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BIG HORNY COW posted:One problem with a no-fly zone is that the Libyan AA network would immediately be involved. If you want total air superiority its gonna involve SEAD and that means attacking ground targets - missile launchers and the associated radar systems, as well as static and self-propelled AA guns. According to this, Libya does have a somewhat capable air defense network, including a few SA-5s that could prove dangerous, but the question is how well integrated are they and how many of the Early Warning and Engagement Radars actually work. They do have some heavy equipment, but without the possibility of an operational SA-20, tactical SEAD shouldn't be a problem for just about any modern Air Force. You hit the few EW radars and fire control center vans they have operational and you pretty much take-out their entire SAM network, minus a few line-of-sight SAMs that may be manned. Stay above a certain altitude and MANPADS shouldn't be a problem. I'm a nerd.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:43
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Young Freud posted:So, that would mean that those Libyan AA guns would 1) not be chopping up large numbers of protesters and 2) be blown the gently caress up, preventing them from chopping up large numbers of protesters. Of course this is only speculation in the same vein as your own post, but the AA Gun(s) used in slaying protesters won't be wheeled back into air defense positions, they're not mobile SAM launchers and won't stop firing on protesters any earlier than any other weapons system, they're really just large gun platforms on the back of trucks. They will blend in fairly well. The initial strike to gain air supremacy would surely kill missiles and radar guided guns first? Once again, just stating speculation.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:44
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Wow, what that guy just said about Quadaffi and the African Union on AJE. Talking about how the rest of Africa aren't speaking up in any way because A) Most of the regimes in power owe it because of his financing, and B) they're afraid of him because of A. So much oil gives so much power.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:44
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Kaymaster posted:According to this, Libya does have somewhat capable air defense network, including a few SA-5s that could prove dangerous, but the question is how well integrated are they and how many of the Early Warning and Engagement Radars actually work. They do have some heavy equipment, but without the possibility of an operational SA-20, tactical SEAD shouldn't be a problem for just about any modern Air Force. You hit the few EW radars and fire control center vans they have operational and you pretty much take-out their entire SAM network, minus a few line-of-sight SAMs that may be manned. Stay above a certain altitude and MANPADS shouldn't be a problem. AJE live blog quote:1:55am: Peru becomes the first country to formally severe all diplomatic ties with Libya. President Alan Garcia said: Peru why you gotta make me love you? Edit// The problem with the point on air defenses is it presumes the air defenses over the protesters are in the hands of forces Loyal to Gaddafi. That may(or is probably) true in Tripoli, but I doubt it's true in Benghazi or the east in general. Really though I hope anyone planning for the eventuality is able to get a lot more information on the situation in country. farraday fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Feb 23, 2011 |
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Feb 23, 2011 01:45
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Nenonen posted:He's unique, but nobody could challenge the fashion sense of the late Zaire dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. Is that a pimp or a church grandma
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Feb 23, 2011 01:45
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Another issue - can't really strike AA systems in urban areas without making a mess. JDAMs and HARMs are precise weapons but they're not some magical laser that's not going to gently caress up anything around the target. US/NATO/EU planes conducting air strikes in Libyan Metropolitan areas is no bueno.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:47
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Cjones posted:Three hours I'd guess Less than an hour for fighter jets. Italy could easily send carriers over too.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:47
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Craiglen posted:Less than an hour for fighter jets. This would only occur as part of a NATO move.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:48
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farraday posted:Edit// The problem with the point on air defenses is it presumes the air defenses over the protesters are in the hands of forces Loyal to Gaddafi. That may(or is probably) true in Tripoli, but I doubt it's true in Benghazi or the east in general. Really though I hope anyone planning for the eventuality is able to get a lot more information on the situation in country. Yeah, very true. Unfortunately, radar blips won't tell you who is manning the SAMs.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:49
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So, once the novelty of protesting wears off, is the global spread for Democracy going to spread? Or will it really take some time to see if these new nations prosper under democratic rule? Can we see movements like this in other parts of the world? Is China at all afraid of democracy spreading like Communist states of the past have?
