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fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

BlindSite posted:

I managed to hedge bets on okami Silva through a couple of private wagers. Really like his chances after spending so much time with chael. Then again he's traditionally a slow starter which might not bode well against Silva

If there's one thing you can take away from Silva/Maia and Silva/Leites, it's that a grappler that fights cautiously on the feet is not at all guaranteed to get blown out early against Silva.

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ForbiddenWonder
Feb 15, 2003

thanks duane, he went up to +300 yesterday. :cheers:

Bundt Cake
Aug 17, 2003
;(

fatherdog posted:

If there's one thing you can take away from Silva/Maia and Silva/Leites, it's that a grappler that fights cautiously on the feet is not at all guaranteed to get blown out early against Silva.

I agree with your point

but I thought thales pursued takedowns aggressively for the first two rounds. I might be misremembering, but I don't think he started doing his buttflop thing until round 3, and I think he actually won two rounds on some scorecards

well if this play by play is right at all I don't remember correctly http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/4/18/843563/ufc-97-anderson-silva-vs-thales

quote:

Official Scorecards: 49-46, 48-47, 50-46

thales came closer to beating Anderson than anyone but chael

Bundt Cake fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Aug 15, 2011

Shumagorath
Jun 6, 2001
...which I don't understand as Thales had so little offense that Anderson nearly hit a step-behind foot sweep on him. Rounds 4 and 5 should have been 10-8 for the number of times he fell on his rear end to avoid getting hit.

ForbiddenWonder
Feb 15, 2003

re: griffin/shogun chat in the other thread

+180 is pretty good value for forrest right now. I'm also about 70% sure that the line will move even more in his favor come the night of the fight.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


ForbiddenWonder posted:

re: griffin/shogun chat in the other thread

+180 is pretty good value for forrest right now. I'm also about 70% sure that the line will move even more in his favor come the night of the fight.

Forrest is gonna wrestlefuck Shogun, I got him in a parley with Schaub and Silva.

e: haha holy poo poo Forrest is +225, glad I waited before placing my single wager on him

Honestly I don't like a lot of the single lines on this card. Forrest's is the only line that stands out to me as being particularly great to jump on. Gonna stick with several parleys based around those above, along with Paulo, Tavares, Palhares, Barboza, and Cane.

Queering Wheel fucked around with this message at 01:09 on Aug 25, 2011

DumbWhiteGuy
Jul 4, 2007

You need haters. Fellas if you got 20 haters, you need 40 of them motherfuckers. If there's any haters in here that don't have nobody to hate on, feel free to hate on me
Rodrigo Nogueira Admits He Rushed Rehab in Order to Fight at UFC 134

Bodog:
Brendan Schaub wins inside distance +120
Brendan Schaub wins by 3 round decision +240

:crossarms:

Save Russian Jews
Jun 7, 2007

who the fuck is this guy anyway, i can't even see his face

Lipstick Apathy

DumbWhiteGuy posted:

Rodrigo Nogueira Admits He Rushed Rehab in Order to Fight at UFC 134

Bodog:
Brendan Schaub wins inside distance +120
Brendan Schaub wins by 3 round decision +240

:crossarms:

so much money gonna be lost.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002

DumbWhiteGuy posted:

Rodrigo Nogueira Admits He Rushed Rehab in Order to Fight at UFC 134

Bodog:
Brendan Schaub wins inside distance +120
Brendan Schaub wins by 3 round decision +240

:crossarms:

encouraging acts of profound evil is bannable

Paul Pot
Mar 4, 2010

by Y Kant Ozma Post
i'll sleep better tonight knowing that the chances of a big nog victory ruining my parlay just got slimmer. reminds me of that fateful evening i bet a large amount of real money on kendall grove beating evan tanner.

canoshiz
Nov 6, 2005

THANK GOD FOR THE SMOKE MACHINE!
Well, Nog got my hopes up but the rest of the fight ruined my stupid parlay. Don't bet on MMA, y'all

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


gently caress Forrest, gently caress Schaub

I made a slight comeback by betting everything I had on Silva inside distance, but goddamn that sucked.

canoshiz posted:

Don't bet on MMA, y'all

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002
Everyone who bet against Nogueira post here asap. You've earned it.

DumbWhiteGuy
Jul 4, 2007

You need haters. Fellas if you got 20 haters, you need 40 of them motherfuckers. If there's any haters in here that don't have nobody to hate on, feel free to hate on me

human being Martyr posted:

Everyone who bet against Nogueira post here asap. You've earned it.

I didn't actually bet because my money is all tied up in other equally bad bets but if I had money to bet I would have lost it tonight because I'm a stupid gaylord. I'm sorry Mr. Nogueira.

Agent Tough Juice
May 21, 2007

People! I'd like to say a couple words for you: If you have a dream in your life... go head! It's a possible! Go head! I can do that!
This is quickly turning into my favorite thread.

Paul Pot
Mar 4, 2010

by Y Kant Ozma Post

human being Martyr posted:

Everyone who bet against Nogueira post here asap. You've earned it.

nog ruined my parlay, but i still have some money in my account because paul harris won twice

Fentry
Mar 7, 2003



I haven't posted here in a while because I'm still healing from going 11/12 on a multi event parlay and having it broken by Tito Ortiz winning. My confidence has been pretty shot since then

Agent Tough Juice
May 21, 2007

People! I'd like to say a couple words for you: If you have a dream in your life... go head! It's a possible! Go head! I can do that!

