempt 222-yard season in no way merits his $3.2M cap hit. Cutting Thomas saves $1.735M, $2.15M post June 1. That still only gets the team to about $9.5M over the cap. At this point we have to look at less-appetizing but high-value cuts for additional room. The biggest one is Guard Jahri Evans, a former 5-time pro bowler who showed signs of slipping this season, particularly in pass protection. Cutting Evans leaves a big hole in the Saints’ offensive line but saves them $6M in cap space ($7.5M post-June 1). That said, as we’ll see in a bit Extensions The most obvious extension candidate is DE Cameron Jordan, who’s on the last year of his deal in 2015 and set to make $6.969M in base salary with no bonuses in 2015. Jordan’s young, and assuming the team can convert the bulk of this year’s salary to a signing bonus, they should be able to cut that cap hit down to around $4M, saving another $3M in the process. Other Moves The Saints have 4 players due to make huge roster bonuses in 2015: - Junior Galette ($12.5M) - Jimmy Graham ($5M) - Jairus Byrd ($6M) - Curtis Lofton ($4.5M) For each of these guys kept on the roster, that bonus can be converted to a signing bonus and prorated over the remaining years of their contracts. That saves $3M for Lofton, $4.8M for Byrd, $2.4M for Graham, and $10M for Galette. That’s 20.2M right there. You combine that with the other moves and the Saints have temporarily averted the crisis and made enough room to pay their rookies and replace their cuts with some low-cost JAGs. That said, it is both undesirable to do this for every one of those guys and unlikely that the Saints will do it. Kicking the can down the road for all 4 of these guys at the same time is going to lead to even more headache next year, where the Saints already have $141.6M committed to the cap. The extensions for these guys will add another $10M or so to that figure, which when added to Jordan’s extension and the rookie contracts could put them at or over the cap number for 2016 before it even starts. And that’s not considering the risk of extending Jairus Byrd, who missed the bulk of the season with a torn MCL and is not guaranteed to return at the same level next season. Savings Recap: Roster Bonus conversions: $20.2M Proposed cuts: $19.45M Extensions: $3M Total: $42.65M Cap Space: $19.17M Free Agents That cap savings number seems large but remember that the Saints still have to re-sign quite a few players as well. Goodwin wasn’t a particularly strong asset in 2014 but he did play the majority of snaps at center for the team before spraining his MCL and leaving Tim Lelito to take over. While the Saints defense in 2014 was terrible, part of the issue is the lack of quality depth for the defense. Several notable contributors from this year’s team are set to be free agents this year, further depleting the team’s lackluster depth on defense. Patrick Robinson was just average in coverage but stepped up to play 624 snaps following Byrd’s injury. Parys Haralson saw play as a situational guy and had some success against the run opposite Galette, playing 498 snaps. Tyrunn Walker is a 2nd year UDFA who played reasonably well stepping in and playing 306 snaps with 19 tackles and 2.5 sacks before a leg injury took him out of the Falcons game. Thoughts For all their troubles, the Saints’ crisis is largely self-made, building a team that would implode as Brees’ ability to play at a high level wanes. It’s not a bad strategy, and Saints fans would have a hard time arguing that they’d trade the Loomis/Payton/Brees era for a better 2015/16/17. It’s going to be rough going with the cap for the next few years for the Saints until Brees retires and everything comes crashing down in a Raiders-esque mess. But looking at the NFC South this year, it would be hard to argue that even a depleted Saints team won’t have a shot at winning the division. There's no reason the team won't keep Brees, who carries a 2015 cap hit of $27.4M, but who also threw for 4,952 yards and ranked 4th among QBs in EPA. Looking at the cuts and extensions we’ve seen above, the Saints will need to replenish a severely-depleted WR corps, fill in a big gap on the offensive line, and find a way to improve the league’s worst defense through the draft. My guess is that the team will take a strategy similar to the 2014 Cowboys, working on keeping the offense competitive while hoping for a fairly injury-free year on defense to provide some natural bounce-back and keep the team competitive in situations where it has to hold a lead. But like the 2014 Cowboys, they’ll be 2-3 injuries away from being a complete mess. TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 16:59 on Jan 12, 2015 |
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Jan 12, 2015 16:53
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Ozu posted:That assumes a $25m cap number for Revis. In reality, they'll free up $20m with $5m in dead money when they release him. Yeah, Revis won't stay on the team at that cap number.
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Jan 12, 2015 16:55
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The Seahawks are probably going to use all of their cap to extend Russell Wilson to the biggest NFL contract ever (until Andrew Luck beats him out the following year) as well as Bobby Wagner. There's probably not a whole lot of money to get a veteran WR like Larry Fitzgerald in a trade / dump, and with Paul Richardson tearing his ACL, it means we will have to draft another WR early again. James Carpenter is also a free agent after this year. I have mixed feelings on him but I think they'll extend him a contract. Lynch is on contract for one more year but who knows if he holds out, retires or otherwise. If he does, our RB corps takes a blow but we can use the money to maybe get that WR in free agency we could really use.
