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 Wowee! So much going on this past month, you’d think the US was a bunch of bigoted yokels who thought that an orange-faced troll was suited to be president. Oh wait… We do! But don’t worry, Hillary will be president… If America doesn’t wake up and realize that populist demagoguery is its true future, anyway. And we haven’t even gotten to budget season! Be afraid! Or not! Whatever you choose, just remember that, even as America slowly circles the shitter, you’re always welcome here in USPOL June 2016!   114th Congress Bingo Card Congress has been a bit more active this month. If by active you mean holding meaningless hearings and issuing their usual pie-in-the-sky plans for what Obama should be signing into law over the rest of the year. That counts as activity, right?
 Other News Now that Clinton has pretty much sewn up the nomination (or will in a week), I’ve decided to retire the Clinton Corner, so we’re just left with the other news…
Talk to other goons (why would you want to do that?) Remember that we have an IRC channel at synirc in #poligoon for livesteaming stuff. Goon Recommendations Documentaries
Talks Long pieces
Books
Twitter feeds
Related threads "US Politics" is an incredibly broad topic, as A) the country is freaking huge and B) given our role in international events pretty much everything impacts us. So there are other subthreads 2016 Presidential Primary 2016 US Senate Elections SCOTUS thread Right Wing Media There are also regional subthreads that are usually pretty slow, but sometimes cross-pollinate with this thread when something important is happening. Pacific Northwest Illinois Texas California Lifted the rest of the above from FriedChicken. As usual, post suggestions for adding to the above and I'll edit them in if I see them. And remember folks, drink chat goes in D&D chat thread. Drink responsibly. Your liver will thank you. 
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Jun 1, 2016 08:00
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Hail Satan
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Jun 1, 2016 08:02
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SECOND
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Jun 1, 2016 08:10
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Epic High Five posted:SECOND What up Ted?
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Jun 1, 2016 08:12
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So, will this be the month we know when things are absolutely hosed? Australian, btw. I don't follow American news so we might have that answer already.
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Jun 1, 2016 08:15
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ASIC v Danny Bro posted:So, will this be the month we know when things are absolutely hosed? Trump won't be president come November if that's what you're worried about....
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Jun 1, 2016 08:18
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stone cold posted:Trump won't be president come November if that's what you're worried about.... Yeah, gotta wait for January.
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Jun 1, 2016 08:21
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I can safely say that the toxx threads this year will (hopefully) be as hysterical as the ones from 2012.
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Jun 1, 2016 08:24
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USPOL, having once already ignored polls showing Trump in a strong position, doubles down on this analytical strategy.
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Jun 1, 2016 08:25
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The end is never the end
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Jun 1, 2016 08:26
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TheOneOutside posted:I can safely say that the toxx threads this year will (hopefully) be as hysterical as the ones from 2012. Trump one funny? I don't bother clicking on it since it's full of losers like Mitt Romney. What's funny is how defensive he got when it came to SUPPORT ARE TROOPS.
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Jun 1, 2016 08:39
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I just want this god drat election to be over. 
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Jun 1, 2016 08:41
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Next Tuesday, Bernie calls it quits after a moderate loss in California. Everyone fidgeting about him going third party and spoiling the election for Clinton quietly pack up their rhetoric and move on to other bad narratives.
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Jun 1, 2016 08:42
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faxlore posted:I just want this god drat election to be over. The worst part is, technically, this election hasn't even begun yet. 
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Jun 1, 2016 09:47
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SSNeoman posted:The end is never the end faxlore posted:I just want this god drat election to be over. Ratoslov posted:The worst part is, technically, this election hasn't even begun yet. Oh goodness, just look at the time: 
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Jun 1, 2016 11:45
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It was cute hearing Canadians moan about how long their election cycle was dragging on. What was that, like 7 weeks? The only consolation will be seeing Trump have a slow motion nervous breakdown from being needled by 30 people at once for 6 months
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Jun 1, 2016 11:48
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Kilroy posted:USPOL, having once already ignored polls showing Trump in a strong position, doubles down on this analytical strategy. The red states are going to be soooooo red this year. The crop will be glorious.
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Jun 1, 2016 11:54
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Kilroy posted:USPOL, having once already ignored polls showing Trump in a strong position, doubles down on this analytical strategy. I honestly thought Trump didn't have a chance. Until I realized that over the last 9 presidential elections, every time the Democrats have said "nobody's gonna vote for the Republican, he's stupid", the Republican won.
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Jun 1, 2016 11:55
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Sarah Palin count? Cause everyone thought she was a complete buffoon. Then she lost just like Trump will.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:00
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boom boom boom posted:I honestly thought Trump didn't have a chance. Until I realized that over the last 9 presidential elections, every time the Democrats have said "nobody's gonna vote for the Republican, he's stupid", the Republican won. Not entirely true, McCain picked Palin as VP and was thus branded as an idiot who people wouldn't vote for Also Perot
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Jun 1, 2016 12:01
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boom boom boom posted:I honestly thought Trump didn't have a chance. Until I realized that over the last 9 presidential elections, every time the Democrats have said "nobody's gonna vote for the Republican, he's stupid", the Republican won.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:06
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http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-is-the-tail-risk-candidate-2016-5 lol
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Jun 1, 2016 12:07
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Inferior Third Season posted:Republicans have only won the popular vote for President in one out of the last six elections, and that one was in the midst of two new wars and was a 49%/51% popular vote split. Reagan and H.W. Bush were in a completely different political era, so I don't know if taking those elections into account makes much sense for analyzing this cycle. Statistically speaking, America has never elected a Republican president, so clearly Trump will lose.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:12
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boom boom boom posted:Statistically speaking, America has never elected a Republican president, so clearly Trump will lose. Gore made the mistake of distancing himself from Clinton. Kerry made the mistake of being an actual for reals war hero. So clearly you're full of poo poo and can't read.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:19
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DemeaninDemon posted:Gore made the mistake of distancing himself from Clinton. Kerry made the mistake of being an actual for reals war hero. So clearly you're full of poo poo and can't read. What are you even arguing? The default is Democrat victory, but sometimes something different happens and those cases don't count?
