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2 fat 4 my lambo posted:i too hope someone bets on jones at -500 odds Good. Im glad that you also want people to have fun and make a tidy sum of profit to the tune of 1/5th of their original investment.
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Sep 19, 2011 16:49
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the best part of betting on jones is knowing youre betting on a cool guy who likes to have fun
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Sep 19, 2011 16:56
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-500 for jones sucks. I got -500 for floyd on saturday.
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Sep 19, 2011 19:00
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ForbiddenWonder posted:-500 for jones sucks. I got -500 for floyd on saturday. And he won. Maybe if you had been more confident and bet 5x as much, the "odds" wouldnt have mattered so much.
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Sep 19, 2011 19:04
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i'll take the over/under on that.
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Sep 19, 2011 19:14
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I don't think Rampage is going to win, but seeing sites offering >+400 on him is semi tempting. I don't think his odds are that long to win this fight. He's a big underdog, but he's still a hard to finish guy with lots of power.
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Sep 19, 2011 19:21
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HATE MONDAYS posted:And he won. Maybe if you had been more confident and bet 5x as much, the "odds" wouldnt have mattered so much. that is how I used to bet and it worked pretty well for a while. I'd throw down a lot of money on GSP and just collect a little bit of earnings on it, and use those earnings to make the riskier bets. until one day I bet big on bj penn against a young up and coming kid named frankie and ever since then I haven't bet big on anybody or liked new jersey as much
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Sep 19, 2011 19:32
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Bubba Smith posted:that is how I used to bet and it worked pretty well for a while. I'd throw down a lot of money on GSP and just collect a little bit of earnings on it, and use those earnings to make the riskier bets. I used to do this too until Matt Serra became welterweight champion and then I didn't bet on MMA for a long time. I have forgotten this lesson though so I will keep making awful decisions with my money.
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Sep 19, 2011 22:33
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DumbWhiteGuy posted:I used to do this too until Matt Serra became welterweight champion and then I didn't bet on MMA for a long time. I have forgotten this lesson though so I will keep making awful decisions with my money. Matt Serra paid me good money. 
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Sep 20, 2011 00:22
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+400 on Ramapge Watch a snitch get destroyed and get $500, I'll take that
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Sep 20, 2011 02:09
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I don’t expect much to come out of this; I’m merely just pointing out something that I found interesting in the MMA betting topic. Someone posted this article a while ago UFC Gambling Analysis: Breaking Down 2011 Underdog Performance which broke down all the underdogs in 2011 up to that point (Aug 14). There isn’t much all that fascinating about the article and the writer really doesn’t have a purpose to it, though there is one point of data that should be looked at. +150 to +199 7-28-1 (.194) While the writer does briefly acknowledge this statistic, he doesn’t really understand it. It basically says that underdogs in this range win 19% of the time. That means that the favourites win 81% of the time. In this range, the underdog’s polar partner would usually be around -180 to -260, these equate to winning percentages of 64% to 72%, respectively. That means we would only need a winning percentage of 72% to make money but we are getting 81%. 9% percent doesn’t sound all that much, but let’s just look at it a bit more. We should be betting on the favourites to whoever the underdogs are at +150 to +199. Let’s do some easy math. Taking real odds on an upcoming right, Ben Rothwell (-275) vs Mark Hunt (+195), as this is the most extreme example of the odds not being in the bettors’ favour (+195 is most likely the highest odd you will get as the odds usually move in units of 5 and the next level of +200 would be out of our range). Now apply these values to the data, we will bet $275 to win $100, and ignore the draw as it is basically negligible. 28 wins equals +$2800 (28 times $100 profit). 