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Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Pedrophile posted:

Is it just me or did Obama's latest speech call for a beefing up of the NATO force?

It does quite sound a bit like that, yeah. Keep in mind it's a speech to the UK, whose forces are even more actively evolved in Libya than the US. It's important for Obama to emphasize the close military relationship and that the US won't abandon the UK in a potential Libya quagmire. I expect his rhetoric will relax once he gets back to the US, since he's anxious not to portray the US as too actively involved.

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Pedrophile
Feb 25, 2011

by angerbot
Really you have to take the whole speech into context because before that part I think he was talking about a more committed NATO force.


Link to the video straight from the White House: http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2011/05/25/president-obama-addresses-british-parliament

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
Ah I see what you're saying

quote:

Indeed, our efforts in this young century have led us to a new concept for NATO that will give us the capabilities needed to meet new threats: terrorism and piracy, cyber attacks and ballistic missiles. But a revitalized NATO will continue to hew to that original vision of its founders, allowing us to rally collective action for the defense of our people, while building upon the broader belief of Roosevelt and Churchill that all nations have both rights and responsibilities, and share a common interest in an international architecture that keeps the peace.

We also share a common interest in stopping the spread of nuclear weapons. Across the globe, nations are locking down nuclear materials so they never fall into the wrong hands. From North Korea to Iran, we have sent a message that those who flaunt their obligations will face consequences -- which is why America and the European Union just recently strengthened our sanctions on Iran. And while we hold others to account, we will meet our own obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and strive for a world without nuclear weapons.

We share a common interest in resolving conflicts that prolong human suffering, and threaten to tear whole regions asunder. In Sudan, after years of war and thousands of deaths, we call on both North and South to pull back from the brink of violence and choose the path of peace. And in the Middle East, we stand united in our support for a secure Israel and a sovereign Palestine.

It's not specific to NATO involvement in Libya as much as just further emphasizing the importance of the "special relationship."

But I agree, I wouldn't be surprised if the US got further involved when a clear endgame appears in Libya.

Mr. Sunshine
May 15, 2008

This is a scrunt that has been in space too long and become a Lunt (Long Scrunt)

Fun Shoe

Brown Moses posted:

The French newspaper reports that Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi yesterday denied that Gaddafi’s son Saif al-Arab and three of Gaddafi’s grandchildren died in a NATO strike on April 30th. Citing this alleged death, Silvio Berlusconi said that “the coalition was not involved, it was propaganda, and the story of the three grandchildren was also unfounded. ” “This is the information of our services,” he added, referring presumably the Italian military secret service.

This had me thinking. If we assume that Saif and those unnamed grandchildren are dead, and NATO knows it, would they:
A) Lie about it, to avoid looking like babykillers
or
B) Be open with it, to use Saif's death as propaganda to show what happens when you support Gaddafi?

Scaramouche
Mar 26, 2001

SPACE FACE! SPACE FACE!

Lascivious Sloth posted:

If the US wanted to prop a dictator up in Libya and Egypt they would have stood behind Ghadaffi and Mubarak and not pushed to impose sanctions and bring them down. It's obvious that the US Middle East policy is changing under Obama. I wouldn't be surprised if the opening of the Egypt border was heavily influenced by the US (and possibly a hint to Israel to push for the Palestinian state.)

While I don't dislike the guy I think the US Middle East Policy would change under anyone at this point. If Obama can be on top of it and actually decide to do good instead of prop up US incumbents I'd be ecstatic. Instead I'm expecting luke warm congratulations where poo poo's got real (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia) and the status quo where it hasn't (Bahrain, Yemen, Syria).

Pureauthor
Jul 8, 2010

ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST
Ah, at this point I'm pretty sure poo poo is, in fact, real in Yemen.

Syria... I dunno, it's like in a perpetual stage of tipping over the edge.

AllanGordon
Jan 26, 2010

by Shine

Scaramouche posted:

While I don't dislike the guy I think the US Middle East Policy would change under anyone at this point. If Obama can be on top of it and actually decide to do good instead of prop up US incumbents I'd be ecstatic. Instead I'm expecting luke warm congratulations where poo poo's got real (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia) and the status quo where it hasn't (Bahrain, Yemen, Syria).

He did put sanctions on Assad and told Saleh to step down in Yemen. Outside of pushing for UN sanctions I don't really know what else he can do.

Guess if Syria really starts to genocide their populace we'll do another "no fly zone", but I'm not sure if the Chinese or the Russians would sign off a second time by abstaining.

Kenning
Jan 11, 2009

I really want to post goatse. Instead I only have these🍄.



A no fly zone wouldn't do much in Syria, the geography's too complicated. It's not Libya's single road on flat terrain on the coast.

Svartvit
Jun 18, 2005

al-Qabila samaa Bahth

AllanGordon posted:

He did put sanctions on Assad and told Saleh to step down in Yemen. Outside of pushing for UN sanctions I don't really know what else he can do.