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Jan 12, 2015 20:05
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As of this post the Baltimore Ravens have a cap number of $136. 7 million. Add to that their cap savings this year and they have around 9 million in wiggle room with a whole hell of a lot to do. Baltimore has a lot going on this off season so just bare with me for a moment. For the Ravens the only for sure cap casualty I'd guess is Chris Canty for 2.66 mil. He has been a bit of a JAG in Baltimore and there are two D-linemen in Kapron Lewis-Moore and Bret Urban to take his place. Only problem with those guys is that neither has ever seen an NFL field due to injury. At the moment Balimore only has 41 players signed to the team so there isn't a lot of fat to cut, but other than Canty Jacoby Jones is the best bet to be gone. It isn't much in terms of relief but 750,000 is something and frankly the roster spot could probably be better used. Jones is sort of amazing in that he's an eight year vet that has gained absolutely nothing in the way of Football I.Q. since his rookie year. Guys to resign is a bit trickier. Torrey Smith is a valuable receiver but he had one hell of an odd contract year. Career high in TDs at 11 but career lows in receptions and yards. One does have to factor in all those extra penalty yards, at least Smith's agents think so, but you have to consider Ints thrown his way and untimely drops as well. I believe both sides want to get a deal done but the Ravens will likely low ball and wait for Torrey to return home after exploring a free agency that is absolutely packed at WR. My guess is Torrey is a Raven for a while longer at a 5 mil a year avg. which is probably slightly overpaying. Forsett is another player who it would be great to keep but who the hell knows where his value is right now. I know the Ravens want to keep him and considering the success he's seen in Baltimore I imagine he'd like to stay as well but who knows what the rest of will think if FA Justin Forsett. Owen Daniels will be back at the vet min if Baltimore wants him which they probably will if they don't plan to pursue TE in the draft. The Ravens FO will probably also try extending one or all of Jimmy Smith (6.9 mil cap hit), Ladarius Webb ( 12 mil cap hit), and Haloti Ngata (16 mil cap hit). Smith's extension would likely be just to keep him on the team so cap relief is just a fringe benefit. Webb would be a prime candidate for getting cut if it weren't for the fact that the move would only net 2 mil and he is very sadly the best corner we had on the field for most of the year. Ngata is the big one because his having the largest cap hit of anyone on the team considering his level of play is absolutely untenable. If Haloti doesn't restructure he's gone as that would save Baltimore 8.5 mil and they have a very capable replacement in Timmy Jernigan. The weirdest thing about the Ravens cap issues this year are two fairly recent contracts biting us in the rear end. Ray Rice was cut for reasons you're likely aware of and that accelerated his guaranteed money to 2015. That means that Baltimore is on the hook for 9.5 million or slightly more than our entire available cap space. This is compounded further by Dennis Pitta's back to back hip injuries. If Pitta decides to retire this year his accelerated cap hit becomes 12.8 mil which is an additional 6.6 onto the Ravens cap number. That would be incredibly crippling so even if he's back on injured reserve it is well worth it for the FO to talk Pitta out of retiring. Lots of numbers flying around in lots of ways so if nothing else it should be an interesting off-season in Baltimore.
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Jan 12, 2015 21:21
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TheChirurgeon posted:Funny you should ask--they're the first team I'm covering! Write-up will be done shortly. Awesome post. Additionally, I know you're a Cowboys fan and I saw this list floating around today of the Cowboys FAs. How screwed are they? UFAs: Doug Free RT Dez Bryant WR Jeremy Parnell RT DeMarco Murray RB Bruce Carter OLB Justin Durant OLB Anthony Spencer DE George Selvie DE Nick Hayden DT Rolando McClain ILB Dwayne Harris WR Sterling Moore CB Chris Jones P Tyler Clutts FB C.J. Spillman S Tony Hills LT James Anderson OLB RFAs: Cole Beasley WR Darrion Weems LT Lance Dunbar RB Ron Leary G David Little WR Cameron Lawrence OLB They have $13M in cap room right now. How the hell are they going to re-sign half their team?  I've never seen an FA list that long for one team.
axeil fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Jan 12, 2015 |
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Jan 12, 2015 23:00
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Ozu posted:It'll be interesting to see what the Jets do with Percy Harvin. If they cut him, they'll be approaching $60m in cap space and will only have to give up a 6th instead of a 4th rounder. Of course there's not nearly enough FA talent available to spend that money anyways so you might as well keep him. I've gotta disagree, Harvin isn't worth nearly what he's being paid. Too much is lost by keeping him on his current contract. It'd cost less to cut him and then re-sign him because nobody should be offering him anything close to his current contract and we'd keep the 4th rounder on top of that. If he goes somewhere else, oh well, he wasn't good on this team anyway and he's a constant injury risk on top of that.
