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Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling
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Ultra Carp

Cavauro posted:

the jacksonville jaguars
the cincinnati bengals
the oakland raiders
"the browns"

and yet the Lions continue to torment me

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Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

Cavauro posted:

the jacksonville jaguars
the cincinnati bengals
the oakland raiders
"the browns"

including the browns in that is cheating

why not go with the bills, who were a playoff team last year believe it or not

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.
Uh...welp...

Should we dust this baby off and see how dumb we all are?

I'll go first

"My Dumb Stupid rear end" posted:

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
2. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6*
3. NY Giants 8-8
4. Washington 6-10

Not too bad there.

"My Dumb Stupid rear end" posted:


1. Minnesota Vikings: 12-4
2. Green Bay Packers: 9-7
3. Detroit Lions: 7-9
4. Chicago Bears: 4-12

I got every slot in this whole division wrong

"My Dumb Stupid rear end" posted:


1. Atlanta Falcons: 12-4
2. New Orleans Saints: 10-6*
3. Carolina Panthers: 7-9
4. Tampa Bay Bucs: 3-13

I got every slot in this whole division wrong too. I think.

"My Dumb Stupid rear end" posted:


1. Los Angeles Rams: 13-3
3. Arizona Cardinals: 9-7
2. San Francisco 49ers: 8-8
4. Seattle Seahawks: 7-9

hosed this one up bad too. Rams were an easy pick.


"My Dumb Stupid rear end" posted:


1. New England Patriots: 11-5
2. New York Jets: 8-8
3. Buffalo Bills: 7-9
2. Miami Dolphins: 3-13

Just put NE in first place and roll the dice on the rest of this perennially God Awful division.


"My Dumb Stupid rear end" posted:


1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4
2. Baltimore Ravens: 9-7
3. Cleveland Browns: 6-10
4. Cincinnati Bengals: 5-11

Pretty loving close here. Overrated the Steelers.


"My Dumb Stupid rear end" posted:


1. Houston Texans: 11-5
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-6*
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9
3. Tennessee Titans: 6-10

Not too terrible. Called Houston and had the Colts getting better.


"My Dumb Stupid rear end" posted:


1. Denver Broncos: 10-6
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6*
1. Los Angeles Chargers: 9-7
3. Oakland Raiders: 5-11

Tried to mix in a surprise team and thought Keenum would help Denver.

"My Dumb Stupid rear end" posted:

Playoffs

1. Patriots
2. Steelers
3. Texans
4. Broncos
5. Jaguars
6. Chiefs

1. Rams
2. Vikings
3. Falcons
4. Cowboys

5. Saints

6. Eagles

So...7 out of 12 playoffs teams, my sleepers poo poo the bed entirely... Jacksonville and Minnesota hosed me over bad.

Moving on from here and using the teams I got right, I'm calling:

NFC Championship Game:
Rams vs. Saints

AFC Championship Game:
Texans vs. Patriots

Super Bowl:
Saints vs. Patriots

Super Bowl Champion:
New New Orleans Saints

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮

Edward Mass posted:

If Deshaun Watson is healthy, the Texans are going 13-3. If he's hurt, 3-13.

I'll call this 'mostly right'.

AutomaticPrince
Jun 14, 2013

AutomaticPrince posted:

The Colts make the playoffs.

The devil finally comes to collect on Tom Brady.

Eagles look unstoppable all year, one and done in the playoffs.

Watt gets hurt again, calls it a career.

Brees quietly breaks more records without the recognition while he and Kamara carry 51 other people on their backs.

A bold offseason expert pick to win the SB finally wins the SB.

Minus the "looking unstoppable all year" part on the Eagles one, all of mine still in play.

Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

Ches Neckbeard posted:

Browns: 3-13

Gordon relapses
Antonio Callaway steals a car and is arrested
Of Sashi's remaining 15 picks on the roster 6 will be cut and Corey Coleman will be traded for scraps
Hue Jackson will keep his hold over Jimmy Haslam and not be fired
Greg Robinson makes the team
Tyrod, Mayfield and Stanton go down to injury
Garrett gets 12 sacks

1/3 on QB injury
Callaway popped for possession and driving with a suspended license
RIP Josh Gordons career. Here's hoping you find sobriety some day.

Where I was wrong I am very pleased.

Darth Brooks
Jan 15, 2005

I do not wear this mask to protect me. I wear it to protect you from me.

Darth Brooks posted:

Mike McCarthy is the Browns 2019 head coach.


lol. I made this prediction because I was pissed at all the people predicting that Green Bay was going to win the division.

solarjetman
Jan 27, 2001

Fun Shoe
Sure. Let's. In parentheses are how many games I was off by.

solarjetman posted:

Probably fairly conventional but I went through the schedules / division vs division matchups and went with gut reactions.