What about Saudi Arabia? What about Bahrain? There's a lot Obama could do if he wanted to.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

quote:

Exclusive: Battered Libya sues for peace

As President Obama vows 'We will not relent until the shadow of tyranny is lifted', Gaddafi's Prime Minister offers Nato a ceasefire, amnesty for rebels, reconciliation, constitutional government – and an exit strategy

By Kim Sengupta and Solomon Hughes


The Libyan regime is preparing to make a fresh overture to the international community, offering concessions designed to end the bloodshed of the three-month-long civil war.

The Independent has obtained a copy of a letter from the country's Prime Minister, Al-Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi, being sent to a number of foreign governments. It proposes an immediate ceasefire to be monitored by the United Nations and the African Union, unconditional talks with the opposition, amnesty for both sides in the conflict, and the drafting of a new constitution.

David Cameron and Barack Obama met yesterday to try to find an exit strategy from a conflict increasingly appearing to have no definitive military solution in sight. The US President acknowledged that the allies now seem to face a long, attritional campaign.

Behind the scenes, there are signs that Western powers may agree to a ceasefire without the precondition of Muammar Gaddafi and his immediate family going into exile.

Both the British Prime Minister and the US President declared yesterday that the Libyan dictator must leave the country. However senior officials from both sides of the Atlantic increasingly indicate that talks should start if the regime forces end their military action, and there are also genuine signs that Colonel Gaddafi is relinquishing direct control of the state apparatus.

Unusually, Dr Mahmoudi's letter makes no mention of Colonel Gaddafi's role in the country's future. Previous regime communiqués have insisted that the Colonel will fight on, while other proposals, notably by his son Saif al-Islam, envisaged Colonel Gaddafi staying on as a figurehead as a period of transition gets under way.

The alliance led by Britain, France and the US has put its stock in backing the Libyan revolutionaries. Although the rebels in the port of Misrata have thrown back regime troops besieging their city, the main rebel force in the east of the country has failed to make any headway despite two months of Nato bombing. Meanwhile the opposition's political leadership, based in Benghazi – some of them senior former regime officials – insists that no talks can be held until Colonel Gaddafi and his family go into exile.

Whitehall sources say there is a widespread feeling that the Cameron government "set the bar too high" in stating that the departure of the Libyan leader was a prerequisite for a deal to end the strife.

"They thought he would do a runner like Ben Ali [in Tunisia] and Mubarak [in Egypt]," said one. "We know we will have to deal with members of the regime in the future. After all, a lot of the rebel council are former regime people. We should give the people in Tripoli some wriggle room to help them ease out Gaddafi."

Dr Mahmoudi's letter stated: "The future Libya will be radically different to the one that existed three months ago. That was always the plan. Only now we may need to accelerate the process. But to do so, we must stop the fighting, start talking, agree on a new constitution and create a system of government that both reflects the reality of our society and conforms to the demands of contemporary governance.

"We must immediately make humanitarian assistance available to all Libyans in need whether they are in Libya or outside. The cycle of violence must be replaced by a cycle of reconciliation. Both sides need the incentive to move out of their corner and to engage in a process that will lead to consensus."

The Libyan Prime Minister's initiative follows meetings held with Ban Ki-moon which led to the United Nations Secretary General calling for an "immediate, verifiable ceasefire". The UN's special envoy in Libya, Abdel Elah al-Khatib, had discussed specific conditions needed for this with Dr Mahmoudi and a select few regime officials.

The official government estimate of the cost of Libyan military operations for the UK alone is £100m so far, although independent defence analysts claim it adds up to three times that figure. However there is no doubt that this is likely to escalate significantly with the ratcheting up of operations which this week saw the heaviest bombing of Tripoli so far.

Britain and France are sending attack helicopters to take part in Libyan operations, and the RAF is said to be considering sending more Tornado GR4 jets. The firepower from the aircraft is considered to be necessary as the range of targets within Libya is widened.

Advocates of military action hold that it is the intensification of attacks which is driving the regime to seek a deal. According to defence officials, more than 1,200 targets have been "degraded" since the start of operations.

Extract from the letter

"We propose that parliament will convene at an extraordinary session to appoint an executive committee which will manage the public affairs and foresee the ceasefire and propose a mechanism for a political dialogue... comprising representatives from all regions and civil society. A committee will be... mandated with drafting a constitution to the Libyan people for adoption which will define the political system in Libya. A process of reconciliation will be initiated which will include amnesty and compensation to all victims of the conflict. We are ready to talk to help mediate a ceasefire and to initiate discussions on the future form of constitutional government... Let us create a road-map to the future. What has occurred in Libya is part of a wider series of events throughout the Arab world. We understand this. We are ready and we know what is required of us."

I can't imagine any deal that won't result in Gaddafi and his family on trial, and won't result the victims of various atrocities performed by Gaddafi soldiers getting justice. This is the deal they should have been try to make 3 months ago.

