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IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos
China is China. They'll probably just loop around into another expansionary/stagnation cycle. Consolidate their gains. Invent a bunch of cool poo poo (last time it was paper and gunpowder, this time it might be a missile for the Su-27 that'll gently caress the Joint Strike Fighter right up, which isn't much to aim for considering the F-35's inability to simply fly, so I bet it will actually be something genuinely interesting like a carrier-fucker or a super-worm).

So, they conquer a bit, form a powerful government to control that bit, no one dares oppose them. Then they slink into stagnation for another two thousand years while the rest of the world moves ahead. China survives because it doesn't bother to gently caress with other people, it doesn't really support terrorists or guerrillas or freedom-fighters or anything, it might throw a bit out here and there but in the same way you'd chuck some change at a hobo to stop him bugging you, not with any effort or real support at least, and it doesn't bomb some little country that just so happens to have a government it doesn't approve of, China merely looks to its own borders. North Korea is an exception but that was more a personal Mao/Korean-guy thing, and it's a constant drain on their economy and they regret it every second.

Hell, you delete the US Navy and Marines and that particular ability to project power and the United States would start looking hungrily towards its more nearby neighbors when the people start getting antsy. So it isn't a China thing, more like an empire thing.

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IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Moridin920 posted:

China doesn't even know.

They're like a dog chasing an ambulance.

What happens when the dog catches the ambulance?

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

a creepy colon posted:

I, along with many insane Americans will fight to the loving death to hold on to our #1 ranking in the world. I will kill so many chinese its not even funny

It's still in your favour, no denying that, but the gap is closing. Soon it will even up, then they'll overtake you. I know my country will be drawn into it on your side, as a base for ancient bombers easily shot out of the sky, and our own elite troops sacrificed, but that aside it'd be funny to see your gung-ho manifest-destiny attitude impale itself on a great wall of dedicated defence. I genuinely think you'll achieve naval victory, really I do, but you'll lose so much in doing so, you won't even be able to project power beyond the visual horizon of your pitifully few frigates. And every day constant harassment. Any land battle after that is laughable. And no one is foolish enough to grant you access to their ports and roads for a real invasion. You couldn't even do a real invasion anyway, you could barely handle little old Iraq.

You want to kill Chinese, but how? What are you going to do?

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Moridin920 posted:

lol if you think we can't carpet bomb China flat

we had our kiddie gloves on for Iraq and Afghanistan. youtube search 'shock and awe iraq' for the initial parts of the war and imagine that but in all your cities and it doesn't end after just a couple nights.

you think we can achieve naval victory but you ignore that our ships can shell things from dozens of miles away and most of your people live near the coast.

anyway your tom clancy fantasy isn't going to happen because we have no reason to invade China. they assemble all our widgets for us.

I think you can't. I really think it is beyond you without a Total War type effort.

Conventional war you still win, fine, they might sue for peace. You are still above parity, you can probably defeat them in a regular war. You gain air power, SEAD/DEAD disables their defences if you're very very good. Then what? What is gained? Your economy is trashed because you depend upon them, well they depend on you too so China is hosed, but it's about you how are you sitting? You would have lost a huge proportion of your air power. Chances are one of their subs would have got a lucky hit too. Dead sailors and pilots on the political agenda.

This isn't Iraq, you can't invade. What's next?

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Fojar38 posted:

the us economy can survive without china

the chinese economy cannot survive without america

dont need to invade just blockade

Doesn't matter what happens to China. What does America think? Forget the enemy, how would a war effect you? Do you really care what happens to some islands? You didn't care about Tibet.

Personally, I reckon every island on the western side of the Pacific could be taken by China before the average American is willing to pay an extra few dollars for consumer goods. There won't be war. Some guy will introduce a bill for trade limitations, and prices will burst, so everyone will argue for the old status quo. And back to normal.

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Moridin920 posted:

Why would we need to do a land invasion? This isn't 1700 we don't care about land anymore.

We'll just blockade you and shut your economy down until you're screaming for mercy.

You're saying we would have a naval victory and air superiority but that we wouldn't win the war? Come on lol. Yeah we'd take losses (it's war) but just lol if you think the Chinese military is just barely behind the US military. The US is mounting lasers on its warships, China just bought a wooden aircraft carrier.

You envision a war in which the USA isn't just fighting China but is already at China's door fighting on Chinese soil/air/water. That's already a major tactical disadvantage. Yeah you'll shoot some of our planes down, we'll make more. You won't be able to, because all your factories and war materiel will get shelled immediately.

And honestly ending Chinese cheap labor and resources flooding into our market would suck for a bit but in the long run would probably do a lot to revitalize domestic industry and manufacturing.

