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The Latin America thread doesn't deserve this crap, I welcome you to the 2018 Brazil Elections Thread! I remember in 2014 the political polarization here reached a new peak that I never seen before. I said to a friend "lol it can't get any worse than this". Oh boy, how wrong I was. The history of politics in Brazil is super convoluted but let's try to untangle this clusterfuck together in this thread while laughing and crying until the ultimate demise of the south american giant. I'll gradually update the OP with info on each player in the game ordered by their current poll popularity.   Lula 30% PT (Worker's Party) Intro The former 35th president is the most popular precandidate right now. An old figure in Brazilian politics, his career started as a union leader. He lost in 1989, 1994 and 1998. In 2002 he beat the centrist PSDB candidate and became the first left-wing president starting the Worker's Party hegemony in Brazil that lasted 13 years.  The Lula years were arguably very good; Brazil had a modest economic miracle and the fallout from the 2008 global crisis was dealt in a gracious way. The Lula administration was defined by a substantial expansion of welfare policies. Lula left as the most popular president in history, with 83% approval. He served 2 terms as president, but the brazilian constitution is quirky and allows a person to serve more than 2 terms if they're nonconsecutive years. So... What's the catch here? Well, Lula is currently in prison. The fall of the Worker's Party Blatant bribery has been a constant in brazilian politics in every administration, that's how the sausage is made and everyone always knew it. You may have noticed in the graph above that Lula's popularity had a downfall in 2005. That's due to the Mensalão scandal which was about the Worker's Party bribing other parties for congress votes. Despite this, the Lula administration continued strong. Lula (and later Dilma) enabled policies to combat the corrupt practices of the general political class, it was the origin of stuff like the Clean Record Act and Operation Car Wash. Dilma was Lula's successor. She did not have the same political finesse as Lula had, she lost allies. In 2013 Brazil had its own "Arab Spring"-like manifestations and the general feeling of dissatisfaction caused a whole new level of political polarization. The 2014 elections were nasty, Dilma was reelected, winning against the PSDB candidate by a narrow margin. But the resentment against the Worker's Party was at an all-time high. The opposition was relentless and systematically attacked the Worker's Party. In a ridiculous House of Cards move, vice-president Michel Temer openly betrayed Dilma, opportunistically siding with the opposition. Congress members, many who were previously Worker's Party allies, called for the impeachment of president Dilma in late 2015. And as a resulting action of Operation Car Wash, Lula was arrested in April this year for passive bribery. I could get on the details of the accusations (Lula's arrest and Dilma's impeachment) but the partisan slant is the most relevant aspect of what happened. So what's Lula like? Lula is mostly a simple dude, he's old and a bit out of touch now. He survived cancer, his wife died last year. He's been criticized a lot for not having a college degree, thus being unfit to serve as president. His simple nature eventually became a huge charismatic asset among lower classes. Will Lula be allowed to be an official candidate? Probably not, it'd require a very lenient reading of the Clean Record Act and Lula's been categorically losing in courts for a while now. It's clear for everyone that the Worker's Party is in shambles and grasping at straws with his precandidacy. But we'll only know for sure in August. Coming next: Bolsonaro
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Jun 21, 2018 23:59
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Lula will be elected and there's gonna be a full on coup and civil war 
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Jun 22, 2018 02:07
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Meteoro Gigante 2018 One can only hope Bolsonaro's campaign implodes as spectacularly as Roseana Sarney in 2002 Machado de Assis fucked around with this message at 13:32 on Jun 22, 2018 |
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Jun 22, 2018 13:26
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Bolsonaro ain't gonna make it. Media (especially Globo) won't support this piece of poo poo and he's gonna get so roasted during the debates.
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Jun 22, 2018 18:10
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You are severely overestimating the media's power in the present day, especially when it is seen as part of the establishment that -everyone- hates. They may be able to destroy left-of-center politicians that their crowds are predisposed toward hating, but they are woefully unprepared to dealing with a radical that their public actually likes. Same way the US media was (and is) at a loss with how to deal with open fascists gaining power in the USA. Bolsonaro will easily go to the 2nd turn, likely with even better numbers than implied. Just like Le Pen and other vile human turds, there's a hidden 3-5% of people that are shamed to admit to polls that they will vote for the monster, but still go forward and push the button come election day. Now, if he wins or not in the end...it's a crap shoot. It depends on who goes up against him. If it's a non-entity or known compromised figure, blank votes and protest votes will put him over the edge. Otherwise, he'll lose, but have made enough of a statement that any government that comes afterward will have to cater to his base or be corroded from within (again).
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Jun 23, 2018 03:10
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Having to vote for Ciro will really piss me off if it happens
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Jun 23, 2018 05:36
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Symbolic Butt posted:Coming next: Bolsonaro Cursed.