AFC

NE 13-3 (2)
Mia 5-11 (2)
NYJ 4-12 (0)
Buf 2-14 (4)

Josh Allen may not be good, but he's far less of a disaster than I thought he'd be. Pats had some weird losses and Gronk seems depleted but I'd only be off by 1 on them and the 'phins if not for that lateral play.

solarjetman posted:

Pit 10-6 (.5)
Bal 7-9 (3)
Cin 7-9 (1)
Cle 4-12 (3.5)

Baltimore turned it around with LJ, and Cleveland turned it around without Hue, who I didn't think would actually get fired midseason. Cincinnatti losing one extra game with Dalton out half the season checks out. Also, ties!

solarjetman posted:


Ten 11-5 (2)
Jac 10-6 (5)
Hou 8-8 (3)
Ind 7-9 (3)

I liked Indy, but thought they were a year away. They were a half year away. Underestimated DeShaun. Overestimated the Mariota + Rams' ex-OC combo. Assumed basic competence from Jacksonville which was the same mistake everyone else made.

solarjetman posted:


KC 10-6 (2)
LAC 10-6 (1)
Den 9-7 (3)
Oak 5-11 (1)

Figured Mahomes+Reid would be decent, but not 50 TDs. I still think 9-7 was in play for Denver until Harris and Sanders got hurt.

AFC total wrongness: 36 games

solarjetman posted:

NFC

Phi 12-4 (3)
Was 8-8 (1)
Dal 5-11 (5)
NYG 4-12 (1)


Probably didn't do my homework on the Cowboys defense; plus, that Cooper trade really revived them. Perhaps underestimating Frank Reich is correlated with overestimating Philly.

solarjetman posted:

GB 12-4 (5.5)
Chi 10-6 (2)
Min 8-8 (.5)
Det 5-11 (1)

Somehow Aaron Rodgers played 15 games and turned it over 5 times and won 6 times. Chicago traded for Mack before this post so I can't use that as an excuse.

solarjetman posted:

NO 13-3 (0)
Atl 11-5 (4)
Car 10-6 (3)
Tam 3-13 (2)

Tampa's early friskiness, Atlanta's defensive injuries, and Cam's ineffectiveness after injury are basically the difference here.

solarjetman posted:

LAR 10-6 (3)
SF 10-6 (6)
Sea 9-7 (1)
Ari 4-12 (1)

Even with Jimmy G I'm not sure this was a 10 win caliber team. Too much CW belief there. I also thought the Rams would regress because of their Offseason Championship Trophy, and the fact that Wade's best years tend to be his first with the team, but McVay's scheme is ahead of the league at the moment. Take it from someone who watched Mike Shanahan slowly degrade: enjoy this while it lasts, Rams fans.

NFC wrongness: 39

solarjetman posted:


AFC Playoffs:
Jac (6) over Pit (3), LAC (5) over KC (4)
NE (1) over Jac (6), LAC (5) over Ten (2)
NE (1) over LAC (5)

NFC Playoffs:
Phi (3) over SF (6), LAR (4) over Atl (5)
NO (1) over LAR (4), GB (2) over Phi (3)
NO (1) over GB (2)

Super Bowl: Saints over Pats

Much of these fixtures are now irrelevant but I stand by Saints over Pats in the SB.

solarjetman posted:


Comments / more specific predictions
-Chicago will be about as good as Minnesota, but will their unique games (Tampa and NYG) are much much easier than Minnesota's (NO and Phi).

This was right in terms of those teams' records, but Minnesota beat Philly at the right time and Chicago lost to NY. Really I just underestimated Chicago.

solarjetman posted:


-Seattle will lose to the Broncos on Sunday but then beat the other 3 AFC West teams

They barely lost to LAC, but otherwise this was accurate.

solarjetman posted:

-The 2018 Bills QBs are worse then the 2017 Broncos QBs and will be statistically worse.

Today's game might have pulled Allen into the lead but a quick PFR check indicates this was true for passing stats. Allen's running was pretty great though.

solarjetman posted:

-I like Tennessee because I think their offensive coaching staff is getting much better and Mariota will make a leap. Their defense won't be good though and in a playoff matchup against a good offense, their inexperience will betray them.
-NE is winning the AFC basically by default, nobody else is very good. One day we will escape this hell
Still waiting on that escape.

solarjetman posted:

-I actually like the Broncos roster but VJ isn't good enough to get them past the better AFC or NFC West teams. They'll start strong and falter down the stretch, blowing their playoff chance in week 17 against the Chargers.

Instead they blew the Chiefs home game, no-showed the Jets game, stopped trying to move the ball at the 35 on a potentially game winning drive against Houston, upset the Chargers and Steelers which is when I thought they'd fade, and then everyone got hurt.

solarjetman posted:

-9 wins takes the AFCN; the coaching staffs are stale, Ben and Flacco are declining, Cleveland isn't making any kind of leap with Hue, and watching the Steelers O-Line turn on Bell does not give me confidence in their performance if/when he comes back.

Should I have seen Hue's firing and Flacco's benching coming? Maybe.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

Edward Mass posted:

I'll call this 'mostly right'.

