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MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.


Welcome to the Fantasy Football Offseason thread where degenerate owners can strategize far too early to make any meaningful difference in their chances next year. I know that last offseason, I spent quite a bit of time just researching players which played a huge part in my championship run this year. I know we have a lot of collective knowledge on this forum and would like to pool it into a cohesive discussion thread. I will try to update the OP as new information comes in and am certainly open to adding new sections that people might find helpful.

The focus of the OP will be from an ESPN Standard League perspective and will mainly include offensive players. I will try to include any major defensive moves that could have impacts in standard.

I will continue to add content in terms of brief FA/Coaching evaluations but am hoping that those of you familiar with a player or coach’s situation can fill in some of the gaps in my knowledge. If you want to add something to the OP, just let me know.


1 Players



The meat and potatoes of fantasy football discussion. We rejoice in their triumphs and rage at their failures, oftentimes forgetting that there are actual human beings behind those numbers on espn.com. But we really really care about those numbers. Here is a place to keep track of player personnel changes.

1.1 Trades & Acquisitions

A running list of any major trades or acquisitions this offseason including players likely to be traded.

1.1.1 Cut/Trading/Retirement Block

List of players rumored to be cut/traded or are considering retiring this year that could have large impacts to the team.

Colin Kaepernick (SF) – With Chip Kelly taking over in San Francisco, Kaep may have a chance to prove himself in Kelly’s system given his mobile skillset. However, the 49ers can cut Kaep with very little downside if they want to draft a QB and stick with Gabbert in the interim.

Marshawn Lynch (SEA) – Unfortunately, I think Beast Mode may have played his last snap in the NFL. He already had thoughts of retiring before signing an extension with Seattle and with Rawls looking great this year, it would be impossible to justify his salary. I don’t see him signing with another team at this point in his career.

Calvin Johnson (DET) – The latest word per Adam Schefter is that Calvin Johnson told Coach Caldwell at the beginning of the season and after the regular season that he was planning to retire. All signs point to Megatron having played his last season. This is a sad day for footballs.

Eddie Lacy (GB) - With Fat Mike calling out Fat Eddie recently, it looks like there is a chance Lacy may not be with the Packers next year if he doesn't put in the work this offseason.

Josh Gordon (CLE) - Gordon has applied for reinstatement to the NFL after a year-long suspension for violating the substance abuse policy. It is worth monitoring his offseason progress as who knows what kind of shape he will be in after a year off. Nearly unlimited upside talent-wise seeing as he put up 1600 yards with some trash QB's throwing to him but tons of question marks.


1.1.2 Acquisitions
TBD

1.2 Free Agents

A list of this year’s Free Agents by position. I am trying to limit the list to only fantasy-relevant offensive players but let me know if you think someone needs to be added.

1.2.1 Quarterback
  • Kirk Cousins (WSH) – Hard to imagine Kirk doesn’t get signed by Washington after leading them to the playoffs. He put up some huge fantasy games this year and even helped me win my championship when Brees was questionable with his foot.
  • Sam Bradford - Staying with Eagles
  • Brock Osweiler - Signed by Texans
  • Chase Daniel - Signed by Eagles
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick - Free Agent
  • Colin Kaepernick - Trade discussions still looming with the Broncos
1.2.2 Running Back
  • Lamar Miller (MIA) – Signed by the Texans
  • Chris Johnson (ARI) - Staying with Arizona
  • Matt Forte (CHI) - Signed by the Jets
  • Doug Martin (TB) - Staying with the Buccs
  • Alfred Morris (WSH) - Signed by the Cowboys
  • LeGarrette Blount (NE) - Free Agent
  • Chris Ivory (NYJ) - Signed by the Jaguars
  • Ronnie Hillman (DEN) - Free Agent
  • C.J. Anderson (DEN) - Staying with the Broncos
  • Khiry Robinson (NO) - Signed by the Jets
1.2.3 Wide Receiver
  • Alshon Jeffrey (CHI) – Not sure there is a situation where Jeffrey doesn’t end up back in Chicago since he is young and has proven to be a dynamic #1 when healthy.
  • Travis Benjamin - Signed by the Chargers
  • Marvin Jones - Signed by the Lions
  • Mohamed Sanu - Signed by the Falcons
  • Rishard Matthews - Signed by the Titans
1.2.4 Tight End
  • Antonio Gates - Staying with Chargers
  • Zach Miller - Free Agent
  • Martellus Bennett - Traded to the Patriots

1.3 Draft Prospects

I am going to keep this spot reserved for rookies in this draft class that could have immediate fantasy impacts. Usually this list is pretty small and it is hard to tell early on given we don’t know what situation they will end up in, but there was a lot of value to be had from rookies this year that were easy late-round pickups so let’s see how bad we can evaluate talent!

