Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Ireland Sucks: May 16, 2004

ThePutty posted:

I can't see the rebels taking Tripoli, unless they have some serious heavy NATO support in the attack. Even then, I can't see a full scale rebel attack on a heavily guarded city having success unless the population inside Tripoli revolts or the Gadaffi army surrenders. They'll probably go around Tripoli and secure the rest of Libya, then surround Tripoli after the fronts are all connected up and then I have no idea what will happen.

I like to think of it as Misratah/Zlite but 10x as bad. It will probably just have to be a siege: no incoming fuel, ammo, reinforcements, anything but aid for the population who may or may not side with the rebels. Of course if they get to the gates of Tripoli then suddenly everyone will go 'oh gently caress' and desert Ghadaffi like rats off a sinking ship and he will be found dead in a spiderhole somewhere.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 15:41

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# ? Apr 24, 2024 09:21

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

DropsySufferer posted:

Finally, this is getting close, it's been a deadlock for months. Absolutely fantastic job on this thread, Brown Moses.

What I'm wondering is what happens after the rebels (hopefully) take Zawiyah. It puts them within only 30 miles from Tripoli.

What happens when the rebels finally get to Tripoli? Will there be massive resistance from Gaddafi loyalists? Is there is going to be a mass rebellion as the locals promised? A mass rebellion from the general population would let the rebels take the city quickly. I'm hoping it goes that way.

Let's hope this ends soon.

If you take a look at the below map you can see that if Zawiyah is secured then it cuts off a bit chunk of Libya from Tripoli, cutting off any Gaddafi troops in that area from supply. Rumour is it Surman, west of Zawiyah, has been entered by the rebels, and they've just freed thousands of imprisoned protesters, some of which will no doubt want to join up with the rebels. It also cuts off Tripoli from Tunisia, where there's been a large number of trucks transporting supplies, including fuel, so it's a disaster for Gaddafi.

Now the rebels can secure everything north of Nafusa and West of Zawiyah, then go around Tripoli and try to link up with Tarhuna, push for Al Khums, and surround both Zliten and Tripoli. It makes the whole Brega front look completely worthless.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 15:48

Thundarr: Dec 24, 2002

Slave posted:

I like to think of it as Misratah/Zlite but 10x as bad. It will probably just have to be a siege: no incoming fuel, ammo, reinforcements, anything but aid for the population who may or may not side with the rebels. Of course if they get to the gates of Tripoli then suddenly everyone will go 'oh gently caress' and desert Ghadaffi like rats off a sinking ship and he will be found dead in a spiderhole somewhere.

One can always hope that this will lead to mass defections of Gadhaffi's soldiers, or finally prompt Gadhaffi himself to come to the table and finally offer a legitimate cease-fire with a power sharing pact (or go away and never come back). However, as the rebels continue to approach Tripoli everyone has to be prepared to accept that there's a good chance it'll be a total bloodbath for both sides.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 15:52

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Slave posted:

I like to think of it as Misratah/Zlite but 10x as bad. It will probably just have to be a siege: no incoming fuel, ammo, reinforcements, anything but aid for the population who may or may not side with the rebels. Of course if they get to the gates of Tripoli then suddenly everyone will go 'oh gently caress' and desert Ghadaffi like rats off a sinking ship and he will be found dead in a spiderhole somewhere.

I see Tripoli as too big a city for the loyalist troops to hold. Sure, the army can try to press the civilian population into citizen's militias, but those will crumble, surrender or switch sides as soon as they come under attack. The units that are prepared to fight will have to concentrate on defending some key approaches or dominating features, government buildings etc. but the area is just too large to create a continuous defense line. This will allow rebels to slip through, and if the locals support them, they will show the way past the army checkpoints. When army checkpoints notice that they are surrounded, it will quickly turn into a rout.

There will be casualties, I think, but it's not going to be a Stalingrad like pitched fight. More like the liberation of Paris, where the outnumbered Germans were pinned into isolated areas and the partisans and allied troops cleared them one by one until they were ordered to surrender.

