Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Frackmire: Jan 26, 2010; WHY DO THEY
HATE US WHEN
WE'RE SO GOOD?

Yeah, but Iraq wasn't about oil at all. I wish it was because we would have something to show for it. We should never have allowed foreign companies to bid on developing Iraqi fields, and rather let Iraqis nationalize them and sell it only to us.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:29

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 03:16

The Cheshire Cat: Jun 10, 2008; Fun Shoe

Sivias posted:

This is something I've been warning about since the start of this thread. Keep your eye on the Saudis.

On July 15th, 1979, Jimmy Carter gave his 'Malaise' speech where he basically outlined that any interference with America's flow of oil amounts to a moral equivalent of war.

This brings me to my next point. America can't afford to let the oil stop flowing. Coincidentally, we also can't afford any more military intervention, in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere, due to our current quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan in order secure oil. (Thanks Bush).

One of the biggest reasons why participating in an expensive war of choice is a terrible idea (don't convince yourself that it was anything other than a war of choice) is because now we're unable to focus our efforts on a real issue. Iraq was a gamble, and we lost. Well, the oil companies didn't. They made profits never seen on this planet.

Part of me wants to see the US succumb to their dependence on oil and crash and burn, but of course that's a crazy notion since if the US falls they'd take the rest of the world's economy with them, and even if the US DOES need a serious kick in the rear end to get off of oil, millions of people would have their lives utterly destroyed before there'd be any hope of recovery.

It's just one of those situations where doing the right thing ends up screwing you more because of all the wrong things done by your predecessors.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:31

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

^^^ It will happen. The whole problem with our system of economics is it is based on infinite growth. We always talk about 'How much the economy has grown'. We never discuss maturity. However, the issue with infinite growth is it requires infinite resources, and unfortunately, oil is a very finite resource. I think I remember hearing that in 150 years, at the continued growth in oil usage, it will run out.

And to the people who say "But Canada has oil shale" (Rocks you have to break open and process to squeeze the oil out) - but if it costs 1 barrel of oil to get one barrel of oil, it's not worth it. The reason the desert is such a nice source of oil is cause it's easy. Stick a straw in the ground and suck. Offshore drilling has the same exact concept but it's leaps and bounds more difficult, imagine trying to squeeze rocks.

Frackmire posted:

Yeah, but Iraq wasn't about oil at all. I wish it was because we would have something to show for it. We should never have allowed foreign companies to bid on developing Iraqi fields, and rather let Iraqis nationalize them and sell it only to us.

I heard a woman on AJE once say "If Sadaam Husein had carrots instead of oil, we never would have invaded."
And it's true. If the land didn't have the second largest sources of oil, we never would have went.

Sivias fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Mar 1, 2011

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:33

Pureauthor: Jul 8, 2010; ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST

Sivias posted:

I heard a woman on AJE once say "If Sadaam Husein had carrots instead of oil, we never would have invaded."
And it's true. If the land didn't have the second largest sources of oil, we never would have went.

Well unless I missed something, if the USA went in there to secure oil for themselves they've done a pretty terrible job so far.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:37

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

Sivias posted:

The only difference is the country is by far more conservative than the surrounding nations and the government is more of a family. So rearranging money around to help the lower class citizens is far easier.

It's true but fact that their government is a family could also be their main weakness. King Abdullah is 86 years old and his health not that good anymore (herniated disc, i think?). I wonder what would happen if a succession crisis between Nayef, Salman or any other son of Abdul-Aziz started in the current political context.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:39

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Well, it isn't just for America.
What a lot of people don't really understand about oil is that every drop of oil that get's pumped out of the earth goes to the world market. (Which is why 'drill baby drill' for oil independence is a complete loving lie. gently caress you Palin.)
Every drop of oil we would pump out of ANWR province in Alaska would go to the world market.
It's very convenient if you're an oil man (Cheney and Halliburton, and Bush who couldn't even run his own oil company.) as well as war being a very profitable venture. (See: Eisenhower on the Industrial Military Complex)

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:41

Frozen Horse: Aug 6, 2007; Just a humble wandering street philosopher.

Toplowtech posted:

It's true but fact that their government is a family could also be their main weakness. King Abdullah is 86 years old and his health not that good anymore (herniated disc, i think?). I wonder what would happen if a succession crisis between Nayef, Salman or any other son of Abdul-Aziz started in the current political context.

Also, in any absolute monarchy, there's the possibility that the next day could bring a Prince Gyanendra / Hamlet - style succession crisis.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:44

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

There are serious and compelling reasons why Saudi Arabia is similar to other regimes we've seen overthrown, and yet I still can't see it happening.

They are an incredibly militarized state, and I'm not even sure that's counting unofficial security forces. The religious authoritarianism is a direct support of the regime and you would really need to see it crack to even have a hope of making the whole rotten thing collapse. I haven't seen a crack yet. Maybe one could show up, but if it does I don't see any way it doesn't make Libya look like a day in the park.

Maybe that's part of it though, the reasonable consequences in Saudi Arabia of any uprising strong enough to take out the Sauds make me flinch from seriously considering the prospect.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:52

The Cheshire Cat: Jun 10, 2008; Fun Shoe

farraday posted:

There are serious and compelling reasons why Saudi Arabia is similar to other regimes we've seen overthrown, and yet I still can't see it happening.

They are an incredibly militarized state, and I'm not even sure that's counting unofficial security forces. The religious authoritarianism is a direct support of the regime and you would really need to see it crack to even have a hope of making the whole rotten thing collapse. I haven't seen a crack yet. Maybe one could show up, but if it does I don't see any way it doesn't make Libya look like a day in the park.

Maybe that's part of it though, the reasonable consequences in Saudi Arabia of any uprising strong enough to take out the Sauds make me flinch from seriously considering the prospect.

That's the scary part, really. There is a LOT resting on that little (well, not THAT little) kingdom in the middle east, and the royal family is all too aware of how much power their wield over the rest of the world.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:54

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Frozen Horse posted:

Also, in any absolute monarchy, there's the possibility that the next day could bring a Prince Gyanendra / Hamlet - style succession crisis.

I believe the king set up some sort of committee to choose his sucessor if something were to happen to him, given that the crown prince is as old as he is. Of course, whether people actually abide by that decision once he's gone is another matter, but presuming they do (and they have every interst in not causing succession disputes, since it would basically be the goernment turning on itself), there would be a fiarly smooth transition of power.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:55

TheBalor: Jun 18, 2001

Well, supposing the cracks do occur and the House of Saud is overthrown, what are these consequences that could occur? Obviously the calculus of power in the region would change; it seems like every time I hear of some regressive or anti-democratic movement in the ME, it can be traced back to the house of Saud.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 03:58

The Cheshire Cat: Jun 10, 2008; Fun Shoe

TheBalor posted:

Well, supposing the cracks do occur and the House of Saud is overthrown, what are these consequences that could occur? Obviously the calculus of power in the region would change; it seems like every time I hear of some regressive or anti-democratic movement in the ME, it can be traced back to the house of Saud.

