Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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keyframe: Sep 15, 2007; I have seen things

Read on a Turkish newspaper this morning that the army released a press release saying that after examining the pieces of wreckage, they are %100 sure the Turkish plane that was shot down was not shut down with AA fire from close range like Syria claimed.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 18:12

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 21:26

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Sorry I'm not much of a military hardware enthusiast. What are the alternatives for shooting down a reconnaissance jet of this variety, and are they more 'sinister'?

# ? Jul 13, 2012 18:15

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

More videos of the cluster bomb recovered

# ? Jul 13, 2012 18:19

keyframe: Sep 15, 2007; I have seen things

Sivias posted:

Sorry I'm not much of a military hardware enthusiast. What are the alternatives for shooting down a reconnaissance jet of this variety, and are they more 'sinister'?

The alternative is shooting it down with a rocket and that would not fly with the "oops sorry we could not ID the craft as a Turkish, it was short range AA fire from the ground that shot it down" excuse Syria gave.

Apparently they are salvaging the bigger parts of the plane now and will give a more definitive statement later.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 18:22

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Brown Moses posted:

More videos of the cluster bomb recovered

Nice find. Also, my youtube feed went from awesome, light-hearted videos to dozens of videos of death and destruction after your youtube link post.

How is something like that recovered? Did it just fail to explode?

# ? Jul 13, 2012 18:23

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

What's interesting is according to Janes that bomb casing should carry 150 of those bomblets, and they only show around 20, so it's possible the remaining 130 exploded. It's also possibly they realised that pick up unexploded cluster bombs is really dumb and didn't put it up the rest. According to experts I've spoken to it's possible the fuse was set incorrectly and it just crashed into the ground.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 19:03

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303644004577523251596963194.html

Syria's possibly mobilizing chemical weapons for use. If these end up actually being used, it will be hard to stop an international war.

quote:

Syria has begun moving parts of its vast arsenal of chemical weapons out of storage facilities, U.S. officials said, in a development that has alarmed many in Washington.

The country's undeclared stockpiles of sarin nerve agent, mustard gas and cyanide have long worried U.S. officials and their allies in the region, who have watched anxiously amid the conflict in Syria for any change in the status or location of the weapons.

American officials are divided on the meaning of the latest moves by members of President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Some U.S. officials fear Damascus intends to use the weapons against the rebels or civilians, potentially as part of a targeted ethnic cleansing campaign. But other officials said Mr. Assad may be trying to safeguard the material from his opponents or to complicate Western powers' efforts to track the weapons.

Some said that Mr. Assad may not intend to use the weapons, but instead may be moving them as a feint, hoping the threat of a chemical attack could drive Sunnis thought to be sympathetic to the rebels from their homes.

Whatever the motivation, the evidence that the chemical weapons are coming into play could escalate the conflict in Syria, some fear. "This could set the precedent of WMD [weapons of mass destruction] being used under our watch," one U.S. official said. "This is incredibly dangerous to our national security."

The Obama administration has begun to hold classified briefings about the new intelligence. U.S. officials are particularly worried about Syria's stocks of sarin gas, the deadly and versatile nerve agent. The officials wouldn't say where weapons have been moved.

The new intelligence comes as the U.S. and its allies step up pressure on Russia to join an international drive to dislodge Mr. Assad from power. But the new information could cut both ways, officials said: It could bolster calls for international action to remove Mr. Assad, but also underline the risks of intervening against a military armed with weapons of mass destruction.

"This shows how complex this is," a second official briefed on the matter said.

The Syrian government denied the chemical stockpiles have been moved.

"This is absolutely ridiculous and untrue," said Syria's foreign ministry spokesman, Jihad Makdissi. "If the U.S. is so well-informed, why can't they help [U.N. envoy] Kofi Annan in stopping the flow of illegal weapons to Syria in order to end the violence and move towards the political solution?"

The White House, the Central Intelligence Agency and the Pentagon declined to comment.
...

# ? Jul 13, 2012 19:05

unlimited shrimp: Aug 30, 2008

Isn't it more likely they're being moved to keep them out of rebel hands or somesuch?