Of course this depends on a bunch of unknown variables, like just how many fighters there really are at that point on either side, what will the Tripolitans do, what will Gaddafi do etc.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 15:57

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's the NATO report, if it reflects attacks yesterday it doesn't look like NATO helped out too much:

quote:

Sorties conducted 13 AUGUST: 110
Strike sorties conducted 13 AUGUST: 47
Key Hits 13 AUGUST:
In the vicinity of Brega: 7 Military Vehicles, 1 Multiple Rocket Launcher
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 1 Military Vehicle.
In the vicinity of Waddan: 1 Ammunition Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Zlitan:2 Military Vehicles
In the vicinity of Bir Al Ghanam: 1 Military Vehicle
In the vicinity of Misratah: 4 Anti-Aircraft Guns.
In the vicinity of Zawiyah: 2Tanks.
In the vicinity of Tawurgah: 2Military Vehicles, 1 Anti-Aircraft Guns.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 16:37

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Brown Moses posted:

Here's the NATO report, if it reflects attacks yesterday it doesn't look like NATO helped out too much:

It's probably best they step back for now, things are moving so fast and the rebels now have a lot of heavy equipment that can easily be mistaken for regime assets.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 16:41

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

fap fap SPLOOGE posted:

It's probably best they step back for now, things are moving so fast and the rebels now have a lot of heavy equipment that can easily be mistaken for regime assets.

There's already been one FF tank destroyed by NATO in the last day, so there's already been some confusion. It seems the rebels in Tawergha were told to paint there vehicles red and yellow so NATO aircraft could ID them, not sure it they did the same thing in the Zawiyah push.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 16:45

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Brown Moses posted:

This is a disaster for Gaddafi, he lost a major city, his last refinery, and his last route to the outside world, and all in less than 24 hours. So much for days of bloody street fighting, they just ran away. Thats not to say the rebels have 100% control, there's still fighting in the city, but I don't think the rebels are going to give up easily now they are in there.

Isn't this about the point in the dictatorship where you announce your sudden retirement to Saudi Arabia? Gaddafi has to see the writing on the wall, and even if he doesn't his inner-circle must.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 17:02

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Zeroisanumber posted:

Isn't this about the point in the dictatorship where you announce your sudden retirement to Saudi Arabia? Gaddafi has to see the writing on the wall, and even if he doesn't his inner-circle must.

If the rebels get full control of Zawiyah and Gharyan and can hold both he better be on the next refugee boat out of Tripoli.
This is apparently the road bridge the journalists in Zawiyah are hanging around, and currently what is the main base of operations for the rebels in Zawiyah from what I can gather.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 17:09

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

This short AJE video shows how supply lines have been cut by the rebels:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFwcakPnZXI
This video shows a Gaddafi flag being taken down in Zawiyah:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp7hb5Ndu5k

# ? Aug 14, 2011 17:43

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's a report from Benghazi about disagreements among the NTC:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZQNXOes52o
With the Nafusa rebels success, I'm wondering why they should even listen to the NTC, there the ones who are making the most progress at the moment.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 18:08

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's some unconfirmed news via Reuters:

quote:

Rebels say capture another town west of Tripoli
Libyan rebel fighters on Sunday captured the coastal town of Surman, about 70 km (45 miles) west of the capital, a rebel spokesman told Reuters.

"The revolutionaries today entered the centre of Surman. They are now in full control of the town. There is no fighting there now," the spokesman, called Abdulrahman, said by telephone from the town of Zintan. His account could not immediately be verified.

The spokesman, who said he had been in Surman earlier on Sunday, told Reuters 10 rebels were killed in the fighting and 34 wounded. Earlier, rebels entered the town of Zawiyah, a short distance east from Surman.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 18:21

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Zeroisanumber posted:

Isn't this about the point in the dictatorship where you announce your sudden retirement to Saudi Arabia? Gaddafi has to see the writing on the wall, and even if he doesn't his inner-circle must.

I don't know if we can count on Ghaddafi being mentally competent to actually see the writing on the wall, ever. He's never struck me as being particularly connected to reality, and at some point maybe being the focus of a personality cult for decades gets you to believing all your own lies.

I don't put much percentage into Ghaddafi fleeing. I think he's going to stick it out to the bitter end; the endgame is someone close to him puts a gun to his head.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 20:27

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Latest from AJE:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdMlYeXYim4

# ? Aug 14, 2011 20:35

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Lots of "confirmed" talk on twitter right now that Gaddafi is trying to cut a deal to flee the country right now.

