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Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
this might be the first card in a while where an upset doesn't happen (betting wise) unless Nelson or Condit win.

All of my dumb parlays with like five favorites are pretty much a sure thing now.

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Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002

Bubba Smith posted:

this might be the first card in a while where an upset doesn't happen (betting wise) unless Nelson or Condit win.

All of my dumb parlays with like five favorites are pretty much a sure thing now.

I've made like a billion long parlays on this card which have pushed me into profit. Cool party.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

You got lucky this time, but soon you will learn not to bet on MMA.

Believe me, it's noted.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002


i forget how much this parlay pays. this is where a diaz robs me of money again.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002
how predictable

oldfan
Jul 22, 2007

"Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

how predictable

Don't Bet On A Diaz

Fentry
Mar 7, 2003



I'm very sad right now

Boregasm
Nov 18, 2009

Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

how predictable

You jinxed yourself and I am incredibly happy about it. Condit ruined my 4 fight parlay but Nick Diaz tears are priceless.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Don't bet on MMA.

david carmichael
Oct 28, 2011

Chimney Sweeps Week posted:



i forget how much this parlay pays. this is where a diaz robs me of money again.

WEIRD. WHO COULD HAVE PREDICTED THAT BETTING ON MMA WOULD BE UNPROFITABLE

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002

david carmichael posted:

WEIRD. WHO COULD HAVE PREDICTED THAT BETTING ON MMA WOULD BE UNPROFITABLE

actually thus far i've made £7. read it and weep.

Intel&Sebastian
Oct 20, 2002

colonel...
i'm trying to sneak around
but i'm dummy thicc
and the clap of my ass cheeks
keeps alerting the guards!

Fentry posted:

I put most of my bankroll up on Diaz tonight, if he wins it should get me enough to buy a Vaporizer in his honor.

I was actually saddened as I read this.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
Does anyone else think Dave Herman at -125 to Stefan Struve is a decent bet? Jiu-jitsu doesn't work and all. Not on Dave Herman.

Grandmaster.flv
Jun 24, 2011
Oddly, Herman's jits works.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002

Bubba Smith posted:

Does anyone else think Dave Herman at -125 to Stefan Struve is a decent bet? Jiu-jitsu doesn't work and all. Not on Dave Herman.

Probably, but I also can't imagine a fight screaming "holy poo poo don't bet on me" any harder than Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman

Intel&Sebastian
Oct 20, 2002

colonel...
i'm trying to sneak around
but i'm dummy thicc
and the clap of my ass cheeks
keeps alerting the guards!
I would take that bet. Pat Barry, Sean McCorkle and Christian Morecraft are all confirmed terrible HW's. At least the jury is still out on Einemo (which is of course dependant on whether you think Mike Russow is actually that good).

Intel&Sebastian fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Feb 8, 2012

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002

Intel&Sebastian posted:

I would take that bet. Pat Barry, Sean McCorkle and Christian Morecraft are all confirmed terrible HW's. At least the jury is still out on Einemo.

Dave Herman lost to a Korean heavyweight

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

Probably, but I also can't imagine a fight screaming "holy poo poo don't bet on me" any harder than Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman

Yeah, but right now Struve is already starting to move up on most betting sites. I figure if I'm going to bet on Herman I might as well do it now.

Boregasm
Nov 18, 2009
I put money on Herman at -120 but it should be a stay away/low bet fight due to the circumstances. I'm just a degenerate.

Quodio Stotes
Aug 8, 2010

by angerbot
apparently Nate Diaz opened up at +190 against Jim Miller. A- what books post lines this early B- I'm thinking of signing up between 5 dimes and bovada what should I do? Bovada seems to put lines up too late, but 5 dimes is asking me to provide part of my ssn to use my debit card.

