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Lord Hydronium posted:If we give Nevada to Hillary, what would be the next best bet for Trump in this map? Colorado? The early voting there isn't looking peachy for Donald. Pennsylvania isn't far ahead, but seems really stable. Maybe Michigan? It only has a 4 point lead. Mister prime Arzy gives it 76%.
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Nov 5, 2016 15:44
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canepazzo posted:He just announced another stop, in MN. Cointoss if he's bullshitting or not. kellyanne says theyre going fwiw https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/794911290284195840
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Nov 5, 2016 15:46
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DaveWoo posted:Trump giving a speech right now: I dumbed down for my audience to double my dollars They criticized me for it, yet they all yell "holla" If skills sold, truth be told, I'd probably be Lyrically Talib Kweli Truthfully I wanna rhyme like Common Sense But I did 5 mil - I ain't been rhyming like Common since Clearly Trump has never used language like that because he isn't capable of speaking above a 4th grade level
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Nov 5, 2016 15:50
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It's not going to do anything, because Trump's supporters already have sussed that he wasn't faithful in his marriages and don't care, but Trump had a long-term affair with a Playboy model a year into his third marriage, and the Trump-friendly National Enquirer bought the story and sat on it.
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Nov 5, 2016 15:53
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Going to states with a 5+ lean against you is a reasonable strategy if you're trying for a moonshot based the potential for systemic polling errors in traditionally stable states. The alternative is that it's a new crowd and Trump TV isn't going to sell itself. The real answer is probably none of the above, and it's all based on an internal poll of Trump telling himself he's awesome enough to sway the entire Midwest by showing up.
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Nov 5, 2016 15:55
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99 CENTS AMIGO posted:It's not going to do anything, because Trump's supporters already have sussed that he wasn't faithful in his marriages and don't care, but Trump had a long-term affair with a Playboy model a year into his third marriage, and the Trump-friendly National Enquirer bought the story and sat on it. I actually forgot how many times Trump has been married now NBC is sitting on Apprentice footage and is refusing to release it IIRC.
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Nov 5, 2016 15:57
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Pastrymancy posted:I actually forgot how many times Trump has been married now They claim they don't have the ability to.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:00
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The best numbers autistic out there thinks NV is more than likely going Hillary. https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/794757473378902016
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Nov 5, 2016 16:01
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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794916895052939264
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Nov 5, 2016 16:03
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canepazzo posted:He just announced another stop, in MN. Cointoss if he's bullshitting or not. Minnesota's probably not going for Trump, but it has been underpolled this election, so I can see Trump's angle here: it's a big question mark, and a very alluring prize provided he can turn it red. I grew up in Minnesota and lived there for many years. I can tell you it's trending to the right, though probably not at the pace Wisconsin is. But it's probably a waste of time for him. He'd be better off making another stop in Wisconsin. If Minnesota goes for the Republicans, it's almost a sure bet Wisconsin already has.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:05
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Mr Hootington posted:The best numbers autistic out there thinks NV is more than likely going Hillary. Florida still is, kinda. Whoever wins Florida will win the election. (assuming it's Hillary)
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Nov 5, 2016 16:06
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Filthy Hans posted:FL came within a hair's breadth in 2012 and failed because of some conservative doctors' fear mongering bullshit, but I think you're right and it won't be that close this time
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Nov 5, 2016 16:10
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Filthy Hans posted:FL came within a hair's breadth in 2012 and failed because of some conservative doctors' fear mongering bullshit, but I think you're right and it won't be that close this time I just saw this posted this morning. Dunno how reputable UNF Public Opinion Research Lab is, but they say 73% support for Amendment 2 from their polling. We had a majority vote in favor of medical in 2014 with 58%, but thanks to JEB! our Amendments have to hit 60% to pass. JEB!'s 2006 amendment to make any further amendment require 60% to pass itself passed with 58% support.  e: beaten
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Nov 5, 2016 16:19
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Wisconsin Trump rally is cancelled.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:19
