Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

I meant ground troops, obviously a no-fly zone would involve the military. It also has the potential to turn into an awful air campaign, but the longer the UN waits to enact a no-fly zone, the less likely that is.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 04:50

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 23:17

Zappatista: Oct 28, 2008; WILL AMOUNT TO NOTHING IN LIFE.

I thought that reports out of Libya had Tripoli's military/civilian international airport falling to the opposition days ago. I'm trying to picture where Ghadaffi'll be able to send planes/helicopters out from...

# ? Feb 28, 2011 04:59

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Libyans have been fairly consistent that they don't want military intervention. Humanitarian aid and supplies is one thing, but any foreign power that tried to move in, even if it were to help them, would likely be resented. Especially since they got this far on their own, and have shown they're willing to go all the way regardless of the cost.

e: Found this on NPR:

quote:

NPR's Lourdes Garcia-Navarro said the vote is being met with a more muted response among anti-government protesters in the liberated east of Libya. They welcomed the U.N. action, but feel the international community didn't move until foreign nationals were evacuated out of the country. Protesters also made clear that they do not welcome foreign intervention in Libya.

"They don't want to be rescued, they don't want any military intervention," Garcia-Navarro reported from Benghazi. "They have done this themselves, they say, and they will get rid of Moammar Gadhafi finally themselves, as well."

There was also a letter someone sent to AJE (probably from the national council), that basically said the same thing: aid is welcome, military intervention is not.

Narmi fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Feb 28, 2011

# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:10

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Widespread protests in China could have as widespread economic and political consequences as protests in Saudi Arabia. I ~~fear~~ that fierce opposition to peaceful protests in either of those countries could ignite the situations even further.

I wonder what would happen with North Korea if these protests in China continue?

Sivias fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Feb 28, 2011

# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:16

Slantedfloors: Apr 29, 2008; Wait, What?

Xandu posted:

It also has the potential to turn into an awful air campaign, but the longer the UN waits to enact a no-fly zone, the less likely that is.

It would be awful for the Libyan Air Force, not so much for the intervening power.

As ridiculous as the joke a while ago about sending two Eurofighters total and doing it "Iron Eagle" style, that's pretty much what an actual air campaign would entail. The Libyan Air Force is horrifically outdated and likely poorly maintained. And hell, most of their "combat aircraft" are outdated trainers that the original operators phased out a decades ago. They're a threat to civilians without any ability to fight back, not so much against an actual military force.

Hopefully, the very threat of a no-fly zone is enough to cow Ghaddaffi or the Air Force brass, because actual combat between the EU/US and the Libyans would be an non-photogenic slaughter. I haven't even heard of a bombing run being performed in the last couple of days anyway, likely because the army units that have joined up with rebels have some sort of AA-capability.

Slantedfloors fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Feb 28, 2011

# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:19

CatchrNdRy: Mar 15, 2005; Receiver of the Rye.

I wonder why the UAE isn't protesting? Dubai seems one of the most unjust and unequal places in the region. It kills me everytime I hear some shallow person go on about how they "totally have no interest in visiting the Middle East, but would love to hang out in Dubai".

# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:23

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Slantedfloors posted:

It would be awful for the Libyan Air Force, not so much for the intervening power.

As ridiculous as the joke a while ago about sending two Eurofighters total and doing it "Iron Eagle" style, that's pretty much what an actual air campaign would entail. The Libyan Air Force is horrifically outdated and most likely poorly maintained. Hell, most of their "combat aircraft" are outdated trainers that the original operators phased out a decades ago.

Hopefully, the very threat of a no-fly zone is enough to cow Ghaddaffi or the Air Force brass, because actual combat between the EU/US and the Libyans would be a slaughter.

