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Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

The New York Times posted:

Researchers Weigh Risks of Zika Spreading at Rio Olympics

RIO DE JANEIRO — With about 500,000 people expected to visit Brazil for the Olympics here this year, researchers are scrambling to figure how much of a risk the Games might pose in spreading the Zika virus around the world.

Infectious disease specialists are particularly focused on the potential for Zika to spread to the United States. As many as 200,000 Americans are expected to travel to Rio de Janeiro for the Olympics in August. When they return to the Northern Hemisphere and its summer heat, far more mosquitoes will be around to potentially transmit the virus in the United States.

Brazilian researchers say they believe that Zika, which has been linked to severe birth defects, came to their country during another major sports event — the 2014 World Cup — when hundreds of thousands of visitors flowed into Brazil. Virus trackers here say that the strain raging in Brazil probably came from Polynesia, where an outbreak was rattling small islands around the Pacific.

As many as 1.5 million people are believed to have contracted the virus in Brazil since then, and the authorities are now investigating thousands of reported cases of babies being born recently with brain damage and abnormally small heads. Zika has spread to more than 20 nations and territories in the Western Hemisphere, according to the World Health Organization, illustrating how quickly the epidemic can expand even without a big international gathering.

By itself, the virus is not normally life-threatening, and most people who become infected have no symptoms at all.

The big question is whether Zika is responsible for the huge increase in birth defects reported by doctors, hospitals and other medical officials in Brazil over the last few months. That connection has still not been proved.

“There is more and more concern that there may be a causal relationship, but a lot of the work so far is to rule out other possible causes,” Dr. Bruce Aylward, an assistant director general at the World Health Organization, said on Thursday, adding that it might take six to nine months to know for sure.

Asked whether the W.H.O. would advise people not to travel to Brazil for the Olympics, he replied: “I would think that would be very, very unlikely.”

American officials in the United States said Thursday that there was little likelihood of a Zika outbreak in the United States, adding that the country’s long history of mosquito-control efforts had curbed other mosquito-borne diseases, like dengue or chikungunya, in the past.

But because the virus can be carried in a person’s blood to a new country, then passed to others by mosquito bites, researchers are trying to determine whether a big global event like the Olympics could add to the global transmission of the disease.

“Infected travelers departing from Brazil are expected to return to regions that have the potential to sustain transmission,” said Moritz Kraemer, a scholar at Oxford University who researches the global spread of viruses, emphasizing that many travelers would return to their home countries during the summer. “So the international spread of the virus might increase substantially due to higher activity of mosquitoes.”

Using worldwide temperature profiles and air travel routes, Mr. Kraemer and other researchers found that more than 60 percent of the population of the United States lives in areas where Zika can be transmitted during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, when the Games will be held. A much smaller number, about 23 million people, live in parts of the United States where Zika can be transmitted year-round, like Florida and Texas, the researchers found.

In the Southern Hemisphere, by contrast, it is summer right now, and mosquitoes are rapidly spreading the disease in Brazil and other warm parts of Latin America and the Caribbean.

That may pose a particular risk for big events like Brazil’s Carnival, which goes into full swing next month, but Olympics officials emphasize that it will be winter in Rio when the Games are held, which could limit the spread of mosquito-borne diseases.

Even so, Brazilian virologists contend that mosquitoes can still easily transmit viruses in Rio and other tropical cities year-round, pointing out that Zika may have begun spreading in Brazil during its winter in 2014.

Brazil has been one of the hardest hit countries and the authorities are under intense pressure domestically to contain the Zika epidemic right away, regardless of the Olympics.

Mario Andrada, a spokesman for the Rio Olympics organizing committee, said that there had been no discussions about canceling the Games or moving them to another city because of Zika.

He added that teams were reviewing Olympic venues daily to eliminate problems like stagnant water where mosquitoes can breed. He said officials were also seeking to work on the “psychological aspect” of athletes being fearful about getting Zika by guaranteeing a supply of mosquito repellent and by keeping teams from every nation informed about the virus.

“The risk is no joke, so we will maintain this inspection program until the end of the Paralympics,” Mr. Andrada said, referring to the multisport event that will be held in September, after the Olympics.