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smash mouth eat this egg If Clinton gets NV then there's really no way Trump wins. He'd have to take a blue wall state, and none of those even look possible at this stage. AND he'd have to win both FL and NC.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:27
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DaveWoo posted:You're right about that being an insanely busy schedule - Trump's going to be a wreck at the end of all that. That's such a good point I hadn't even considered. Trump has no former Republican Presidents, all of his primary rivals hate his guts and are only working with him reluctantly except Chris Christie, who can't appear in public because of Bridgegate. Swing state congresscreatures are trying to walk a tight rope of not appearing too close to him. He has no surrogates. What a mess.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:35
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Teddybear posted:I think the last polls I saw in Massachusetts had it up around 55ish. Mass has been working to test the waters for a few years now. In 2008 there was a question to decriminalize it, and then in 2012 there was a question to make it legal for medical purposes and both passed by a pretty safe margin. I feel like they were building up to this moment and I think it'll pass.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:41
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Periodiko posted:That's such a good point I hadn't even considered. Trump has no former Republican Presidents, all of his primary rivals hate his guts and are only working with him reluctantly except Chris Christie, who can't appear in public because of Bridgegate. Swing state congresscreatures are trying to walk a tight rope of not appearing too close to him. He has no surrogates. What a mess. wasn't there talk of getting his wife and kids to fill that role? i don't think anything came of that, did it?
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Nov 5, 2016 16:41
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Periodiko posted:That's such a good point I hadn't even considered. Trump has no former Republican Presidents, all of his primary rivals hate his guts and are only working with him reluctantly except Chris Christie, who can't appear in public because of Bridgegate. Swing state congresscreatures are trying to walk a tight rope of not appearing too close to him. He has no surrogates. What a mess. He has Rudy. And his wife, I guess. Pence is still campaigning, right?
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Nov 5, 2016 16:43
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It's incredibly weird to only see Trump stumping for himself. Absolutely no one except for lunatics like Rudy Giuliani wants anything to do with him.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:44
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Lord Hydronium posted:If we give Nevada to Hillary, what would be the next best bet for Trump in this map? Colorado?
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Nov 5, 2016 16:46
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canepazzo posted:Wisconsin Trump rally is cancelled. Even better: Ryan had just announced he would be campaigning with him in WI.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:50
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cant cook creole bream posted:He has Rudy. And his wife, I guess. Pence is still campaigning, right? I've seen live streams of Rudy doing warm up for a Trump rally it is... not good. 
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Nov 5, 2016 16:51
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Mr Hootington posted:The best numbers autistic out there thinks NV is more than likely going Hillary. Ralston is the #1 expert on NV early voting and he's declared Trump DOA in Nevada. Without Nevada his paths are very narrow, and might include moonshot-poo poo like Minnesota. It was posted on the last page: https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794905326642302976
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Nov 5, 2016 16:51
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Antti posted:Ralston is the #1 expert on NV early voting and he's declared Trump DOA in Nevada. Without Nevada his paths are very narrow, and might include moonshot-poo poo like Minnesota. It was posted on the last page: Ah, you see, you say that but: https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/794931336138072064 and here's why he's doing a rally in IA: https://twitter.com/samsteinhp/status/794931619849261056 Supposedly 1 more IA and one OH poll coming out today.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:57
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Chelb posted:https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794737005091401728 yep. trumps lasting legacy will be mobilizing the hispanic vote, and mobilizing them against the GOP
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Nov 5, 2016 17:00
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BiggerBoat posted:Beaten but yeah. The one in Florida dealing with solar energy that was written by the utility companies. It's so dishonestly worded that it sounds like a vote FOR solar energy. Yeah, Georgia has one of those. Amendment 1, titled "Provides greater flexibility and state accountability to fix failing schools through increasing community involvement" is about creating a special school district just for failing schools which is supervised by the state. Nothing on the ballot mentions that it will grant the state the power to ignore the local school board, and to turn schools into charters with private management.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:02
