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Talks To Cats
Jan 7, 2012
I hate my job and I hate you, but I'll put up with my job because it makes me a shit-ton of money. I can tell you how to do the same...but you won't listen.

I support charity:water with my erotica charity bundles. Water changes everything.

Quodio Stotes posted:

What was my demeanor exactly? I explained I was willing to learn and had an interest in the subject. Is that not a precursor for success in any field? I told you I was going to be conservative and did not expect to do well so your response was a little annoying. I don't care that much I just really don't get what you are trying to say about my so called demeanor.
This is why you won't do well. You care too much about being right.

The best thing to do is to not try to convince posters in this thread that Forex is a good opportunity, but rather to go looking for people that already believe that and will give you the help you want.

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Quodio Stotes
Aug 8, 2010

by angerbot

Talks To Cats posted:

This is why you won't do well. You care too much about being right.

The best thing to do is to not try to convince posters in this thread that Forex is a good opportunity, but rather to go looking for people that already believe that and will give you the help you want.

Not about being right, I just don't like armchair psychologists.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

What about currency ETFs?

Ultrashort Euro is doing ok. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3AEUO

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Ola posted:

What about currency ETFs?

Ultrashort Euro is doing ok. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3AEUO

I'd strongly recommend against going into Ultrashorts of ANY KIND considering the nature of their returns (i.e. only matches daily returns).

African AIDS cum
Feb 29, 2012


Welcome back, welcome back, welcome baaaack

Quodio Stotes posted:

One example of a less risky buy and hold strategy I was thinking about would be buying currency in a stable petro-economy when global oil prices drop (as they have recently) waiting til oil rises again and the currency returns to a similar previous value then selling off (I've monitored this trend in a few economies and the currencies frequently appreciate 10% or more in the course of a month). I would imagine investing in something like this would be way less risky then betting on daily fluctuations in currency.

Oh my god this is precious

Good luck in your pip watching goals bro. Forex was fun scalping in 2009 but those days are gone.

Quodio Stotes
Aug 8, 2010

by angerbot

please respond posted:

Oh my god this is precious

Good luck in your pip watching goals bro. Forex was fun scalping in 2009 but those days are gone.

Ok bro, I'm glad you got in here man! You're so cash, teach me the ropes bro.

African AIDS cum
Feb 29, 2012


Welcome back, welcome back, welcome baaaack

Quodio Stotes posted:

Ok bro, I'm glad you got in here man! You're so cash, teach me the ropes bro.

Tell us more about your Economics bachelors degree in psuedoscience and how you will get rich going long on Saudi Riyals.

Quodio Stotes
Aug 8, 2010

by angerbot

please respond posted:

Tell us more about your Economics bachelors degree in psuedoscience and how you will get rich going long on Saudi Riyals.

You're trying really hard to be a hotshot and funny at the sametime and its pretty pathetic. I admitted I knew nothing about forex and was looking for advice not a parade of assholes.

PRADA SLUT
Mar 14, 2006

Inexperienced,
heartless,
but even so
Can someone give me recommended reading on some of the more "advanced" topics of trading?

I'm actually just interested in knowing more about the complicated and technical parts of trading (basically things that aren't covered in babby's first investment book). Derivative contracts, futures, various swaps, etc. I don't plan on executing any such trades so I'm not looking for strategies, I just really want to understand some of the more complicated bits of the markets.

Gmaz
Apr 3, 2011

New DLC for Aoe2 is out: Dynasties of India
For what you're looking for, I think investopedia should have sufficient information.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

shrike82 posted:

I'd strongly recommend against going into Ultrashorts of ANY KIND considering the nature of their returns (i.e. only matches daily returns).

I've been trying to wrap my head around this. If you can use ETFs to ride a commodity price trend and get 5-6% in a week or two, does it matter so much that it didn't track the target index perfectly? It is a short term speculative instrument after all. You're not hurting if you get 4.9% instead of 5%, but it would be bad if for some reason you got -10% instead of +5%. One thing I would worry about is the ETF issuer suddenly going tits up, don't know if there's ever been an ETF-crash like that.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

PRADA SLUT posted:

Can someone give me recommended reading on some of the more "advanced" topics of trading?

