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El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Many of these large stores are now going under as they either move to emulate Amazon or get crushed by Amazon. In their wake they're abandoning their buildings which are now turning into blighted hulks. A lot of large retailers also are dependent on commercial corridors or shopping centers to drive traffic to their shops and they rely on the presence of a high density of large box retailers in one place in order to generate the traffic they need. When a single large box goes under, the drop in traffic causes a sudden a precipitous drop in sales for all of the surrounding boxes.

The creation of these developments is highly incentivized because most cities and towns see 100% of the sales tax go to the local governance. This is why local officials love to rubberstamp or even pay for any kind of high volume or high ticket-price (think car lots) development because they see more of that sales tax revenue than any other type of development.

That being said, when you look at the circulation of revenues and profits, local independents recirculate more of their revenues and profits (think wages, buying locally for their supply chains and maintenance, and taxes) by a large margin than any big box retailer or Amazon


I think that the US retail space is actually in a prime position to see local independent retailers make a resurgence. The modern retail space is incompatible with the big box store model and the only reason they're holding on anymore is because of favorable tax subsidies.

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El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

I mean, nobody is really arguing that massive retailers are going away, but I think a good argument can be made for the death of the big box store and its subsequent replacement with small shopping corridors filled with boutique shops stocked with difficult-to-find-online and small run production goods.

Additionally, the benefit to the local cities and communities (financially and socially) is as good or better than what that city would net from the high-volume sales tax revenue that goes along with snagging a big box store.


The employment gains (in number) are also superior or equal to shopping corridors.

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

OwlFancier posted:

Assuming you have a ready supply of poncy rich fuckers to shop at the boutique shops and their absurd markups and you don't mind everyone who needed to go to the big store for basic goods doing without, sure.

The argument is that on-demand, internet delivery, and small-square-footage "essentials" chains will handle the basics (walgreens and target have been doing this) and the volume (dispensing the need for big boxes.) Those who needed to go to the big store for basic things will still get those basic things, probably from the same big store - they just won't go there. Pretty much every single bulk goods store and big box store has been rolling out a delivery service of some sort and the demand is such that even the firms that aren't doing that themselves are seeing online concierge services that do that for people (instacart/google express).

Since nearly all online revenue (something like 90%) and sales taxes don't get returned to the municipality, cities will have look elsewhere for that revenue.

El Mero Mero fucked around with this message at 06:12 on Dec 6, 2016

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

fishmech posted:

What? I see that all the time. The nearest supermarket has the high capacity style self-checkout lanes, with huge bagging areas and a belt.


RFID signaling has a lot of issues with consistent reads and mistaken multiple reads. Customers absolutely hate getting overcharged from the latter, and the retailers hate when undercharging happens from the former.

Plus, while it'd be easy to get RFID tagging integrated to simple standard items like pre-packaged goods, how are you going to do it for stuff like freshly cut meat, fresh baked things, loose produce, etc? That's a major chunk of most supermarkets' business.


The current hope is that machine learning algorithms + a camera will replace scanning - at which point you can just point a camera at a thing and product match it. If they can get that working you could ditch the checkout counter entirely.

I'm sure it won't play out cleanly though as much as I'm sure that grocers learned nothing from the overstated promises of self-checkout.

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

RuanGacho posted:

We have a problem where there's basically two kinds of commercial space available, one is old side of town owned by all the same guy who whines when the newer side of town gets any kind of activity plotted in it, but he doesn't do anything to keep up his spaces, but is generally affordable to exist in. He's not at 100% capacity any more because he won't upgrade and maintain the buildings anything more than code/health regulation requires.

Another third is owned by Kroger subsidiaries and kept up but will do things like not allow the regionally acclaimed Butcher (people come from all over to get product from him) to move in next to their grocers, which is reasonable but it is killing options in the town because of the third type in town

Newer stuff on the south side has kept up retail but is owned by investment groups who would rather let stuff sit vacant than local businesses start up, this is why I was curious about the vacancy tax, to see if it could act as a disincentive to that behavior but considering the other two would fight it equally as hard I don't see how it would solve anything in our situation other than to piss people off for "government taxes!"

