Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Vladimir Putin: Mar 17, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Sivias posted:

Is it likely that oil prices will go back down? I don't think people are fully appreciating the impact of these revolts.

Well they will go back down once business operations go back to normal. Whenever that is.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:36

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# ? Apr 18, 2024 19:21

Thrust On Moore: Jul 13, 2010; She keeps coming closer,
Saying "I can feel it in my bones.
Schizophrenia,
Is taking me home."

I think this was probably my favorite part of Gaddafi's speech:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/24/libya.protests/index.html?hpt=T1 posted:

"I have only moral authority," he said, adding, "We have 3 million Libyans -- they run the country."

It was unclear what Gadhafi's reference to 3 million was. Libya's population is 6.5 million, according to the CIA World Factbook.

At first I thought he was just exorcising his senility again, but someone in IRC pointed out he was likely just referring to the men. Yeah, you lay that Misogyny on, you crazy diamond.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:45

rare Magic card l00k: Jan 3, 2011

Is there an IRC chat for this thread that I missed? If so I'll feel really silly.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:49

breaklaw: May 12, 2008

drat, could it be over already?

US Cannot Confirm Rumors Gaddafi Shot; Oil Tumbles

quote:

CNBC Posted: A senior official told NBC News that the U.S. government cannot confirm rumors circulating online that Gaddafi is dead, after traders cited the as reason for falling oil prices.

Crude prices plummeted near the end of the session, with U.S. light crude futures settling down 85 cents at $97.25. Crude futures were down more than $2 in post-settlement trade.

Answers the "will oil prices go down?" question I guess.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:50

Sarah Bellum: Oct 21, 2008

8.10pm GMT: Another update from Reuters on the Gaddafi death rumour that pushed down oil prices:

There was no immediate indication of where the rumour had originated or any news report to substantiate it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/blog/2011/feb/24/gaddafi-speech-libya-turmoil-live-reaction

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:53

DevNull: Apr 4, 2007; And sometimes is seen a strange spot in the sky
A human being that was given to fly

breaklaw posted:

drat, could it be over already?

US Cannot Confirm Rumors Gaddafi Shot; Oil Tumbles

Answers the "will oil prices go down?" question I guess.

Someone probably read about Suleiman being shot at and the rumor just snowballed into Gaddafi being dead.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/201122410395823677.html

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:55

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

THE HORSES rear end posted:

Once Gaddafi is gone, I wonder what the effect will be on Iran. The Green movement was an incredibly brave and and righteous cause, but the Libyan uprising makes the Green movement look tame by comparison. The Libyans will have demonstrated that even brutal crackdowns aren't always sufficient to stop an uprising. The Iranian youth might be forced to ask themselves how much they really want freedom, and just how much they are willing to risk.

On a related note, back in 2009, a few days before Ahmadinejad's "fake but accurate" election that inspired the original Iranian uprising, a friend of mine in Iran sent me a video with her name attached to a pro-democracy message and requested that I upload it.

A few days ago I received a message from someone in Iran saying that "she discovered her name in an internet search next to the video, and that she was really scared for her life because she didn't make the video but shared the same exact name of someone who did." She requested I change the name, which I immediately did. I tried to contact this person, but her channel was deleted.

I recently found out my Iranian friend has two facebook accounts - one for personnal used, the other on which he supports pro-democracy/protest groups. The second one uses his first name and "Green [omega symbol]" as a last name, to make it harder for them to identify him. The lengths that they go to to avoid being identified as protesters online is surprising to say the least.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:55

Spiky Ooze: Oct 27, 2005; Bernie Sanders is a friend to my planet (pictured)

click the shit outta^

Stock gets sold off on the slightest rumor all the time, it really means nothing yet.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:56

Nuclear Spoon: Aug 18, 2010

Great White Hope posted:

Is there an IRC chat for this thread that I missed? If so I'll feel really silly.

#tahrir on irc.synirc.net

Can this be put at the top of the OP?

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:56

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Doubtful that rumor is true.

