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gwaaargh
Jul 7, 2010

by XyloJW

mitztronic posted:

This is not news, he has said this multiple times already since the conflict started. I was surprised to see that the UK offered him safe transport and the media hyped it up, when he's clearly said multiple times he has no intention of leaving, ever.

I didn't realise he'd mentioned it before. I rode into the story on DC's offer and assumed this was a new, direct comment. Sorry.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

gimpfarfar posted:

What do you make of Cameron's promise for a renewed Syria effort together with Obama, Brown Moses?
What would have to be their first steps? Do you think they'll try to unify the opposition, or pick a few favourite groups to support? Or focus more on the humanitarian side for now, supporting Turkey's refugee camps and the Red Cross in Syria?
The problem is that at this point because Western involvement has been considered lacking by the various opposition groups they've instead turned to backers who are more Islamist in nature, and in turn have become increasingly Islamist, and in some cases headed towards extremism. The opposition of 2011 isn't the same opposition we now have in 2012, and the West has probably lost it's chance to have real influence on the political and idealogical make up of the opposition.

Really they should focus on the humanitarian side, because they've lost their chance on the military side of things. The whole situation is hosed now, it'll just be a matter of cleaning up the mess once the dust has settled.

Bombadilillo
Feb 28, 2009

The dock really fucks a case or nerfing it.

Brown Moses posted:

The problem is that at this point because Western involvement has been considered lacking by the various opposition groups they've instead turned to backers who are more Islamist in nature, and in turn have become increasingly Islamist, and in some cases headed towards extremism. The opposition of 2011 isn't the same opposition we now have in 2012, and the West has probably lost it's chance to have real influence on the political and idealogical make up of the opposition.

Really they should focus on the humanitarian side, because they've lost their chance on the military side of things. The whole situation is hosed now, it'll just be a matter of cleaning up the mess once the dust has settled.

What, should they have done earlier? Straight military involvment? I know its tricky and I guess Im asking for more of your opinion then a facual x,y and z.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The question is whether military intervention would have brought the conflict to a conclusion that was swift enough to avoid Syrians becoming divided along sectarian lines and nasty poo poo from happening, and with a Libya Style no fly zone I don't think it would have, so that would have meant boots on the ground, which would have attracted Jihadists like flies to poo poo, so there weren't any good options earlier on either. In my opinion all options had a variety of bad outcomes.

mitztronic
Jun 17, 2005

mixcloud.com/mitztronic

gwaaargh posted:

I didn't realise he'd mentioned it before. I rode into the story on DC's offer and assumed this was a new, direct comment. Sorry.

No need to apologize, I wasn't chastising you. Sorry for my poor wording!


In other news, Reuters reporting that Iran fired on a US Drone in international airspace on Nov 1st. The drone returned unharmed.

Here is the news link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/08/us-usa-iran-drone-idUSBRE8A71C520121108

quote:

(Reuters) - Iranian warplanes fired multiple rounds at an unmanned unarmed U.S. surveillance aircraft in international airspace over the Gulf last week, but the craft was undamaged and returned safely to its base, Pentagon spokesman George Little said on Thursday.

President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta were both advised early on about the unprecedented incident, which occurred at about 4:50 a.m. ET (0850 GMT) on November 1.

Iran was later warned through diplomatic channels the United States would keep conducting surveillance flights in the region and would protect its military assets, Little said.

"The United States has communicated to the Iranians that we will continue to conduct surveillance flights over international waters over the Arabian Gulf consistent with longstanding practice and our commitment to the security of the region," Little told a Pentagon briefing.

"We have a wide range of options from diplomatic to military to protect our military assets and our forces ... and will do so when necessary," he added.

<more in article>

Would this have been casus belli if the drone were shot down? I doubt the US would go to war over a single drone, I dont understand war law and international airspace very well.

mitztronic fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Nov 8, 2012

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

mitztronic posted:

Would this have been casus belli if the drone were shot down?

Only if Obama was desperate to start a fight with Iran. The great thing about drones is that no one really gives two shits if one is lost. No blood, no foul.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Zeroisanumber posted:

Only if Obama was desperate to start a fight with Iran. The great thing about drones is that no one really gives two shits if one is lost. No blood, no foul.

Iran cares. They need to drum up the boogeyman of war with the west every so often for their own domestic politics.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

mitztronic posted:

No need to apologize, I wasn't chastising you. Sorry for my poor wording!


In other news, Reuters reporting that Iran fired on a US Drone in international airspace on Nov 1st. The drone returned unharmed.

Here is the news link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/08/us-usa-iran-drone-idUSBRE8A71C520121108


Would this have been casus belli if the drone were shot down? I doubt the US would go to war over a single drone, I dont understand war law and international airspace very well.

I wonder if the drones could fire back if threatened leading to the first drone dogfight.

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

mitztronic posted:

No need to apologize, I wasn't chastising you. Sorry for my poor wording!


In other news, Reuters reporting that Iran fired on a US Drone in international airspace on Nov 1st. The drone returned unharmed.

