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Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
I suspect Goldie Potsby-Mahn as well. If you assume she's the culprit, everything fits neatly: she lied about seeing someone run away. There was never anyone on the balcony, and her story about "a very muscular man, dressed all in black" could easily have been a spur-of-the-moment invention inspired by her hearing the TV show that was playing in the bedroom. It starred "Roscoe Strapping", which certainly sounds like a name that would belong to a very muscular man.

The bath had no traces of the victim's blood, so she can't have been showering the blood off herself. However, if she knew where to stab someone from behind, she might have managed to get all the blood on the towel that she held in front of herself (or was wrapped in).

Scenario: she wraps a towel around herself, takes a kitchen knife, and stabs him in the back. Then she wipes off the knife with the towel, opens the balcony door, and breaks a window to suggest a burglar breaking in. She then drops the towel outside where the fictitious burglar would have dropped it in a getaway, closes the balcony door, puts the cleaned knife back in the rack, and steps into the shower before the security guard has reached the room. He knocks, she puts on a bathrobe and answers the door, and tells him her story about seeing a muscular man in black running away.

It all fits.

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Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
I think they're hinting at the murder weapon being a bundle of uncooked spaghetti, which was then boiled to remove any trace of blood from it. Which makes no sense -- uncooked spaghetti would be brittle and would shatter before you could stab someone with it, even if it was rolled up in a bundle -- but that would explain the pasta boiling in a pot, in an apartment where they ate nothing but take-out.

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!

After reading this line, my first guess was "It was a suicide. She loaded the fake gun with a real bullet, knowing that she'd be shot and killed with it, to take revenge (for some reason yet to be revealed) on her fellow actor, who would naturally be devastated." The second gunshot in the dark kind of puts that guess to rest... but I take lines like "No one could've guessed the real culprit" as a challenge.

Now to read the clues...

Edit to respond to two posts up from me:

PlaceholderPigeon posted:

Whats with that lubrication line behind the set and why is the replica gun swimming in it? Would it be to cover something? Or move the ladder?

Why does the note have a bullet hole in it? One would imagine the typical process would be to shoot the gun, and then place the note, but that would mean that the note would be intact. Unless the note was supposed to be on there during the play itself.

I think

PlaceholderPigeon posted:

Whats with that lubrication line behind the set and why is the replica gun swimming in it? Would it be to cover something? Or move the ladder?

Why does the note have a bullet hole in it? One would imagine the typical process would be to shoot the gun, and then place the note, but that would mean that the note would be intact. Unless the note was supposed to be on there during the play itself.

I think the lubrication line comes from the glove (not a bare hand, as no fingerprints were found) of whoever was holding the fake gun. That person (either Roscoe or Destiny) felt their way backstage to the rubbish bin, and tossed the squib and the replica gun into the bin (though in the dark, they missed the bin with the replica gun and it fell on the ground instead).

The note has a bullet hole in it because it was in her pocket when she was shot. And the bullet hole in the painting means that when she was shot, she was standing up on her stage position mark (stage position A), and the lethal bullet fired from the direction of stage position B. It could have been Roscoe who fired it, whether knowing or not knowing that he held a real gun rather than a fake, or it could have been someone further back.

The scenario I see is this:

Gloria is standing on stage position A, the note in her pocket. Roscoe has a real gun in his hand when he walks up to position B and pulls the trigger. Gloria is supposed to have the squib, but someone else triggers the squib just before the fatal shot, thus leading to the real blood being on top of the fake blood. (Why they did this, I don't know). It seems a bit much to have Roscoe doing all of that, so perhaps Destiny was the one to trigger the squib?

Okay, here's a theory that covers all the facts we know so far:

Roscoe and Destiny were having an affair. Gloria found out about it and decided to confront Roscoe. She typed up a note to hand to him and put it in her pocket for later. Roscoe and Destiny find out that Gloria knows, and collaborate to dispose of her. Roscoe shoots Gloria with the real gun (while Destiny triggers the squib and then tosses it in the trash), then heads backstage and ... assaults Bray (the stagehand) in the pitch dark? How'd he know where Bray would be standing? My theory needs some work. Well, I have to go now so I'll work on it some more later. But right now I suspect that Roscoe and Destiny collaborated on this murder. (Though I also can't rule out that Gloria decided to commit public suicide to get back at Roscoe for cheating on her, and enlisted Bray's help in the process. I'll work on that theory later too.)

