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uXs posted:Are those early voting ballots being counted (and results published) already, or are they just exit polls? Early voting reports are turnout by party (Dem, Rep, Other) in Nevada. No results published until after polls close on Tuesday.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:17
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How is everyone showing NV up by insane amounts, and Nate still hasn't updated? Because they're actual voting numbers and not polls? Seems silly.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:17
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Iron Lung posted:How is everyone showing NV up by insane amounts, and Nate still hasn't updated? Because they're actual voting numbers and not polls? Seems silly. Nate does not factor early voting estimates into his models, nor do the other aggregators.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:21
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Iron Lung posted:How is everyone showing NV up by insane amounts, and Nate still hasn't updated? Because they're actual voting numbers and not polls? Seems silly. Yeah. 538's model relies on polls that take into account early voters' responses to reflect early voting. Except whoops, there haven't been many polls of NV this week.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:22
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Good God I hope we get the Senate. It is too close for comfort. Sucks that even my left leaning friends hate Bayh. I hope they voted for him anyways...
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Nov 5, 2016 19:29
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Wyld Thang posted:Nevada Democrats aren't crossing over to vote for a Republican. What I was saying was, naturally the early voting numbers would favor the Democrat and theoretically those numbers may be way different on Election Day. Of course as you and others have pointed out, by now the early voting is high enough that it's basically over barring some huge mistake in the exit polling. So my earlier caveat really doesn't apply.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:28
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So what would you say are the chances in Nevada based on those early voting numbers? 70%? 90%? 95%? It does look weird that the previous polls were so far off. Maybe every other poll which showed Clinton ahead was wrong too?
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Nov 5, 2016 19:30
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cant cook creole bream posted:So what would you say are the chances in Nevada based on those early voting numbers? 70%? 90%? 95%? Let me reply to you with this nugget: https://twitter.com/BillinPortland/status/794970853024919552
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Nov 5, 2016 19:35
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cant cook creole bream posted:So what would you say are the chances in Nevada based on those early voting numbers? 70%? 90%? 95%? Don't know about other polls but the recent CNN/ORC with trump +6 in Nevada had him +1 in Clark iirc. The same Clark where democrats have accumulated a massive EV lead. Their LV screen is a hell of a thing.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:35
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Pastrymancy posted:But that seems like a non issue to the base. Granted, they really need college educated whites to come home Maybe Rudy as a former prosecutor realized that if he keeps talking about getting leaks from Feds violating the Hatch Act, he might end up in front of a grand jury? Ballz posted:Trump posted his map. So they've conceded PA and even NH? How is Michigan a closer shot than PA?  I guess the pollster they hired after the guy they stiffed realized he needs to cook up some bullshit Trump wants to hear to get paid.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:39
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cant cook creole bream posted:So what would you say are the chances in Nevada based on those early voting numbers? 70%? 90%? 95%? Nevada is operating within expected parameters, we knew the vote for people Trump belittles was going to be higher than LV screens were likely anticipating. The unknowns of this election are "how much does ground game matter" and what extent do LV screens actually work.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:40
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canepazzo posted:Let me reply to you with this nugget: https://twitter.com/BillinPortland/status/794968504856432645 She looks so goddamn uncomfortable. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Nov 5, 2016 |
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Nov 5, 2016 19:41
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RuanGacho posted:Nevada is operating within expected parameters, we knew the vote for people Trump belittles was going to be higher than LV screens were likely anticipating. The unknowns of this election are "how much does ground game matter" and what extent do LV screens actually work. One of the most common comment I see from those monitoring early vote is that majority of dem and npa voting is coming from unlikely voters; mostly people who haven't voted in 2012, or only once in the last 3 elections (not sure if it includes 2010 and 2014 or it counts only presidentials). Based on that, I think LV are likely underpolling dem voters.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:43
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Filthy Hans posted:Wow, that poll is far more optimistic than I expected. The current initiative is more limited in medical scope than the last one, but even so there are vast numbers of Floridians who will benefit from medical marijuana. quote:“Debilitating Medical Condition” means cancer, epilepsy, glaucoma, positive status for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), acquired Not a lawyer but does the line I've bolded in the definition text give an out of the restrictions and allow prescription at a doctor's discretion like in other medical states? FadedReality fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Nov 5, 2016 |
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Nov 5, 2016 19:43
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Antti posted:Maybe Rudy as a former prosecutor realized that if he keeps talking about getting leaks from Feds violating the Hatch Act, he might end up in front of a grand jury? NH should probably be red on this map if they're thinking of taking Michigan, Ohio and Iowa, but its small electoral votes would make no difference one way or the other. PA going red is an urban legend, so it'd make sense for them to concede it. Of course, the latest rumblings is Trump camp has given up altogether and their new goalpost is "doing better than Romney."
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Nov 5, 2016 19:44
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He's becoming aware. https://twitter.com/Evan_McMullin/status/794960628527996928
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Nov 5, 2016 19:44
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canepazzo posted:One of the most common comment I see from those monitoring early vote is that majority of dem and npa voting is coming from unlikely voters; mostly people who haven't voted in 2012, or only once in the last 3 elections (not sure if it includes 2010 and 2014 or it counts only presidentials). Based on that, I think LV are likely underpolling dem voters. I would agree and add the further caveat that they're probably overestimating the normalcy of this elections because the LV models all assume at least a Romney level effort on the Republicans part for GOTV. I don't want to be smug and assured yet but it seems largely like that is coming to pass.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:46
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cant cook creole bream posted:Who is that? He does raise an interesting point though: Trump always looks like he doesn't know how to hold babies either when someone hands theirs over for a photo op. The Obamas and Hillary look like they've, you know, actually spent time raising their children as opposed to shuffling them over to a nanny.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:46
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Deplorable exmarx posted:You can post about the election here. I haven't been one to take the troll bait much but just to clarify, does this include quoting a poster you disagree with and attacking their position?