The issue is more what would happen to the world if the oil supply was interrupted, which it would be for the duration of any sort of revolution. Even if it was eventually restored, there would be serious economic problems from just a temporary shortage. Pretty much everything depends on the cost of oil; plastics are everywhere, transportation, electricity, etc. We don't have the infrastructure set up to just shrug it off.

In the very long term, it would be a good thing for the world at large. But in the more immediate future it would probably plunge the entire world into a situation that makes the Great Depression look like a slight stock market dip.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 04:07

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

TheBalor posted:

Well, supposing the cracks do occur and the House of Saud is overthrown, what are these consequences that could occur? Obviously the calculus of power in the region would change; it seems like every time I hear of some regressive or anti-democratic movement in the ME, it can be traced back to the house of Saud.

It would make Iran the regional power givent he two compete for influence in the Middel-East (seriously, they are fighting a proxy war in Yemen). Wikileaks even released a cable where the Saudis were urging the US to take out Iran.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 04:12

SauceNinja: Nov 8, 2002; Knock Knock.
Who's There?
You're Fired.

Sivias posted:

Well, it isn't just for America.
What a lot of people don't really understand about oil is that every drop of oil that get's pumped out of the earth goes to the world market. (Which is why 'drill baby drill' for oil independence is a complete loving lie. gently caress you Palin.)
Every drop of oil we would pump out of ANWR province in Alaska would go to the world market.
It's very convenient if you're an oil man (Cheney and Halliburton, and Bush who couldn't even run his own oil company.) as well as war being a very profitable venture. (See: Eisenhower on the Industrial Military Complex)

Doesn't the vast majority of every resource on earth pretty much go to the world market? I want a solar powered flying car and that's never going to happen so long as there's oil in the ground. I'm in favor of drilling.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 04:18

Patter Song: Mar 26, 2010; Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.; Fun Shoe

The other point about Saudi Arabia is that every regime we've seen crack (Tunisia, Egypt, and especially Libya), Old Regime figures have defected to the protestors or determinedly stayed neutral, impeding the ability of the regime to function and leveling the playing field. I'm not familiar enough with the Yemen revolt, but that emphatically did not happen in Bahrain, where the Sunni ruling elite banded together in fear of the Shia demonstrators. Saudi Arabia will be even worse. As has been repeatedly pointed out, the entire Saudi ruling class is one (tens of thousands strong) family. They have a level of connections and solidarity unfathomable to outsiders. While there are individual rivalries between the members (I'm no expert, but I've heard Crown Prince Sultan isn't widely liked by the younger royals, who resent that the elder generation has had a monopoly on the throne for decades), they will close ranks if challenged, out of fear of repercussions if the House of Saud falls if nothing else.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 04:41

Pureauthor: Jul 8, 2010; ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST

Speaking of which, does anyone know how much headway the protestors in Bahrain have made?

# ? Mar 1, 2011 04:48

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Good article on why KSA could be next. It's long, but she crushes a lot of myths, so I posted it in full.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/28/yes_it_could_happen_here posted:

In the age of Arab revolutions, will Saudis dare to honor Facebook calls for anti-government demonstrations on March 11? Will they protest at one of Jeddah's main roundabouts? Or will they start in Qatif, the eastern region where a substantial Shiite majority has had more experience in real protest? Will Riyadh remain cocooned in its cloak of pomp and power, hidden from public gaze in its mighty sand castles?

Saudi Arabia is ripe for change. Despite its image as a fabulously wealthy realm with a quiescent, apolitical population, it has similar economic, demographic, social, and political conditions as those prevailing in its neighboring Arab countries. There is no reason to believe Saudis are immune to the protest fever sweeping the region.

Saudi Arabia is indeed wealthy, but most of its young population cannot find jobs in either the public or private sector. The expansion of its $430 billion economy has benefited a substantial section of the entrepreneurial elite -- particularly those well connected with the ruling family -- but has failed to produce jobs for thousands of college graduates every year. This same elite has resisted employing expensive Saudis and contributed to the rise in local unemployment by hiring foreign labor. Rising oil prices since 2003 and the expansion of state investment in education, infrastructure, and welfare, meanwhile, have produced an explosive economy of desires.

Like their neighbors, Saudis want jobs, houses, and education, but they also desire something else. Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq in 2003, they have expressed their political demands in their own way, through petitions that circulated and were signed by hundreds of activists and professionals, men and women, Sunnis, Shiites, and Ismailis. Reformers petitioned King Abdullah to establish an elected consultative assembly to replace the 120-member appointed Consultative Council Saudis inherited from King Fahd. Political organizers were jailed and some banned from travel to this day. The "Riyadh spring" that many reformers anticipated upon King Abdullah's accession in 2005 was put on hold while torrential rain swept away decaying infrastructure and people in major cities. Rising unemployment pushed the youth toward antisocial behavior, marriages collapsed, the number of bachelors soared, and the number of people under the poverty line increased in one of the wealthiest states of the Arab world. Today, nearly 40 percent of Saudis ages 20 to 24 are unemployed.

Meanwhile, scandal after scandal exposed the level of corruption and nepotism in state institutions. Princes promised to establish investigative committees, yet culprits were left unpunished. Criticism of the king and top ruling princes remained taboo, and few crossed the red line surrounding the substantial sacrosanct clique that monopolizes government posts from defense to sports. The number of political prisoners and prisoners of conscience swelled Saudi prisons. Under the pretext of the war on terror, the Saudi regime enjoyed a free hand. The interior minister, Prince Nayef, and his son and deputy, Prince Mohammed, rounded up peaceful activists, bloggers, lawyers, and academics and jailed them for extended periods. Saudis watched in silence while the outside world either remained oblivious to abuses of human rights or turned a blind eye in the interests of oil, arms, and investment.

"We are not Tunisia," "We are not Egypt," "We are not Libya," (and perhaps in a month's time, "We are not the Arab world") have become well-rehearsed refrains of official Saudi political rhetoric in recent weeks. There is some truth in this: Carrots are often the currency of loyalty in oil-rich countries, including its wealthiest kingdom. But the Saudi royal family uses plenty of sticks, too. Public relations firms in Riyadh, Washington, and London ensure that news of the carrots travels as far as possible, masking unpleasant realities in one of the least transparent and most authoritarian regimes in the Persian Gulf. What cannot be hidden anymore is the political, economic, and social problems that oil has so far failed to address.