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Jan 13, 2015 00:29
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Goodbye Fitz: The Arizona Cardinals Projected Cap Space: -$6,947,875 Breakdown Team Cap: $144,250,620 Active Spending: $148,778,135 Dead Money: $2,420,360 Notable Free Agents Antonio Cromartie (CB) John Abraham (LB) Dan Williams (DT) Robert Houseler (TE) Sam Acho (LB) Mike Leach (LS) Tommy Kelly (DT) Larry Foote (LB) Paul Fanaika (G) Ryan Lindley (LOL) Likely Cap Casualties Larry Fitzgerald (WR) Fitz is currently sitting on a 2015 cap hit of $23.6M, owing to an $8M roster bonus and $7.35M in prorated bonuses. His roster bonus is due in March, so it’s possible the team could release or trade him despite GM Steve Keim’s public insistence that the team has already accounted for Fitz and plans to keep him. This seems like wishful thinking, however—the team is currently $6.948M over the cap heading into 2015 and it doesn’t seem like a great idea to sink 1/6th of the team’s cap space into a Wide Receiver, especially one who will be 32. If Fitz is cut or traded prior to his roster bonus hitting, the team will save $16M in cap room and create $7.35M in dead money. If he’s cut later, they’ll have to eat that so expect something to happen before the draft if it happens at all. On the other hand, if they choose to convert that $8M to signing bonus, they can save up to $6M by spreading the bonus over the final 4 years of Fitz’s contract. That’ll get them part of the way there, but they’ll still need to clear up about $10M in cap room just so sign their rookies and replacement-level backups. Another interesting note is Carson Palmer, who signed a new 3-year $50M contract extension right before getting injured and missing the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Arians has said that he expects Palmer to return in time for the start of camp, but it’s unclear if the 35 year-old QB will be able to return and if so, at what level he’ll be able to play. Palmer’s contract suggests that the Cardinals will have to make quick action: If he’s on the roster 5 days after the Super Bowl, the following year’s base salary and roster bonus will become fully guaranteed. Roster is due a $1M base salary and a $9.5M roster bonus in 2015, so the Cardinals will likely end up eating a $14.5M cap hit for Palmer if he decides to give it another go. Clearing Space Patrick Peterson (CB) is one possible extension candidate, with a base salary of $11.62M in 2015 that can be partially converted to signing bonus. He’s set to have an average base salary of over $10M in each of the next 5 years of his contract however, so restructuring is a dangerous move that bets big on his long-term health. Another move the team could make is to cut Darnell Dockett (DE). Dockett missed the entire 2014 season with a torn ACL and is due to make $6.55M in base salary in 2015 with $3M in prorated bonus and a $250k workout bonus. Cutting Dockett before June 1 would save $6.8M against the cap. Lyle Sendlein (C) will be 31 in 2015 and is set to count $4.275M against the cap in 2015. That’s a lot of money for a player of Sendlein’s meagre ability, but it’s not clear that the Cardinals will be able to find a capable replacement in the free agency market. If they do cut Sendlein, they’ll save $3.15M and get $1.125M in dead money. Tedd Ginn (WR) is another likely cap casualty, counting $4M against the cap with a $3.25M base salary. That’s really high for a receiver that played only 159 snaps in 2015. Cutting Ginn saves $2.5M and creates $1.5M in dead money. Finally Jerraud Powers (DB) is a likely salary cap casualty after an uneven season. He’ll count $5.25M against the 2015 cap with a $4.25M base salary. Cutting Powers will save the Cardinals $4.25M in cap space with only $1M in dead money. Extensions The Cardinals could also save money by extending and restructuring the contract of Calais Campbell, who had a stellar season and is set to make $9M in base salary in 2015 with $5.5M in prorated bonuses. How much this would save depends on the contract, but the Cardinals could easily clear up $5M or more this way. Savings Recap: Proposed cuts: $16.7M Extensions: $4M Total: $18.2 Cap Space: $13.75M The problem with these changes is that $13.75M isn’t really enough to sign the rookies and re-sign all the free agents necessary to build a competitive roster. Despite their insistence to the contrary, I really don’t believe that Fitzgerald stays on the roster in 2015. Free Agents The Cardinals free agent list isn’t particularly great, but it’s worth noting that the list includes starting guard Paul Fanaika, who played 916 snaps (albeit largely not great ones) for the Cardinals in 2014. Even if the Cardinals don’t choose to re-sign Fanaika, they’ll need to find a starting guard to replace him in free agency or the draft. Antonio Cromartie put in over one thousand snaps at CB, second only to Rashad Johnson among Cardinals defenders, and did a more than passable job at the position. The Cardinals probably can’t afford to re-sign him for his 2014 $4M cap hit but it’s clear that he can still play at a high level. John Abraham is a guy the Cardinals might try to take a chance on with a 1-year minimum deal if he’s willing to come back. Abraham missed all of 2015 due to a concussion but Abraham will only be 1 season removed from an 11.5-sack performance in 2013. If he wants to come back, someone will pick him up for low cost. Dan Williams and Sam Acho both performed well in limited roles, each seeing action on more than 400 snaps. Acho was supposed to lose his starting job to Shaughnessy prior to the season but ended up accruing more snaps after Shaughnessy injured his knee and spent the majority of the season on IR. Neither player is a big loss, but both are decent depth. Thoughts Something’s gotta give with Fitz’s contract and I think he’s gone. If the Cardinals can cut or deal him before March, they’ll have no problem clearing up all the cap space they need. If they don’t, they may be looking at a rough year.