2 Coaching Changes

There have been a flurry of staff changes during the year that could have serious impacts on the offensive side of the ball. Will Lamar Miller find a coach that doesn’t hate him? Will Chip Kelly be able to drag the 49ers to something resembling an offense this year? Only time will tell.



2.1 Head Coaches
  • Hue Jackson (CLE)
  • Adam Gase (MIA)
  • Ben McAdoo (NYG)
  • Doug Pederson (PHI)
  • Chip Kelly (SF)
  • Dirk Koetter (TB)
  • Mike Mularkey (TEN)
2.2 Offensive Coordinators
  • Clyde Christensen (MIA)
  • Ken Zampese (CIN)
  • Terry Robiskie (TEN)
  • Ken Whisenhunt (SD)
  • Brad Childress (KC)

Cleveland Browns have yet to hire a new OC.

3 Useful Resources

3.1 Stats & Analysis

Thanks to Forever Peace and Professor Moriarty for providing the links to the following sites.

OTC and spotrac are the go-to sites for cap info. OTC has the better cap calculator/simulator and the more informative writing (though they swing and miss sometimes). They also do the best at estimating comp picks and they're now trying to estimate probabilities that a player will be cut. I like spotrac for tracking free agents and the interface for basic cap info and contracts is nicer.

Football Perspective updates daily throughout the offseason with real-football statistical analysis that usually has a fantasy football application.

PFF's 2016 FA tracker also provides a neat list of upcoming UFAs/RFAs, and includes IDPs for deviants

the Rookie Scouting Portfolio will have lots of draft analysis of important incoming players. Good for prepping for rookie drafts.

You can find tape (not highlights) of those rookies at draftbreakdown.

My favorite draft-oriented site for team needs and extended big boards is drafttek. Gotta respect the insane amount of work that goes into walter football, but the info is... not reliably good.

Hopefully 3-sigma updates for the new class.

3.2 Podcasts

Special thanks to Cervixalot for providing a nice review of each podcast!

3.2.1 Redraft
Redraft/Season-Long Fantasy:

The Audible
The FootballGuys podcast breaks out into a couple of different topics each week: waiver wire pickups, game recaps and previews, The Audible (Thursday night gamewatch/rountable discussion), On The Couch (One on one interviews with guests each week) and the IDP Roundtable.

I personally only listen to On the Couch and the Audible. Sigmund Bloom is a really likeable guy and a good interviewer. Only knock on Bloom is he tends to always go full hype train on the athletic SPARQ freaks like CMike.

The Audible is usually a good, longer podcast listen each week. In addition to Bloom, I like Matt Waldman a lot - he's really sharp when it comes to Rookie Scouting (his annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio is worth every penny if you do dynasty) and adds a lot to the conversation.

Matt Harmon from NFL.com is on the Audible every once in awhile, and is also pretty good. He has an article series - Reception Perception - that is a great look at Wide Receiver route running/success , and he was the reason I went all in on Allen Robinson last year.

Jene Bramel is a physician and always gives great context and information on injury timetables and predictions.

Cecil Lammey reminds me of a morning zoo radio host, and is not very good.

Harris Football
Christopher Harris used to work for ESPN, and went solo this year with a new website and nearly daily podcast.Harris is a big gametape/film analysis guy, and is worth listening to soley for this portion of the podcast. He way over uses inside jokes, memes and fan submitted nicknames, which can get pretty grating.

Living the Stream
In addition to general banter and solid fantasy advice, JJ Zacharison and CD Carter recommend QBs, TEs and D/STs to stream each week, and have a solid track record of streaming an above average cumulative performer year-long at each position. Hosts have a good rapport.

4for4
Solid information and analysis, but dry delivery. The host John Paulsen consistently ranks as one of the most accurate Fantasy Analysts, and he had some good calls this year - particularly Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall and Delanie Walker.

Rotoviz Radio
Excellent all-around podcast. Good hosts, great guests, good metrics and stats information.

