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Kevlar v2.0
Dec 25, 2003

=^•⩊•^=
A whole bunch of us went to a Chicago Dogs game and got to see Carlos Zambrano pitch. Also we got our names up on the scoreboard.

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Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
Currently watching Carlos Zambrano blow 85 MPH fastballs past these Saint Paul scrubs

Pancakes
May 21, 2001

Crypto-Rump Roast

Kevlar v2.0 posted:

A whole bunch of us went to a Chicago Dogs game and got to see Carlos Zambrano pitch. Also we got our names up on the scoreboard.



The announcer sounded so happy when he said “oafs”.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

With his second home run of the night, Mitch Garver has hit the Twins 268th home run of the 2019 MLB season, a new MLB record for home runs by a team in a single season.

https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/5d15eed8-6d8a-4c5d-8d9e-d0025ebfd919.mp4

It is August 31st.

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 02:31 on Sep 1, 2019

beejay
Apr 7, 2002

Kevlar v2.0 posted:

A whole bunch of us went to a Chicago Dogs game and got to see Carlos Zambrano pitch. Also we got our names up on the scoreboard.



I love it

vincentpricesboner
Sep 3, 2006

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

IcePhoenix posted:

With his second home run of the night, Mitch Garver has hit the Twins 268th home run of the 2019 MLB season, a new MLB record for home runs by a team in a single season.

https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/5d15eed8-6d8a-4c5d-8d9e-d0025ebfd919.mp4

It is August 31st.

Lol @ anyone that thinks the ball isnt juiced.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

zapplez posted:

Lol @ anyone that thinks the ball isnt juiced.

It's pathetic. The home run is a completely meaningless stat now. There are garbage players all over baseball who are gonna hit 30 homers this year.

HOTLANTA MAN
Jul 4, 2010

by Hand Knit
Lipstick Apathy
Glad all the cubs fans had fun. I hope you said hi to Big Z

Crazy Ted
Jul 29, 2003

zapplez posted:

Lol @ anyone that thinks the ball isnt juiced.
It's time for the drag bunt to come back in style.

Mr. Meagles
Apr 30, 2004

Out here, everything hurts


Crazy Ted posted:

It's time for the drag bunt to come back in style.

you could score like 200 runs a game by doing that over and over in Triple Play 97', I don't see why it wouldn't be a viable strategy

Pakistani Brad Pitt
Nov 28, 2004

Not as taciturn, but still terribly powerful...



mcmagic posted:

It's pathetic. The home run is a completely meaningless stat now. There are garbage players all over baseball who are gonna hit 30 homers this year.

It’s ok, we’ll still collapse to NY teams in the playoffs, it’s the Minnesota way

HOTLANTA MAN
Jul 4, 2010

by Hand Knit
Lipstick Apathy

mcmagic posted:

It's pathetic. The home run is a completely meaningless stat now. There are garbage players all over baseball who are gonna hit 30 homers this year.

Shut the gently caress up mcmagic

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I know this disgusted me to watch all month and I'm sure mcmagic will join the rest of the thread to share in their disgust.

https://twitter.com/YESNetwork/status/1167920081038233601

HOTLANTA MAN
Jul 4, 2010

by Hand Knit
Lipstick Apathy
Best celebration all year imo

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1167996749379772416?s=19

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Pakistani Brad Pitt posted:

It’s ok, we’ll still collapse to NY teams in the playoffs, it’s the Minnesota way

I wasn't trying to single out the Twins. It's all around baseball.


HOTLANTA MAN posted:

Shut the gently caress up mcmagic

I would suggest you take your own advice.

The Pussy Boss
Nov 2, 2004

mcmagic posted:

It's pathetic. The home run is a completely meaningless stat now. There are garbage players all over baseball who are gonna hit 30 homers this year.

Yeah 30 HR is the new 20. Decent but nothing special. Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez, Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Schwarber, etc. all gonna hit 30+

Ammat The Ankh
Sep 7, 2010

Now, attempt to defeat me!
And I shall become a living legend!
FUUUUCK

https://twitter.com/RM_Geary/status/1167998502439280642

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

mcmagic posted:

It's pathetic. The home run is a completely meaningless stat now. There are garbage players all over baseball who are gonna hit 30 homers this year.