Tax Refund fucked around with this message at 17:14 on Aug 5, 2015

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
Yeah, the statements don't add up. I'm particularly suspicious of Roscoe - why would you go back to your dressing room while the play was still on? But whoever's lying, someone is: his statement and Destiny's statement just don't jibe.

Good point about the door: it makes more sense for someone to be feeling his/her way from the door to the ladder. The fake gun was ditched right outside the stage door, then whoever ditched it felt his/her way over to the ladder (to attack Bray, I think).

I've been thinking about the suicide theory, and it can't account for Bray being attacked unless there's an accomplice to the suicide. Gloria can't have been the one who attacked Bray: in the suicide theory, she died from the first bullet shot, and the second shot was her accomplice firing off the fake gun (which would, after all, look suspicious if it hadn't been fired once.) So if Gloria deliberately planned her own death, then one of the other three was her accomplice - and since the accomplice would have had to be the one to scream, that means her accomplice would have had to be Destiny Knox: neither Roscoe Strapping nor Bray Clegg could do a convincing woman's scream. But Destiny could easily have screamed and been mistaken for Gloria - we only have her word for it that she recognized the scream as Gloria's.

That scream really bothers me, actually. If she was killed by the second shot, during the dark... why would she scream? Why would she have any reason to be worried? She got "shot" just as scripted, the fake blood splatter went off as it should, and now she stands up to leave the stage... and would have no reason to think anything was wrong until the fatal shot killed her. Thus, she wouldn't have screamed. But if she was killed by the first shot... she still wouldn't have screamed. So either the scream was recorded, or I need to suspect Destiny, who's the only female among the suspects (a man, even an actor, couldn't do a convincing woman's scream unless he was a REALLY high tenor). But it could have been recorded, which still leaves the door open to suspect Roscoe.

I don't suspect Bray, unless he's an accomplice. He could possibly have inflicted a single blow to the head on himself by hitting his head against the ladder, but multiple blows to the back of the head? No, I don't think he could have inflicted those on himself. I think he was really attacked in the dark, by whoever wanted to frame him. The killer hit Bray several times with the butt of the (real) revolver, just as depicted in the game image, and then put the revolver into Bray's hand while he was unconscious. Fingerprints aren't going to help, as both Roscoe and Destiny were wearing gloves... but if the gloves stained with lubricating oil turn up anywhere, they'll be useful evidence.

And here's another thing that's bothering me. If Gloria was shot during the blackout, why was she standing up? When you're playing a corpse, you lie still and don't move. So unless the next scene was supposed to be "elsewhere in the house", she shouldn't have been standing up in the first place, and the bullet that killed her should have gone into the floor rather than into the painting on the wall. That strongly suggests to me that the first shot killed her, but then we have to account for the scream and for the real blood being inside the fake blood.

...

Okay, here's a theory that seems to work. Destiny Knox is the culprit. She switched the fake gun for a real gun, then was standing just off-stage when Roscoe pulled the trigger. She knew the scene, so she knew precisely at which point he would shoot, and just before he pulled the trigger, she set off the squib via remote control. She then tossed the remote into the trash, and walked on stage in time to collide with Roscoe and draw everyone's attention to the fact that she was on-stage. Meanwhile, off-stage, Roscoe puts the gun down backstage right where he's supposed to, still thinking it's the fake gun, and heads to his dressing room just as he said. Meanwhile, Destiny swaps the fake gun (in her hand) with the real gun (on the ground where Roscoe left it), and feels her way down the backstage wall until she reaches the ladder, where Bray is. She knocks him out with the butt of the pistol, puts it in his hand, then heads back on stage, picking up the fake gun in the process. (Why put it down and pick it up again? That doesn't add up). She then screams (pitching her voice to sound like Gloria), fires the fake gun... and tosses it through the stage door before the lights come back up. And so there she is, on her stage mark like she's supposed to.

There's only one problem I can see with this theory, which is: why would she put the fake gun down and pick it up again later? It would make more sense for her to keep it in her pocket the whole time, but then that wouldn't explain the smear of lubricating oil on the backstage wall. Apart from that, this theory explains every piece of physical evidence in the scene. (As far as I know - if anyone can knock holes in this theory, please do so.)

