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Harlock
Jan 15, 2006

Tap "A" to drink!!!

Winning good, losing bad. Getting on base good, making outs bad.

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Dr. Tommy John
Feb 20, 2004

"Just a few more ligaments and this baby can shoot 90!"
He literally owns a packers share and then you say he doesn't seem like an idiot.

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE

seiferguy posted:

The Mariners are doing a conference for introducing Scott Servais, so far he's said this:

- The team needs to do a better job getting on base
- Needs to focus on pitching and defense more
- Says veterans "carry the load" but young guys "bring energy. And we need energy right now."
- Says advanced metrics are important, "if you try to fight it, you end up losing"
- Says Jim Riggleman and Dusty Baker are managers he admires :ohdear:
- He's a Packers shareholder

So far some good stuff on OBP and advanced metrics in general. It's all fluff, but hey he doesn't seem like a complete total idiot!

Scott Servais is a cool dude

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Groucho Marxist posted:

I would maybe quit following baseball forever if my team decided on a 5 year tank

The Cubs were nearly on that plan, I guess it was more like a 4 year tank.

leokitty
Apr 5, 2005

I live. I die. I live again.
The Cubs' draft plan didn't "work out" anyway if you look at their picks. Honestly, same goes for the Astros and the Astros really really tried hard to game things knowing that the #1 pick is what you really need.

Thom P. Tiers
May 29, 2008

Red Birds
Red Ass
Red Text

Dr. Tommy John posted:

He literally owns a packers share and then you say he doesn't seem like an idiot.

People pay money for sports memorabilia, not sure how this makes you an idiot. Other than probably the 20% who bought it because they thought it really meant something. All my friends who own one know it does nothing and it's just hanging on their wall in a frame.

The Berzerker
Feb 24, 2006

treat me like a dog


http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/155574080/alex-anthopoulos-addresses-media-wraps-up-15

N: Anthopoulos gets asked about the status of his contract which is up in five days, doesn't want to talk about it.
V: I hope he stays.

TheHoosier
Dec 30, 2004

The fuck, Graham?!

Groucho Marxist posted:

I would maybe quit following baseball forever if my team decided on a 5 year tank

some teams are so good at it you don't even know they're doing it on purpose

Thom P. Tiers
May 29, 2008

Red Birds
Red Ass
Red Text

LeftistMuslimObama posted:

A team that thinks it can compete doesn't flip Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers for prospects.

But Santana has already been contributing and I'm assuming you will see Phillips in September. You flipped him so you could compete sooner because you weren't going to resign him. They need to figure out how to get Nelson, Jungmann, and Peralta to click. You should be trying to compete within 3 years, but yes, it is a very difficult division in its current state so I can see why fans of the Reds/Brewers would think this is a crazy idea.

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION



Toilet Rascal

Dr. Tommy John posted:

He literally owns a packers share and then you say he doesn't seem like an idiot.

I don't know much about Packers' fandom, but I had a coworker who was from the area talk about how the Packers were about to release new stocks and that he needed to get on it. I even said "why bother buying it? It doesn't give you any rights" and he basically said "unless you're from Wisconsin, you wouldn't understand." And this was a manager who made serious financial decisions for the company.

Sports fans are irrational, some more irrational than others. And the Packers being a full-on socialist organization being owned by the people is somewhat cool. And as a Seattle fan, I have no ill will towards the Packers, because I'll always have the Fail Mary and the NFCCG.

The MUMPSorceress
Jan 6, 2012


^SHTPSTS

Gary’s Answer

Thom P. Tiers posted:

But Santana has already been contributing and I'm assuming you will see Phillips in September. You flipped him so you could compete sooner because you weren't going to resign him. They need to figure out how to get Nelson, Jungmann, and Peralta to click. You should be trying to compete within 3 years, but yes, it is a very difficult division in its current state so I can see why fans of the Reds/Brewers would think this is a crazy idea.