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Just got off the phone with my local campaign office. Volunteered to knock on doors on Monday and election day. No chance of affecting the presidential election, but might help tip the balance of power in the Senate.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:04
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BiggerBoat posted:Beaten but yeah. The one in Florida dealing with solar energy that was written by the utility companies. It's so dishonestly worded that it sounds like a vote FOR solar energy. It's also being challenged in court and might get struck no matter the result.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:06
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Could anyone repost the picture someone posted which summarized HRC's chances of winning based on different polling aggregators? It's a bit old at this point, so I'd like to revisit the sites mentioned to see how things have changed.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:09
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military cervix posted:Could anyone repost the picture someone posted which summarized HRC's chances of winning based on different polling aggregators? It's a bit old at this point, so I'd like to revisit the sites mentioned to see how things have changed. I think the one you're thinking fo comes from the New York Times. Check out their Upshot page.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:11
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Luigi Thirty posted:It's also being challenged in court and might get struck no matter the result. It's not going to; the Florida SC said 'nope' to getting it tossed (reminder these are the same chucklefucks who let it in in the first place)
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Nov 5, 2016 17:11
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military cervix posted:Could anyone repost the picture someone posted which summarized HRC's chances of winning based on different polling aggregators? It's a bit old at this point, so I'd like to revisit the sites mentioned to see how things have changed. This?  From http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html which has a lot of good charts.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:12
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The Onion posted:WASHINGTON—Growing increasingly panicked while struggling with the safety devices, the nation’s still-undecided voters reportedly shouted for help Friday when they couldn’t get their seatbelts off. “Help me—it’s stuck,” said Westerville, OH resident Daniel Roark, who has yet to determine which presidential candidate he will be voting for after a year and a half of campaigning, primaries, conventions, attack ads, and three nationally televised debates, adding that the lap and shoulder restraint “is really, really tight” and “hurts [his] stomach.” “Ow, ow, ow. I can’t get this part out of the other thing. I’m pulling on it a lot, but it’s not working. It’s squishing me.” At press time, 30 percent of the undecided voters had cut off their oxygen supply after inadvertently tangling their seatbelt around their neck.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:13
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Periodiko posted:I've seen live streams of Rudy doing warm up for a Trump rally it is... not good. The most horrifying of blowjob faces.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:14
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I got a call yesterday to go out and vote from... the Republicans? Well I mean, ok, if that's what you want. +1 for HRC and Ducksworth.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:15
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This election has been so fun to watch. I remember back in 2012, when Romney was so confident and making his last-minute stumps in places like Pennsylvania and some (including me, though not vocally) were Arzying about it. Does he know something we don't? Trump throws a rally in Minnesota and I just laugh. Here I'm pretty confident that, no, Trump does not have some insider data or masterplan I just don't get.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:16
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I understand the significance of Clark County in NV, but isn't it a fact that Republicans tend to wait until election day to vote? So isn't having a lead in early voters kind of expected for Hillary? I'm just trying to understand the correlation of how her lead means she is going to win the state.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:17
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ZeeToo posted:This election has been so fun to watch. I remember back in 2012, when Romney was so confident and making his last-minute stumps in places like Pennsylvania and some (including me, though not vocally) were Arzying about it. Does he know something we don't?
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Nov 5, 2016 17:18
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TheGreatGnocchi posted:I understand the significance of Clark County in NV, but isn't it a fact that Republicans tend to wait until election day to vote? So isn't having a lead in early voters kind of expected for Hillary? I'm just trying to understand the correlation of how her lead means she is going to win the state. The lead, statewide, is bigger than the lead Obama had after early voting closed. Dems even lead in Washoe, which usually leans Republican after early voting.
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Nov 5, 2016 17:19
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