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Jan 13, 2015 00:32
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axeil posted:Awesome post. I'm obviously going to cover the Cowboys. It's not that big a deal. The following guys on that list are not JAGs: Bryant Beasley Spencer McClain Murray They'll fill most of the defensive spots with draft picks for little to no decline in quality. Most of the space Dallas needs will come from cutting Brandon Carr, releasing Henry Melton, and restructuring Romo again.Cutting Carr and releasing Melton alone saves $17M. I'll cover Dallas in the next couple updates.
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Jan 13, 2015 00:37
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TheChirurgeon posted:I'm obviously going to cover the Cowboys. It's not that big a deal. The following guys on that list are not JAGs: Oh drat, that's a lot of cash for two cuts. Sounds like they shouldn't have any issues then.
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Jan 13, 2015 01:57
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Why are DE and DT broken up but all OL positions the same in regards to franchise tag numbers?
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Jan 13, 2015 02:34
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TheChirurgeon posted:I'm obviously going to cover the Cowboys. It's not that big a deal. The following guys on that list are not JAGs: I would expect each of those guys back as well. What do you think they will do with Bruce Carter? He played well as a Strongside Linebacker this year and was also able to play on nickle downs and looked decent.
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Jan 13, 2015 02:57
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Ribsauce posted:Why are DE and DT broken up but all OL positions the same in regards to franchise tag numbers? Because the NFL doesn't really give a poo poo about the distinction between offensive linemen. It's a good deal for Centers and Guards, really, as the numbers will be based primarily on Left Tackle salary numbers.
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Jan 13, 2015 03:21
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OK, Time to Build a Defense: The Dallas Cowboys Projected Cap Space: $13,048,384 Breakdown Team Cap: $143,260,739 Active Spending: $122,258,506 Dead Money: $7,953,849 (#3 in dead money in 2015. Thanks, Miles Austin!) Notable Free Agents Doug Free (RT) Dez Bryant (WR) Jeremy Parnell (RT) DeMarco Murray (RB) Bruce Carter (LB) Justin Durant (LB) Anthony Spencer (DE) George Selvie (DE) Nick Hayden (DT) Rolando McClain (LB) Dwayne Harris (WR) Sterling Moore (CB) Chris Jones (P) Tyler Clutts (FB) Cole Beasley (WR)* CJ Spillman (S) Lance Dunbar (RB)* Ron Leary (LG)* *Restricted Likely Cap Casualties Brandon Carr (CB) (Post June 1) Henry Melton (DT) Dekoda Watson (LB) Amobi Okoye (DE) Welcome to the Cowboys’ long climb out of cap hell. It’s fraught with peril and intricately tied to the health of QB Tony Romo. The Cowboys cap situation isn’t as dire as it looks at first glance, given the number of expendable assets on the UFA list and the amount that can be saved with a few cuts. Brandon Carr has clearly not lived up to his $50M contract and after another year of blown coverages, it *should* be time for the team to move on. Shedding Carr’s contract is painful, but if made a post-June 1 cut releasing him will save $8M while pushing $4.717M in dead money onto the 2015 cap (with just under $8M against next year’s cap… ouch). The alternative is potentially restructuring his deal again and pushing cap to the voidable final year of his contract, but that just throws good money after bad. Henry Melton signed a 3-year deal in Dallas worth only $2.594M in 2014 but increasing to a $9M base salary in 2015. Melton played reasonably well but ended the season on IR with a bone bruise in his knee and is likely to be a cap casualty in 2015. Melton only played 433 snaps in 2014, picking up 5 sacks. While that puts him at 2nd on the team, it’s hardly stellar. Melton’s 1-year contract becomes a 4-year deal if he’s on the roster for the first day of the 2015 league year so expect that to lead to a decision fairly quickly. If the Cowboys cut Melton they save $8.5M with only $750k in dead money. Given the importance of re-signing much of the team’s 2014 roster, there’s a good chance Melton is a cap casualty. That said, as we’ll see below, the Cowboys can make plenty of room with another key restructure. Dekoda Watson and Amobi Okoye contributed almost nothing to the team and cutting them will save Dallas $2.12M with no dead money. Potential Restructures The Cowboys are nearing the end of the line with regard to restructuring contracts. That said, they’ll probably restructure Romo one more time. Romo’s cap hit jumps to $27.77M in 2015 owing to a $17M base salary. With lower base salaries in ’16 and ’17 ($8.5M, 14M), it seems like this restructure was planned a bit in advance. The team can save as much as $8M against the 2015 cap by restructuring Romo while creating relatively few problems for themselves in the future. 2018 and 2019 may get hairy, but it’s unlikely Romo will still be playing then at age 38. Finally the team could restructure Jason Witten again, whose current prorated signing bonus for 2016/2017 is $912k. Witten is due a $5.1M base salary in 2015, but his cap hits in 2016 and 2017 are comparatively smaller. Converting $3M of his salary to signing bonus will save the team $2M in cap while only adding $1M to his cap hit in each of the next two years. Proposed Savings Cuts: $18.62M Restructures: $8M Total: $26.62M Cap Space: $39.62M Re-Signing Bros The Cowboys’ number one priority in 2015 is signing Dez Bryant. If they don’t sign him, you had better believe they’ll franchise him. Blown calls aside, Bryant is clearly one of the NFL’s best wide receivers, leading the NFL with receiving TDs in 2014 (16), and placing top 5 in WPA and EPA/P. Bryant has turned down long-term offers from the Cowboys before when they did not include enough guaranteed money. At this point expect the Cowboys to put something with a large signing bonus on the table that will make Romo/Bryant a combo through the end of Romo’s contract, though they’ll franchise