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Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


Ignore my posts!
I'm aggressively wrong about everything!
ELECTION NOW!-ish

We go to the polls on July 2nd, so now seems as good a time as any to look at why nobody running has any chance of victory.

The Liberal Party



Currently led by Malcolm Turnbull if you believe him when he says it, the right-wing Liberal party hasn't actually changed one iota since switching leaders. They called a double dissolution off the back of a budget so thoroughly unimpressive that most of us still aren't sure what the point was.
Why they won't win: Quite frankly the entire country's tired of their poo poo, and they're too slipshod to put forward any policies to change that.

The National Party



Now led by Barnaby Joyce, the rurally-focused Nationals Party stand for exactly what the Liberal party tells them they stand for. I've heard tell that they may be the voice of Australia, though.
Why they won't win: They're now led by Barnaby Joyce.

The Labor Party



According to my notes, the Labor party are led by somebody named Bill Shorten. The union-backed center-left party has been doing fairly well at putting forward strong policies, from what I'm reading here.
Why they won't win: I'm pretty sure it's not legally possible to elect a party with no leader.

The Greens



Led by Richard Di Natale, the Greens are the good old protest-voters party of choice, as well as being a really solid economically/socially left-wing and (of course) environmentally-focused party.
Why they won't win: Because nobody votes Greens because the Greens won't win.

Katter's Australia Party



Led by Bob Katter, who's apparently still around and representing Far North Queensland after getting neglected by the rest of the country.
Why they won't win: The hat lost its novelty.

NXT: Nick Xenophon Team



Led by Nick Xenophon, who has shown disappointingly little wrestling capability but pretty solid centrist views while speaking for South Australia.
Why they won't win: It doesn't matter if the entirety of South Australia votes for you, Western Sydney still won't know your name.

Palmer United Party (and remnants)



Wannabe John Hammond billionaire Clive Palmer's party disintegrated around him in the years since the last election, and the man himself isn't bothering to seek re-election. Ex-members Jaquie Lambie and Glenn Lazarus are splitting off on their own, being batshit insane and pretty nondescriptly competent respectively.
Why they won't win: The Proud Moms Of Fuckups demographic isn't as big as you'd think it is, since most of them vote for their sons.

Ricky Muir/Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party



It's serendipity that someone like Muir got elected, and even moreso that he turned out to be an awesome guy. He's been a really solid member of parliament these past few years for a literal poo poo-slinger.
Why he won't win: To be quite honest, we're not sure how he got in the first time.

David Leyonhelm/Liberal Democrats



Libertarian David Leyonhelm and his unspellable surname (I think there's a J in there somewhere) are basically just that weird friend of that one family member that you hear about every get-together, but you've never seen actually do anything.
Why he won't win: To be quite honest, we didn't want him the first time.

And the crowd favorite for this election...

Informal Vote

Cleretic fucked around with this message at 14:04 on May 31, 2016

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Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Grouchio posted:

You mates seriously need state media reforms around so the press can actually have differing opinions for once. Talk about poo poo luck with that Tony short stick.

The last government (Gillard, not Abbott) tried, and the papers responded by literally photoshopping the communications minister's face onto a picture of Mussolini and comparing him to the Nazis.

Yeeeeeah.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Bernardi shared an article from Rape Advocate Roosh V. Given the whole thing with Roosh recently put his name all over the place here, it is mathematically impossible for Corey to not know exactly who this guy is, and probably follows him.

Let's be honest here. Are any of us surprised by this at all?

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:

What events of last week is bernardi talking about?

Since it's Bernardi and Roosh, there's equal chances of it being about either women or LGBT people existing.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Waldo P Barnstormer posted:

If they are successfully elected, they will have three months to develop this software before sworn into parliament.

This is all anybody needs to know, really. They're running a technocratic platform centered around software that doesn't exist yet.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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ewe2 posted:

The DD's dont think Labor can get in either, but if the current distress of David Cameron is anything to go by, it might just be the best election to lose right now. Until the LNP/IPA's ideas are run into the ground so that even the most thick marginal seat voter can see they've got no clue, I do fail to see how they're going to learn otherwise. It's the death of the ideology that's needed, whoever tries to put the best face on it as PM.