Doug Melvin's playoffs every 3 years plan is what put us into the situation where our farm was empty and things needed to be torn down. I'd rather suck for 5+ years resulting in a team that's competitive for at least 5 years than rush a rebuild and continue to be a mediocre team that depends on unsustainable hot streaks to even appear to compete.

Although I agree with you that pitching is the biggest problem. The Brewers have a ton of hot-and-cold power bats that can drive in a lot of runs over a whole season, but the pitching hasn't been able to keep them in the close games. I'm too lazy to count them, but there were quite a few games that were 0-0 for 5+ innings with the brewers scoring 1 run late in the game (usually off a dinger) and then the pitcher melting down the next inning. I read some analysis that showed that if even 50% of those games had had the pitcher lock down the next inning after the Brewers score, we would have at least had a winning record this year.

Thom P. Tiers
May 29, 2008

Red Birds
Red Ass
Red Text

seiferguy posted:

I don't know much about Packers' fandom, but I had a coworker who was from the area talk about how the Packers were about to release new stocks and that he needed to get on it. I even said "why bother buying it? It doesn't give you any rights" and he basically said "unless you're from Wisconsin, you wouldn't understand." And this was a manager who made serious financial decisions for the company.

Sports fans are irrational, some more irrational than others. And the Packers being a full-on socialist organization being owned by the people is somewhat cool. And as a Seattle fan, I have no ill will towards the Packers, because I'll always have the Fail Mary and the NFCCG.

It's basically a donation to fund stadium improvements and supporting that area of Green Bay (around Lambeau). Voluntary stadium tax donations as opposed to mandatory ones and you get a cool piece of paper to frame and also make bad jokes about going to the shareholders meeting next year and demanding changes.

If he literally bought it thinking he was getting some sort of cool rights in an NFL team then yea he is an idiot, but it's a small minority who actually believe that.

The MUMPSorceress
Jan 6, 2012


^SHTPSTS

Gary’s Answer

Dr. Tommy John posted:

He literally owns a packers share and then you say he doesn't seem like an idiot.

Person is cool and good, does cool and good things and buys cool and good stuff, is an idiot.

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION



Toilet Rascal

Thom P. Tiers posted:

It's basically a donation to fund stadium improvements and supporting that area of Green Bay (around Lambeau). Voluntary stadium tax donations as opposed to mandatory ones and you get a cool piece of paper to frame and also make bad jokes about going to the shareholders meeting next year and demanding changes.

If he literally bought it thinking he was getting some sort of cool rights in an NFL team then yea he is an idiot, but it's a small minority who actually believe that.

All he said was a Packers shareholder, and said it tepidly because he probably felt like he had just offended everyone in the room when he said it.

Thom P. Tiers
May 29, 2008

Red Birds
Red Ass
Red Text

LeftistMuslimObama posted:

Doug Melvin's playoffs every 3 years plan is what put us into the situation where our farm was empty and things needed to be torn down. I'd rather suck for 5+ years resulting in a team that's competitive for at least 5 years than rush a rebuild and continue to be a mediocre team that depends on unsustainable hot streaks to even appear to compete.


I feel like Doug Melvin's plans were "we can win with this team" every single year no matter what he did or didn't do in the offseason. He made no effort to rebuild ever during his reign as GM (except for the initial rebuild when he got there in 2002). He took over a bad team in 2002, made it into a decent team by 2007, one that could compete for several years, and then ever since 2012 he just kept thinking he could turn whatever he had into a competing team, and never really showed why he thought that.

Basically what I'm saying is it needed to be torn down in 2013 and he didn't do that, so now they are stuck with a rebuild in 2016 instead.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Do you smell what The Mauk is cooking?

Dr. Tommy John posted:

He literally owns a packers share and then you say he doesn't seem like an idiot.