Bryant before they put a Calvin Johnson-sized deal on the table. This will be the Cowboy’s biggest expenditure this offseason. DeMarco Murray had a great season, but the Cowboys would be foolish to re-sign him and appear to have had no plans to retain him. This is a smart move. Murray ran well, but unspectacularly behind a strong offensive line, averaging 4.7 yards per carry on a whopping 392 carries. It seems like a bad policy to bet on Murray having another fully healthy season after that, let alone one of that value. Next up is retaining the offensive line. Doug Free played well until bone spurs in his foot caused him to miss the 2nd half of the season and while he’s a better player than Parnell, the former DT acquitted himself well playing with the offensive line in the 2nd half of the season. I expect Dallas will try to retain both but if Free wants too much money (and he’s accepted a pay cut from the team once before), they should look at Parnell as the lower-cost alternative. Ron Leary is another high-priority signing target given the amount of time he’s played alongside the offensive line. If Dallas can sign both Leary and one of Parnell/Free, they should be able to expect the same performance or better going into next year. Cole Beasley was a secret star for Dallas in 2014 and is tough as a coffin nail. He’s an RFA, so expect him to return in 2015, along with Lance Dunbar. Dwayne Harris looked great in 2013, but was completely average last year and fumbled enough times on kick/punt returns to be memorable and never made a real impact on offense. Expect him to come back on a small contract, if at all. After the offensive group has been taken care of, Dallas has a number of choices to make regarding its defensive UFAs. Most of these decisions will come down to cost vs. player value. The Cowboys would love to bring back Rolando McClain, who was sorely missed due to concussion symptoms at the end of the 2014 season, but with Sean Lee returning he could be superfluous. Anthony Spencer did not see much playing time in 2014 and likewise his value is up in the air as well. Dallas will want to retain him, but on a deal similar to the one he played on in 2014, i.e. very team-friendly. After that, the team has to make decisions about a large number of JAGs: Bruce Carter showed some flashes in 2014 but continued to disappoint in pass coverage, while Justin Durant was decent in limited snaps but nothing to write home about. George Selvie continues to perform above very low expectations, but is best-used as a run defender. Nick Hayden was mostly a liability. Sterling Moore proved to be an asset at Nickel CB, but got torched by Green Bay. I expect they'll try to keep all of these guys on low contracts, but will be fine with letting them walk if they're smart--no sense getting too attached to marginal talent. Free Agency After that, Dallas will have to make upgrading the defense, either through the draft or free agency, a priority (the team will need a starting CB and has to improve its pass rush). The team won’t have the money to sign a Ndamukung Suh-level talent, but could make smaller moves. Speculating at this point is always a questionable venture, but the team could look at bringing in a veteran CB on a one-year deal to replace Carr (remember as well that Claibourne will be back next year to play out the final year of his contract. Claibourne is a bust, but useful depth). Same goes for the defensive line, where the team will be looking for more players on the level of Jeremy Mincey to create a unit of average quality that will keep the team in the game long enough for the offense to win. Hilariously, a move for Adrian Peterson isn't out of the question; Dallas could end up going after him if he's cut by the Vikings, but a trade is extremely unlikely, given that Peterson's base salary in 2015 is $12.5M, a number well beyond Dallas' price range. If Peterson is willing to sign a smaller deal with more guaranteed money after hitting free agency however, Dallas could be a buyer. Even at his current age, Peterson is a clear upgrade over Murray, even if only for a year before the inevitable slowdown due to age (though taking a year off is likely to have improved his long-term durability). Overview There’s a surprising amount to be hopeful for if you’re a Dallas fan: The team has been drafting relatively well over the past few years and that’s helped get through some really rough cap times. Recent defensive players the team has drafted such as Anthony Hitchens, Tyrone Crawford, and DeMarcus Lawrence have shown promise, and the team can clear enough space in 2015 to re-sign key offensive pieces while making one or two moves to upgrade on defense. If the Cowboys’ 2015 draft holds up well, the team should have no problem contending next year. The defense still won’t be good, but I’m at least not terrified of seeing what we’ll be forced to field in 2015. All that said, Jerry Jones could see the team’s playoff success as a sign that the team is “one player away” from a Super Bowl and do something completely loving retarded. Hopefully that won’t happen and we’ll be talking about how Suh was a bust for Washington this time next year. TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 04:37 on Jan 13, 2015 |
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Jan 13, 2015 04:31
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Cutting Brooks and Davis will free up a good deal of space for the Niners, if Justin Smith retires then they'll be off the hook for that money too. Brooks especially is as good as gone, Aaron Lynch has made him redundant and they'll eat about 5 mil in dead money for cutting him now but save about 4 in 2015 alone and something like 15 mil all told. But they're probably not going to make a lot of big money additions this offseason since just getting to the point where they can sign their rookie class will take some doing. They could potentially restructure Bowman, but he's the only guy I can think of that has signed an extension recently that hasn't already gotten restructured. Any major non-draft moves they'll make will probably have to come via trade or off the scrap heap for peanuts, but those are arguably the things Baalke does best so he could still manage to make something good happen.