# ? Jul 13, 2012 19:22

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

It's definitely possible. The articel doesn't say, but it depends where they were moved from and to. If they were already in Damascus and being moved elsewhere, especially near Homs, Idlib, or Hama, that would point to towards a willingness to use the weapons. Moving them to Latakia or Damascus from elsewhere makes keeping the weapons away from the FSA or less loyal soldiers more likely.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 19:25

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Okay, now a Pentagon source is telling Fox they are being moved to Homs. That makes it very unlikely it's to safeguard them.

http://news.sky.com/story/959953/syria-military-moves-chemical-weapons-to-homs

quote:

Intelligence has emerged suggesting the Syrian regime has moved chemical weapons to the Homs region, a source has told Sky News.

A senior British intelligence questioned about claims in the US that several streams of signal intelligence detailing the transfer of a chemcial agent said he believed the account to be a "pretty accurate description" of what the UK believes is going on.

Fox News reported a senior US defence source as saying it was not clear wether the movement of the agent, possibly Sarin nerve gas, had been authorised by President Bashar al Assad or local Syrian military commanders frustrated by the ongoing uprising in Homs.

The agents, which may not yet have been weaponised, were moved from previously known stockpile locations, the report said.

Recent investigations by Sky News identified four sites where chemical agents are produced: Hama, Latakia, Al Safira, near Aleppo and at the Centre D'Etude et Recherche Scientifique laboratories in Damascus.

Storage sites were also found at Khan abu Shamat, Furqlus, Hama, Masyaf, Palmyra.

The US source was quoted as saying the Pentagon is particularly worried because sarin can be used and released in canisters so there may not be weapons per se involved.

Also sarin does not remain in the air after an attack so a lot of people could die and the regime would have "plausible deniability" that it had used a chemical agent, the source added.

According to Middle Eastern and other intelligence sources, Syria has the biggest stockpiles of Sarin and VX nerve gas, as well as mustard gas, in the Middle East.

Sir Mark Lyall Grant, the UK Ambassador to the UN, told Sky News he was unable to confirm the reports.

But he added: "Clearly if there was an suggestion the Syrian regime might start using chemical weapons that would escalate things to a whole other level."

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:09

Golbez: Oct 9, 2002; 1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

If they use chemical weapons against their own citizens and we can prove it... yeah, hell will break loose. The Russians could no longer support them; even the Chinese might bow out. The UN would get very harsh. And if any of that leaked into Turkey or Israel, you've suddenly got a regional war going on. Especially if it's Turkey and NATO article 5 gets invoked (unlikely, but on the other hand, what if these weapons get lobbed into an FSA base within Turkish borders?)

However, unlike all of the other scenarios, it would be a united effort. We wouldn't have the security council bickering at each other, we wouldn't have Turkey just doing a defensive move, and we wouldn't have all these fears of attacking the Syrian hedgehog. It would be a total effort.

In the end, perhaps Assad gassing his people is the avenue to the swiftest resolution of this war.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:21

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

God I hope not. Chemical weapons would be the crowning atrocity upon an already tremendous pile of tragedies.

Oh Syria :smith:

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:29

Mc Do Well: Aug 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

Golbez posted:

If they use chemical weapons against their own citizens and we can prove it... yeah, hell will break loose. The Russians could no longer support them; even the Chinese might bow out. The UN would get very harsh. And if any of that leaked into Turkey or Israel, you've suddenly got a regional war going on. Especially if it's Turkey and NATO article 5 gets invoked (unlikely, but on the other hand, what if these weapons get lobbed into an FSA base within Turkish borders?)

However, unlike all of the other scenarios, it would be a united effort. We wouldn't have the security council bickering at each other, we wouldn't have Turkey just doing a defensive move, and we wouldn't have all these fears of attacking the Syrian hedgehog. It would be a total effort.

In the end, perhaps Assad gassing his people is the avenue to the swiftest resolution of this war.

