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Let's talk about predictions of the future which are invoked as settled fact, look at their track record, and ask for timeframes. We'll start with Australia. When in the 1990s Australia transitioned from strong gun laws to a de facto ban, crime did not go down at a significantly greater rate than previously. Everyone marginally informed on the gun control debate is aware of this and how gun advocates claim it as a slam dunk case that Gun Laws Do Nothing. One way or another, that's not what I'd like to address here. My question is: Since Australia banned firearms, why hasn't it yet collapsed into totalitarianism or a Hobbesian war of all-against-all as is predicted in all the theories of gun advocacy, and when can we expect this to happen? First, we are generally told that, upon a gun ban, crime will not "continue to decrease at about the same rate." We are told that it will greatly increase, as law-abiding citizens will no longer have access to firearms to defend themselves but criminals will. Obviously this hasn't happened yet, but when is it supposed to? Do criminals in Australia still have access to firearms? In Australia, the homicide rate is 1.1. Of these, about 14% are committed with firearms. In the US, the homicide rate is 4.5 and about 69% are committed with firearms. So, in addition to having less than 25% the total murder rate, Australia has 5% the murder rate with firearms as the US. It's not just murder. The Australian rate of armed robbery with a firearm is 15%. In America it is 71%. The American armed robbery rate is 88.7. The Australian armed robbery rate is 34.7. So in America the rate of armed robbery with a firearm is 63 per 100,000. In Australia it is 5.2. So, in addition to having less than 40% the armed robbery rate, they also have 8% the American rate of armed robbery with a firearm. With this in mind: When can we expect these rates of crime with firearms to grow at least 12 to 20 times to at least match the US rate? Rates of crime with firearms have been decreasing there to this point. Will this occur on some timetable or in response to some event, such as Australia creating a Purge Night? Australia has problems, as does any country. Political scandals, racism, austerity measures. However it remains a functional democracy, and has the second-highest Human Development Index in the world; not much better than the US's HDI at #5, but worth noting. Question the second: Having disarmed the populace, when is the Australian government going to go (choose according to your politics) [fascist/communist/ZOG] and exterminate the [proletariat/taxpayers/pure white race]? This is a major thing we are told will happen upon passage of a gun ban, but it hasn't occurred in almost 20 years since the ban. When can we expect this? I'd like to visit before it happens. Maybe there would have been a politically vague revolution we would all have agreed with in Australia, which was forestalled by the lack of gun availability. Sadly, this is impossible to prove one way or another. But in the same time, the United States, which did not ban firearms, has not had this revolution despite being hit substantially harder by [the banking crisis/political correctness/minorities]. How do we explain this, and when are these guns going to be used to commit the revolution that all the good people like? Will I have time to finish my Christmas shopping? To shift gears a bit, I also notice that the major reason that so many gun advocates are opposed to registration is that it allows the government to know where all the guns are and round them up, presumably before instituting the totalitarianism. Several confusing questions arise from this claim. First, there are nations such as Norway, New Zealand and Switzerland which have universal gun registration yet have yet to confiscate all their citizens' guns or become dictatorships. When can we expect this? I notice that Canada had a universal gun registry, but didn't confiscate everybody's guns, let alone become Commie-Nazis, and later rescinded this universal registry and apparently destroyed the records. When, roughly, will this be revealed to be a huge trick? The US does not have a gun registry. It has, however, a vast spying apparatus that has access to all forms of electronic communication. Gun owners carry their geo-locating cell phones with them while they go to gun stores and gun ranges. They get hunting licenses. They buy guns and ammunition with means other than cash. They enroll in the membership rolls of the NRA, and subscribe to magazines about guns. They openly display bumper stickers demonstrating their gun possession. They display their guns and talk about their gun ownership, often to near-strangers. They visit gun advocacy websites without proxies and post about their guns on the internet, often under their real name and/or with pictures. So with all of this it seems like it would be relatively trivial for the government to know where a great majority of the guns were and round them up, especially if targeted the stereotypically bloviating gun advocate. And yet the government has not, to this point. When shall this occur? How much popcorn will I need?
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Dec 2, 2015 03:28
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| # ? Apr 27, 2024 12:43 |
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Disband the military and disarm the government.
