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Will NBER declare that a US recession started in 2023?
Yes
No
Zaurg
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GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
no recession in 2024, as biden has had the fed rig the markets

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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

I say yes recession in 2024 because Biden

Hotel Kpro
Feb 24, 2011

owls don't go to school
Dinosaur Gum
I voted zaurg which I can only assume means total chaos

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”
Saw a recent article in the Wall Street Journal about only 700 IT jobs being added in 2023, down from like over 200k in 2022.

Not surprised considering the vibes among tech workers here in Seattle, either laid off and still looking for work or employed but no idea if they're next on the chopping block.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Mustang posted:

Saw a recent article in the Wall Street Journal about only 700 IT jobs being added in 2023, down from like over 200k in 2022.

Not surprised considering the vibes among tech workers here in Seattle, either laid off and still looking for work or employed but no idea if they're next on the chopping block.

WSJ are notorious for gross over reactions based on small, biased sample sizes.

There will be a slowdown for sure, but it'll mean tech jobs are closer to any other industry, not that it will look like rotary phone repair.

Ham Equity
Apr 16, 2013

i hosted a great goon meet and all i got was this lousy avatar
Grimey Drawer
I think I was just seeing that delinquency rates on car loans in the U.S. are higher than they've been since 2017 and rising. Maybe the car bubble is finally going to burst, like I've been saying for the last decade or so?

Serious_Cyclone
Oct 25, 2017

I appreciate your patience, this is a tricky maneuver

Ham Equity posted:

I think I was just seeing that delinquency rates on car loans in the U.S. are higher than they've been since 2017 and rising. Maybe the car bubble is finally going to burst, like I've been saying for the last decade or so?

There's an entire genre of YouTube channels for old white guys to rant at the screen while walking around, prophesying an economic downturn right around the corner. And there's a sub-genre specifically for the car market.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


There will be an economic downturn eventually. You do not know when that will be.

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer

Ham Equity posted:

I think I was just seeing that delinquency rates on car loans in the U.S. are higher than they've been since 2017 and rising. Maybe the car bubble is finally going to burst, like I've been saying for the last decade or so?

For what it's worth, the delinquency rate on sub prime auto loans appears to be the statistic people are reporting on, while burying that detail in the article. The majority of auto loans are made to prime borrowers. A quick check finds this statistic https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_auto_loans_delinquent_by_90_days which seems to indicate that overall delinquencies are lower than pre-pandemic.

Sub-prime borrowers are probably in loan hell right now though, because rates on those are apparently like credit card rates.

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zaurg
Mar 1, 2004
wtf

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