I'm actually just interested in knowing more about the complicated and technical parts of trading (basically things that aren't covered in babby's first investment book). Derivative contracts, futures, various swaps, etc. I don't plan on executing any such trades so I'm not looking for strategies, I just really want to understand some of the more complicated bits of the markets.

Investopedia is a good place to learn (or recall) the basics. Once you feel like you know the basics, I recommend Option Volatility & Pricing and Understanding Options.

There's some overlap between the Investopedia material and the second book, so if you only want to get one book, I'd probably get the first one.

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel
Where is that guy who put his child's college fund into FB....

idolmind86
Jun 13, 2003

It's better to burn out than to fade away.

It's even better to work out, numbnuts.
As much as I just want to post "LOL FB" I'll just say I really hope nobody on here bought into the IPO hype on an extremely overvalued stock and lost a lot of money. Just a reiteration that you should really have a fundamental understanding of the market and how it works (and who controls the market) before rushing in going OMG Facebook I have to have it.

mik
Oct 16, 2003
oh
Current street rate to borrow FB is $0.06 per share. There's quite a bit of short demand, unsurprisingly I guess.

Something lawful
Aug 13, 2007
wut wut

mik posted:

Current street rate to borrow FB is $0.06 per share. There's quite a bit of short demand, unsurprisingly I guess.
Per day? Gimmie!

COUNTIN THE BILLIES
Jan 8, 2006

by Ion Helmet

Cheesemaster200 posted:

Where is that guy who put his child's college fund into FB....

I read he had second thoughts when everyone was freaking out about it. Apparently the dad is in charge of the investment club at his daughter's school.

idolmind86 posted:

As much as I just want to post "LOL FB" I'll just say I really hope nobody on here bought into the IPO hype on an extremely overvalued stock and lost a lot of money. Just a reiteration that you should really have a fundamental understanding of the market and how it works (and who controls the market) before rushing in going OMG Facebook I have to have it.

Not me, still have a bid at $29. I may pull the trigger if it gets close but doesn't hit like around $32. I think stocks are going to hit lows in the next couple of weeks so I'll wait for that.

Edit: It may just hit 29.

COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 15:44 on May 21, 2012

MrBigglesworth
Mar 26, 2005

Lover of Fuzzy Meatloaf
Wonder how many regular guys got in at the opening price of $45, only to be down now to $33.78....ooooouch.

agarjogger
May 16, 2011
Good, I'm loving sick of tech IPO's anyway. Facebook is a boring company.
Now give me more of those sweet, sweet life science start-ups.

Dolphin
Dec 5, 2008

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
I just jumped on the TEF boat too, they look nice and healthy and 12.49 is cheap as poo poo.

Crazyweasel
Oct 29, 2006
lazy

Colleague of mine bought at 40 hoping for a pop. When it was at 42 I told him to sell so he could at least cover commission to which he laughed and said be would have no problem covering it. I don't know how much total he had into it but from that comment it doesn't look positive. He also isn't at work today, sooooo....

Fate Accomplice
Nov 30, 2006




Crazyweasel posted:

Colleague of mine bought at 40 hoping for a pop. When it was at 42 I told him to sell so he could at least cover commission to which he laughed and said be would have no problem covering it. I don't know how much total he had into it but from that comment it doesn't look positive. He also isn't at work today, sooooo....

My slightly similar but happier story: 10 days ago my father messaged me indicating that etrade had offered him shares at the ipo price. We scrambled around moving money, eventually cobbling together a pretty hefty amount, in the thousands of shares worth. I went to sleep thursday super optimistic, despite my father warning me that we'd likely only get a small percentage of the shares we requested.

Friday morning I find out they only allotted us 100, and I was super disappointed, until I saw what happened.

Could have been a gigantic trip to the woodshed, but lesson learned about irrational exuberance.

agarjogger
May 16, 2011

Crazyweasel posted:

Colleague of mine bought at 40 hoping for a pop. When it was at 42 I told him to sell so he could at least cover commission to which he laughed and said be would have no problem covering it. I don't know how much total he had into it but from that comment it doesn't look positive. He also isn't at work today, sooooo....

Bummer. I mean people were warned, right? Practically the whole business press agreed that this was a very dangerous IPO to get excited about and that retail investors should probably stay the hell away until the smoke clears. I hope not too many Joes out there discovered eTrade on Wednesday night.
Counterpoint: It's FACEBOOK! Tough call, anyway.

