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2021 was a great year for the NFC Best. Considered the deepest division in football entering the season, the West (with one notable exception) lived up to expectations, sending three teams to the playoffs and seeing the Rams and 49ers face off in the NFC Championship. The Rams went on to lift the Lombardi Trophy, cementing the West's status as the class of the NFL. This division won't be quite as deep in 2022 (thanks to someone throwing in the towel up in the Northwest), but it should be as competitive as ever, with the Rams in strong position to repeat and the Niners and Cardinals expected to make runs again. We'll get to that other team in a minute. (odds numbers from Caeser's as of late July) Arizona Cardinals 2021 record: 11-6, Wild Card loss Super Bowl odds: +3500 Win over/under: 9.5 Head coach: Kliff Kingsbury Quarterback: Kyler Murray I think "weird vibes" best sums up this team right now. At one point the Cardinals were 10-2 with Murray playing at an MVP level, only to lose four of their last five to blow the division lead, culminating in a humiliating no-show against the Rams in the playoffs. Kyler eventually got his bag, but not after a bizarre offseason full of social media unfollows and contractually-mandated homework. On the field, they replaced Christian Kirk with Marquise Brown but lost DeAndre Hopkins for the first 6 games, so the offense remains weirdly top-heavy. On top of that, we're still not sure if Kingsbury is actually a good coach or not. The Cardinals (and Murray) have the talent to go on a deep January run, but they seem to always get in their own way. Los Angeles Rams 2021 record: 12-5, Super Bowl champions Super Bowl odds: +1100 Win over/under: 10.5 Head coach: Sean McVay Quarterback: Matthew Stafford The aggressive move for Stafford paid off big, delivering the Rams their first ring in 21 years. The roster returns mostly intact, though they will miss Andrew Whitworth and Odell Beckham may or may not return while rehabbing his ACL. In the meantime, Allen Robinson should do just fine complementing Cooper Kupp. Oh, and Aaron Donald decided not to retire. A deep, well-coached roster on both sides of the ball. there's no reason to expect a Super Bowl hangover in Inglewood. San Francisco 49ers 2021 record: 10-7, NFC Championship Game loss Super Bowl odds: +1600 Win over/under: 9.5 Head coach: Kyle Shanahan Quarterback: Trey Lance I've given Shanny a lot of grief over the years for his team not always living up to potential, but when they do reach their ceiling, it's really drat high -- two NFCCG appearances in three years is hard to argue with. This time, they're trying to do it with a QB who's barely played in two years, while their stacked roster of young superstars patiently (or impatiently, in Deebo's case) wait for their well-earned bags. I legitimately don't know what to expect from Lance, and that's what makes this team so interesting. If he hits, they'll be right there in the Super Bowl chase. Seattle Seahawks 2021 record: 7-10 Super Bowl odds: +15000 Win over/under: 5.5 Head coach: Pete Carroll Quarterbacks: Geno Smith, Drew Lock Look at the quarterbacks above and tell us if you expect Seattle to do anything this year. The 2022 season stopped mattering the moment they traded Russell Wlson. This is purely an evaluation year as they try to prepare for the post-Russ era. If there's any optimism for this year, the defense has some nice pieces that could come together under new DC Clint Hurtt, a Vic Fangio disciple who's installing a similar 3-4 scheme. And the offense is still carried by DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Rashaad Penny, along with a rebuilt O-line that will be starting multiple rookies. If Wilson was still around this team might be a trendy bounce-back candidate, but what's done is done, and now they're stuck with one of if not the worst QB room in the league. Drew Lock straight-up doesn't belong in the NFL if he can't beat out Geno Smith in loving 2022. Division titles 49ers -- 20 Rams -- 18 Seahawks -- 9 Cardinals -- 3 Super Bowl appearances (winning years in bold) 49ers -- 7 (1981, 1984, 1988, 1989, 1994, 2012, 2019) Rams -- 5 (1979, 1999, 2001, 2018, 2021) Seahawks -- 3 (2005, 2013, 2014) Cardinals -- 1 (2008) Benne fucked around with this message at 07:21 on Jul 27, 2022 |
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Jul 27, 2022 03:43
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Blessed be the name of the Run.
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Jul 27, 2022 03:52
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Drew Lock will be competing with Geno Smith for MVP.