If the airforce were willing to fly in the first place. In these last few days there hasn't been reports of concerted air strikes. I think the high profile defections are keeping Khaddafi from trusting giving pilots enough gas to get to Benghazi and back, since that's more than enough to reach Malta or Italy one way. Even with the closer settlements it's a hell of a risk compared to slapping a gun in the hand of a mercenary and telling them to shoot until their paychecks stop coming.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:23

Patter Song: Mar 26, 2010; Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.; Fun Shoe

CatchrNdRy posted:

I wonder why the UAE isn't protesting? Dubai seems one of the most unjust and unequal places in the region. It kills me everytime I hear some shallow person go on about how they "totally have no interest in visiting the Middle East, but would love to hang out in Dubai".

Well, the 20% of the population with citizenship is very well off, and the leadership would react to a reaction to the others (the slave class) like people have always reacted to slave uprisings: kill everyone.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:26

Slantedfloors: Apr 29, 2008; Wait, What?

CatchrNdRy posted:

I wonder why the UAE isn't protesting? Dubai seems one of the most unjust and unequal places in the region. It kills me everytime I hear some shallow person go on about how they "totally have no interest in visiting the Middle East, but would love to hang out in Dubai".

The native populace are pretty content because they get massive benefits packages and have no real worries. And the non-native migrant shitplebe workers would be risking getting slaughtered in the streets by the army if they did anything beyond staring at the ground and remaining silent.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:27

LentThem: Aug 31, 2004; 90% Retractible

Xandu posted:

That would explain why foreign journalists and police were just about the only people to show up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzKsqw8u2v4

The report says "about 300 protesters and onlookers." Being that this is Shanghai, I guess I could see 270 of those being onlookers, and 30 protesters.

Por ejemplo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJp0l72v5dY

# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:41

highme: May 25, 2001; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Patter Song posted:

Well, the 20% of the population with citizenship is very well off, and the leadership would react to a reaction to the others (the slave class) like people have always reacted to slave uprisings: kill everyone.

My sister is currently teaching in Abu Dhabi and this is pretty much the case there as well. The Emiratis are all pretty drat wealthy, and although there aren't as bad of conditions for foreign manual laborers as in Dubai, they're well controlled.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:51

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

More from AJE

It appears protesters may try and bypass Sirte, although I'm not sure I'd put this at anything more solid than rumor at the moment.

quote:

1:28am

With Gaddafi continuing to hold power, thoughts among Benghazi's revolutionaries are reportedly turning to the march on Tripoli. And some are already heading in that direction - circumventing the Gaddafi stronghold of Sirte by travelling hundreds of kilometres in a large arc to the south, our correspondent reports. Citizens were today queuing up to join the local militia - which has been named The Liberation Army Of The Free Libya.

And after the jokes about cellphones earlier

quote:

1:44am

We hear that one of Libya's two main mobile phone providers has been hacked - by it's own employees. They've been topping up everyone's credit to ensure no-one runs out, a contact tells our correspondent in Benghazi. Unfortunately, it doesn' t help much - as network coverage is pretty poor and intermittent, he tells us.

Oh so they already do get Verizon.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 06:10

Suntory BOSS: Apr 17, 2006

I can't help but feel that if there were significant and widespread desire for revolution in China, we'd see that reflected by large-scale protests in Hong Kong. Not that I'm ignorant to the wellspring of discontent, but I think the CCP will be safe as long as they can continue to delivery on promises of economic prosperity and shrink the gap between rich cities and poor rural areas. The time will come when the CCP will face a choice of another Tienanmen Square or significant political reform, but the half-hearted me-too nature of the current protest attempts suggest that time is still a ways off.