Some Brazilian virus specialists contend that the measures adopted by Olympic officials are meager given the scope of the Zika epidemic in Brazil. Beyond the risk to infants, hundreds of people around the country have been stricken by Guillain-Barré, a syndrome that Brazilian officials warn may be connected to Zika and can leave patients paralyzed for weeks.

“It’s a step in the right direction to inspect facilities, but this is something that should have been done on a broader basis five years ago, not just in the months before the Games,” said Carlos Granato, an infectious diseases specialist at the Federal University of São Paulo. “Mosquitoes persist in a multitude of areas around Rio and other Brazilian cities, so simply keeping Olympic venues free of them is not enough.”

The fears over Zika are merely the latest challenge to the Rio Olympics. Sailors have complained angrily about competing in the city’s sewage-infested bay. Prosecutors have asserted that builders paid bribes to win contracts for Olympic venues. Clashes have broken out over evictions to make way for Olympic projects. Deep spending cuts have come as Brazil reels from its worst economic slump in decades.

“Plagued by so many problems, Rio is clearly in a league of its own among host cities of the Olympics in recent memory,” Andrew Zimbalist, a scholar who specializes in sports economics at Smith College, said.

While ticket sales had already been disappointing organizers, concerns are growing that travelers from the United States and other countries could cancel plans to visit because of Zika.

“People have called to ask, ‘If this explodes, how would I cancel my trip?’” said Anbritt Stengele, president of Sports Traveler, a company in Chicago that specializes in travel packages for major sporting events. She said that about 15 percent of her clients who had booked trips for the Olympics had called in recent days to ask about the Zika virus and the possibility of modifying their trips.

“It’s a tricky situation for us, because everything is paid for in advance — airfare, hotels, ground transportation,” Ms. Stengele said. She said most of the vacation groups traveling to the Olympics included women and families with children.

“This is a completely different demographic,” she said, compared with the largely male tourists who attended the 2014 World Cup. “The Olympics is about families.”

Virologists are trying to piece together how the virus began spreading in Brazil, and where it might go from here.

Dr. Felipe Scassi, a researcher at the University of São Paulo’s Tropical Medicine Institute, said that an Asian strain of Zika appeared to have made its way here from Easter Island, a part of Polynesia controlled by Chile, during the World Cup. After spreading in northeast Brazil, Zika was found in neighboring Suriname and is now being transmitted up and down Latin America and the Caribbean.

Despite the rapid spread of the virus, Dr. Scassi said that the epidemic could look different in Brazil a few months from now.

“The colder temperatures should diminish populations in various cities, including Rio,” he said. “The risk in relation to Zika during the Olympics will still exist, but it will be a lower risk than now.”

Now athletes and fans alike are trying to determine whether it makes sense to travel to Rio. Alysia Montaño, an American runner who competed at the United States Track and Field Championships while eight months pregnant, said the Zika virus could affect her decision to bring her young daughter, who will turn 2 in August, to the Games.

“The greatest thing is that I will not be a pregnant woman at the Olympics,” said Ms. Montaño, who is hoping to compete in Rio. “Having my daughter there is really, really important to me, but I’ll need to consider if she’ll be a spectator at home or at the Games themselves.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/29/world/americas/brazil-zika-rio-olympics.html

The situation is Brazil, along with a lot of South America, is in stages of a pandemic of the Zika virus which was previously an African illness related to dengue fever. Zika is linked to serious children birth defects and, as it says, a race is now on for a cure and vaccine.

The question is should the Olympics be held when, in a worst case scenario, it could cause a worldwide pandemic? There was already arguments against the Olympics (financial reasons, anti-capitalist reasons, bribery reasons, anti-sport reasons, the disgusting state of Brazil to hold the events at all - specifically water events) but now there is a physical concern that could have worldwide ramifications.

Should countries boycott the Olympics from a serious health concern? Should they be cancelled altogether with all the money invested to be disregarded crippling Brazil further? What will happen in a few months even if headway is made for a vaccine or cure but no information on the long term effects?

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A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Lid posted:

Should countries boycott the Olympics from a serious health concern?
Yes. Northern European states, where the mosquito that spread the virus don't exist, will have a much easier time winning if everyone from the rest of the world stays home. Seriously though, yeah, seems like the best course of action if the games aren't outright cancelled.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.
Theres an inverse problem - even if the Olympics are moved what about athletes from countries afflicted by the Zika pandemic?

