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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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cheerfullydrab posted:

Herein we talk about World War 2, an event many people believe was the hinge between the world of today and the world of yesterday.

A:) Was America's involvement in the war necessary? Could the Soviet Union have won the war against the Third Reich without American/Allied help?

B:) Was America's dropping of the A-bomb necessary to win the war?

C:) Was the war in Northern Africa instrumental in defeating the Third Reich? How about Italy?

D:) Could the Japanese imaginary scenario for the summer of '42, their conceptions of the fleet actions around the Battle of Midway, have resulted in a sea battle that would have demoralized the USA into a negotiated settlement?

E:) How did WW2 influence the beginnings of the Cold War, and the strategies of the powers involved? How did WW2 thinking influence Cold War thinking?

F:)How was WW2 an end, or a continuation, of post-1815 European colonialism? How did colonies react to WW2?

G:) How did the Holocaust impact European and American attitudes towards ethnic politics? How did WW2 affect the movement of peoples throughout the world? Was any of this just or right?

All of these are just extremely general prompts, do not let them stop you from debating which tank was best.


A) Yes. A majority of the equipment used by the USSR was American supplied, without this pipeline they may have actually lost.

B) No, but it was necessary to stop a casualty multiplier of like 50. 10,000,000 Japanese would have died defending their homeland, and that's a conservative estimate.

c) Yes. Control of the Mediterranean was extremely important to to the war effort, without this campaign even more troops could have been moved to the eastern front or the Atlantic Wall for that matter

E) Stalin took over half of europe and the balkans because of Operation Dragoon, which caused an even larger polar divide amongst european countries and brought us to the Us vs Them cold war attitude.

F) E: Misread, but Colonies contributed to WW2 greatly, some did not. India sent 2.5 million troops to aid Britain in hopes of gaining independence. Colonies became unfavorable after WW2.

G) Israel

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Dec 4, 2015

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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Main Paineframe posted:

B:) No. However, there was no option for ending the war to Allied satisfaction that didn't involve a high risk of a whole lot of people dying, and the US was no doubt looking for an excuse to use a nuke after all that money was spent developing a miracle super weapon. A ground invasion would have been extraordinarily bloody, and simply waiting Japan out would have starved quite a few civilians. A quick surrender may have been possible after the Soviet declaration or war completely crushed Japanese hopes of a negotiated peace, but the political state of Imperial Japan meant that was by no means a guaranteed end to the bloodshed.

There is, however, one catch: the Allies refused to accept anything less than unconditional total surrender, to the point where a negotiated peace deal is typically not even discussed when talking about ending the war. Unconditional surrender is actually a pretty huge deal! If the US had been willing to go to the negotiating table, I think a relatively bloodless peace was certainly possible. Of course, that probably would have involved leaving Imperial Japan intact, which would have fairly brutal consequences in the region, would poison US relations with the other Allies, and would probably have been unacceptable to American public opinion in 1945. But, y'know, a bad option with a low body count is still enough to poke holes in the "there were no options that didn't involve a shitton of dead people" narrative.




Kinda hard to say "We're friends now" when this is on billboards.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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KaptainKrunk posted:

Hard to say. Every major power committed major crimes against humanity. They're not all equally, obviously. Japan and Germany launched aggressive wars, so they're going to bear the moral responsibility associated with not only their own actions but part of the actions of those they fought against. They also stand head and shoulders above the Allies in terms of scale and intent too.

Anyone that familiar with Italian war crimes? It's probably not for lack of trying - and likely due to incompetence - that the Italians don't really have any war crimes to my knowledge that compare to Germany or Japan.

Italy had a few concentration camps in Africa.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Czechoslovakia was a major manufacturer of machine guns, tanks, and artillery, most of which were assembled in the Škoda factory and had a modern army of 35 divisions. Many of these factories continued to produce Czech designs until factories were converted for German designs. Czechoslovakia also had other major manufacturing companies. Entire steel and chemical factories were moved from Czechoslovakia and reassembled in Linz, Austria which incidentally remains a heavily industrialized sector of the country. In a speech delivered in Reichstag, Hitler stressed out also the military importance of occupation, noting that by occupying Czechoslovakia, Germany gained 2,175 field canons, 469 tanks, 500 anti-aircraft artillery pieces, 43,000 machine guns, 1,090,000 military rifles, 114,000 pistols, about a billion rounds of ammunition and three millions of anti-aircraft grenades. This amount of weaponry would be sufficient to arm about half of the then Wehrmacht.[6] Czechoslovak weaponry later played major part in the German conquest of Poland and France, the countries that pressured the country's surrender to Germany in 1938.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Captain_Maclaine posted:

Any particular reason you lifted that passage from wikipedia's entry on the German occupation of Czechoslovakia?