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Jan 13, 2015 11:40
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I'd be happy to work with you on the Jaguars segment. Because cash cash money yo.
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Jan 13, 2015 23:40
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JT Jag posted:I'd be happy to work with you on the Jaguars segment. Because cash cash money yo. Jaguars cap space: all the money Jaguars needs: All the positions except QB, one DT and punter
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Jan 13, 2015 23:42
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Chiefs are boned. It'll be really sad when Tamba and Bowe get cut.
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Jan 14, 2015 01:07
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Who Needs Receivers: The Kansas City Chiefs Projected Cap Space: -$2,091,582 Breakdown Team Cap: $142,188,093 Active Spending: $138,953,172 Dead Money: $5,326,503 Notable Free Agents Justin Houston (LB) Rodney Hudson (C) Jeff Linkenbach (G) Christopher Owens (CB) Ron Parker (S) Josh Mauga (LB) Kurt Coleman (S) Ryan Harris (RT) The Chiefs finished their 2014 season 9-7 despite going the entire season without having their wide receivers score a single TD. They were able to do this by allowing the 2nd fewest points in the NFL (17.6 per game). This may oversell their defense a bit however, which wasn’t as effective as that stat would indicate—the defense allowed 4.7 yards per rush on the ground (30th), partly due to the loss of Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson, though the team was solid against the pass (6.4 ypa, 3rd) before you factor in opponent adjustments. Part of the reason for this is that they were strong in the red zone but only average at preventing opponent first downs to take them there. Heading into 2015 the Chiefs are clearly strong on defense but woefully talent deficient on offense and whereas last year they had money to spend, this year they’re very much strapped for cash. Likely Cap Casualties Dwayne Bowe (WR) This seems like it’s as easy as cuts come. Dwayne Bowe had 0 touchdowns in 2014 and cutting him will save $5M against the cap ($9M dead money) if he’s cut pre-june 1 or $11M/$3M dead if designated a post-June 1 cut. Far-removed from his stellar 2010 season in which he caught for 1,162 yards and 15 TDs, Bowe never lived up to his 2012 deal and now simply costs too much to retain. The Chiefs will have to eat $9M in dead money for cutting him, but a post-June 1 cut will push $6M to next year and give the Chiefs some breathing room this year. Clearing Space With Bowe out of the way, we still need to clear up another $6-12M in cap room to sign rookies and fill out the roster (one thing you’ll note is that the Chiefs have 2 starters from their offensive line hitting free agency). DE Mike DeVito is on the wrong side of 30 and missed all of the 2014 season with a torn Achilles tendon and is set to count $5.4M against the cap in 2015. Cutting him saves $4M with $1.4M in dead money, so he may be an attractive space option. Likewise, LB Derrick Johnson also suffered a torn Achilles tendon and will be 33 heading into the 2015 season. Johnson made the Pro Bowl for three straight seasons heading into 2014, but it’s unclear what level he’ll play at when he returns and he’s set to count $5.25M against the cap. Cutting Johnson saves all of that with no dead money on the books. Part of that will be releasing Johnson before his 2015 roster bonus ($1M) goes into effect. Per Excidium's notes (below), Anthony Fasano (TE), Chase Daniel (QB), and Donnie Avery (WR) are all potential cuts as well. They'll need replacing, but if the Chiefs want to retain Houston (more on that below), they'll need to look at super-cheap replacements for each of these guys as a way to save cap room. Extensions/Restructures As a critical part of the Chiefs’ pass rush and present on 999 snaps in 2014, LB Tamba Hali is more of a restructuring target than a cap casualty. Hali’s on the last year of his current deal with a $6.75M base salary and a $2M roster bonus that kicks in the day after the new season begins in March. If the team cuts him, they save $9M (with $2.965M in dead money) but the more ideal solution is to extend Hali and convert his 2015 salary and roster bonuses into signing bonus. A new 5-year deal would allow them to save as much as $7M against the cap this season by spreading that money over the next 4 years. Another option the Chiefs have is restructuring Alex Smith’s contract: They can convert part of his $11.9M base salary in 2015 to signing bonus and spread it over the remaining 4 years of his contract. This will make Smith significantly more painful to cut in 2016 if he underperforms, but won’t make things much more difficult in 2017 when his base salary drops down to $10.8M. Restructuring Smith’s deal can save up to 8M in 2015. Savings Recap: Proposed cuts: $19.25M Extensions: $7M Total: $26.25M Cap Space: $24.16M Free Agents The Chiefs have their work cut out for them when it comes to re-signing their free agents, with star linebacker Justin Houston hitting free agency. Houston had a monster year in 2014 and was arguably the league’s second-best defender, racking up an astonishing 22 sacks, 25 QB hits, 4 forced fumbles, and 5 passes defensed. Heading into the season at age 26, Houston was in talks with the Chiefs about a long-term deal last offseason but ultimately could not reach an agreement with the team (Houston made a smart bet on himself). He’s in line for a monster payday—expect Houston to become one of the highest-paid defensive players in the league this offseason, but it’s not clear if he’ll see anything in the range of JJ Watt’s $100M deal. Linebacker salaries are significantly lower than those for defensive ends, with the highest-paid linebacker currently being Clay Matthews at $13.2M per year ($66M over 5 years). If Houston does get Watt money, we could be looking at a 6-year deal with around $20M in signing bonuses, though the structure will depend on the cap situation of the team signing him. At that cost, it’s unlikely he’ll be returning to the Chiefs with their current cap situation though a carefully-structured contract could cost them as little as $10M in cap room in 2015. On the other hand, if Houston “only” gets Clay Matthews Money, then we’re looking at a more manageable $70-80M over 5-6 years, averaging $14M per year with a $20M signing bonus. Depending on the structure, that could put Houston’s cap hit as low as $5M in 2015, making him a much more retainable asset. Of course the other likely option is the franchise tag, under which Houston would make $13M in 2015, but that’s not a particularly palatable option for the Chiefs, as it would require several additional cuts to free up additional cap room beyond what I’ve outlined above. It’s certainly a possibility for the Chiefs but not as appetizing an option as you might think. If the Chiefs franchise Houston, it’s likely his camp will try to make the case that he is a defensive end, which could lead to a similar battle like the one Terrell Suggs put up with the Ravens a few years ago. If franchised as a defensive end, Houston would receive $14.68M in 2015, a significant jump and a number even less palatable to the team’s cap situation. The team also has two starting offensive linemen, Rodney Hudson and Ryan Harris, set to hit free agency. Despite early-season concerns, Hudson played all 1030 snaps on offense for the team at center and was solid. Ryan Harris ended up playing the majority of team snaps at RT and was passable. Neither player is critical to the team’s success, but neither should be particularly expensive to retain. Thoughts If they don’t retain him—and personally I don’t think they will—the Chiefs will struggle to replace Houston’s defensive output in 2015 and that could make things difficult as their pass defense was largely what kept them competitive in 2014. Once they’ve made their cuts, they’ll need to find a way to get both offensive weapons for Smith on the outside and bolster the run defense (as well as replace Houston’s output if they can’t come to an agreement). If they have to cut Johnson and DeVito, then they’ll be losing both a huge part of their pass rush and continuing to be weak against the run. If they don’t have that defense to fall back on in 2015, it could be a rough year. TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Jan 14, 2015 |
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Jan 14, 2015 14:16
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Nice write-up, but I have to disagree on a few of the moves. The Chiefs can easily get the cap space they need with the following moves: Dwayne Bowe (June 1 cut) - $11m Tamba Hali - $9m Chase Daniel - $3.8m Donnie Avery - $3.5m That gets us to ~$23m in cap room which will be plenty for Houston (franchise or extension) and rookie pool. There are a few additional things that can be done to free up some space (Fasano and DeVito) for free agents if needed.
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Jan 14, 2015 15:16
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why does Chase Daniel make so much money?
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Jan 14, 2015 15:17
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He got a pretty big contract in 2013 for a back up because a couple of teams were interested in him. I'm guessing Reid liked what he saw in case Alex Smith flamed out.
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Jan 14, 2015 15:35
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As far as backups go he's pretty good. They might even be able to trade him this offseason rather than cutting him, which should serve the same purpose to the cap number I believe. There are a few QB needy teams that have no good options. Buffalo would make sense but without much ammo as it is I don't see them giving up much.