I don't believe it, but I'd like to imagine lots of yelling going on in his command bunker right now.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 23:13

Lascivious Sloth: Apr 26, 2008; by sebmojo

Rebel Battlegrounds

quote:

Colonel Jomaa Ibrahim, a spokesman for the rebel military council in the western mountains, has told Al Jazeera that "opposition fighters are in control of Az Zawiyah, surman, Agilette and Gharyan. There are clashes in Az-Zawiyah and Gharyan as opposition forces are pushing pro-Gaddafi forces out".

Tripoli "residents"

quote:

Reuters reports that residents of Tripoli say that they do not believe reports of the rebel advance towards the capital.

"Of course we will not let them enter Tripoli," said Mohamed Hasan, a 27-year-old who wore a single bullet around his neck.

Tripoli resident Abdul Rahim Mohammed Tarhouni, 20, said there had been rumours that rebels would rape women if they were to reached the capital.

"Of course we are scared. Of course we are thinking of leaving," he said. But he, like others, said he was ready to
fight. "Of course I will defend my country and my people."

Reporters were taken on a tour of Tripoli while accompanied by government minders.

Refugees Arriving In Italy

quote:

About 2,000 migrants from north Africa have arrived on the southern Italian island of Lampedusa this weekend, the ANSA news agency reports.

About 100 women and 40 children (including three babies) were among those who arrived between Saturday morning and Sunday morning on 12 boats.

Coast guards said they saw two more boats on Sunday, carrying hundreds of migrants.

In Sardinia, two boats carrying 45 men, one woman and two children landed overnight on Saturday.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 23:28

Mad Doctor Cthulhu: Mar 3, 2008

Xandu posted:

Lots of "confirmed" talk on twitter right now that Gaddafi is trying to cut a deal to flee the country right now.

I don't believe it, but I'd like to imagine lots of yelling going on in his command bunker right now.

At this point he better just start making friends because he is certainly going to need them.

I'll be surprised if he comes out of this alive. He pissed off a lot of people.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 23:30

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Xandu posted:

Lots of "confirmed" talk on twitter right now that Gaddafi is trying to cut a deal to flee the country right now.

I don't believe it, but I'd like to imagine lots of yelling going on in his command bunker right now.

He's going into "Downfall" mode?

# ? Aug 14, 2011 23:32

Ballz: Dec 16, 2003; it's mario time

Young Freud posted:

He's going into "Downfall" mode?

I eagerly await the inevitable YouTube subtitle parody.

# ? Aug 14, 2011 23:37

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Reuters is reporting that Gaddafi and the rebels are holding talks in Tunisia.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/14/us-libya-djerba-talks-idUSTRE77D2YU20110814 posted:

Libyan rebels and representatives of Muammar Gaddafi's government held negotiations late Sunday in a hotel in southern Tunisia, a source with direct knowledge of the talks told Reuters.

There was no immediate confirmation that any talks were taking place from the government in Tripoli or the rebel movement.

The talks were being conducted behind closed doors at a hotel on the Tunisian island of Djerba near the border with Libya, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He did not identify any of those involved in the negotiations.

"Representatives of the rebels and Gaddafi representatives are having a meeting now," said the source.

(Reporting by Tarek Amara; Writing by Christian Lowe; Editing by Tim Pearce)

edit: We don't know what they're meeting about or how long they've been meeting for, or even which group of rebels is participating (presumably the TNC, but who knows). It makes it hard to draw any conclusions from the report, unfortunately.

Xandu fucked around with this message at 00:30 on Aug 15, 2011

# ? Aug 15, 2011 00:21

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

If I was forced to choose between dying in a bunker surrounded by enemies or fleeing into exile with some hopes for me or mu sons to come back on day in Libya, i would choose exile. But who the gently caress know what Gaddafi is thinking...

And honestly i don't know the Gaddafi family well enough to know if they would keep an united facade in exile. It would be funny to see them flee, with plans to destabilize Libya from far away, only to end up in an internal power struggle over money and political leadership.