Because it's an important fact in the rest of the war. Germany probably would have been crushed by France, aswell as the Invasion of poland would have been much bloodier had they not eaten Czechoslovakia in '38.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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VitalSigns posted:

Yeah but afterwards Poland kept refusing a military pact with the Soviet Union and it scuttled any chance at a Franco-Russian alliance to encircle Germany.

haha yeah Im sure the USSR had no ulterior motives to moving through Poland.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Cerebral Bore posted:

That's a bit unfair since Molotov-Ribbentrop was a direct result of the Munich Agreement.

Well yes, however this pact was very favorable to the USSR in terms of sticking it to Poland. Just because Munich was the cause of the treaty does not mean that it was not well within Stalin's desires to take half of Poland. And with the M-R Pact the Allies had no countries between Germany and USSR to prop up and utilize for containment. Which of course helped the USSR by forcing the allies to smash Germany (A capitalist country.) to contain the USSR. Which would give Stalin the ability to sweep through Europe and annihilate the remnants of the Allies/Germany with like 5 million troops (Mobilized in '39)

I've been researching a theory that the Allies initiated D-Day as a response to the very real threat of the USSR replacing Germany for control of continental europe. However Operation Dragoon occurring caused Stalin to take control of most of the Balkans, which was a real blunder, Had Dragoon not occured I do believe we would have seen a real Operation Unthinkable. Or a really contained non-threat Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Dragoon

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Dec 10, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Cerebral Bore posted:

Stalin didn't give a poo poo about Poland, he gave a poo poo about Germany and the westerm powers teaming up to crush the USSR. In fact, this was the situation that the entire Soviet political-military elite had been preparing for for decades at that point. M-R let him nip that possibility in the bud as well as extend his buffer zone towards Germany, so of course he took the deal. This wasn't some calculated mater plan for world domination, it was sheer opportunism.

Stalin's August 19th 1939 Speech directly stated that he wished for the capitalist countries to fight each other and exhaust each other enough to sweep through Europe. On September 1st Stalin began mobilizing his army by reducing the USSR's military age from 21 to 18, and then enacting a universal draft, which increased the soviet army from 1,900,000 to ~23 Million (5Mil Mobilized/18Mil Reserve) (From 1939 - 1941)

So if France was occupied in 1940, why did Stalin continue to mobilize an offensive force and not a defensive one until the invasion of the USSR by Germany in 1941? Stalin desired the capitalist countries to fight each other, which correlates into your second point. The allies didn't initiate D-Day because Stalin asked for a second front. They initiated Operation Torch because Operation SledgeHammer "would probably be disastrous". A second front was desired to exhaust Germany and the UK-US by having them fight each other, which was kind of true if you think about the balkans and how rapidly Stalin ate it.


Cerebral Bore posted:

The allies initiated D-Day because Stalin had been demanding a second front for years at that point, so your theory makes no sense whatsoever. Like, the only way it could be halfway reconciled with reality is if the entire historical record WRT inter-allied diplomacy of WW2 has been falsified, so I think you're pretty far into conspiracy theory territory here.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Dec 10, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Obdicut posted:

What the gently caress does this mean?

They initiated Operation Torch because Operation SledgeHammer "would probably be disastrous". A second front was desired to exhaust Germany and the UK-US by having them fight each other, which was kind of true if you think about the balkans and how rapidly Stalin ate it.

Wasn't done writing, was in process of editing.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Cerebral Bore posted:

I can't make heads or tails of what you're trying to say here. The only thing I can conclude is that you seem to be very confused about how WW2-era militaries work because you claim that mobilizing your military forces while surrounded by hostile powers and while two huge-rear end wars are going on in the neighbourhood is indicative of some kind of master plan for world conquest rather than a reasonable precaution.

"

If a war does break out, we will not sit with folded arms – we will have to take the field, but we will be last to do so. And we shall do so in order to throw the decisive load on the scale"

Which "two massive wars" were going on in 1939? Because as I recall one of those "Massive wars" was a war in which the USSR was involved in. Also you missed the point where I spoke of the fact that the USSR was in an offensive positioning and not a defensive one. Your statement would work if the USSR was actually preparing a defense to stop Germany. Except they weren't. This would be like saying that Germany amassing on the Low countries/France was a reasonable precaution against French aggression.

