- fiery_valkyrie
- Mar 26, 2003
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I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.
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quote:
Well that certainly took longer than expected but I finished my ISO of Pizza, which basically entailed reading through this entire god****ed thread again because he's everywhere.
Originally I was going to color code these to show how each post made me lean: town-mindset, scum-mindset, or either one. But then my laptop shut off on me and I lost everything I had, so I typed it up in Google Docs so I wouldn't lose it again, and now adding the color tags is simply too much of a chore. So I know it's just a huge wall of text, and I don't know if it will help others to read it in the same way that it helped me to write it, but it covers all the major events surrounding Pizza with post numbers so you can go back and reference those posts yourself.
#187 Says he isn't in WIM mode, that he won't be able to try too hard, the game happened at a bad time
#193 Opens up discussion with a scumread of Adaham's #51, votes Adaham
#195 provides a second take on Adaham by referencing "Skynet" and the "we/us" thing, but then later retracts Skynet's usefulness in #207. But he still built a read of Adaham around it. "I'm dusting off Skynet for this game".
#200 refutes Confuse rei's townie read on Adaham
#204 qualifies that a post by capp is the first thing he's felt distinctly villagery about so far. This would seem to match Pizza's n0 peak.
#210 puts capps, Yates and myself in his circle of trust, asks to be voted for if we think he's bull****ing us, quickly adds q_q to the mix in #211.
#218 implies again that capps is his peak
#220 reads Rei as scum with vague reasoning but seems to be based on Rei’s defense of Adaham and his accusation of capps
#230 Pizza confirms that capps is his fake peek n0.
#231 - 236 strong words for confuse rei. Threatens to come into day 2 with a wolf peek on him.
#237 gloats about how quickly he’s found the scum team
#240 more empty words against Rei when Rei tries to have a conversation about Pizza’s reads
#261 tells Rei to fight him lol but he pre-empts it with an accusation against himself. Using the words before Rei can.
#269 town-reads Iso after Iso follows Pizza’s vote for Adaham
#279 first truly genuine sounding thought process from Pizza so far, he says that solo bandwagons relieve the pressure for the wolves, wanting to open up discussion. Shows some restraint on his part for the first time
#283 asks Hibiki to vote for him, intention unclear
#287-288 more asking for votes so I guess this could just be his process
#299 adds coolkid to his circle of trust after one post
#324 tells Hibiki he can ignore him if he doesn’t like his style.
#327 asks for his scum reads to turn on each other. I can see both town and wolf motivations for this.
#343 says he’s going to ignore capps completely and let him do his own thing
#381 never voting for Iso
#417 when Banks asked Pizza for his thoughts on Yates, Pizza gave a nice read on him that seems to come with genuine thought process of Yates to that point
#421 Pizza says if Adaham flips wolf we should look at Pizza. I can’t untwist this pretzel, too much WIFOM.
#447-448 discusses why he thinks Rei’s comments are problematic by discussing mafia term semantics
#451 knocks his trust in Banks down a few pegs for a disagreement about tunneling
#457 seems to not take Banks’ line of questioning seriously when asking Pizza to back his words up
#464 says he’s not interested in proving his town-status to Banks, this honestly feels like genuine town apathy but I can see how it can be a confident wolf thing.
#486 identifies with a hard read on Banks being scum, not a normal post for a wolf to make if it isn’t true
#516 engages in discussion with Stardust, Pizza is on the offensive here but not with a bludgeoning device.
#539 switches vote to Road, seemingly to gauge reactions, satisfied with the case he’s made on Adaham which wasn’t gaining any momentum at the time. I lean scum on this shift in priorities, but can see the townie process behind it too.
#542 reinforces that he will switch back to Adaham if others vote that way, but cautions against a Chinese Fire Drill style type lynch. This is a townie-minded post.
#632 talking about everyone’s fake peeks
#692 surprised by the votes for road, explains that his own vote didn’t mean much. Could be genuine surprise or feigned while smirking at a job well done.