COUNTIN THE BILLIES
Jan 8, 2006

by Ion Helmet
I really like this chart:



Notice the bump in the summer is just analyst expected earnings and should be taken with a hint of salt.

alnilam
Nov 10, 2009

alnilam posted:

New(b) question, speaking of things that are safe as houses.
I'm trying to understand why etf TIP looks like it gives better returns than actual US bonds.

My hypothesis is this:
1. The return of the bonds themselves provides the dividend.
2. The return of the share price itself comes from just the fact that it's a traded entity - it's the result of whether or not investors are desiring this thing.

So by buying this fund, one gets dividends roughly equivalent to having bonds (without having to have actual bonds). And as a bonus, the return is even better if you sell later, as long as investors keep driving its share price up.

Is this about right?

Going back to this (unanswered, but that's okay), I did some really basic analysis and I had an idea I wanted to run by you guys about TIP (iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (ETF)).
The price of the etf TIP has done a drop-then-rebound the last few times they paid dividends, the day of/after the payout. And trading volume is high during that time. So it seems that a lot of people who want to sell their position during the month decide to wait until the next dividend (why not) and then get out, and so the shares go on sale.
So if I want some of TIP, I was thinking I'd wait and see if they pay a dividend on 1 June, and buy it when it drops.
This is my first attempt at predicting the future but this seems like a pretty basic thing based on observation and with a logical cause.
Does this make sense?

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


In light of FB's price action, I bought some more AAPL since it's had a 15% retracement. Unlike FB, AAPL has real earnings and a crazy low multiple.

(I also bought 50 shares of FB for fun at $39 on Friday :negative: )

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
Why are retail investors even buying in to an IPO? IPO are for institutions and the point is to raise money for the company issuing the stock and for the institutions underwriting the sale. What happened to FB was the ideal scenario, they were reasonably accurate in determining the market rate and raised more money than expected. If the share value pops that means the IPO failed (left money on the table) or that hype has taken over (irrational market). Gambling on one of those as a retail investor is asking to lose money.

Given the extent of the forces working against the retail investor, buying in to an IPO as one is a fool's errand.

Doghouse
Oct 22, 2004

I was playing Harvest Moon 64 with this kid who lived on my street and my cows were not doing well and I got so raged up and frustrated that my eyes welled up with tears and my friend was like are you crying dude. Are you crying because of the cows. I didn't understand the feeding mechanic.
Can anyone recommend some extremely basic info on how stocks and stock trading work? Internet articles or books both would work. I am talking "for dummies" level - I am curious about it, but I want something that doesn't assume I know anything. I don't even understand what the concept of a stock is and why they exist. I would also like to know exactly how online trading works at the most basic level - how easy and quick are the transactions, etc.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Malloreon posted:

My slightly similar but happier story: 10 days ago my father messaged me indicating that etrade had offered him shares at the ipo price. We scrambled around moving money, eventually cobbling together a pretty hefty amount, in the thousands of shares worth. I went to sleep thursday super optimistic, despite my father warning me that we'd likely only get a small percentage of the shares we requested.

Friday morning I find out they only allotted us 100, and I was super disappointed, until I saw what happened.

Could have been a gigantic trip to the woodshed, but lesson learned about irrational exuberance.

I'm disappointed in the whole thing too, but come on, its not everyday someone gives you $200-$300 for doing almost nothing. You did sell the first day, right?

Quodio Stotes
Aug 8, 2010

by angerbot

Doghouse posted:

Can anyone recommend some extremely basic info on how stocks and stock trading work? Internet articles or books both would work. I am talking "for dummies" level - I am curious about it, but I want something that doesn't assume I know anything. I don't even understand what the concept of a stock is and why they exist. I would also like to know exactly how online trading works at the most basic level - how easy and quick are the transactions, etc.

I think you might be best suited by a textbook treatment. I can't think of one off the top of my head, but there was one in school that I read went over the history of trade and stocks (all while explaining their purpose) and was very informative. It is more of a primer than an in depth look but I think it is a good place to start if you know nothing. Usually the stock market is a small part of a bigger topic in these books. I will look for the one book I had in mind and post if I find it.