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Lid posted:

Theres an inverse problem - even if the Olympics are moved what about athletes from countries afflicted by the Zika pandemic?

Voluntary isolation and self-monitoring is much easier to maintain on the smaller population of "individuals who are olympic athletes" than it is on the population of "all individuals who travel internationally to attend the olympics."

The issue is clear, and yet once again Margaret Chan refuses to act. WHO should immediately declare the Zika epidemic a PHEIC.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Yes. Northern European states, where the mosquito that spread the virus don't exist, will have a much easier time winning if everyone from the rest of the world stays home. Seriously though, yeah, seems like the best course of action if the games aren't outright cancelled.

Shoulda held the games in Chicago. Alas, IOC is far too corrupt an organization to act in the olympic's best interest.

WorldsStongestNerd
Apr 28, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
Best case scenario: The games aren't cancelled, and the virus spreads around the earth. It becomes as common as hpv or herpes a. The human pop plummets in a generation as the majority of babies are born with defects. Some super white northern sub type like Scandinavians wind up being immune and inheriting the earth..

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

My Imaginary GF posted:

Voluntary isolation and self-monitoring is much easier to maintain on the smaller population of "individuals who are olympic athletes" than it is on the population of "all individuals who travel internationally to attend the olympics."
Plus Olympic athletes seem like they could be relatively easily be made comfortable with isolation. Basically just put everyone from a single sport (or related sports) in a place with the right training equipment/facilities to train at an Olympic level. Also hand out condoms like crazy because those are going to be needed.

My Imaginary GF posted:

Shoulda held the games in Chicago. Alas, IOC is far too corrupt an organization to act in the olympic's best interest.
The IOC is too corrupt an organization to act in the interest of anyone, to be fair.

WorldsStrongestNerd posted:

Best case scenario: The games aren't cancelled, and the virus spreads around the earth. It becomes as common as hpv or herpes a. The human pop plummets in a generation as the majority of babies are born with defects. Some super white northern sub type like Scandinavians wind up being immune and inheriting the earth..
Sweden's institutional experience with eugenics combined with its arms industry will pay off big time.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Plus Olympic athletes seem like they could be relatively easily be made comfortable with isolation. Basically just put everyone from a single sport (or related sports) in a place with the right training equipment/facilities to train at an Olympic level. Also hand out condoms like crazy because those are going to be needed.

The IOC is too corrupt an organization to act in the interest of anyone, to be fair.

Sweden's institutional experience with eugenics combined with its arms industry will pay off big time.

This doesn't account for the audience members, a lot of people from a lot of countries fly in for the Olympics including dignatories, politicians, royalty... You can't isolate them all. Or at all, considering they require stadiums where you will be near infected people.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Lid posted:

This doesn't account for the audience members, a lot of people from a lot of countries fly in for the Olympics including dignatories, politicians, royalty... You can't isolate them all. Or at all, considering they require stadiums where you will be near infected people.
Well yeah, but we were just discussing the athletes.

Funky See Funky Do
Aug 20, 2013
STILL TRYING HARD
Ah why bother doing anything. One of these viruses is going to wreck our poo poo sooner or later. It may as well be this one.

Starshark
Dec 22, 2005
Doctor Rope

Funky See Funky Do posted:

Ah why bother doing anything. One of these viruses is going to wreck our poo poo sooner or later. It may as well be this one.

I'd be more inclined to agree if the virus was fatal, but only causing birth defects seems like such a half measure.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

Starshark posted:

I'd be more inclined to agree if the virus was fatal, but only causing birth defects seems like such a half measure.

the birth defects are the most noted feature, but it also causes paralysis among other symptoms by messing up the nervous system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_syndrome

IAMNOTADOCTOR
Sep 26, 2013

Lid posted:

the birth defects are the most noted feature, but it also causes paralysis among other symptoms by messing up the nervous system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_syndrome

The flue, soms vaccines and pretty much any infectious disease can rarely cause guillain barre disease. I'm not sure if the reported association stronger than what is to be expected in any infectious disease. Moreover, guillain barre is usually self limiting with a complete remission of symptoms.

I think it's still way to early to be worried about this vector borne disease if your not living in the affected areas. The relation with birth defects is still very preliminary.