A hung parliament helmed by the Liberals isn't just the most likely result going forward, it's also probably the best one. It'll put the biggest meter on the Liberal's policies possible, maybe even getting some non-poo poo policies through, but will still certifiably leave them holding the ball when the housing bubble bursts. I feel like there's probably not a whole lot they can call up in their defense that'll stick in that case.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Starshark posted:

I read LibertyCat posts so I don't see how Grundle can be any worse.

At least LibertyCat stops at about three sentences, and you can understand them.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Someone remind me, do we post Grundle as a good columnist, or a poo poo one to bitch about?

I mean I know which one I think he is, but I need to make sure we're all on the same page.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Tokamak posted:

If the alternative is burning coal, then rooftop solar isn't a bad alternative. At least the components and by products aren't being directly pumped into the atmosphere. It's not perfect but is something that can be improved on if there was a concerted effort by the government.

You might be surprised to find how much power is being generated by rooftop solar. Most of the growth in renewables is due to it. If we follow the historical growth, we wouldn't be too far off from roofing everything anyway. I don't have the numbers on me and I'm on my phone, but you can find the figures on the Australian energy market regulators site.

Yeah, basically as I understand it those are only issues that exist if you don't consider the alternatives and the greater picture.

So thankyou, Stoca Zola, for coming to us from a week in the future to tell us what we're gonna hear from the L-parties in the leadup to the election.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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My favorite part of the comparison picture isn't the pool. It's their neighbor, who seems to have lost the flags and ONLY the flags.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Sorry that happened to you, Synth, you're pretty great people in my book.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Ora Tzo posted:

If only that meant they would up their stunts.

Anidav posted:

Howard had a lot to make fun of. The leaders post howard lack material and security is stepped up way too much for the formula to be funny in their stunts.

They're also too identifiable to be able to do much with their stunts. They were good in the Howard era not just because Howard and his time gave them a lot to play with, but also because they were still targets small enough that they didn't have their faces plastered on blacklists. They were able to fly under the radar enough to make a spectacle right in the face of someone important.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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hooman posted:

I honestly didn't think my posting was that controversial. It's not like I was talking about refugees or racists, which is what usually motivates someone to change my avatar.

Someone gave me a red title for having bad opinions back in February, and I still don't know which opinions they were.

Probably Fallout-based. I was pretty angry about Fallout for a while.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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freebooter posted:

Did my first volunteering doorknocking for the Greens today and it was way less daunting then I thought it would be. Quite interesting actually. I encourage everyone to get involved in that sort of thing if they aren't already.

I was out this afternoon too! It was honestly pretty good, you expect things to be way worse than they turn out to be. I actually found voter phone banking to be way harder, people tend to be kinder to someone who's turning up to their doorstep.

Can I ask where some of you are doing these? I'm in the Melbourne Ports area, which is actually pretty welcome since while it's a Labor seat, its sitting member is not popular outside of the Jewish areas. ...which are where we'll be doorknocking tomorrow, yaaaaay.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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SynthOrange posted:

what is aussie culture exactly

Beer, footy, AC/DC and a confusing emotional relationship with the English.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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BBJoey posted:

I still have yet to see literally any evidence that this is true

The Greens run open ticket, just... not for that reason.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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ewe2 posted:

I'm wondering when we'll start getting those mailbox stuffers from the ALP and the Libs, maybe this week if the Greens have already started.

I already got a flyer from Danby. As well as an earlier one vilifying Turnbull, I guess back before Danby decided that the left was his real enemy.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Lid posted:

Ummmm... change places?

EXCLUSIVE

Labor will preference the Greens ahead of the Liberals across the country and is considering a deal with Nick Xenophon, which could see the Independent Senator pick up three Liberal seats in South Australia and possibly even Cabinet Minister Christopher Pyne's seat of Sturt.

Preferences are the most painful part of the whole election. It's a whole fuckton of rigamarole and contradictory hearsay and it's poo poo.

We'll see what happens with it, but Michael Danby, Labor's currently-sitting member for Melbourne Ports said at a conference on Thursday he'll be preferencing the Liberals over the Greens in his seat. It's questionable if the party will allow him to do that, he might be printing his own HTVs to go against Labor's choices, which would risk disendorsement for him. But there's a lot of time between now and the election for either Labor to shaft the Greens on that or for Danby to back off, so right now it's a bunch of stress for nothing.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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I dunno, this is like getting the news that your sick family dog has to be put down. It's sad, yeah, but it's also sort of a relief that it's finally happened.

It's done, it's over, and we can move on. Maybe we can get a new NBN later, when we're ready for it, but now we're free to just keep going and focus on other things.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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More than anything else, the mention of Airtasker there made me twitch.