EDIT:

vvvvvvv My impression was that the lights going out was a scripted part of the play (fade to black, set up next scene, bring up lights). If someone turned the lights out when they weren't supposed to go out, then how would the stage manager have been able to bring them up in a hurry when he heard the second gunshot? vvvvvvv

Tax Refund fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Aug 6, 2015

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
(Note: I haven't read anyone else's posts before writing the following.)

What we can conclude from the physical evidence:

O'Logie was killed instantly with one axe blow. (The axe came from the wood chopping block outside). The murderer then tied fishing line around O'Logie, or around the axe handle (can't tell which yet), looped it over the rafters, and tied the other end to the door (or something), so that when the door was opened, it would pull on the fishing line. That caused everyone to see O'Logie lurch out of the chair and towards them, even though he was already dead with an axe in his head.

The murderer entered and exited the room by unscrewing the door, and then re-screwing it. He missed a screw, or he couldn't get it into its spot because its threads had become jammed with mud. (I have a guess about why it was muddy, but more on that later). This would not have worked if anyone had been alert, but both O'Logie and Doug Scowers were dead drunk from the local liquor, so the murderer could take his time with the door. The murderer is also the one who called the front desk, wiping his prints off the intercom afterwards.

There might be a problem with timing: after Mariana Etista got the call at 11, she came almost immediately to the hut (after getting backup). The murderer could reasonably have expected that to happen, so he would have known he didn't have much time to fiddle with the door. Could you hook a door on its hinges and screw it in in just a couple minutes? Hmm, maybe.

At any rate, who does this leave as the most likely suspect? Well, I suspect Chico Careta. He gave O'Logie the alcohol specifically so that O'Logie would be dead drunk; getting Doug Scowers drunk was a nice bonus. And he didn't call the front desk at 11, he called at 10:45 or so, and told his fiancée "Wait until 11, then say that you got a call from O'Logie screaming about a demon." I don't know if she realized at the time that she was helping to cover up a murder; he might just have told her that he was going to steal the idol back. (The other crates weren't touched, just the one the stone idol was in, which also suggests that the idol was connected to the murderer's motive).

Okay, now I'm going to read the other posts in the thread so far.

Edit: Excellent point about the crates having been opened in alphabetical order. If Chico was after the idol, he wouldn't have opened crates A or B; we know he knew it was in crate C since his fingerprints were on the notebook where that was written down. I think I'm going to switch my suspicions to Mariana Etista, though I can't rule out Chico Careta entirely: since the two are engaged, it's entirely possible that they planned the whole thing together.

Also, I think the aluminium suitcase which "looks weighty" is going to be part of the fishing-line contraption, maybe the counterweight on the other end set up so that when the door opened, it would fall and pull O'Logie's body upright. I can't figure out the physics of the room's layout, but maybe it was balanced on top of one or two of the tall signs, with the wire running across the ceiling in such a way that the door opening would tug on the wire and knock the suitcase down?

Tax Refund fucked around with this message at 07:50 on Aug 30, 2015

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
Has to be Mariana: if she wasn't in on it, she would have recognized her fiancé's voice even over a bad intercom connection. But she said that it was O'Logie screaming for help on the phone, even though there's no way she didn't recognize Chico's voice. She knew about the whole thing beforehand.

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
That yellow handkerchief is drawing my attention. Dread wrote a note on there before the show happened, so he was planning on something happening. Was he planning to murder his guest, Dolly Hollerday, but he drank the wrong cup of tea by mistake?

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
Unlike most interviewed-first characters, Dolly Hollerday is persuading me that she's innocent. Saying, "No, no, he died of poison immediately after eating the food that I brought for him" is something that would only be said by: a) an innocent person, or b) a criminal playing a pretty deep game. And while Dolly might be many other things, "deep" is not something I'd believe of her.

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!

HydroSphere posted:

Good golly, you even found a perfume bottle full of poison next to her, didn't you?[/i]

Gotcha now! I don't know if we're going to be required to produce evidence that Mr. de Bonair was lying, but he just proved that he saw the perfume bottle before it was smashed to unrecognizable bits. And therefore, was the murderer. (That's circumstantial enough that it wouldn't hold up in any real court, but it's probably good enough for this game.)

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
I'd guess the books should be pushed in in the order shown on the clock, counting clockwise from 3 o'clock: Cat Compendium, Tea Total, Identikit Cars, Gran Smith's Diet (apple). Failing that, try Cat Compendium, Gran Smith's Diet, Identikit Cars, Tea Total -- WC might be "the opposite of clockwise", though I can't figure out how the acronym works.