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Nov 5, 2016 19:48
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Maxwell Lord posted:What I was saying was, naturally the early voting numbers would favor the Democrat and theoretically those numbers may be way different on Election Day. That's statistically impossible with over 50% of the usual general election turnout already accounted for.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:48
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Kro-Bar posted:He's becoming aware. Huh, He's embracing it. Every time I actually hear something about him, I start to respect him more. That annoys me to no end. By the way. do you think there could be unfaithful electors in Utah?
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Nov 5, 2016 19:49
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Nate's made the closing argument - Hillary has to fear 3 factors: White college voters going back to Trump African-American turnout tanking White non-college voters surge (the shy Trump wave). If only one happens, she's fine. If all three, he wins. If two out of three, it's a coin toss (and potentially EV / popular vote split in Trump's favour). Not as optimistic as others, but I think it's good odds for the good guys.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:50
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A couple of periodic reminders: I've compiled a Twitter list of corncobs that should provide much entertainment on Election Night: https://twitter.com/NewsFedora/lists/corncobs Currently has 26 people, and I'm always open for more additions. I'll be working for much of election night so I probably won't be able to add anyone then, so get me your suggestions now! It has your Bill Mitchells, your Mike Cernoviches, and poo poo, H.A. Goodman is there just for the hell of it. Secondly, please consider giving some of your nasty woman cash or bad hombre bucks to a charity that helps victims of domestic and sexual abuse. Pretty sure we've raised more money in less than a month than Trump has given to charity in 25 years.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:51
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Ballz posted:Of course, the latest rumblings is Trump camp has given up altogether and their new goalpost is "doing better than Romney." Romney at least had the appearance of a voter turnout machine. Trump doesn't even have that.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:52
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Reminder
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Nov 5, 2016 19:53
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+1 today for Hillary in FL, as well as a vote against the power companies and their bullshit and one for medical marijuana. Also hoping Rubio somehow loses.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:53
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cant cook creole bream posted:Huh, He's embracing it. Every time I actually hear something about him, I start to respect him more. That annoys me to no end. Dont you hate it when Mormons turn out to be waaaayy too nice? Except for the gay hatin thing
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Nov 5, 2016 19:54
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canepazzo posted:Nate's made the closing argument - Hillary has to fear 3 factors: I don't see 1 happening at all, and while 2 may be lower than 2008/12, I don't think it'll drop to "tanking" levels. 3 is the most likely of any, but even that I can see being less than anticipated due to Trump's complete disinterest in a GOTV effort.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:56
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canepazzo posted:Nate's made the closing argument - Hillary has to fear 3 factors: So no, no, and probably not enough anyway even if it did. She'll be fine.
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Nov 5, 2016 19:58
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Nate Silver is paid to arzy. No one does it better than him.
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Nov 5, 2016 20:02
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cant cook creole bream posted:Who is that? He does raise an interesting point though:
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Nov 5, 2016 20:01
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Alan Smithee posted:Dont you hate it when Mormons turn out to be waaaayy too nice? Except for the gay hatin thing Tell me about it, I'm a conflicted fan of Brandon Sanderson. Is there anyone else notable these days that fits into ye olde Republican stereotype of being a polite nice guy who secretly/not-so-openly hates a certain group?
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Nov 5, 2016 20:03
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I really can't shake the feeling that Nate Silver is hedging his results so much that his commentary on the polls has gone very far past an event horizon of useless punditry. But that's probably because that's exactly what's happening. Everything I've read from him in the last month translated into "This candidate could win, unless they lose. What the polls tell us, according to my very scientific model, is that the winning will happen if things that could cause the candidate to lose do not happen, but if things happen that could cause the candidate to lose, then look out! That would mean, according to my very scientific model, that they could lose."
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Nov 5, 2016 20:04
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Wyld Thang posted:That's statistically impossible with over 50% of the usual general election turnout already accounted for. Well, yeah, when I wrote that post I did not realize just how much of the state that EV was going to represent.
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Nov 5, 2016 20:05
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perhaps in 2020 they can run a "Trump is lit fam" shirt
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Nov 5, 2016 20:06
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Argas posted:Tell me about it, I'm a conflicted fan of Brandon Sanderson. Killary Rotten Clinton her  erased emails proof it!Serious answer: Strictly speaking not a politician, but a lot of people who watched the third debate thought that Chris Wallace seems like a nice guy. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Nov 5, 2016 |
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Nov 5, 2016 20:07
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Ballz posted:A couple of periodic reminders: I appreciate the corncobs list, though I made the mistake of looking at it early, and now need to scrub all the blood from my monitor when my head exploded. Saved until Wednesday morning.
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Nov 5, 2016 20:07
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The Pope is woke: https://twitter.com/AlGiordano/status/794980464540995584
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Nov 5, 2016 20:12
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https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793866560112918528 the gently caress is wrong with WI. Ron Johnson?
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Nov 5, 2016 20:13
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Alan Smithee posted:perhaps in 2020 they can run a "Trump is lit fam" shirt Saw a 16 year old at the high school I work at wearing a blue version of this. 
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