The current battle is to make the local government budget sustainable without going all in on an anchor store like this thread has talked about, it's heavily developed bedroom community and needs commercial tax bases, but it's in a place people want to live unlike what apparently is rural America.

I'd like to think that if things work out alright it would be a good model for revitalizing towns across the country, where people are reasonably close to the services and jobs they need without making the largest cities where the jobs are exclusively.


One quasi-solution that I've seen cities in my area do to address this has been to relax leasing and permitting requirements in vacant corridors to allow for temporary pop-up stores. Many landlords don't want to commit to long-term commercial leases if they think that property valuation trends are on their side. They're so afraid of locking in a below-market rate for someone that they'd prefer a vacancy. The business owners get to sell, the landlords get to keep their flexibility and earn fees on space usage.

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Good on Amazon, but it also makes business sense because it's a great way to gently caress over Walmart and steal their customer base at the moment when Walmart is exploring doing on-demand delivery.

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Sure, and before that they had someone stand in the store and go "huh, looks like people go right to the candy isle, lets put some candy up front" or whatever. But precise real time movement tracking of "xae's iphone" across every trip to every target is some pretty huge new tools that wasn't really a thing before.

Which really makes you wonder if those new tools are generating any insights more profound or powerful than that observer. Not sure if there's a lot of room left for innovation around floor/inventory layouts

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Think about how big a deal it was when websites went from simple hit counters and page load bar graphs to modern analytics. Think of all the teams of people that study exactly how many milliseconds a person is engaged with each page of a site and the exact workflow people use and exactly what page causes them to leave the page and stuff.

Stores do that stuff too, but it's slow and sporadic, imagine a store that generates as much data on their customers as something like amazon does. It's a big deal.

Online shopping is absolutely new terrain though and there was no prior set of experience to really draw from. The insights that analytics gave to Amazon in that space were incredibly impactful not just because of the tools but also because they were prospecting an unmined landscape.

Brick and mortar retail has lots of prior research. There may not exist opportunities for dramatic disruptive gains to be had in this space outside of hoping on monopoly pricing.

El Mero Mero fucked around with this message at 01:44 on Jun 18, 2017

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Paradoxish posted:


Eatsa is pretty much a modern day automat with a lovely techbro startup flavor.

For those not in the bay area:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWeocXaIPMo&hd=1

it's alright

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Blut posted:


The terrible maths of this (from a government perspective) boggle of my mind. I'd love to know how much each retired worker will end up costing the government, far in excess of their contributions.

Our generation is really getting screwed in comparison to sweet deals like that. No more DB pensions on offer anywhere, just Defined Contribution.

Really both generations are getting screwed, because those pensions were often carved out under the assumption of a world with expanding governments bringing on new people who could/would pay the way for retirees. Instead, almost no new people are being brought on, or there's a "2-4 out, 1 in" situation where retirees aren't replaced.

It's a structural situation that's slowly strangling most governments since without new employee contributions offsetting retiree benefits, governments are having to fund more of those retirees out of their operating budgets. This in turn makes them less able to provide services, hire new people, etc and that drives public backlash which cuts budgets even further.

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El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

His Divine Shadow posted:

Speaking of retail. This weekend we did our yearly Christmas shopping, which entailed going into the city and a lot of the more "upscale" shopping malls downtown, and drat it's such a depressing place to visit. This is bougie paradise apparently, glitzy shops and restaurants and all that kind of stuff people are supposed to like and want from life. Except me apparently. To me everything felt wrong, or crass, like I was in some kind of 80s movie about future capitalist dystopian societies. A pervading, dread sense of "keeping up with the joneses" perhaps how I'd describe it. Horrible feel to the place.

So what you're saying is Christmas is alive and well?

Close the thread folks, retail is alive!

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