Also, nice to see that MIGF is still angry at Chan.

Wipfmetz
Oct 12, 2007

Sitzen ein oder mehrere Wipfe in einer Lore, so kann man sie ueber den Rand der Lore hinausschauen sehen.

Starshark posted:

I'd be more inclined to agree if the virus was fatal, but only causing birth defects seems like such a half measure.
Look at this scrub. You spread and collect points while trying to stay under the radar. If you end up too lethal too early, your hosts will die out or humanity will pushing the cure too soon.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Starshark posted:

I'd be more inclined to agree if the virus was fatal, but only causing birth defects seems like such a half measure.

How much is it worth to you to know that your unborn child is free of a permanent and untreatable birth defect which in 85% of cases will limit their intellectual development and functional life skills?

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007


Get ready for Price Time, Bitch



They should definitely hold them and then in 18 years they can host the worlds largest Special Olympics.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
Complication rate is not super horrifying, but we don't especially want it to become endemic.

I will defer to the CDC and their relatives on this one.

ukle
Nov 28, 2005

My Imaginary GF posted:

The issue is clear, and yet once again Margaret Chan refuses to act. WHO should immediately declare the Zika epidemic a PHEIC.

They are meeting today to decide to do exactly that. If they do declare it expect pressure to start to mount to delay the Olympics by a year; they won't cancel it but a delay of a year should be enough for a vaccine to have been created, tested, and produced in sufficient numbers.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

quote:

Rio organizers have been scouring Olympics venues daily for two weeks, looking for standing water where mosquitoes breed. Rio spokesman Mario Andrada said the inspections would continue daily until the games open on Aug. 5. That will be in Brazil's winter when it's cooler, drier and the mosquito population is smaller.

Andrada emphasized that no one is publicly talking about cancelling or postponing the games.

"This has never been mentioned. No way," Andrada said. "It's impossible to do that. There is no reason to do that."

So it's official - it is being discussed and it's not impossible to do and they are freaking the gently caress out.

SHISHKABOB
Nov 30, 2012

Fun Shoe
So we're all gonna die. Cool.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:
For the good of the world, the US needs to bomb every stadium in Brazil. It would in effect be a preemptive strike on biological warfare laboratories, and entirely justified given the stated intention of bringing thousands of Americans there where they will be infected with a terrible disease they can then bring home to the US.

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost
On a related note, but the crazy people reactions towards Zika are at the leavel you'd expect for vaccinations. Quite strange.

Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




Solkanar512 posted:

On a related note, but the crazy people reactions towards Zika are at the leavel you'd expect for vaccinations. Quite strange.

i saw articles already trying to blame the birth defects on a vaccine over the weekend. vaccine people aren't going to go away just because they're wrong.

FilthyImp
Sep 30, 2002

Anime Deviant
So this is just one of many unintended effects Climate Change is going to have on nations/the world, correct? Warmer climates, more mosquitoes in new areas, more chances for proliferation of formerly minor, localized diseases?

Or did we just somehow miss the Tiny Head virus for like 50 years?

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

Real hurthling! posted:

i saw articles already trying to blame the birth defects on a vaccine over the weekend. vaccine people aren't going to go away just because they're wrong.

There was that, and tons of concern trolling over "what about the ecosystems if we get rid of the mosquitoes? What will birds and frogs eat??". Of course, the fact that it's an invasive species never came to mind but it was fun watching a bunch of rich white folks concern themselves with bird/frog populations over the lives of poorer, darker skinned children.

ukle
Nov 28, 2005

FilthyImp posted:

So this is just one of many unintended effects Climate Change is going to have on nations/the world, correct? Warmer climates, more mosquitoes in new areas, more chances for proliferation of formerly minor, localized diseases?

Or did we just somehow miss the Tiny Head virus for like 50 years?

Its not an effect of Climate Change, its an effect of Globalization. This is a Virus that has been known about for 60 years, but its been stuck in a corner of Africa and seemingly has little effect there (assumed to be resistance in the local population after being exposed to it for thousands of years), but thanks to the increased mobility of the worlds population its got a hitch from its homeland to the America's where there isn't any resistance to it so its spreading like wildfire.