That loving site murdered any hope of decent office work for me in Adelaide by farming all the entry-level stuff out to the lowest bidder. So I guess I should thank it, because now I live in a city that isn't dying.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Don Dongington posted:

It'll be interesting to see if the ALP just let this go (likely) or if they actually make an effort to censure him.

The Greens have known this was coming since he announced it (in Sydney) on Thursday, but it's good to finally see it get a bit of traction.

This will... impact things, significantly. Chances are pretty high the seat will change hands, because Danby is unpopular in all but a small section of the electorate, but this choice could possibly give it to the Liberals who are even less popular.

EDIT: And that is of course ignoring any possible repercussions that could come his way from Labor. My guess is he'd be disendorsed as a candidate if he loses his seat, especially if this means he loses his seat to the Liberals.

Cleretic fucked around with this message at 08:30 on Jun 16, 2016

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Anidav posted:

Can i just say how adorably dopey Bill Shorten's dogs look:



Bill's got pretty top-notch taste in dogs.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Sparticle posted:

Their entire platform is basically "Stop the Greens" which is what the Outdoor Recreation Party called themselves last election. Do the Greens even have policies meant to further strengthen gun control?

No, but they might have objections to what you're shooting, depending.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Yeah, that kind of breaking point needs an igniting spark that we just do not have. And if I'm honest, I don't think we're capable of having one right now; both major parties are playing pretty conservatively (by both definitions), and even if they did want to do something big and terrible there's no subject to capitalize on. Sure, if either major party actually did something big on asylum seekers we'd probably see it, but they won't. Gay marriage is basically a non-issue that nobody's done anything about here, even the right-wingers have seen a housing crash coming to the point they're trying to stave it off, a lot of bigger events in the English-speaking world just don't happen to us...

We're set to blow, but we have no fuses to light.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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I think it's hard to say anything for sure given the new senate voting changes. It does reduce the chance of total unknown quantities like Leyonhelm and Muir getting in, and those people tend to be more often right-wing than left, but it might just mean that more known shitheads will get in, like Family First.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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And for Choc's information and to the best of my knowledge, the reason tradies are so commonly gone to as a 'trustworthy average joe' figure in Australia generally seems to be down to Howard. I'm going off memory of somebody else's explanation, but Howard started that whole 'Aussie Battler' image and character as sort of a figure to reinvent the LNP's voting base around, and tradies definitely embody the more urban manifestation of it. An honest, working-class blokey bloke (because we're Australia and we cannot as a nation fathom an inspiring everyday figure that doesn't belong in a Victoria Bitter ad) just trying to live life and provide for his family.

Now that's gotten thrown into weird places over time, because if the archetypal Aussie Battler ever existed outside of Paul Hogan and Shane Jacobson characters, the LNP have sure as gently caress never actually met them. So their idea of this character has gone through a weird game of telephone, where this simple yet relatable image of the average voter has become bloated and confused because it's only ever been updated by what the LNP either want to be true about them, or think is true about them.

So the end result is you've got this clearly inaccurate depiction of the Aussie Battler that's almost a caricature, spruiking policies that both wouldn't benefit that theoretical voter and wouldn't engage them in the first place. They aren't just going 'look, we're just like you' in poor attempts to relate to the voter base, the figure they're pandering to probably doesn't actually exist in the first place.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Mattjpwns posted:

Signed up for four hours of H2V'ing with the Greens on election day. Looking forward to being sneered at by boomers. :toot:

Whether that happens will really depend on where you are, both electorate and occasionally booth-wise. I handed them out in the last state election in a safe Labor seat in Adelaide, and that was all pretty kind to me; all the hatred was being directed at the Liberal candidate and voters, I didn't actually get any blowback whatsoever.

This time I'm doing it in Melbourne Ports, and with the exception of the Caulfield area I'd be more concerned about the Labor volunteers than the Labor voters (in the Caulfield area I'd be worried about both, I do not envy people down that neck of the woods). Although that has led to me volunteering for the most hilariously 'oh my god this actually exists' role in an election campaign: staking out our election day paraphenalia on the night before to make sure nobody fucks with it.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Jumpingmanjim posted:

Does the Jewish community really hate the greens?