The Independent ruins there reporting a bit by having a idiotic opinion piece about it:

quote:

Kim Sengupta: A dubious offer, but a difficult one to refuse
General Abdel-Fattah Younis was in full flow at the Ouzo Hotel in Benghazi on the theme of Nato not doing enough. He had just said: "As they do nothing our people are getting murdered in Misrata..." when a man burst into the hall shouting "You murdered my son in 2006, you bastard..." before being dragged away.

The past cannot be kept buried in Libya. General Younis is a former interior minister in Gaddafi's regime, who declared himself the head of the opposition forces after defecting. But the oppression carried out by his men has left a bitter legacy and many cannot forget.

He is not the only former member of the regime in the administration of "Free Libya". Khalifa Heftar, who for a while feuded with General Younis over who was rebel commander, was a general in Gaddafi's military.

Mustafa Abdul Jalil, the leader of the Transitional National Council, is a former regime justice minister. The foreign minister of the Council, Mahmoud Jibril, used to head Gaddafi's National Economic Development Board. Both were seen as allies by Saif al-Islam, Gaddafi's son.

The main stumbling block to a ceasefire is the insistence by the rebels that no talks can be held unless Gaddafi and his family go into exile. But the rebel forces have done little to hasten that process.

With the war in stalemate, the Western powers accept they will have to talk to current regime officials as long as they do not have "blood on their hands".

Some of the "cleaner" officials are said to be trying to move Gaddafi away from the levers of power to the role of a figurehead, before he is persuaded to retire abroad. Unless the Colonel flees or is killed, a time may come when the West and, therefore, the rebels have to accept this option.

"herp de derp stalemate". If the war was in a stalemate then I doubt Gaddafi would be looking for a peace settlement.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 08:29 on May 26, 2011

Mr. Sunshine
May 15, 2008

This is a scrunt that has been in space too long and become a Lunt (Long Scrunt)

Fun Shoe

Kenning posted:

A no fly zone wouldn't do much in Syria, the geography's too complicated. It's not Libya's single road on flat terrain on the coast.

Also, you'd never get the BRICs on board with a no fly zone in Syria. Assad isn't hitting the opposition with aircraft, which means that they can't pretend that NATO (because let's be honest, the only international organization capable and willing to intervene in this way is NATO and its hangarounds) won't hit ground targets. You'd need a "no tanks and machineguns" zone, and that won't happen.

It wouldn't have happened in Libya either, but since Gaddafi used aircraft the BRICs could lie to themselves and pretend that only Libyan aircraft would be targeted.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I always got the impression that with Libya a lot of Western countries threw their support behind the rebels to make up for their inaction with Egypt and Tunisia, thinking the rebels would win. When that didn't happen they had to throw their full support behind the rebels so they didn't end up with an angry dictator sat across the Med from Europe.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's a report from Misrata, which for some reason is always posted as a picture:
[edit]
I've typed it up:

quote:

Events of Tuesday May 24th
- Clashes near Dayniya and Tawergah are continuing.
- Several reports point to a transfer of Free Libyan Forces' troops from eastern Libya to Misrata by boats.
- NATO reportedly issued a warning to regime forces in Zliten and later bombarded a storage facility for ammunition, mines, and speedboats at the port of Zliten.
- According to its own report, NATO also bombed several regime targets around Misrata as well as in Al Khums.

The general situation is still unchanging since May 20th. However, the constant NATO bombardment of regime forces' armour, supplies and communication facilities as well as the influx of reinforcements from eastern Libya will inevitably continue to shift the situation in favour of the Free Libyan Forces, despite their now considerably extended front line. The rate of troop shipment of the FLF is difficult to assess. It is mainly executed by small fishing vessels, of which at least a couple each day arrive. It can be anywhere from a platoon sized unit per day (25 to 50 fighers), to a company sized unit per day (100 to 250 fighters). The onset of the battle from Zliten is just a matter of time (days rather than weeks).

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 09:15 on May 26, 2011

Cable Guy
Jul 18, 2005

I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...




Slippery Tilde

Kenning posted:

A no fly zone wouldn't do much in Syria, the geography's too complicated. It's not Libya's single road on flat terrain on the coast.
They've already been taught by the Brits about vehicle conversion.





and infiltration



Edit: removed edit, ta.

Cable Guy fucked around with this message at 16:12 on May 26, 2011

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Cable Guy posted:

Things look pretty bleak there.

(that attachment didn't work)

I've typed it up:

quote:

Events of Tuesday May 24th
- Clashes near Dayniya and Tawergah are continuing.
- Several reports point to a transfer of Free Libyan Forces' troops from eastern Libya to Misrata by boats.
- NATO reportedly issued a warning to regime forces in Zliten and later bombarded a storage facility for ammunition, mines, and speedboats at the port of Zliten.
- According to its own report, NATO also bombed several regime targets around Misrata as well as in Al Khums.