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Feb 23, 2011 01:50
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Kaymaster posted:Yeah, very true. Unfortunately, radar blips won't tell you who is manning the SAMs. I'd kind of doubt they're being manned at all. Air defenses aren't usually a huge priority in a violent internal rebellion. If eastern Libya starts to organize it may become a concern.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:51
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why isn't donald rumsfeld in jail yet? let me say that again WHY ISN'T DONALD RUMSFELD IN JAIL YET?
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Feb 23, 2011 01:52
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Vladimir Putin posted:Can fighter jets from Italy loiter for extended periods of time over Libya? I was thinking that an aircraft carrier would need to be parked off the coast and jets scrambled when something is picked up by radar. They do have tanker planes, like all of the main NATO countries. But I'm not sure how well prepared they would be for such a mission on a short notice for an undefined period of time. Jet fighters require continuous maintenance, it's no good to declare a no-fly zone if after a week all planes are grounded due to wear and tear. Craiglen posted:Italy could easily send carriers over too. Italy has two carriers but they carry helicopters and Harrier VTOL fighters. Harrier is not the best choice for this kind of mission, and Italy only has a dozen or so anyway. They wouldn't last for long in a 24/7 air superiority mission. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Feb 23, 2011 |
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Feb 23, 2011 01:53
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Nenonen posted:They do have tanker planes, like all of the main NATO countries. But I'm not sure how well prepared they would be for such a mission on a short notice for an undefined period of time. Jet fighters require continuous maintenance, it's no good to declare a no-fly zone if after a week all planes are grounded due to wear and tear. If you take into account all the NATO fighters and strike aircraft within a few hours of Libya (France, Italy and Greece) there's more than enough to keep a round the clock no-fly zone enforced.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:58
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Sivias posted:Wow, what that guy just said about Quadaffi and the African Union on AJE. Talking about how the rest of Africa aren't speaking up in any way because A) Most of the regimes in power owe it because of his financing, and B) they're afraid of him because of A. Libya is still a member of the UN Human Rights Council. It's hilarious/sad how everyone on the right and left the world over was willing to put up with Quadaffi
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Feb 23, 2011 02:01
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Talk of the details of a no fly zone is kind of pointless, I've just realized. China and/or Russia would never let it pass the Security Council. They're too afraid of the precedent they will set when one day they might be blowing up their own protesting citizens. Russia, maybe not, but China is probably looking at all of this and taking notes for the future.
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Feb 23, 2011 02:09
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Vladimir Putin posted:Talk of the details of a no fly zone is kind of pointless, I've just realized. China and/or Russia would never let it pass the Security Council. They're too afraid of the precedent they will set when one day they might be blowing up their own protesting citizens. Russia, maybe not, but China is probably looking at all of this and taking notes for the future. Also, they wouldn't want to lose one of their best customers, should he - for whatever reason - actually win and put down the revolution. edit: Kaymaster posted:According to this, Libya does have a somewhat capable air defense network, including a few SA-5s that could prove dangerous, but the question is how well integrated are they and how many of the Early Warning and Engagement Radars actually work. They do have some heavy equipment, but without the possibility of an operational SA-20, tactical SEAD shouldn't be a problem for just about any modern Air Force. You hit the few EW radars and fire control center vans they have operational and you pretty much take-out their entire SAM network, minus a few line-of-sight SAMs that may be manned. Stay above a certain altitude and MANPADS shouldn't be a problem. BIG HORNY COW fucked around with this message at 02:20 on Feb 23, 2011 |
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Feb 23, 2011 02:15
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Al-Saqr posted:I felt like trying my hand at a political drawing so I sketched this up quick. I know this was a few pages back, but this is awesome. Please do more. If push came to shove, China wouldn't give a poo poo what the UN said, but I can see what is being said about setting a precedent (wouldn't want to set one where governments can get punished or anything). Besides, the whole world is so hooked on their cheap poo poo that the Western governments and all the people who shop at Walmart will come out in support of keeping children enslaved to make their crap.