When Saudis were poor and lagged behind the world in education, aspirations, and infrastructure, oil was the balm that healed all social wounds. The wave of coups d'�tat that swept the Arab world in the 1950s and 1960s did not make much impression on Saudis, despite some agitation here and there. Few Saudis were impressed by the effervescence of Arab revolutionary or liberation movements. At the time, most Saudis lacked the education or inclination to question their government, apart from a handful of activists and agitators, including a couple of princes. By the 1970s, oil wealth was developing their taste for the consumer economy and the pleasures of cars, planes, running water, air-conditioning, and sunglasses. Political participation wasn't part of the package.

Today, oil remains abundant, but Saudis are different. They enjoy more consumption and liquidity than others in the Arab world, but less than those in neighboring Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudis are today looking for something else. They are young -- youth under 30 account for two-thirds of the Saudi population -- educated, connected, and articulate. Above all, they are familiar with the global discourse of democracy, freedom, entitlement, empowerment, transparency, accountability, and human rights that has exploded in the face of authoritarian regimes in the Arab world since January. They watch satellite channels like Al Jazeera and eagerly consume news from uprisings around the region.

So far young Saudis have occupied their own "Liberation Square" on a virtual map. In the 1990s their exiled Islamist opposition used the fax machine to bombard the country with messages denouncing the leadership and calling for a return to pristine Islam. Later, a wider circle of politicized and nonpoliticized young Saudis ventured into Internet discussion boards, chat rooms, blogs, and more recently Facebook and Twitter to express themselves, mobilize, and share grievances. These virtual spaces have become natural homes for both dissenting voices and government propaganda. Recently the king's private secretary and chief of the royal court, Khaled al-Tuwaijri, launched his own Facebook page.

Saudis thought that they were safe in their virtual world, but the regime has been determined to trace each and every word and whisper that challenges its version of reality. Young bloggers, writers, and essayists have been jailed for asking simple questions like: Who is going to be king after Abdullah? Where is oil wealth going? Who is responsible for corruption scandals associated with arms deals? Why do the king and crown prince take turns leaving the country? Why are Abdullah's so-called reforms thwarted by his brother Prince Nayef? And who is the real ruler of Saudi Arabia? All unanswered taboo questions.

On Feb. 23, King Abdullah, 87 and frail, having spent three months abroad undergoing from two operations in New York and recuperating in Morocco, was brought back to Riyadh amid a package of welfare promises worth $36 billion. These were for the most part a rather transparent attempt to appease the burgeoning youth population and deflect it from the lure of revolution -- public-sector salary increases, unemployment benefits, and subsidies for housing, education, and culture.

In years past, such handouts have been welcomed by a population that has grown used to royal largesse, but now the economy of unmet desires is raising the bar. The king, too old and too weak, may have misread the level of disappointment among many Saudis of all political persuasions, who are voicing their complaints on the Internet. The common thread is a demand for genuine political reform. All signs suggest that Saudis are in a rush to seize this unprecedented opportunity to press for serious political change. The response to King Abdullah's handouts on Saudi Facebook sites is the refrain "Man cannot live by bread alone."

Of course, it's not just liberals who are demanding change. A couple of weeks before the king's return, a group of Saudi academics and professionals announced the establishment of a Salafi Islamic Ummah Party and launched a web site. Reformist Salafists are calling for democracy, elections, and respect for human rights. Five of the founding members were immediately put in jail. The king's brother, Prince Talal, disenchanted and politically marginalized but extremely wealthy, went on BBC Arabic television to praise the king and criticize other powerful royal players, the so-called Sudairi Seven (including Crown Prince Sultan, the defense minister; Prince Nayef, the interior minister; and Prince Salman, the governor of Riyadh) without naming them. He revived his 1960s call for constitutional monarchy, which is now being endorsed by some Saudi activists. To date, 119 activists have signed the petition calling for constitutional monarchy. More petitions signed by a cross section of Saudi professionals, academics, and journalists are circulating on the Internet. A broad swatch of Saudi society is now demanding political change.

If Saudis do respond to calls for demonstrations and rise above the old petition syndrome, the majority will be young freethinkers who have had enough of the polarization of Saudi Arabia into two camps: a liberal and an Islamist one, with the Al-Saud family presiding over the widening gap between the two. They want political representation and economic opportunities. An elected parliament is demanded by all.

So far, Saudi Shiites have remained relatively silent, with only minor protests in the Eastern Province. Having watched the Feb. 14 massacre in Bahrain's Pearl Roundabout, they may hesitate to act alone. If they do, it would be quite easy for the regime to mobilize the Sunni majority and crush their protest, exactly as it did in 1979. In fact, the Shiites would do the regime a great favor at a critical moment when its legitimacy among the majority of Sunnis in the country cannot be taken for granted.

The Shiites may have to wait until they form solid coalitions with mainstream Saudi society to remove any sectarian dimension to their demands. The Hijazis along the western coast would be natural allies, as their complaints about the poor infrastructure of their main city Jeddah may act as a catalyst to push for more political rights and autonomy. A liberal constituency there would be more receptive to overtures from the Shiites of the Eastern Province. If Jeddah and Qatif were to unite in their demands, Riyadh would look more isolated than at any other time. It has many supporters among its historical Najdi constituency, but even they are flirting with the global discourse of freedom. And now some Salafists, the puritanical literal interpreters of Islam, are calling for a real shura, in other words democracy.

It seems that the kingdom is at a crossroads. It must either formulate a serious political reform agenda that will assuage an agitated young population or face serious upheavals over the coming months. To respond to public demands, the agenda should above all start with a written constitution, limit the rule of the multiple royal circles of power within the state, regulate royal succession, inaugurate an elected parliament, and open up the political sphere to civil society organizations. Hiding behind Islamic rhetoric such as "Our constitution is the Quran" is no longer a viable escape route. Many Saudis are disenchanted with both official and dissident Islam. They want a new political system that matches their aspirations, education, and abilities, while meeting their basic human, civil, and political rights.

Like other falling Arab regimes before them, the ruling Al-Saud will inevitably seek to scare the population by raising the spectre of al Qaeda and warning against tribal, regional, and sectarian disintegration. They will try to thwart political change before it starts. Saudis may not believe the scaremongers. The command centers of the Arab revolutions today are not the caves of Tora Bora or Riyadh's shabby al-Suwaidi neighborhood, where jihadists shot BBC journalist Frank Gardner and his cameraman in 2004. They are the laptops of a young, connected, knowledgeable, but frustrated generation that is rising against the authoritarian public and private families that have been crushing the individual in the pursuit of illusions and control.

Yes, Egypt was key to the coming change, but when Saudis rise they will change the face of the Arab world and its relations with the West forever. Now is the time for the United States and its allies to understand that the future does not lie with the old clique that they have tolerated, supported, and indulged in return for oil, security, and investment. At a time of shifting Arabian sands, it is in the interest of America and the rest of the world to side with the future not the past.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 05:05

MoonTuna: Feb 11, 2011; by angerbot

It is time to go to war. MY GAS PRICES are above 3.50 a gallon.