I heard the F-35 can be handily shot down by the old SA-5. Confirm/deny? We all know the SA-10 and 11 have no problems with it.

But who needs to defeat the US with warfare, their own nepotism and corruption will do it on their own. Besides, countries aren't owned by governments anymore. And it just so happens that China's resources are too valuable to be destroyed in war. Lots of money in there. I wouldn't be surprised if every missile you have simply fails to detonate on contact with a Chinese military asset. Run the numbers, it's more profitable that way.

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Fojar38 posted:

i read that

see the thing is that those treasury bonds can only be exchanged for us dollars, so the only way china can exchange them for their own currency is by selling them to another country such as japan

ie the effect on the dollar would be negligable

the larger concern is what might happen if china STOPS buying us bonds in which case the fed will probably pick up the slack in order to avoid devaluation

Devaluation will spike with suddenly reduced demand, but pick up again as people pick up on that. But China and USA aren't the only economies in the world. Brazil, Mexico, Canada, UK, EU, etc will start buying up cheap bonds. Bonds will probably never be unprofitable, despite what preppers think, or despite wars. Or even because of wars. Oh ho ho ho! Remember the socialist utopia of the 40s when the rich were taxed to the limit to pay for the war?

I've changed my mind, a total war with China would not be a bad thing, if it got the top marginal tax rates above 90% again, but this time involved a minimal loss of life. Wealth would be allocated to education, kids would be taught physics in places like Texas again. You need physics to pilot drones after all. War was the only time the rich fuckers started paying their fair share and people were actually looked after. Hmm, war is still stupid but the irony of all that is palpable.

IronClaymore fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Jun 11, 2015

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Zeno-25 posted:

China has some scary missiles that could do a lot of damage to the US Navy if the ships got close enough to the mainland, that's why the Navy is going to put fuckoff lasers on their ships in a decade so they can just shoot any missiles or planes down and sail everywhere with impunity

:10bux: says right now that those lasers can't fire when it's raining. (Well they can fire but they disperse and suffer so much blooming that it's more likely some seaman gets blinded than that you shoot down a missile.)

Edit: ^^^ actually you don't have to sink a carrier. They're pretty hard to sink anyway apparently, but every knot of speed you knock off them fucks up their ability to mess with you. Kill their speed enough or cause enough apparently minor damage and their only flight operations will be for self-defence, from then on who cares, it's like you've got a bunch of missile destroyers.

IronClaymore fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Jun 11, 2015

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

solaranus posted:

good news is if the US can keep it up for a few months the chinese navy will get owned by desertion

Sure about that? Remember how convincing the idea is that a war is bad for both countries? Overall, it doesn't cost much to convince a United States officer that he shouldn't fight, that he's only bombing innocent people, and he's sending young boys off to fight. After all, that man is a true patriot, a son of America, a man (or woman) who safeguards that nation's freedom and prosperity. War is bad, and bloodshed, any bloodshed, but especially the loss of another vibrant young American, is wrong.

Well whatever I'm not trained for this, but ideas can be introduced to certain people, making them receptive to the idea of helping the other side in order to achieve peace for everyone.

So is Chinese nationalism really weaker than American? Maybe the ambassadors themselves will defect and produce peace. But men don't fight for a wage or medals, they fight for those beside them, and in that at least you are both equal.

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Robo Reagan posted:

kinetic weapons are probably going to gently caress fleets up pretty badly

Yeah, wouldn't want to be on the damage control detail of the ship that's firing the weapon, that's for sure.

...

Oh who am I kidding, I'd take the job. drat railgun probably split the ship in half. Better get hazard pay though.
(Ok I'd do it without hazard pay.)

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Fojar38 posted:

real life naval warfare isnt like eve online and actually even hitting a ship with a missle is really loving hard let alone sinking the most massive ships on the seas

Heh, last I heard a ship was once sunk back in 1967 or something by a missile. I don't think even my mom was born back then. Lends a kinda farcical air to everything really, we have all these missiles and electronic warfare jammers and stuff, but it hasn't really been used, as least with ships. Training is good but doesn't really count.

F-16 Vipers, export, are shot down occasionally by man-portable air-defence sure, but only when they're flying low and slow doing close air support. And a ship shot down an Iranian passenger jet once and the captain got a medal for it blah blah blah. Point is, never really tested against an enemy with the same technology. Landing a missile on a ship is hard, yes, but making a decent ship worthy of a missile is even harder.