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Feb 23, 2011 02:30
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Steve Yun posted:Is that a pimp or a church grandma Okay, that is funny.
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Feb 23, 2011 02:51
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I like how the news channels are acting like he's already dead, playing all this "life of the dictator" poo poo, and really, how could he cling on to power? Too many people have declared openly against him, and they know how bloodthirsty he is. He's a ruthless dictator who has fled his capital city; we know what happens to them.
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Feb 23, 2011 02:52
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Magellanicice9 posted:I know this was a few pages back, but this is awesome. Please do more. One major issue for China is Taiwan ("Chinese Taipei"). In a theoretical conflict over Taiwan, China does not want to legitimize in any way a UN doctrine of intervention. A secondary issue is the putting down of revolt. We all remember Tienanmen Square. China does not want to legitimize in any way the idea that the international community has a mandate to protect protesters from being run over by tanks.
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Feb 23, 2011 02:56
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Sivias posted:Can we see movements like this in other parts of the world? Is China at all afraid of democracy spreading like Communist states of the past have? Democracy and Communism are in separate categories.
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Feb 23, 2011 02:59
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For the future as more and more mobile communications technology becomes available the world over it will be increasingly harder for any minority elite to exert strict control on a majority population without popular support. We're simply hitting an early saturation point thanks to affordable smart phones. Look at these protests and imagine what they'll be like in a few years time when focus-free laser pico-projectors are built into phones so you can throw up a 10' screen on nearly any surface in a public place. What exactly would happen if a group obtained footage of Tienanmen Square and projected it in multiple public areas around China on the anniversary? Imagine a city centre on a winter evening and suddenly the wall of a store lights up with footage while a car driving past begins playing a voice-over through a megaphone explaining the short clip. Or even the state of the villages surrounding the factories where they make Apple products.
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Feb 23, 2011 03:02
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monkeytennis posted:There were protestors on Whitehall today, right opposite Downing Street, here are a couple of phone pics I got as I was walking down there with the family: Nice to see the ice cream truck responding so quickly.
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Feb 23, 2011 03:04
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WTF is going on? Can someone explain to me cause I am baffled.
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Feb 23, 2011 03:06
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Might want to turn on PBS for frontline's report on Egypt. Saw clips of it earlier and they had some spectacular shots of the revolution.
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Feb 23, 2011 03:06
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Asking this now, will someone shoot him? They are calling for it on the street.
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Feb 23, 2011 03:09
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Ghetto Prince posted:I like how the news channels are acting like he's already dead, playing all this "life of the dictator" poo poo, and really, how could he cling on to power? Too many people have declared openly against him, and they know how bloodthirsty he is. Any confirmation on where Gadaffi is? I thought that the epic ramble which he delivered today was filmed at his bombed-during-the-Reagan-years house in southern Tripoli, and that means that he's still in the capital...
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Feb 23, 2011 03:14
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Within golf cart range I'd say.
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Feb 23, 2011 03:19
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In what loving universe does a guy log onto GBS to check the status of a historical revolution? This one, apparently. Thanks by the way
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Feb 23, 2011 03:29
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Why are the children of dictators always such assholes?
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Feb 23, 2011 03:30
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BIG HORNY COW posted:The problem with this is that it goes from "providing support" to a major military operation involving hundreds of sorties and strikes against ground targets. The only group who can realistically pull this off is the US Military (and the Israelis but that is COMPLETELY out of the question). I imagine that both the RAF and the French could do it if pushed, actually, but we both have our own post-colonial issues that would make intervening pretty dodgy. Like, for instance, half of Libya's recent military kit was provided by one or the other (those fighters that defected were Mirages).
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Feb 23, 2011 03:32
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Vladimir Putin posted:Why are the children of dictators always such assholes? It's like how most kids isolated from others become assholes. Also because their parents literally can have people killed for them if needed and any other whim satisfied as well.