Soviet units were also outfitted with maps and phrasebooks for german occupied territory. What is the point of that if you are merely defensive?

Oh and this is a lovely quote for a "defensive" formation

"the ultimate victory of socialism... can only be achieved on an international scale"

Obdicut posted:

you're not making a drat lick of sense.

Stalin wanted a second front for the totally normal and straightforward reason any person in his position would want a second front: to take some of the German military strength away.

This isn't rocket surgery.

Stalin was winning regardless of a second front or not. However pulling german units away and exhausting both Britain/US and Germany was beneficial to Stalin yes. However even with the knowledge that the UK/US did not have enough landing craft in 1941 to mount a full scale invasion Stalin still wanted this. Do you really think Stalin gave a poo poo if the UK/US Suceeded in their offensive? Tell me, who would benefit more from a disaster at D-Day. Stalin or Hitler.


steinrokkan posted:

I don't think it can be reasonably said that making the capitalists fight each other was Stalin's main concern after the fall of France. That and Barbarossa threw proletarian fantasies into disarray, and made material survival and relief of Russia's strain the main focal point.

I don't think you realize that pre-war soviet doctrine was Marxist-Leninism, in that capitalism will be overthrown through communist revolution.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Dec 10, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Merging,

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Dec 10, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Merging a triple post.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Cerebral Bore posted:

So you have literally no idea what you're talking about, gotcha. I don't really see why I have to explain this, but in the age of total war if you are attacked, you eventually will have to cross over into the aggressor's land in order to finish the fight. As ample evidence shows, the Soviet strategy was to blunt the initial German attack and then counterattack quickly in order to cut off the German spearheads. This kind of necessitates forces at the border. However, it isn't some kind of slam-dunk evidence that Stalin was going to start a war in 1942, or whatever the latest revisionist claptrap claims.

So why is it then that these units didn't have maps of their own territory? You do realize that Military maps are topographic right? You can't use them in any other place other than the designated theater. Those maps had little to no reference to lines of defense, retreating orders or fallback points.

And I'm actually glad you show your lack of understanding formations by stating that I said forces at the border meant offensive.

There is a difference between offensive and defensive border positioning. It's safe to say that French forces at the Maginot line were defensive and did not plan on marching on Berlin.



So why did Stalin enforce a 2 year draft in 1939 if he was planning for a defensive war? This would mean that soldiers of the USSR would have to enter war in 1 September 1941 or be released. (The draft started on 1, September 1939.)

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Dec 11, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Obdicut posted:

I have never run into this conspiracy theory before, sorry that it's taking me a little while to get to grips with it.

The simplest possible explanation is that he wanted to have some pressure taken off of him, that this is an obvious military good thing.

You have decided to complicate this with an idea that he wanted the US/UK to 'exhaust' themselves. The US wasn't going to be exhausted, even by a failure at D-Day. The US never showed any signs of remotely being inclined to throw in the towel at any point, and they weren't being materially stretched, either. The war was not bad for the US economy--it really limited what was available in the civilian market--and it was spurring enormous scientific advances for the US that the Russians knew they were not keeping pace with. The USSR, especially if they retained the slightest shred of actual Marxist theoretical grounding, would want the capitalist countries to go back to being capitalists and stop being command economies with extreme nationalism.

Really simply: Why not just the obvious explanation that if you're fighting someone of course you loving want a second front?

Why is that not sufficient?

When I say Exhaust I don't mean the country of US or UK falls, but by exhaust I mean being unable to stop soviet expansion in continental europe. What's your opinion on what would have happened had D-Day failed, Would you say that a second attempt would have been made? I really don't think it would have. And Stalin was winning before 1944. Previously in this threat some said that the High command knew the war was being lost in 1942-1943, Stalin wanted a second front in 1941. By 1944 when D-Day occurred Berlin was going to fall regardless. I am not arguing that he didn't want a second front. But there was a need for one in 1941 originally, not 1944 as much.


Yeah guys, Stalin was a really peaceful guy who didn't want to expand his ideals to any other countries...yeah

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Cerebral Bore posted:

I don't think that he realizes that Stalin's main policy always was Socialism in One Country, and that he literally had people shot for advocating a spread of the revolution through force of arms.