#706 reconsidering his reads though standing firm with his townie reads, I like this Pizza post
#712 mentions not wanting his emotions to be in control if he’s a wolf
#714 explaining his fake peek process from earlier to road, this goes on for a while, those who were there remember...
#733 engages in conversation with road, tells road to convince him he should remove his vote
#746 has no problem with people suspecting capps but does take issue with people voting for him, town-mindset
#762 town-centric mindset again while discussing fake peaks with road
#923 heavily reconsiders his Adaham suspicion, which I thought was a big townie-move because I had the same reaction at the time re: Adaham
#945 snap reads Iso as scum for how he reacted to Adaham’s posts
#946 quotes Stardust and says “This entire post is a wolf claim”.
#947 recognizes he should explain himself
#955 quotes Yates’ lean list and says it’s a wolf claim if Stardust flips scum, this feels like bullying in retrospect
#958 uses WIFOM to refute Stardust’s defense
#963 competently explains his stance re: Stardust vs Adaham
#982 presents a pretty involved theory on the current actions of an Adaham+Stardust scum team that makes me think he really believed it could be true
#993 good rebuttal against Stardust saying he wouldn’t waste his time if he was scum; Pizza pointed out that all scum do is waste their time
#1022 strong words for Stardust
#1025 plea to Banks to see the game the same way he is
#1029 votes Stardust
#1030 plea to leave mr. capps alone
#1035 admits to not having read capps’ case against me, and won’t do so until capps votes Stardust
#1039 explains his read on Stardust, acts 100% convinced
#1040
#1048 calls out for Yates to be the peek if Stardust flips TOWN. I can’t figure out the motivation for this post, it seems to go against what Pizza said in #955.
#1070 defends me in the face of a Stardust lynch, he really wants people to follow him here. If he were scum you’d think it would have been easy for him to stick with a road lynch while he had his vote there, but his switch to Stardust feels so assured... it just seems like a tough sequence of events to fake.
#1074 comfortable narrowing the focus onto Stardust and Turnip trains as Banks commanded
#1076 manipulating capps’ vote again
#1090 asks people to hold off on discussing Hibuki, to keep the focus on the two trains that Banks proposed
#1101 says I look bad based on vote tallies, again says we should table discussion on Hibuki.
Day 2
#1411 apologizes for leading the lynch on Stardust, says he doesn’t usually read a scum so confidently like that on Day 1. Seems explanatory and a preemptive self-defense, which could be a townie-mindset just as well, but I don’t know, Pizza has acted confident with basically all of his scum reads in this game.
#1412 commends q_q for his seer cover and explains it was the reason he backed off his road vote, which had previously been unexplained.
#1418 votes Yates for perceived seer hunting
#1428 attacks Yates for doing a 180 on Stardust. I’m on the fence on how I feel about this, it seems there is nothing Yates can do to not be on Pizza’s radar in this situation. Pizza has him in a Catch-22 to this point.
#1431 self awareness about not being killed, says he needs to be the N2 peak
#1433 some convoluted logic about capps being scum based on Pizza’s peak, I don’t really follow what he’s saying here but it seems worth noting
#1435 challenges our ability to read him, says he is usually a mysterious player
#1438 says he’s mislynched as town and never lynched as wolf, says if he leads a lynch on town he NEEDS to be peaked.
#1441 uses seer cover to defend the players on Yates’ radar and thus accuse Yates, specifically saying Yates’ bottom 4 players are all town, which is mathematically impossible for the cop to have intel on at this stage, so I’m not sure why Pizza used this seer cover if not other than to attack Yates with it.
#1444 case post on Yates, scumreading him based on Yates including 14 players on his lean list
#1446 asks for help finding Yates’ partners
#1448 trolling Yates
#1455-56 well developed reasoning against Yates while trying to discern who his scum buddies are
#1459 seer hunting by asking me to confirm my n0 Yates peak was fake, saying my cover is blown, I don’t believe that is the case.