Or Russia and China wouldn't back down and we'll have World War 3

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:30

Golbez: Oct 9, 2002; 1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

CNN's lead article is about Assad, and contains this:

quote:

Money is the main reason to believe that al-Assad's regime cannot last. Inflation is said to be as high as 30%. According to some reports, al-Assad and his cronies are freely printing money; the Syrian pound has depreciated against the dollar by more than half on the black market. Meanwhile, the regime is running out of cash. Ninety percent of Syria�s oil used to go to the European Union, but sanctions have put a stop to that. Tourism and trade have of course plummeted. And monetary support from Iran cannot be counted on indefinitely � Tehran itself is buckling under unprecedented sanctions.

This makes me think. Usually it seems that sanctions don't remotely harm a regime; see Cuba and North Korea. But, in combination with an active struggle, they can do massive damage, as the regime suddenly cannot afford to fight its population anymore.

McDowell posted:

Or Russia and China wouldn't back down and we'll have World War 3

China wouldn't get involved. Russia... I don't think Putin's remotely that stupid.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:37

Valley Troll: Jun 19, 2012

Just when you thought journalistic standards in the coverage of Syria couldn't get any worse, Der Spiegel now claims to be able to identify your religion by your hairdo.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/massaker-von-tremseh-der-konflikt-in-syrien-wird-zum-konfessionskrieg-a-844221.html

modified Google Translate posted:

At the roadside they stand and cheer the Syrian army. "They come from Tremseh," shouts one. The soldiers honk, the audience at the roadside claps for the passing soldiers. The text to the YouTube video it says that it is of Syrians from a neighboring village of Tremseh. Once a young woman appears with light hair and a ponytail in the picture, another time a woman with black hair and a ponytail.

In the rural regions of the country it is unusual that Sunni women wear their hair uncovered. It suggests that this neighboring village is not Sunni-dominated, but inhabited by another of Syria's minority faiths - probably the Alawites, to which Assad and most of the security apparatus belong. The Syrian soldiers in the video seem seem to be consciously sectarian in their motivation.

Der Spiegel posted:

Am Stra�enrand stehen Syrer und jubeln der Armee zu. "Sie kommen aus Tremseh!", ruft einer. Die Milit�rs hupen, die Zuschauer am Stra�enrand klatschen sich mit den vorbeifahrenden Soldaten ab. Im Text zum YouTube-Video hei�t es, dass es sich dabei um Syrer aus einem Nachbardorf von Tremseh handelt. Einmal erscheint eine junge Frau mit hellen Haaren und Pferdeschwanz im Bild, ein weiteres Mal eine Frau mit schwarzen Haaren und Pferdeschwanz.

In den l�ndlichen Regionen Syriens ist es un�blich, dass sunnitische Frauen ihr Haar unbedeckt tragen. Es legt den Schluss nahe, dass dieses Nachbardorf nicht sunnitisch gepr�gt ist, sondern die Bewohner Teil einer der Minderheitskonfessionen Syriens sind - vermutlich den Alawiten, zu denen auch Assad und ein Gro�teil des Sicherheitsapparats geh�ren. Die syrischen Soldaten in dem Video scheinen also bewusst konfessionell motiviert zu handeln.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:41

Mc Do Well: Aug 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

Golbez posted:

China wouldn't get involved. Russia... I don't think Putin's remotely that stupid.

Russia has warships in the area and I'm gonna say the missile test was a warning against a Libya Style NATO Operation in Putin's backyard.

If WMDs start flying around things get scary fast.

There's been a bit more buzz around China's South sea claims. If things get bad enough they might make a play.

It's a very pessimistic scenario.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:44

Golbez: Oct 9, 2002; 1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

McDowell posted:

Russia has warships in the area and I'm gonna say the missile test was a warning against a Libya Style NATO Operation in Putin's backyard.

If WMDs start flying around things get scary fast.

There's been a bit more buzz around China's South sea claims. If things get bad enough they might make a play.

It's a very pessimistic scenario.

You think China would go to war over Syria as a proxy/tryout for the South China Sea and maybe Taiwan?