This was funny and I'm sorry people got their feelings hurt

Dr. Tommy John
Feb 20, 2004

"Just a few more ligaments and this baby can shoot 90!"
i honestly had no idea that packers shares being dumb and mockable was a take, let alone a hot one

Thom P. Tiers
May 29, 2008

Red Birds
Red Ass
Red Text
I guess I missed the joke

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
Kris Bryant wins NL Rookie of the Year.

By Sporting News...

Popete fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Oct 26, 2015

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

Groucho Marxist posted:

I would maybe quit following baseball forever if my team decided on a 5 year tank

If you're the Reds or the Brewers what's the alternative, hoping that the 3 teams you finished between 26 and 33 games behind this year all simultaneously explode into fine mist or have massive young talent regressions while you luck into a 90+ win year with what you have right now + whatever you pick up in free agency and what your farm can develop in the next year or two?

If the division were one good team and 4 interchangeable ~.500 teams you can hope and wish yourself into July contention but looking at any reasonable projection of the NL Central from now until 2020 what series of miracles need to happen for either Milwaukee or Cincinnati to finish 1st or 2nd?

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

The Berzerker posted:

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/155574080/alex-anthopoulos-addresses-media-wraps-up-15

N: Anthopoulos gets asked about the status of his contract which is up in five days, doesn't want to talk about it.
V: I hope he stays.

He was on McCown a week ago and said something to the effect of him thinking that a GM's contract details should never be leaked, which is why he is saying they are "private conversations" here. I don't think there should be any worry that he's leaving.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Do you smell what The Mauk is cooking?
It is extremely improbable that the same three teams in a division will all win 97+ games in a season for five straight years. You go for your window based on how far away your talent is, not being afraid to try because other teams are good.

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair

Groucho Marxist posted:

It is extremely improbable that the same three teams in a division will all win 97+ games in a season for five straight years. You go for your window based on how far away your talent is, not being afraid to try because other teams are good.

Yeah, the window metaphor is you opening your own, not closing everybody else's.

oldfan
Jul 22, 2007

"Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."
The Royals spent a solid two years getting crushed by the sabermetric set for going for it, and have won consecutive pennants.

The Mets got absolutely crushed by the sabermetric set for going for it just this year after getting absolutely crushed by the sabermetric set for not tanking hard enough, and they just won the pennant.

The Astros, who are the "success" of the tanking franchises, got nearly none of the assets on their first playoff team from the actual tank itself. And their two tank for 1-1 drafts (2013 and 2014) are both looking shaky as heck, albeit at a very early stage.

This isn't the NBA. And the hard tank only "works" for one team at a time anyways because the systemic advantages are only at 1-1 under this CBA.

Geoff Peterson
Jan 1, 2012

by exmarx
Dunno which thread this goes in, but Torii is retiring:

http://www.startribune.com/longtime-twins-star-torii-hunter-decides-to-retire/337283601/

I assume MLB/ESPN hosting gigs are in his future as he decides if he wants to try out coaching. Otherwise I get the hunch he's got a lifetime "Special Ambassador" spot open with the Twins.

DICKS FOR DINNER
Sep 6, 2008

Stand Proud

Thom P. Tiers posted:

I feel like Doug Melvin's plans were "we can win with this team" every single year no matter what he did or didn't do in the offseason. He made no effort to rebuild ever during his reign as GM (except for the initial rebuild when he got there in 2002). He took over a bad team in 2002, made it into a decent team by 2007, one that could compete for several years, and then ever since 2012 he just kept thinking he could turn whatever he had into a competing team, and never really showed why he thought that.

Basically what I'm saying is it needed to be torn down in 2013 and he didn't do that, so now they are stuck with a rebuild in 2016 instead.

FWIW I have never been able to get a solid bead on whether the Brewers' insistence on trying to sneak into the playoffs as a wild card with a mediocre team was on Melvin or on ownership. They both were publicly in support of bumbling about with a 78-win quality team, though, so it doesn't really matter that much.

