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MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

European stock markets are starting to open in the next few hours which should be interesting but the real panic will undoubtedly be when the NYSE open again later today. :ohdear:

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MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

hooman posted:

So is this gonna be "GFC 2: This time it's Britain!"?

Not necessarily, the incoming reaction is just a manifestation of how no one knows what the gently caress is about to happen and as such, PANIC PANIC SELL SELL :supaburn:

I'm not very hopeful though.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Convergence posted:

This plus the US election nonsense it a gigantic warning alarm, if not a death knell, for the efficacy of direct or close-to-direct democracy in the age of viral disinformation via social media. poo poo is terrifying.

I keep looking back at this statement to see if I'm being hyperbolic and it really doesn't feel like it.

Indeed, this has made me very worried about the incoming array of national and presidential elections.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

spoon0042 posted:

Dude, were you watching Person of Interest?

We are being watched. :tinfoil:

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:

Somebody explain to me real quick why they are qutting if they got their way? Wasnt the vote camerons idea?

Yes, but Cameron didn't actually want to leave. It was a gambit to win the last election that he at the time calimed was to give the UK more leverage in negotiations with the EU.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

nerdrum posted:

Whats the chance of the Pound hitting parity with the dollar?

Many currencies seem to be buying dollars like crazy at the moment so it's not outside of the realm of possibility.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

FTSE 100 is on a downway ride to hell.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

vanbags posted:

The more I read about this the more confused I get. I was reading an article that Britain could still negotiate a deal with the EU in the same vein as Norway, to maintain unfettered access to the European markets, but it pointed out that Norway has to adopt 3/4 of the EU rules and legislation. Assuming Britain can't get a better deal than Norway, this seems like a lot of trouble to still end up in the same boat, only this time you're losing the ability to actually vote on EU laws. Is that not a worse deal? What does Norway get out of not being part of the EU that Britain could also enjoy?

Not much, and the brittish public would never accept it.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

ComradeCosmobot posted:

Weirdly, the Nordic countries seem fine...

Midsummer eve bitches, national holiday. The bloodbath won't start until Monday.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

MrNemo posted:

The EU didn't need the UK as much as the UK needs the EU but it still needs the UK. As much as I would loving love to set something like Schengen membership forced on the UK in exchange for trading it won't happen because it's not politically possible for any UK party to accept it. The EU will probably give the UK more or less the deal they had before without voting rights and and probably fewer exceptions than it had negotiated before.

More like no exceptions.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

botany posted:

This is coming up again and again and it's still dumb.

(a) The rest of the EU will make sure no other countries are incentivized to leave. This will be done politically, not economically.
(b) Economically the EU needs to stay afloat more than anything else. If they decided to punish the UK, that would depress the UK economy even further, which will be linked into the EU markets which will in turn damage everyone else. Not only is that bad for all EU nations, it doesn't even help convince countries to stay. The euro-sceptics will simply point to the damage caused and say, "see this is all falling apart, we need to get out while we can". The only way for the EU to convince member states to stay is by demonstrating how stable the loving system is, there is literally no incentive to punish the UK economically, your goony revenge fantasies notwithstanding.

Counterargument, Greece.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

It's just a matter of time until the EU in typical fashion finds a judicial way of circumventing the intent of the invocation part of article 50 to get the ball rolling.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

The Phlegmatist posted:

The EC can refuse to enter negotiations until Article 50 is formally triggered, at which point any referendum the UK gets to vote on is going to be a stunning re-enactment of the Greek OXI one -- Juncker laughs and plays the world's smallest violin while the UK stares on in terror.

Unlike with Greece the EU has no loaded gun put to the UK's head. Mostly because the UK already grabbed that gun last Friday and shot themselves in the head but details :v:

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Why is there no bugs bunny sawing off the UK gif yet?

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

MrMoo posted:

Is there a poll yet for the 18-24 age group to see if they understand the difference between the EU and Europe? (and add the 16-17 year olds who wanted a vote)

Who would ever vote stay if they thought it was Europe. Turning the UK into a giant boat that sails the seas is a great idea. Truly, the sun never sets on the empire. :colbert:

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

nimby posted:

So what I'm hearing is that immigrants will stop coming if one refuses to pay ones debt?

Win win situation!

Just burn everything, no immigrants will ever want to come ever again!

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Watching Financial and Insurance get dragged into a ditch and beaten into submission in the coming years sure will be something. :stare:

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

sean10mm posted:

Great for exports!

Provided you don't vote to leave your biggest export market, that is.

Well if it falls another 20 cent we might even be approaching to compensate for the increased costs of bare-minimum WTO trade. :suicide:

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Grouchio posted:

What's the status update on the brexit situation?