The Russians were rattling their sabres, sure, but even they can't defend a chemical attack. I think if WMDs start flying around they will cut their losses and get out of Tartus. Because, really, there's only two options right now: Assad stays and Russia keeps Tartus, or Assad leaves and Russia loses Tartus. The second outcome becomes inevitable once he breaks the seal on that gas, so they have zero reason to remain involved at that point.

Basically, once Assad uses gas, he ceases being a strategic partner for Russia. They might grumble, but they won't materially interfere anymore.

You had a good run, tovarasi, but the Mediterranean is lost to you.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:50

Valley Troll: Jun 19, 2012

This is a few days old but I didn't see it posted earlier. Video from RT, a Jordanian MP throws a shoe at, and then pulls a gun on an activist during a live TV "debate" about Syria.

http://www.rt.com/news/jordanian-gun-live-tv-649/

quote:

A Jordanian MP pointed a gun at a political activist during a heated debate on the country�s political stance on Syria. The action, which included shoe throwing, was broadcast live on Jordanian TV.

Member of parliament Mohammed Shawabka was debating political activist Mansour Sayf al-Din Murad during a live broadcast on Jordanian Jo Sat TV.

The discussion heated up after the politician claimed that Murad was promoting the Syrian regime�s agenda, alleging that he was on its payroll. In his turn, the activist accused Shawabka of working for the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency.
The show's host desperately tried to put the situation under control, telling both men to calm down. Instead of calming down, though, the politician bent down, pulled off his shoe and threw it at his opponent.

Murad managed to dodge the projectile, so Shawabka decided to try his luck with a gun. The MP pulled out a silver revolver and briefly pointed it at his opponent.
The opponents then locked into close combat while the host tried to separate them. The struggle continued for some time before the broadcast was cut.

It's been parodied by the Jordanian/Egyptian animation studio Kharabeesh:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkUWU6Lalr4&feature=plcp

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jEcJjJXDJc&feature=plcp

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:54

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

keyframe posted:

The alternative is shooting it down with a rocket and that would not fly with the "oops sorry we could not ID the craft as a Turkish, it was short range AA fire from the ground that shot it down" excuse Syria gave.

The other alternative is an aircraft interception but I'm fairly certain that's been ruled out.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:55

az jan jananam: Sep 6, 2011; HI, I'M HARDCORE SAX HERE TO DROP A NICE JUICY TURD OF A POST FROM UP ON HIGH

I doubt Putin really cares that much about Tartous. The issue is probably related to personality and pride more than realpolitik allows to admit.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:55

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

quote:

Just when you thought journalistic standards in the coverage of Syria couldn't get any worse, Der Spiegel now claims to be able to identify your religion by your hairdo.

Well, Alawis are a lot less likely to wear the hijab, but yeah I would not use that to anchor an analysis of sectarian trends in rural Syria.

Your name and the village your family is from is another thing a lot of people use to identify sect, but it's also not a guarantee.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:59

Mc Do Well: Aug 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

az jan jananam posted:

I doubt Putin really cares that much about Tartous. The issue is probably related to personality and pride more than realpolitik allows to admit.

Yeah I'm not as certain as Golbez that Russia will leave with its tail between its legs. They haven't asserted themselves in awhile, and states are not rational actors.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:01

Golbez: Oct 9, 2002; 1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

McDowell posted:

Yeah I'm not as certain as Golbez that Russia will leave with its tail between its legs. They haven't asserted themselves in awhile, and states are not rational actors.

Attack NATO troops to defend someone who used WMDs on his own people? Even Russia's press isn't censored enough to let that get by their people, is it?

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:02

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

az jan jananam posted:

I doubt Putin really cares that much about Tartous. The issue is probably related to personality and pride more than realpolitik allows to admit.

Russia has more horses in this race than is usually appreciated. Relations with Iran, for example. Russia's influence in the region and also globally depends on showing that they have a hold over US foreign policy and are a dependable ally.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:09

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

McDowell posted:

Yeah I'm not as certain as Golbez that Russia will leave with its tail between its legs. They haven't asserted themselves in awhile, and states are not rational actors.

