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As far as I know, only China and S. Korea have media and schools promoting anti-Japanese views to this day. The anti-Japanese rage in the rest of Asia died out over a generation ago. Everyone else in the region is very pro-Japan. Also consider that China has territorial issues with half of ASEAN and they will all fall in line behind Japan if China pushes hard enough.
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Sep 17, 2012 04:42
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There is a difference between the leftover hatred and active reinforcement. Here in Korea several of the English books that sixth graders use now include a chapter about Dokdo (another worthless rock to fight over, though it's even stupider since the issue is almost entirely in Korea's head, literally no one supports Japanese claims and I've never met a Japanese person who has even heard of the island) in order to keep that poo poo well-stirred. Korean kids almost all hate Japan and the Japanese but I've yet to meet anyone who can articulate a reason for it. What's going on in China makes it tame in comparison. Here a guy drove his truck into the Japanese embassy gate and another guy set himself on fire, but that's about it lately.
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Sep 17, 2012 04:42
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Sep 17, 2012 04:54
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PrezCamachoo posted:
The loyalties of ASEAN countries are based on who is the highest bidder at the time and is willing to offer the most economic incentives.
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Sep 17, 2012 04:54
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Modus Operandi posted:The loyalties of ASEAN countries are based on who is the highest bidder at the time and is willing to offer the most economic incentives. Some countries in ASEAN without territorial disputes (looking at Burma, Cambodia and Laos here) will of course be bought off by China but Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and the rest will all fall in line behind Japan against Chinese aggression.
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Sep 17, 2012 04:59
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sincx posted:http://news.yahoo.com/u-believes-japan-u-security-treaty-covers-disputed-031746983.html The US has said multiple times that they take no position on the final sovereignty of the islands (ie. Japan and China have to talk it out). However they also said that because they are currently "administered" by Japan - they are indeed covered by the defense treaty with Japan. So if China attacks Japan to take the islands - it's on.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:07
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PrezCamachoo posted:Some countries in ASEAN without territorial disputes (looking at Burma, Cambodia and Laos here) will of course be bought off by China but Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and the rest will all fall in line behind Japan against Chinese aggression. The territorial disputes themselves are a bit of a red herring in some ways for these smaller countries. If you're a small potato looking to wrangle the best deal between various major world powers then you'll play whatever card you got. I'm sure nationalistic concerns is hyped for the public but behind the scenes it's all about economic priorities. The leaders (industrialists) of all those countries you mentioned are more or less kleptocrats. That makes them realists to some extent. They aren't going to war over some lovely sea rocks because war doesn't bring money to their offshore accounts but they will certainly play it up to get some kind of deal out of it long term.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:08
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Modus Operandi posted:Do you honestly believe the Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei are not motivated by economic self interest and broader geopolitical concerns? Vietnam has shown itself to be a pretty savvy player the import/export economic stats are pretty revealing. They play three sides (the U.S., Russia, and China) frequently. Something tells me you don't follow Vietnam-China news involving the South China Sea claims. PrezCamachoo fucked around with this message at 05:20 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 05:16
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Sep 17, 2012 05:19
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PrezCamachoo posted:Something tells me you don't follow Vietnam-China news involving the South China Sea claims. It's a bargaining chip. I live in the SEA region and follow the news everyday. You just have to understand how ASEAN countries operate. Very little of it is based on some kind of nationalistic ideology. It's all $. That may be how it's portrayed to the dull witted citizenry but not how it's played out in the back rooms. If you believe there's going to be some kind of super ASEAN alliance + Japan fighting China sometime soon then you are hilariously mistaken.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:19
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All of these countries are looking for partners to bulk up their position against China. Every single country in the region is particularly interested in increasing military ties with the US and many have gone through with this. Japan is just another country they can join up with to take a stance against an increasingly aggressive China. Maybe in the far future China will just be so drat powerful they will all fold to the pressure but for the time being, they will all fall behind Japan.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:21
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Even Korea is taking baby steps towards closer ties with Japan because of the threat (real or perceived) from China. People I've talked to here aren't too scared of being attacked by China, but they are afraid of China becoming powerful enough to completely dominate East Asia. If the choice is between becoming a Chinese colony or being in a roughly equal partnership with Japan, with the US backing it up, they'd rather do that. The people I know are somewhat more progressive than your average Korean but even most of them hate Japan.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:33
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Here's an example of the negotiating doublespeak used when ASEAN countries cut deals with the big boys http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...terman-cam-ranh quote:Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang, who was in Russia and was to meet Putin on Friday, was quoted as telling a Russian radio station that Vietnam has "no intention of cooperating with any country with the aim of military use of the port of Cam Ranh". Hey guys we aren't open to be a port for anyone officially and since you are a very special friend (for a nominal fee) we'll be happy to assist in developing military cooperation (as an unofficial port.) Vietnam was also talking with China (as the sea rocks disputes were going on) to increase business ties. They were also talking with Russia about extending naval agreements and arms trade simultaneously while talking with the U.S. about a naval port and increased arms trade.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:34
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And when I say that they will fall behind Japan I mean they will offer their moral and diplomatic support. I don't mean to imply they will go to war with China or anything like that. You can already see many ASEAN countries taking a more united diplomatic stance against China as well as increasing their ties with the US military in order to back all that up with real power. It isn't a big leap to bring Japan into that type of thinking.