The Faked Goods Dynasty Podcast
One of the more entertaining podcasts out there. Solid mix of redraft and DFS hot takes, but not as much dynasty talk as you'd expect (since it's in the name).

3.2.2 Dynasty

DLF Dynasty Football
Solid overall dynasty resource. General discussion of dynasty value/situations, with occasional dynasty mocks. Three hosts (Jarret, Eric and Karl) that rotate in and out, and they get a good mix of guests from a variety of different fantasy sites/podcasts.

Under the Helmet (UTH)
Another good resource for dynasty valuations and discussions. I just started listening to this one about a month ago, and am enjoying their offseason content. They tend to discuss more deep dynasty/sleeper players than DLF does. Their overall strategy/philosophy on dynasty is pretty strong.

MrSargent fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Apr 11, 2016

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MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.
I will start things off on the coaching side of things. I think the Ben McAdoo hire is good for the Giants offense since the system will remain the same and Eli looked pretty solid this year despite the offense seeming to only run through OBJ. It will be interesting to see what they do on offense since they could clearly use a #2 opposite Beckham and a serviceable run game.

As a 49ers fan, I think the Kelly signing is about the best we could do of the coaches available, maybe except for Hue Jackson. At this point, I have no clue if they stick with Kaep or move on and draft a QB with Gabbert leading in the interim. I feel like if anyone could salvage Kaep, it would be someone familiar with a dual-threat QB, but Kaep's inability to accurately hit the short/intermediate passes may cause them to look elsewhere. Personally, I hope Kaep gets another shot because the play-calling last year was so loving bad and in conjunction with the paper mache line, it wasn't a recipe for success. If they can gain some consistency, Carlos Hyde could be a solid RB2.

MrSargent fucked around with this message at 05:53 on Jan 20, 2016

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
If nothing else in San Francisco, Carlos Hyde is going to be Really Good. Anthony Davis tweeted and deleted that he's officially announcing his return in April, so that will help the line.

That's a pro-tier OP, MrSargent.

I guess we can continue this discussion from the 2015 season thread:

Where does Andrew Luck go?
I say QB5-7 is a-okay, Dandy Kaiser says ~#55 (which is basically the same).

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.
If the Colts make moves to improve the gaping hole that is their Oline, then yah I see Luck easily going in the 5th. Even if that doesn't happen, people will still take him early because its Luck but I would probably avoid until the 7th+. The couple Colts games I watched were just brutal and I don't think anyone can take another season of that.

Who would go before Luck next year? Off the top of my head:

Brady
Rodgers
Wilson
Cam
Big Ben

The real question is what is the latest I can snag Bortles?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

What is RGIII's destiny? Will Johnny Manziel be a starting QB next year? Do the Texans have a QB? How many more years is Drew Brees gonna play? Is Tony Romo too injury prone? Will Kelvin Benjamin regress after a year off and a major injury? Is Tampa Bay going to let Doug Martin go, and if so, is Charles Sims their new bellcow? How much longer can Antonio Gates keep being a premium player, and for that matter, should anyone draft any Chargers, given the presumed disruption of their homeless situation? Is Greg Olsen the #2 TE next year, or does his value drop with K-Benj back? Is Tim Hightower a super-sleeper RB pick? Is Anquan Boldin gonna retire, or get traded, or does Chip Kelly want him? Can Kansas City really keep all four of Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis, Charmander West, and Spencer Ware on staff, given that based on what we saw this season, all of them are potentially RB1s for a team that needs an RB? Assuming not, who will go?

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause
Great OP, this is going to be a really useful thread imo

Spoeank posted:

Where does Andrew Luck go?
I say QB5-7 is a-okay, Dandy Kaiser says ~#55 (which is basically the same).

I'm a VBD / Wait-for-QB guy through and through, so I'm probably not hopping on him until around ~65, but if you've got a good draft through 4 rounds, grabbing him in the mid/late 5th probably isn't a bad move. I'm expecting him to start coming off the board around pick #50, give or take a few; won't be surprised if some over-eager drafters start taking him late 4th, and at that price I say let them have him.

MrSargent posted:

If the Colts make moves to improve the gaping hole that is their Oline, then yah I see Luck easily going in the 5th.

I can't imagine they won't at least try. After watching one of the best potential franchise QBs of all-time take the worst beating this side of David Carr and having it cost them a division title that should've been in the bag, fixing the O-Line should be priorities 1-5.

Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 13:25 on Jan 20, 2016

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Great OP. Here are some good offseason links:

OTC and spotrac are the go-to sites for cap info. OTC has the better cap calculator/simulator and the more informative writing (though they swing and miss sometimes). They also do the best at estimating comp picks and they're now trying to estimate probabilities that a player will be cut. I like spotrac for tracking free agents and the interface for basic cap info and contracts is nicer.

Football Perspective updates daily throughout the offseason with real-football statistical analysis that usually has a fantasy football application.

the Rookie Scouting Portfolio will have lots of draft analysis of important incoming players. Good for prepping for rookie drafts.

You can find tape (not highlights) of those rookies at draftbreakdown.

My favorite draft-oriented site for team needs and extended big boards is drafttek. Gotta respect the insane amount of work that goes into walter football, but the info is... not reliably good.

Hopefully 3-sigma updates for the new class.

Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 14:13 on Jan 20, 2016

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
You guys are projecting Luck way too late. Noodle-armed, totally past it Peyton and Brees both had ADPs of 30-35 this year (according to fantasy pros), and there's absolutely no way Luck goes 20-30 picks later than that after one bad year. 9 QBs went in the first 60 picks this year. This off season will be full of reports about how he's doing amazing again, Dorsett and Moncrief are making huge leaps to join Hilton and provide him with an elite receiving corps, etc etc. Realistically, imo, he'll go in the 3rd at the latest. Luck and Rodgers were both late 1st/early 2nd ADP last year, and neither is going to fall 40-50 picks from that.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Forever_Peace posted:

Great OP. Here are some good offseason links:

Awesome! I will add these to the OP when I get to my computer. And RVP, I think you have a fair point that we could be projecting Luck late. He went in the third in my league last year so I don't think it's entirely unthinkable he could drop 2 rounds but that might be the high end instead of the low. Maybe we are all just hoping he drops that far so we can snag him.

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

RVProfootballer posted:

You guys are projecting Luck way too late. Noodle-armed, totally past it Peyton and Brees both had ADPs of 30-35 this year (according to fantasy pros), and there's absolutely no way Luck goes 20-30 picks later than that after one bad year. 9 QBs went in the first 60 picks this year. This off season will be full of reports about how he's doing amazing again, Dorsett and Moncrief are making huge leaps to join Hilton and provide him with an elite receiving corps, etc etc. Realistically, imo, he'll go in the 3rd at the latest. Luck and Rodgers were both late 1st/early 2nd ADP last year, and neither is going to fall 40-50 picks from that.

I don't think your points don't hold merit, but as years go on, more and more experts preach the wait and see approach for QBs, so it's likely that drafting trends are going to start following suit. Plus I think the "new top tier" QBs next year (ie. late 1st through 3rd ADP) are gong to be Newton, Wilson, and Ben; maybe Brady, with Luck, Rodgers, and Brees falling to that 4th-6th round tier just by virtue of the fact that most leagues (at least that I've seen) don't see more than 4 QBs go in the first 40 picks

e: I'll be really surprised if Luck's ADP is above 40, I'm betting that consensus composite will have him somewhere around 42-46 and as low as early-to-mid 50s like I said earlier

Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Jan 20, 2016

Epi Lepi
Oct 29, 2009

You can hear the voice
Telling you to Love
It's the voice of MK Ultra
And you're doing what it wants

Leperflesh posted:

What is RGIII's destiny? Will Johnny Manziel be a starting QB next year? Do the Texans have a QB? How many more years is Drew Brees gonna play? Is Tony Romo too injury prone? Will Kelvin Benjamin regress after a year off and a major injury? Is Tampa Bay going to let Doug Martin go, and if so, is Charles Sims their new bellcow? How much longer can Antonio Gates keep being a premium player, and for that matter, should anyone draft any Chargers, given the presumed disruption of their homeless situation? Is Greg Olsen the #2 TE next year, or does his value drop with K-Benj back? Is Tim Hightower a super-sleeper RB pick? Is Anquan Boldin gonna retire, or get traded, or does Chip Kelly want him? Can Kansas City really keep all four of Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis, Charmander West, and Spencer Ware on staff, given that based on what we saw this season, all of them are potentially RB1s for a team that needs an RB? Assuming not, who will go?

Before he was shitcanned Lovie said that resigning Doug Martin was a priority for the team. To my knowledge the GM and Koetter still feel the same way, and I know Martin has said he wants to come back, he just built a home in Tampa. The only thing that would prevent him from coming back is if he demands too much money as the FO will not overpay for an RB.