On North Korea, I think people overestimate the degree to which the North Korean public supposedly adulates Kim Jong Il and the extent of their isolation/ignorance. There have been plenty of reports about North Koreans with smuggled cell phones, portable DVD players, South Korean soaps/Japanese porn, albeit mostly confined to areas along the Chinese border. There is also the natural diffusion of outside knowledge/information from businessmen, traders, and North Koreans able to cross into China on a regular basis, as well as South Korean propaganda balloons. The regime rules by fear and strength rather than upon the consent of the governed, and if the military does not overthrow the Kim dynasty during the transition attempt, the people will eventually overcome their fear and take their freedom by force.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 06:14

Homeroom Fingering: Apr 25, 2009; The secret history (((they))) don't want you to know

I think the peoples' opinions in North Korea, like everything else there, are impossible to tell because how locked down they are. Like the earlier example of the guy getting his sight fixed immediately thanking Kim's portrait, there is no way of telling if he truly believed that or if he did it because he knew full well what would happen if he didn't. With a foreigner around there was probably plenty of police there before, during, and after.

What I'm more curious about what South Korea would do if major (horribly violent) protests broke out in North Korea. Hell, the crazy bastard would probably blame them for the protests and fire whatever he has at Seoul before going down.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 06:36

Lascivious Sloth: Apr 26, 2008; by sebmojo

Suntory BOSS posted:

I can't help but feel that if there were significant and widespread desire for revolution in China, we'd see that reflected by large-scale protests in Hong Kong.

I'm no expert on China, but I would suspect the complete opposite- that it would start anywhere but Hong Kong. Hong Kong is far removed from typical China, especially rural China, and it's political system. I do agree it would be a main city though.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 06:52

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Sivias posted:

Widespread protests in China could have as widespread economic and political consequences as protests in Saudi Arabia.

Egyptian- or Libyan-intensity demonstrations in China would loving wreck the American economy, considering how much poo poo we've outsourced to them.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 07:28

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Young Freud posted:

Egyptian- or Libyan-intensity demonstrations in China would loving wreck the American economy, considering how much poo poo we've outsourced to them.

I guess we're 'Too Big to Fail'

It wouldn't just be America. The whole world would fall into a catastrophic depression.

Sounds like the fall of the Mayan empire. They built too big and too fast for their society to sustain. Overpopulation, peasant revolt, and the decline in trade. Their whole society vanished from the records and dispersed into the wilderness.

I wonder if the Mayans saw their inevitable collapse coming.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 07:52

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Very interesting report about a mutiny in the Muslim Brotherhood.

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/young-muslim-brothers-plan-17-march-revolt-against-group-leadership posted:

A group of roughly 2000 young members of the Muslim Brotherhood say they are planning to stage a �revolt� against the group�s authoritative Guidance Bureau and Shura Council on 17 March to demand the dissolution of the two governing bodies.

Young members say there is no reason why the group should work in secrecy considering the �wave of freedom� witnessed by Egypt following the 25 January uprising, which led to the ouster of Egypt's longstanding president Hosni Mubarak on 11 February.

Young members say the group�s role should be restricted to preaching the teachings of Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna.

They also demand the formation of a transitional committee mandated with directing the group's affairs until a new board can be elected. They have suggested that the proposed committee be headed by Mohamed Mahdi Akef, the group�s previous general guide.

Young members of the group are threatening to hold an open-ended sit-in if their demands are not met. They said they expected organizational "change" to take place within the Muslim Brotherhood by April, when they would begin taking steps aimed at "modernizing" the group and its activities.

Translated from the Arabic Edition.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:10

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Sivias posted:

Sounds like the fall of the Mayan empire. They built too big and too fast for their society to sustain. Overpopulation, peasant revolt, and the decline in trade. Their whole society vanished from the records and dispersed into the wilderness.

I wonder if the Mayans saw their inevitable collapse coming.

The end of the Mayan long-count calender in 2012 is around the corner.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:11

Hipster_Doofus: Dec 20, 2003; Lovin' every minute of it.

Young Freud posted:

Egyptian- or Libyan-intensity demonstrations in China would loving wreck the American economy, considering how much poo poo we've outsourced to them.

