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Brown Moses posted:It's possibly a dig at SOHR. Professor Higgens, SA chair of weaponology. So, based on evidence would you agree it appears to be a fairly large single source distributor of weapons in southern Syria? Obviously that really suggests a state actor with Jordanese cooperation, but have weapons of similar assumed providence been showing up anywhere else? Also, any indication if these weapons are new/refurbished? farraday fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Feb 6, 2013 |
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Feb 5, 2013 23:51
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farraday posted:Professor Higgens, SA chair of weaponology. I've seen the RPG-22 and M79 Osa turn up in Aleppo, a M60 in Damascus that seems to have been taken there by the Horan Martyrs, RPG-22s, M79 Osas, and RBG-6s northwest of Hama, and RPG-22s and M79 Osas just south of Maart al-Numaan in Idlib. Seems where ever these weapons are turning up there's been a new rebel offensive, and they certainly seem to have a good supply of them judging by the way they are using them. In addition to that what's interesting is no MANPADS or other AA weapons have been supplied, and the ammo these weapons isn't widely used in the region (and the RPG-22 is one shot), so it's pretty easy to cut off the supply and minimise the risk of them showing up in other countries. As I noted on EA Worldview they all appear to be going to units under the FSA banner, not to groups outside the FSA like Jabhat al-Nusra. It's hard to know if they are new or refurbished, although I'm not sure the M60 is actually manufactured anymore. Finding out information on these old Yugoslavia weapons is much more difficult than the Soviet stuff, there's barely any photos of the M60 recoilless gun for example. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Feb 6, 2013 |
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Feb 6, 2013 00:02
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Saw this on the EA link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jrGO3I2Xwc A howitzer being fired at an angle indicating indirect fire. This means either they know what they're doing, have skilled observers, skilled fire control, and have a method for firing control, observers and the gun position to all communicate. Or, they really don't care where that thing lands in the least and won't be accurate within kilometers. The fact that many of the men in that video are in the same uniform, combined with the EA text saying it is hitting a specific base, seems to indicate these guys do in fact know what they are doing. So, defectors? Seems more likely than some interested party running some sort of artillery boot camp post-rebellion. Or, it could be just proof of concept, and the firers know that everything downrange is not populated, and the EA text is wrong. edit: If they do know what they are doing, the fact that they are standing so far from the piece during firing indicates they don't trust it. edit2: from wikipedia - "The M-46 was developed from the M-36 130 mm naval gun used on ships and for coast defence. It is a true Gun being unable to fire much above 45° and having a long barrel and single propelling charge." So, not an actual howitzer, but some sort of ground version of a naval gun? Weird. Soviet weapons are strange. Best Friends fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Feb 6, 2013 |
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Feb 6, 2013 00:07
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Brown Moses posted:I've seen the RPG-22 and M79 Osa turn up in Aleppo, a M60 in Damascus that seems to have been taken there by the Horan Martyrs, RPG-22s, M79 Osas, and RBG-6s northwest of Hama, and RPG-22s and M79 Osas just south of Maart al-Numaan in Idlib. Seems where ever these weapons are turning up there's been a new rebel offensive, and they certainly seem to have a good supply of them judging by the way they are using them. I would suggest if, as you presume, a desire to prevent long term proliferation is part of the new influx through peculiar equipment, it is more likely they supplier would also limit themselves to only one supply corridor. I'm predisposed to seeing it coming from the south which might also prevent co-option by more established northern weapons routes that are feeding money into radical groups. The M-60's as you say would seem to indicate refurbished weapons... but outside of the former Yugoslavic states themselves I'm not sure who would have a large enough older stockpile to manage supply, and I don't know how well the old Yugoslav stockpiles survived the civil wars. A few scenarios come to mind but there is very little to anchor them to.
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Feb 6, 2013 00:36
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Best Friends posted:edit2: from wikipedia - It's a field gun. Forty-five degrees of elevation is fine for general indirect fire, it just doesn't allow for plunging fire. Generally also means it's better suited for direct fire or even anti-armor work (Though that's pretty much a 40's-60's thing before ATGMs became all the rage)
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Feb 6, 2013 01:25
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Curious--how accurate is someone who is well trained (with with no computer aid) firing a howitzer?
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Feb 6, 2013 01:48
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c0ldfuse posted:Curious--how accurate is someone who is well trained (with with no computer aid) firing a howitzer? Depending on range, you probably can't see where the round lands. You get within a couple hundred meters of where you want, but without a forward observer saying you were north 200 meters and east 150 meters, you're kind of pissing in the wind. I wasn't artillery, but I've called for fire. I can't see it being anywhere near as effective off guesswork. But they have radios, and they have maps. It's not rocket science to walk a round in.