Obdicut posted:

gently caress it, I was replying at length but then I realized you didn't answer the loving question.

Why isn't the simple explanation good enough for you? If you are in a war, you want a second front because that's a good thing to have in a war. Germany might have revaled a Zukhov of their own or at least just stopped massively underestimating Russian strategy and tactics and been able to gently caress them up a lot more. Why isn't that simple reason sufficient explanation?


Nobody is claiming Stalin was peaceful, what the gently caress is wrong with you.

Of course a second front is desirable. But what I am saying is that it was not needed to win the war in 1944. It was needed in 1941.

So which of these would need a second front more?
This?



Or this



WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 00:38 on Dec 11, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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vyelkin posted:

It's almost like it took the US and UK two years to plan the largest amphibious invasion in human history or something.

Yeah but how does that change the fact that a 1941 invasion would be more favorable To Stalin than a 1944 one, when he already had hitler on the ropes.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Cerebral Bore posted:

Well, that explains it.

Is the idea that Stalin would have absolutely loved to see a failed D-Day also part of Suvorov's dumbassery or is that some other conspiracy theory?

I'm sure Stalin wanted the Allies to restore Capitalist Europe. You know that's why we have the cold war, the berlin airlift, soviet occupation of Eastern europe. Really Stalin just wanted France and Germany as friends and not fiefs.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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vyelkin posted:

Yes, and I'm sure that Churchill and Roosevelt/Truman would have loved to liberate Europe all the way to the Russian border if that had somehow been an option. What's your point?

That Stalin actually wanted to sweep through the entirity of Continental europe and that in 1943- this was a distinct possibility had the invasion not taken place. Allies on continental Europe made taking it over pretty difficult. I doubt Stalin would have wanted a war with UK/US. However had a 1944 Invasion failed then Continental Europe would have been very very communist

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Raskolnikov38 posted:

What the hell are you even arguing? Duh Stalin would have taken more of Europe if he could have, he said as much at a conference later.

Originally that Poland wouldn't let Russian troops support Czechoslovakia because of Soviet aggression.

Then someone said Stalin was a man who believed in "Socialism in One nation" and therefore was not ready for an offensive into german territory, and was actually fearful of France and Germany and the UK teaming up and killing the commie menace once and for all therefore being prepared for a defense of the USSR. However this is insane as Stalin had ~5 Million troops mobilized and ~18 Million in reserve, and the USSR lost massive swathes of land because those troops were mobilized for an offensive not a defensive.

vyelkin posted:

I think his point is that Stalin was a supervillain whose master plan to take over Europe had been brewing for years and was only foiled by the Nazi invasion and the success of the Allied second front which Stalin didn't actually want despite repeatedly telling the Allies that he wanted it for years, which seems to me like a seriously confusing take on the fundamentally pragmatic, opportunist, and deeply paranoid foreign policy of the USSR under Stalin.

Actually I said that in 1941 Stalin wanted a second front because he desperately needed it as Moscow under threat. But in 1944 when the offensive actually happened it was less favorable for Stalin because having allied troops on his new French Fief stopped him from sweeping over Europe.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Dec 11, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Cerebral Bore posted:

I, too, am convinced that Stalin would have been absolutely delighted if all those Germans that were held up in France by the threat of an US/UK invasion could have been redeployed to fight the Red Army in the east. This would totally have sapped the resources of the US and UK a lot or something, but honestly this is kinda when I lose track of the various conspiracies involved here.


I guess this is kind of what I've been saying, if you completely misunderstand everything that I've been saying and are confused by concepts such as "offensive" and "war preparations".

Troops in Western front from 1939 to 1941 :

3.5 Million

Troops in Western front in 1944

1.5 Million

You are dumb.

Tell me more about what would have happened had D-day failed, last time I checked there wouldn't be any allied troops to stop the USSR from filling the boots of the Wehrmcht at the Atlantic Wall.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 01:34 on Dec 11, 2015

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Taerkar posted:

I like the entire idiocy of a military being capable of only being either offensive or defensive and that's why the Germans pushed them back like they did, rather than the well known facts of the disassembly of the original Stalin Line along the Polish border and the incomplete state of the Molotov Line along the new border leaving them with unfortified defensive positions. Oh and of course the reorganization and officer purges of the Red Army at the time.