Bring it on. I dunno about others, but I am more than happy to endure a (more) lovely American/worldwide economy if it is caused by this wonderful, ever-growing wave of revolution we are witnessing. In fact, it'd be pretty loving trivial compared to the sacrifices of each and every one of these people who are willingly risking/giving their lives for the freedom and the futures of others.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:12

Patter Song: Mar 26, 2010; Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.; Fun Shoe

Question: Isn't "Shura Council" the most redundant phrase since "PIN Number?"

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:12

Frozen Horse: Aug 6, 2007; Just a humble wandering street philosopher.

farraday posted:

If the airforce were willing to fly in the first place. In these last few days there hasn't been reports of concerted air strikes. I think the high profile defections are keeping Khaddafi from trusting giving pilots enough gas to get to Benghazi and back, since that's more than enough to reach Malta or Italy one way. Even with the closer settlements it's a hell of a risk compared to slapping a gun in the hand of a mercenary and telling them to shoot until their paychecks stop coming.

Yeah, this makes me wonder exactly what went down in the plane where the crew ejected rather than bombed civilians. Even with minimal fuel for a bombing mission, if they hit the external stores jettison button the decrease in weight and aerodynamic drag from letting the bombs and rocket pods fall into the desert would make it possible to reach a neutral airport, saving the new government the cost of a plane. Most charitably, their pre-flight briefing may have included mention of SAM batteries with orders to shoot down deserters. Other possibilities include a unilateral decision by one of the crew leaving the other with a very loud and windy airplane, and possibly an auto-triggered ejection seat - I don't know how they are wired on that plane. Lastly, it could have been mechanical failure followed by a parachute ride where options were considered.

In the present situation, I think what is needed is humanitarian relief to Benghazi and the other liberated cities, and a no-fly zone enforced with a mix of the actual few fighters needed and strike aircraft that the mercenaries can hear flying overhead and contemplate exactly how much it means to get paid money that they may not ever spend. Similarly, if recon footage of positions around Sirte were delivered to the rebel alliance, I would not call it outside meddling. Ultimately, there will be accusations that it was a CIA plot even if not a single cup of milk is delivered, so we have to look at realities rather than appearances.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:16

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Hypermarket in Sohar, Oman.

Patter Song posted:

Question: Isn't "Shura Council" the most redundant phrase since "PIN Number?"

Consultative council is probably a better translation, but even then, it's still rather redundant.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:26

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Hipster_Doofus posted:

Bring it on. I dunno about others, but I am more than happy to endure a (more) lovely American/worldwide economy if it is caused by this wonderful, ever-growing wave of revolution we are witnessing. In fact, it'd be pretty loving trivial compared to the sacrifices of each and every one of these people who are willingly risking/giving their lives for the freedom and the futures of others.

Unfortunately it's not nearly as simple as this. There is so much complexity and gray area that jumping to such idealistic conclusions is a bit folly.

Consider for a moment if the Saudi empire collapse. The fighting between who owns the oil wells would create chaos and ultimately shut down a majority, if not all of the oil exports.

As soon as the Oil turns off, this planet will collapse economically. Industry, shipping, air travel, production, food, fuel. We depend on the remaining carbon goo of ancient plants an animals to power our civilization.

China is another boat entirely. China produces for the world. They're the fastest growing economy and support the largest population, as well as has incredible stock in the United States. If China's government falls, on whose shoulders does the financial situation fall?

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:30

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

Sivias posted:

Unfortunately it's not nearly as simple as this. There is so much complexity and gray area that jumping to such idealistic conclusions is a bit folly.

Consider for a moment the Saudi empire collapse. The fighting between who owns the oil wells would create chaos and ultimately shut down a majority, if not all of the oil exports.

As soon as the Oil turns off, this planet will collapse economically. Industry, shipping, air travel, production, food, fuel. We depend on the remaining carbon goo of ancient plants an animals to power our civilization.

China is another boat entirely. China produces for the world. They're the fastest growing economy and support the largest population, as well as has incredible stock in the United States. If China's government falls, on whose shoulders does the financial situation fall?