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Jun 23, 2018 17:57
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Sephyr posted:Bolsonaro will easily go to the 2nd turn, likely with even better numbers than implied. Just like Le Pen and other vile human turds, there's a hidden 3-5% of people that are shamed to admit to polls that they will vote for the monster, but still go forward and push the button come election day. Yeah, there's a general "tolerance" towards Bolsonaro that I feel like it's more defining than open support for him. Basically instead of looking at how some people feel about Bolsonaro, look at how they talk about the other candidates. That's how you know they'll vote Bolsonaro for sure.
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Jun 23, 2018 18:47
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Watching Bolsonaro be warmly welcomed by the corporate executives and get -standing ovations- at the Hebraica club pretty much obliterated any hope I could have in the alleged "natural moderation" of Brazil's elite and middle class. And even those that favor other horses or dislike him will kiss his rear end if he seems likely to win, or prefer him to anyone who might throw a bone to anyone who isn't themselves.
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Jun 26, 2018 02:31
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Sephyr posted:the alleged "natural moderation" of <insert country>'s elite and middle class. lmao
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Jun 26, 2018 03:05
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I guess we all know who we're not voting for but who will we vote for then? There's 4 left-of-center candidates and the big one is incarcerated. That leaves us Ciro Gomes, who is trying to re-animate PDT's rotting corpse by purging right-wing opportunists like Ana Amelia at the top level, but whose actual support base is so small he will have to cave in to PMDB if he ever gets to be president. Boulos and Manoela are busy replaying stalinists vs trotskysts and won't win ever, so besides Lula riding a magical unicorn out of jail into the ballots what option is there for the brazilian left?
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Jun 27, 2018 01:06
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The truth is, even if Lula somehow got out of jail and was allowed to run (he won't), even he would not be able to untie the gordian knot that politics has become, It'd be like Peron's return to Argentina. The game has moved, everyone is poorer and madder and playing for keeps. I don't really see good outcomes coming from the election in any way. Even if Ciro or Haddad pull off a win, they will have the media against them, politicized courts nipping at their heels, and an unleashed, infinitely greedy congress requiring mountains of bribes to not simply shut down government on a whim. There's always mediocre crooks and loons in every country's governing system, but only in failed states and dying countries do they get to be the main moving force of politics, and that has been the case since 2016. There are roughly two paths shaping up from the election: -Ciro/Haddad/someone progressive wins. Congress clams up like an oyster, sandbagging their government. If they try to rule by executive, they are called despots by the media and impeached, especially if they try to undo the shitfuckery of the last 2 years. Should they somehow get to the end of their term, Bolsonaro or someone inspired by him will be in the wings to take over. -Bolsonaro wins. After a short honeymoon with the media and the elite, glad that the country was saved from Venezuela's face, it becomes clear that he has no clue of what he is doing and his apointees are either jokes or immensely corrupt ideologues. He has no option but to tone up his rethotic as he fails to fix the crisis, leading to violent repression of protests, likely extended interventions in more states, all that good stuff. He will either renounce when evangeloicals dump him for a leadership of their own, or might actually be deposed by an actual military coup when the armed forces get tired of picking up his poo poo. The only real solution I can see for the bondoggle would be a massive general election of the whole legislative, followed by a constitutional assembly to unfuck things a bit and maybe get some shred of legitimacy and functionality going. But those are usually best done when the situation is somewhat stable and prosperous, not when the country is melting.
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Jun 27, 2018 15:23
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I think you are right, but I hope that you are wrong.
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Jun 27, 2018 16:04
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But most definitely, we are hosed.
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Jun 27, 2018 16:50
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I mostly agree butquote:The only real solution I can see for the bondoggle would be a massive general election of the whole legislative, followed by a constitutional assembly to unfuck things a bit and maybe get some shred of legitimacy and functionality going. A new constitution, surely it will work THIS time!!!!
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Jun 28, 2018 00:00
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Oh, I know how nuts it sounds. But at the same time, what else is there? Fixing each of the severe power imbalances and loopholes in the machinery of power one at a time will never happen; there is not enough money on the planet to bribe the legislators, even if they cared to ruin their own privileges. It would have to be a big, one-time fix to avert national disaster. Which again, is unfeasible as poo poo, because so far everyone is still way too happy to play "Set the other guy's house on fire and hope it burns down faster than yours". And they'll stay that way long after the worker's party is a smoking hole in the ground and an evangelical pastor-senator is elbow-deep inside their asses and wallets.
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Jun 28, 2018 02:27
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bagual posted:I mostly agree but Reading about how Ulysses had to cave in for the worst kind of cretins in 88 to let them put their pet projects on the Constitution and this time it's going to be even more shameless people in charge of that.
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Jun 28, 2018 13:08
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Sephyr posted:might actually be deposed by an actual military coup when the armed forces get tired of picking up his poo poo.
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Jul 2, 2018 21:14
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:Surely this is still beyond the pale, even as ridiculous as everything has gotten? Not as much as you might think. I've mostly had contact with mid-level officers, and while most were decent enough types who had little intention of jumping in to try and untie the gordian knot of the crisis, they were of one mind in that if some moron is going to deploy them left at right to solve all the poo poo the government can't manage, they might as well kick him out and call the shots instead of let some moron take credit. Or worse, give them impossible objectives/handicaps and make them look bad. One thing I learned about the military is that you can kill them by the bushel and they'll shrug it off, but make them look silly/weak and they'll go loving ballistic on you.