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Sep 17, 2012 05:36
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A lot of people who say that things won't escalate are not taking into account that any lack of a win by China is a loss. The legal status of the Senkaku islands is essentially unchanged since they were returned to Japan in the 1970s, and if you don't consider the US 'occupation' of the islands (we used them as a target but never had troops there) then nothing has essentially changed since the Japanese lodged their claim in 1895. China is making a big stink about this, but if nothing happens to change the status quo, if China doesn't get a 'win' out of this and in a week or a month the protests die down without any gain against the Japanese, they will have lost substantially. China will have been saying essentially, 'We will make a big stink but we won't do anything about it, we're all bark and no bite'. That's not good for Chinese prestige or Chinese face, which is what this is about for the Chinese people, even if the government is more realpolitik about it. China got into a standoff like this with Vietnam in the 70s and they ended up invading, and have maintained troops on the islands since then. I'm going to make my bet that this won't end without the Chinese having seized the islands. Status quo is a loss for China, and China isn't going to take a loss.
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Sep 17, 2012 06:36
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Fall Sick and Die posted:A lot of people who say that things won't escalate are not taking into account that any lack of a win by China is a loss. The legal status of the Senkaku islands is essentially unchanged since they were returned to Japan in the 1970s, and if you don't consider the US 'occupation' of the islands (we used them as a target but never had troops there) then nothing has essentially changed since the Japanese lodged their claim in 1895. China is making a big stink about this, but if nothing happens to change the status quo, if China doesn't get a 'win' out of this and in a week or a month the protests die down without any gain against the Japanese, they will have lost substantially. China will have been saying essentially, 'We will make a big stink but we won't do anything about it, we're all bark and no bite'. That's not good for Chinese prestige or Chinese face, which is what this is about for the Chinese people, even if the government is more realpolitik about it. China got into a standoff like this with Vietnam in the 70s and they ended up invading, and have maintained troops on the islands since then. I'm going to make my bet that this won't end without the Chinese having seized the islands. Status quo is a loss for China, and China isn't going to take a loss. China might be hoping that with enough bluster, they can get the Japanese government to capitulate again. Though, since this isn't an illegal fishing boat and crew it may not play out that way.
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Sep 17, 2012 07:07
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ocrumsprug posted:China might be hoping that with enough bluster, they can get the Japanese government to capitulate again. I find it hard to believe that any of the decision-makers in China think this is a realistic possibility.