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Dec 2, 2015 04:27
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Tezzor posted:My question is: Since Australia banned firearms, why hasn't it yet collapsed into totalitarianism or a Hobbesian war of all-against-all as is predicted in all the theories of gun advocacy, Because that phenomenon isn't real. quote:and when can we expect this to happen? Never quote:First, we are generally told that, upon a gun ban, crime will not "continue to decrease at about the same rate." We are told that it will greatly increase, as law-abiding citizens will no longer have access to firearms to defend themselves but criminals will. Obviously this hasn't happened yet, but when is it supposed to? Never, because the idea of citizens preventing crime with guns is a treasured myth. quote:Do criminals in Australia still have access to firearms? In Australia, the homicide rate is 1.1. Of these, about 14% are committed with firearms. In the US, the homicide rate is 4.5 and about 69% are committed with firearms. So, in addition to having less than 25% the total murder rate, Australia has 5% the murder rate with firearms as the US. Never quote:Rates of crime with firearms have been decreasing there to this point. Will this occur on some timetable or in response to some event, such as Australia creating a Purge Night? Not unless it's a purge of aborigines or refugees. quote:Australia has problems, as does any country. Political scandals, racism, austerity measures. However it remains a functional democracy, and has the second-highest Human Development Index in the world; not much better than the US's HDI at #5, but worth noting. Question the second: Having disarmed the populace, when is the Australian government going to go (choose according to your politics) [fascist/communist/ZOG] and exterminate the [proletariat/taxpayers/pure white race]? Never quote:This is a major thing we are told will happen upon passage of a gun ban, but it hasn't occurred in almost 20 years since the ban. When can we expect this? I'd like to visit before it happens. People are indolent and prefer peace to war quote:and when are these guns going to be used to commit the revolution that all the good people like? Never quote:Will I have time to finish my Christmas shopping? Yes. quote:To shift gears a bit, I also notice that the major reason that so many gun advocates are opposed to registration is that it allows the government to know where all the guns are and round them up, presumably before instituting the totalitarianism. Several confusing questions arise from this claim. First, there are nations such as Norway, New Zealand and Switzerland which have universal gun registration yet have yet to confiscate all their citizens' guns or become dictatorships. When can we expect this? Never quote:I notice that Canada had a universal gun registry, but didn't confiscate everybody's guns, let alone become Commie-Nazis, and later rescinded this universal registry and apparently destroyed the records. When, roughly, will this be revealed to be a huge trick? Never quote:The US does not have a gun registry. It has, however, a vast spying apparatus that has access to all forms of electronic communication. Gun owners carry their geo-locating cell phones with them while they go to gun stores and gun ranges. They get hunting licenses. They buy guns and ammunition with means other than cash. They enroll in the membership rolls of the NRA, and subscribe to magazines about guns. They openly display bumper stickers demonstrating their gun possession. They display their guns and talk about their gun ownership, often to near-strangers. They visit gun advocacy websites without proxies and post about their guns on the internet, often under their real name and/or with pictures. So with all of this it seems like it would be relatively trivial for the government to know where a great majority of the guns were and round them up, especially if targeted the stereotypically bloviating gun advocate. And yet the government has not, to this point. When shall this occur? No time soon. quote:How much popcorn will I need? You don't need popcorn, no law-abiding citizen does. Eat rice cakes.
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Dec 2, 2015 04:37
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Australia does appear to be implementing some stupid bullshit laws around national security and surveillance that are pretty bad, but it's not like they wouldn't have done that in the absence of gun control and the US is worse in that regard anyway, guns or no guns. The thing about gun control that has always confused me is how it is a pretty big divisive issue and litmus test between the right and the left, at least in the US. In America if you're a liberal it's expected that you are in favor of strict gun control up to and including a total ban, and if you're a conservative you either support the status quo or maybe want to roll a few things back. But especially for liberals it seems to be a non-sequitur - it doesn't really follow from anything else that an American liberal will typically think or believe and as such it stands alone. I'm politically on the left and yet I'm probably more pro-gun than most American conservatives, yet I don't perceive any cognitive dissonance being such. Should I?
