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Spangly A posted:The idea that there wouldn't be a line of countries and politicians absolutely happy to gently caress with the UK provided they get something out of it is absolutely laughable. What could they get out of it?
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Oct 2, 2016 15:53
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Spangly A posted:I don't disagree with any of this but the EU would have absolutely no qualms about interfering with another country. It interferes, continuously, in any EU government that attempts to elect against austerity. The idea that there wouldn't be a line of countries and politicians absolutely happy to gently caress with the UK provided they get something out of it is absolutely laughable. the powers the EU has there is well-established, namely that the governments that are "elected against austerity" need EU financial assistance more than they oppose austerity against the UK, well, people keep talking about passporting rights for a reason. but that's more for London, not Edinburgh.
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Oct 2, 2016 15:56
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Pissflaps posted:What could they get out of it? Catalonia.
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Oct 2, 2016 15:56
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ronya posted:the powers the EU has there is well-established, namely that the governments that are "elected against austerity" need EU financial assistance more than they oppose austerity Quite. Capital as the monopoly of force is wonderfully effective. I'm not arguing that it's at all likely for the EU to set up camp in Edinburgh for formal negotiations. I'm saying that diplomatically upsetting the UK will be rather low on the list of concerns, should Scotland find something interesting to offer. ronya posted:Catalonia. las malvinas Well on that I'd have no idea. It'd probably not be a reasonable list of demands, and unless they dam up to the faroes they've not got anything essential to contribute to the EU until oil recovers, but I'm not well-versed in Scottish natural resources.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:01
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Zohar posted:"we don't need to punch above our weight because our weight is substantial enough already". Theresa Kang over here.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:04
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So Jess Phillips has reneged on her threat to quit the party, but she still hates Corbyn and plans to campaign under a banner of 'vote for me personally, my party is rubbish and will lose'. Naturally her position of hating the Labour membership and leadership and campaigning on a personal manifesto is not in any way incompatible with being the Labour candidate. How dare anybody consider deselecting her and forcing her to stand as an independent.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:21
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Rakosi posted:They can put out feelers as much as they want to but the EU has no legal capacity to sit down at the table and discuss membership with non-independent states. It would be a violation of the UK, diplomatically and politically, for the EU to try to pry from it members like Scotland. It would be borderline hostile interference in the integrity of another country.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:21
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Spangly A posted:Quite. Capital as the monopoly of force is wonderfully effective... well - it isn't a monopoly, is it? Countries always have a host of options. They could borrow on their own credit - we don't live in Bretton Woods any more; international flows are not primarily mediated by state actors. Oddly enough, it turns out that EU or IMF lending are often the best terms they can get, and potential lenders all seem curiously skeptical. Come on, we only defaulted once... a capitalist conspiracy, I'm sure. Being elected means that people have to believe what you say. They could even simply refuse to borrow, as Malaysia did during the 1997 crisis. Defy Brussels! Wave a middle finger at the IMF! But whoops, Malaysia had a fiscal surplus in 1997. Do you know who doesn't have fiscal surpluses and - more importantly - regards not running a structural deficit to be akin to illegitimate tyranny? Or they could default again! Really stick it to all these dirty German bankers. Panic in Frankfurt, chaos in Zurich. Let the Germans bail out the Germans, and the French bail out the French. And then lend us money again, of course. What do you mean that they won't? The sins of the Troika are many, but much stems from being unwilling to govern Greece rather than being too willing to do so.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:21
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Gorn Myson posted:It'd be awesome if the EU just flat out ignored England and negotiated directly with Scotland. I mean what the gently caress is a modern day English government going to do? Run to the Telegraph and write aggressively worded diatribes against it? I don't think this is likely it just sounds like a Scottish Nationalist's wet dream.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:29
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Gorn Myson posted:It'd be awesome if the EU just flat out ignored England and negotiated directly with Scotland. I mean what the gently caress is a modern day English government going to do? Run to the Telegraph and write aggressively worded diatribes against it? Some countries would consider this fantasy scenario an act of aggression? There is international law and precedent which forbids interference in the integral makeup of countries. Of course this isn't fairly acknowledged for all countries, but the UK is not a middle eastern dictatorship run by a despot and no one, not even the EU, would get away with that kind of behaviour unscathed. The UK Government speaks for all citizens of the UK and it is fantasy/sour grapes for anyone to try tack a rhetorical "but..." on to the end of that statement.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:29