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 01:51 on Aug 15, 2011

# ? Aug 15, 2011 01:49

Lascivious Sloth: Apr 26, 2008; by sebmojo

Remember those long rambling speeches Gaddafi made during the early days of the revolution and resolution 1973? He's batshit insane which means he is unpredictable and not capable of rational thought.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 01:57

Mad Doctor Cthulhu: Mar 3, 2008

Lascivious Sloth posted:

Remember those long rambling speeches Gaddafi made during the early days of the revolution and resolution 1973? He's batshit insane which means he is unpredictable and not capable of rational thought.

If he's really in Tunisia, he's staying there. And given his 'promises,' most likely in a coffin.

His word really means nothing at this point.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 02:12

Mozi: Apr 4, 2004; Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die; Nap Ghost

They're not talking directly to Gaddafi.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 02:45

Warcabbit: Apr 26, 2008; Wedge Regret

So it's completely useless, then. Excepting if they can persuade people to leave Gaddafi and join with them.

Cause the only person who has the power is Gadaffi. He was very careful to arrange it so all things come from him.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 04:02

BlackJosh: Sep 25, 2007

Warcabbit posted:

So it's completely useless, then. Excepting if they can persuade people to leave Gaddafi and join with them.

Cause the only person who has the power is Gadaffi. He was very careful to arrange it so all things come from him.

He only has as much control as everyone around him lets him. If his cabinet/advisors and all the higher ups jump ship or make a deal, what can he, at the end of the day just one man, do?

# ? Aug 15, 2011 04:35

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

BlackJosh posted:

He only has as much control as everyone around him lets him. If his cabinet/advisors and all the higher ups jump ship or make a deal, what can he, at the end of the day just one man, do?

Well, some advisers have families still in Tripoli i would guess. Gaddafi and Idi Amin Dada were good friend, weren't they?

# ? Aug 15, 2011 04:55

Namarrgon: Dec 23, 2008; Congratulations on not getting fit in 2011!

Mozi posted:

They're not talking directly to Gaddafi.

Exactly. If it is true I suspect it are simply the representatives of the high command minus Gaddafi figuring their poo poo out and checking if they can still get off scot-free if they would hand over the colonel.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 08:32

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Mubarak and pals are back in court today, you can follow it on these live blogs:
Guardian
AJE

# ? Aug 15, 2011 08:38

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Libya Live Blogs 15 August 2011
AJE
Guardian
Feb17.info

Situation map as of August 14th

'Tripoli Brigade' trains to take capital
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97r1T2MYL7A

quote:

Libya rebels and govt hold talks in Tunisia:source
Libyan rebels and representatives of Muammar Gaddafi's government held negotiations late on Sunday in a hotel in southern Tunisia, a source with direct knowledge of the talks told Reuters.

There was no immediate confirmation that any talks were taking place from the government in Tripoli or the rebel movement.

The talks were being conducted behind closed doors at a hotel on the Tunisian island of Djerba near the border with Libya, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He did not identify any of those involved in the negotiations.

"Representatives of the rebels and Gaddafi representatives are having a meeting now," said the source.

quote:

Rebels say capture another town west of Tripoli
Libyan rebel fighters on Sunday captured the coastal town of Surman, about 70 km (45 miles) west of the capital, a rebel spokesman told Reuters.

"The revolutionaries today entered the centre of Surman. They are now in full control of the town. There is no fighting there now," the spokesman, called Abdulrahman, said by telephone from the town of Zintan. His account could not immediately be verified.

The spokesman, who said he had been in Surman earlier on Sunday, told Reuters 10 rebels were killed in the fighting and 34 wounded. Earlier, rebels entered the town of Zawiyah, a short distance east from Surman.

quote:

Libyan rebels hope to cut 2 Tripoli supply routes
Libyan rebels said Sunday they were trying to cut off two key supply routes to Moammar Khadafy's stronghold in Tripoli after capturing more towns in the west of the country. The opposition fighters also battled government forces for control of the strategic city of Zawiya, just 30 miles from the capital.

The rebel advances over the past few days out of the western mountains near Tunisia into Zawiya on the Mediterranean coast and other nearby towns marked the most significant gains after months of stalemate in the civil war. Rebel leaders said they hope to take Tripoli before the end of this month, an ambitious goal.

Col. Jumma Ibrahim, a rebel spokesman in the western mountains, said his fighters are moving closer to blocking major supply routes to Tripoli from the south and west. The routes are critical for moving food, fuel and weapons over land to the capital.

"This means we are choking Khadafy," he said. "He only has the sea."