"Terrorists use chemical weapons smuggled into Syria in Homs. Soft U.S. stance on illegal weapons entering the country to blame. Assad devastated."

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:09

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Here's a question I've got ask: if Assad went all Fuhrerbunker and died, either by his hand or a palace coup, what happens next? Tlass and the FSA come in and take over? What happens with Tartous? After being bombed by Russian-made cluster bombs, from Russian-made helicopters, and flown by Russian-trained pilots, what's the new government's outlook on Russia?

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:10

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhHzTymiGJw

UN observers made it to Tremseh.

quote:

Here's a question I've got ask: if Assad went all Fuhrerbunker and died, either by his hand or a palace coup, what happens next? Tlass and the FSA come in and take over?

There'll be someone waiting in the wings to take over from Assad that will try to stay in power.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:15

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

His brother probably has more to do with what's happening at the moment than anyone.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:51

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Egyyptian Journalist Dies on Live TV While Defending Syrian Regime

quote:

We won't call it cosmic justice but it does make you wonder: On Wednesday, an Egyptian journalist died on live TV while defending Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The bizarre moment occurred on an Iraqi TV station during a heated on-air phone debate between the Egyptian 56-year-old, Adel Al-Gogary, and Brigadier-General Hossama, a member of the Free Syrian Army, who Al-Gogari called a "fugitive soldier" and a paid mercenary for Israel shortly before he died. According to the UAE's daily newspaper al-Bayan, he suffered from a blood clot Wednesday night and was pronounced dead on arrival at a hospital in Cairo.

It's the sort of situation where sympathies are due for the late journalist's family, who are receiving condolences today in his birthplace city Abu-Suweir. Still, it's hard to pick a worse time to be an Assad defender, as allegations build that his cronies just carried out the worst massacre yet in the 16-month conflict, resulting in the deaths of more than 200 men, women and children near Hama. According to the Pakistani newspaper The News Tribe, al-Gogary wasn't expressing an errant opinion. "Al-Gogari recently appeared on Al-Jazeera Arabic�s controversial programme 'The Opposite Direction', where he vehemently defended the Syrian regime, claiming that what is happening in the war-torn country is 'an international conspiracy' against Al-Assad." The above photo is taken from a previous interview. (Clips of the incident, which occurred on Iraq's al-Hadath private station, don't appear to be circulating on the web).

Allahu akbar

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:55

SexyBlindfold: Apr 24, 2008; i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!

Deteriorata posted:

Egyyptian Journalist Dies on Live TV While Defending Syrian Regime

Allahu akbar

excuse me, in this thread we do not support the use of zionist long-rage nanobot assassination devices :colbert:

# ? Jul 13, 2012 22:18

Evil Fluffy: Jul 13, 2009; Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.

McDowell posted:

Or Russia and China wouldn't back down and we'll have World War 3

There won't be a World War 3 because none of those 3 countries are huge fans of being on either side of nuclear MAD. No country can defend against the others' nuclear arsenals and each of the countries have more than enough firepower to make sure that MAD happens if it needs to.

Putin plays the "I'm a badass" role well enough but he's not going to risk his country over a country like Syria. He's also busy enough returning to the ~~good~~ old days of Stalinism and those protests don't suppress themselves.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 22:26

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Evil Fluffy posted:

There won't be a World War 3 because...

How's the old saying go?
World War II occurred because no one thought it could.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 22:34

dundun: Oct 29, 2005; H E R B

Sivias posted:

How's the old saying go?
World War II occurred because no one thought it could.

Yeah but seriously, thats extremely unrealistic. Even though China and Russia look pretty bad, they aren't going to jeopardize their BRIC status over a country like Syria.

At the same time, I feel like even if Syria used chemical weapons on their own people, would the international community even care that much? Considering the massacre has been ongoing for over a year now and nothing has been done, I think with the current elections no one is really paying attention.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 23:00

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

NOW Lebanon has an exclusive eye witness report from Treimsa which seems to indicate cluster munitions were used

quote:

�It was the first time we see helicopters of the like, they were really big and looked like Apaches. They would fire rockets that were capable of setting rocks on fire. They were throwing bombs which would divide into another 20 as it hit the ground. There were around five planes flying over us, they killed 10 families near the Assi river bank, they were all burnt to death, among which were 18 women and 15 children,� he added.