The general situation is still unchanging since May 20th. However, the constant NATO bombardment of regime forces' armour, supplies and communication facilities as well as the influx of reinforcements from eastern Libya will inevitably continue to shift the situation in favour of the Free Libyan Forces, despite their now considerably extended front line. The rate of troop shipment of the FLF is difficult to assess. It is mainly executed by small fishing vessels, of which at least a couple each day arrive. It can be anywhere from a platoon sized unit per day (25 to 50 fighers), to a company sized unit per day (100 to 250 fighters). The onset of the battle from Zliten is just a matter of time (days rather than weeks).

I'd agree with that assesement based of everything I've been reading as well. Also note those forces arriving from Benghazi are likely to have been trained by Western military advisers, and equipped with equipment and weapons provided by the rebels foreign allies, so would likely include body armour, MILAN missile systems, and plenty of ammo. I've already read a report about one fishing boat that was stacked full of various supplies, including ammo for recoiless rifles, and other kinds of ammo, and there's a constant supply of those going to Misrata.

Nic Robinson of CNN, based in Zintan in the Nafusa mountains posted a few Tweets an hour ago saying that NATO jets had been circling the Gaddafi positions that had been bombarding the city with rockets, and there had been a series of very loud explosions, at least 20, coming from that area, and they sounded a lot more powerful than grad rocket strikes, which suggests NATO has started destroying Gaddafi vehicles in the area.

automatic
Nov 3, 2010

by Y Kant Ozma Post
Goddamn Brown Moses, you are literally a better news source than any major paper or site I can think of. Keep up the good work, and thanks for keeping us up on a subject that for some reason is less important than Kim Kardashian getting married or Oprah's show ending.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Ben Wedemen of CNN is reporting multiple aircraft flying over Misrata, I assume to support the rebels in the West. I'm really getting a strong feeling that in the next 10 days you'll see alot of movement towards Zliten and Sirte from Misrata, and the rebels in the East attacking Brega and moving towards Sirte. It wouldn't suprise me if the rebels are sat outside Sirte soon. I'm still sure some commentators will declare the situation as a stalemate even then.
Live blogs 26th May
LibyaFeb17.com
Feb17.info
AJE
Guardian

I believe the UK Apache helicopters will be arriving and operational by the end of today, and their mission to protect everything with in 26km of Misrata, although I'm not sure if that means from the centre, or from the edges, and what those edges would be. 25km is the range of the majority of Gaddafi's artillery, so it would ensure Misrata continues to be unmolested by Gaddafi's forces. Also it's unclear if shells landing in that zone but launched outside that zone would result in the helicopters attack the source of the shelling, which would then mean they can operate in Zlitan.

In Yemen news:

quote:

The fighting in Yemen appears to have escalated overnight.

There are reports that the headquarters of an opposition TV station has been destroyed.

The Yemen Post reports:


quote:

The Saleh government succeeded in hitting the opposition TV channel (Suhail) with RPG's late last night ending its feeds. The channel is currently out of service in Sana'a.

This is a big blow to the tribes of Ahmar, as the channel was owned by Hameed al-Ahmar, the brother of Hashed's tribal leader.
It also reports that more than 50 people were killed in clashes overnight.

Reuters is reporting a similar death toll.

quote:

Dozens of Yemenis were killed in overnight fighting in the capital, a government official said on Thursday as fighting aimed at toppling President Ali Abdullah Saleh threatened to ignite civil war.

Witnesses said separately that the compound of a tribal leader who is a major force in the fighting was severely damaged in the latest round of clashes that started on Monday and have already left scores dead.

quote:

In an update on the latest fighting Tom writes:

quote:

I'm still hearing shelling now after more than 12 hours of continuous fighting in Sana'a.

The local hospitals are filled with the injured, a doctorr said that 26 tribesmen were killed last night, mostly from sniper fire.

The opposition television station Suhail TV is no longer broadcasting after its main office was shelled last night by government troops.

Lots of Yemenis are leaving the capital in cars and buses with luggage piled up on the roof. The airport is still open.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 09:57 on May 26, 2011

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Another Yemen round up:

quote:

Events are moving fast in the Yemeni capital Sana'a amid competing claims from the government and al-Ahmar clan about the fighting.

Here is a round up of the latest reports.

Yemen's Defense Ministry says 28 have been killed in an explosion at a weapons' storage facility in western Sana'a. Thursday's blast occurred in an area close to a neighbourhood where government troops have clashed with tribesmen for four straight days. The opposition, however, disputes the government's account and says the latest deaths were caused by heavy shelling of a residential area in the capital by troops loyal to Yemen's embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

• The Yemen Rights Monitor lists 38 key buildings in Sana'a now thought to be under control of the Al-Ahmar tribesmen.

• Clan leader Sadiq al-Ahmar told al-Jazeera that he is protected by Hashed tribesmen and has captured 70 government soldiers.

• There are reports of a run on the banks in Sana'a.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Libya updates:

quote:

African leaders have geared up to demand an outright end to NATO air strikes on Libya, accusing the West of sidelining African nations in efforts to end a conflict on their home turf.

“Some international players seem to be denying Africa any significant role in the seach for a solution to the Libyan conflict,” said African Union Commission chief Jean Ping at a summit in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.

