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The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > 2022 Kentucky Derby
 
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Lincoln
May 12, 2007

Ladies.
The 148th Kentucky Derby is this weekend (Saturday, May 7), and it looks to be a competitive one.

I’m not a great handicapper, but the conventional wisdom has two groups of legitimate contenders:

code:
GROUP 1
3-1   ZANDON
7-2   EPICENTER

GROUP 2
8-1   MESSIER
10-1  MO DONEGAL
10-1  WHITE ABARRIO
12-1  TAIBA
I think the winner will come from one of these two groups. Yeah, I know, picking chalk is easy. But my point is there’s no major separation between horses within these two groups. Pick your winner, yes, but I think these are the horses you want to work into your exotic bets.

I think Taiba is undervalued at 12-1, and he should go off at somewhere between 8-1 and 10-1.

I think Epicenter is overvalued. The Louisiana Derby (his qualifying race) is long, but he had only one legitimate contender.

I think of group 2, Mo Donegal and Messier are best (in that order), and they may belong with Zandon and Epicenter. That said, any in Group 2 can win outright.

* # ? May 5, 2022 14:22
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# ? Apr 24, 2024 12:40
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Kull the Conqueror
Apr 8, 2006

Take me to the green valley,
lay the sod o'er me,
I'm a young cowboy,
I know I've done wrong
Can't wait to see the latest scandal spring out of this filthy sport on Saturday.

My partner's from KY so we're hosting a gathering for the first time since COVID. Derby pie, angel biscuits with country ham, and mint julips await.

* # ? May 5, 2022 16:31
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Vertical Lime
Dec 11, 2004

 the 80-1 shot won :dogstare:

* # ? May 8, 2022 00:07
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Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
 That dudes boxing a horse

* # ? May 8, 2022 00:07
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DC Murderverse
Nov 10, 2016

"Tell that to Zod's snapped neck!"

Bip Roberts posted:

That dudes boxing a horse

https://twitter.com/pftcommenter/status/1523077429056704517?s=21&t=cB3owOzW8PbBfc11wUc2VQ

* # ? May 8, 2022 00:14
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Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

Vertical Lime posted:

the 80-1 shot won :dogstare:

The favorites tried to chase Summer is Tomorrow on an absurdly fast pace and they just couldn't last the whole 10 furlongs. Rich Strike chilled and waited until the stretch run.

Rich Strike trying to eat his pony's face was highly amusing.

* # ? May 8, 2022 00:17
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ProperCauldron
Oct 11, 2004

nah chill
Any stories of people winning a stupid amount of money on a meme bet of the worst-odds horse?

* # ? May 8, 2022 00:22
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Lincoln
May 12, 2007

Ladies.
A winning $1 superfecta bet ( pick the top 4 horses in order) paid $321,500

* # ? May 8, 2022 01:13
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Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal

Lincoln posted:

A winning $1 superfecta bet ( pick the top 4 horses in order) paid $321,500

Gonna guess there were none unless some insane person did a super box with every combo lol

* # ? May 8, 2022 02:19
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# ? Apr 24, 2024 12:40
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kolby
Oct 29, 2004
 https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status/1523104042427334660

Turn the audio up. Best announcer in the biz
* # ? May 8, 2022 17:28
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The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > 2022 Kentucky Derby