That's why I feel like this year happening was a good thing for them in the long run, because now the organization seems to realize that signing solid but aging pitchers in a rotating door of desperation isn't the way to actually consistently compete. So yeah, the tear down needed to happen earlier, but at least it happened at all.

Grozz Nuy
Feb 21, 2008

Welcome to Moonside.

Wecomel to Soonmide.

Moonwel ot cosidme.

Carlosologist posted:

Alex Gordon will probably be closer to 20M per year given how well he's hit over the last five years. Durability isn't an issue either, no idea why that anonymous GM thinks Gordon is only worth 12-13M given that offense is still at a premium

Remember when Alex Gordon was on track to being a Frenchy-level bust? Baseball's weird.

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

jeffersonlives posted:

The Royals spent a solid two years getting crushed by the sabermetric set for going for it, and have won consecutive pennants.

The Mets got absolutely crushed by the sabermetric set for going for it just this year after getting absolutely crushed by the sabermetric set for not tanking hard enough, and they just won the pennant.

Both the 2014 Royals and the 2015 Mets also benefited from regression - in the Royals case, the first AL season in the two WC era that went to a sub-90 win team and in the case of the Mets having a +11 improvement season at the same time the Nats had a -13 win collapse (not to mention an overall weak East that allowed a 90-win division champion since the 89-win Phillies in 2007.) Neither team was more than 9 games out of a playoff spot the year before.

Since the advent of the 10-team playoffs the average playoff team has 92.9 wins. The average WC team has 91 wins. The lowest win total was 86. If you're a team like the Royals (86 wins 2013, within striking WC distance) or the Mets (potential for amazing rotation via young/recovering arms + taking advantage of a softer than expected division) you can reasonably pull the trigger on winning now. If you're the Brewers and you're 30 games back right now, even a 2013-level Red Sox one year turnaround (28 wins) doesn't even get you a Wild Card spot without regressions from the rest of the division. That is a team that under even unreasonable circumstances is 2-3 years away from contending/lucking their way into a WC spot and that assumes their farm is strong enough to develop MLB talent, the office is willing to spend on the FA market (or trade away the farm in July for a rental) and the teams ahead of you do not also improve.

will_colorado
Jun 30, 2007

Geoff Peterson posted:

Dunno which thread this goes in, but Torii is retiring:

http://www.startribune.com/longtime-twins-star-torii-hunter-decides-to-retire/337283601/

I assume MLB/ESPN hosting gigs are in his future as he decides if he wants to try out coaching. Otherwise I get the hunch he's got a lifetime "Special Ambassador" spot open with the Twins.

who's going to fill that void left on the Minnesota Twins' bad opinion production?

oldfan
Jul 22, 2007

"Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

CubsWoo posted:

Both the 2014 Royals and the 2015 Mets also benefited from regression - in the Royals case, the first AL season in the two WC era that went to a sub-90 win team and in the case of the Mets having a +11 improvement season at the same time the Nats had a -13 win collapse (not to mention an overall weak East that allowed a 90-win division champion since the 89-win Phillies in 2007.) Neither team was more than 9 games out of a playoff spot the year before.

Since the advent of the 10-team playoffs the average playoff team has 92.9 wins. The average WC team has 91 wins. The lowest win total was 86. If you're a team like the Royals (86 wins 2013, within striking WC distance) or the Mets (potential for amazing rotation via young/recovering arms + taking advantage of a softer than expected division) you can reasonably pull the trigger on winning now. If you're the Brewers and you're 30 games back right now, even a 2013-level Red Sox one year turnaround (28 wins) doesn't even get you a Wild Card spot without regressions from the rest of the division. That is a team that under even unreasonable circumstances is 2-3 years away from contending/lucking their way into a WC spot and that assumes their farm is strong enough to develop MLB talent, the office is willing to spend on the FA market (or trade away the farm in July for a rental) and the teams ahead of you do not also improve.