THAT Jewish community does. It's the foundation of the currently-sitting member's support base, and basically the only part of the electorate that likes him. He's been doing his best to paint the Greens as anti-Israel and anti-Semitic just to galvanize that section against us, and that part of the electorate's been by far the most difficult and painful to actually deal with in any way.

How to deal with meeting people that think we're anti-Semitic is literally the only specific advice and instruction on a single detail I have been given during Greens volunteering. That's how difficult that part is.

Cleretic fucked around with this message at 12:08 on Jun 20, 2016

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Solemn Sloth posted:

to a lot of that particular community anything short of driving Palestine back into the sea is anti-Israel. A lot of hardcore zionist support in the south east.

The most painful part of this whole campaign has been sitting with our candidate at a pub and listening to her talk about having to deal with this. She's a fantastic person, and doing her absolute best to deal with everything that's coming her way (the fact we even tried to doorknock in Caulfield is exceptional), and what she's getting from just this small subset of the electorate, that's drat near monopolizing her efforts to reach out to the population as a whole, is heartbreaking.

The Greens' estimates are that if we don't win Melbourne Ports in this election, we'll definitely win it next one. But I really hope it doesn't come to that, because god damnit, this lot doesn't deserve to get their way if this is what it is and how they do it.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Au Revoir Shosanna posted:

Theoretically, wouldn't direct democracy solve problems like this?


Your average voter is more progressive than you'd think, they just vote Liberal because they are "better for the econony."

Theoretically yes, and it would mean we have less issues like gay marriage where the population supports it but it still hasn't happened, but it would ultimately fall victim to the same thing: people voting against their best interests because there are professional bullshitters telling them to.

And of course, direct democracy doesn't mean a whole lot unless it's a complete buy-in. A direct democracy party ain't gonna do poo poo.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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I could only read 'tone argument'. Lot of words to say that, though.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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gay picnic defence posted:

The BBC just called it for Leave so I guess we have a GFC 2.0 on the way.

Can someone quickly explain this to me? I know next to nothing about the economy, but I thought we were pretty isolated from the UK's.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Thanks for the clarification, all. So what I'm getting is that we're all fuckboned and it's Nigel Farage's fault.

Any chance of a silver lining, or something to soften the blow? Individual countries in the U.K. could vote to rejoin (and I think at least Scotland will) which could help a bit, at least. Would a responsive and generally-sane EU be a way to stop the oncoming economic hell?

Sure would be nice to be an adult in good economic times. That sounds like it'd be fun.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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The worst possible reminder that your vote matters.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Recoome posted:

yess i eagerly await how this will embolden the ultranationalist movement here.

this is great news for freedom and diversity

Yeah, this'll spur the right wing of the Liberals on hard. But they've NEVER been a problem for ANYONE.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Thanks for posting this. UK politics has always been a really hard thing to grasp for me, because despite having a very similar system to ours it just didn't make a whole lot of sense to me, I could never even work out which parties were left or right (well, except UKIP).

Now I know that it's not really my fault, it's that UK politics has basically as much context for me to glean from as Saturnian politics.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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ZealousQ posted:

So is everyone putting their money where our collective mouths are and signed up to give out HTVs for our respective organisations on Saturday?

I've been doing doorknocking and phonebanking one day each, every week, all month. HTVs will be the last leg.

I'm so tired...

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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It doesn't sound that much, but I'm someone who struggles to go out and talk to people at all. Doorknocking and phonebanking is hard and takes a lot out of me!

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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kirbysuperstar posted:

Sounds like a good way to acclimatize yourself to being a little more outgoing, then. Good on you.

That's part of why I'm doing it! Also to actually help the Greens, and learn the area I moved to earlier this year.

Also to practice being 'out' about being trans to people before I start telling people like family. It's great, nobody in the Greens gives a gently caress because we've got more important things to focus on!

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Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


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Birdstrike posted:

this does absolutely not represent my experience doorknocking this election

I think it depends on where you doorknock.

I've been volunteering around Melbourne Ports, and like eighty percent of the electorate is super friendly to us. There's a fair few reasons for that, and they'll vary wherever you go, but generally it falls under the umbrella of dissatisfaction with the L-parties. There's in particular a lot of distaste for our local member, and since he's Labor the Greens become a natural second choice for a lot of people, especially when they come knocking on their doors personally to talk about what's of value to them. When most of the electorate hasn't been listened to by their sitting member, of course most of the electorate's going to be friendly to the people specifically talking to them about that.

The main exception is Caulfield, which I've talked about before.

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