Ya the accomplishments of Tony Batista and Cory Snyder have been ruined.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

Kevlar v2.0 posted:

A whole bunch of us went to a Chicago Dogs game and got to see Carlos Zambrano pitch. Also we got our names up on the scoreboard.



I love this so much

New Concept Hole
Oct 10, 2012

東方動的

First time I ever tried to throw a baseball really hard I did the same thing. I never pitched again. Or before.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

Ya the accomplishments of Tony Batista and Cory Snyder have been ruined.

You only remember those guys because they were dumb flukes. Now it's the whole sport.

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Dodgers are ready for September!

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

mcmagic posted:

You only remember those guys because they were dumb flukes. Now it's the whole sport.

Nah.

Big Mean Jerk
Jan 27, 2009

Well, of course I know him.
He's me.

mcmagic posted:

You only remember those guys because they were dumb flukes. Now it's the whole sport.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0W_NEDff0c

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Kevlar v2.0 posted:

A whole bunch of us went to a Chicago Dogs game and got to see Carlos Zambrano pitch. Also we got our names up on the scoreboard.



Proud to be one of the oafs.

rickiep00h
Aug 16, 2010

BATDANCE


Pancakes posted:

The announcer sounded so happy when he said “oafs”.

poo poo, *I* was happy when he said "oafs".

ChiTownEddie
Mar 26, 2010

Awesome beer, no pants.
Join the Legion.

rickiep00h posted:

poo poo, *I* was happy when he said "oafs".

It really was great hahaha

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I just want to thank baseball for once again being one of the only things in my life making me feel young because I'm not on the "its a disgrace!" side of the "lots of HRs" issue.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


CARLOS loving ZAMBRANO

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

Bitching about fifth starters is some serious first world problems but god drat

I hope Framber pops for roids at this point just so he'll be gone, hopefully forever

mcmagic posted:

You only remember those guys because they were dumb flukes. Now it's the whole sport.

HOTLANTA MAN posted:

Shut the gently caress up mcmagic

God I hate you for making me quote hotlanta man in agreement with him

Intruder fucked around with this message at 05:34 on Sep 1, 2019

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Intruder posted:

Bitching about fifth starters is some serious first world problems but god drat

I hope Framber pops for roids at this point just so he'll be gone, hopefully forever

Its an improvement over worrying about 4th aces.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

e: god drat double post

STAC Goat posted:

Its an improvement over worrying about 4th aces.

Must be similar to the pain of having your team's best players injured all year and still having baseball's best record

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer

R.D. Mangles posted:

CARLOS loving ZAMBRANO

Clowning a bunch of 20 year old studs in Rosemont, a thing of beauty

Pancakes
May 21, 2001

Crypto-Rump Roast
Can someone who's done math more recently than I have please explain how 6 teams can all be projected at a greater than 55% chance to make the postseason in the AL? It seems fundamentally wrong to have Tampa, Cleveland and Oakland all projected as more likely than not to make the playoffs while also acknowledging the near mathematical certainty that the Yankees, Twins and Astros will be there.

Explosionface
May 30, 2011

We can dance if we want to,
we can leave Marle behind.
'Cause your fiends don't dance,
and if they don't dance,
they'll get a Robo Fist of mine.


Mangles, there's a jomboy video making fun of your boy Jared Hughes sprinting in like a maniac

rickiep00h
Aug 16, 2010

BATDANCE


Pancakes posted:

Can someone who's done math more recently than I have please explain how 6 teams can all be projected at a greater than 55% chance to make the postseason in the AL? It seems fundamentally wrong to have Tampa, Cleveland and Oakland all projected as more likely than not to make the playoffs while also acknowledging the near mathematical certainty that the Yankees, Twins and Astros will be there.



Looking at it, it seems like the odds are all based on who is going to make the wild card game. Since none of those three teams play against each other with a month left, there's no chance that any of them will gain on the others through direct competition, and it's down to (I'm assuming) schedule difficulty. A lot can happen in ~30 games, and since the closest we can get is "these guys have a good chance to make it," it seems likely to me that they all have a statistical shot at it while still knowing that it obviously can't possibly happen that six teams get five slots.