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Feb 6, 2013 01:57
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c0ldfuse posted:Curious--how accurate is someone who is well trained (with with no computer aid) firing a howitzer? More-or-less as accurate as his spotter. If both have good maps and the artillery gets good coordinates, then they're usually alright on accuracy as long as someone able to see the impact area is able to help adjust fire. E:f;b
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Feb 6, 2013 01:58
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Theres probably at least a few experienced ex-regime artillery men working with the FSA now so there might not be that much guesswork involved in the operations of those guns. And hell, even if there isnt I bet its not too hard for a 2 guys (one manning the gun, one spotter with a radio) to eventually get the rounds in the right spot. I would hate to know how many civilians would die in the process.
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Feb 6, 2013 04:46
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farraday posted:The M-60's as you say would seem to indicate refurbished weapons... but outside of the former Yugoslavic states themselves I'm not sure who would have a large enough older stockpile to manage supply, and I don't know how well the old Yugoslav stockpiles survived the civil wars. A few scenarios come to mind but there is very little to anchor them to. Yugoslavia had a large arms trade with Iraq. That would fit with your theory of the arms coming from the south.
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Feb 6, 2013 06:24
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Charliegrs posted:
Indirect fire, hitting targets over the horizon, requires communication between observer and fire control. As far as aiming the piece in indirect fire, winging it would miss by kilometres, possibly outside what the observer can even see. Small seeming adjustments shift the fire tremendously too. Tiny things have a huge effect over 20km. Artillery may seem dumb, but it developed over centuries. Weather, wind, temperature of the propellant, as well as nearly imperceptible differences in angle make a big difference in long range. It would be a extremely involved, high error operation to just figure it out from scratch, and in a war zone. In comparison, there have been thousands of people trained on artillery in every nation that has a military. Or, people could be trained. Either way, just winging it seems like not just the worst, but least likely. Earlier in this thread there was video of a crew that did appear to be winging it, and it looked like it. They didn't dig it in, it didn't look like they aimed, and most critically, they were using it for direct fire. This group here might be winging it and putting on a show, but in that case they have no chance of hitting any target smaller than "city."
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Feb 6, 2013 08:36
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Best Friends posted:Saw this on the EA link: As for the weapons appearing in the south, I wouldn't say they are from Iraq. The southern parts of Syria (the Horan Plateau and its environs) don't have easy access to sympathetic parts of Iraq. The places in Syria that do have access are mostly Hasake and Deir El Zour, which have been quiet lately. These weapons are being smuggled in via Jordan. From what Brown Moses mentioned, I wouldn't think the gulf states are doing the smuggling, more likely some entities with a more western or secular outlook. If we were to take a look at this in more geo-social terms, the south of Syria is the most heterogeneous, except for the Druze areas of Sweida. The Druze have been slightly supportive of the revolution than most other minorities, and the Druze elites even more so. This is probably why the region is getting an influx of weapons to less radical groups: there isn't much chance of genocide happening, so flooding it with arms is much less risky than sending arms to the northern front, where there are a lot of Sunni-Alewite faultlines, or to the east where there are a lot of Arab-Kurdish faultlines.
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Feb 6, 2013 11:36
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The leader of Tunisia's leftist opposition party was shot and killed a couple hours ago. No word on details. Might be some pretty big developments based on that as a result. There's already mass protests breaking out.
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Feb 6, 2013 12:29
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Apparently theres a lot of support for Gaddafi and his "green resistance" still. Even though hes, you know, dead. The green resistance even has its own news channel called "Jamahiriya news" and its comical. I don't know where they find their reporters, they dont move a muscle! http://youtu.be/u3mgLKPCWNE
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Feb 6, 2013 21:57
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In this video a Syrian army tank driver talks about the T72 AZ he uses, and it's various flaws and advantages https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFF4Gc9Mb5c
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Feb 6, 2013 22:13
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Brown Moses posted:In this video a Syrian army tank driver talks about the T72 AZ he uses, and it's various flaws and advantages I couldn't help it 
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Feb 6, 2013 22:28
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Brown Moses posted:In this video a Syrian army tank driver talks about the T72 AZ he uses, and it's various flaws and advantages I appreciate his honesty but he seems a little too forthcoming with his gripes. It's interesting.
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Feb 6, 2013 23:37
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Pretty funny. "Well, sometimes the armor just falls off, but it's a great tank the rest of the time!"
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Feb 7, 2013 01:50
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Charliegrs posted:Apparently theres a lot of support for Gaddafi and his "green resistance" still. Even though hes, you know, dead. The green resistance even has its own news channel called "Jamahiriya news" and its comical. I don't know where they find their reporters, they dont move a muscle! Consider the fact that it's in English very carefully.
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Feb 7, 2013 01:56
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Volkerball posted:The leader of Tunisia's leftist opposition party was shot and killed a couple hours ago. No word on details. Might be some pretty big developments based on that as a result. There's already mass protests breaking out. The Tunisian PM has dissolved the Islamist government.