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Jul 27, 2022 04:14
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My avatar still works you just have to imagine Kyler wears 31
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Jul 27, 2022 04:21
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Good opening post. Two things regarding the Rams: Robert Woods is now on the titans (replace his name with Van Jefferson), and the Rams have five SB appearances (you listed the five, but headlined the notation with '4').
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Jul 27, 2022 04:47
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Blessed be the name of the Run. Amen
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Jul 27, 2022 05:04
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Blessed be the name of the Run. In Frank Gore's name, amen.
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Jul 27, 2022 05:20
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Here’s to a year when the Seahawks can return the favor to the Rams and be a really bad team inexplicably getting a win against them
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Jul 27, 2022 06:07
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Your 6-11 Seattle Seahawks, 6-0 in division play.
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Jul 27, 2022 06:10
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Footbawwww
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Jul 27, 2022 07:38
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That’s a good effort post, OP, thank you for making it
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Jul 27, 2022 07:39
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In the name of the Father The Run And the Holy Spirit Amen
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Jul 27, 2022 07:40
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My QB needed a contract to watch film because he's too cool and popular. Establish the run. Let's go Cards
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Jul 27, 2022 13:02
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Forrest on Fire posted:My QB needed a contract to watch film because he's too cool and popular. He knew film study doesn't matter because he'll just be handing off to establish the run.
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Jul 27, 2022 14:49
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Good post
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Jul 27, 2022 16:17
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Ground floor of an epic thread. Nice OP.
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Jul 27, 2022 16:22
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Thank you for the new thread! Here’s some hot hot Draw Play action. https://twitter.com/drawplaydave/status/1552320603985612801?s=21&t=c5hZ-IPpNWknwRXyXOKJGw
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Jul 27, 2022 16:56
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San Francisco 49ers roster changes I've probably missed one or two players, this is what I've scraped together and a couple of my thoughts on things. In the team's most important transaction of the offseason, the niners signed Frank Gore in May, so that he could retire as a 49er. Blessed be the Run. Raheem Mostert has moved on to the Dolphins. He's been hurt and missed a ton of games but when he plays he's been fantastic (5.7 YPC holy poo poo). Of all our turnover in staff this year, losing Mostert may ert the most. Trent Sherfield also went to the fins. So did River Cracraft. Gosh, I remember that guy I think? The reason so many niners went to Miami is probably because they also got our run coordinator, Mike McDaniel. Maybe Miami will stop their ten+ year habit of criminally wasting RB talent now? Richie James Jr. also left for the Giants. He had one monster game and otherwise was mostly a JAG fill-in for the 49er's constantly-injured offense. And Trenton Cannon went somewhere, nobody noticed or cared. On the defense, we signed CB Charvarius Ward (formerly Chiefs), which is good because while we re-signed Jason Varett, he is of course still injured. We also saw K'Wan Williams say goodbye as he goes to Denver, he wasn't great last year but he was probably a replacement-level guy. We lost DJ Jones to Denver and Arden Key to the Jags, but picked up Hassan Ridgeway from Philly and also got Kerry Hyder back from a brief loan to the hawks. Kentavius Street went to the Saints, perhaps to apologize for crushing Drew Brees' ribs that one time. IMO the DL isn't quite as good this year unless these guys can take a step up. DJ Jones in particular really hurts. On the OL, Alex Mack, our pro-bowl center, retired, which is a huge loss. Jake Brendel was Mack's backup last year and is speculated to be the starter, Brunskill is also an option, Dohnovan West is currently listed as 2nd behind Brendel, but maybe some rookie (RT Nick Zakelj?) or even a free agent could step in at some point, but Brendel's been 2nd team so Trey Lance has been working with him for a while and that puts him firmly in the lead for the job. Center will be a spot to watch during the preseason, I have my doubts that Brendel will ever be as good as Mack. We also lost pro bowler guard Laken Tomlinson to the Jets. Colton McKivitz is listed as starting left guard and I've never heard of him. Aparrently we drafted him in the 5th round in 2020 so he's at least been with the team a while. I hope that works out. His official position is still listed as tackle so I guess this is a shift. Definitely a worrying spot to keep an eye on. Lastly, quarterback Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Jul 27, 2022 |
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Jul 27, 2022 18:28
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I appreciate that effort post Leper. Where do you think the niners record will be?