Put another way, the odds of each (wild card) team is effectively independent of each other (wild card) team with a month to go. The closer to October we get, the more those odds will go down for one of those teams.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Pancakes posted:

Can someone who's done math more recently than I have please explain how 6 teams can all be projected at a greater than 55% chance to make the postseason in the AL? It seems fundamentally wrong to have Tampa, Cleveland and Oakland all projected as more likely than not to make the playoffs while also acknowledging the near mathematical certainty that the Yankees, Twins and Astros will be there.



There's 500% of playoffs and three teams are effectively splitting 190% of it (I'm just rounding with the three certainties taking 100% each and the red sox taking 10%)

Or to break it down a little bit more

YOU KNOW THEY SAY ALL WILD CARD TEAMS ARE CREATED EQUAL. BUT YOU LOOK AT OAKLAND AND YOU LOOK AT CLEVELAND AND YOU CAN SEE THAT STATEMENT IS NOT TRUE! SEE NORMALLY IF YOU GO 1 ON 1 WITH ANOTHER TEAM YOU GOT A 50/50 CHANCE OF WINNING! BUT OAKLAND'S A SABERMETRIC FREAK AND THEY'RE NOT NORMAL! SO YOU GOT A 25% AT BEST AT BEAT THEM! AND THEN YOU ADD TAMPA TO THE MIX, THE CHANCES OF WINNING DRASTIC GO DOWN! SEE THE 3 WAY AT WILD CARD YOU GOT A 33 1/3 CHANCE OF WINNING. BUT A'S, A'S GOT A 66 2/3 CHANCE OF WINNING CAUSE TAMPA KNOWS HE CAN'T BEAT THEM AND THEY'RE NOT EVEN GONNA TRY! SO CLEVELAND YOU TAKE YOUR 33 1/3 CHANCE MINUS THEIR 25% CHANCE AND YOU GOT 8 1/3 CHANCE OF WINNING A WILD CARD. BUT THEN YOU TAKE THEIR 75% CHANCE OF WINNING IF YOU WAS TO GO 1 ON 1 AND THEN ADD 66 2/3 %. THEY GOT A 141 2/3 CHANCE OF WINNING AT SACRIFICE! CLEVELAND?THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE AND THEY SPELL DISASTER FOR YOU AT WILD CARD!

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 09:26 on Sep 1, 2019

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

to actually break it down, if all things are equal, because there's two wild card teams each team can have three results: Wild Card A, WIld Card B, out of playoffs. That means that each team has 2/3 results that put them in the playoffs, so each team would have a 66.7% chance at making the playoffs despite there only being two spots

but that's less fun than Steiner Math

alpha_destroy
Mar 23, 2010

Billy Butler: Fat Guy by Day, Doubles Machine by Night

IcePhoenix posted:

YOU KNOW THEY SAY ALL WILD CARD TEAMS ARE CREATED EQUAL. BUT YOU LOOK AT OAKLAND AND YOU LOOK AT CLEVELAND AND YOU CAN SEE THAT STATEMENT IS NOT TRUE! SEE NORMALLY IF YOU GO 1 ON 1 WITH ANOTHER TEAM YOU GOT A 50/50 CHANCE OF WINNING! BUT OAKLAND'S A SABERMETRIC FREAK AND THEY'RE NOT NORMAL! SO YOU GOT A 25% AT BEST AT BEAT THEM! AND THEN YOU ADD TAMPA TO THE MIX, THE CHANCES OF WINNING DRASTIC GO DOWN! SEE THE 3 WAY AT WILD CARD YOU GOT A 33 1/3 CHANCE OF WINNING. BUT A'S, A'S GOT A 66 2/3 CHANCE OF WINNING CAUSE TAMPA KNOWS HE CAN'T BEAT THEM AND THEY'RE NOT EVEN GONNA TRY! SO CLEVELAND YOU TAKE YOUR 33 1/3 CHANCE MINUS THEIR 25% CHANCE AND YOU GOT 8 1/3 CHANCE OF WINNING A WILD CARD. BUT THEN YOU TAKE THEIR 75% CHANCE OF WINNING IF YOU WAS TO GO 1 ON 1 AND THEN ADD 66 2/3 %. THEY GOT A 141 2/3 CHANCE OF WINNING AT SACRIFICE! CLEVELAND?THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE AND THEY SPELL DISASTER FOR YOU AT WILD CARD!

Always good to see some Steiner math

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Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
mcmagic's right about the juiced ball making home runs boring, unless it's an A's corner infielder named Matt

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