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Gorn Myson posted:It'd be awesome if the EU just flat out ignored England and negotiated directly with Scotland. I mean what the gently caress is a modern day English government going to do? Run to the Telegraph and write aggressively worded diatribes against it? Westminster probably can't do much, but let's be clear here, this is not the former Yugoslavia and the quality of disparate nationhoods has not been reinforced by genocidal militias and rape camps Scottish nationalism is just not very fervent for the median Scottish person and the threat of a substantive increase in taxes to cover the adjustment costs of an unfriendly secession, or the spectre of unemployment from economic disruption for a decade or so due to disputed control or applicable law over assets, would be sufficient to extinguish any hope of a 50%+1 majority at the ballot box
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Oct 2, 2016 16:31
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The EU are going to hire Big Sam to tap Scotland up.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:36
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I can't get enough of are Dan
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I feel that May will not have her Art 50 by March next year - I'm not certain but my gut feeling is 2:1 odds that it will have to be postponed due to departmental delays
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Oct 2, 2016 16:38
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Rakosi posted:It would be borderline hostile interference in the integrity of another country.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:42
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Rakosi posted:Some countries would consider this fantasy scenario an act of aggression? There is international law and precedent which forbids interference in the integral makeup of countries. Of course this isn't fairly acknowledged for all countries, but the UK is not a middle eastern dictatorship run by a despot and no one, not even the EU, would get away with that kind of behaviour unscathed.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:43
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ronya posted:I feel that May will not have her Art 50 by March next year - I'm not certain but my gut feeling is 2:1 odds that it will have to be postponed due to departmental delays I'm not entirely sure the plan isn't honestly to kick the can until the next election. I mean, christ, that's what everyone does.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:43
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ronya posted:I feel that May will not have her Art 50 by March next year - I'm not certain but my gut feeling is 2:1 odds that it will have to be postponed due to departmental delays Agreed. I think May is going to look for excuses to kick this further and further down the road - be it the legal challenge, or disputes over the role of the Scottish Parliament, etc. I don't think this is just 'hope' on my part - I think its actually the probable outcome. I also agree with Spangly - the EU (with the exception of a few fringe voices in the Parliament, and a couple in the Commission) is not going to encourage the active breakup of the UK - that would be economically disruptive and politically destabilising for the wider continent: the Council wants to minimise the fallout and disruption from Brexit (though without budging on principles like freedom of movement). That said, they will certainly allow junior ministers to engage in informal talks/lunch meetings (which will give the SNP something to crow about), and will not be too concerned about hurting British pride.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:47
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Gorn Myson posted:It'd be awesome if the EU just flat out ignored England and negotiated directly with Scotland. I mean what the gently caress is a modern day English government going to do? Run to the Telegraph and write aggressively worded diatribes against it? Why would the EU want to do this? This is something that simply wouldn't happen.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:51
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StoneOfShame posted:Why would the EU want to do this? This is something that simply wouldn't happen.
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Oct 2, 2016 16:55
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I am a little concerned by the possibility that nothing sufficiently plausible crops up for May to shift the blame towards, and so March arrives and the perm secs are screaming and May invokes 50 anyway and then nothing happens until the end of 2017 because continental elections, and then negotiations drag out until 2020 at minimum because those two-year estimates are the low end of things, and then a new election fails to obtain a mandate for any particular style of Brexit (if any). Again.
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Oct 2, 2016 17:10
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I think once 50 is invoked we are on the rails for a max 2 years, it can't be extended past that without unanimous approval.
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Oct 2, 2016 17:16
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CoolCab posted:I think once 50 is invoked we are on the rails for a max 2 years, it can't be extended past that without unanimous approval. Yes - for that reason a lot of the back-of-the-envelope projections of how long it actually takes to spin up a human bureaucracy of hundreds of thousands of people towards grappling with EU treaties were conveniently set at two years those are the low end of estimates, however - you're supposed to have your goals and factfinding in order and then have two years of hammering out disagreements, not two years of figuring out what you even actually want whilst juncker drums his fingers on the table. the goal-formation and factfinding would probably take more than two years.