Quodio Stotes fucked around with this message at 19:18 on May 21, 2012

Shrinkage
Oct 23, 2010
So, STD, is it another AIB or will it's latin america exposure protects it from the shitstorm that is Europe?

Turkeybone
Dec 9, 2006

:chef: :eng99:

Baddog posted:

I'm disappointed in the whole thing too, but come on, its not everyday someone gives you $200-$300 for doing almost nothing. You did sell the first day, right?

You did buy at the bottom and sell at the top, right? :rolleyes:

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Turkeybone posted:

You did buy at the bottom and sell at the top, right? :rolleyes:

I don't have the exact numbers, but very few IPO's lose money the first day, in fact morgan stanley defended the price and made sure this one didn't, even with a lot of pressure on it. Even the IPOs which end up losing money at the close of the first day usually opened with a decent pop and traded above for a decent amount of time.

So if you get some shares allocated before open and sell them the first day (early in the day preferably), you've got a huge percentage chance of making some money. Problem is they won't give you any more shares for a long time, unless you make your broker a lot of money in commissions or something else.

I dunno where your sarcasm is coming from, its a huge percentage play for at least some amount of gain. And I don't get why people are all of a sudden "oh my god no one should ever even attempt at getting shares allocated to them in an IPO unless you are a big institution".

People should attempt to get as many shares as they can in a hot issue whenever they get the chance, and gently caress the brokers 30 day 'suggested' waiting period to sell.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Some informative commentary about FB from GBS

quote:

Oh, I misunderstood market cap. I didn't need to multiply in the price per share.

let's run 'em again. Let's assume microsoft has 3billion active users, google has 3 billion active users, facebook has 3 billion active users, and amazon has 100 million active users (probably a better estimate... I have no idea).

With a market cap of 250.18 Bil, assuming 3 billion active users, Microsoft is worth $84 per user - about half the cost of their most ubiquitous product.

With a market cap of 98.3 billion, divided by 100k users, you'd find Amazon to be worth about 983 bucks per active user.

With a market cap of 200.62, with the assumption of 3 billion active users, Google works out to about $67 dollars per active user.

And with a market cap of 72.12 billion, assuming facebook were used by half the people on earth, they'd have a ratio of 24 dollars per active user.

I think you'll find this ratio is significant in valuing an online stock. Additional factors include the means of modifying, the average affluence of their active user, and - of course - the size of their user base (and changes to the size of their userbase effect how profitable they are, because of economies of scale).

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

Doghouse posted:

Can anyone recommend some extremely basic info on how stocks and stock trading work? Internet articles or books both would work. I am talking "for dummies" level - I am curious about it, but I want something that doesn't assume I know anything. I don't even understand what the concept of a stock is and why they exist. I would also like to know exactly how online trading works at the most basic level - how easy and quick are the transactions, etc.

This book will give you a basic intro 101 to markets.

Believe it or not, there is a Dummies book. I haven't read it, so I don't know if it's any good or not.

As far as online stuff goes, Investopedia is a pretty good starting place.

agarjogger
May 16, 2011
So are share prices connected to earnings or not really/sometimes.
Serious question.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

shrike82 posted:

Some informative commentary about FB from GBS

Holy poo poo gently caress this thread going to GBS right now


agarjogger posted:

So are share prices connected to earnings or not really/sometimes.
Serious question.

P/E is just another tool to evaluate a stock. You can also use The P/E to growth to evaluate something in a high growth industry as the P/E might not tell the whole story.

lightpole fucked around with this message at 19:03 on May 21, 2012

Shrinkage
Oct 23, 2010

agarjogger posted:

So are share prices connected to earnings or not really/sometimes.
Serious question.

Sometimes.

Serious answer.

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel

shrike82 posted:

Some informative commentary about FB from GBS

I always thought cash flows were an overrated way of valuing a company to be quite honest. This value/customer method really saves me a lot of time loving around in spreadsheets.

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Doghouse
Oct 22, 2004

I was playing Harvest Moon 64 with this kid who lived on my street and my cows were not doing well and I got so raged up and frustrated that my eyes welled up with tears and my friend was like are you crying dude. Are you crying because of the cows. I didn't understand the feeding mechanic.

Quodio Stotes posted:

(helpful stuff)

saintonan posted:

(helpful stuff)

Thanks, time to hit the books...

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