WSJ article from al-Bayda.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704520504576162710080404774.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories posted:

AIDA, Libya�A day after the last forces loyal to besieged Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi in the country's east were defeated, this coastal town's elders met to begin rebuilding.

Masouda al-Alamy, a distinguished professor of animal science at the city's Omar Mukhtar University, called the meeting to order on Wednesday, her voice cracking with emotion. "Today, we meet and can speak freely for the first time," she said. "For the first time we feel we are free."

Around 200 locals, including tribal sheikhs, university professors and prominent businessmen, met in a town meeting hall with green plush seats. It was built in the time of the monarchy to house the Libyan parliament, but more recently it was the meeting place for the town's Revolutionary Peoples' Committee, the closest thing Libyans have had to representative government under Mr. Gadhafi.

"We were a hopeless people, an immoral country forgotten to the world, and in three days all that has changed," said Abdullah Mortady, an architect. "For 42 years we didn't speak. For 42 years this whole country was only for one man and his sons."

Top items on the agenda at the meeting included forming committees to take charge of security, food and fuel distribution, reopening schools, and collecting weapons pillaged during the protests. Another key challenge facing these elders: how to rein in the revolutionary zeal of the region's youth, charged with emotion after days of violent battle culminating in a historic victory.

Mr. Mortady came home on the first night of the uprising to find his 16- and 19-year-old sons gone. His worried wife told him they were in the streets protesting. When they returned home well after midnight, they were both armed with guns from pillaged police stations.

"I was very scared, but now I'm quite proud," Mr. Mortady said.

Like youth all over eastern Libya, Mr. Mortady's sons had transformed themselves from peaceful protesters into armed pro-democracy rebels in a period of about 48 hours. That is a worrying specter for many of the town's elders, who fear a breakdown of law and order now that police and army forces have been replaced with bands of young revolutionaries.

The elders stepped in quickly to take responsibility for the hundreds of pro-Gadhafi soldiers captured by the young pro-democracy fighters in recent days. Masoud Abdullah, a professor of management science at the local university, and his older cousin, a prominent tribal leader in the area, were among those who called an urgent meeting to decide what they were going to do after the first batch of prisoners were taken Saturday morning.

"The young people wanted to kill them, and we said no way," Mr. Abdullah said.

Outside that meeting, angry youth had heckled their elders. "They called us hypocrites and traitors," Mr. Abdullah said. "One kid yelled at me, 'They killed my two brothers. How can you forgive them?' "

On Wednesday morning, the pro-democracy fighters' anger was still evident. At Baida's airport, the site of some of the fiercest fighting of the uprising in eastern Libya, 30-year-old ambulance driver Tareq Tajori pointed to dried bloodstains on the asphalt outside the terminal. "That was my friend," he said. "They shot him. Now they need to be shot."

But when the elders ordered restraint, the youth obeyed, thanks to a strong tribal order that still holds sway here, and which many say will help ensure order as Mr. Gadhafi's government melts away. "When the tribes say stop, the youth stop," Mr. Abdullah said.

Among those who have assumed a prominent role in Baida is Mr. Gadhafi's former Minister of Justice Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, who resigned when firing on protesters began.

But other figures associated with Mr. Gadhafi's government are less welcome. When a group of town leaders retreated to a private annex on Wednesday, a shouting match erupted. They grabbed one man by the collar and ejected him from the room.

"He worked for the secret police," said Hassan Abdel Razaq, among those in the meeting. "He used to send reports for the intelligence service on all the townspeople. There will be no place for people like him in the new country we are building."

The prisoners taken during the uprising, which in Baida number around 300, are being held in secret locations around the town to keep them out of the hands of youths seeking revenge. On Wednesday, a group of Western journalists was taken to one of those locations, an elementary school on the town's outskirts.

The three-car convoy, trying to shake a car driven by unknown youngsters, wound in and out of side roads, made U-turns, split up and rejoined. "We are very worried," said Ahmed Jabreel, a Libyan diplomat until recently posted to the United Nations in New York, who is now on the side of the pro-democracy rebels in Baida. "People are very angry here and they want revenge, but this is not our way."

