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I like your Ballyandy in the 2.10 but I've gone for Mill Green at longer odds and seven places. It was a tough call between the two for a single bet but the odds of Mill Green placing are higher than Ballyandy winning for me. Of course I'll look a fool in a few hours, but that's Cheltenham. I like Royal Kahala too. In the Mares Hurdle the rank outsider, Monishter Are Mwee is a horse I keep looking at. 200/1 would mean I could put a euro each way and be happy even if it stops to look at daisies. Otherwise it's Hors Piste for me, with the same logic as me going for Mill Green. The first I have no take on. The odds are far too short to even make a stab at it, even if it really is the 50:50 coinflip the market indicates. Otherwise it's Shan Blue, Celebre D'allen and Ain't That A Shame presuming I'm not on the bus for my bed by 5.30 for ATAS.
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Mar 17, 2022 10:40
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Well that was going to be even for the day but I put a flyer EW on Chambard in the last @ 33/1 two minutes before post so a  two days running!
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Mar 17, 2022 18:45
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Time for the big one! Gold Cup at 15.30 and the ground is drying a little, currently soft but no chance of any more rain 13.30 #12 Vauban @ 7/4 - This is a revenge race against #9 Pied Piper who beat him at Punchesdown at the end of last year, however Paul Townend is riding Vauban again and Pied Piper is ridden by Jack Kennedy today instead of Davy Russell when he won - though note Russell is riding #3 Fil Dor who came second to Vauban in Leopardstown earlier this year 14.10 #18 Top Bandit @ 14/1 - Betting EW on this one as he's won 4 of his last 5 and one of those is over 18 furlongs - this is 17 and the ponies with shorter odds have only been winning over 16.5f or shorter distances so look out for a late surge when the others tire 14.50 #10 Hillcrest @ 11/4 - Sticking with the favourite here, proven over the distance on heavy ground and quite heavily tipped - if you want a flyer try Ballygrifincottage EW @ 33/1 15.30 #6 Galvin @ 4/1 - Beat the favourite #2 A Plus Tard at Leopardstown by a shoulder at the end of last year. Backed by AP McCoy. This is the Gold Cup race as well so watch out for a ton of money going into A Plus Tard for Rachael Blackmore to win with a crowd behind her. Have also got a sweepstake ticket for #8 Protektorat which could be a lot worse! 16.10 #2 Billaway @ 9/4 - They are going to have to give Pat Mullins his full license by the end of this week as he's been creaming all of the amateur jockey races. Favourite again here 16.50 #7 Vienna Court @ 12/1 - Going for a flyer on the mares here, has won twice at Cheltenham over the distance on both Soft and Good-to-Soft ground 17.30 #2 Hollow Games @ 15/2 - A total bunfight to finish, fill your boots with whatever you've won during the day to give back to the bookies! Final disclosure I'm not a tipster, I've just been really lucky this week and most of the staking above is money won from my 33/1 flyer at the end of yesterday!
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Mar 18, 2022 09:56
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2.10 First Street e/w 2.50 Minella Cocooner e/w 3.30 Galvin 4.10 Bob and Co e/w 4.50 Concertista
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Mar 18, 2022 14:46
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First two races I bet in came in each way for me, and I put another ew for the last in Quinta Do Mar
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Mar 18, 2022 16:01
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What a fab last day of racing! Billaway squeaking through to win in the last stride and the aforementioned bunfight just coming in. Up 5u on the day thanks to Ballygrifincottage and the sweepie; was completely saved by the Skelton yard. + bookies for today's Mullins multiples and favourites though!