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Sep 17, 2012 07:17
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Fall Sick and Die posted:I'm going to make my bet that this won't end without the Chinese having seized the islands. Status quo is a loss for China, and China isn't going to take a loss. Care to put your money where your mouth is? A new avatar says that this will end without any seizure by force. There may be a bit of bump and grind on the briny sea and I would certainly expect some kind of blockade but nothing invasive. China has pissed off enough of South East Asia to make its strategic situation quite precarious. If it takes over these islands then the ASEAN nations are going to scream blue murder because they know they are next. Now I am not sure what would happen then, but if I was a Chinese general I Too many unknowns, too many possibilities and too much up-fuckery on the horizon in other words. Take my bet tough guy? GuestBob fucked around with this message at 07:38 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 07:27
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^ Haha sorry all I'm willing to put up on this is my e-cred. But what would they be blockading? Blockade some rocks? No one brings supplies or anything to the islands... no one lives there. Let China blockade it, still doesn't change the situation... Why would Japan just give the islands to China? Like what benefit would it be for them to do so, no matter how much pressure China puts on them? If China attacks Japan over these islands or far more likely lands some troops on the islands in the night, both Japan's military and the support of the US, if not militarily at least diplomatically, will make China out to be a ridiculous aggressor, and there's no way the Chinese air force/navy are capable of holding the islands if the US and Japan decide to reclaim them. What other pressure can China put on Japan? Stop trading with Japan? Watch China get ejected from the WTO, there are already enough nations annoyed with Chinese state subsidies and the like, which would be a major loss for Chinese prestige as they attached so much importance on joining it. Not that this is going to happen because they know it would be impossible. China has been brought into the international system over the past 30 years and now they're stuck with it. When countries break out as major world players, it's generally done by attacking other nations, forcing them to your will, or getting other countries to accept your new status. Japan vs China, followed by the Russo-Japanese war. Germany's attempts to build a German-dominated Europe. America vs Spain. Sometimes the rising power wins. And sometimes the rising power gets beat down by the established powers. The times when the rising power generally gets accepted is if OTHER great powers accept their rise as valid and refuse to interfere with the new status. The USA was able to win the war and take Spanish colonies because the UK didn't intervene. Japan was able to take Russia's concessions in China because no one else was interested in stopping them. Compare this with today. China is seeking to show its status as top dog in Asia. They have the economic muscle, but they lack the military (force projection capability) and diplomatic might to back it up. Literally everyone, including the Chinese themselves, see Chinese international politics as entirely self-serving. China will never be a light to other nations because they don't want to be and really don't understand that people like Americans actually see themselves as 'good guys' for the most part. This is important to contrast to nations like the UK, the US and the Soviet Union. British liberalism of the 19th century variety was an attractive ideology, even to many colonized peoples in India/Africa. American democracy, Soviet communism as an alternate path to modernity. What do the Chinese offer? Their entire ideology is rabid Chinese nationalism. Who is going to be enticed by that? Who wants to work with a nation whose diplomatic mantra is, "You repress your people and we'll repress ours." There's a reason China's best friends are lovely dictatorships, and there's also a reason that Chinese 'friends' abandon them as soon as the government that they bought a 400 million dollar soccer stadium for gets overthrown/outvoted. Their entire diplomacy is short-sighted and built around the idea that other countries will mind their own business, because that's what *they* want, they being the government. Japan may have set the ball rolling when its far-right attempted to develop the Senkaku islands, but China has rejected the Japanese government's attempt to maintain the status quo and forced the issue. There is no reason for Japan to do anything but wait. The ball is in China's court, there are 10 seconds left on the clock, and Japan is up by 2 points. If China just holds the ball, Japan wins. The only thing they can do is try for a three-pointer (seize the islands and establish a defensible position before anyone can kick them off). No amount of threats or bluster from the Chinese will work because apart from military action, there is nothing they can do to force a win out of this situation. The interesting question is, did the guys upstairs in China's military know that this was the case and force the issue to ensure that they can try to take the islands? They may very well believe they have the capability and willpower to take them, but then generally people don't fight a war they don't think they can win, and that's on both sides. Fall Sick and Die fucked around with this message at 08:09 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 08:04
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Japan is going to come out on top here and China is just going to have to deal with it. There's no way in hell China is going to militarily attack Japan. I bet the Chinese military leadership values Japan as a pacifist antiwar state more than it values controlling these boring rocks in the middle of the ocean. The moment the Chinese navy opens up on the Japanese navy you can kiss Japan's 60+ years of pacifism goodbye.
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Sep 17, 2012 08:32
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That is the ultimate result, isn't it? If China attacked Japan in some way, there could easily be enough support that Article 9 gets revoked. Hell, Japan could be nuclear armed in a few months if they felt the need for it. There's no way they want to deal with that.