7 loses equals -$1925 (7 times -$275 loses). Putting the two together nets us at +$875 profit. So out of 35 total fights, equalling $9625 (35 total fights multiplied by $275) total betted, that makes for a return of 9.1% ($875/$9625), slightly better than your average 5% bank savings account. That was an extreme example that made every bet -275, but the average most likely would run around -220. Through the same method as above, the return would be +$1700 off of a total investment of $7700, making the return on investment 22.1%. However, keep in mind that this doesn’t mean that it will hold up in the future from this point on; it could get better, it could get worse, or stay relatively the same (groundbreaking, I know). This is a merely a data trend, so if you are a believer that the past can usually predict the future, this is one of the better ways to bet. It kind of, sort of, maybe makes sense why this category can be so lopsided. The range before is fights that are as close to 50/50 without actually being a coin flip. The results reflect this going 18-16, slight slight slight edge to the underdogs. The range after is where the obvious favourites and underdogs in a match start to appear with the odds makers, public, and bettors. Our category of focus is where it is apparent where the fight should go, who the favourite should be, but it’s still too close to put up the farm on either guy. This means you would have to bet every fight that falls into this category to get the most consistent result. Your best bet would be to get the lines early or wait until their underdog pairing drops to as close to +150 as possible without falling out of range. This also means that the fun and emotion of betting is taken out, which, let’s face it, is pretty much the only reason we like to bet and exactly why you shouldn’t bet on MMA. Not to mention you’re left with cheering for assholes like Ben Rothwell and Nate Diaz to make up your percentage. By no means am I an expert in the topic, or believer in system betting, I just find it a bit interesting. I hope my math is right, or else this will be a bit embarrassing.
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Sep 20, 2011 04:34
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that's a lot of words, just bet on the guy who seems like a cooler dude
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Sep 20, 2011 07:04
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maffew buildings posted:that's a lot of words, just bet on the guy who seems like a cooler dude We did and it led to $640 dollars lost on Mark Coleman.
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Sep 20, 2011 07:14
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My only great regret in life is I did not just send that 20 dollars to Mark Coleman in an envelope. I remember mma daydreaming about telling my friends I just made 62 dollars on Mark Coleman beating randy couture.
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Sep 20, 2011 07:18
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Bubba Smith posted:My only great regret in life is I did not just send that 20 dollars to Mark Coleman in an envelope. I told my friends who were staying over that night that if Coleman won I was paying for dinner the next day. They suggested that if I really had faith in Coleman I would pay for dinner before the PPV, but luckily it was my birthday and they remembered they had already agreed to buy me dinner for that. Not that I would have bought them dinner ahead of time, but it was lucky I didn't have my faith in Coleman tested.
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Sep 20, 2011 07:29
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I dropped $20 on Coleman and convinced all 4 of my MMA friends that Mark Coleman, was in fact going to wrestle Randy into dust. Boy was my face red.
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Sep 20, 2011 13:31
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This thread has inspired me to bet on MMA, which betting site would you recommend for people living in Canada?
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Sep 21, 2011 17:45
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Devoz posted:This thread has inspired me to bet on MMA, which betting site would you recommend for people living in Canada? Havent had any problems withdrawing money. All deposits have to be a minimum of $20 I think
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Sep 21, 2011 21:08
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via middleeasy: http://zooie.wordpress.com/2011/09/21/betting-on-ufc-fights-a-statistical-data-analysis/guy with a spreadsheet posted:Top UFC Insights one of you needs to plunk down a bunch of money using one of these statistics and applying it to every fight on the card Saturday and report back to us on your findings
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Sep 22, 2011 13:07
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And here I wondered what I was going to do with my Thursday. Thanks, ATJ! Edit: Not that I'm going to use real money, I should stress. Remora fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Sep 22, 2011 |
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Sep 22, 2011 15:27
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welp that last one just killed my MMA career.
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Sep 22, 2011 16:52
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Agent Tough Juice posted:
I am super lazy but if someone is able to figure out what fighters this seemingly flawless theory supports, I will happily put 10 bucks on each fight.