“Africa is not going to be reduced to the status of an observer of its own calamities.”

He added that the AU would call for an end to NATO operations in Libya and demand that its roadmap be used as a basis for a resolution to the conflict.

quote:

G8 to discuss Libya solutions, aid for Tunisia, Egypt. Leaders of the Group of Eight began gathering in France on Thursday to endorse aid to new Arab democracies, but wrangling among Western and developing economies over who runs the IMF may take up much of their time.

Officials from the G8 — the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Russia — had held preparatory talks on Wednesday in the seaside resort of Deauville to hammer out common positions on issues ranging from the world economy to Libya’s civil war, Iran’s nuclear goals and unrest in Syria.

“We share a compelling interest in seeing the transitions in Egypt and Tunisia succeed and become models for the region,” U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote in a letter to the G8 on Wednesday.

“Otherwise, we risk losing this moment of opportunity.”

quote:

NATO forces struck at targets in the Libyan capital Tripoli on Wednesday night, Libyan television and a Dubai-based television station said.

Libyan state television Al-Jamahiriya said a vocational school was among targets hit. It said the attacks caused “human and material losses” but gave no specific details.

A Reuters staff member in Tripoli reported hearing three small explosions in the last 90 minutes.

Dubai-based Al Arabiya quoted its correspondent in Tripoli as confirming military strikes had taken place but gave no details.

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
Ah yes, an AU meeting in Ethiopia, the bastion of democracy.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

More from Yemen, the Guardian is doing a good job covering events there:

quote:

"I can hear machine-gun fire and mortar fire and its been going on for about 12 hours," Tom Finn reports from the Yemeni capital Sana'a.

In an Audioboo update he reports:

quote:

Last night the sky was lighting up with huge explosions. It was really quite terrifying. I've seen lots of Yemenis in the old city packing up their stuff and leaving for their villages. There seems to be a mass exodus. With the gunfire ringing out people have decided it has reach the stage when its no longer safe to stay here. I was at the central bank earlier and there was queues of people lining up to take money out.

The clashes seem to be intensifying; both sides firing mortars at each other. The other concern is that both sides are starting to spread out and occupy more space in the capital. They [the al-Ahmar tribesmen] are thought to be occupying five ministerial buildings and a number of blocks. There are rumours that last night a camp belonging to the defected general Ali Mohsin was shelled by government forces. If that's the case it is incredibly worrying because that would mean the military may end up getting dragged into this and we would have factions within the military fighting each other.

Tom visited the house of Sadiq al-Ahmar yesterday, he says.

quote:

I saw police cars and armoured cars which looked like they belonged to the military. There were guys in military uniforms in that house. But there are often very blurry lines in Yemen between who is in the military and who's not.

On predictions that Saudi Arabia is poised to intervene, Tom said: "I heard the same thing from an opposition MP yesterday, he told me adamantly that Saudi would not be willing to put up with this for more than four or five days. Other says the Saudis are far more likely just to start barricading their borders with Yemen."

AllanGordon
Jan 26, 2010

by Shine

Svartvit posted:

What about Saudi Arabia? What about Bahrain? There's a lot Obama could do if he wanted to.

Didn't hear anything about protests ending in major bloodshed in Saudi Arabia and haven't heard anything recently about protests in Bahrain, so no not really possible for Obama to do anything with that. Also them being major allies and oil suppliers to America really limits Obama's options.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

This is a flyer being dropped in Tripoli, military bases and military installations asking soldiers to defect:

Translation:

quote:

Top flyer: Gaddafi's orders to attack civilians are illegal. Due to this, he is now accused by the ICC of committing crimes against humanity

Bottom flyer: Professional soldiers do not attack civilians. Carrying out orders to do so are against international laws. Do not bring shame to yourself and your families

quote:

The vice chairman of Libya’s rebel administration says it could take up to two years to organize elections, backtracking on promises of a six-month transition to democracy.

Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga’s announcement is adding to internal dissent within the opposition movement seeking to topple Gaddafi.

Ghoga, of the National Transitional Council, said at a news conference Wednesday that a one- to two-year transition period would be needed after the hoped-for ouster of Gaddafi.

In that time, he said, the opposition would form a transitional legislative body tasked with writing a constitution, hold a referendum on the charter, form political parties and then hold elections. Some opposition supporters suspect council members are intent on prolonging their power.
Hopefully with EU assistance they can get it done quickly, the longer it takes, the more chance there will be problems.

AllanGordon
Jan 26, 2010

by Shine

Brown Moses posted:

Hopefully with EU assistance they can get it done quickly, the longer it takes, the more chance there will be problems.

I don't know how long it takes to create the infrastructure to have a country wide vote, but a 1-2 year period seems a bit long. Anyone know of any good examples to compare that to?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

There's not many examples I can think of, especially as Libya has a small population, and it'll probably be a pet project for the EU, US and UN.