What is left to say, United States foreign policy is dismal and non-existant. Look just the other day a Saudi born "immigrant" was found to be a terrorist, yet they are allies.

With friends like these.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 05:09

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

SauceNinja posted:

Doesn't the vast majority of every resource on earth pretty much go to the world market? I want a solar powered flying car and that's never going to happen so long as there's oil in the ground. I'm in favor of drilling.

You clearly have very little understanding about the level of influence oil has on the structure of the human civilization.

Land is tilled using vehicles that run on oil. Fertilizer made from oil is dispersed using vehicles that run on oil. Water is pumped on the crops using electricity generated from natural gas. The crops are farmed from vehicles that are made and run on oil. They're shipped to a processing plant that uses equipment that is made and maintained with oil. Wrapped in plastic that is made from oil. Shipped to a distribution center that then ships it to local grocery stores which use electricity to keep produce cool. You then burn fossil fuels again to drive and pick up your food.

Solar, hydrogen, ethanol cars all require a vast amount of oil to produce.

The level of human suffering that will occur when our oil runs out will be like that our species has never seen.

Sivias fucked around with this message at 06:15 on Mar 1, 2011

# ? Mar 1, 2011 06:12

The Cheshire Cat: Jun 10, 2008; Fun Shoe

Sivias posted:

You clearly have very little understanding about the level of influence oil has on the structure of the human civilization.

Land is tilled using vehicles that run on oil. Fertilizer made from oil is dispersed using vehicles that run on oil. Water is pumped on the crops using electricity generated from natural gas. The crops are farmed from vehicles that are made and run on oil. They're shipped to a processing plant that uses equipment that is made and maintained with oil. Wrapped in plastic that is made from oil. Shipped to a distribution center that then ships it to local grocery stores which use electricity to keep produce cool. You then burn fossil fuels again to drive and pick up your food.

Solar, hydrogen, ethanol cars all require a vast amount of oil to produce.

The level of human suffering that will occur when our oil runs out will be like that our species has never seen.

Well, not entirely true. Technically, it would just send us back to the dark ages, so humanity has suffered like that before. Though it would seem a lot worse going from the internet age to the dark ages than it would just being born in the dark ages.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 06:17

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

The Cheshire Cat posted:

Well, not entirely true. Technically, it would just send us back to the dark ages, so humanity has suffered like that before. Though it would seem a lot worse going from the internet age to the dark ages than it would just being born in the dark ages.

Not even close. Here is a chart of the human population:

Notice how the dramatic population increase happens exactly when the industrial era occurs. The industrial revolution is impossible without oil.
Before the industrial revolution, the energy we pulled out of the earth was directly related to the amount of sunlight the earth received. Crops grow, we harvest, etc.
Oil is basically ancient sunlight energy. We've figured out how to utilize that energy (albeit very inefficiently).

e: (When I said human suffering when the oil runs out, I of course mean the transitional phase. The human species will continue - no doubt. But our planet is unsustainable and the population will crash. It's no different than a petri dish of bacteria, or a herd of antelope. With population increase, the population must then decrease according to it's environment.)

Sivias fucked around with this message at 06:28 on Mar 1, 2011

# ? Mar 1, 2011 06:25

The Cheshire Cat: Jun 10, 2008; Fun Shoe

Hmm, you raise a good point; I forgot to account for the dramatic difference in population since then. So a lot of people would probably die, THEN we'd be in the dark ages.

You know what kind of sucks? The fact that Nuclear power never really caught on because people didn't really understand how it works. It's a LOT cleaner than most of the popular forms of power we use now; obviously nuclear waste is EXTREMELY toxic, but miniscule amounts are produced compared to the pollution generated by burning coal/oil. It's not quite "renewable", since it does depend on a raw material, but it takes very little of said material to generate staggering amounts of power.

Sadly this is one of those cases where it was the LEFT being reactionary idiots and acting against their own interests (because replacing coal and gas plants would have massively reduced pollution); take note, liberals! Using your brain is still a requirement even if you're on the progressive side of politics!

So now the nuclear plants we have are the only ones we'll EVER have, unless the world finally gets over Three Mile Island and Chernobyl (both of which were caused because the safety procedures which ALREADY EXISTED at that point were not being followed. Also nobody actually died from Three Mile Island).

Still. Maybe the unrest in the middle east will get the world thinking about its reliance on oil, even if it doesn't end up leading to a global economic meltdown.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 06:37

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

The Cheshire Cat posted:

You know what kind of sucks? The fact that Nuclear power never really caught on because...

This, my friend, is called 'bargaining'. The middle east and Greece is currently going through 'Anger'. (Quit skipping steps!)

In reality, it takes some 13 years of seeding, planning, getting licences, location (Nuclear energy comes from steam, remember. Which requires an absurd amount of water). Just a small list. And this doesn't even include the resources required to produce a nuclear power plant is enormous. You don't just throw a stone of uranium into a bucket. Then there is of course the question of increasing your sample size, the larger the chance of an accident happening. (0 days since last accident doesn't really help in a global catastrophe)

You could go on and on in the resources and training required to construct and maintain nuclear power on a large scale. But nuclear power doesn't fuel cars, make tires, or lubricate machinery. (Of which is also required to run the turbines.)

I wish Nuclear energy was the answer because that'd be an easy solution.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 06:50

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

So should we suicide now or wait until the food riots?

Peak oil related sarcasm aside it is certainly not going to be a fun transitional period even if you are a technological optimist.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 06:52

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

Looks like within the past 24 hours Gaddafi has had three brigadiers and an air force pilot defect, and AFP is echoing rebel reports that he sacked his intelligence chief and replaced him with a bodyguard. If defections and staff shuffling continues at this rate then I can't see how the regime can last even another 10 days.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 06:56

dao Jones: Jul 17, 2009

Sivias posted:

The level of human suffering that will occur when our oil runs out will be like that our species has never seen.

I think this is a little extreme. I agree with your analysis only with the assumption that oil would run out abruptly. If all the oil in the world disappeared tomorrow, I agree that it would be worse than the Dark Ages, mainly because there are immense numbers of humans to suffer terribly the intense chaos.

However, there are many people, some with lots of money, trying to chart all of this. As we run low on that Easy Sippin' Light Sweet Crude (That the Saudis have, and who knows exactly how much THEY have left) and have to eat more Canadian Rock Oil and Under the Ocean's Couch Cushions Oil, the price will go up.

I'm not going to guess a timetable, but I think all of the smart money is on "Oil will continue trending upwards in price in the Long Term". The natural extrapolation is that Energy as a whole financial sphere will trend upwards in price. The only possible exception I think would be if someone was able to economically synthesize petroleum.