Sims was drafted to be a Matt Forte-esque RB but the Bucs had a lot of success using him and Martin as a tag team this year and with so much to do in other parts of the team it doesn't make sense to me to change up one of the teams strengths. If Martin does not come back for whatever reason I would expect Sims to become the new bellcow. The practice this past season was to have Sims in on 3rd downs, hurry up offense drives, and a single drive in each half to rest Martin/test out Sims ability as an everydown back.

I'm just a fan who reads a bunch of blogs so what do I know.

Professor Moriarty
May 16, 2007
strong vs. Earth attacks
PFF's 2016 FA tracker also provides a neat list of upcoming UFAs/RFAs, and includes IDPs for deviants such as myself.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.
Thanks Professor! Speaking of Free Agents, is it just me or does this year have a crazy number of starting RB's? Forte, Miller, Doug Martin, CJ2K and Chris Ivory could all be on different teams next year. Of those, I feel that Martin and Ivory are the most likely to stay put and CJ2K is my pick for most likely to not match their 2015 production.

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007
I'll be following the Lamar Miller free agency closely. My dynasty team might end up being pretty dependent on him if my league makes some changes we've discussed (trimming the 30man roster down to 25ish).

I didn't realize Dougy Fresh was a FA this year. While I like Sims, I don't think he can be a true bellcow RB1 so it wouldn't surprise if they tried to keep Doug. If they do sell him off I would expect the TB rb situation to be messy next season.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.
I only started playing fantasy 2 years ago, and happened to draft Lamar Miller and watched several Miami games in 2014. I have watched with morbid fascination as the Dolphins wasted a talented back who still managed to shine despite being given the smallest of opportunity to succeed. In 2015, I thought, "Well the staff has to see his production and his big-play ability last year and get him more involved". Little did I know that the Dolphins would self-destruct and poo poo out excuse after excuse as to why there was little focus on the run game. Miller has handled this extremely well, not calling out coaches or complaining about his usage. I hope he goes to a team that appreciates him. God knows there are no shortage of teams who could use a 4.5 YPC back who has developed into a solid receiving threat / pass-blocker. Even despite his frustrating usage last year, Miller remains one of my favorite players.

As for Doug Martin, I don't see why TB would get rid of him. A solid year from Jameis really helped take the pressure off of the run-game and Martin looked really solid hitting holes. He doesn't have that 2nd gear speed to break past the secondary so he doesn't tend to break off many huge plays, but his consistency this year was impressive. I agree that while Sims is good, I don't see him being a 3-down back.

MrSargent fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Jan 20, 2016

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007

MrSargent posted:

I only started playing fantasy 2 years ago, and happened to draft Lamar Miller and watched several Miami games in 2014. I have watched with morbid fascination as the Dolphins wasted a talented back who still managed to shine despite being given the smallest of opportunity to succeed. In 2015, I thought, "Well the staff has to see his production and his big-play ability last year and get him more involved". Little did I know that the Dolphins would self-destruct and poo poo out excuse after excuse as to why there was little focus on the run game. Miller has handled this extremely well, not calling out coaches or complaining about his usage. I hope he goes to a team that appreciates him. God knows there are no shortage of teams who could use a 4.5 YPC back who has developed into a solid receiving threat / pass-blocker. Even despite his frustrating usage last year, Miller remains one of my favorite players.

As for Doug Martin, I don't see why TB would get rid of him. A solid year from Jameis really helped take the pressure off of the run-game and Martin looked really solid hitting holes. He doesn't have that 2nd gear speed to break past the secondary so he doesn't tend to break off many huge plays, but his consistency this year was impressive. I agree that while Sims is good, I don't see him being a 3-down back.

Completely agree with you on Doug Martin and Miller.

I owned Miller and Hill (with Gio as handcuff) the last two seasons in dynasty and I'm very close to parting ways with Hill n Gio to free up roster space because I think Lamar Miller has what it takes to be great if he can get on a good team.

With that said, I think the Cowboys, if that O-line stays intact, is an excellent landing spot. I don't know if their cap situation will allow it though. What are some other teams needing Rbs?

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Houston for sure. Washington. Jets if ivory leaves. Colts. Maybe Giants. Titans. Seattle wouldn't mind more depth if Lynch leaves. And yeah, probably Dallas.