This is basically the exact same low info poo poo Dave Cameron was writing about the 2015 Rangers six months ago. It was funny then too

Dr. Tommy John
Feb 20, 2004

"Just a few more ligaments and this baby can shoot 90!"
I enjoy the general sabermetric adherence to projected win curve, but ignorance of the real one.

oldfan
Jul 22, 2007

"Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."
Three 2015 playoff teams finished 15 or more games out of the playoffs in 2014. One of them was even the Cubs!

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair

Dr. Tommy John posted:

I enjoy the general sabermetric adherence to projected win curve, but ignorance of the real one.

:agreed:

Accident Underwater
Oct 21, 2005

You look like a star!

TheHoosier posted:

some teams are so good at it you don't even know they're doing it on purpose

Other than the Astros, the long term bad teams are just mismanaged and not outright trying to suck. The Mariners have sunk over a billion dollars in payroll since they last made the playoffs. Even the Marlins aren't tanking/rebuilding.

rickiep00h
Aug 16, 2010

BATDANCE


will_colorado posted:

who's going to fill that void left on the Minnesota Twins' bad opinion production?

Torii Hunter: racist scum, clubhouse dance machine, runner into-er of walls.

I would have loved to have Span back over Hunter, but that's just me. In any case, he'll still get his statue or whatever outside Target Field, they'll retire his number, and hopefully all we'll hear from him is when he waves at the camera during Hrbek's promos.

Dr. Tommy John
Feb 20, 2004

"Just a few more ligaments and this baby can shoot 90!"
lol if you think torii doesn't have a long and infuriating broadcasting career ahead of him

TheHoosier
Dec 30, 2004

The fuck, Graham?!

Accident Underwater posted:

Other than the Astros, the long term bad teams are just mismanaged and not outright trying to suck. The Mariners have sunk over a billion dollars in payroll since they last made the playoffs. Even the Marlins aren't tanking/rebuilding.

Honestly I find it extremely hard to believe ANY professional team in any professional sport would "tank" in this day and age. These guys are so drat competitive and egotistical there's no way they'd allow themselves to lose over and over again on the slim chance at a #1 draft pick that might not pan out. The idea of intentionally tanking is hilarious and we all like the joke, but I'd be shocked if they were doing it. Though the idea of the Padres or Brewers intentionally being poo poo year in and year out in an attempt at landing the Baseball Messiah is awesome

Dr. Tommy John
Feb 20, 2004

"Just a few more ligaments and this baby can shoot 90!"

TheHoosier posted:

Honestly I find it extremely hard to believe ANY professional team in any professional sport would "tank" in this day and age. These guys are so drat competitive and egotistical there's no way they'd allow themselves to lose over and over again on the slim chance at a #1 draft pick that might not pan out. The idea of intentionally tanking is hilarious and we all like the joke, but I'd be shocked if they were doing it. Though the idea of the Padres or Brewers intentionally being poo poo year in and year out in an attempt at landing the Baseball Messiah is awesome

tanking in baseball is done by the ownership at the roster/lineup construction level, not by the players hth

TheHoosier
Dec 30, 2004

The fuck, Graham?!

Dr. Tommy John posted:

tanking in baseball is done by the ownership at the roster/lineup construction level, not by the players hth

yeah that's true. I was thinking about the 2011 Colts and thought " well gently caress, those players didnt mean to lose that many games, but man they were bad..." so yeah agreed.

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Ammat The Ankh
Sep 7, 2010

Now, attempt to defeat me!
And I shall become a living legend!
Since the MLB draft is such a crapshoot you probably don't need a number one pick to grab a franchise player anyway.

Clayton Kershaw - picked 7th 2006
Giancarlo Stanton - picked 76th 2007
Buster Posey - picked 5th 2008
Mike Trout - picked 25th 2009
Nolan Arenado - picked 59th 2009
Jacob deGrom - picked 272nd(!) 2010

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