Everything is still hosed.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

I think media interest trailed off the moment everyone realized that this is happening whenever the hell May feels like it.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Ersatz posted:

Is it possible that she's just sitting on the issue until it's politcally palatable to back away?

If she waited for a couple of years, maybe. But as of right now, it's not happening anytime soon. The new UKIP leader is implicating violence if Brexit isn't enacted fully and the EU keeps sending signals that they're not allowing the UK to squirm their way out of this.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

The EU's optimal outcome is if the UK enters some kind of association agreement instead of being a member. That means the UK losing all of their exceptions and almost all of their political influence while still having to adhere to almost all the pillars of the EU. Essentially, the outcome that would see the UK lose all its current advantages for no gain.

Personally, I worry that any such outcome would incite and unprecedented wave of nationalism in the UK but who knows.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Another thing is that I wouldn't count on the stalemate lasting forever. After the successful creation of the Eurogroup and the subsequent Troika literally nothing in the treaties should be taken for granted. They have been worked around before and it's probably only a matter of time until they are so again. We're already kinda seeing it with the UK getting excluded from meetings and EU institutions pulling their assets out of the UK.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Read like literally every other post posted today. We know.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011


That's amazing. :allears:

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Ocrassus posted:

Man, I think the whole 'mainstream media is causing people to be racist fucks' thing has been firmly challenged this year. The vast majority of major networks in the US are pro-Clinton, yet the meme clearly is 'distrust the media' amongst Trump supporters.

The daily mail and the sun are not actively shaping public opinion beyond a superficial level, they are reflecting it. Regardless of whether the mail printed that garbage, those words would be in the minds and on the tongues of many people.

No. As all thing in opinion-making, it's a two-way streets. Newspapers reflect public opinion just as much as they help shape it.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Red Bones posted:

The US and the UK are very different countries too so it is a pretty huge false equivalency. The UK has a right wing media bias on the whole, we have an older and more homogenous population that are reading more of these newspapers, the issues the two countries have faced this year in regards to what is actually being voted for are very different, etc etc.

Not really? At the base level both Brexit and Trump represent telling the rest of the world to gently caress off.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

I think the last 2 years have proven abundantly that people will be surprisingly eager to opt for left when that choice actually exists. The UK referendum was virtually decided in the preceding election and in that election there was no left choice. There was just milquetoast right Miliband and at least sincere right Cameron. It baffles me that people can see organisations and people like Podemos, Syriza, Sanders and Corbyn arise simultaneously as the new-right and conclude that there's no room for the left.

Centre-left and centre-right are both dying.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Watch the Tories fracture harder than the Republican party if the Brexit is successfully impeded. To take a non anglo-saxon example, the Swedish moderates have been gradually tried to re-trace their position back their conservative roots and in the polls it's obvious that no one is having it. We're about to see the same in France with Sarkozy's impotent experiment in racing Le Pen to the bottom. It's not an issue of talent, the centre position whether right or left is neoliberalism and with that failing there's nowhere to go while staying within that framework.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

The relevant EU actors really could not be more clear on this, there won't be rollback. The UK may remain but only if they first pay the price in blood for the shocks they caused with the referendum.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

I don't think there's any chance that they'll fold without the UK at least losing their exemptions. If the UK attempts to go for not invoking article 50 then I think they'll find themselves kept in the current state of exclusion for perpetuity.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

feedmegin posted:

It's easy for a middle-of-the-road newspaper to chill out about lefties in other countries that don't affect them.

You'd think so and yet Swedish liberal papers write about Corbyn as if he was satan himself.

MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Nov 7, 2016

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

You can't imagine having a pint at the local pub with experts, why would you value their opinions.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

JFairfax posted:

Because our ancestors fought for hundreds of years to take the rule of law from individuals who made arbitrary decisions with no accountability.

No they fought for hundreds of years so that inherited wealth instead of genes would be in control of power.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

steinrokkan posted:

You do realize that what appears in supermarkets is just a vanishingly tiny portion of the total goods and services required to keep an economy running.

I don't even know why you try, nothing gets past that guy, we can't fool him.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Doctor_Fruitbat posted:

We are going to get taken to the loving cleaners. Jesus Christ, we are screwed.

I look forward to the UK becoming the 52th state.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Cerv posted:

Yea. This is all the dastardly Labour party's fault

Cooooooorbyn! :argh:

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Have to go back to an earlier save file.

Time to try renegade on that whole Magna Carta businesses.

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MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Dabir posted:

Why?


Seriously, if it was, hypothetically, enough to make a meaningful difference, why not let it crumble? Can't feed people with palaces.

You couldn't feed people with the biggest tourist attraction in the country? I mean I guess that is true in a literal sense but uuuuuuuuuh. :raise:

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