What's next? The ability of the BT-7 to drive really fast on roads as proof that Stalin was just about to attack Hitler?

"Comrade Stalin! Our troops are stuck in offensive stance and can't stop the Nazi Advance!"

"My plans, Ruined!"

There's actually no difference between offensive positioning of units and a defensive one. You just start walking in a straight line forwards for attack and backwards for defense.

It's not that the military is Only in "defense" or "Offense" but the fact of the matter is the lack of defensive planning. Look at Eastern front, once the german attack was halted the entire front began to buckle. I talked about this briefly, but what was found on soviet soldiers was very offensive in nature. Maps and phrase books of GERMAN controlled areas, but a very significant lack of topographical maps of soviet territory. Why would a defensive force not plan out their defense and make sure every level Platoon+ knew where to go? When Germany began Barbarossa they caught most of the soviet troops off guard, and large swathes of land were taken because of this. The soviet army was extremely organized, but was caught off guard by the fact that Germany had surprised them with the attack, which resulted in a route, namely because of those soviet troops lacking knowledge of how to mount a defense. To expand on that point a little, I don't mean his troops didn't know how to defend themselves, however if you lack any knowledge of where your comrades are while you're getting shot by fascists you may die a lot quicker. Aswell as the way troops and units are positioned when mounting a defense versus preparing an offense. Because you lack any real knowledge of warfare other than what you learned in High school History class when your teacher told you about WW1.

Oh yeah forgot, no difference between defense and offense

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_tactics#Offensive_tactics

Why would you put your troops infront of a landmine field if you planned on retrating.



Aswell as this quote in 1925 by Stalin, "Struggles, conflicts and wars among our enemies are...our great ally...and the greatest supporter of our government and our revolution" Gee can't imagine why Stalin would want to exhaust the allies or anything.








As you can see these troops are not offensive or defensive.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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HerraS posted:

No but you see this ideological lip service Stalin gave in the 1920s totally shows that he was going to invade in the 1940s!!!!!

http://theeasternfront.org/mein_sozialismus/downloads/articleI.pdf

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Mans posted:

just want to preserve this post where you prove the Soviets were the bad guys that the Nazis had no choice but to fight against by quoting wikipedia articles about defensive and offensive tactics and a hearts of iron screenshot.



(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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This in case that Germany would emerge victorious from the war. We
must, however, envisage the possibilities that will result from
the defeat as well as from the victory of Germany. In case of
her defeat, a Sovietization of Germany will unavoidably occur
and a Communist government will be created. We should not
forget that a Sovietized Germany would bring about great
danger, if this Sovietization is the result of German defeat in a
transient war. England and France will still be strong enough
to seize Berlin and to destroy a Soviet Germany. We would be
unable to come effectually to her assistance/to the aid of our
Bolshevik comrades in Germany.


WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Effectronica posted:

Stalin is here talking about a rerun of WW1- a collapse of Germany's civilian morale followed by a left-wing uprising. In this instance, the USSR would be able to support and seize control of this uprising, where the Spartacists failed due to the SPD aligning with the Freikorps and Stahlhelm.

He goes on to say

Therefore, our goal is that Germany should carry out the war as
long as possible so that England and France grow weary and
become exhausted to such a degree that they are no longer in a
position to put down a Sovietized Germany.

As I read into this further I realize that Stalin really didn't care about the US/UK and exhausting them. He was concerned about exhausting the UK/France. Obviously France was exhausted very quickly.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Effectronica posted:

Yes, he's talking about a rerun of WW1, with extended trench warfare. His entire proposal was made brutally, obviously obsolete in May 1940.

Very true, but the desired effect was to allow germany to exhaust the allies and take over germany . While that happened much quicker than Stalin had hoped, he still was preparing for an offensive war up until the 22nd of June, 1941.

Raskolnikov38 posted:

okay getting back to your original point, you disbelieve that Stalin was fearful of the Axis and Allies teaming up correct? In that document you link there's a handy quote from Stalin that states:

"We are absolutely convinced that if we
conclude a mutual assistance pact with France and Great
Britain, Germany will back off from Poland and seek a modus
vivendi with the Western Powers. War would be avoided, but
further events could prove dangerous for the USSR."

Now on the defensive thing, Mobilization Plan-41 was designed to have Soviet units at full strength by early 1942 which can be seen by how undermanned and under equipped the 1st and 2nd echelons on the border were. Now when that plan was completed, the Soviets could have launched an offensive but in the mean time had set up defensive positions but, due to aforementioned lack of men and equipment, were hopelessly overrun the first days of the war.