Here is the news link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/08/us-usa-iran-drone-idUSBRE8A71C520121108


Would this have been casus belli if the drone were shot down? I doubt the US would go to war over a single drone, I dont understand war law and international airspace very well.

Doesn't seem much different than the spy plane China knocked out of the air except it's cheaper and there is no crew. I really don't think it would form casus belli.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

Delta-Wye posted:

Doesn't seem much different than the spy plane China knocked out of the air except it's cheaper and there is no crew. I really don't think it would form casus belli.

I think the difference there is that it was an accident and the spy plane wasn't being fired on.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

If Obama wants to ratchet the tension up a notch he can just have some fighters shadow the drones close enough that any missile directed at it is a threat to them, justifying a truckload of AMRAAMs in response. Iran would likely back down before giving the US a good reason to blow up things they can't afford to replace.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

mitztronic posted:

Would this have been casus belli if the drone were shot down? I doubt the US would go to war over a single drone, I dont understand war law and international airspace very well.

No, especially because no one was at risk of being hurt or killed. No president who isn't already sending tanks to Iran would look at this as a casus belli.

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

visceril posted:

I hope I'm wrong, but it seems like this could keep going through 2013.

It came up during Libya, but it bears repeating here: in the post-WWII world civil wars have tended to last 2-3 years and sometimes longer. It's pretty terrible if it lasts that long, but it's unfortunately not strange if it does.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The ISW has just put together a new map showing the situation in Northern Syria
http://www.understandingwar.org/map/campaign-northern-syria-november-2012

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

This video from Idlib shows a gathering of opposition fighters, there's quite a few of them

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg2pKdFOIes

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






gimpfarfar posted:

Edit: Here's another video I found by a Joseph Holliday at "Institute for the Study of War". Their way to track the opposition and its' attacks seem pretty sophisticated:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lnd3233dXQ

Wow that's an impressive piece of software.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's a great selection of photos from Syria
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2012/11/syria-in-ruins/100402/

Red7
Sep 10, 2008

spankmeister posted:

Wow that's an impressive piece of software.

Its the palantir intelligence platform - its sexy as hell.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
It's great until Evil Incarnate starts using it to control you.

hummingbird hoedown
Sep 23, 2004


IS THAT A STUPID NEWBIE AVATAR? FUCK NO, YOU'RE GETTING A PENTAR

SKILCRAFT KREW Reppin' Quality Blind Made Products

Red7 posted:

Its the palantir intelligence platform - its sexy as hell.

Do you have any experience with it? I would imagine it's incredibly expensive.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Hummer Driving human being posted:

Do you have any experience with it? I would imagine it's incredibly expensive.

It must be, there's not even a buy page on their website, like when you go into one of those really upmarket shops and nothing has a price tag.

MRC48B
Apr 2, 2012

Apparently, you can sign up and take it for a test ride using Public US census data.

Or there's another public demo here:

https://joyride.pfinance.com/welcome/

Bombadilillo
Feb 28, 2009

The dock really fucks a case or nerfing it.

That is impressive software, the name too strikes my nerdy bone. I wonder if this information can be put to more use then just observing the conflict in greater detail.

Red7
Sep 10, 2008

Hummer Driving human being posted:

Do you have any experience with it? I would imagine it's incredibly expensive.

Yeah apart from the free demo its not for the likes of you and me - I was about during a trial run when the company didn't have the penetration it has now and the small number of platforms we had was costing somewhere in the gently caress-off-mosphere. I figured it could have done probably about 50-60% of the grunt work aspect of my job though.

BIG HORNY COW
Apr 11, 2003

Brown Moses posted:

From another area lots of Shilka barrels, plus some mysterious green barrels that no-one I know has been able to ID yet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Earm2ulAnkg

There's actual AZP-23 cannons in some of those crates so the stuff in the barrels are probably more parts for the Shilka. The open one looks like it contains some sort of electronics so possibly spare parts for the Radar / FCS

SilentD
Aug 22, 2012

by toby

Delta-Wye posted:

Doesn't seem much different than the spy plane China knocked out of the air except it's cheaper and there is no crew. I really don't think it would form casus belli.

No, it's much different.

That spy plane wasn't shot at. The Chinese plane was loving with them (flying to close and cutting into the air the needed) and an accident happened. That sort of screw ballery is fairly common among military jets. It's not considered hostile, it's just the two sides loving with each other. We used to do it with the Russians all the drat time and we still do it with the Chinese.

The Iranians shot at the drone. That's hostile and not everyday military rival asshattery.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

SilentD posted:

No, it's much different.

That spy plane wasn't shot at. The Chinese plane was loving with them (flying to close and cutting into the air the needed) and an accident happened. That sort of screw ballery is fairly common among military jets. It's not considered hostile, it's just the two sides loving with each other. We used to do it with the Russians all the drat time and we still do it with the Chinese.

The Iranians shot at the drone. That's hostile and not everyday military rival asshattery.

It was commonly accepted hijinks gone wrong. That's why the situation was resolved with fairly no friction. Both sides knew what goes on in situations like that and they knew it was an accident.