As for the animals, we're missing any clues relating to the rhinoceros, so I'm guessing another note will be found inside the bathroom. Right now we know dog is first, but the order after that could be bull/rhino/pig, rhino/bull/pig, or bull/pig/rhino, and all of those would be consistent with the clues we've seen.

I'm guessing the rickety old key in the dresser is the winder for the music box. It's either that or the key to the cabinet with the animal goblets.

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
Well, that last note gives the final clue needed for the animal goblets:

The order is dog/bull/pig/rhino, then the fire will go out in the fireplace and that will be the entrance to the secret room.

If you don't want us to post the solutions we come up with to the puzzles, let me know and I'll edit that out, of course.

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!

Glazius posted:

Okay, I can buy clever clockwork for everything else, but how is this going to work?

Chemical residues?

Eh, the Layton series has always had a very open relationship with conventional physics.

I can come up with a handwavy explanation easily enough:

The fireplace isn't actually burning wood; the wood is there to disguise the gas flame that's coming up from below. Each shelf is a weight-sensitive pressure plate, and when the goblet that goes on that shelf is full of water, the weight is enough to set off the pressure plate. They're linked to a (handwave) complicated clockwork mechanism that, when the four plates are activated in the correct order, shuts the valve controlling the flow of gas to the fireplace, so that the fire goes out.

But "a very open relationship with conventional physics" is probably the canon explanation, e.g. "there is no explanation, it just works, now go catch that criminal."

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!

HydroSphere posted:

If you get the order wrong, the goblets still remain full of water.

How would that even... you know what, never mind. "It's just a show game; I should really just relax."

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!
I haven't played this, so I'll give solving it a shot.

Only thing I can see so far from those photos is that Dog leaves the room at 12:42 without his leather sachel. He goes back in at 12:43, and emerges at 12:44 carrying it in his hand.

I've also been looking for any height and weight differences between one suspect and another, to see if anyone pulled off a mask or clothing swap with someone else, and found nothing. Height and weight match mask and clothing throughout.

Spoiler-tagged my observations so others can look for themselves if they want, before reading my thoughts.

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!

Glazius posted:

Oh, it's not this simple. Lucy's got a long way to go before she's a proper detective.

Certainly not. I'm pretty sure Hen was looking guilty because she found her master dead, and took the opportunity to go through his wallet rather than reporting it to anyone. Which narrows it down to Cat (who knows about the camera and might have had a way to disable it), Dog, or Donkey.

Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!

JamieTheD posted:

Agreed. My money's on Cat, because she wasn't seen going in that time. We're being toyed with somehow... :/

Hmm. Perhaps the camera only saves one image per minute, and she knows that? If so, then after making sure she got caught on camera leaving, she turns right back around and goes into the room. She brains her husband with the ashtray, hides the body so Dog and Donkey don't see him when they come in, and hides herself somewhere in the room (?? this is questionable). Dog comes in, thinks Pig is late, and waits for him. Donkey comes in later, and both Dog and Donkey realize that something's wrong, so they search the room and find Pig's body (but not Cat?). Neither one wants to be part of a police investigation, so once they find the body, they leave. Dog goes back with his satchel as an excuse, and ... I don't know, maybe he grabs his IOU from Pig's papers and stuffs it in his bag, so that now there's no proof that he owed Pig money. But he comes right back out, and he and Donkey leave together, co-conspirators in silence but not actually murderers.

It's not a great theory yet, especially the bit about the camera. But it holds together and isn't (as far as I know) contradicted by any of the known facts.

Also, the fact that Pig drank some tea and scones, and died with a scone half-eaten, suggests that he died before Dog came in, which points at Cat.

Edit: But it means that Cat didn't just turn around and go back into the room: there had to have been time for Pig to drink some of the tea and eat one of the scones. No, she probably went by some other route, maybe coming in through a secret entrance that she knows about. That bookshelf is pinging my secret-entrance radar, honestly.

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Tax Refund
Apr 15, 2011

The IRS gave me a refund. I spent it on this SA account. What was I thinking?!

HydroSphere posted:

So I ask you, Lucy. Who killed Diane? Can there really be any doubt?



No option to pick "Diane Makepeace" here, even though the positioning of her body and the gun makes it abundantly obvious that she shot herself?

I really feel like we're being railroaded through this case.

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