Actually most nations have reserves, and total collapse is also folly. If any power in the Middle East deserves to be completely wrecked to poo poo it's the Kingdom of Saud.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:32

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Hipster_Doofus posted:

Bring it on. I dunno about others, but I am more than happy to endure a (more) lovely American/worldwide economy if it is caused by this wonderful, ever-growing wave of revolution we are witnessing. In fact, it'd be pretty loving trivial compared to the sacrifices of each and every one of these people who are willingly risking/giving their lives for the freedom and the futures of others.

Actually, this is how I view it:

Secretary: Boss, I've got some bad news!
Big Boss: What is it?
Secretary: Oil prices have increased up out distribution costs by 300%!
Big Boss: That's okay. We'll just jack up our prices to keep our profit margins.
Secretary: But that's not all of it. The workers in China are out protesting for higher wages and equality! The sweatshops are on fire or have been taken over by the workers! The entire stock has been looted!
Big Boss: That's horrible.
Secretary: Even if the situation stabilizes, we're looking at an enormous cost. We can never go back to the way we do business in China. It'll be like having to pay the equivalent for minimum wage to do business over there from now on. That and benefits. And overseas distribution costs due to increased oil prices.
Big Boss: Well, because of the increased cost of distribution and manufacturing, I guess we'll have no choice but to return back to the United States. Luckily, we've weakened the unions enough that we can still make a profit.
Secretary: Well, sir, about that...

Big Boss: :suicide:

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:33

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Nonsense posted:

Actually most nations have reserves, and total collapse is also folly. If any power in the Middle East deserves to be completely wrecked to poo poo it's the Kingdom of Saud.

The reason they're called 'reserves' is not because they last forever.
It's estimated that America has 21,000,000,000 (billion) barrels of oil in reserve.
Cars alone burn roughly 20,000,000 (million) barrels PER DAY.

20 Billion / 20 million = 1000 days.

or about 4 years.

Do you think the flow of oil will return to the state it's at within 4 years? Better be faster than that, because that's just cars. On top of that, every day the oil flow doesn't return, the cost goes up. Look back to the 70's oil crisis. We tapped into the reserves and you saw car's waiting in line for 15 hours or more. People everywhere pushing their cars around.

Sivias fucked around with this message at 08:52 on Feb 28, 2011

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:43

quadratic: May 2, 2002; f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c

MothraAttack posted:

Any Arabic speakers that can translate this more thoroughly? Video purports to show chemical weapons cache seized by revolutionaries:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm6XF7l5iiQ&feature=player_detailpage

I wonder how they concluded that they're chemical weapons. The canisters clearly say "B.A.E. EJECTION SEAT PRIMARY CARTRIDGE"

Xandu posted:

Not a terrible turnout in Lebanon today considering the rain.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MR-NwNdA2BM

I'm not really sure where they're trying to go with this. All I've seen is a vague goal of ending sectarianism.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:46

rolleyes: Nov 16, 2006; Sometimes you have to roll the hard... two?

Sivias posted:

I wonder what would happen with North Korea if these protests in China continue?

People have got to get the idea of something like this happening in NK out of their heads. It's just not going to happen. For reference, here's what's been happening in Beijing:

"[url posted:

https://"http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12593328[/url]"]
...
It would have been farcical if it hadn't turned so brutal.
...
The police were monitoring everyone going into the pedestrian zone. But unable to distinguish the protesters, who'd been called to "stroll" peacefully and silently past McDonald's restaurant at 1400, from genuine shoppers they focussed on picking out foreign reporters and cameramen.
...
We were immediately singled out. Uniformed officers blocked our way a few hundred yards from McDonald's [where the demonstration was to take place] and demanded our press cards.
...
China's reporting rules allow us to film on the street. For interviews we must seek the consent of interviewees. We stuck well within the rules. Even when the police blocked us without explanation we co-operated. All around us it was obvious that at least half the people on the street were plainclothes state security officers.
...
Then suddenly, a few minutes before 2pm, the crucial time for the "Jasmine" protests, the plainclothes thugs waded in. Without warning they shoved and pushed the BBC's cameraman. They grabbed at his camera and tried to rip it from his hands, bundling him a full 50 yards into a police van.
...
Then the thugs turned on me. My hair was grabbed and pulled by one of the state security goons. They tried to pick me up and throw me bodily into the van. I found myself lying on the floor as they repeatedly slammed the door on my leg which was still part of the way out of the truck, one, two, three times, maybe more.
...
One cameraman was set upon by five men who kicked, and punched him in the face, he had to go to hospital for treatment; another had his hand injured. It was brutal and totally out of proportion to the situation.