The microcephaly was an unknown side affect, and its only assumed given its from Zika due to autopsies done on babies who have died with microcephaly and discovered the presence of virus in them. Also microcephaly is very nasty, and will kill them usually around early adulthood, some times earlier hence why their has already been some babies die. Children with it generally require 24/7 care as well its one of the worst conditions for children around, hence why Zika needs to be dealt with ASAP.

ukle fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Feb 1, 2016

frajaq
Jan 30, 2009

#acolyte GM of 2014


I love Zika Virus, it's an excellent excuse for the Olympics to not happen here, gently caress the olympics

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

The mosquito needs to go extinct frankly. gently caress ISIS, lets wipe out those other little fuckers.

davebo
Nov 15, 2006

Parallel lines do meet, but they do it incognito
College Slice
Super looking forward to my honeymoon in Costa Rica this March with my fiance who's trying to conceive. At least the map CNN had up earlier today showed every country except Nicaragua and Costa Rica as red, so I'm sure the mosquitoes just stop at the border.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

quote:

The World Health Organisation has declared that the clusters of brain-damaged babies born in Brazil – linked to but not proven to be caused by the Zika virus – constitute a public health emergency of international concern.

The declaration, made by the WHO director Margaret Chan, will trigger funding for research to try to establish whether the Zika virus, spread by mosquitoes, is responsible for the large numbers of babies born with abnormally small heads in Brazil. It will also put resources behind a massive effort to prevent pregnant women becoming infected and, through mosquito control, stop the virus spreading.

Chan called the birth of thousands of babies with microcephaly “an extraordinary event and a public health threat to other parts of the world”. She was speaking following a meeting of the WHO’s international health regulations emergency committee, summoned to advise the director general on whether to make the declaration, which calls in international resources and expertise.

Well its now a PHEIC, they're moving fast.

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003
Zika seems like such a pathetic healthcare emergency after we could freak out about Ebola in '14.
Shrunken heads have nothing on hemorhraging fevers.

ugh its Troika
May 2, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Nonsense posted:

The mosquito needs to go extinct frankly. gently caress ISIS, lets wipe out those other little fuckers.

A cumulonimbus of DDT, enveloping South America.

Thesaurasaurus
Feb 15, 2010

"Send in Boxbot!"

Nonsense posted:

The mosquito needs to go extinct frankly. gently caress ISIS, lets wipe out those other little fuckers.

Serious question, is there a single ecological niche the mosquito fills that justifies its continued existence? I mean, nobody wept for smallpox.

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

Lid posted:

Well its now a PHEIC, they're moving fast.

What's the significance of this status?

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

Thesaurasaurus posted:

Serious question, is there a single ecological niche the mosquito fills that justifies its continued existence? I mean, nobody wept for smallpox.

Funnily enough it seems the answer is no, we could wipe out mosquitos and it really wouldn't matter.

http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100721/full/466432a.html

Yardbomb
Jul 11, 2011

What's with the eh... bretonnian dance, sir?

So it's unanimous, we cleanse the world of mosquitoes, gently caress em.

duz
Jul 11, 2005

Come on Ilhan, lets go bag us a shitpost


-Troika- posted:

A cumulonimbus of DDT, enveloping South America.

Amusingly that wouldn't actually be that bad in developing countries. The upsides of ddt outweighs the negatives there.

Dead Cosmonaut
Nov 14, 2015

by FactsAreUseless
Brazil is a disgusting shithole and I'd be surprised if that was the only virus that was spreading around during the Olympics

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Thesaurasaurus posted:

Serious question, is there a single ecological niche the mosquito fills that justifies its continued existence? I mean, nobody wept for smallpox.

They feed the lake fishies.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Yardbomb posted:

So it's unanimous, we cleanse the world of mosquitoes, gently caress em.

So what I wonder is, whether there's be an over-emphasis on study of mosquitos as a vector for detrimental infections, and an under-emphasis on the potential for mosquitos to be a vector for infections which ultimately result in a benefit in individuals and animals.

It's fairly easy to say "death to all mosquitos;" it's more difficult when you advocate looking into understanding the potential unknown unknowns of mosquito eradication.

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Sucrose
Dec 9, 2009
The Olympic gods must hate Brazil, this is the worst possible time for them to be holding them. Another year or two and a vaccine would probably be out.

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