Basically I am saying that it will happen gradually rather than abruptly. And when oil hits $200/barrel, at whatever point in the future, alternative energy sources will have already been looking quite lucrative for some time. The impact of dwindling oil reserves depends on how many people realize this fact and at what time.

Now, in the short-term, interruption of oil supplies would absolutely wreak havoc on the global economy according to the scale of the interruption. And there is no doubt that a significant interruption would be a terrible blow to an already weak economic situation and who can say what would happen if that situation gets bad enough...

I hope that the results of the current situation in the Middle East leads to more democracy across the board. And maybe a disruption in the oil supply would be the exact kick the world needs to take energy alternatives more seriously. But I do hope we can avoid the suffering that would result from a true economic-meltdown-sized kick.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 06:57

The Cheshire Cat: Jun 10, 2008; Fun Shoe

Sivias posted:

This, my friend, is called 'bargaining'. The middle east and Greece is currently going through 'Anger'. (Quit skipping steps!)

In reality, it takes some 13 years of seeding, planning, getting licences, location (Nuclear energy comes from steam, remember. Which requires an absurd amount of water). Just a small list. And this doesn't even include the resources required to produce a nuclear power plant is enormous. You don't just throw a stone of uranium into a bucket. Then there is of course the question of increasing your sample size, the larger the chance of an accident happening. (0 days since last accident doesn't really help in a global catastrophe)

You could go on and on in the resources and training required to construct and maintain nuclear power on a large scale. But nuclear power doesn't fuel cars, make tires, or lubricate machinery. (Of which is also required to run the turbines.)

I wish Nuclear energy was the answer because that'd be an easy solution.

Well the point really is that the current oil crisis would have been lessened if some of the energy burden had been offloaded to nuclear power back when it was first developed, instead of suddenly halting production, not for economic reasons, but out of fear.

I agree it wouldn't solve the problem, but with more electricity available and less reliance oil to produce it, things like the electric car might have proved to be more popular (or at least, the oil companies would have had powerful competition in the form of the nuclear power companies to fight against their suppression of the technology). Still not sustainable, but a lot closer than we were. From there it's on to solar power, then if I remember my Sim City correctly you get Microwave power, then Fusion power and it's just a matter of building Arcologies and blasting off into space.

I suppose it's easy to say "Well that's how they SHOULD have done it" in retrospect. It's just kind of annoying to see that they already HAD something, and then just... stopped.

The Cheshire Cat fucked around with this message at 07:01 on Mar 1, 2011

# ? Mar 1, 2011 06:57

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

MothraAttack posted:

Looks like within the past 24 hours Gaddafi has had three brigadiers and an air force pilot defect, and AFP is echoing rebel reports that he sacked his intelligence chief and replaced him with a bodyguard. If defections and staff shuffling continues at this rate then I can't see how the regime can last even another 10 days.

The problem that I've seen is many of the brigadier defections are occurring in the east, where they were already nominally independent because of isolation. To turn that into real movement against the regime they need to push through Ghaddafi held areas in Central Libya to open supply lines to the warzones in the west.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:00

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Space resources and energy seem to be the best long term solution that allows for something resembling a commodious lifestyle. (Less lush than what we have, but with electric power, enough extraneous energy for industry and to run water cleaning stations, etc.) Even if we don't colonize.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:00

TheBalor: Jun 18, 2001

Hmm, could we use alternative energy sources to provide for our fuel needs while using synthetic oil processes to fill industrial/chemical needs? I remember there was a lot of hubbub a few years ago about Thermal Depolymerization being able to take animal waste and convert it into oil.

edit: Bleh

TheBalor fucked around with this message at 07:24 on Mar 1, 2011

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:03

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

TheBalor posted:

Hmm, could we use alternative energy sources to provide for our fuel needs while using synthetic oil processes to fill industrial/chemical needs? I remember there was a lot of hubbub a few years ago about Thermal Depolymerization being able to take animal waste and convert it into oi.

Unfortunately, skinhead music isn't an acceptable replacement for gasoline.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:09

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

I recall hearing about the Canadians building a CANDU reactor in Alberta to offset the energy costs from cracking oil sands. Essentially, instead of using the 10 barrels of oil to recover 1 bbl, they'll use electricity generated by the reactor to do it.

Of course, we probably won't see the prospective plant finished until 2017.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:15

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Roark posted:

^^^ Since there's been defections of troops reported, surely there's someone who knows how to operate an old Soviet tank?

Presumably so, although you'd a full crew to use it effectively. T-54 has no autoloader, it takes practise to know how to drive, and the commander is the only one who can see a bit of the surroundings.

But probably the biggest issue would be logistical support. Those old Russian tanks are not very reliable anyway, and Libyan military has been in a state of decay. I don't think you'd be able to drive from Benghazi to Tripoli with that... or even around the block.

Nessus posted:

Unfortunately, skinhead music isn't an acceptable replacement for gasoline.

I like the definition, though. "Oi is a byproduct of animal waste."

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:20

TheBalor: Jun 18, 2001

Nessus posted:

Unfortunately, skinhead music isn't an acceptable replacement for gasoline.

Fixed my post. I'm still interested in an answer to the question, though. If we can switch away from fossil fuels on our power-generation needs, might we be able to use synthetic oil and remaining reserves to stretch out our supply for a good deal longer? Or is the lion's share of oil used in these industrial applications?

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:26

Mr.Showtime: Oct 22, 2006; I'm not going to say that

Young Freud posted:

I recall hearing about the Canadians building a CANDU reactor in Alberta to offset the energy costs from cracking oil sands. Essentially, instead of using the 10 barrels of oil to recover 1 bbl, they'll use electricity generated by the reactor to do it.

Of course, we probably won't see the prospective plant finished until 2017.

Where did you hear all of this because none of what you wrote at all is correct.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:31

Apology: Nov 12, 2005; by Y Kant Ozma Post

Got my daily fix of Ivory Coast news:

quote:

C�te d'Ivoire: Ban Calls for Compliance With Arms Embargo
28 February 2011

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has called for full compliance with the arms embargo placed on C�te d'Ivoire, in the wake of reports that attack helicopters have been provided to forces loyal to former president Laurent Gbagbo.

"The Secretary-General demands full compliance with the arms embargo and warns both the supplier of this military equipment and Mr. Gbagbo that appropriate action will be taken in response to the violation," Mr. Ban's spokesperson said in a statement issued overnight, which said that the reported delivery of the helicopters and other material could be "a serious violation" of the arms embargo, mandated by the Security Council, which has been in place since 2004.

C�te d'Ivoire has been caught in a political deadlock with growing reports of tension and violence - between rival groups as well as on UN peacekeepers - since Mr. Gbagbo refused to leave office after he was defeated by opposition leader Alassane Ouattara in a presidential election held last November.