At the school, a few young men with heavy machine guns and ammunition slung around their necks stood sentry.

About 100 prisoners, some bandaged, lay sprawled shoulder to shoulder on mattresses in the school's classrooms. Most of the prisoners spoke Arabic and said they were from Libya, while four said they were from Chad.

The elders said they were contacting detainees' families and tribal leaders to come pick them up. "We are not killers," said Mr. Abdel-Jalil, the former justice minister. "Gadhafi made us killers."

# ? Feb 24, 2011 21:57

Dyscrasia: Jun 23, 2003; Give Me Hamms Premium Draft or Give Me DEATH!!!!

breaklaw posted:

drat, could it be over already?

US Cannot Confirm Rumors Gaddafi Shot; Oil Tumbles

Answers the "will oil prices go down?" question I guess.

poo poo, why did I fill up my car just 3 hours ago!

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:02

Mr Plow: Dec 31, 2004

quote:

The elders said they were contacting detainees' families and tribal leaders to come pick them up. "We are not killers," said Mr. Abdel-Jalil, the former justice minister. "Gadhafi made us killers."

Having captured murderers, or POWs if you want to be extremely generous and loose with your terminology, get picked up by their relatives during an on-going civil war sounds like a terrible idea.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:07

DarkCrawler: Apr 6, 2009; by vyelkin

Bin Laden must be sitting in a cave somewhere in Pakistan, watching TV and going all "...what?"

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:07

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

So oil prices dropped at a rumor of Gaddafi's death. What will happen if those rumors are false? Will they shoot up just as quickly? Exponentially? If the Libyan revolution is successful and the riots spread, will the oil continue to rise?

Again, I don't think people are giving the full appreciation of what is happening over there.

Ignoring the real impact of events in order to keep prices at a stable level is just as damaging as jumping to conclusions.

Sivias fucked around with this message at 22:10 on Feb 24, 2011

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:08

Vladimir Putin: Mar 17, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Sivias posted:

So oil prices dropped at a rumor of Gaddafi's death. What will happen if those rumors are false? Will they shoot up just as quickly? Exponentially? If the Libyan revolution is successful and the riots spread, will the oil continue to rise?

Again, I don't think people are giving the full appreciation of what is happening over there.

The only thing I think matters is if Saudi Arabia is destabilized. Gas will go above $4.00 per gallon and the US will hit a double dip recession.

Anything else, I think is whatever.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:10

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

It's generally decided that unrest in Saudi is unrealistic. Then again, no one thought Libya would see this type of revolution.

Bahrain/Iran is the next nations of concern with these revolutions as they are the next largest segments of stability in a very precarious region.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:12

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

What is more, alternative fuels etc. are close enough to market that if they had extended periods of high prices, the Great Chain of Industry would in fact cause a permanent decline of their market.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:12

Vladimir Putin: Mar 17, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Sivias posted:

It's generally decided that unrest in Saudi is unrealistic. Then again, no one thought Libya would see this type of revolution.

Bahrain/Iran is the next nations of concern with these revolutions as they are the next largest segments of stability in a very precarious region.

Iran is an interesting case. When the Green Revolution was underway, I didn't recall oil price3s jumping appreciably.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:15

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Iran has no direct impact in the price of Oil no, but indirectly, it has a huge impact.

If Iran's government falls, Syria and the west bank can very easily become a very chaotic environment. The West bank just yesterday saw a rocket fired into Israel and retaliating bombing soon after. Saudi Arabia has grave concerns that if Bahrain falls, it will fall into the hands of Iranian political control. (Or at least the sectarian upheaval is of great concern).

Instability causes fear. Fear is directly connected to the price of oil. We see it all the time. A cricket hiccups on an oil rig and everyone pays 4 cents more at the pump.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:21

csm141: Jul 19, 2010; i care, i'm listening, i can help you without giving any advice; Pillbug

Vladimir Putin posted:

Iran is an interesting case. When the Green Revolution was underway, I didn't recall oil price3s jumping appreciably.