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Feb 23, 2011 03:33
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The fear of protests for democracy is spreading and making the other regressive governments take notice:quote:It's fifth time lucky for Red Shirt leaders http://www.todayonline.com/World/EDC110223-0000199/Its-fifth-time-lucky-for-Red-Shirt-leaders?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter "Kill people faster! They're disturbing our workers who are busy stealing your oil!!!" quote:
http://news.oneindia.in/2011/02/23/chinaurges-libya-to-restore-socialstability-aid0126.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter Gaddahfi's reign of terror may not be over, but already the Libyan people are freer than they've been in the last 40 years: quote:In "Free Libya," the people are laughing at Muammar Gaddafi as he goes on and on in a speech, dressed in a traditional outfit called a jard. A dozen men gathered in a roadside cafeteria in the town of Tobruk, about 100 miles from the Egyptian border, to watch the spectacle in one of the few buildings lit up on Tuesday night. The towns here are poorer and sparser than their Egyptian counterparts. But the locals now have the luxury of poking fun at the man who once had the power of life-or-death over them. "He has a hole in his shirt," one said. "Now he is a poor man!" another shouted. They all laughed. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2053198,00.html Some interesting speculation from an unnamed secret source. While it's unconfirmed, it's likely to be correct: quote:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2052961,00.html And a little non-violent news that has nothing to do with the protests. I'm not familiar with this author but I'll bet that you Brits are: quote:Book lovers who have long thirsted for more "lashings of ginger beer" or further "jolly japes" could be in for an unexpected treat – more than 40 years after the death of Enid Blyton. http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2011/feb/23/enid-blyton-manuscript-found?CMP=twt_fd It sounds like a pretty good children's book. 
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Feb 23, 2011 03:40
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CNN is reporting that Libya's Interior Minister resigned. http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/22/libya.protests/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1 CNN posted:Libya's interior minister said Wednesday he has quit the government and is supporting the protesters, who he predicted will achieve victory in "days or hours."
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Feb 23, 2011 03:47
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quote:There's been virtually no reliable information coming out of Tripoli, but a source close to the Gaddafi regime I did manage to get hold of told me the already terrible situation in Libya will get much worse. Among other things, Gaddafi has ordered security services to start sabotaging oil facilities. They will start by blowing up several oil pipelines, cutting off flow to Mediterranean ports. The sabotage, according to the insider, is meant to serve as a message to Libya's rebellious tribes: It's either me or chaos. He starts blowing up oil pipelines it might make an intervention more likely
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Feb 23, 2011 04:00
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quote:Pressed, my Libyan source acknowledged Gaddafi is a desperate, irrational man, and his threats to turn Libya into another Somalia at this point may be mostly bluffing. On the other hand, if Gaddafi in fact enjoys the loyalty of troops he thinks he has, he very well could take Libya to the brink of civil war, if not over. Unlike Somalia, it seems that the people of Libya have found their identity in the country. An identity opposed to him.
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Feb 23, 2011 04:12
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Vladimir Putin posted:Talk of the details of a no fly zone is kind of pointless, I've just realized. China and/or Russia would never let it pass the Security Council. They're too afraid of the precedent they will set when one day they might be blowing up their own protesting citizens. Russia, maybe not, but China is probably looking at all of this and taking notes for the future. China's vetoed 6 times in the history of the UNSC, all directly related to their interests. They'd probably just abstain.
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Feb 23, 2011 04:18
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Oh man I'm seeing vision of $150+ dollar barrels of oil again. That idiot is going to wreck the entire world economy if he smashes Libya's oil supplies!
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Feb 23, 2011 04:19
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You gotta love China and Russia dragging their heels on a hollow and ultimately meaningless UN condemnation of CQ - wouldn't want to look like, god forbid, HYPOCRITES when your brutalize your own populations further down the road, would you?
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Feb 23, 2011 04:21
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