#1460 discusses his Yates read with road
#1465 feeds his own ego about the thought of Yates accurately scum-lynching Pizza
#1476 removes his seer cover from capps
#1481 discusses how his seer cover for capps did not work so he dropped it
#1482 pushes capps and Yates together as a scum team. What I can’t figure out is why Pizza felt he needed to drop his seer cover to go after capps today when he can go after Yates today and drop his cover Day 3 if Yates flips wolf. Dropping seer cover is a good way to make yourself a less valid nightkill target though. Not at all sure how I feel about Pizza dropping cover at this moment, I can’t figure out the motivation.
#1503 asks for cooperation from Capps to find the wolves
#1508 admits to Capps that he hasn’t given any good reasons for defending me so far. If Pizza is scum he would know I’m town, and maybe he’s at a loss for how to come up with a good reason to not suspect me. In that case I’m not sure why Pizza just wouldn’t shrug his shoulders and suspect me just because. Thanks Capps for calling him on it.
#1509 now he’s unlocking Capps as scum, that was a quick turnaround
#1511 more outward confidence in his scum reads
#1528 says he assumed road was q_q’s fake peak while simultaneously admitting that q_q never left an explicit peak.
#1531 in-depth analysis of q_q’s reads
#1532 concludes that q_q’s reads/death implicates Yates and capps
#1534 asks Yates to fight him
#1535 accuses Yates of no longer solving, which is not objectively true, as Yates was the first player to analyze q_q’s reads, which is something Pizza also did so he must feel that it is gamesolving, and Yates was attacking Pizza, so that’s gamesolving too. So this statement seems simply not true.
#1540 more taunting of Yates sounding confident and infallible
#1543 says he could have lied about not having work and hid from the thread today if he was a wolf. But I honestly just don’t even think that’s Pizza’s style, he wants to be in the middle of the fray as often as he can.
#1545 simultaneously accuses Yates of coming after him HARD and CAUTIOUSLY due to Pizza’s perceived lack of momentum on a Yates lynch causing Yates to grow more confident.
#1557 says he could conceivably distance with Road the way he did on Day 1 if they were teammates.
#1562 realizes his behavior is bad for town if he’s wrong about Yates.
#1567 detailed seer hunting in thread... blows other players’ cover based on his OWN reads, then lists a scum team of capps, Rei and Yates with Yates being the priority.
#1570 narrows focus onto Yates and Rei, again says Yates is outed
#1574 tells Banks he is not concerned with analyzing Day 1 EoD, says it was town vs town, which is consistent with his read of me and correct.
#1620 adds me as an alternate to his scum team citing interaction with capps.
#1631 says Yates is not town because Yates didn’t put a fight up against him, despite the fact that Yates DID attack Pizza.
#1644 says he doesn’t get rustled as a wolf, and would be less confident if he thought Yates was innocent, that seems a convenient position to be in if Pizza is a wolf.
#1646 accuses Yates of giving up, I didn’t get the same impression for Yates so I’m thinking this is only in Pizza’s head.
#1649 engages in meaningful conversation with Yates for IMO the first time
#1651 says Yates played well as a wolf, admires his genius, MVP level, despite the fact that Pizza is also claiming to have caught Yates in an incredible simple manner. What he’s saying doesn’t match up with how he’s acted re: his Yates suspicion up to this point. Maybe he was being facetious and mean, but that doesn’t seem like Pizza’s style, so it seems like more of his super confident shtick that he apologized for on Day 1 and said he never does.
#1660 switches his vote to Capps, forcibly removing Yates from his scum radar, only after Yates has claimed a wolf peak on Pizza.
#1661 reminds the thread that he dropped his seer cover on Capps.
#1692 engages in meaningful back and forth with Yates about Yates’ wolf-peak on Pizza. Analyzes everyone’s reactions to it and concludes that not many are taking the claim seriously.
#1694 confident about capps being scum now, and throws out Rei, Coolkid and Banks as potential bussers. I think it’s just as likely that Pizza is the one doing the bussing here, but obviously he’s not going to point that out.