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Dec 2, 2015 04:59
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Kilroy posted:I'm politically on the left and yet I'm probably more pro-gun than most American conservatives, yet I don't perceive any cognitive dissonance being such. Should I? No. Even if you support gun control, it's more sensible to completely scrap the rhetoric the Democrats have slapped together over the last few decades and start over by looking at what actually could be effective. As you say, it's all just signaling to the base now--on both sides.
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Dec 2, 2015 05:08
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My biggest worry with very strict gun control in America isn't whether we have it or not, it's what the fallout would be after such restrictions were implemented. It would be as big a deal as the Civil Rights Act, except in the case of the Civil Rights Act you could at least point to the fact that we have civil rights, as a justification for being left in the political wilderness for 50 years and enabling e.g. the Southern Strategy and Reaganomics and all the other horrible poo poo that movement conservatism has wrought on America since then. That was worth it, but in the case of gun control, well the country will still be full of violent paranoid assholes, just now they can't buy guns. If that victory is important enough to sabotage the rest of the progressive agenda then go ahead, but I don't think it is. Basic income, single payer health care, highly-regulated capital markets, a top marginal income tax rate of 90%, and deep cuts to carbon emissions, are all realistic goals to have for 2040, and none of it will happen if the left gets even half of what it wants with regard to gun control.
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Dec 2, 2015 05:48
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Tezzor posted:Do criminals in Australia still have access to firearms? In Australia, the homicide rate is 1.1. Of these, about 14% are committed with firearms. In the US, the homicide rate is 4.5 and about 69% are committed with firearms. So, in addition to having less than 25% the total murder rate, Australia has 5% the murder rate with firearms as the US. If you do the math, the US non-firearms homicide rate is about 1.4, significantly higher than Australia's total homicide rate. So it's clear that there are factors other than the availability of guns at work here.
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Dec 2, 2015 05:49
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Kilroy posted:My biggest worry with very strict gun control in America isn't whether we have it or not, it's what the fallout would be after such restrictions were implemented. It would be as big a deal as the Civil Rights Act, except in the case of the Civil Rights Act you could at least point to the fact that we have civil rights, as a justification for being left in the political wilderness for 50 years and enabling e.g. the Southern Strategy and Reaganomics and all the other horrible poo poo that movement conservatism has wrought on America since then. That was worth it, but in the case of gun control, well the country will still be full of violent paranoid assholes, just now they can't buy guns. If that victory is important enough to sabotage the rest of the progressive agenda then go ahead, but I don't think it is. Basic income, single payer health care, highly-regulated capital markets, a top marginal income tax rate of 90%, and deep cuts to carbon emissions, are all realistic goals to have for 2040, and none of it will happen if the left gets even half of what it wants with regard to gun control. Even crazier than that to me is how these wedge issues play out in current events. Take the Paris attacks. Republicans started talking about monitoring Muslims, and Democrats started talking about restricting the gun rights of people on the no-fly list. Now who cares about gun rights in this instance--Democrats got manipulated into advocating for further restrictions on people who have been convicted of no crime, without batting an eye. That's what lets you know how worthless this issue has become, and how utterly divorced from progressive values.
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Dec 2, 2015 05:53
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Kilroy posted:Australia does appear to be implementing some stupid bullshit laws around national security and surveillance that are pretty bad, but it's not like they wouldn't have done that in the absence of gun control and the US is worse in that regard anyway, guns or no guns. Yes. Thousands of preventable deaths per year, mostly of the poor and/or minorities, is a more germane consideration than the desire by cretins to not be inconvenienced in their toy accessibility. Tezzor fucked around with this message at 07:14 on Dec 2, 2015 |
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Dec 2, 2015 07:11
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INH5 posted:If you do the math, the US non-firearms homicide rate is about 1.4, significantly higher than Australia's total homicide rate. So it's clear that there are factors other than the availability of guns at work here. Yes. Availability of guns is not the only factor, but it is a major factor.