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Sep 22, 2011 17:05
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Xguard86 posted:welp that last one just killed my MMA career. Same
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Sep 22, 2011 17:56
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I think I did this right. Mostly. I didn't factor in the wrestling or jiu-jitsu rules because I don't know fighters that well. If somebody who is more versed can supply that information, I'll go back and edit it in. Te Huna (59.83%) vs Romero Takeya (53.08%) vs Escovedo Assuncao (59.14%) vs Yagin Ring (60.83%) vs Boetsch Ferguson (54%) vs Riley Rothwell (55.13%) vs Hunt Diaz (51.33%) vs Gomi Browne (52.33%) vs Broughton Hughes vs Koscheck (50.2%) Jones (56.61%) vs Rampage No idea why it favored red corner like that.
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Sep 22, 2011 18:43
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Remora posted:I think I did this right. Mostly. I didn't factor in the wrestling or jiu-jitsu rules because I don't know fighters that well. If somebody who is more versed can supply that information, I'll go back and edit it in. that looks about right to me. though if the percentages are supposed to be their chances of winning then some of them are really bad bets, ie koscheck having supposedly slightly more than 50% chance of winning yet being down as a -500 favorite on the books
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Sep 22, 2011 18:48
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huh I was thinking just using one of those rules to make all your bets but this is interesting too
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Sep 22, 2011 18:59
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MoneyBall of MMA right here. We'll all be retiring to Palm Springs off our fat winnngs soon.
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Sep 22, 2011 19:58
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I call not being played by Jonah Hill
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Sep 22, 2011 22:56
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statistics are bad and dumb and gomi is going to win
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Sep 22, 2011 23:50
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Remora posted:I think I did this right. Mostly. I didn't factor in the wrestling or jiu-jitsu rules because I don't know fighters that well. If somebody who is more versed can supply that information, I'll go back and edit it in. These were all pretty much my picks anyway. I would normally chuck some money on people like Hunt because of oceanic pride and all that, but this time I will bet purely by statistics. Except for Jones V Rampage. Rampage all the way.
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Sep 23, 2011 03:24
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Well, ELO says Jackson and Gomi should win, so maybe those numbers will make you both happy? Te Huna vs Romero (50.4%) Mizugaki (55%) vs Escovedo Assuncao (50.7%) vs Yagin Ring (52.3%) vs Boetsch Ferguson vs Riley (53.7%) Rothwell (75.7%) vs Hunt Diaz vs Gomi (69.5%) Browne (72.1%) vs Broughton Hughes vs Koscheck (55%) Jones vs Rampage (62.1%)
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Sep 23, 2011 05:02
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$15 on Rampage at +444 cause those odds are out of wack $70 on Koscheck at -420 cause I'm gonna need to make up my lost $15 somehow and no way Koscheck doesn't win
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Sep 23, 2011 06:44
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Korbal posted:$15 on Rampage at +444 cause those odds are out of wack this thread is going to be really funny in a few days
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Sep 23, 2011 07:51
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Doctor Nick posted:this thread is going to be really funny in a few days Really funny because we're all gonna be making mad money on Rampage. 
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Sep 23, 2011 16:58
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After Ellenberger paid me off, I figure Rampage might do the same, +453 is too attractive, put 75 on it.
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Sep 23, 2011 18:11
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Detroit_Dogg posted:Really funny because we're all gonna be making mad money on Rampage. Jones is a stylistic nightmare for him, he's going to lose.
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Sep 24, 2011 02:32
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Alexis Vila at +160 tonight. Crusher/Harris parlay.
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Sep 24, 2011 07:21
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"Fighters with no wrestling background vs fighters who do have one more likely lose This was validated in 64 out of 90 (71%) fights" hmmmm, but I thought wrestling ruined 100% of things?
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Sep 24, 2011 07:36
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MrSmokes posted:Jones is a stylistic nightmare for him, he's going to lose. "Rampage has no avenue to victory in this fight against Machida." Dude killed a baby and got away with it scott free. And he's not an OB/GYN/Planned Parenthood doc. He'll find a way to win.
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Sep 24, 2011 07:38
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Eat This Glob posted:"Rampage has no avenue to victory in this fight against Machida." Dude killed a baby and got away with it scott free. And he's not an OB/GYN/Planned Parenthood doc. He'll find a way to win.
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Sep 24, 2011 10:16
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