I have no doubt that Stalin was afraid of the allies and axis teaming up. But not in the sence that these two factions would sign a peace treaty and start burning down leningrad. But let's look at this for a moment

On the other hand, if we accept Germany's proposal, that you
know, and conclude a non-aggression pact with her, she will
certainly invade Poland, and the intervention of France and
England is then unavoidable. Western Europe would be
subjected to serious upheavals and disorder. In this case we
will have a great opportunity to stay out of the conflict, and we
could plan the opportune time for us to enter the war.

Isn't this a game changer with an Axis/Allies alliance versus Comintern? Stalin states that accepting the M-R Pact will mean that no alliance is possible between the factions. Stalin wanted Hitler to take Poland so that France/UK would intervene. That's a pretty simple move to divide and conquer the capitalists. Obviously France being taken in less than 2 months was not desirable to Stalin at all, so he prepared for a sneak attack by starting the 2 year draft in 1939, changing the military age from 21 to 18. Even in 1928 when the 5 Year plans started The USSR was readying for a repeat of 1914-1918. Plan 1 Collectivise and Industrialize, Plan 2 Prioritized heavy industry, Plan 3 Militarize. All of these things from 1920s onwards indicate Stalin was readying for an extremely aggressive war. Had France/UK actually lasted long enough to exhaust Germany, then Stalin's plan would have become reality. But France died in less than 2 months. So basically france losing to hitler saved us from a communist continent. :france:

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Dec 11, 2015

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Mans posted:

Stalin was saying that a grinding war would result in the same scenario that was seen in Germany at the end of WW1, only this time the USSR could intervene with success and save the revolution in Germany.

Two months later Hitler was in Paris and that entire war doctrine meant nothing.


ftfy

I wouldn't say it meant nothing, but it meant that The USSR would have to step up its game and actually take Germany instead of sidelining. The USSR just saw Germany wipe out the French, and push a 300,000 man force into the sea at Dunkirk. Do you really think that defense was on STAVKA's mind? Because If you look at 1942, as soon as Germany was thrown into a defensive war it lost very quickly.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Dec 11, 2015

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vyelkin posted:

Yes, because the fundamental nature of Soviet foreign policy under Stalin was defensive and paranoid. The underlying assumption of all Soviet foreign policy in the 20s and 30s was that the capitalist states (which included literally everyone who wasn't the USSR--Germany, France, UK, US, Italy, Japan, all were just lumped in as "capitalist" states) were eventually going to invade the USSR because they couldn't abide the existence of a communist country.

The vast majority of the speech you linked is discussing Stalin's plan to stay out of a European war, not to start one. He's basically saying "There are two choices: either we sign a pact with Britain/France and stop German expansion, which means the capitalists will inevitably team up to invade us, or we sign a pact with Germany which means Germany and Britain/France fight each other and leave us alone while we build up for the inevitable capitalist/communist war." Yeah there's some stuff thrown in there about a German revolution and Soviet support for them, but the primary thrust of the speech is "We want everyone to leave us alone while we build our army and industry." Soviet references to some unspecified eventual war are not signs of Stalin's secret plan to take over the world but signs of the recurring Soviet doctrine that a capitalist invasion was inevitable.

But then why is it the germans got within 10 miles of moscow? Couldn't it be argued that as soon as France fell the main objective of the USSR was to assault German held territory to stop Germany from taking over the USSR? Which would coincide with the lack of defensive planning that we saw during the early campaign of Operation Barbarossa. Stalin saw the writing on the wall, in May, 1940 Stalin had until September 1941 to enter the war before his draftees would expire. Hitler attacked in June, 4 months before the invasion of Germany that the USSR desired to happen. Those would have been a critical 4 months to finish the touches on the assaulting force, however the USSR was caught completely off guard by the german attack (History proves this.) Now obviously the Officer purge affected the soviet army, but what really affected the Soviet army was the fact that the officer count was not high enough to match the growth of the Soviet army. In 1940/1941 The officers that were in the army were basically draftees. I mean when your army goes from 1.8 Mil in 1939 to 5 Mil/18Mil reserves, it takes quite an effort to get an officer count to match that, even without a purge it would have been difficult.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Captain_Maclaine posted:

Honestly? Not without going full Harry Turtledove on the whole question. Counterfactuals like this are always easy to break if you toss in enough "but what if" statements, but in reality the Nazis had basically no chance of actually winning the war in the East. At most, you can make an argument that they could've gotten to Moscow in 1941 if Hitler hadn't split efforts along three simultaneous prongs (and even then I tend to doubt it), but even if we grant that unlikely achievement I cannot imagine the Soviets would have shrugged and said "whelp, better retreat permanently behind the Urals and let the Greater Reich set up its new homeland on our territory, from which it plans to periodically attack us anyway since Nazi ideology calls for perpetual conflict to keep the Volk strong."