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Dec 2, 2015 07:12
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I dunno Australia currently does run concentration camps for minorities...................Kilroy posted:
Rodatose fucked around with this message at 07:40 on Dec 2, 2015 |
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Dec 2, 2015 07:29
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Rodatose posted:The democratic party is not very 'on the left,' and they are probably not eager to have the kind of people sacco and vanzetti were or some striking miners with guns be part of their brand. Gun control doesn't really fit with an economic left-right axis Tezzor posted:Yes. Thousands of preventable deaths per year, mostly of the poor and/or minorities, is a more germane consideration than the desire by cretins to not be inconvenienced in their toy accessibility. Kilroy fucked around with this message at 09:59 on Dec 2, 2015 |
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Dec 2, 2015 09:57
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Gun control in the United States will not happen without a constitutional amendment. An accident of history has (depending on your point of view) either blessed the U.S with a gun culture or burdened it with one. It seems me even the most progressive politicians are loathe to say in public something like "may we some day have the conditions for a constitutional convention as to undo the 2nd amendment."
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Dec 2, 2015 10:04
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gun control isn't going to happen in your lifetime. sorry OPRodatose posted:I dunno Australia currently does run concentration camps for minorities................... rejection of American style gun culture most definitely fits on a social left-right axis, and the whole 'no war but class war' shtick is dumb, stop it icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 14:33 on Dec 2, 2015 |
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Dec 2, 2015 14:31
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icantfindaname posted:gun control isn't going to happen in your lifetime. sorry OP More questions: If this is true, and gun owners believe it, then why are they hoarding guns and ammunition? Why is every proposed meager local restriction on some firearm type invariably treated as though it is the vanguard of their eternal defeat?
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Dec 2, 2015 15:09
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Tezzor posted:More questions: If this is true, and gun owners believe it, then why are they hoarding guns and ammunition? Why is every proposed meager local restriction on some firearm type invariably treated as though it is the vanguard of their eternal defeat? Because it works and turns people out to vote
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Dec 2, 2015 15:15
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Why does it work if gun control will never happen and they believe that to be true? Isn't it more likely, given this behavior totally terrified of impending gun control, that "gun control will never happen" is just what they say in a pretty obvious attempt to try to convince people to not even try?
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Dec 2, 2015 15:23
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Tezzor posted:More questions: If this is true, and gun owners believe it, then why are they hoarding guns and ammunition? Why is every proposed meager local restriction on some firearm type invariably treated as though it is the vanguard of their eternal defeat? it's true but gun owners don't believe it
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Dec 2, 2015 15:25
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Tezzor posted:Why does it work if gun control will never happen and they believe that to be true? Isn't it more likely, given this behavior totally terrified of impending gun control, that "gun control will never happen" is just what they say in a pretty obvious attempt to try to convince people to not even try? Sure, probably. But like, they don't say that. They say the opposite, as you have detailed in your OP.
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Dec 2, 2015 15:26
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Because dumb conservatives are excessively scared of many things that aren't actually very dangerous to them, such as gays and browns
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Dec 2, 2015 15:34
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Tezzor posted:Why does it work if gun control will never happen and they believe that to be true? Isn't it more likely, given this behavior totally terrified of impending gun control, that "gun control will never happen" is just what they say in a pretty obvious attempt to try to convince people to not even try? Gun control could possibly happen if the American "left" i.e. Democrats decided to make it their hill to die on, and we have a (D) Prez until 2024 which gives enough time to stack the SCOTUS with justices who will decide that "well-regulated" means "bunch of laws" and/or "keep and bear" means "locked up at the nearest National Guard". It could happen. I don't think it will happen, and I think it would be a shame to throw away the rest of the progressive agenda - now that political moderates are just-barely-a-little-bit-baby-steps starting to pay attention to progressives and left-wing ideas for the first time in two generations - for something that is ultimately not that important. Even if you get everything you want wrt gun control, you're still going to have a nation with way too many pissed off rednecks, and if they can't have their guns they'll find other ways to harm their perceived enemies. Gun control would probably not have stopped Robert Dear, he would have just showed up with a pipe bomb or a few gallons of gasoline or drove through the front door at high speed, or who knows what. But you seem to be asking more like if people who think Wayne LaPierre is a Serious Person and that Fox News is liberal media, also think that gun control will never happen then why do they give a poo poo? And the answer is that they do think that gun control will happen because they think that Obama and the UN are going come for them in black helicopters and take their guns.