This is what China does when the world is not just watching but recording it all on videotape. What do you think they get up to behind closed doors?

There are few regimes in the world more brutal than China's but NK's is one of them. I'm not going to repeat all of the reasons why protests in NK won't happen and would be damaging if they did, because the information is literally two pages back. If you don't want to go hunting then bring up the list of my posts to see part of it.

On the idea of violent overthrow of the regime, you do realise that NK has one of the largest standing armies in the world right? Not one of the largest compared to it's population - simply one of the largest armies on the planet. They may be poorly equipped but you don't need much to stop unarmed half-starving peasants.

rolleyes fucked around with this message at 09:02 on Feb 28, 2011

# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:58

sweeptheleg: Nov 26, 2007

Sivias posted:

The reason they're called 'reserves' is not because they last forever.
It's estimated that America has 21,000,000,000 (billion) barrels of oil in reserve.
Cars alone burn roughly 20,000,000 (million) barrels PER DAY.

20 Billion / 20 million = 1000 days.

or about 4 years.

Do you think the flow of oil will return to the state it's at within 4 years? Better be faster than that, because that's just cars. On top of that, every day the oil flow doesn't return, the cost goes up. Look back to the 70's oil crisis. We tapped into the reserves and you saw car's waiting in line for 15 hours or more. People everywhere pushing their cars around.

Maybe it would force us to be oil free?

# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:03

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

sweeptheleg posted:

Maybe it would force us to be oil free?

Single reason our population, production, economy is at the level it's at is entirely due to Oil. We consume 1/4th of the worlds oil and we have something like 5% of the population.

There is no way for the United States to be "oil free". It just simply isn't possible.

Self Sustainability and 'green only' energy is a dream, and a dumb one. It costs something like 7 gallons of oil per tire. Solar energy isn't going to make 290 million tires.

Sivias fucked around with this message at 09:12 on Feb 28, 2011

# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:10

Namarrgon: Dec 23, 2008; Congratulations on not getting fit in 2011!

Sivias posted:

The reason they're called 'reserves' is not because they last forever.
It's estimated that America has 21,000,000,000 (billion) barrels of oil in reserve.
Cars alone burn roughly 20,000,000 (million) barrels PER DAY.

20 Billion / 20 million = 1000 days.

or about 4 years.

Do you think the flow of oil will return to the state it's at within 4 years? Better be faster than that, because that's just cars. On top of that, every day the oil flow doesn't return, the cost goes up. Look back to the 70's oil crisis. We tapped into the reserves and you saw car's waiting in line for 15 hours or more. People everywhere pushing their cars around.

More realistically we'd see massive oil rations and every government on the planet sprinting as fast as possible to nuclear power. I imagine that old cold war hangup will be forgotten quickly in the face of losing our comforts.

e. That's not to say it wouldn't be a massive fuckup and cars and transport in general (including food transport ) would still be hosed. But it's not a doomsday scenario

e2. Actually it is a doomsday scenario.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:14

Lycus: Aug 5, 2008; Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

Young Freud posted:

Egyptian- or Libyan-intensity demonstrations in China would loving wreck the American economy, considering how much poo poo we've outsourced to them.