Few more updates:
Libya

quote:

ChangeInLibya tweets: “Very loud explosions reported East of Zintan in the city of Awiniyah; NATO jets striking Gaddafi forces there.”

quote:

Major General John Lorimer tweets: “A major target for the Royal Air Force contingent yesterday was the large military vehicle depot at Tiji in the west of Libya. The military vehicle depot has been supporting regime attacks on the civilian population in the Djebel Nafousa region, south west of Tripoli. RAF aircraft, accompanied by other NATO aircraft, used Paveway guided bombs to attack targets within the depot, causing extensive damage.”

quote:

Niger confirmed a deal with Libya’s LAP Green Network for a 10-year majority share in state telecommunications firm Sonitel and its mobile arm, Sahel Com, according to a government statement.

Under the deal, Green Network — part of the Libyan African Investment Portfolio (LAP) — will pay 31 billion CFA francs ($65.9 million) for a 51 percent share in a 10 year licence for the communications firms, which will be fused into one.

The investment comes despite Green Network being hit by United Nations sanctions targeting Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, with Zambia in March saying it was freezing Green’s assets there.

quote:

Goldman Sachs and HSBC together held $335 million of the Libyan oil fund’s assets, while Societe Generale held $1 billion in structured products for the fund, Global Witness said on Thursday. Global Witness said HSBC held $293 million across 10 accounts, while Goldman had $43 million in three accounts, denominated in dollars, pounds, Swiss francs, euros and Canadian dollars. Goldman Sachs and HSBC both declined comment. A much larger portion of the LIA’s deposits, $19 billion, was held in Libyan and Middle Eastern banks, including Libya’s central bank, the Arab Banking Corporation and the British Arab Commercial Bank.

quote:

My colleague Paul Owen has just been in touch with the UK Foreign Office (see 11.52am) regarding the Independent's Libya ceasefire story, which the Spanish government has partially confirmed.

A Foreign Office spokesman said the government was "not aware of a letter or Libya reaching out on this". He said: "Our position is clear: Gaddafi has got to go. Gaddafi has called countless ceasefires, all of which have been total shams."

Saudi Arabia

quote:

A Saudi Arabian woman who posted a video online of her driving her car is facing another 10 days in prison, write Robert Booth and Mona Mahmoud.

quote:

Manal Al Sharif, a 32-year old mother who drove around the eastern city of Khobar last Saturday, had been expecting to be released today after five days in jail on charges her lawyer described as driving without a licence, provoking other women to do the same and provoking public opinion in Saudi Arabia.

It is disputed by lawyers whether it is illegal for women to drive under national law but it is socially and religiously unacceptable in many quarters.

"The investigator needs another 10 days to complete his investigation," said Al Sharif's lawyer, Adnan Al Salah. "He will decide whether Manal is innocent and has to be released or he will refer her to the prosecution unit, a government organisation and they might refer her to a special prosecutor to deal with the case. I feel the fair and right thing would have been to release her on bail."

Egypt

quote:

Israel has reacted with alarm to Egypt's decision to open the Rafah crossing into Gaza,

The Jerusalem Post quoted deputy prime minister Silvan Shalom as saying: "This is a dangerous development that could lead to weapons and al-Qaida smuggling into Gaza."

Hamas hailed the move as "a courageous and responsible decision which falls in line with Palestinian and Egyptian public opinion."

European observers have not been invited back to monitor the crossing, Haaretz reports.

Yemen

quote:

The crisis in Yemen is forcing its way to the top of the agenda of the G8 meeting in the French coastal town of Deauville.

The French foreign ministry spokesman told reporters that France blamed Saleh for refusing to stand down

quote:

We deplore the fighting that occurred overnight which was a direct result of the current political impasse, for which President Saleh has direct responsibility due to his refusal to sign the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] transition agreement.

Japanese foreign ministry spokesman Satoru Satoh said:


quote:

Japan strongly hopes that President Saleh will follow through on his commitments to peacefully transfer power, and that the parties concerned will reach a consensus, leading to the early stabilization of the situation.

Speaking in Paris ahead of the talks US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said:

quote:

We call on all sides, on all sides, to immediately cease the violence. We continue to support a united and stable Yemen and we continue to support the departure of President Saleh who has consistently agreed that he would be stepping down from power and then consistently reneged on those agreements.

Syria

quote:

The Syrian opposition has called on the nation's army to join the uprising against President Bashar Assad's regime.

AP reports:

quote:

The opposition said Thursday on Facebook that protests planned for Friday will honor the "Guardians of the Nation," a reference to the army.

The call appears to be an effort to break a stalemate after nearly 10 weeks of protests.

During the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, the armed forces broke with the regimes and sided with the protesters.

Human rights groups say the government's crackdown on dissent has killed more than 1,000 people, including dozens of soldiers over the past two months.

The human rights group Avaaz says one of thousands of protesters detained by the regime has died in custody after being tortured.

quote:

The detained protester Mahmoud Mohammad Abedrabboh has died in custody, having been tortured, Avaaz activists have reported. His body was released to his family last night in Hammouriyeh, Damascus.