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Jul 2, 2018 21:57
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I was away from the internet for a bit but it seems like Lula was almost released today? I have no idea how it works but the justice system sure sounds fickle to me.
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Jul 8, 2018 18:44
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Symbolic Butt posted:I was away from the internet for a bit but it seems like Lula was almost released today? Hr's very likely not going to be freed, to the point that a first-instance judge openly refused a ruling by a superior court. It's a bondoggle. But yeah, brazilian law is intensely personalist and each judge basically rules as he or she chooses at that moment, even going against their own published papers and precedent to help one faction or screw another.
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Jul 8, 2018 19:47
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Military coup is comming I think
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Sep 17, 2018 15:30
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keppke posted:Military coup is comming I think Source?
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Sep 17, 2018 21:24
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https://www.redebrasilatual.com.br/politica/2018/09/ciro-diz-que-bolsonaro-e-seu-vice-propoes-explicitamente-um-golpe-de-estado
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Sep 18, 2018 17:54
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Well, Bolsofuckface did say, back in the 90s, he would support a military coup. https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/06/nos-anos-90-bolsonaro-defendeu-novo-golpe-militar-e-guerra.shtml
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Sep 18, 2018 18:03
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Do you guys think Bolsonaro has a real chance of winning the elections?
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Sep 18, 2018 19:27
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keppke posted:Do you guys think Bolsonaro has a real chance of winning the elections? He's the loving lead lol
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Sep 18, 2018 19:33
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keppke posted:Do you guys think Bolsonaro has a real chance of winning the elections? With Lula out, I think it his race to lose at this point. Economically, it is hard to see how things are going to work out considering the austerity measures already in place and the weakest of the Real.
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Sep 18, 2018 19:40
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Plutonis posted:He's the loving lead lol This, and the media and rich fucks have their knives out for anyone who compromises with the faintest social programs and spending. The stock market actually jumps up whenever his numbers improve, drops when they fall or one of his opponents gains, and tons of 'moderate' upper midlde class people are basically going "Well, I don't -like- him, but we gotta save the country from the commies". My parents included.
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Sep 18, 2018 20:56
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Yeah, every single one of my wife's family members who were rabid Aecio voters are now Bolsonaro voters. And sincerely, despite being a long time PT voter, I have to say that PT has royally hosed up this election cycle. It was beyond obvious since last year that the STF and the courts would do everything in their power to block Lula, and that Lula had no chance of running. But instead of using that period to at least raise Haddad's profile and tie him to Lula, PT essentially didn't have a plan B. So now the courts are blocking PT using a letter from Lula supporting Haddad in their ads, and despite Haddad growing fairly fast in the polls, it's far from what could have been.
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Sep 19, 2018 01:51
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joepinetree posted:Yeah, every single one of my wife's family members who were rabid Aecio voters are now Bolsonaro voters. Yeah, it seemed like self-sabotage. That said, the PT under Lula seemed to be pretty much focused on "changing the system from within" and eventually the system ate them.
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Sep 19, 2018 01:58
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joepinetree posted:Yeah, every single one of my wife's family members who were rabid Aecio voters are now Bolsonaro voters. Very true. But then again, thowing the spotlight onto Haddad would have made him a bigger target as well. There is something to be said for leaning into the whole injustice and blatant bias of the case against Lula; it's one of the reasons the party has not imploded in the last 3 years.
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Sep 19, 2018 02:13
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At least my family members who voted for Aécio all find Bolsonaro disgusting, with the exception of an uncle of mine who has a gay son living abroad. He accepted the kid coming out, but I am not sure their relationship is going to survive that one.
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Sep 19, 2018 02:22
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All the entertainment factor in these debates is in the hands of Cabo Daciolo* now that Bolsonaro's recovering from the stabbing. *Daciolo is a tinfoil-hat pastor type who got kicked out of a party because he wanted to change a line in the constitution: from "all power emanates from the people" to "all power emanates from God".
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Oct 1, 2018 02:41
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Did PSOL not do any research on him when they signed him up or did he actively try to deceive them?
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Oct 1, 2018 03:32
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Badger of Basra posted:Did PSOL not do any research on him when they signed him up or did he actively try to deceive them? I'm fairly sure they knew exactly what they were getting into, wanting to respect religions and all that. His original PSOL ad begins with him saying "God is in charge".
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Oct 1, 2018 05:08
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I can see them trying to run him as a way to get a bite of Rio's huge evangelical voter share. "Well, he seems to like social projects and stuff, he must have the whole fanaticism thing under control, right? Right?" Not smart and pretty ridiculous in retrospect, but eh, guess it was better than not trying.
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Oct 1, 2018 05:16
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