And then maybe we'll have one of these popular revolution things. :haw:

# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:16

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

quadratic posted:

I'm not really sure where they're trying to go with this. All I've seen is a vague goal of ending sectarianism.

There's not a clear set of goals, but sectarianism is rather all-encompassing in Lebanon and they want an end to the whole system. Here's the two really big ones that always get brought up, but there's other vague ones as well.

-Parliamentary seats wouldn't be distributed along sectarian lines. Currently christians, shia, and sunni are all guaranteed a certain amount of seats to regulate the balance of power. This leads to sects with only one real political party (christians are a bit of an exception) and a completely dysfunctional government.
-Civil marriage and a reformed inheritance law. Currently civil marriage doesn't exist in Lebanon (have to travel abroad to Cyprus if you want to marry someone from another sect) and you can't pass property to someone from another sect. Someone even introduced a bill that would prohibit christians from selling property to muslims.

A rough google translation from the organizer of the protest.

http://trella.org/2562 posted:

� against the sectarian system and its symbols, warlords and factions
� against the regime of quotas and political succession
� against social exploitation - economic, unemployment, migration
� against poverty and marginalization
� against the development is regionally balanced and deprivation
� Against Racism and Discrimination

So we want:
� civilian democratic secular state, a state of social justice and equality
� The right to a decent life for all citizens through:
� Raising the minimum wage
� reducing the prices of basic materials
� Reduction in fuel prices
� Promote formal education
� equal access to public and private employment
� abolition of patronage, brokerage, and bribes
� The right to adequate housing
� Strengthening Social Security and the adoption of old-age security

These are some of the phenomena of corruption in the sectarian-based system, to all of this and other reasons, and we want to be!
Drop the sectarian system

# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:18

Lycus: Aug 5, 2008; Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

Xandu posted:

-Parliamentary seats wouldn't be distributed along sectarian lines. Currently christians, shia, and sunni are all guaranteed a certain amount of seats to regulate the balance of power. This leads to sects with only one real political party (christians are a bit of an exception) and a completely dysfunctional government.

Yeah, and the three major seats of the government each have to go to a specific religion. The president has to be Christian, the prime minister has to be Sunni, and the speaker of parliament has to be Shi'a.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:29

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

sweeptheleg posted:

Maybe it would force us to be oil free?

Sure, it would be a good occasion to become oil free except for the fact that developed countries are oil addicts and extremely well armed.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:41

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Maps
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This is the best site for monitoring twitter, for those who don't know.
http://twitterfall.com/
Just plug in #tripoli or #libya and watch the stream come through. You can do exclusions and all kinds of neat things.

You can also exlude retweets using the drop down boxes on the top right. Reduces the amount of old information that gets repeated, and saves confusion.

For monitoring aircraft unable to land at Tripoli

Monkeytime posted:

Here's an interesting site that lets you monitor global air traffic:
http://www.flightradar24.com/

Live Blogs
BBC
Guardian
AJE

Guardian news round up:

quote:

Good morning and welcome to the Guardian's continued coverage of the uprising in Libya and events elsewhere in North Africa and the Middle East.

Here's a summary of the latest developments in Libya.

�The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, has arrived in Geneva, Switzerland for a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council as foreign powers continue to put pressure on the Libyan leader to stand down. The council will discuss the possibility of further measures against Gaddafi, having unanimously voted on Friday to approve a resolution recommending Libya's exclusion from the body.

� The city of Zawiyah, 30 miles from Tripoli, has become the closest city to the Libyan capital to be taken by rebels. But troops loyal to Muammar Gaddafi continue to surround the city and there are fears a move to retake the city could be imminent.

� Thousands of migrant workers have been streaming into Tunisia from Libya and there have been scuffles at the border. At least 10,000 migrant workers, mostly Egyptians but also from China, Thailand, Morocco, Turkey and elsewhere, have amassed at the Tunisian border town, Ras Adjir, where tent camps have been erected by the army to house stranded labourers.The International Organisation for Migration estimates that at least 335,000 Egyptian labourers work in Libya. A total of 50,000 people have crossed the border here since February 21, including 20,000 over the weekend, according to the European Commission's Humanitarian Aid Office.