He was arrested by security forces on April 29 in Parliament Square, Jobar, while taking part in a demonstration. He was then transferred to Sednaya prison where he was severely tortured. His mother visited him in prison 10 days ago and was able to confirm this having witnessed clear bodily evidence of torture.

The people of Hammouriyeh and Arbeen are holding the regime responsible for the safety of his cousin Mahmoud Ahmad Abedrabboh, who was detained two months ago and has since disappeared. The authorities deny holding him.

Another activist, Najati Tayara, is facing the death penalty it said:

quote:

Tayara has been charged with calling on Syrians to demonstrate, false intimidations and talking to "enemy media" that are involved in a "conspiracy" against Syria. According to Avaaz activists, Tayara is currently being held in an "inhumane" underground prison in Homs, along with hundred others who have joined recent anti-government demonstrations.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

AllanGordon posted:

I don't know how long it takes to create the infrastructure to have a country wide vote, but a 1-2 year period seems a bit long. Anyone know of any good examples to compare that to?

Romania did it in 6 months and Egypt are aiming for around the same.

Jut fucked around with this message at 15:37 on May 26, 2011

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Brown Moses posted:

I always got the impression that with Libya a lot of Western countries threw their support behind the rebels to make up for their inaction with Egypt and Tunisia, thinking the rebels would win. When that didn't happen they had to throw their full support behind the rebels so they didn't end up with an angry dictator sat across the Med from Europe.
Pretty sure you're spot on. Remember that when things began in Egypt the White House and the State Department were both urging caution and taking the conservative approach.

Although that doesn't shock me, given how Mubarak was a key US ally in the region despite his myriad human rights abuses. Remember that a lot of terror suspects snatched from Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Europe, etc. were rendered down to Egypt for actual interrogation, since they could torture the hell out of those suspects without the US's hands getting dirty.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Latest article from the Guardian:

quote:

Gaddafi is paranoid and on the run, MI6 tells David Cameron
David Cameron has been told by UK intelligence that Muammar Gaddafi is increasingly paranoid, on the run, and hiding in hospitals by night with senior commanders in the regime unable to communicate with one another.

The reports from MI6 relayed to the cabinet's national security council this week prompted Cameron to authorise a high-risk escalation of attacks by agreeing in principle to deploy four Apache helicopters into Libya with orders to gun down Libyan regime leaders and assets hiding in built-up areas.

The French had leaked that Britain was likely to deploy helicopters, but the Whitehall ministerial decision was only made today.

The decision was confirmed by British officials attending the G8 summit of world leaders. Diplomatic sources, sounding more confident than at any point since the air assaults, claimed: "He is on the run."

Gaddafi's regime made its most plaintive plea yet for a ceasefire offering to talk to anti-government rebels, move towards a constitutional government, and compensate victims of the three-month conflict.

The Apaches' deployment from HMS Ocean touring off the Albanian coast will not be confirmed until they have flown over Libya. They will be joined by French helicopters under Nato command.

The Apaches, capable of flying as low as 1,000 feet and using heat-seeking missiles to destroy a vast array of targets, will require close on-the-ground co-ordination probably using UK special forces and rebel leaders. Their use has in part been necessitated by Gaddafi trying to hide his military assets in built-up areas that can only be attacked by Tornados at the risk of massive civilian casualties.

British diplomatic sources explained: "There's clearly a link between the upping of the military pressure and what we assess is his state of mind. The more he thinks things are moving against him the better. There is a picture building up of this man who is very paranoid and a regime that's increasingly feeling under pressure and is beginning to fracture.

"The judgment we are making is that that means it is the right time to turn up the heat and try to make it tell.

"What he is doing is moving from a place we won't bomb to another place we won't bomb. The fact that he is moving the whole time shows he is worried about people knowing where he is staying.

"One striking thing is the fact that Gaddafi appears to be moving from hospital to hospital and spending each night in a different hospital. We are getting the sense that a lot of senior commanders have stopped using their phones. They are clearly worried they are being listened to and that is having an impact on their ability to communicate."

Some of the growing UK pressure may be designed to see if it can extract a more serious offer of a ceasefire from the regime. So far Sarkozy, Cameron and President Obama have not viewed the repeated offers of an immediate ceasefire as serious.

The implicit threat in the use of the helicopters is that it will be easy to assassinate Gaddafi. But the French foreign minister, Alain Juppe, insisted that was not the plan. "We don't want to kill him," he said. "Because we are not killers."

Sarkozy admitted at the G8 summit that conflicts over the Nato attack on Libya were having a diplomatic spill-over. Russia's ambassador to France, Alexander Orlov, said the Nato campaign has gone "too far." As a result, he said, Russia did not intend to support a UN resolution warning Syria about its crackdown on anti-government protesters.

The offer from the Libyan regime represents an advance on previous ceasefire bids, which had focused largely on implementing a proposal by the African Union that calls for international monitors to observe a negotiated ceasefire.