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Dec 2, 2015 15:39
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Meaningful gun control will never happen in this country in any of our lifetimes and not a single second or penny should be spent on pursuing it politically anymore. It's nothing but a colossal waste of time and resources that could be better spent working towards political goals that are actually achievable, like fixing our healthcare system, our welfare system, ending the war on drugs, repairing our failing infrastructure, ect.
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Dec 2, 2015 15:40
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Who What Now posted:Meaningful gun control will never happen in this country in any of our lifetimes and not a single second or penny should be spent on pursuing it politically anymore. It's nothing but a colossal waste of time and resources that could be better spent working towards political goals that are actually achievable, like fixing our healthcare system, our welfare system, ending the war on drugs, repairing our failing infrastructure, ect. Actually I think you will find that if you try to improve any of that, many people, in fact much the same people, will oppose you just as bitterly, and they will have the backing of more people who are motivated by their bank balances and not their toys or their ideology.
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Dec 2, 2015 19:06
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Who What Now posted:Meaningful gun control will never happen in this country in any of our lifetimes and not a single second or penny should be spent on pursuing it politically anymore. It's nothing but a colossal waste of time and resources that could be better spent working towards political goals that are actually achievable, like fixing our healthcare system, our welfare system, ending the war on drugs, repairing our failing infrastructure, ect. Interstellar travel, as well.
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Dec 2, 2015 19:08
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Who What Now posted:Meaningful gun control will never happen in this country in any of our lifetimes and not a single second or penny should be spent on pursuing it politically anymore. It's nothing but a colossal waste of time and resources that could be better spent working towards political goals that are actually achievable, like fixing our healthcare system, our welfare system, ending the war on drugs, repairing our failing infrastructure, ect. There's a strange beauty to this argument. We should drown our country in guns not because we need them or they protect our liberties or they deter crime, in fact the opposite we should keep selling them to anyone who wants to shoot up a kindergarten or a mall or whatever. We should reject all gun control not because it's all a sneaky incrementalist way to disarm us and let the blacks and/or communazi stormtroopers kill all white people. No no, we should do these things because enough motivated voting crazy people believe all this stuff and they will purposely gently caress the country out of spite if we don't cater to them. It's so beautiful, I can't think of a way to refute it.
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Dec 2, 2015 19:21
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Tezzor posted:Actually I think you will find that if you try to improve any of that, many people, in fact much the same people, will oppose you just as bitterly, and they will have the backing of more people who are motivated by their bank balances and not their toys or their ideology. Progress has been made on most of the other fronts, unlike gun control. Flowers For Algeria posted:Interstellar travel, as well. Sure, but I'd put it near the bottom of the list. VitalSigns posted:There's a strange beauty to this argument. We should drown our country in guns not because we need them or they protect our liberties or they deter crime, in fact the opposite we should keep selling them to anyone who wants to shoot up a kindergarten or a mall or whatever. We should reject all gun control not because it's all a sneaky incrementalist way to disarm us and let the blacks and/or communazi stormtroopers kill all white people. No no, we should do these things because enough motivated voting crazy people believe all this stuff and they will purposely gently caress the country out of spite if we don't cater to them. Yeah, pretty much. Too many people are willing to elect garbage politicians who will gleefully move the country towards burning nuclear destruction so long as they promise they won't let the mean liberals take away the bang-bang toys. Plus this country is so oversaturated with firearms it'll take a colossal amount of effort to even make a dent in getting rid of them. I hate that that's the reality of how things are right now, but I honestly don't see it changing any time in the future until at least the boomers and a good chunk of Gen Xers are dead and gone, and probably not even then.
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Dec 2, 2015 19:51
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starry skies above posted:It seems me even the most progressive politicians are loathe to say in public something like "may we some day have the conditions for a constitutional convention as to undo the 2nd amendment." I think a good chunk of that is just the recognition that any constitutional amendment is considered totally unfeasible at this point. The accepted wisdom at this point appears to be that any substantial change in the government or its powers is going to come from either reinterpreting or ignoring what's already there. It's hideous and grotesque, but that's democracy and sausages for you, I guess.