Doccykins fucked around with this message at 19:00 on Mar 18, 2022 |
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Mar 18, 2022 18:51
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Early look at the Grand National in two weeks, wouldn't put anything on until everyone declares but here's my longlist of horses that have won or placed over 30 or more furlongs in the last year Legend for non Horse people - C= Course, D = Distance, G = Going (Firm - Good-to-Firm - Good - Good-to-Soft - Soft - Heavy), P = Placed, SP = Starting Price, L = Lengths (of a horse behind the winner, or second place if won) code:Doccykins fucked around with this message at 10:42 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 10:32
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Shortlist after Monday's declarations, replaced SP of previous finish with today's current prices on the market, sorted by Current Price and * indicates Jockeys who have not declared their rides yet but were riding the horse when it placedcode:I've stuck Free Bets on Delta Work @ 8/1 Snow Leopardess @ 14/1 Minella Times @ 20/1 Burrow's Saint @ 25/1 Discorama EW 5 places @ 40/1 Blaklion EW 6 places @ 100/1 Next lines are Thursday when declarations are locked in to 40 + 4 reserves and then Saturday morning for the final field when I'll put some real money behind the counter Wednesday update: Snow Leopardess 12 -> 8/1, Farclas 22 -> 28/1, Blaklion 100 -> 80/1, more jockeys declared, Eclair Surf is now first reserve as 2 horses in the top 40 have withdrawn Doccykins fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Apr 6, 2022 |
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Apr 4, 2022 13:55
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Aintree Day One - Bit late with the picks so these won't be the best prices 13.45 #7 Gin on Lime @ 4/1 - First ride for Rachael Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead, would look out for #1 Erne River 14.20 #6 Petit Tonnerre @ 10/1 - Have a money back for 2nd/3rd/4th for this so reaching a little further out in hopes of an upset 14.55 #8 Protektorat @ 3/1 - Came in 3rd at the Gold Cup and favourite here 15.30 #1 Brewin'upastorm @ 7/1 - Neither of the two horses with shorter odds #7 Epatante and #6 Zanahiyr are proven at 2½ miles, could run out of puff before the end 16.05 #19 Myth Buster @ 16/1 - Amateur race so going with Pat Mullins despite being on an outsider, EW to 6 places 16.40 #3 Before Midnight @ 15/2 - #8 Frero Banbau and #15 Gunsight Ridge are shorter but their winners came on proper Heavy Ground, this is Good-to-Soft and Before Midnight has wins previously on Good 17.15 #7 Lady Excalibur @ 11/1 - Rachael Blackmore on a mare who won on this course in October, only stipulation is that this is a flat course so not as much volatility that could break in her favour Looking to the National, Eclair Surf is in due to 4 horses withdrawing this morning, congrats if you got money on when he was longer. Farclas was one of the withdrawals code:
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Apr 7, 2022 11:43
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Oof! First true gutterball for a while. Stay tuned tomorrow for more terrible horse race predictions!
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Apr 7, 2022 17:22
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Aintree Day Two, getting in early for tomorrow 13.45 #21 Mackenburg @ 25/1 - Starting off on an EW to 6 places, relatively light for his handicap, Brian Hughes riding and has won his last 3 14.20 #6 Jonbon @ 5/4 - Favourite here, only second came from a long way back from Constitution Hill at Cheltenham. Picked him before and doubling down here! 14.55 #2 Bravemansgame @ 11/8 - This is what the the 14.10 at Cheltenham Day 2 should have been but Bravemansgame got withdrawn because the ground was too heavy for him. Joint favourite with #4 L'Homme Press who won that race handily but there's nothing between them 15.30 #2 Captain Guinness @ 14/1 - Another Blackmore ride, my treble on her winning on every day is already dead but this was the best chance today. 16.05 #19 Fantastic Lady @ 14/1 - EW to 8 places, keep an eye on Blackmore/De Bromhead's #2 Notebook as this is over the Grand National course and riding heavy in the same way Minella Times will be for Saturday 16.40 #8 Gelino Bello @ 6/1 - Other two favourites #1 Banbridge and #12 Skytastic are unproven at 3 miles 17.15 #9 Washington @ 13/2 - Only going with this one because the claimless jockey has won on the horse unlike #13 Wizz Kid and #11 Severance, last of the day so unpredictable again!