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007

Forever_Peace posted:

Houston for sure. Washington. Jets if ivory leaves. Colts. Maybe Giants. Titans. Seattle wouldn't mind more depth if Lynch leaves. And yeah, probably Dallas.

Is Washington not happy with Matt Jones? I can see Houston, Jets, Colts, and god forbid anyone have to play for the Titans.

Veritek83
Jul 7, 2008

The Irish can't drink. What you always have to remember with the Irish is they get mean. Virtually every Irish I've known gets mean when he drinks.

MacheteZombie posted:

Is Washington not happy with Matt Jones? I can see Houston, Jets, Colts, and god forbid anyone have to play for the Titans.

I think Washington is definitely going to let Alfred Morris go, and I don't think Jones has proved he can be a feature back. I'd imagine they add a low-end FA, draft somebody in the 2nd or 3rd and then see how things shape up in camp.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Veritek83 posted:

I think Washington is definitely going to let Alfred Morris go, and I don't think Jones has proved he can be a feature back. I'd imagine they add a low-end FA, draft somebody in the 2nd or 3rd and then see how things shape up in camp.

I agree. I had high hopes for Jones but he has been pretty bad running the ball this year. On a good team he'd be like an early career Reggie Bush, but there's a real risk in WAS he ends up the next Marcel Reece.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Forever_Peace posted:

I agree. I had high hopes for Jones but he has been pretty bad running the ball this year. On a good team he'd be like an early career Reggie Bush, but there's a real risk in WAS he ends up the next Marcel Reece.

He also has a really high fumble rate, beating out Melvin Gordon and just slightly behind Ameer Abdullah. Historically, rookie RB's have higher fumble rates as they acclimate to NFL hits but its never good to start off your career with ball security concerns to go along with a 3.5 YPC.

I can't see Dallas spending enough money to get Miller this offseason when Darren McFadden looked good behind that line. They have much more pressing needs than at RB. My bet is on Houston or NYG if he is unable to work out a deal with Miami. They both have cap space and a pretty clear need at RB.

MrSargent fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Jan 20, 2016

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

MrSargent posted:

I can't see Dallas spending enough money to get Miller this offseason when Darren McFadden looked good behind that line. They have much more pressing needs than at RB. My bet is on Houston or NYG if he is unable to work out a deal with Miami. They both have cap space and a pretty clear need at RB.

What's up with Jennings, Vereen, and Andre Williams? Jennings closed out the year fantastically (in terms of fantasy, anyway). Do they really need a new RB, or just to commit to Jennings + a 3rd down role for Vereen?

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

RVProfootballer posted:

What's up with Jennings, Vereen, and Andre Williams? Jennings closed out the year fantastically (in terms of fantasy, anyway). Do they really need a new RB, or just to commit to Jennings + a 3rd down role for Vereen?

Miller would be an upgrade over Jennings and Williams blows rear end.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah

RVProfootballer posted:

What's up with Jennings, Vereen, and Andre Williams? Jennings closed out the year fantastically (in terms of fantasy, anyway). Do they really need a new RB, or just to commit to Jennings + a 3rd down role for Vereen?

Jennings has been running great, and Vereen is signed for another 2 years as the passing-down guy. The problem is that Jennings turns 31 in March, and Williams is beyond terrible. Best-case scenario is that Jennings keeps it up for another 2 years, in which case they only need a depth 2-down back to replace Williams. More likely scenario is that Jennings starts to break down, and/or is only effective at a smaller usage rate, in which case the primary volume next year is either going to come from Williams (ick) or somebody that they bring in.

Even if new HC McAdoo is taking a short-term approach to the roster, they're going to want to bring in a new RB.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

LmaoTheKid posted:

Miller would be an upgrade over Jennings and Williams blows rear end.

Miller is going to be like the top or one of the top FA RBs, so presumably will cost a lot more than Jennings.

Forever_Peace posted:

Jennings has been running great, and Vereen is signed for another 2 years as the passing-down guy. The problem is that Jennings turns 31 in March, and Williams is beyond terrible. Best-case scenario is that Jennings keeps it up for another 2 years, in which case they only need a depth 2-down back to replace Williams. More likely scenario is that Jennings starts to break down, and/or is only effective at a smaller usage rate, in which case the primary volume next year is either going to come from Williams (ick) or somebody that they bring in.

Even if new HC McAdoo is taking a short-term approach to the roster, they're going to want to bring in a new RB.