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Robo Reagan posted:

i say we start a war with china/russia it will be cathartic for everyone involved and it doesnt even have to be over anything for real just park some ships around some small island or whatever and murder each other for a few months then the refs will decide who won and then both sides can go back to the drawing board for a few years it'll be fun for everyone

Agreed. It doesn't even have to be a proper war. Just the idea of war. The propaganda of war. Let it be fought with drones and stuff. Let merchants pass unharmed and unhampered beneath.

War has a way of bringing out the best in people, and if we can utilise that without people actually dying we'd really be in business. But it brings out the best in a nation as a whole, but only if there's a nemesis. We need a villain to rail against.

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Fojar38 posted:

the chinese dont have technological parity with the americans and the chinese would be the first to admit that

Duh. Classic con. Lull them into a false sense of security and air power. Then turn on the radars and let loose the missiles of war!

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Fojar38 posted:

those inscrutable orientals, always playing the long game

What? No, basic airpower tactics. Anti-SEAD stuff or whatever they call it. The Chinese could have an advantage in this thing.

They set up a basic screen of poo poo, enough to be viable, we wreck it down, ok fine. The air strikes go hog wild on military positions. But secretly these are poo poo military positions. Low value divisions, prisoners and so forth. Wait until a bunch of strike aircraft are in the country, then you go live. Every plane is lit up like a Christmas Tree, a dozen radars pinging off them. The scrambled interceptors don't even have to turn on their own radars, the ground stuff guides the missiles right in.


Ok it isn't that simple. But they'll definitely keep long range radars and missiles in reserve. And no matter how many Sukhoi's you shoot down (each of which will be a pain BTW, and omg the Su-27 is gorgeous), they'll keep that threat up.

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Arkanomen posted:

1. Every military target in China is a low value division.

2. The U.S. most likely has complete satellite and drone coverage of China and knows where every defense station, radar facility, command post, power plant etc is

3. After picking out actual targets, unmanned drones, high altitude bombers and long range cruise missiles go in and gently caress everything up and keep loving them up until there is nothing to challenge any incoming fighter jets.

You are an idiot.

Counterpoint: either saturate the field with various targets that deserve destruction to disguise the truly valuable assets.

Or B: classic shell game - learn the capability of your enemy's reconnaissance, provide him targets to destroy, don't make it too easy, but keep your true assets hidden, not on the true list of targets. So they strike everything else. Hell, you could hide a radar, let the enemy discover it, let them bomb it, remove radar coverage from that area, but the "radar" was merely paper! Even better, "allow" details of secret bunkers to be leaked to the enemy, execute "traitors" for betraying you, allow the enemy spy to escape, let the enemy waste bombs on the "secret" bases.

Keep in mind that you are perfectly correct and that I am an idiot. And I have watched far too many spy movies and read too many spy books. So what sort of countermeasures would a non-idiot come up with?


[Edit] Classic prank scenario would be to slowly release details of a massive nuclear missile silo and nuke construction base, in some wilderness area, and release the info so subtly that the enemy is convinced it is vital, and sends everything that have at it, only to drop bombs on barren ground and be shot to poo poo on the way back home.

IronClaymore fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Jun 11, 2015

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Fojar38 posted:

dont go to war with the us because they are much more powerful than you and still have blue balls from the cold war

An appropriate metaphor. Two people meet on the dance floor. A chick with outrageous muscles and a dude who's super quick and mobile. They know instinctively that they can't defeat each other, not without wrecking themselves. They disagree on politics but not all that much really, they just want to dance and fight and work out together. But they are both really really really embarrassed.

Anyway the guy gets blue balls and starts loving everyone. While the chick gets taken oven by a guy who's a spy and doesn't like to wear a shirt. Creepier than it sounds.

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

BrianPhillips posted:

Isn't he dead and it's just a bunch of ghost(recon) writers doing it all?

He'd been employing ghost-writers ever since Sum of All Fears. In other words the last 20 years of his life were pure alcohol, chicks, partying, and american flags. It's the goal you know, the ultimate author heaven - make a pile and spend it on hookers and blow for 20 years.

IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Flo Cytometer posted:

..and yet somehow Stephen King still has (some) audience.

Gotta milk the revenue stream. Every sold book is a tenth of a blowjob.

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IronClaymore
Jun 30, 2010

by Athanatos

Fairly passive posted:

This thread needs to have less war fantasy bullshit and more information about where to find and how to impress the best chinese girls. Enquiring minds want to know.

The Christian ones tend to be converts, as in they're fundamentalists. Pretend to be a bible basher, or at least a fundamentalist christian yourself. As long as you can fake believing in god, you'll be fine with her, just watch out for the no-sex-before-marriage crowd. (But you can do I bit at this level, not really satisfying but meh in the end you have a date to things, and if you can break her inhibitions she's end up being really freaky...in a good way.)

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