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Oct 2, 2016 17:26
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ronya posted:those are the low end of estimates, however - you're supposed to have your goals and factfinding in order and then have two years of hammering out disagreements, not two years of figuring out what you even actually want whilst juncker drums his fingers on the table. the goal-formation and factfinding would probably take more than two years. more Remoaner lies talking down are grate nation
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Oct 2, 2016 17:54
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Pissflaps posted:Depressingly plausible: It would sure be a shame if this level of hubris ended up biting them on the rear end
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Oct 2, 2016 17:54
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baka kaba posted:more Remoaner lies talking down are grate nation  You lost just get over it
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Oct 2, 2016 17:58
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I see people have been reading BBC top-rated comments again. I always preferred "Remainiac", personally.
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Oct 2, 2016 18:02
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jabby posted:So Jess Phillips has reneged on her threat to quit the party, but she still hates Corbyn and plans to campaign under a banner of 'vote for me personally, my party is rubbish and will lose'. So if she wins she can declare it a mandate independent of the Labour Party, despite using Labour Party money, local Labour Party footsoldiers, the Labour Party name recognition and taking up the Labour Party electoral slot. That arrangement would obviously put her in a great position personally but it's just so ridiculous. It makes her look a bit thick honestly.
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Oct 2, 2016 18:24
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Will labour be able to cope with an MP that intends to consistently vote in defiance of the party leadership?
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Oct 2, 2016 18:34
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Dunno, let's deselect 'em so we don't have to find out.
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Oct 2, 2016 18:36
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hard brexit
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Oct 2, 2016 18:56
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Pissflaps posted:Will labour be able to cope with an MP that intends to consistently vote in defiance of the party leadership? That very obviously depends what they're defying the leadership on doesn't it. If the MP is better representing the majority view of the party membership and the stated goals of the party than the leadership is then it's grand.
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Oct 2, 2016 19:00
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Looke posted:hard brexit Phwoar.
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Oct 2, 2016 19:01
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OwlFancier posted:Dunno, let's deselect 'em so we don't have to find out. Trap sprung
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Oct 2, 2016 19:08
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Looke posted:hard brexit Are the Chuckles ill?
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Oct 2, 2016 19:13
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Alchenar posted:Trap sprung No see I get what he's trying to insinuate but the key difference is that currently the leadership is good whereas before the leadership was bad so now it's bad to oppose it.
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Oct 2, 2016 19:14
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Vitamin P posted:That very obviously depends what they're defying the leadership on doesn't it. If the MP is better representing the majority view of the party membership and the stated goals of the party than the leadership is then it's grand. I'd go even further. So long as the MP represents the majority view of their constituency membership, it's fine. So if the people of Birmingham Labour Party want to keep Jess Phillips then so be it. If however they decide she is no longer serving them then obviously they'd be well within their right to look into replacing her as their candidate in 2020.
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Oct 2, 2016 19:15
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JFairfax posted:Are the Chuckles ill? they're supposed to be frankencucks
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Oct 2, 2016 19:21
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Looke posted:hard brexit *in 5 months time* oh... err... this has never happened to me before I swear...
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Oct 2, 2016 19:22
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forkboy84 posted:I'd go even further. So long as the MP represents the majority view of their constituency membership, it's fine. So if the people of Birmingham Labour Party want to keep Jess Phillips then so be it. If however they decide she is no longer serving them then obviously they'd be well within their right to look into replacing her as their candidate in 2020. An interesting perspective on the role and purpose of a member of parliament.
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Oct 2, 2016 20:12
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Pesmerga posted:Theresa May isn't a very good interviewee - watching her on Marr, she always sounds incredibly nervous. Well she knows she's going to be the one that destroys the UK. She's been warned by the president of the United States, multiple EU leaders and multiple domestic and foreign corporations that Brexit is going to be disastrous. She knows it, we know it. Apparently not doing it is really not an option. Roll on March and the start of the Brexitolypse. What is still unknown is how fast the cracks will start to show. Slow enough and they might be able to get away with it and leave it to whoever is in power in 10 years to deal with.
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Oct 2, 2016 20:20
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