USPOL March

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citybeatnik: Mar 1, 2013; You Are All
WEIRDOS

Listening to my folks try to talk themselves in to voting for Trump because "that woman is just so corrupt and evil" is always fun. Especially when you get to counter stuff like "they have over a hundred and fifty FBI agents investigating her!". And then they latch on to the next lie down the chain.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 05:35

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 21:56

Islam is the Lite Rock FM: Jul 27, 2007; by exmarx

Donald Trump will not be president. Stop azrying.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 05:49

Evil Fluffy: Jul 13, 2009; Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.

Combed Thunderclap posted:

Not sure if this particular detail has already been discussed to death when we already talked about the Unaoil corruption scandal but confirmation that things are about to explode has arrived:

In unrelated news, numerous wealthy oil execs have suddenly taken vacations to Dubai.

....nah not really. Punishing the global oil industry is as likely as punishments for Wall Street loving up the world's economy.

Toph Bei Fong posted:

Is this film culturally appropriative of English culture by an American film studio? Do Traver's objections to what was done to her work matter more than those of the critics, moviegoers, and children who have enjoyed the film for the past 50 years? Does it affect your answer to know that Disney is planning to film a sequel to the original Mary Poppins? Is putting "Based on the Mary Poppins novels by P.L. Travers" in the opening credits enough?

Don't worry, J.K. Rowling is getting revenge with her upcoming movie(?) based on the US's wizard world which includes some Peter Pan-grade Native American caricatures.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 05:53

Toph Bei Fong: Feb 29, 2008

Evil Fluffy posted:

Don't worry, J.K. Rowling is getting revenge with her upcoming movie(?) based on the US's wizard world which includes some Peter Pan-grade Native American caricatures.

Dang, really?

It needs to be, like, a bunch of guys in leather jackets and rolled up jeans eating hamburgers on their motorcycles and classic cars, and who get their magic from their magic guns (no wands) and cowboy hats.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 06:09

Die Sexmonster!: Nov 30, 2005

Toph Bei Fong posted:

Dang, really?

It needs to be, like, a bunch of guys in leather jackets and rolled up jeans eating hamburgers on their motorcycles and classic cars, and who get their magic from their magic guns (no wands) and cowboy hats.

Sounds vaguely like Final Fantasy XV. :v:

# ? Apr 1, 2016 06:14

sugar free jazz: Mar 5, 2008

Toph Bei Fong posted:

Dang, really?

It needs to be, like, a bunch of guys in leather jackets and rolled up jeans eating hamburgers on their motorcycles and classic cars, and who get their magic from their magic guns (no wands) and cowboy hats.

That sounds fuckin sweet though

# ? Apr 1, 2016 06:18

Ratoslov: Feb 15, 2012; Now prepare yourselves! You're the guests of honor at the Greatest Kung Fu Cannibal BBQ Ever!

Toph Bei Fong posted:

It needs to be, like, a bunch of guys in leather jackets and rolled up jeans eating hamburgers on their motorcycles and classic cars, and who get their magic from their magic guns (no wands) and cowboy hats.

Also, long conversations about gun-mages with strong opinions on barbecue or pizza. Like, several pages long.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 06:20

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

Toph Bei Fong posted:

Dang, really?

It needs to be, like, a bunch of guys in leather jackets and rolled up jeans eating hamburgers on their motorcycles and classic cars, and who get their magic from their magic guns (no wands) and cowboy hats.

It's set in the 1920s, so a little early for a lot of that.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:04

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

computer parts posted:

It's set in the 1920s, so a little early for a lot of that.

Klansmen lighting crosses with wands and all of their patronuses are General Lee.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:06

Tiler Kiwi: Feb 26, 2011

its going to be bioshock except with funny hats

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:07

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

So yeah, Trump is unbelievably hosed.

Donald Trump's Poll Numbers Collapse as General Election Looms

NBC News posted:

The bottom is dropping out for Donald Trump.

While Trump was never popular outside of his loyal slice of GOP voters, a raft of new polls show his national position hitting new lows, including with groups that are supposed to form his base.

America's widespread loathing for Trump puts further pressure on Republican delegates to deny him the nomination in July if he falls short of a majority, a move that would set off an ugly civil war but that some in the party believe would be necessary to stave off generational damage.

A collection of recent surveys by Real Clear Politics finds, on average, 30 percent of respondents hold a favorable view of Trump versus 63 percent who hold a negative one. Those numbers are roughly parallel to former President George W. Bush's approval ratings during his final months in office, which set the stage for President Barack Obama's landslide victory.

Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton leads Trump by double digits in at least six national polls in March, even as her own favorability ratings appear weak. Using 2008 as a reference point again, Obama's popular vote margin against Sen. John McCain was just more than 7 percent.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecaster affiliated with the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, handicapped the general election based on the latest numbers and the results were not pretty for the GOP. According to their best guess, Democrats would begin a race against Trump with states totaling 347 electoral votes already solidly in their camp or leaning that way. They need 270 to win.