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Jul 27, 2022 19:20
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Leperflesh posted:San Francisco 49ers roster changes NFC West 2022: losing Raheem Most Ert How much of Shannahan's zone run scheme runs through the inside zone? Did Mack pull block on outside runs? That could be a big blow if they can't move the interior linemen in this division.
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Jul 27, 2022 19:26
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Blessed be the name of the Run. Praise Be RUN NFC
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Jul 27, 2022 19:30
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Leperflesh posted:San Francisco 49ers roster changes They also just picked up Robert Nkemdiche, who was with the Seahawks last year. Their current "depth chart" via David Lombardi of The Athletic: https://t.co/Zdb3Z51Qx4 Coldforge fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Jul 27, 2022 |
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Jul 27, 2022 19:53
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Good news: K.J. Wright is back! Bad news: It’s a one-day retirement contract. Ah well, glad he got to come back to end things here. https://twitter.com/vountee/status/1552365445566660611?s=21&t=OwAq2-F6gxYNWzdGym2TMg
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Jul 27, 2022 19:54
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Ornery and Hornery posted:I appreciate that effort post Leper. Where do you think the niners record will be? I'm extremely bad at predictions. I think the NFL is super-chaotic. Injuries matter so much. There's only 17 games, which is a tiny sample size compared to basically every other professional sport. On any given season, any team could have a single disaster (at QB, say) and drop eight games they otherwise would have won. Or more! The NFC West has shifted. The presence of the superbowl champion rams has supplanted the presence of the perennial spoiler seahawks as the 49ers' biggest obstacle. But that's still just 2/17ths of the season. This article that leverages Vegas odds says the 9ers have a slightly easier than average schedule ahead of them, which basically tells me very little because of the variance and variability inherent in the sport - I think I'd take away only that I can't really look at the schedule and forsee a huge obstacle nor a super easy time of things. But none of that really matters because the 49ers are starting Trey Lance at QB and he's untested. That single wildcard throws every prediction into the trash. Unless Jimmy G sticks around as an option to swap in at QB if Lance can't hack it, the niners' fortunes are a total mystery. They could just as easily go 11-6 as 6-11. I don't fuckin' know, man. I've got reasons for optimism but who the hell knows. If Lance is a turnover machine the season will be poo poo. If he can handle Shanny's complicated offense, make the calls at the line between the primary and alternate called plays, hand the ball off, get it to Jyz, hit the tight end, make a few big downfield plays? They could cruise to the playoffs. Exciting!
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Jul 27, 2022 20:26
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I agree that the Niners are really hard to predict due to the Trey Lance situation. Will he be competent? Every time I saw him play it was either absolutely terrible or his WR ALL ALONE or doing some crazy YAC for a TD. Predicting a true unknown at QB is a fools errand, exciting though. I hope he sucks and this is the 6-11 year for the niners as the last 4 years they have to alternate between winning and losing seasons
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Jul 27, 2022 20:36
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Coldforge posted:They also just picked up Robert Nkemdiche, who was with the Seahawks last year. Interesting. Can't say I agree totally with this spreadsheet but it's got some key things. They're listing Aaron Banks at LG, with McKivitz as backup LT, which is different from ESPN (https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/sf/san-francisco-49ers). Hasty is the team's current kick returner according to ESPN, not sure how that affects bubble calculations, the niners taking Tyrion Davis-Price in the 3rd round really complicates things. Elijah Mitchell's injury status may resolve things, he's coming off knee surgery and missed six games last season, if there's concerns about his health I could see the 49ers keeping an extra RB on the 53. What do folks think of Nkemdiche? Looks like he was pretty much considered a bust so far, the hawks actually cut him at the end of training camp last year before bringing him back during the season, that's not exactly inspiring. Has he got potential?
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Jul 27, 2022 20:37
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Leperflesh posted:
The hawks pass rush sucked rear end outside of taylor and he was healthy scratch for at least 6 games for the hawks. Make of that as you will
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Jul 27, 2022 20:45
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The niners have a vicious pass rush already, I imagine Nkemdiche's role (as depth really) is to be a replacement-level lineman body. Maybe just a camp body and a shot at making the 53 if he takes a big step forward or if there's injuries. That spreadsheet Coldforge linked has him on the bubble. e. and that's with Kalia Davis as a PUP/IR guy in the same slot, a guy they drafted with a torn ACL so they must think he has promise. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:57 on Jul 27, 2022 |
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Jul 27, 2022 20:54
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https://twitter.com/49ers/status/1552391793630593024?s=20&t=HTtCuft0ax4Pb-OqYmpHHA Zero surprise, unfortunate injuries.