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Jun 1, 2016 12:22
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http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/31/state-poll-snapshot-clinton-336-trump-202-ev-meta-margin-4-2/#more-15796 feels good man
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Jun 1, 2016 12:23
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emdash posted:http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/31/state-poll-snapshot-clinton-336-trump-202-ev-meta-margin-4-2/#more-15796 Yes, but wait until you see Trump's brilliant electoral strategy: https://twitter.com/foxnews/status/736976526319587330
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Jun 1, 2016 12:29
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boom boom boom posted:What are you even arguing? The default is Democrat victory, but sometimes something different happens and those cases don't count? So, yes, for the Presidency, the default is a Democratic victory, but sometimes something different happens that gives the Republicans a chance to take it.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:31
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boom boom boom posted:What are you even arguing? The default is Democrat victory, but sometimes something different happens and those cases don't count? Based on the EV map going into the general, the path towards a Democratic (gently caress you can't even get that right) victory is much, much easier than a Republican one. The gop needs to clean house on the swing states while the Democratic party needs like 1-2 of them to secure victory. This simple bit has been explained multiple times since the dawn of uspol. It's not set in stone because nothing in the universe is. Unless it's actually a stone statue or something. However, I believe Trump will lose the general and lose badly in terms of EVs. That better? Can you read that?
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Jun 1, 2016 12:32
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^^Fucker.  Kilroy posted:USPOL, having once already ignored polls showing Trump in a strong position, doubles down on this analytical strategy. Pretty sure even his best state by state polls add up to a large EC loss for Trump at the moment.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:35
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Inferior Third Season posted:What are you even arguing? Democrats are five out of the last six elections in popular vote. Or, to put it another way, Democrats have won decisively in four out of the last six elections, and it was pretty close to a tie in the other two. Republicans won five out of the last nine presidential elections. Or seven out of the last twelve presidential elections. So clearly Republicans always win unless something different happens. The Green party always wins unless something different happens. They're on a pretty bad streak of something different happening, but still.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:37
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DemeaninDemon posted:Based on the EV map going into the general, the path towards a Democratic (gently caress you can't even get that right) victory is much, much easier than a Republican one. The gop needs to clean house on the swing states while the Democratic party needs like 1-2 of them to secure victory. Then just say that, not that Democratic victory is the default state of America.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:38
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Wanted to chime in that last month we talked about good political podcasts and Chapo Trap House came up. It is a good show and people should check it out. Fair warning though it is SA and ironic bully Twitter distilled to its purest form. It can get a little tiring though listening to them just bash on the same guy for an hour. That is the only complaint. Edit: not even 6 hours into the month and people are already arzying. Will be a good election.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:40
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DaveWoo posted:Yes, but wait until you see Trump's brilliant electoral strategy: I didn't know Trump was into that whole six californias thing.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:42
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boom boom boom posted:Then just say that, not that Democratic victory is the default state of America. It's easier calling you an idiot since the EV reasoning gets repeated a whole lot. If you're new here then gently caress you I hate you. I really don't I'm just tired and want to go home.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:43
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boom boom boom posted:Republicans won five out of the last nine presidential elections. Or seven out of the last twelve presidential elections. So clearly Republicans always win unless something different happens. If you'd like, I could explain in detail why I think that the election of Clinton was the first of the "modern political era", and thus should be considered much more relevant than the elections of Reagan and H.W. Bush that took place during the Cold War. But I don't think you actually are interested in that, and are more interested in just being contrarian.
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Jun 1, 2016 12:55
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emdash posted:http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/31/state-poll-snapshot-clinton-336-trump-202-ev-meta-margin-4-2/#more-15796 Oh god there's a tiny blip on the "Trump wins" side. 
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Jun 1, 2016 12:59
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El Disco posted:Oh god there's a tiny blip on the "Trump wins" side. yeah, and there will be more/bigger ones before this is over, most likely. but that's 16,384 possible outcomes, out of which he wins like five. the blog post suggests--if i'm reading it right--trump needs to shift the GE state polls 4.24% (4.24% directly from hillary to trump, not involving gary johnson, with a post-sanders bump coming to hillary at some point, seems very unlikely to me) to indicate a likely scenario where clinton doesn't get 270
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Jun 1, 2016 13:06
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emdash posted:yeah, and there will be more/bigger ones before this is over, most likely. but that's 16,384 possible outcomes, out of which he wins like five. the blog post suggests--if i'm reading it right--trump needs to shift the GE state polls 4.24% (4.24% directly from hillary to trump, not involving gary johnson, with a post-sanders bump coming to hillary at some point, seems very unlikely to me) to indicate a likely scenario where clinton doesn't get 270 but but but Can we please reintroduce the rule that if posters Arzy they have to post corresponding EV maps?
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Jun 1, 2016 13:12
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emdash posted:http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/31/state-poll-snapshot-clinton-336-trump-202-ev-meta-margin-4-2/#more-15796 Either I'm dumb or sleep-deprived, certainly both. How do I read this? What does the y-axis mean?
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Jun 1, 2016 13:38
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