The spokesperson's statement added that the violation of the embargo has been brought to the attention of the Security Council committee charged with the responsibility for sanctions against C�te d'Ivoire.

Speaking to the press today, Mr. Ban's spokesperson stated that the UN peacekeeping mission in the West African country - the UN Operation in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI) - reported that a flight carrying some of the helicopter parts landed at the capital, Yamoussoukro. A team made up of members of the group of experts and an UNOCI officer travelled to the city's airport but was unable to verify the information and was forced to withdraw when they were fired upon by armed elements.

On Monday, some media reports identified Belarus as the source of the helicopters and equipment. In a statement posted on the website of the country's Permanent Mission to the United Nations, in New York, the spokesperson from Belarus' foreign ministry denied the reports, noting that "the Republic of Belarus has always regarded UN Security Council's decisions very responsibly."

In the statement issued overnight, Mr. Ban's spokesperson said the Secretary-General has asked UNOCI to monitor the situation closely and to take all necessary action, within its mandate, to ensure that the delivered equipment is not prepared for use.

Last week, the Secretary-General reiterated his deep concern over the deteriorating situation in C�te d'Ivoire. Last year's election was meant to be the culmination of efforts to reunify the country, which was split by civil war in 2002 into a government-controlled south and a rebel-held north.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201103010063.html

Belaruuuuussss!!! :argh:

Do not shoot at and/or kidnap the UN workers, Gbagbo :nyd:

quote:

Gbagbo forces fire at UN experts in ICoast
March 1, 2011 - 4:14PM
AFP

Forces loyal to Ivory Coast strongman Laurent Gbagbo have opened fire on UN sanctions experts who tried to check on a suspected breach of the international arms embargo of the country, a UN source says.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon accused Belarus of breaking the embargo by sending three attack helicopters and other equipment to Gbagbo, who refuses to hand over power to internationally-recognised president Alassane Ouattara. Belarus denied the charges.

Tensions were further heightened when Gbagbo supporters briefly kidnapped two Ukrainian UN workers, the UN said.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/gbagbo-forces-fire-at-un-experts-in-icoast-20110301-1bc2m.html

And things are moving right along in Oman:

quote:

MANAMA, Bahrain � Anti-government protesters blockaded Bahrain's parliament and crowded outside the state-owned television station on Monday in the latest effort to force the monarchy to step down.

Anti-government Shiite protesters perform the noon prayer at Pearl Square in Bahrain's capital Manama.
The parliament, which is appointed by Bahrain's ruler, had to delay its work for several hours when protesters blocked an entrance. Demonstrators then moved to the state TV headquarters, chanting slogans.
The uprising in Bahrain was the first in the Persian Gulf region to emerge from a protest movement in the Arab world that began in Algeria.

Bahrain's crown prince accused some opposition groups of hurting the country's economy by declining to engage in a national dialogue, the state-run Bahrain News Agency reported.
"There are some who do not want to reform or work to obstruct it by unacceptable means," Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa was quoted as saying. That is hurting "the interests of the citizens," the financial industry and the economy, he said.
The crown prince called for a national dialogue to help end political turmoil and mainly Shiite protests. Seven people have been killed in the demonstrations.
In Oman, protesters set fire to a supermarket and rallied at two places in Sohar, marking the third consecutive day of unrest that has included deadly clashes in the strategic Gulf nation. Security forces sealed off main roads to Sohar in an attempt to keep crowds from swelling.
Omar al-Abri, an official at the state-run Oman News Agency, said one person was confirmed dead Sunday after police used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse hundreds of protesters.
The Associated Press reported that a supermarket was set on fire Monday and that several hundred protesters � mostly young men � were rallying to demand higher salaries, jobs for unemployed youth and the dismissal of some government ministers.
By late afternoon, protests spread to Sohar's port, Oman's second largest. The AP reported that about 500 protesters blocked trucks from entering the port.
State news media reported Sohar's civilian guards, including members of women's associations, repelled protesters' attempts to set fire to a health center and several commercial sites.
Oman is ruled by a powerful family dynasty and shares control with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf � the route for about 40% of the world's oil-tanker traffic.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2011-02-28-oman-protests_N.htm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Holy poo poo, this is bad-rear end:

quote:

In Libya, an unlikely hero of a youth-led revolution
By Leila Fadel
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, February 28, 2011; 10:41 PM
BENGHAZI, LIBYA - Mehdi Mohammed Zeyo was the most unlikely of revolutionary heroes. The bespectacled 49-year-old worked in the supplies department of the state-owned oil company. He was a diabetic with two teenage daughters.

But something snapped inside him as a youth-led uprising in Libya against the government of Moammar Gaddafi quickly turned bloody.

For days Zeyo had carried the bodies of teenage boys from outside a security base in the center of the city where Gaddafi's militiamen fired on young protesters. Every day he went with hundreds of others to the cemeteries to bury the boys. His outrage grew, until Zeyo quietly made a decision, according to his family, friends and witnesses to his fiery death.

On the morning of Feb. 20, he walked down the stairs of his apartment building with a gas canister hoisted on his shoulder, witnesses said. He put two canisters inside his trunk of his car, along with a tin can full of gunpowder. Driving toward the base, he flashed the victory sign to the young men protesting outside and hit the gas pedal.

Gaddafi's security forces sprayed his black car with bullets, setting off a powerful explosion, witnesses said. The blast tore a hole in the base's front gate, allowing scores of young protesters and soldiers who had defected to stream inside. That night, the opposition won the battle for the base, and for Benghazi, as Gaddafi's forces retreated.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/28/AR2011022805298.html?hpid=topnews&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I want to see that video; I haven't been able to find it. Mehdi Mohammed Zeyo, I salute you.

Think your job sucks? Imagine how much more it would suck if they didn't even pay you:

(translated from French by Google Chrome)

quote:

Walking and teachers strike for Wednesday, March 2 at Tizi Ouzou
28/02/2011 - 18:39

Tizi-Ouzou (Siwela) - The Union staff education and training (UNPEF) called teachers of the wilaya of Tizi-Ouzou to walk, Wednesday, March 2, to denounce the unsupported grievances relating to financial situations and unpaid officials.

According to a statement given to Siwel the UNPEF indicates that the goal is to "denounce the vagueness surrounding the management of records relating to salary arrears remained unpaid since 2001 to date" and "push the authorities to treat cases remained pending at the public treasury. "

The union said that there are over 13,000 unpaid wages that remain unpaid despite any pressure. He said that the market experienced a stop at the headquarters of the public treasury to denounce "the blockage of this institution."

The UNPEF indicates that the course will be punctuated by a rally outside the headquarters of the Directorate of Education in Tizi-Ouzou.