#1696 Pizza has now completely flipped his position/reads due to Yates crying wolf
#1705 asks Capps why Capps isn’t voting for him
#1750 points out that Rei suspected capps and only wouldn’t vote for him because of Pizza’s fake peak, which I agree with him, it does look like it could be planned bussing.
#1752 keeps mentioning how the wolves planned to bus capps, but Pizza is the one who is going after capps the hardest at this point, so again it looks like HE could be the busser.
#1761 clarifies his bussing theory which indirectly exonerates Pizza since it’s his blown cover seer that he says set in motion the bussing, which doesn’t seem like a great bussing plan to me, since nobody took the fake peak seriously in the first place, and the timing of Pizza removing his seer cover seems random.
#1823 a TON of self-aware analysis about Pizza’s play so far. I really like certain parts of this post, but I’m not discounting that the entire thing could be bull****. If it is BS, Pizza basically deserves the win.
#1855 switches Yates out of his scum team, replaces him with Hibiki
#1879 asks Banks to drop his fake peak of Rei. This seems like more seer hunting, but I’m entertaining the possibility that I’m reading that wrong.
#1894-5 demonstrates his reads of Capps and Rei, tosses Hibuki in as an afterthought
#1908 draws attention to his earlier mention of Hibuki and claims to have “been there first”
#1912 demanding to be read as a villager or he will continue to strong arm the game.
#1919 uses his previous reads to logically deduce he is a townie. The logic does not make sense to me but I don’t know if his reads are right or not, and he seems to know that.
#1945 says he’ll never make it through the game if he’s a wolf. That seems to directly contradict what he told us in #1438.
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From all this I get the feeling that Pizza is trying to strongarm the thread, in order to either solve the game all by himself or lead the entire town astray by taking control.
I don't think Yates is the seer, I don't think his claim on Pizza was true, but I think the way Pizza reacted to it is telling. He backed off Yates immediately, switched gears and went after Capps (blowing his seer cover first to do so), then set to work on building a team around Capps. If Yates DID call Pizza out correctly with his peak, if PIZZA believes Yates is the seer, then it is absolutely not in Pizza's interest to pursue a Yates lynch, because we'd certainly lynch Pizza next. So instead he turns on his teammate who he tried to protect on Day 1 but gave up on today in the interest of self preservation.
This is all assuming Capps is bad too, and some of the Capps/Pizza interaction is a little over the top, particularly from Capps' side, so I don't know that I completely buy them as teammates hamming it up with each other. I think Capps+Rei could be more likely, as Pizza himself suggested.
As far as capps goes, I found myself agreeing with his analysis of Pizza's gameplay but not his tone or his anger levels. I don't understand why Capp is playing with such vitriol atm. He could be an angry villager but it always feels like he's got a holier than thou sort of attitude with the players he interacts with. I get the feeling that Capps thinks he is above this game, but my mafia experiences tell me that's not necessarily a scum tell. And Pizza is right, Capp spent most of the game saying he didn't suspect Pizza and only disagreed with his methods, but Capps ultimately has voted for Pizza. In a bit of irony though, Pizza basically did the same thing to Capps by defending him then voting him out of nowhere. That's why I think this could be a bussing situation.
If Pizza is scum I think his teammates are Capps and one of either Soneji and Hibuki. Slight possibility it could be Road but based on the seer conversation they had on Day 1 I don't think so and I still feel good about road.
If Pizza is not scum but Capps is, I think Capps' teammates could be Confuse Rei and either Hibuki or Soneji.
I really need to reread Hibuki and Soneji because they are blending together in my mind, but this has been exhausting so I'm going to post this, take a quick break and get back to those shortly. I am up way way too late tbh, but with the pace of this game I guess I don't have time to sleep and work and play.
In my opinion the two wagons today should be Mr.Capps and Pizza, but I'll take a look at Soneji and Hibuki and see if there's anything there that holds up well independent of these other reads... voting Askthepizzaguy for now.
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Apr 30, 2015 07:42
capps