New Division
Jun 23, 2004

I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.
The Iranians claimed they hijacked a US drone over their territory a year or two ago if I recall correctly, although the US claims the drone simply malfunctioned and crashed. It's not the first time the US and Iran have had tensions over drones.

iyaayas01
Feb 19, 2010

Perry'd

New Division posted:

The Iranians claimed they hijacked a US drone over their territory a year or two ago if I recall correctly, although the US claims the drone simply malfunctioned and crashed. It's not the first time the US and Iran have had tensions over drones.

It's be a little more accurate to say that it's not the first time the US and Iran have had tensions regarding U.S. flights over/around their territory, drones are just the platform of choice this time. Every country we've done this to has had issues with it, understandably so.

And here's a detail worth talking about, and one I've only seen mentioned a few places...the fact that it was Su-25s (a ground attack aircraft not particularly well suited to air to air engagements) is significant because only the air arm of the IRCG operates the Frogfoot; the Iranian Air Force does not (incidentally that is almost certainly why the Frogfoot was used, as it is the highest performance aircraft the IRCG air arm possesses). The IRCG is a completely separate military force from the Iranian armed forces, and frankly they are more than a bit nuts. The Iranian armed forces are generally professional, but the IRCG will do completely off the wall, provocative things (like try and shoot down a drone flying in international airspace).

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Just because I find these little side stories interesting, here is a press release issued by an organization called Syrians in the UK to British MPs asking for the UK to step up sanctions against Belarus, because Lukashenko might grant Assad asylum.


http://www.sacbee.com/2012/11/05/4962247/syrian-organization-calls-on-british.html#storylink=cpy

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's a good piece from Alex Crawford of Sky News looking at cluster bombs in Syria, with some interesting footage of DIY weapons used the the opposition as well, Syria: Assad 'Employing Cluster Bombs' In War.

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
http://www.libyaherald.com/2012/11/07/a-second-car-bomb-in-benghazi/

Another car bomb in Benghazi, and apparently it triggered a fight between the military and the police ??

I wish I had more resources on what's happening on the ground In Libya, but without a flareup like the embassy attack it seems everyone's lost interest in the country now that the war porn's over.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/red-cross-syria-crisis.html

The Red Cross just announced they can no longer cope with the number of IDPs and refugees from the Syrian Civil War. Aid is being seized and resold by combatants. Branches of the Syrian Red Crescent are taking sides.

Corny
Feb 18, 2006

i am scared

iyaayas01 posted:

The IRCG is a completely separate military force from the Iranian armed forces, and frankly they are more than a bit nuts. The Iranian armed forces are generally professional, but the IRCG will do completely off the wall, provocative things (like try and shoot down a drone flying in international airspace).

Does anyone have any links or information regarding the links and cooperation (or more appropriately, lack there of ) between the IRGC and what we would call the traditional Iranian army? I'm way curious about this.

New Division
Jun 23, 2004

I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

tekz posted:

http://www.libyaherald.com/2012/11/07/a-second-car-bomb-in-benghazi/

Another car bomb in Benghazi, and apparently it triggered a fight between the military and the police ??

I wish I had more resources on what's happening on the ground In Libya, but without a flareup like the embassy attack it seems everyone's lost interest in the country now that the war porn's over.

Libya? That's soooo 2011.

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
Big news.

quote:

George Sabra, a leading Christian opposition figure, has been elected at the head of the opposition Syrian National Council, which has been vying to keep its leading role and under US pressure to unify with other groups opposed to President Bashar al-Assad.
It's good that the opposition is coming together. From what I understand this is pressure and coordination from the US to get this rolling. Let's see if they can maintain leadership and structure.

Miruvor
Jan 19, 2007
Pillbug
Isn't the issue still uniting the SNC itself with the other 'on the ground' groups? Or are they attempting unification under the SNC auspice for all now?

Evil Fluffy
Jul 13, 2009

Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.

SilentD posted:

No, it's much different.

That spy plane wasn't shot at. The Chinese plane was loving with them (flying to close and cutting into the air the needed) and an accident happened. That sort of screw ballery is fairly common among military jets. It's not considered hostile, it's just the two sides loving with each other. We used to do it with the Russians all the drat time and we still do it with the Chinese.

The Iranians shot at the drone. That's hostile and not everyday military rival asshattery.

The Chinese also disassembled the plane before returning it didn't they? Unless it was being done with US personnel there they got plenty of information about the plane's systems for their own use.

Just as Iran's going to make full use of the US Drone they got, regardless of it being hijacked or a malfunction.

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
Well, you'd think they would either put some type of 'self-destruct' into the system that makes it impossible to duplicate, or on the other hand make it almost impossible to reverse engineer for the most critical systems. But I don't know..

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New Division
Jun 23, 2004

I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.
The US said that they doubted the Iranians could reverse engineer the systems off the drone they caught, which was entirely intact and almost undamaged. I dunno know about that. The Iranians definitely don't have the technological base the U.S. does, but it seems a bit dumb to write off their ability to learn anything from the captured drone.

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