Top Democratic strategists have warned that Trump could be a tougher out than he appears. His campaign has emphasized its strength with blue collar white voters, and some Clinton allies and labor officials have expressed concern that Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin might flip under the right circumstances.

Recent polls, however, strongly undermine the idea Trump has the kind of popularity needed to make that approach work. A Washington Post/ABC News poll early this month found a majority of non-college whites (52 percent) and white men (51 percent) disapproved of Trump � a shocking find given their importance to his coalition.

There are red flags at the state level as well. A Marquette University poll of Wisconsin voters this week found 70 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump. Clinton led Trump by 10 points, despite only tying Sen. Ted Cruz in the same poll.

Trump's numbers are horrific among black and Hispanic voters � two groups that the RNC argued the party needed to aggressively court in its autopsy of the 2012 election. Some Republican strategists have argued, however, that the GOP could still squeak by in 2016 by improving their margins with white votersalone.

That second option looks a lot harder, however, the more Trump exacerbates his already weak position with women.

The Post/ABC News survey found three-quarters of women held an unfavorable view of Trump � and that was before his campaign manager was charged with battery against a female reporter and Trump proposed "some form of punishment" for women who terminate a pregnancy should abortion be outlawed. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll the same month found 70 percent of women nationally held an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

For a worst case scenario, look no further than former Senate candidate Todd Akin who won just 39 percent of the total vote in red-leaning Missouri in 2012 after claiming women rarely get pregnant from"legitimate rape."

Trump's remarks on abortion Wednesday infuriated Republicans and pro-life activists who have spent years trying to train candidates to avoid inflammatory rhetoric and positions around the issue. Trumpwalked back his comments the same day, but his frequent blow-ups are heightening fears within the GOP that Republicans down the ballot will spend the entire election reacting to his stumbles.

For the first time this cycle, some analysts are suggesting the Republican House majority � commonly thought to be impregnable until at least 2022 thanks to GOP-friendly maps � could come into play if Trump's numbers were to hold and the party fractured over his candidacy. As for the Senate, Democrats started the year on offense thanks to an outsize number of vulnerable GOP seats and it's hard to imagine the majority not changing hands in a crushing Trump defeat.

Adding to Republican woes, Obama's approval rating has been perking up and is now consistently in positive territory for the first time since early in his second term. With unemployment at less than 5 percent, gas prices low, and the economy growing at a steady pace, the environment looks more favorable for Democrats than might have been expected even a few months ago.

There's still a decent chance Trump will not be the nominee. He's unlikely to win a contested convention thanks to his weak support among party leaders and a complicated set of delegate rules that make it hard for him to pack the room with loyal supporters.

Such a move would come with its own downsides, however. Trump has predicted "riots" from his supporters if he loses, and it seems highly likely he would direct his voters to not support the Republican nominee in November. That would likely do fatal damage to someone like Cruz, whose path to victory is difficult enough without Trump undermining him.

This would normally be the point in an article where all the caveats are listed: It's early, maybe Trump can improve his standing with voters, perhaps he can heal rifts within the GOP by November, etc.

Unlike past candidates, however, Trump is almost universally well known at this point and respondents to polls indicate strong feelings about his candidacy. He's also yet to weather any attacks from the left, where Democrats are preparing a massive campaign to drag him down in ways that his Republican rivals cannot. Unless something big changes, Trump could cross a point of no return well before the Republican convention takes place.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:24

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

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# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:26

CelestialScribe: Jan 16, 2008

I'm not saying he will win.

I'm saying stop acting as though he definitely won't.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:35

Mechafunkzilla: Sep 11, 2006; If you want a vision of the future...

CelestialScribe posted:

I'm not saying he will win.

I'm saying stop acting as though he definitely won't.

He definitely won't win, though.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:40

Serrath: Mar 17, 2005; I have nothing of value to contribute; Ham Wrangler

Are the two possible outcomes of the Republican primary either Trump winning enough delegates to cinch the nomination outright or a brokered convention? Or are there enough delegates still in play that Cruz has a chance of getting enough delegates to win the nomination in the first round of voting?

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:42

sit on my Facebook: Jun 20, 2007; ASS GAS OR GRASS
No One Rides for FREE
In the Trumplord Holy Land

The best part about that story about Trump's poll numbers imploding is that if there's anybody who can give the Donald a run for his money in the "unelectability" category, it's Ted Cruz.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:45

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

CelestialScribe posted:

I'm not saying he will win.

I'm saying stop acting as though he definitely won't.

Short of Hillary dropping dead from a stroke on November 1st, he won't win. And probably wouldn't win even then.