Paul Pot
Mar 4, 2010

by Y Kant Ozma Post
1. some sites let you bet on anderson-gsp, but i don't see the point in putting your money up before the weigh ins. people get injured, which might make your parlay less desirable and some people (thiago alves) look like poo poo at weight ins

2. since you're one of those geniuses that thought maia should be favored against bisping, i would strongly advise against betting real money and instead to stick with being a highly opinionated goon.

3. i was down to half of my initial investment after yamasaki ruined my parlay, but managed to quadruple that dosh during my latest "time out". awww yeah, at least my wallet appreciates the man with the most hardcore insight on ultimate fighting, futa and phimosis.

4. is ellenberger-sanchez 3 or 5 rounds, because that would make a huge difference..

Mr.Showtime
Oct 22, 2006
I'm not going to say that
Pretty sure its 3.

Quodio Stotes
Aug 8, 2010

by angerbot

Paul Pot posted:

2. since you're one of those geniuses that thought maia should be favored against bisping, i would strongly advise against betting real money and instead to stick with being a highly opinionated goon.

Ha, ok bud. Hey, everybody look, the shithead got back from his 30 day vacation, what a treat.
Hey look what someone said

Paul Pot posted:

Maia is a good bet but there's no reason to believe Maia isn't another favorable stylistic matchup for Bisping. It'll depend on how good Maia put his strikes and takedowns together IMO..

I really hope you hit the sticks again soon. Also, no-one knew who gassy maia was gonna be, and the reason bisping looked good during the chael fight is cause he caught and stunned chael early (and was grabbing the cage like a forlorn ape). Bisping is no way immune to wrestling now.

Paul Pot
Mar 4, 2010

by Y Kant Ozma Post
Good bet as a 3 to 1 underdog or w/e he was, not good enough that he should've been favored as the dummies were advocating. Bisping has always had great defensive grappling btw, but feel free to ignore my friendly advice and bet on a sport you don't understand.

Quodio Stotes
Aug 8, 2010

by angerbot

Paul Pot posted:

Good bet as a 3 to 1 underdog or w/e he was, not good enough that he should've been favored as the dummies were advocating. Bisping has always had great defensive grappling btw, but feel free to ignore my friendly advice and bet on a sport you don't understand.

Oh, I will ignore you dont worry.

Meat Recital
Mar 26, 2009

by zen death robot
Anyone have any cool bets for this week's fights? I'm I'm going to take a flyer on De Fries at +350, and I'm thinking about Simpson, Albert, and maybe Koivinen.

Paul Pot
Mar 4, 2010

by Y Kant Ozma Post
I've got a :10bux: Ellenberger-Miosic-Markes parlay going. Ellenberger is the better striker/wrestler/powerpuncher with a good chin of his own and I don't see cardio being a factor before the 3rd round. Miosic is actually a true heavyweight with good wrestling vs an Englishman that barely beat Rob Broughton. Very certain about those two so then I added Markes at even odds for a better payout. Simpson looked pretty lost the times he couldn't outwrestle his opponents and Markes is striker (didn't see much of it tho) from Aldo's camp that outwrestled that Czech gorilla wrestling champ at 205 last time.

All I really know is that I'm staying the gently caress away from Struve-Herman.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
I like Ronny Markes too, even though I feel bad betting against a phoenix wrestler dude. Until those Nova Uniao guys start looking bad against wrestlers I'm gonna keep picking them cause they are earning me money in the meantime. seriously what the gently caress is going on in Brazil.

Other than that I put (not a lot of) money on Ivan Menjivar. Just cause he's a cool dude.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002
Regular Big Stupid Parlay Update: That stupid rear end in a top hat with the stupid hair ruined it by hurting his ankle and not going and getting beaten up

Paul Pot
Mar 4, 2010

by Y Kant Ozma Post
Stop being so greedy, MMA is just too dumb for huge parlays.

Edgar at even odds and Akiyama as a 4-1 underdog seem like the best bets. Probably gonna parlay Frankie with Rampage because I can't picture Bader winning that fight.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Paul Pot posted:

Rampage because I can't picture Bader winning that fight.