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Sep 17, 2012 08:35
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You sir, are a girl! Fall Sick and Die posted:If China attacks Japan over these islands or far more likely lands some troops on the islands in the night, both Japan's military and the support of the US, if not militarily at least diplomatically, will make China out to be a ridiculous aggressor, and there's no way the Chinese air force/navy are capable of holding the islands if the US and Japan decide to reclaim them. What other pressure can China put on Japan? Stop trading with Japan? Watch China get ejected from the WTO, there are already enough nations annoyed with Chinese state subsidies and the like, which would be a major loss for Chinese prestige as they attached so much importance on joining it. Not that this is going to happen because they know it would be impossible. China has been brought into the international system over the past 30 years and now they're stuck with it. I don't really understand why any of this makes military action more likely. China has to try for a three point put-the-island-in-the-basket military play because the alternative is that they would get their wrist slapped for refusing to trade with Japan? In what world is China going to continue trading with Japan whilst it is conducting military action against them? Why is shooting at people going to be more internationally acceptable than having a massive hissy fit? Invading these islands is much worse than any of these options which you have listed. China is going to end up with egg on its face, not because of some Machiavellian scheme gone wrong but because they have a victimhood complex a mile wide which sometimes makes the jade rattle leave the pram. I am not sure why the anti-Japan protests are so batshit this time around, but it makes me worried about the incoming administration's grip on things. The government is never going to be led by the masses, but the leash which they have allowed them on this occasion is a little bit too long - precisley because, as you point out, China is going to be left looking like a right dipshit.
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Sep 17, 2012 08:42
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Military action is the only sphere where China can theoretically defeat Japan. China has no friends diplomatically, no one is going to go to bat for them. Their economic muscle is constrained by the terms of membership in the global economy. They can't just simply say, "Ok, no more trade with Japan" to try to put economic pressure on them in the same sense that the USA put a unilateral oil embargo on Japan before WWII which actually forced Japan to strike before their war machine ran out of gas. Japan isn't overly reliant on Chinese trade in any sense that couldn't be filled by some other portion of the world economy. How can China eke a win out of this? Militarily is the only answer except for the 1984 answer of course where China pretends that it already won... http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/ http://forum.home.news.cn/detail_en.jsp?id=105538430 Patrol Around Diaoyu Islands Successful! "These law enforcement and patrol activities demonstrated China's jurisdiction over the Diaoyu Island and its affiliated islets, achieved the goal of demonstrating China's sovereignty claim and ensured the country's maritime interests." On the Chinese xinhua site they actually say that they 'expelled' Japanese vessels from Chinese territorial waters. From what I've read in non-Chinese sources, it seems like the Chinese ships keep skirting in and out of Japanese water, crossing the border, getting told to leave, then crossing back. Also "U.S. defense chief says won't take sides over Diaoyu, wants peaceful resolution" which is only true in the sense that the US said that we won't take sides in any territorial dispute to which we are not a party, however as the islands are under Japanese control of course we would defend them under the terms of our alliance. I've noticed a lot less vitriol on TV today. A lot more 'Support our Armed Forces!' in the generic sense. I have a feeling they're going to try to spin this as a win, but if the people don't buy it, I can't say what's going to happen. Even in my small city there were big protests and you can see people hanging signs out of their windows about destroying little Japan.
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Sep 17, 2012 09:03
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Chinese maritime service had to bring in their biggest and newest ships too so they don't look too bad being photographed while being chased away by the shiny Japanese coast guard ships. 
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Sep 17, 2012 09:16
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On the note of embargoes. Chinese suppliers have mysteriously run out of rare earth metals for Japanese clients in the past. The fallout for that on China was minimal (in part because official collusion was essentially impossible to prove). As an aside, the fact that after centuries of internecine warfare, religious struggles and more recently the two world wars Europeans are generally all happy and civil with each other these days is one of the few things I think we can be a bit smug about. That was by no means a given. The experience in Europe has also deeply shaped western feelings about what are the appropriate feelings, behaviours and approaches to dealing with deep seated historical grievances are. Unfortunately that seems to clash quite deeply with how the rest of the world processes these things.
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Sep 17, 2012 10:04
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America's also taking a case to the WTO against China for supporting automobile and auto parts manufacturers this week (at least it's been announced this week). This seems like it's timed to coincide with shoring up Michigan, Ohio & friends in the election, but who knows. Anyway, just another poker in the beehive. EDIT: Yes, the same America that owns part of General Motors.