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Dec 2, 2015 20:22
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VitalSigns posted:There's a strange beauty to this argument. We should drown our country in guns not because we need them or they protect our liberties or they deter crime, in fact the opposite we should keep selling them to anyone who wants to shoot up a kindergarten or a mall or whatever. We should reject all gun control not because it's all a sneaky incrementalist way to disarm us and let the blacks and/or communazi stormtroopers kill all white people. No no, we should do these things because enough motivated voting crazy people believe all this stuff and they will purposely gently caress the country out of spite if we don't cater to them. Hopelessness and cynicism are the worst things that can happen to you when you're involved in politics and interested in changing policy. I see it a lot among ecologists, for example, and I find it takes a great deal of courage to ignore the naysaying and jaded voices in your head. But yeah it's hard to come to terms with the fact that being an activist on the individual level is almost as meaningless as voting in elections, and yet to carry on.
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Dec 2, 2015 20:30
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So anyway another example of how gun control stops crime just happened: http://ktla.com/2015/12/02/authorities-respond-to-20-victim-shooting-incident-in-san-bernardino-fire-dept/
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Dec 2, 2015 20:37
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LeoMarr posted:So anyway another example of how gun control stops crime just happened: goddamn gun control, if only you didn't exist, this man...wouldn't have...been able to get a gun? wait
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Dec 2, 2015 20:59
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LeoMarr posted:So anyway another example of how gun control stops crime just happened: If only those developmentally disabled people and their counselors had guns.
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Dec 2, 2015 21:06
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LeoMarr posted:So anyway another example of how gun control stops crime just happened: How about you explain it in your own words instead of just posting a news article and expecting us to agree with you. Because we aren't.
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Dec 2, 2015 21:11
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Thanks for jinxing it Tezzor, you've got blood on your hands Also wiffle ball bat posted:tezzor you have to die
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Dec 2, 2015 21:18
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LeoMarr posted:So anyway another example of how gun control stops crime just happened: As a disabled person, gently caress you. Keep us out of your smug incoherent jabs.
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Dec 2, 2015 21:23
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VitalSigns posted:There's a strange beauty to this argument. We should drown our country in guns not because we need them or they protect our liberties or they deter crime, in fact the opposite we should keep selling them to anyone who wants to shoot up a kindergarten or a mall or whatever. We should reject all gun control not because it's all a sneaky incrementalist way to disarm us and let the blacks and/or communazi stormtroopers kill all white people. No no, we should do these things because enough motivated voting crazy people believe all this stuff and they will purposely gently caress the country out of spite if we don't cater to them.
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Dec 2, 2015 22:50
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Dead Reckoning posted:Or, you could realize that there are any number of things to be done that would help the progressive agenda, lower crime, and improve our society, instead of trying to tell other people how to live their lives because you don't like them and don't like their beliefs. Nah take away guns that will remove all forms of crime actually. Ban knives too and any object that could be used as a blunt weapon.
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Dec 2, 2015 22:52
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Dead Reckoning posted:Or, you could realize that there are any number of things to be done that would help the progressive agenda, lower crime, and improve our society, instead of trying to tell other people how to live their lives because you don't like them and don't like their beliefs. your retarded beliefs just got a whole bunch of people shot
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Dec 2, 2015 22:54
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Dead Reckoning posted:Or, you could realize that there are any number of things to be done that would help the progressive agenda, lower crime, and improve our society, instead of trying to tell other people how to live their lives because you don't like them and don't like their beliefs. "I vote republican despite the fact that they directly work against my interests because GUNS" - TFR
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Dec 2, 2015 22:56
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Raskolnikov38 posted:your retarded beliefs just got a whole bunch of people shot http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/01/world/asia/china-railway-attack/
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Dec 2, 2015 23:00
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| # ? Apr 27, 2024 12:43 |
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Raskolnikov38 posted:your retarded beliefs just got a whole bunch of people shot Yeah, yeah, and my fondness for whiskey and wine killed 27 people today from DUIs alone. Is there no limit to the depravity of my collective guilt? Dead Reckoning fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Dec 2, 2015 |
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Dec 2, 2015 23:03
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