Me neither.

Is it really really retarded to bet on Joe Lauzon or only slightly retarded? The answer will result in how much money I put on him.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

Bubba Smith posted:

Me neither.

Is it really really retarded to bet on Joe Lauzon or only slightly retarded? The answer will result in how much money I put on him.

Lauzon is one of the most dangerous guys in the division, but only for the first six or seven minutes. Plan accordingly.

Paul Pot
Mar 4, 2010

by Y Kant Ozma Post
Betting on Lauzon is like betting on a Heavyweight/Melvin fight. I don't recommend it, but sometimes the urge is too strong.

Bundt Cake
Aug 17, 2003
;(
Don't bet on Lauzon against Pettis. its crazy. Pettis is a really good fighter, and theres a good chance Lauzon won't be able to get him down at all. And even if he gets him down, theres slim to no chance hes going to be the first guy to TKO Pettis. There are a lot of times when I have and would pick Lauzon but this ain't one

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002

Paul Pot posted:

Stop being so greedy, MMA is just too dumb for huge parlays.

Edgar at even odds and Akiyama as a 4-1 underdog seem like the best bets. Probably gonna parlay Frankie with Rampage because I can't picture Bader winning that fight.

actually it is exactly dumb enough and they ended up paying out anyway

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Bundt Cake posted:

Don't bet on Lauzon against Pettis. its crazy. Pettis is a really good fighter, and theres a good chance Lauzon won't be able to get him down at all. And even if he gets him down, theres slim to no chance hes going to be the first guy to TKO Pettis. There are a lot of times when I have and would pick Lauzon but this ain't one

Alright, this sounds good. Just like fatherdog talked about Joe Lauzon seems like a really good fighter too (at certain times during the fight) and I figured he may be able to win the first two rounds in a fight that goes to the decision. But I guess I'll just stay away and put more money on Frankie.

1st AD
Dec 3, 2004

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu: sometimes passing just isn't an option.
I really wouldn't count on Lauzon to see the better side of a decision - he doesn't have the gas to go more than a round and change. If he doesn't stop a fight in the first round he's gonna lose.

All but one of his losses have come after the first round.

Bundt Cake
Aug 17, 2003
;(

Bubba Smith posted:

Alright, this sounds good. Just like fatherdog talked about Joe Lauzon seems like a really good fighter too (at certain times during the fight) and I figured he may be able to win the first two rounds in a fight that goes to the decision. But I guess I'll just stay away and put more money on Frankie.

Lauzon has the skills/brains to take out guys with some weakness he can exploit, usually poo poo ground game or bad punching habits. Pettis looked wrestleable against Clay, but hardly anyone has the style of wrestling that Clay does, and Pettis has showed some good wrestling ability before. Joe can't imitate Clay's takedown attack for three rounds unless he's tripled his endurance. So unless he has found some hole to exploit in Pettis' striking, or something he does on the ground that Joe could take advantage of to land shots, I don't really know what Joe's path to victory would be.

Pettis has fought Castillo, Roller, Henderson and Guida in the past few years so he's familiar with fighting wrestlers as good or better than Lauzon. Both Pettis & Joe outwrestled Jeremy Stephens. Joe did it by a bigger margin but Stephens took that one on short notice. THe fights are years apart so maybe Stephens improved, too, who knows.

Triticum Guzzler
Jun 16, 2002
So uhhhh, my site just started offering prop bets on the post event bonuses, and they don't seem to understand how they work at all. They have Edgar vs Bendo listed at +300, then Edgar and Bendo listed separately at like +2500 and +2800 :staredog:

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Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
wow. bet all kinds of money on frankie edgar winning some award.

So far I have bet exactly 5 dollars on Frankie Edgar and that is it. I'm being kind of a puss with this card. Joe Lauzon was gonna be my dumb upset bet but you guys talked me out of that and now gently caress.

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