Yeah he gets off easy as he did pull of some pretty remarkable things and had some impressive strokes of luck, and I have hard time rating any Wehrmacht general that highly who never faced the Russians.

What about when Japan practically announced that they were not going to attack the USSR and Stalin moved a large army group out of Siberia? Had those divisions not been freed up would Moscow have been liberated?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Captain_Maclaine posted:

At the risk of indulging your bizarre nuttery about the war in the East: Like I said, throw in enough "what ifs" and you make anything seem trivially plausible, but given that Japan had gotten severely curbstomped by the Red Army twice in the 30s and was still scared to hell of them, and had an entirely different war(s)* going that preempted any lunatic plans to invade the Soviet Far East, I don't see how this has any particular relevance to what I said. Even if Zhukov hadn't had the Siberian divisions handy in winter 1941 and Moscow was faced with a unified Wehrmacht rather than just the advanced elements of Army Group Center and they somehow magicked up enough winterized equipment to take the city (or got their earlier, since we're in "just make poo poo up entirely" territory here), I still don't see the USSR collapsing as a belligerent power or failing, later on, to marshal an equivalent force to that which it actually used to kick Fritz all the way back to Berlin. Particularly as having a unified Wehrmacht before Moscow meant the centers of Soviet manufacture and fuel elsewhere would not have been touched by the other German Army Groups which, by definition, wouldn't have driven into the Ukraine and Baltic States.

I actually just wanted to know if those 30 divisions would have made a significant impact on the siege of Moscow.

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Captain_Maclaine posted:

I'm confused, do you mean if Stalin had stayed paranoid about Japan and refused to move them for some reason?

Yes, What I meant was IF those divisions had stayed in Siberia longer, would it make a significant impact on Moscow being liberated in '42.

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Main Paineframe posted:

Because Stalin knew war with Germany would happen eventually but was certain that it wouldn't happen in 1941, so he engaged in various major reorganizations and shifts and expansions in the Red Army with the goal of being absolutely ready to crush Germany by 1943 or 1944. Unfortunately for the Soviets, Hitler attacked much earlier than expected, and the Red Army was in the midst of major changes that left it in no state to fight any kind of war (offensive or defensive) when Barbarossa began. Stalin simply let his guard down, assuming that the Red Army wouldn't need to fight in 1941 and therefore it was okay to sacrifice its immediate readiness to fight for the sake of larger restructurings.

So why enact a 2 year draft and raise a 5 million strong army so rapidly that your officer corps suffers if you plan to crush your enemy after those forces are released in 1941?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Captain_Maclaine posted:

True, but it's far more likely to end up in Bad Alt-History land than anywhere interesting I find. Not like we're lacking things to talk about that, you know, actually happened.


"Reserve formations? What is this black sorcery you speak of?!"

Stalin had an additional 18 million people drafted into the reserve on top of the 5 million man army.


Raskolnikov38 posted:

I dunno, sometimes they make a decent jumping off point to launch an investigation into why something happened.


You can 'redraft' those people once they're out, its actually the whole point of a peace time draft. You give 'em two years of training and then a month or two refresher course when war actually breaks out.

So if all of these people are expected to be released after their contract ends, why would you put them on the German-Soviet border? Wouldn't this signal the immediate need for an attack by Germany? As in if you witnessed your sworn enemy's manpower drop by 4 million, wouldn't you to attack? Don't you think Stalin knew this? If he wanted to train these soldiers in secret, why concentrate them on a border where their existence is known to the enemy? Maybe Stalin should have put the russian training centers on the border to really scare ol' hitler


vyelkin posted:

In all likelihood, a) because the Soviet Union, like the Russian Empire before it, would periodically draft people into the army even when there wasn't a war going on; b) because they wanted to establish a large number of young men with military training for whenever the war eventually did come; and c) because they were indeed involved in both a limited round of aggressive military expansion into Finland, the Baltic States, eastern Poland, and Bessarabia, and an ongoing but slow-burning conflict with the Japanese Kwantung Army, a reflection of the ongoing deterioration in peaceful foreign relations and outbreak of war around the world and around the USSR's borders.

