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Grandmaster.flv
Jun 24, 2011
Werdum has looked impressive against fat 6ft tall heavyweights before.

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niethan
Nov 22, 2005

Don't be scared, homie!
Also Roy lost to arlovski and monson.

henkman
Oct 8, 2008
I seem to remember the Arlovski loss was because of a bad stand up from the referee, but I'm probably wrong

Grandmaster.flv
Jun 24, 2011
All losses to Arlovski are due to something bad happening

Street Horrrsing
Mar 24, 2010

Godwalker of The Grateful Prisoner



Roy got stood up out of an active kimura attempt. What that means about him getting knocked out in the next round is up for debate. The monson loss was on a boxing/mma hybrid card, and the judging for mma was hilariously bad.

Fentry
Mar 7, 2003



The Monson decision was one of the worst I have ever seen, so I wouldn't hold it against Nelson. That said I still see him losing a decision in a bad fight against Werdum.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

niethan posted:

Also Roy lost to arlovski

So did Werdum.

quote:

and monson.

Nope.


Street Horrrsing posted:

Roy got stood up out of an active kimura attempt. What that means about him getting knocked out in the next round is up for debate.

Also worth noting - Roy had a week's notice for that fight, Arlovski had a month, due to slug-man Gary Shaw.

MycroftXXX
May 10, 2006

A Liquor Never Brewed
I remember watching that Monson fight after those awful boxing decisions earlier on that card and joking that Monson had the fight on lock. Of course the only predictions I successfully make are the terrible kind.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Parlaying Kos with Diaz for tomorrow night. Kos is almost a sure thing so I pretty much did that so I could get even odds for Diaz/Condit.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Ty1990 posted:

Parlaying Kos with Diaz for tomorrow night. Kos is almost a sure thing

Not really.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

fatherdog posted:

Not really.

Well I'm relativley new to following MMA (around UFC 100 I started following) so I reckon most posters here have stronger grip on this than I do...care to explain why? I realize "it's a fight and it only takes one shot", but when I heard this mathchup I expected at least a -300 price stamped on Kos.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Ty1990 posted:

Well I'm relativley new to following MMA (around UFC 100 I started following) so I reckon most posters here have stronger grip on this than I do...care to explain why? I realize "it's a fight and it only takes one shot", but when I heard this mathchup I expected at least a -300 price stamped on Kos.

It would probably be quicker for you to explain why you think Kos is "almost a sure thing", since there aren't many reasons to actually think that

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

fatherdog posted:

It would probably be quicker for you to explain why you think Kos is "almost a sure thing", since there aren't many reasons to actually think that

Nothing is a sure thing. That was probably too strong a statement to make. However unless Kos has an awful night, or overlooks Pierce (if there's such a thing), I don't see Pierce winning. Kos is as good or better at almost everything.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002
Pierce is secretly a really good fighter and this is going to be a very competitive fight

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Ty1990 posted:

Kos is as good or better at almost everything.

Actually he's almost definitely a worse technical striker than Pierce (although he probably hits harder), has a worse chin, and I doubt anyone can say who's actually better on the ground.

Bundt Cake
Aug 17, 2003
;(
Kos has a presumed wrestling advantage in most fights, so Koscheck v a wrestler who isn't very well known,., I can understand why someone would think that Kos would have it in the bag.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002
Also since this is the degenerates thread, my den of iniquity has Kos by decision at +100 and Pierce by decision at +333, and this is a fight I see being a close decision. I bet both ways :getin:

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

fatherdog posted:

Actually he's almost definitely a worse technical striker than Pierce

I'd disagree with this personally, but I'm not going to act like I break down film on each man.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
Where is Mike Pierce's jiu jitsu at? I can't find any info about who he trains under and for how long. Koscheck might have the edge in that.

There are no bets on this card I feel comfortable with at all. I'm just going to do a lot of dumb parlays and hope for the best.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002

Ty1990 posted:

I'd disagree with this personally, but I'm not going to act like I break down film on each man.

he can throw power shots with more than one hand

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Ty1990 posted:

I'd disagree with this personally, but I'm not going to act like I break down film on each man.

Kos thinks his striking is a lot better than it really is. He gets hit a lot, and while he has power, so does Pierce. Kos has the wrestling advantage, but I don't think he has so much of an advantage that he'll reliably get Pierce down and keep him there. I see this fight consisting of a lot of standup, with Pierce having the edge. Kos really doesn't have a distinct path to victory in this fight like he did against Daley (wrestling) or Hughes (striking), and even Hughes was landing a lot at first.

In short Pierce is a really good underdog.

Bundt Cake
Aug 17, 2003
;(

MrSmokes posted:

but I don't think he has so much of an advantage that he'll reliably get Pierce down and keep him there.

there's a good chance this assumption is incorrect

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Bundt Cake posted:

there's a good chance this assumption is incorrect

There is, but there's also a good chance it's not, and I'm not sure we've actually seen enough to say either way.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

MrSmokes posted:

Kos thinks his striking is a lot better than it really is. He gets hit a lot, and while he has power, so does Pierce. Kos has the wrestling advantage, but I don't think he has so much of an advantage that he'll reliably get Pierce down and keep him there. I see this fight consisting of a lot of standup, with Pierce having the edge. Kos really doesn't have a distinct path to victory in this fight like he did against Daley (wrestling) or Hughes (striking), and even Hughes was landing a lot at first.

In short Pierce is a really good underdog.

Solid points and fair enough. That being said I still don't think Pierce wins this fight. Kos by UD I'm thinking.