I'm also getting the best Twitter followers since my cluster bomb stuff

She only follows 554 people.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 23:24

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

dundun posted:

Yeah but seriously, thats extremely unrealistic. Even though China and Russia look pretty bad, they aren't going to jeopardize their BRIC status over a country like Syria.

At the same time, I feel like even if Syria used chemical weapons on their own people, would the international community even care that much? Considering the massacre has been ongoing for over a year now and nothing has been done, I think with the current elections no one is really paying attention.

I really wonder if Russian relations are all that's keeping the US from intervening a la Libya. Using air power to restrict the movement of regime forces and their ability to use artillery and armor, or is the makeup of regime forces significantly different from Libya?

# ? Jul 13, 2012 23:24

sum: Nov 15, 2010

Golbez posted:

You think China would go to war over Syria as a proxy/tryout for the South China Sea and maybe Taiwan?

The Russians were rattling their sabres, sure, but even they can't defend a chemical attack. I think if WMDs start flying around they will cut their losses and get out of Tartus. Because, really, there's only two options right now: Assad stays and Russia keeps Tartus, or Assad leaves and Russia loses Tartus. The second outcome becomes inevitable once he breaks the seal on that gas, so they have zero reason to remain involved at that point.

Basically, once Assad uses gas, he ceases being a strategic partner for Russia. They might grumble, but they won't materially interfere anymore.

You had a good run, tovarasi, but the Mediterranean is lost to you.

What? Sure they could defend a gas attack, it would be very easy in fact. Violating 'international law' is meaningless, especially when you have two superpowers defending you and you've been actively violating many other 'laws' in the past. Assad could massacre Sunnis with poison gas or he could massacre them with bullets and bombs, and neither would change Syria's strategic value to the SCO.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 23:28

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Sounds like Russia is letting off the gas a little bit. Wonder how much the chemical weapons moving to Homs played into this. They could be switching from denial to damage control.

quote:

"Russia, as well as other countries, is concerned by the situation in Syria," said Vyacheslav Dzirkaln, deputy head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, RIA Novosti reported. "We are not talking about new arms supplies to that country."

"Until the situation stabilizes we will not deliver any new weapons (to Syria)," said Dzirkaln.

http://us.cnn.com/2012/07/09/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?iref=obinsite

Finally some positive news.

# ? Jul 14, 2012 00:05

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

Sivias posted:

How's the old saying go?
World War II occurred because no one thought it could.

Except everyone spend most of the 30's scrambling to prepare for the next European war.

As Nenonen said, Russia's playing a game of backing the regime they backed because their influence is based off being able to neuter US power. It's a purely pragmatic position and they'll play the diplomatic game right to the hilt, but nobody's going to get into a shooting war over Syria.

As for China, their position is extremely simple: they'll never support anything in the UN which supports the idea of intervention in a country's internal politics, nor of its right to territorial integrity.

# ? Jul 14, 2012 00:29

Medieval Medic: Sep 8, 2011

I am curious, everyone is talking about Russia either supporting Assad to the end or pulling out with their tails between their legs, but isn't it more likely they would just pay off some of Assad's cronies for an assasination if things got really out of hand, before any other country got involved?

# ? Jul 14, 2012 00:57

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 21:26

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Alchenar posted:

Except everyone spend most of the 30's scrambling to prepare for the next European war.

The US is setting up a military base in northern Australia. Turkey has deployed forces along the Syrian boarder. Jordan and neighboring countries are participating in large scale military games. Russia and Iran are strategically positioning warships in the Mediterranean and Strait of Hormuz, respectively.

I'm not saying this is anywhere near the scale of the buildup of WW2 or that it will, but the idea of small conflicts conflagrating into a larger crisis is not unheard of.

# ? Jul 14, 2012 00:58

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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