Just doesn't seem like they'd go after a marquee RB signing then, yeah? Get a guy that'll hopefully be dependable if/when Jennings breaks down and Williams keeps being awful, but he's just a back up til then.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)
Miller would be worth every penny and I think Reese will try to make a splash this year to try and prove he's not a lovely GM (though he has a lot more to prove with drafting and addressing the defense).


It's all a pipe dream anyway if Philbin has some kind of coaching position with the Giants.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Miller would be worth every penny and I think Reese will try to make a splash this year to try and prove he's not a lovely GM (though he has a lot more to prove with drafting and addressing the defense).


It's all a pipe dream anyway if Philbin has some kind of coaching position with the Giants.

I just read the report that Philbin is going to the Giants on the offensive side of the ball so yah, Miller isn't going to New York.

Maybe I am underestimating the $ that Miller is going to command. I think that he was stifled so much in Miami that he doesn't have the stats of someone getting 240 carries a season. His talent is undeniable and maybe I am crazy, but I don't see him getting a deal over 6m/year. Murray got 8m/year after a breakout season where he ran for 1800 yards. I'll admit I am pretty ignorant of contract details and how value is determined, im just looking at some raw numbers.

MrSargent fucked around with this message at 01:40 on Jan 21, 2016

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)
Pardon me, I'll be over here barfing.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Pardon me, I'll be over here barfing.

It isn't official yet, there is still hope. That's just what I read from the Miami Herald.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article54729380.html

What do you think Miller will command in $/year?

Sheeple
Nov 1, 2011
Philbin's going to the Colts no?

http://m.colts.com/news/article-1/Colts-Hire-Former-Dolphins-Coach-Joe-Philbin-As-Offensive-Line-Coach/5ecebf89-c906-4fd2-8f4b-12711d391987

Sheeple fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Jan 21, 2016

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Oh good call. Not sure how I missed that when I searched this morning. Wasn't the general consensus among Dolphin fans that Philbin isn't a bad coordinator or assistant, but he is a terrible head coach?

Ben Nevis
Jan 20, 2011
So if Lynch really is done in Seattle, is Rawls a top 10 pick?

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

MrSargent posted:

Oh good call. Not sure how I missed that when I searched this morning. Wasn't the general consensus among Dolphin fans that Philbin isn't a bad coordinator or assistant, but he is a terrible head coach?

I don't want him anywhere near my team. Period.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Ben Nevis posted:

So if Lynch really is done in Seattle, is Rawls a top 10 pick?

Top 10 RB for sure, but not a top 10 pick. I'd take the elite WR and Gronk before Rawls.

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007
In case anyone missed it, Josh Gordon filed for reinstatement into the league. Top 20 draft pick if reinstated?

Chen Kenichi
Jul 20, 2001

MacheteZombie posted:

In case anyone missed it, Josh Gordon filed for reinstatement into the league. Top 20 draft pick if reinstated?

Hell no. High risk/reward and way too many questions right now. Who is his QB, McCown? Is Benjamin or Hartline gonna be on the other side of the field? After a year is he going to be in playing shape? Potentially sure, but if reinstated and a FF draft is the next day I wouldn't consider him until probably rd 5-ish - at LEAST after securing two dependable WRs and a RB. After the draft and some training camp his draft area will be much clearer.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
I think he was joking, but not sure, hah.

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007

RVProfootballer posted:

I think he was joking, but not sure, hah.

Haha yeah he's definitely a late round pick.

Chen Kenichi posted:

Hell no. High risk/reward and way too many questions right now. Who is his QB, McCown? Is Benjamin or Hartline gonna be on the other side of the field? After a year is he going to be in playing shape? Potentially sure, but if reinstated and a FF draft is the next day I wouldn't consider him until probably rd 5-ish - at LEAST after securing two dependable WRs and a RB. After the draft and some training camp his draft area will be much clearer.

McCown or Manziel (if the browns keep him with Hue). I do think if he's reinstated he'll be worth a roster spot, I also think he might be one of those guys who's ADP climbs very quickly during training camp/preseason if he is at least mediocre.
I know people in my league will be very tempted by his potential upside.

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause
I have him as a potential 15th round keeper :getin:

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SouthShoreSamurai
Apr 28, 2009

It is a tale,
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.


Fun Shoe
I have him as a potential $6 keeper.

Unlikely I will keep him over $10 David Johnson or $17 DeAndre Hopkins, though.

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