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Sep 17, 2012 10:17
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ReindeerF posted:America's also taking a case to the WTO against China for supporting automobile and auto parts manufacturers this week (at least it's been announced this week). This seems like it's timed to coincide with shoring up Michigan, Ohio & friends in the election, but who knows. Anyway, just another poker in the beehive. State owned enterprises all round! 
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Sep 17, 2012 10:31
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Oh poo poo http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120917x1.html 1,000 Chinese boats headed for Senkakus
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Sep 17, 2012 11:13
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The end result of this is going to be nothing more than status quo ante. China is going to finish up its leadership maneuvering and ease off on the anti-Japanese rhetoric and most Chinese will forget about it because it never really mattered to them. It's not like this is the first time China has rattled its saber. edit: lol what double edit: welp let's hope the Japanese handle this well 
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Sep 17, 2012 11:15
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Oh man this is not going to end well.
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Sep 17, 2012 11:39
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Isn't there going to be a typhoon heading towards that area?
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Sep 17, 2012 11:54
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existential anger posted:Isn't there going to be a typhoon heading towards that area? Would be quite poetic if a chinese fleet, even if its fishing boats this time rather than transport and war ships, is washed away by a typhon on a campaign against Japan once again. Wonder how people would react...
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Sep 17, 2012 12:07
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Japan's new ambassador to China is dead, he 'fainted' outside on his way to work. 1000 Chinese 'fishing boats' on their way to the islands, I would make a reasonable guess that there are a great number of PLA personnel on these ships, special forces, who are prepared to seize the islands. Here's some photos of the fishing fleet setting sail... http://english.caixin.com/2012-09-17/100438780.html  China is sending these ships to force the Japanese to react violently. They're trying to manufacture a casus belli. Send a few ships, the Japanese will arrest the crew. Send 1,000 ships and there's nothing they can do besides fight them off. If they allow the ships to enter the water and start fishing, or land on the islands to establish a beachhead, then China has won, they will never get rid of them without landing troops and engaging in a shooting war.
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Sep 17, 2012 12:51
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Fall Sick and Die posted:
It doesn't count unless it is a recognized military action. It's okay if they are delivered by fishing boat, but if they claim "just to be fishermen" then no dice. Cod War standards here Also, every year there are several dozen (at least) Chinese fishermen caught by the S. Korean coastguard, so I wouldn't expect this to produce a new precedent for something (unless the government wants it to, which it doesn't, because Hu Jintao told me so because he was like totally getting a blowjob from that girl Gu behind the People's Congress but I was like what eva! Everyone knows she is a total slag and was only with Bo for the money or something or nothing anyway my grandad was Kong Zu). GuestBob fucked around with this message at 13:08 on Sep 17, 2012 |
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Sep 17, 2012 13:03
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Last I saw South Korea stops 200+ Chinese fishing boats a year. It's constant, the only time it makes the news is when the Chinese fishermen start stabbing the Coast Guard guys or something.
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Sep 17, 2012 13:04
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Well, this is getting interesting now.
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Sep 17, 2012 13:16
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Ha! If they manage to land a bunch of people then there will finally be something worth blockading on the islands. Seriously though poo poo is all hosed up and bullshit. China! 
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Sep 17, 2012 13:17
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The best way to stop this is to open a temporary brothel with a giant sign on an island slightly closer to China and offer free rice wine and karaoke.
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Sep 17, 2012 13:18
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Arglebargle III posted:Ha! If they manage to land a bunch of people then there will finally be something worth blockading on the islands. I see they are taking a note from the US's big book of invasion. Let normal citizens run off and do their poo poo without official backing. Then claim they have no power to prevent it. When attacked, welp, we gotta defend our citizens. Good stuff.
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Sep 17, 2012 13:20
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Pro-PRC Laowai posted:I see they are taking a note from the US's big book of invasion. Let normal citizens run off and do their poo poo without official backing. Then claim they have no power to prevent it. When attacked, welp, we gotta defend our citizens. Good stuff. The big book of invasions every time every where. You had the same "defend our citizens" stuff from Russia when they invaded Georgia and Britain at various times etc.
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Sep 17, 2012 13:25
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