Fentry posted:

I haven't posted here in a while because I'm still healing from going 11/12 on a multi event parlay and having it broken by Tito Ortiz winning. My confidence has been pretty shot since then

This should probably be posted in the OP as a warning to others.

Thermos H Christ
Sep 6, 2007

WINNINGEST BEVO
this entire thread is a warning to others

Bundt Cake
Aug 17, 2003
;(
hughes is a dog against sanchez and i need to be here now so i dont lose any money on this

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

by Reene
Hughes was a dog in the third BJ Penn fight. I made that mistake.

Agent Tough Juice
May 21, 2007

People! I'd like to say a couple words for you: If you have a dream in your life... go head! It's a possible! Go head! I can do that!

Bundt Cake posted:

hughes is a dog against sanchez and i need to be here now so i dont lose any money on this

just remember that making money of Hughes' achievements is nothing short of pure evil.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005
If Hughes goes out looking to wrestle he's going to take Diego down and feed him elbows; Diego has pretty much never done poo poo from the bottom to anyone other than a concussed Guida and I doubt he'll do much to Hughes. There is the strong possibility that he'll go out looking to "show off his improved boxing" though, in which case since Diego does have a pretty iron chin his chances of winning another Leonard Garcia special are decent.

Captain Log
Oct 2, 2006

Captain Log posted:

"I AINT DYING! Choo choo motherfucker!"
:toot::birddrugs::toot:

Any good picks tonight? I have never felt so clueless about making picks on a card before.

budreck
Aug 2, 2005

by XyloJW
Bet the farm on J-Mac

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

by Reene
J-Mac's definitely the best bet. Belcher is the better fighter, but his eye was poked out and he's coming off a year and a half layoff so he could be really lovely. At +240 he's really tempting.

Cody Mckenzie at +140 also seems like a decent bet, since all we've seen of Vagner Rocha is the ability to get kicked in the leg over and over again and the only reason he's in the UFC is because he was a late replacement last June.

DumbWhiteGuy
Jul 4, 2007

You need haters. Fellas if you got 20 haters, you need 40 of them motherfuckers. If there's any haters in here that don't have nobody to hate on, feel free to hate on me

Captain Log posted:

Any good picks tonight? I have never felt so clueless about making picks on a card before.

Not MMA but I got Mayweather winning by decision at -150. I feel like this is a pretty likely outcome.

Captain Log
Oct 2, 2006

Captain Log posted:

"I AINT DYING! Choo choo motherfucker!"
:toot::birddrugs::toot:

I hate you all.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Captain Log posted:

I hate you all.
Don't bet on MMA

Captain Log
Oct 2, 2006

Captain Log posted:

"I AINT DYING! Choo choo motherfucker!"
:toot::birddrugs::toot:

I barely follow pro football and get paid every year by it.

I'm obsessed with MMA and can't pick a fight to save my life.

DumbWhiteGuy
Jul 4, 2007

You need haters. Fellas if you got 20 haters, you need 40 of them motherfuckers. If there's any haters in here that don't have nobody to hate on, feel free to hate on me

DumbWhiteGuy posted:

Not MMA but I got Mayweather winning by decision at -150. I feel like this is a pretty likely outcome.

welp

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

attackmole posted:

J-Mac's definitely the best bet. Belcher is the better fighter, but his eye was poked out and he's coming off a year and a half layoff so he could be really lovely. At +240 he's really tempting.

Cody Mckenzie at +140 also seems like a decent bet, since all we've seen of Vagner Rocha is the ability to get kicked in the leg over and over again and the only reason he's in the UFC is because he was a late replacement last June.

Don't bet on MMA. Given the Mayweather-Ortiz situation we can change it to simply "Don't Bet" at this point.

GoonGPT
May 26, 2006

Posting for a better future, today!

Captain Log posted:

I barely follow pro football and get paid every year by it.

I'm obsessed with MMA and can't pick a fight to save my life.

The lesson is never bet when emotions are involved. Also MMA.

-Atom-
Sep 13, 2003

Contrarian Dick

Bad At Everything
I love this thread.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

by Reene

Lid posted:

Don't bet on MMA. Given the Mayweather-Ortiz situation we can change it to simply "Don't Bet" at this point.

I don't. That doesn't stop me from handing out [apparently horrible] speculation though.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
maybe fatherdog could start probating people for putting up bad picks. It would add to the overall enjoyment of this thread. I will start:

bet the farm on boetsch

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Bubba Smith posted:

maybe fatherdog could start probating people for putting up bad picks. It would add to the overall enjoyment of this thread. I will start:

bet the farm on boetsch

As noted in the rules thread, if people get real heated about disagreements in picks they can feel free to bet each other and I'll enforce the bets as if they were :toxx:

manyak
Jan 26, 2006
Jones is going to win this weekend so even though the odds are lovely you could make a little on that. I hope this helps someone

2 fat 4 my lambo
Oct 9, 2003

WEED POOP
i too hope someone bets on jones at -500 odds

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fawker
Feb 1, 2008

ARMBAR!

HATE MONDAYS posted:

Jones is going to win this weekend so even though the odds are lovely you could make a little on that. I hope this helps someone

People said the exact same thing when Rampage fought the coward Machida

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