This story is from Algeria btw

http://www.siwel.info/Marche-et-greve-des-enseignants-pour-le-mercredi-2-mars-a-Tizi-Ouzou_a668.html <---and this will be in French if you don't have Google Chrome

Doesn't seem to matter whether you're a public school teacher or a religious school teacher or a priest in Algeria, either, your poo poo is not gettin' paid:

(Also translated from French)

quote:

Imams call for increased wages
Monday, February 28 at 21:23

They questioned the Minister in Blida
The Minister of Religious Affairs, Mr. Ghlamallah was yesterday in Blida, where he met the wilaya of the Imams, especially after leaving last week, during which they had demanded payment of their salaries - January and February - as well as improving their social conditions.
At first glance, the Minister said that "some want to train imams for ulterior purposes, which does not fit with their function is to educate and guide the" Ummah ". Turning to the rumor that the imams were planning to hold a "silent khutba", he said he did not believe that the imams have said that.
He later recalled, the role of the imam in the education of society and the spread of Islamic sciences, but "some do not accept that the mosque shape public opinion for the good of society." Concerning the situation of the imam, he declared that the ministry was not created to control it but to resolve its problems, as indeed for that of the wilaya, or other directions.
On housing, Mr. Ghlamallah says his department does not open the mosque if there is no accommodation for the imam on call in it, while for the wage, it is mainly premiums that have been cited.
Indeed, he stated that "we could not accept those that have been proposed last year by the public because they were too weak to guarantee that other more substantial than we expected this year ". Even the promotion has been supported.
The relationship between the imam and mosque committees, often tense, were also cited by the minister recalled that the ministerial decree defines and that both parties must meet to avoid interaction with the prerogatives Imam or the committee.
But, when he wanted to leave the room, the minister was recalled by the imams who deputed spokespersons to express all their claims which relate mainly to housing, promotion, salary increases and the promulgation the special status of the corporation. For housing, for example, imams are wondering why they will always live in the mosque instead of receiving a housing like all other citizens "to which they belong."
They also made the parallel between their salaries and those of other sectors that have received substantial increases. In the end, the Minister promised to take care of their problems as soon as possible, while reiterating that the doors of the ministry remained wide open for their grievances.
Taha Mansour

http://www.algerie360.com/algerie/des-imams-reclament-une-augmentation-des-salaires/ <---also in French

I found this entire article on China fascinating, and if you don't like it, don't read it then:

quote:

Well-Oiled Security Apparatus in China Stifles Calls for Change
By ANDREW JACOBS and JONATHAN ANSFIELD
Published: February 28, 2011

BEIJING � The call to action shot across mobile phones and Internet chat sites, urging people to converge on 13 Chinese cities to demand an end to corruption, inflation and the strictures of authoritarian rule. �The Chinese people do not have the patience to wait any longer,� said one message.

Police arrested a man in front of the Peace Cinema in downtown Shanghai after calls for a �Jasmine Revolution� protest on Sunday.
The anonymous organizers got a sizable turnout � but in China, most of those who poured into squares and shopping centers were police officers and plainclothes security agents.

Two months of upheaval in the Mideast have cast doubt on the staying power of all authoritarian governments. But in China calls for change are so far being met with political controls wielded by authorities who, even during a period of rising prosperity and national pride, have not taken their staying power for granted.

The nearly instantaneous deployment of the police to prevent even notional gatherings in big cities the past two weeks is just one example of what Chinese officials call �stability maintenance.� This refers to a raft of policies and practices refined after �color revolutions� abroad and, at home, tens of thousands of demonstrations by workers and peasants, ethnic unrest, and the spread of mobile communications and broadband networking.

Chinese officials charged with ensuring security, lavishly financed and permitted to operate above the law, have remained perpetually on edge, employing state-of-the-art surveillance, technologically sophisticated censorship, new crime-fighting tools, as well as proactive efforts to resolve labor and land disputes, all to prevent any organized or sustained resistance to single-party rule.

�It is a comprehensive call to arms for the entire bureaucracy to promote social stability,� said Murray Scot Tanner, a China security analyst at C.N.A., a private research group in Alexandria, Va.

Since the first widespread calls for Middle East-style demonstrations in China were published two weeks ago on an American Web site that is blocked in China, the police have reacted with brutal efficiency. They have placed more than 100 dissidents and human rights campaigners under house arrest and threatened others who forwarded messages about the protests, and have detained six prominent lawyers and activists on suspicion of inciting subversion. Censors have also intensified the filters on microblogs, already among the tightest in the world.

At an unpublicized meeting in February, the Politburo outlined heightened controls to prevent the type of revolts that toppled governments in Egypt and Tunisia, said one ranking journalist who declined to be named.

�The crackdown has been the most severe we�ve seen in years,� said Wang Songlian, a researcher at Chinese Human Rights Defenders.

Despite persistent calls for political reform among the country�s small and embattled group of human rights advocates, most analysts agreed that China faced a smaller risk of street unrest than did Egypt, Libya and Bahrain. Unlike those countries, where oligarchic rule and high unemployment have fed discontent, China�s leaders have largely tamed widespread antipathy through policies that have led to robust economic growth and through selective repression that most Chinese have come to tolerate.

Over the past five years, stability maintenance, known as �weiwen� in Chinese, has become a multiagency juggernaut that relies on a sophisticated menu of Internet censorship, the harassment of blacklisted troublemakers and an industrial complex of paid informants and contractors. The vast bureaucracy extends from the Politiburo Standing Committee�s chief law enforcer, Zhou Yongkang, to neighborhood �safety patrol� volunteers on the lookout for Falun Gong members and low-level clashes that can mushroom into large-scale disturbances.

The party has matched this tight fist with a buildup of mediation techniques and manpower within party organizations and a system of rewards and punishments for bureaucrats who fulfill � or fail to meet � social harmony goals.

The problem, critics say, is that the high-level pressures to achieve stability often force local officials to clamp down on the symptoms of social discontent rather than address the underlying inequities. That feeds a spiral of new abuses and controls. Just as troubling, legal scholars and judges say, is a party drive to prioritize defusing conflict over adjudication by law.

Yu Jianrong, a leading sociologist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has been blogging and traveling the country to warn local officials that the fixation on weiwen fuels government mistrust. �It is tantamount to drinking poison to quench one�s thirst,� he recently wrote in Caixin weekly.

During a study session last month for provincial and ministerial leaders, President Hu Jintao called for a mix of increased Internet controls and investment in local government services to reduce �inharmonious factors to the minimum.�

Under a new five-year development plan, which is expected to be passed at the annual legislative sessions that begin this week in Beijing, officials pledge new �social management� mechanisms to pacify unrest.

Still, studies suggest such outbreaks have yet to subside.

Shanghai�s Jiaotong University, in its annual report on crisis management released this year, tallied 72 �major incidents� of social unrest in 2010, compared with 60 in 2009. Crises hit the media faster too: about 33 percent were reported the day they occurred, 67 percent on the Internet.