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Jul 27, 2022 21:36
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RIP to a real one. Dang.
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Jul 27, 2022 22:21
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Bob Socko posted:Good news: K.J. Wright is back! Actually kinda odd to see that. I thought he still had gas in the tank. Was he just not willing to take a small contract because I think a number of teams would have picked him up for cheap.
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Jul 27, 2022 22:29
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Sucks about Dee Ford, but we all knew it was coming. Injuries were just too much to bring him to back to full potential.
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Jul 28, 2022 00:27
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Lifespan posted:Actually kinda odd to see that. I thought he still had gas in the tank. Was he just not willing to take a small contract because I think a number of teams would have picked him up for cheap. If I recall correctly, his family stuck around in Seattle and he didn't like being away from them for half the year. He was putting out vibes he would take any contract Seattle would throw his way but I guess they just did not want him... Which is odd because I thought they would pick him up for minimum. nollij fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Jul 28, 2022 |
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Jul 28, 2022 01:26
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nollij posted:If I recall correctly, his family stuck around in Seattle and he didn't like being away from them for half the year. He was putting out vibes he would take any contract Seattle would throw his way but I guess they just did not want him... Which is odd because I thought they would pick him up for minimum. IIRC he said something like, "Seattle or retirement," a few months ago. He's been present at the facility all off season so I'm sure they've been discussing this with him for a while. He probably does still have a few decent seasons left, but what's the point? He's gotten paid, won a Super Bowl and is a fan favorite. Take your health and ride off into retirement.
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Jul 28, 2022 02:54
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Schwack posted:IIRC he said something like, "Seattle or retirement," a few months ago. He's been present at the facility all off season so I'm sure they've been discussing this with him for a while. He probably does still have a few decent seasons left, but what's the point? He's gotten paid, won a Super Bowl and is a fan favorite. Take your health and ride off into retirement. I like when a cool dude just wants to retire with his money and health intact. I’d love him to be a defensive coach for the Seahawks
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Jul 28, 2022 03:06
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Schwack posted:IIRC he said something like, "Seattle or retirement," a few months ago. He's been present at the facility all off season so I'm sure they've been discussing this with him for a while. He probably does still have a few decent seasons left, but what's the point? He's gotten paid, won a Super Bowl and is a fan favorite. Take your health and ride off into retirement. No argument as I would refer to him as "Seahawks legend KJ Wright" but I thought that even Seattle would have given him the veterans minimum for some playtime and mentorship but I'm assuming he wasn't interested in putting his health on the line for that.
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Jul 28, 2022 04:53
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Leperflesh posted:Interesting. Can't say I agree totally with this spreadsheet but it's got some key things. They're listing Aaron Banks at LG, with McKivitz as backup LT, which is different from ESPN (https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/sf/san-francisco-49ers). Hasty is the team's current kick returner according to ESPN, not sure how that affects bubble calculations, the niners taking Tyrion Davis-Price in the 3rd round really complicates things. Elijah Mitchell's injury status may resolve things, he's coming off knee surgery and missed six games last season, if there's concerns about his health I could see the 49ers keeping an extra RB on the 53. Banks will be given every opportunity to become the starter at LG. If he can't hack it then he was most likely a waste of a 2nd round pick. Shanny is already hyping up Sermon so who the hell knows what tailback will look like outside of Mitchell and Juice
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Jul 28, 2022 19:37
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Diche seems really bad, for the reasons posted above he did nothing for Seattle on a poo poo DL. Otoh this is the same defense that did dumb poo poo like drop Carlos Dunlap into coverage repeatedly.
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Jul 28, 2022 19:54
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I seem to recall a stat from last year, maybe the year before, that Seattle's d had the fewest disguised look plays of any team in the league? I think they've been terribly mishandled, not that that means Nkemdiche is any good or anything. Niners picking him up at 90 men doesn't mean he makes final roster though and this could easily be a camp body with maybe a long shot if he suddenly shows a bunch of hidden talent.
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Jul 28, 2022 20:07
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If you want to accurately1 assess Trey Lance's progress and have all your questions answered, here is Lombardi's compilation video of Trey's throws in camp so far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYwbuQaFErU 1lol
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Jul 28, 2022 22:47
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