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Apr 7, 2022 19:34
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Couple of wins there with Jonbon and Gelino Bello but still 15u down on the day and massively down on the week - tomorrow's the big one though! Aintree Day Three 13.45 #16 Serious Charges @ 9/1 - Won at distance and with Rex Dingle aboard 14.25 #11 Walking on Air @ 4/1 - Novices race so going with the flow here, I've learnt to trust the bookies at Aintree this week 15.00 #2 Edwardstone @ 8/11 - Riding that Tom Cannon hot hand, odds on favourite here as well 15.35 #3 Flooring Porter @ 15/8 - Another Cheltenham winner and a bawdy band of drunk hooligan owners to go with it 16.15 #17 Killer Kane @ 12/1 - Won his last two, one at this distance on Good ground -- Assuming it doesn't rain over Aintree overnight it should be good by tomorrow morning -- and lighter than any of the horses shorter than him, none of which fill me with confidence with regards to their form 17.15 #35 Blaklion @ 100/1 - The big one! The Grand National and time to poo poo or get off the pot. Have been quietly amassing a position in multiple horses over the last 2 weeks and being such a bunfight with #1 Minella Times and #31 Snow Leopardess being backed by the One Race A Year public I keep growing my position with Blaklion EW rather than picking a winner, firstly to 4 places, then 6, then 7. No confidence in anyone here, the National is a crowd favourite for a reason in that predicting a sure winner is next to impossible! Twist my arm and force me to pick an outright though and I'll have to say #2 Delta Work @ 11/1  18.20 #14 Rath Gaul Boy @ 7/2 - Normally I'd be contrarian and go for the Tom Cannon/Alan King #7 Ernest Gray but I need a second Willie Mullins trained win to pick up a double :p Final National Picks at 17.15 Delta Work @ 8/1 (free bet) Delta Work @ 11/1 (cash) Eclair Surf @ 12/1 (cash) Snow Leopardess @ 14/1 (free bet) Minella Times @ 20/1 (free bet) Burrow's Saint @ 25/1 (free bet) Discorama EW 5 places @ 40/1 (free bet) Blaklion EW 5 places @ 80/1 (cash) Blaklion EW 6 places @ 100/1 (free bet) Blaklion EW 7 places @ 50/1 (cash) Full Grand National Card
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Apr 8, 2022 17:56
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Well at least an EW on Delta Work clawed back a little but still waaayyy down for the Aintree festival. C'est la vie!
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Apr 9, 2022 23:04
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Kentucky Derby’s been drawn: 1. Mo Donegal (10-1) 2. Happy Jack (30-1) 3. Epicenter (7-2) 4. Summer is Tomorrow (30-1) 5. Smile Happy (20-1) 6. Messier (8-1) 7. Crown Pride (20-1) 8. Charge It (20-1) 9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1) 10. Zandon (3-1) 11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1) 12. Taiba (12-1) 13. Simplification (20-1) 14. Barber Road (30-1) 15. White Abarrio (10-1) 16. Cyberknife (20-1) 17. Classic Causeway (30-1) 18. Tawny Port (30-1) 19. Zozos (20-1) 20. Ethereal Road (30-1) Head says Taiba, heart says Cyberknife.
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May 2, 2022 20:05
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Edward Mass posted:Kentucky Derby’s been drawn: Just looking at those odds, Taiba is the kind of pick I would usually go for, too. Semi-favorite (really, 12/1 isn't even close, but when more than half the field is off at 20+) coming out of a middling gate. Big favorites do seem to take it as of late, though, so I'm probably gonna end up going with Zandon. Meh.
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May 2, 2022 22:16
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I'm tossing the California horses, Santa Anita has been a wasteland of short fields so who knows how they'll deal with the Derby mob. No big favorite so far, personally I'd take 5-1 on Epicenter all day long. Maybe throw in Smile Happy underneath for the exotic bets, he's finished 2nd behind Epicenter and Zandon this year and could improve in his 3rd start of the year.
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May 7, 2022 19:27
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Lol, Ford firing shots at Musk.
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May 7, 2022 21:46
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holy poo poo
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May 8, 2022 00:05
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Shades of Mine That Bird! Imagine getting into the Derby at the last minute and then winning the drat thing. The connections are a nice palate cleanser after the Baffert nonsense. Moktaro fucked around with this message at 00:31 on May 8, 2022 |
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May 8, 2022 00:15
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I did NOT see that result coming.