Libya's prime minister Al-Baghdadi Ali al-Mahmoudi acknowledged that the revolt that has paralysed Libya was "part of a series of events that are taking place throughout the Arab world".

Libyan officials had previously linked the rebel groups who now control the east of the country to al-Qaida and foreign backers, and had refused to acknowledge a pro-democracy current among the rebels.

Asked about the new willingness to talk to rebels, Mahmoudi said: "We are ready for dialogue with all structures that represent the whole of Libya. Any Libyans can sit on the round table."

The plan was greeted with scepticism by the US and some European states.
Of course, it just could be propaganda being fed to the Guardian, but it's something that's been claimed before by people on Twitter, so maybe it's true.

Pedrophile
Feb 25, 2011

by angerbot
Yeah given the abilities of helicopters there's really not many places to hide anymore, hunting tanks is basically what they've been designed for.

Mr. Sunshine
May 15, 2008

This is a scrunt that has been in space too long and become a Lunt (Long Scrunt)

Fun Shoe

quote:

Russia's ambassador to France, Alexander Orlov, said the Nato campaign has gone "too far." As a result, he said, Russia did not intend to support a UN resolution warning Syria about its crackdown on anti-government protesters.

I love this. It's so childish. "Since we do not approve of the way you are treating a murderous dictator, we will not tell another murderous dictator to stop killing civilians. So there!"

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Pedrophile posted:

Yeah given the abilities of helicopters there's really not many places to hide anymore, hunting tanks is basically what they've been designed for.

The Israelis for years have been using Apaches to assassinate Hamas officials, so there's precedent in using attack helicopters being used to hunt down and isolate Qaddafi and his senior commanders.

The thing that gets me about this is that the regime's AAA must be non-existent now if the French and the British are willing to send in helicopters to flush Qaddafi out.

Also, we should let Indian Army intervene into Syria, just to throw off the Russians.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Cameron has just given the offical word to use Apache helicopters, and there's heavy airstrikes on Gaddafi's compound at the moment, journalists in the Rixos hotel have reported 5-6 heavy explosions coming from that area in the last 20 minutes.
In other news:

quote:

The Libyan ambassador to the European Union defected on Thursday, the EU said. The defection of Al Hadi Hadeiba, who was Muammar Gaddafi’s ambassador to the EU and the Benelux countries, followed a period of discussion with EU officials, an EU diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The move was welcomed by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

Chortles
Dec 29, 2008
Who knows if NATO may have missed a MANPADS or two, but I would imagine that the Brits' Apaches (dunno if they're the Longbow variant) would be able to outrange any anti-aircraft guns that regime forces might plausibly have left, so otherwise... yeah. I expect fighter escorts nevertheless for the helos though.

the floor is baklava
May 4, 2003

SHAME
I'm guessing they'll try and just use them at night, otherwise I think it's a bit cocky to say the least. Technicals with AA guns seem to be so common in Libya you'd have a ridiculously hard time not winding up in one's (or more than one) sights every time you flew a mission. Used properly the really big ones can be incredibly effective. US forces took a quite a bit of damage and losses from those sorts of weapons in Iraq.

Casimir Radon
Aug 2, 2008


quote:

Russia's ambassador to France, Alexander Orlov, said the Nato campaign has gone "too far." As a result, he said, Russia did not intend to support a UN resolution warning Syria about its crackdown on anti-government protesters.
:allears: Russia.....

Casimir Radon fucked around with this message at 01:14 on May 27, 2011

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
[timg] that please.

Mr. Sunshine posted:

I love this. It's so childish. "Since we do not approve of the way you are treating a murderous dictator, we will not tell another murderous dictator to stop killing civilians. So there!"

Especially because the UNSC issues those boilerplate messages about everything.

cgeq
Jun 5, 2004

Mr. Sunshine posted:

I love this. It's so childish. "Since we do not approve of the way you are treating a murderous dictator, we will not tell another murderous dictator to stop killing civilians. So there!"

It makes Russia look really powerless if their only bargaining power amounts to "we'll stand aside and let you bomb a country if you're serious about it but we won't stand with you on the silly stuff."

Chortles
Dec 29, 2008

fap fap SPLOOGE posted:

I'm guessing they'll try and just use them at night, otherwise I think it's a bit cocky to say the least.
I don't dispute that this is likely -- effective AAA or not, regime forces probably don't have many nightvision optics left to hand out, so that'd just make the "power disparity" even wider.

quote:

Used properly the really big ones can be incredibly effective. US forces took a quite a bit of damage and losses from those sorts of weapons in Iraq.
Fortunately, supposedly only the now-depleted loyalist units were trained to actually use these effectively...

ArchRanger
Mar 19, 2007
I'm tired of following my dreams, I'm just gonna ask where they're goin' and meet up with 'em there.

Casimir Radon posted:

:allears: Russia.....



What am I looking at here?

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Toast Museum
Dec 3, 2005

30% Iron Chef

ArchRanger posted:

What am I looking at here?

A before/after of part of Chechnya, apparently.

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