There's a difference between violent protests and civil war. We could see some pipelines getting blown up by Gaddafi's men before this is over.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:22

Earwicker: Jan 6, 2003

Vladimir Putin posted:

Iran is an interesting case. When the Green Revolution was underway, I didn't recall oil price3s jumping appreciably.

The Green Revolution protests got a decent amount of media coverage but I don't think they were anywhere near as extensive as what's happening in Libya. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think the Iranian protesters were confined largely to a certain demographic of the youth (and I think, more well off youth) in Tehran while the rest of the country didn't really join in. Whereas in Libya the protesters are actually taking control of large areas of the country and unrest is everywhere.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:36

Vladimir Putin: Mar 17, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Sivias posted:

Iran has no direct impact in the price of Oil no, but indirectly, it has a huge impact.

If Iran's government falls, Syria and the west bank can very easily become a very chaotic environment. The West bank just yesterday saw a rocket fired into Israel and retaliating bombing soon after. Saudi Arabia has grave concerns that if Bahrain falls, it will fall into the hands of Iranian political control. (Or at least the sectarian upheaval is of great concern).

Instability causes fear. Fear is directly connected to the price of oil. We see it all the time. A cricket hiccups on an oil rig and everyone pays 4 cents more at the pump.

I think it's a little bit overplayed. People are getting bombed and machine gunned in Libya, a key producer of sweet, light, crude, and I think gas at the pump went up like 5-6 cents during the whole thing.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:37

Vladimir Putin: Mar 17, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Earwicker posted:

The Green Revolution protests got a decent amount of media coverage but I don't think they were anywhere near as extensive as what's happening in Libya. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think the Iranian protesters were confined largely to a certain demographic of the youth (and I think, more well off youth) in Tehran while the rest of the country didn't really join in. Whereas in Libya the protesters are actually taking control of large areas of the country and unrest is everywhere.

The point I was trying to make was that for whatever reason there wasn't a direct connect between unrest in Iran and the price of oil.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:38

Earwicker: Jan 6, 2003

Vladimir Putin posted:

The point I was trying to make was that for whatever reason there wasn't a direct connect between unrest in Iran and the price of oil.

Right and what I'm saying is that if the unrest in Iran was nearly as extensive as the unrest in Libya, there might well have been. As much as I applaud the bravery of those who were protesting in Iran, I don't think the regime was in any real danger. Gaddafi on the other hand is much more likely on the way out, and it's pretty clear that he intends to take a lot of his country's infrastructure - and population - with him.

Earwicker fucked around with this message at 22:42 on Feb 24, 2011

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:40

Poke: Mar 1, 2004

Last week a gallon of regular unleaded was $2.99 at the Shell gas station in front of my house. Now it's $3.30. What the gently caress? Is Libyan oil that important to the rest of the world?

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:40

Settepotet: Jul 10, 2009

Switzerland freezes all Gaddafi assets.

Well, that's something.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:41

YouTuber: Jul 31, 2004; by FactsAreUseless

DarkCrawler posted:

Bin Laden must be sitting in a cave somewhere in Pakistan, watching TV and going all "...what?"

More like he is rubbing his hands in delight. Iran could have turned out to be a pretty nice Democratic country if the rear end in a top hat religious extremist didn't derail the revolution and that the country over for themselves.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:42

Vladimir Putin: Mar 17, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Poke posted:

Last week a gallon of regular unleaded was $2.99 at the Shell gas station in front of my house. Now it's $3.30. What the gently caress? Is Libyan oil that important to the rest of the world?