He said rebel forces captured the town of Gharyan, 50 miles south of Tripoli, which he said controls the supply road from southern Libya to the capital.

Omar Obeid, field commander for the Sabratha area, 20 miles west of Zawiya on the coast, said rebels have taken up positions in houses along a major supply route there that connects the Ras Ajdir border crossing with Tunisia to Tripoli. The same road runs through Zawiya, where rebels could also block it if they manage to take control of the city.

With NATO imposing a no-fly zone over Libya for months and bombarding regime targets, the coastal road has become a lifeline between the capital and the outside world.

Rebels said they also captured the town of Surman, near Sabratha to the southeast.

After rebels advanced into Zawiya on Saturday, regime forces mounted heavy resistance Sunday with the opposition fighters trying to push deeper into the city of 200,000.

Pro-Khadafy snipers shot at the opposition fighters from an overpass deep in the city, while loud booms echoed, and a column of heavy black smoke rose over the outskirts. Dozens of civilians crammed in cars with their belongings fled the city. In one car, four women cried desperately, and a man driving shouted that there were dead people in his neighborhood.

Libya: Tripoli braces for Gaddafi�s final curtain (long)

# ? Aug 15, 2011 08:54

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Zeina Khodr of AJE has tweeted a few things

quote:

Mortars landing in #Zawiyah ... #Gaddafi forces still putting up a fight for coastal city
Dozens of families continue to arrive to rebel held areas in west fleeing from #Tripoli
Families from #Tripoli say #Gaddafi massed his forces in suburbs of capital particularly near #Zawiyah,

# ? Aug 15, 2011 09:47

Chortles: Dec 29, 2008

Namarrgon posted:

Exactly. If it is true I suspect it are simply the representatives of the high command minus Gaddafi figuring their poo poo out and checking if they can still get off scot-free if they would hand over the colonel.

Reminds me of the almost-ceasefire depicted in Der Untergang ("Downfall," the 2004 German movie) where it fell apart because Marshal Chuikov would only accept a German unconditional surrender*.

* Apparently historically Gen. Krebs was actually sent by Goebbels but not empowered/authorized to offer unconditional surrender, whereas in the movie Goebbels is completely against capitulation and it's another officer who prompts the ceasefire attempt, with Krebs as the envoy, and Krebs merely referring to his government as not willing to unconditionally surrender.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 10:13

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's a video that apparently shows the rebels fighting towards Surman, east of Zawiyah:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG56rjug30w

# ? Aug 15, 2011 10:18

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Today's NATO report is interesting:

quote:

Sorties conducted 14 AUGUST: 119
Strike sorties conducted 14 AUGUST: 26
Key Hits 14 AUGUST:
In the Vicinity of Al Zawiyan: 1 Anti Aircraft Gun.
In the vicinity of :Garyan: 1 Military Facility.
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 11 Surface to Surface Missile Trans/Loader Vehicles, 1 Surface to Surface Missile Trailer, 3 Radars.
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 4 Military Facilities, 1 Command and Control Node, 1 Artillery Piece, 1 Armed Vehicle.

That's the lowest amount of strikes sorties I can remember seeing in a very long time, and it doesn't seem like the Nafusa rebels are getting much help from NATO.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 10:27

Pureauthor: Jul 8, 2010; ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST

Brown Moses posted:

Today's NATO report is interesting:

That's the lowest amount of strikes sorties I can remember seeing in a very long time, and it doesn't seem like the Nafusa rebels are getting much help from NATO.

Is there a possibility that there isn't a whole lot left to attack in the first place?

# ? Aug 15, 2011 10:48

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

It could be that with all the movement on different fronts it's difficult to identifty targets, especially as it seems the rebels in the west aren't using identifying marks, unlike the rebels who attacked Tawergha.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 10:50

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

quote:

Rebel fighters inside #Zawiyah tell me #Gaddafi has about 100 to 150 snipers in city
Battles are ongoing for control of city center of #Zawiyah,
Mortars have landed at the southern entrance of #Zawiyah the area on Sunday was sprawling with people ... Not any longer

There's also claims that Tiji and Mizdah are under rebel control, but there's nothing to indepedently confirm that yet.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 11:07

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Gaddafi made another speech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m93bUXw8au0
Piers Scholfield of the BBC is reporting the Libyan interior minister has taken a family holiday to Cairo:

quote:

Libyan interior minister Nassr al-Mabrouk Abdullah - landed Cairo with 9 family - told Egyptian officials that he was "on a tourist visit."