Deshaun went from looking like possibly the future best QB in the league to borderline top 10 sadly

Nit Wit Dog Shit
Sep 28, 2000

Toilet Rascal

solarjetman posted:

...I also thought the Rams would regress because of their Offseason Championship Trophy, and the fact that Wade's best years tend to be his first with the team, but McVay's scheme is ahead of the league at the moment.

I agree with your Wade assessment, and wonder if he'll be back with the Rams in 2019.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

axeil posted:

Okay real prediction time

https://playoffpredictors.com/Footb...1%7Ctnptlw:true

AFC

AFC East
(3)Jets (8-8)
Patriots (7-9)
Dolphins (7-9)
Bills (6-10)

AFC North
(4)Steelers (8-8)
Ravens (7-9)
Bengals (6-10)
Browns (3-13)

AFC South
(1)Titans (12-4)
(5)Jaguars (11-5)
(6)Texans (11-5)
Colts (3-13)

AFC West
(2)Chiefs (11-5)
Raiders (10-6)
Chargers (9-7)
Broncos (5-11)


NFC

NFC East
(2)Eagles (11-5)
Cowboys (8-8)
Washington (6-10)
Giants (3-13)

NFC North
(3)Packers (11-5)
(6)Vikings (11-5)
Bears (6-10)
Lions (4-12)

NFC South
(1)Falcons (12-4)
(5)Saints (11-5)
Panthers (9-7)
Buccaneers (6-10)

NFC West
(4)Seahawks (10-6)
Rams (10-6)
Niners (9-7)
Cardinals (5-11)


Regular Season Thoughts

-Patriots finally fall off a cliff but no one can pick up the mantle in the East
-Steelers marred by injuries but manage to limp to the finish
-AFC South goes from laughingstock a few years ago to powerhouse + the Colts
-NFC is an absolute brawl and every single Week 17 game matters
-People are so pissed about the Rams, Niners, Panthers, Raiders and Chargers all not making it that the playoff format changes for 2019
-Mariota wins MVP
-Sam Darnold wins Rookie of the Year

Playoffs



Poor Andy Reid :negative:

Results:

AFC

East: dont count out touchdown Tom
North: correct if Mayfield doesn't throw that pick
South: lol no
West: I underestimated Mahomes and the Chargers, overestimated the Raiders

NFC

East: I *almost* got the order right and the Eagles are back in the playoffs at least?
North: not even close
South: I got the saints at least?
West: missed on there being 2 teams

Other predictions

The only one I got right is the Steelers being d and busted.

Diqnol
May 10, 2010

ELO Musk posted:

Browns go 8-8 as Mayfield to Gordon becomes a thing but is still not enough to mitigate the rest of the team's flaws, especially Mayfield being under pressure with the loss of Thomas.
Eagles go 10-6 and make it to the NFCCG and lose to the Green Bay Packers. They are the only NFCE team to make the playoffs.
Dak Prescott has another not-so-great season and the Cowboys end up with a 5-11 season, launching them into the QB hunt next draft.
Watson is not nearly as great as the hype would have you believe. Mahomes, however, exceeds the hype.
Derek Carr has another MVP-esque season and the Raiders end 8-8 because Gruden cannot coach anymore.
The Titans go 6-10. The Jaguars have a 12 win season. Bortles plays better than Mariota.
Tom Brady gets hurt 5 games into the season and for the first time in ever another AFCE team wins the division. I'm going with the Dolphins who surprise everyone with an energized Tannehill.
Joe Flacco is not the starting QB for the Ravens by the end of the season.
The Green Bay Packers win the superbowl led by a dominant performance by Aaron Rodgers and a great run by Jamaal Williams in the playoffs. The Chargers almost win, however.

ELO Musk posted:

One more: Carson Wentz will post a 4:1 TD/Int ratio and will not miss a game.

Browns: Half right. 7-8-1 is close to 8-8 but the gordon trade threw the other part into wrongness
Eagles 9-7 instead of 10-6. Losing to the packers idk but if they make the NFCCG then I count it right.
Dak did suck but the cowboys perservered anyway due to defense.
I was wrong about Watson but oh so right about Mahomes
LOL at my raiders guess though maybe I was right about Gruden
Totally wrong about Titans/Jags (bitch)
I was praying for the Brady/Dolphins thing but it was too cool an idea to happen
Right about Flacco
Wrong as gently caress about the Packers
Wentz posted a 3:1 instead and did miss a game. Oh well.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



My SB prediction was Falcons - Jaguars.

... losers were Patriots - Rams, so let's go with that.

Haha yikes, I just got every division wrong expect the AFC East was spot on, oof.

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barnold
Dec 16, 2011


what do u do when yuo're born to play fps? guess there's nothing left to do but play fps. boom headshot

Tiny Tubesteak Tom posted:

Pats gonna go 11-5, make the playoffs, lose in the AFCCG to some incredibly hilarious poo poo

gently caress yeah baby, first half of the prophecy complete

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