A) Russian Empire did this to cull uprisings by removing a large quantity of fighting aged males from areas of high revolt
B) So slap them on the border and then tell them to go home, So really Stalin just conscripted 5 million people for border control services from 1939 to 1941?
C) So therefore put them on the opposite side of the world (In reference to Kwantung). Also the draft started in 1939, the winter war ended in 1940. I really don't think 23 million people needed to be conscripted for Finland.



Concentration of forces on German-USSR Border
1 January 1939 22 June 1941 Increase
Divisions calculated 131.5 316.5 140.7%
Personnel 2,485,000 5,774,000 132.4%
Guns and mortars 55,800 117,600 110.7%
Tanks 21,100 25,700 21.8%
Aircraft 7,700 18,700 142.8%

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Captain_Maclaine posted:

All of which rested on assumptions about their enemies which were, at best, unreasonable and misinformed, and at worst ideologically-derived racist horseshit. I mean I can kinda- sorta- grant that, in a bad light with only the recent history of Munich in mind, German officials might have had some slight basis for thinking Britain would back off after the Fall of France (again, ignoring an awful lot), but Japan's presumption that the US would be willing to shrug off the loss of the Pacific Fleet and territories and not have the stomach for a long fight was entirely delusional. And Hitler's "kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down" was based entirely on his ideological presumption that the only thing that had kept the old Russian Empire up was an elite intelligentsia of ethnic Germans, which the sinister-yet-feckless Judeo-Bolsheviks had either killed or driven off.

What if Dunkirk had resulted in the capture of 300,000 troops including most of the BEF. Would the UK still have fought back had their army been eradicated?

I should extrapolate on this a bit, I know they would not have surrendered instantly, because they still had the RAF and RN. But what would be the implications of a german capture of that many brits

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 01:08 on Dec 12, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Bolow posted:

Subutai didn't have any problems :colbert:

Well the blood kept the roads warm so he didn't have any issue.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Raskolnikov38 posted:

You draft people to replace those that hit the age cap. IE:

1939:
Draft of all persons born 1919-1921

1940:
Release of 1919 class, drafting of 1922 class begins

1941:
Release of 1920 class, drafting of 1923 class begins

and so on and so on

This makes no sense because this action would be well documented. Also this wouldn't correlate with common knowledge because it would be a class of 1918 for 1939 as Stalin reduced the Red Army age from 21 to 19.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Obdicut posted:

Seriously, why are you so bad at this? Why do you look for overly complex explanations?

Overcomplex? So it was all chance? Stalin happened to enact a draft which happened to end 4 months prior to the Nazi invasion of the USSR. Oh and these troops happened to be on the border of Germany?

You're drawing at straws. "Oh actually that draft was totally status quo! Find me a documented source that stares the 1939 draft even happened. Because those are scarce. If it was statis quo why was it so secretive? So they just happened to assemble the largest army ever concieved of because it was a regular occurence? Do you know how much it costs to conscript 23 million people? Thats not something you do every few years. Aswell as the famines and huge drop in birth rate during 1919 onward. They just did it for the gently caress of it. Gotcha. I can see it now Stalin: lets conscripy 23 million dudes so we can train em gently caress it

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
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Effectronica posted:

And why doesn't anybody recognize that there was a second gunman on the grassy knoll?

Are you going to call me a holocaust denier next?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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vyelkin posted:

Hmm you're right, there's no reason for the deeply paranoid and insecure USSR to expand their military at all, or place them on the border with Germany for any reason, even after Germany conquered half of Europe. They should have stuck them all in the Urals training. Placing soldiers on the border of your powerful ideological enemy who has shown a proclivity for offensive warfare is completely illogical and the only reason why you would ever do that is if you were planning to invade them.

So wouldn't the idea that Germany was very well versed in offensive wars give plausibility to the thought that Stalin planned on preemptively striking Germany before he was thrown into a defensive war? Maybe one in say, 1941 when Stalin was at a significant manpower advantage proven in 1942 onwards?

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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

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Stalins such a nice guy, liberating countries from the woes of industrialization. By removing their industry.

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