[edit]Here's more from AP about it:

quote:

Egyptian airport officials say the Libyan interior minister has arrived in Cairo with family members.

The officials say the minister, Nassr al-Mabrouk Abdullah, landed just before noon on Monday at the Cairo international airport, with nine members of his family.

They say he arrived on a special plane from Tunisia and told Egyptian officials that he was "on a tourist visit."

The airport officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk to the media.

The secrecy surrounding the arrival and the fact that no official from the Libyan embassy, which is loyal to Moammar Gadhafi, was at the airport to greet Abdullah, raised suspicions of a possible defection.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 11:43 on Aug 15, 2011

# ? Aug 15, 2011 11:27

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

A good read about the Nafusa rebels on their recent advances:

quote:

Libya's western mountain rebels taste success
Rebels in the western mountains of Libya spent weeks meticulously organizing in the town of Zintan for what has now become the opposition's most successful advance in months against Moammar Gadhafi's forces.

Hundreds of regime opponents filtered in from the coastal city of Zawiya and other parts of the Gadhafi-controlled western heartland along the Mediterranean. They formed fighting units in hopes of "liberating" their home towns.

This town of 40,000 on the plateau of the Nafusa Mountains overlooking the coastal plain has become the nerve center of what is now the most promising front in the rebel campaign to oust Gadhafi: an attempt to flank the grinding deadlock in the center of the country with an assault from the far west.

Already, the rebels have managed to push northward, threatening Gadhafi's main supply line linking the capital of Tripoli with the Tunisian border to the west.

Virtually everyone in Zintan, from policemen to hospital cooks and dentists, has either picked up a gun or works at the home front without pay.

Volunteers distribute food, fuel and supplies trucked in from nearby Tunisia to Zintan's residents to get them through shortages while the town and its neighbors focus on the battle.

Once or twice a week, a small transport plane touches down on an unpaved landing strip, loaded with cash and medical supplies from the rebel capital of Benghazi hundreds of miles away in the east, a vital lifeline for this mountain town that has entirely geared up to fight Gadhafi.

"We are looking for freedom," said Mustafa al-Fakhal, 35.

Al-Fakhal is an engineering teacher, but his current job is welding anti-aircraft weapons and machine guns into the beds of pickup trucks. Such gun-trucks are the workhorses of the rebel fighters, and he and his co-workers have churned them out at a rate of around one a day for the past three months. His volunteer team of six includes three experienced welders, but also a former math teacher with a knack for fixing machines.

Gadhafi's troops are still better equipped, trained and financed, though weakened by five months of NATO airstrikes. Earlier on in the uprising that began in February, regime loyalists managed to repel every advance by the eastern rebels out of the Benghazi and they could still push back the western mountain rebels.

For now, the offensive has brought the biggest successes for the rebels in months. On Saturday, rebels fought their way into one of their key targets, the strategic city of Zawiya, only 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of Tripoli, battling Gadhafi forces in the streets as many residents joined the rebel ranks.

The rebels are pushing down from Zintan and other towns in the Nafusa Mountains into the coastal plain and � they hope � on to the capital, Tripoli.

The fighters, though poorly trained, say they have learned to avoid mistakes that plagued their efforts on the eastern front. In the east, fighters would charge ahead in furious advances, then retreat pell-mell when hit by Gadhafi's artillery and rockets.

The eastern and western rebels appear to coordinate their moves only loosely, hampered by the distance and difficulties of contact and communications with Gadhafi forces holding the middle ground between them.

The western rebels are trying to move more cautiously than the eastern rebels did. As they advanced the past week, they set up rear defensive positions, erecting earth walls and deploying tanks, to fall back to if necessary.

"If we go step by step, slowly, it is better than if we hurry and return back," said Col. Jumma Ibrahim, a rebel spokesman in the mountains.