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May 8, 2022 04:28
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Only a field of nine for the Preakness Stakes this year, so I’d go heavy on Secret Oath.
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May 21, 2022 22:22
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Just in case anyone's still monitoring this subforum/thread I've got 4 on currently for this year's Grand National: #13 Gaillard Des Mesnil @ 11/1 #15 Les Milos @ 16/1 [This is the one I'm most interested in as it's Dan and Harry Skelton who have put Blaklion in for the last 3 years and placed with him in 2021] #22 Minella Trump @ 40/1 #35 Our Power @ 22/1 All EW of course as the National is too unpredictable to reliably pick the winner Maybe adding some more on tomorrow
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Apr 14, 2023 17:19
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Posts are out for the Kentucky Derby, and the 3-1 favorite Forte is in slot 15. Looking at the field, there seems to be no obvious longshots worth taking, which stinks.
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May 2, 2023 03:25
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Moktaro posted:Shades of Mine That Bird! Well this aged well after Reed turned out to be a right-wing asshat.  Anyway on to this year, I have a feeling the Japanese horses will do well but I don't have a favorite for the Derby. I do however have a little story about a race that just ran today: Rewind to 2020, in the wake of the lockdown Mill Ridge Farm started doing virtual tours on Facebook (also appear on Youtube at some point). Watching the foals growing up I noticed a black filly with an interesting face marking, it reminded me of the Malay Peninsula. Jump back to 2022 and the filly, now named Red Carpet Ready debuts with two straight wins at Churchill Downs, then wins her 2023 debut. She finished 3rd next time after running an insane 2nd quarter which knocked her off the Oaks trail, but she just won the Eight Belles stakes against a 1/5 favorite. Feels good to see that cute foal grow up to do well, just hope she makes it through her racing career ok to live a nice broodmare life.
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May 5, 2023 20:12
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Forte got scratched. This Kentucky Derby is cursed.
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May 6, 2023 17:43
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Also Chloe's Dream was euthanized, and another horse vanned off (supposedly without a dire injury but who knows), this is rediculous. EDIT: The other horse was also euthanized, jesus christ. 
Moktaro fucked around with this message at 21:09 on May 6, 2023 |
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May 6, 2023 20:53
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The Kentucky Horse Slaughter. They don't call it a derby for nothing.
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May 6, 2023 22:40
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And they're off E. 
RoastBeef fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Aug 26, 2023 |
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Aug 26, 2023 23:13
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Is this something someone can learn?
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Dec 4, 2023 21:05
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gay for gacha posted:Is this something someone can learn? Horse racing is probably the handicappers’ biggest sport of impact. With that being said, a savvy bettor CAN learn how to make informed bets by looking not just at the horse’s track record, but also the jockey, trainer, and owner. As someone who picked a trifecta before I could legally gamble, it’s possible for a layman to figure it out.
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Dec 7, 2023 05:13
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Edward Mass posted:Horse racing is probably the handicappers’ biggest sport of impact. With that being said, a savvy bettor CAN learn how to make informed bets by looking not just at the horse’s track record, but also the jockey, trainer, and owner. As someone who picked a trifecta before I could legally gamble, it’s possible for a layman to figure it out. I learned to read the forms (kind of) but I have no idea what I'm looking for. It seems like to me any data I can extract from the form is going to be extracted by anyone and everyone else. Any advice on where to start?
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Dec 7, 2023 10:45
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 02:29 |
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gay for gacha posted:I learned to read the forms (kind of) but I have no idea what I'm looking for. It seems like to me any data I can extract from the form is going to be extracted by anyone and everyone else. Any advice on where to start? That's kind of a hard question to answer. Apart from the variables of horses, you also have to account for track conditions and weather. While track conditions can easily be taken into account, weather is a crapshoot. Also, I don't see the issue with "anyone and everyone" getting the same information from race forms. As a sporting event, you're not going against another gambler - you're going against the house. Unless someone is friends with a jockey, they're not going to get any special information.
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Dec 10, 2023 19:43
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