� Britain froze the assets of Gaddafi and his five children last night. It also said it was revoking the diplomatic immunity of the Libyan leader and his family. Britain mounted a second rescue operation with Hercules aircraft to evacuate its citizens last night.

And here's a summary of some of the most significant developments elsewhere in the region:

� Protesters have taken to the streets for a third consecutive day of protests in Oman. An emergency doctor at the state hospital in the seaside town of Sohar has told Reuters six people were killed in yesterday as riot police used teargas and rubber bullets against protesters. Oman's state-run news agency says one person has been confirmed dead.

� Protests continue in Bahrain where thousands still occupy Pearl roundabout in the capital Manama despite King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa's attempt to appease protesters by announcing a cabinet reshuffle.

� The Tunisian prime minister Mohamed Ghannouchi has resigned as prime minister of the post-revolution government after violent protests by people angry at his links to the deposed dictator Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. There were celebrations in the streets of the capital, Tunis, after Ghannouchi announced he was standing down.

� Yemen's opposition parties have said they are joining young protesters in their push to bring down President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Security officials said 18 protesters were injured in clashes with security forces yesterday.

Other news

quote:

We hear that one of Libya's two main mobile phone providers has been hacked - by it's own employees. They've been topping up everyone's credit to ensure no-one runs out, a contact tells our correspondent in Benghazi. Unfortunately, it doesn' t help much - as network coverage is pretty poor and intermittent, he tells us.

quote:

We're getting reports that the country's second most important military airport, not far from Benghazi, has fallen to the protesters.

Private jets and civilian aircraft at the Al Banin airport were seen grounded. Military personnel say they have joined the people's revolution.

If true, the takeover would mark another blow to Gaddafi's regime.

quote:

Ibrahim Sharquieh, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Centre, said Gaddafi does not appear to have lost all of his control in the capital.

quote:
We know that he is in the Bab al-Aziziya area and Bab al-Aziziya seems to be very secure. He has his militia around him and they are doing a good job protecting him," Sharquieh told Al Jazeera.

"He has even made some attacks outside the Bab al-Aziziya area.

"We can comfortably say that he is still in control in Tripoli. Although there is still some resistance in some areas I don't think we can talk about the city falling today or tomorrow."

quote:

The Libyan ambassador to South Africa has became the latest foreign envoy to turn his back on Gaddafi and urge the dictator to stand down, according to the Associated Press. Abdalla Alzubedi said:

quote:
"I would like for him to resign because it is in the interest of the people for him to resign."

He joins a growing list of defectors.

quote:

Col Gaddafi's isolation grows as French Prime Minister Francois Fillon announces they are sending two planeloads of medical aid to opposition groups in Libya, and have not ruled out backing a Nato no-fly zone over the country.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 10:13

MA-Horus: Dec 3, 2006; I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how awesome I am.

The only thing a NATO No-fly zone is going to accomplish is that Gaddafi's pilots are going to get into the air, and immediately punch-out over the ocean. I think most of them remember what happened to Saddam's pilots when they refused to take off against American F-15s.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 10:23

Orkin Mang: Nov 1, 2007; by FactsAreUseless

MA-Horus posted:

The only thing a NATO No-fly zone is going to accomplish is that Gaddafi's pilots are going to get into the air, and immediately punch-out over the ocean. I think most of them remember what happened to Saddam's pilots when they refused to take off against American F-15s.

What do you mean by 'punch-out'? Do you mean defect?

# ? Feb 28, 2011 10:29

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Apr 25, 2024 23:17

Slantedfloors: Apr 29, 2008; Wait, What?

boogs posted:

What do you mean by 'punch-out'? Do you mean defect?

He means they'll eject.

# ? Feb 28, 2011 10:30

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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