As far as I know, Libya is a key supplier of sweet light crude mostly to European buyers. America gets most of its SLC from Nigeria and some other mish mash of African and South American sources. The key thing is that if things get too out of hand in Libya, European buyers may have to turn to other sources, i.e. Nigeria etc... and it drives up demand and prices for American buyers.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:43

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Poke posted:

Last week a gallon of regular unleaded was $2.99 at the Shell gas station in front of my house. Now it's $3.30. What the gently caress? Is Libyan oil that important to the rest of the world?

That's EXACTLY my point! It's not! It's very easily to refine, but only makes up 2% of the worlds oil supply. 2% and we saw a what, 10% rise in fuel prices? And the oil supply didn't even stop. The fields aren't burning. The rigs haven't shut down. The infrastructure is still intact.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:45

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

This is all probably driven by a bunch of casino gamblers rolling the dice on oil futures. Such is the glory of the Market.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:48

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Isn't that basically Enron type accounting? Cashing out on the values of future production?

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:56

MotoMind: May 5, 2007

I'd like to think that someone somewhere in Libya will be playing Front 242 - Funkadafi to mark the momentous occasion of Gadhafi's fall from power.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jPsYAkKzjw

Dance of the leader!

It is sad that Gadhafi outlived his best tribute. An era ends at last.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:58

Ireland Sucks: May 16, 2004

Settepotet posted:

Switzerland freezes all Gaddafi assets.

Well, that's something.

Every asset that they know about and have access to. After siphoning oil money for 40 years that can't be a big percentage of what he owns, epecially since he saw the same thing happen to the last two dictators and probably moved all he (or his sons) could.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:58

redscare: Aug 14, 2003

Slave posted:

Every asset that they know about and have access to. After siphoning oil money for 40 years that can't be a big percentage of what he owns, epecially since he saw the same thing happen to the last two dictators and probably moved all he (or his sons) could.

I wonder if this will have any impact on the mercs. They can't be willing to see this one out to the bitter end either way, but nothing makes mercs bail faster than the lack of money.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:59

Fluffy Bunnies: Jan 10, 2009

Nessus posted:

This is all probably driven by a bunch of casino gamblers rolling the dice on oil futures. Such is the glory of the Market.

And why I'm sitting at home, chilling out and watching this instead of running my errands. I'm not paying $3.15 a gallon for gas and my car is almost at 1/4th tank. I'm saving it for possible emergency. v :shobon:

v

Unrealistic or not, if the Saudis rise, that's pretty much the entire mid-east toppling point, isn't it?

# ? Feb 24, 2011 22:59

GnatKingCoal: Dec 17, 2008; You, Sir, are UNAmerican!

redscare posted:

I wonder if this will have any impact on the mercs. They can't be willing to see this one out to the bitter end either way, but nothing makes mercs bail faster than the lack of money.

Or the threat of the money drying up.
Or a RUMOR of the money drying up.

Spread that rumor, folks. It could save lives.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 23:03

Warthog: Mar 8, 2004; Ferkelwämser extraordinaire

Settepotet posted:

Switzerland freezes all Gaddafi assets.

Well, that's something.

Unfortunately, he already moved most of his money to other countries in 2009 when we arrested his son ... and before he took two swiss businessmen hostage.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 23:04

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

Unrealistic or not, if the Saudis rise, that's pretty much the entire mid-east toppling point, isn't it?

More or less. The world as we know it will change.

# ? Feb 24, 2011 23:04

Vladimir Putin: Mar 17, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

And why I'm sitting at home, chilling out and watching this instead of running my errands. I'm not paying $3.15 a gallon for gas and my car is almost at 1/4th tank. I'm saving it for possible emergency. vv

Unrealistic or not, if the Saudis rise, that's pretty much the entire mid-east toppling point, isn't it?

Thanks for plunging us into another recession buddy. :mad:

# ? Feb 24, 2011 23:04

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# ? Apr 18, 2024 19:21

Spiky Ooze: Oct 27, 2005; Bernie Sanders is a friend to my planet (pictured)

click the shit outta^

It's nice to see Benghazi is happy as hell right now, like Egypt was:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgP0Gro52c8

# ? Feb 24, 2011 23:04

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