Combating social instability is also increasingly costly.

China budgeted an estimated $77 billion for public security alone last year, according to a Tsinghua University study that was based on official police budgets, putting the costs of internal security almost on par with national defense spending. Some experts say the true number may be even higher.

Liaoning Province in northeastern China devoted 15 percent of its revenues to weiwen last year, according to media reports. Lianjiang, in southern Guangdong Province, acknowledged spending as much on stability maintenance in 2009 as it did in the previous five years combined.

�There�s such a nervousness of letting things get out of control that even students complaining about the price of food in the school canteen will be reported as social instability,� said David Kelly, a visiting scholar at Peking University who studies the stability maintenance system.

The strategy took root in the late 1990s as China grappled with mass layoffs caused by the privatization of state-owned enterprises, and accelerated in 2004 when a new brand of legal activism emerged in China and the color revolutions swept aside authoritarian rulers in the former Soviet republics.

But what began as a governing strategy morphed into an entrenched bureaucracy as China reacted to a series of pivotal challenges, including the 2008 Olympics, ethnic rioting in Tibet and Xinjiang, and Charter �08, a petition calling for Western-style democratic liberties that proliferated online and led to the jailing of Liu Xiaobo, the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize winner, who helped draft it.

While Mr. Hu has directed the push, the country�s security and propaganda authorities have seized on such events �to get as much money and power as possible,� said an editor at a party publication who spoke off the record because he feared repercussions.

In the past few years, thousands of stability maintenance offices have opened, and more than 300,000 government functionaries have been enlisted in �community service management,� according to Xinhua, the state news service. Local officials have cycled through Beijing for instruction in tactics to disrupt the Internet and disperse crowds with talks rather than force, and for training in �channeling public opinion.�

In an article last year in The Southern Daily newspaper, officials in Lianjiang boasted how the city had installed surveillance cameras at major intersections, hired several thousand neighborhood informants and established the �Flying Tigers,� a patrol of 340 young men recruited to assist the police in handling unrest.

A �peace prize� of up to $22 was awarded to local leaders who successfully stamped out trouble in their jurisdictions. As a result, officials said, there were no �mass incidents� in the first eight months of 2010, and the number of people filing complaints in Beijing dropped 25 percent.

�The facts demonstrate that stability can be bought,� Xu Shun, the Lianjiang party secretary, told the newspaper.

Propaganda officials have come to consider the Internet the front line of defense against instability.

Central propaganda authorities determined in 2009 that local officials had two hours or less on average to contain news of �sudden incidents� from escalating on the Internet, though it remained a tough chore.

Under one government initiative, software engineers have been developing an automated system that can track trending topics and better pinpoint potentially disruptive news, according to industry experts.

�For example, at what point will a debate peak and drift more toward antigovernment sentiment?� one executive said. �They need to find the right time to step in and control it, but not appear too restrictive.�

Under the mandates of weiwen, judges and legal scholars say the judicial system has largely abandoned two decades of reform and returned to the Mao-era practice of mediation that many lawyers describe as coercive.

Judicial promotions are increasingly tied to the ability to settle or dismiss cases and prevent litigants from appealing court decisions or filing petitions � an age-old form of redress in which the aggrieved file complaints with the authorities.

Carl Minzner, an expert in Chinese law at Washington University in St. Louis, said many courts will coerce plaintiffs into settling lawsuits regardless of the facts or will simply obstruct them from filing lawsuits in the first place. To illustrate this shift, he cited a �model judge� of 2010, Chen Yanping, who was lionized by the Supreme People�s Court for using mediation to resolve 3,100 cases without a single appeal or petition.

The flow of money dedicated to stability has also spawned shady businesses like �black jails,� the extralegal holding pens for the petitioners who flood Beijing to file complaints against the authorities in their hometowns. The Chinese media have exposed how private security companies in the capital, some with connections to the police, have rounded up petitioners in Beijing on behalf of some 70 local governments.

Like the excesses of weiwen, the disproportionate crackdown on China�s phantom Jasmine Revolution could also fuel new discontent. Last week the authorities in Beijing told some members of unauthorized churches not to gather on Sunday, and in cryptic conversations, they sought to dissuade foreign reporters from covering the rallies. Instead, they showed up in droves.

�Limiting people�s freedom and trying to restrict the flow of information isn�t dealing with the underlying problems China faces,� said Pu Zhiqiang, a human rights lawyer who said he has been trailed for a week by plainclothes security agents. �I think this strategy is only going to create more enemies of the government.�

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/asia/01china.html?pagewanted=1&utm_medium=twitter&_r=1&utm_source=twitterfeed

This calls for many, many, many false flag and disinformation campaigns to keep the authorities running to and fro, chasing phony stories of "social instability", until the whole weiwen system collapses. If I was in charge of the anti-weiwen program, I'd alternate stories of monks planning to set themselves afire in protest with student uprising stories and proposed Falun-gong public gassings to keep the Chinese secret police on their toes. I'm sure I could come up with some more misinformation campaigns if I really thought about it for a while.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:43

de_dust: Jan 21, 2009; she had tiny Italian boobs.
Well that's my story.

Mr.Showtime posted:

Where did you hear all of this because none of what you wrote at all is correct.

I think it all comes from Gary Lunn, who has a serious hardon for all things ATOMZ.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:46

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

It would be a seriously sweet, ecstatic thing if this thing spread also to Belarus.

But maybe not yet, it's a lovely weather to protest in. We don't want Belarusian toes to get cold! :belarus:

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:50

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Mr.Showtime posted:

Where did you hear all of this because none of what you wrote at all is correct.

I've heard it being thrown around for awhile, but doing a search for "oil sands canada CANDU", I got:
a 1999 publication from the Canadian Nuclear Society regarding a "pollution-free" alternative to tapping the oil sands by using nuclear reactors;

2003 report from the Canadian Energy Research Institute regarding the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of using steam generated from the ACR-700 CANDU reactor;

and a 2009 report from Atomic Energy of Canada Limited dealing with prospective reactor types such as ACR-1000 and SuperCANDU in cracking oil sands.

The proposed reactor in Alberta comes from a CBC article on the Energy Alberta Corporation filing an application in 2007 to construct a reactor 30km from Peace River. It would likely go live in 2017.

The 10 barrels per 1 barrel of oil came from a poster in this thread.

# ? Mar 1, 2011 07:52

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 03:16

RoofieMyselfForFun: Apr 5, 2010

In grammar school I got Belarus as my country of interest to do a social studies project on. Needless to say I was among the most boring of all the subjects... so if Belarus does protest, it will more than likely be one of the most uneventful we've seen yet :colbert:

# ? Mar 1, 2011 08:22

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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