Serrath posted:

Are the two possible outcomes of the Republican primary either Trump winning enough delegates to cinch the nomination outright or a brokered convention? Or are there enough delegates still in play that Cruz has a chance of getting enough delegates to win the nomination in the first round of voting?

This is more Joementum's speed, but I'm pretty sure that STOP TRUMP(!!!) has to happen at a brokered convention.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:45

woke wedding drone: Jun 1, 2003; by exmarx; Fun Shoe

DemeaninDemon posted:

Donald Trump will not be president. Stop azrying.

But if he is, it's gonna feel like this:

(from the piece 1337JiveTurkey posted)

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:45

1337JiveTurkey: Feb 17, 2005

CelestialScribe posted:

I'm not saying he will win.

I'm saying stop acting as though he definitely won't.

If you're trying to motivate people over the possibility that he'll win, at this point try motivating people over the possibility that he'll let Democrats take the House.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:47

Islam is the Lite Rock FM: Jul 27, 2007; by exmarx

CelestialScribe posted:

I'm not saying he will win.

I'm saying stop acting as though he definitely won't.

I cannot say with 100% certainty I won't die tomorrow of meteor either.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:53

Serrath: Mar 17, 2005; I have nothing of value to contribute; Ham Wrangler

Zeroisanumber posted:

This is more Joementum's speed, but I'm pretty sure that STOP TRUMP(!!!) has to happen at a brokered convention.

That's my reading of the situation too; I'd love to be corrected but I understand that Cruz has 465 delegates and there are 848 remaining from all remaining primaries. To secure 1,237, Cruz would need to win 91% of remaining delegates which seems impossible at this point.

If my numbers don't add up, let me know.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 07:59

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

It's three minutes past midnight west coast time, this thread belongs in the dust bin of history.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 08:03

Gobbeldygook: May 13, 2009; Hates Native American people and tries to justify their genocides.

Put this racist on ignore immediately!

Serrath posted:

Are the two possible outcomes of the Republican primary either Trump winning enough delegates to cinch the nomination outright or a brokered convention? Or are there enough delegates still in play that Cruz has a chance of getting enough delegates to win the nomination in the first round of voting?

There's also option 2.5: Trump goes to the convention with less than 1247 committed delegates, like 50-100 short, everyone pops the champagne because they STOPPED TRUMP!, and he wins on the first ballot because some portion of the 200+ uncommitted delegates are just as crazy as the rest of the party.

Unless they repeal the rule 40 (the Ron Paul rule), the only other candidate who will even be allowed on the ballot will be Cruz.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 08:13

Teriyaki Koinku: Nov 25, 2008; Bread! Bread! Bread!

Bread! BREAD! BREAD!

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

It's three minutes past midnight west coast time, this thread belongs in the dust bin of history.

We are all April's Fools now.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 08:31

Serrath: Mar 17, 2005; I have nothing of value to contribute; Ham Wrangler

Gobbeldygook posted:

There's also option 2.5: Trump goes to the convention with less than 1247 committed delegates, like 50-100 short, everyone pops the champagne because they STOPPED TRUMP!, and he wins on the first ballot because some portion of the 200+ uncommitted delegates are just as crazy as the rest of the party.

Unless they repeal the rule 40 (the Ron Paul rule), the only other candidate who will even be allowed on the ballot will be Cruz.

Oh uhh I didn't know they could do this. Am I mistaken in my assumption that all delegates enter the convention bound to vote for a candidate on the first vote? Where do the uncommitted delegates come from?

E: to add, I thought even delegates pledged to a candidate no longer running were still obligated to vote for that candidate in the first vote because technically candidates only "suspend" their campaign, not drop out completely

Serrath fucked around with this message at 08:35 on Apr 1, 2016

# ? Apr 1, 2016 08:33

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

Serrath posted:

Oh uhh I didn't know they could do this. Am I mistaken in my assumption that all delegates enter the convention bound to vote for a candidate on the first vote? Where do the uncommitted delegates come from?

There are about ~150 delegates that are not pledged, mostly from the members of the RNC.

Serrath posted:

E: to add, I thought even delegates pledged to a candidate no longer running were still obligated to vote for that candidate in the first vote because technically candidates only "suspend" their campaign, not drop out completely

Because States' Rights, there is no uniform pattern to this. Some state delegates are pledged the winner of their primary on the first ballot, others for longer than that. Sometimes a delegate becomes unpledged if their pledgee has dropped out (and I'm not sure how the weasel words "suspended campaign" interacts with this), while other times a delegate still has to vote for Rand Paul or whoever on the first ballot.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 08:48

Serrath: Mar 17, 2005; I have nothing of value to contribute; Ham Wrangler

Thanks for the corrections, didn't know the two above points

# ? Apr 1, 2016 08:54

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 21:56

ComradeCosmobot: Dec 4, 2004; USPOL July

USPOL April is finally open.

# ? Apr 1, 2016 09:17

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