Bundt Cake
Aug 17, 2003
;(

fatherdog posted:

There is, but there's also a good chance it's not, and I'm not sure we've actually seen enough to say either way.

Even if Kos does have a big wrestling advantage he still might Stand and Bang !!! anyway

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Ty1990 posted:

Solid points and fair enough. That being said I still don't think Pierce wins this fight. Kos by UD I'm thinking.

There's nothing wrong with thinking Kos will win; I was just responding to you calling him a sure thing, which I think there are way too many ifs and unknowns to be even remotely sure of.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Bundt Cake posted:

Even if Kos does have a big wrestling advantage he still might Stand and Bang !!! anyway

Kos is usually pretty consistent in that he'll Stand And Bang until he starts getting the worst of it, at which point he'll immediately start wrestling.

Bundt Cake
Aug 17, 2003
;(

fatherdog posted:

Kos is usually pretty consistent in that he'll Stand And Bang until he starts getting the worst of it, at which point he'll immediately start wrestling.

Sure but there are fights he approaches differently. And I think he might be a bad judge of how the stand up is going for him

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Bundt Cake posted:

Sure but there are fights he approaches differently.

Honestly aside from the Daley fight I have a hard time thinking of any, unless you go back to before the second Diego fight which was where he started to have confidence in his punching.

quote:

And I think he might be a bad judge of how the stand up is going for him

This, I can agree with.

Bundt Cake
Aug 17, 2003
;(

fatherdog posted:

Honestly aside from the Daley fight I have a hard time thinking of any, unless you go back to before the second Diego fight which was where he started to have confidence in his punching.

The ones that come to mind are the Diego rematch, where his plan seemed to be more along the lines of stay far away then steal the round with a takedown at the end, until Diego swept him in two seconds and his plan changed to stay far away 100% of the time. Though he never ended up getting in trouble standing, so maybe he would've shot. The Alves fight he seemed to pretty much want to get it down like the Daley fight but he couldn't. The Lytle fight too, he looked to get it down until he gassed hard and Lytle punched him a bunch of times in the third. Against Hazelett Koscheck kept swinging even after he got rocked, although he did go for takedowns in that fight.

Anyway it's not many exceptions but it seems like there are times when he has a bit of a different game plan.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Bundt Cake posted:

The Alves fight he seemed to pretty much want to get it down like the Daley fight but he couldn't. The Lytle fight too, he looked to get it down until he gassed hard and Lytle punched him a bunch of times in the third.

See these fit in with my "keep it standing till he's getting the worst of it", because he didn't start shooting in the Alves fight until Alves had already knocked him down, and one of the first things Lytle did in that fight iirc was throw about fifteen haymakers, about five of which connected which I figured at the time was, despite Lytle's lack of power, enough to make Kos decide it was a better idea to sit on him.

Boregasm
Nov 18, 2009
The only decent bet on this card is Figueroa at -130. He had an amazing fight with McDonald on very short notice and embarrassed Reinhardt (such great heights) whereas Bruce Leroy has only looked good in his strength (striking) against Cole Escovedo, who sucks. 6 days notice and cut 20lbs and held his own against a real prospect in McDonald, compared to some dude who's only in the UFC because he's relatively charismatic in a shallow division. Do the smart thing and bet your life savings on Figueroa.

All the other odds on the card are pinpoint. Really well matched card.

Patient_Toffee
Apr 21, 2006

Break me off, show me what you got
Cause I don't want, no one minute man
Bodog has Henry Martinez at 3.80 against Matt Riddle, and well Matt Riddle is pretty terrible so this would seem worth a shot.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Boregasm posted:

The only decent bet on this card is Figueroa at -130. He had an amazing fight with McDonald on very short notice and embarrassed Reinhardt (such great heights) whereas Bruce Leroy has only looked good in his strength (striking) against Cole Escovedo, who sucks. 6 days notice and cut 20lbs and held his own against a real prospect in McDonald, compared to some dude who's only in the UFC because he's relatively charismatic in a shallow division. Do the smart thing and bet your life savings on Figueroa.

All the other odds on the card are pinpoint. Really well matched card.

This is the only bet I really ended up doing. I can't see why the betting lines are so close for this one. Caceres has just been a joke since he started on TUF, albeit a fun one to watch. Figueroa may have a future in the division, but truthfully I can't even remember his fight with Reinhardt.

Eh, it can't be worse than having faith in Demian Maia.

The major plays I did are Nelson at +140 and Figueroa at -130.

Fentry
Mar 7, 2003



I put most of my bankroll up on Diaz tonight, if he wins it should get me enough to buy a Vaporizer in his honor. Also put side bets on Clifford Starks by decision since he's a D1 wrestler and Ed Herman is dumb, and a couple small parlays.

ForbiddenWonder
Feb 15, 2003

condit gonna win ya'll, easy money

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
We totally deserved the Figueroa win, and totally didn't at the same time.

bet on MMA ya'll.

Boregasm
Nov 18, 2009
Figueroa has no balls or ground skills but I deserve every dollar that I made off of him.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002

Ty1990 posted:

Well I'm relativley new to following MMA (around UFC 100 I started following) so I reckon most posters here have stronger grip on this than I do...care to explain why? I realize "it's a fight and it only takes one shot", but when I heard this mathchup I expected at least a -300 price stamped on Kos.

You got lucky this time, but soon you will learn not to bet on MMA.

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Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

:stare: I stand corrected on Pierce.

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