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Jan 14, 2015 15:46
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excidium posted:Nice write-up, but I have to disagree on a few of the moves. The Chiefs can easily get the cap space they need with the following moves: They'll probably still have to cut Daniel and Avery in addition to the moves I suggested. $23M in space probably won't be enough to sign Houston and the rookies and also field a 53-man roster. Houston as a franchised LB takes $13M, plus around $6M for the rookie pool means the team needs $19M just for one player + rookies. And if Houston is franchised as a linebacker, I expect we'll hear talks of a holdout. Houston was already a potential holdout heading into the 2014 season and he'll have even more incentive to be a holdout heading into 2015. I agree that Avery is a likely cut after being banished to the bench (an oversight on my end--good catch!), but that's in addition to everything else. The team may keep Daniel, given that they won with him under center week 17 and it's hard to predict what a team will do with backup QBs. The thing about cutting Avery is that the average salary for a veteran receiver is not much less than he's making so if the team adds a veteran receiver to replace either Bowe or Avery the net savings from cutting Avery will be small. The same goes for Daniel, where the going rate for a "capable" veteran backup is between $1M and $4M per year. Daniel's cap hit is higher, but his base salary is $3.75M. Comparatively, Charlie Whitehurst is a $2M cap hit in 2015 and Matt Moore is a $5.5M cap hit. In a situation where you cut Daniel, you add $1M in dead money and save $3.8M. Then you still need a backup QB so you either make that Aaron Murray and Tyler Bray or you pick up another veteran backup who on the low end will cost $2M so your actual "savings" are only $1.8M, a much smaller net. Cutting Fasano only saves $2M and they'll still need to replace him with someone besides Demetrius Harris. I agree that there are other cuts to be made, just not that "there's plenty for Houston." The Chiefs aren't in a good situation, no matter how you want to paint it. With all the cuts on the table they can be looking at $30M in space but that disappears quickly when you have to allocate $13M to one guy for the franchise tag. Now you're really talking $10M and you need 2 wide receivers, a backup QB, a tight end, a LB to replace Hali, a DE to replace DeVito, plus you have to either find a new RT and C or re-sign those guys. If each of those guys only costs you $1M in cap space in 2015, that's another $8M. TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Jan 14, 2015 |
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Jan 14, 2015 15:49
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excidium posted:As far as backups go he's pretty good. They might even be able to trade him this offseason rather than cutting him, which should serve the same purpose to the cap number I believe. There are a few QB needy teams that have no good options. Buffalo would make sense but without much ammo as it is I don't see them giving up much. You can't just think about the math as cutting guys though--the positions need to be filled so it's not "what does Daniel cost?" but "How much more does Daniel cost than his replacement, who may not be on the current roster?"
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Jan 14, 2015 15:53
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TheChirurgeon posted:You can't just think about the math as cutting guys though--the positions need to be filled so it's not "what does Daniel cost?" but "How much more does Daniel cost than his replacement, who may not be on the current roster?" At this point we have 5 QBs on the roster: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray, Terelle Pryor. Bray has been in the system a few years now, Murray in his 2nd year, and Pryor just signed to a future/reserve contract. I don't think anyone assumes they are going into TC with 5 QBs. I would say they are most likely comfortable with Bray/Murray as #2, maybe even Pryor since he has starting experience. I think Daniel is as good as gone with his cap hit and the replacements are peanuts comparatively.
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Jan 14, 2015 16:15
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TheChirurgeon posted:Cutting Fasano only saves $2M and they'll still need to replace him with someone besides Demetrius Harris. I agree that they're not in a good situation, but I don't think it's as dire either. There are tough decisions to make with fan favorites that unfortunately come with the business side of things. As far as the guys you are talking about replacing, I think a lot of them are on the roster already. WR is a huge need obviously and I expect something to come from the draft and probably a reasonable FA signing. Backup QB between Bray/Murray/Pryor. Dee Ford was drafted #1 last year and should be ready to go for Hali. DE we have a few guys there with Vance Walker, Jaye Howard and Mike Catapano. I don't know what they're doing with RT as they benched Donald Stephenson for the whole year after his suspension, but I think a reasonable deal for Hudson should get done. Like you said, it's not good but with 11 picks in the draft this year I think we're going to start getting ourselves righted if they choose wisely.
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Jan 14, 2015 16:22
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excidium posted:I agree that they're not in a good situation, but I don't think it's as dire either. There are tough decisions to make with fan favorites that unfortunately come with the business side of things. As far as the guys you are talking about replacing, I think a lot of them are on the roster already. WR is a huge need obviously and I expect something to come from the draft and probably a reasonable FA signing. Backup QB between Bray/Murray/Pryor. Dee Ford was drafted #1 last year and should be ready to go for Hali. DE we have a few guys there with Vance Walker, Jaye Howard and Mike Catapano. I don't know what they're doing with RT as they benched Donald Stephenson for the whole year after his suspension, but I think a reasonable deal for Hudson should get done. Like you said, it's not good but with 11 picks in the draft this year I think we're going to start getting ourselves righted if they choose wisely. Fair enough--I don't know enough about the depth to know who is and is not a viable replacement at this point, just that the run defense minus Johnson and DeVito wasn't very good. I added a note to the write-up about Avery/Fasano/Daniel, but I still think Daniel stays on the roster--teams can be loathe to release dependable backup options when they perceive that they are a playoff team. I think keeping Hali is a smarter move than keeping Johnson, but that could go either way.
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Jan 14, 2015 16:33
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Thanks for making this annual thread Cowboy artist dude. Always informative and educational.
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Jan 14, 2015 16:34
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