Still, old habits die hard. Some of the rebels who advanced to Zawiya's edge Saturday charged into the center of the city, vowing to liberate it, only to be ambushed by Gadhafi forces. However, by Sunday, the rebels had consolidated positions in Zawiya.
The people of the Nafusa Mountains, many of them from Libya's long-oppressed ethnic Berber minority, were quick to rise up against Gadhafi when anti-regime protests spread across the country in February. Aided by topography � the plateau towers over the Mediterranean coastal plain � rebels were able to push back regime troops from the string of towns tucked into the mountain after months of shelling and siege.

The scars of that effort remain: There was mutual looting and burning of homes by rebels and Gadhafi supporters, and many of those branded pro-regime have fled, leaving entire towns deserted. In Zintan alone, some 130 people were killed, and rows of graves, marked by crude headstones made of floor tiles or cement blocks, have been added to a sandy lot downtown.

Mountain rebels and their supporters acknowledge the fight could drag on, but say hopefully that victory is inevitable. Gadhafi's grip on Libya is slipping, they say, and he can no longer mount a meaningful counteroffensive.

"There is no chance Gadhafi's troops will return here because we are strong," said Col. Mukhtar Hussein, police chief in Zintan.

For the moment, people here have two pressing concerns � surviving and helping push the front line forward.

Most of the officers in Zintan's police force have gone to join the front, leaving only about 150 in the town, said Hussein � though fortunately, he added, crime is low.

Commerce largely stopped when the uprising erupted, and most people haven't received salaries since then. Tens of thousands of mountain residents now live on pasta, rice and other staples donated by the World Food Program, Libyan expatriates or by the rebel leadership council in Benghazi. Goods are collected in Tunisia, loaded onto trucks and driven to the Nafusa mountains through a border crossing captured by rebels in April.

On a recent morning in Zintan, workers at a central warehouse unloaded a truck carrying dates, in high demand during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which lasts until the end of August. From the warehouse, the goods are distributed to 71 smaller centers across town, according to computerized lists of recipients.

Those who have spare cash buy cigarettes, juice, coffee and other "luxuries." Large crowds form every afternoon, ahead of the evening meal breaking the Ramadan daytime fast, outside small groceries and in the local market.

Most take hardship in stride.

"This is the cost of freedom," said Mubaker Shaeb, a 43-year-old Arabic teacher, standing near a market stall with tomatoes, potatoes and green peppers he can't afford to buy. "I can live without any money, because I am free and this is my city."

Fuel, also trucked in from Tunisia, has become increasingly scarce in the past two weeks, apparently because of a Tunisian crackdown on fuel smuggling to Gadhafi-held areas that seems to be hurting rebel supplies as well. The shortage has disrupted the supply of water, which largely relies on fuel-powered pumps.

Another lifeline is a new air link to Benghazi, the de facto capital of the rebel-held eastern part of Libya, 450 miles (740 kilometers) away. For the past month, small planes have been flying between Benghazi and the western mountains, landing at a desert airstrip outside Zintan and near another town several dozen kilometers away. Planes fly several times a week, carrying passengers, cash and � some say � occasionally weapons.

The leadership in Benghazi, where most international aid is sent, has sent money to Nafusa, including $10 million for distribution to families during Ramadan, said Mukhtar Bakkoush, head of Zintan's local council. However, requests for six months of back pay for civil servants have been turned down.

"They are waiting for money to come from America," Bakkoush said of the rebel government in the east.

The Benghazi leadership has been shaken by the killing of its military chief late last month, possibly by a rival rebel militia. However, the crisis does not seem to have rubbed off on the western rebels, at least on the battlefield.

The Nafusa rebels are fairly autonomous in their military decisions, updating the Benghazi leadership only about the general goals of the current offensive � mainly because of the distance � said Ibrahim, the rebel spokesman.

The overall plan is to capture towns near the capital before launching the push toward Tripoli, with rebel fighters from those cities leading the way. Rebel commanders hope that residents in regime-controlled towns will rise up once the rebels have reached the outskirts of those communities.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 12:12

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# ? Apr 24, 2024 09:21

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Zeina Khodr of AJE is Tweeting some more stuff:

quote:

There is a lot of disputed territory in #Zawiyah battles are continuing,
We entered a few kilometers into #Zawiyah many neighborhoods are deserted,
Shelling is indiscriminate in the city of #Zawiyah,

Rather unhelpfully she doesn't say who is shelling the city indiscriminately.

# ? Aug 15, 2011 12:46

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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