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Feb 7, 2013 07:26
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Oops quote:Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas mixed up the names of Egypt's democratically elected president and his ousted authoritarian predecessor when he tried to thank his hosts at an Islamic summit in Cairo on Wednesday. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_EGYPT_PALESTINIAN_GAFFE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-02-06-10-15-35
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Feb 7, 2013 08:39
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The Syrian army is down with the kids http://youtu.be/XNE02kHvn_E
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Feb 7, 2013 12:24
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mediadave posted:The Syrian army is down with the kids "After accomplishing a mission cleansing a town from NATO Al Qaeda FSA mercenaries a group of Syrian Army soldiers decided to celebrate their own way. Enjoy the dance." poo poo, they found us out! How'd they know that NATO has really been in cahoots with Al Qaeda all along!
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Feb 7, 2013 14:21
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PleasingFungus posted:Pretty funny. "Well, sometimes the armor just falls off, but it's a great tank the rest of the time!" Is he talking about the reactive armor?
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Feb 7, 2013 15:33
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Lawman 0 posted:Is he talking about the reactive armor? He is talking about the skirts covering the side of the tanks. They're connected to the body with tiny little pins and are prone to falling off if the tank does something it wasn't designed to do, like move in an urban environment.
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Feb 7, 2013 15:45
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Adding ERA blocks to the side skirts is probably something the bracings weren't designed for.
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Feb 7, 2013 16:25
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If they fall off that easily they're probably not that great defensively anyway.
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Feb 7, 2013 16:35
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That explains why I keep seeing video of that sort of tank missing the side skirting.
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Feb 7, 2013 16:47
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:If they fall off that easily they're probably not that great defensively anyway. All spaced armour will tear off if you drive too close to walls and other obstacles. They need to be easily removable in case a track breaks or you need to do other servicing on the road. It's also better to let them fall off than get the vehicle stuck from them. Brown Moses posted:That explains why I keep seeing video of that sort of tank missing the side skirting. Not necessarily - they're removable. Some models don't even have any, and there are a few different types of skirting used on different models - some metal, some rubber, some plastic. German WW2 tankers would also often remove the track skirts on their tanks when operating in regions where most roads were narrow and lined with stone walls, like Mediterranean. Skirts could fall off due to driving or battle damage, but then you are more likely to have one or a couple of panels missing, not all panels. Eg. this Iraqi T-62 has the rearmost panel missing, and the other panels are quite bent too. 
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Feb 7, 2013 17:41
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That tankers face is the best  
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Feb 7, 2013 18:17
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I have read that a secular Feminist is a Vice President and the third VP spot formerly left open for a Kurdish member has been filled with a Christian Communist. Basically, if Assad falls, what sectarian lines/organizations which exist within the FSA will take up arms and continue the civil war? I imagine the Islamists will but are there any groups to match them?
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Feb 7, 2013 20:35
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Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:I have read that a secular Feminist is a Vice President and the third VP spot formerly left open for a Kurdish member has been filled with a Christian Communist. At the rate things are going it'll be a long time until Assad falls, by which time the opposition will be armed to the teeth and the country will be in ruins. What's interesting at the moment is it appears the FSA are receiving arms from outside of Syria, and I think that's an effort, by someone, to counter Jabhat al-Nusra's growing strength and influence. I've been tracking them, and I've made a series of posts about them: Are Yugoslavian Anti-Tank Weapons Being Smuggled Into Syria? Evidence Of Multiple Foreign Weapon Systems Smuggled To The Syrian Opposition In Daraa Foreign Smuggled Weapons Spread Northwards Into Syria I also helped EA Worldview out with this summary of the latest information on them, Someone is Arming the Insurgents...and It's Working.
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Feb 7, 2013 21:02
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Thanks for the links.
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Feb 7, 2013 21:07
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I've also just helped with a new update at EA Worldview on these weapons turning up in Damascus.
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Feb 7, 2013 22:50
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Brown Moses posted:I've also just helped with a new update at EA Worldview on these weapons turning up in Damascus.
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Feb 8, 2013 00:43
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Things not going well in Tunisia. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21366235
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Feb 8, 2013 01:00
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Any good articles on the state of the Arab Spring in Yemen and Libya?
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Feb 8, 2013 01:28
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I saw this vid on Liveleak today. Is that a M79 Osa or RPG29? I'm leaning towards RPG29 http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=dd9_1359304464
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Feb 8, 2013 02:22
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Sounds like Assad forces have retaken a town called Karnaz, along the Damascus-Aleppo highway, which was seized by rebels in December.
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Feb 8, 2013 02:32
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Charliegrs posted:I saw this vid on Liveleak today. Is that a M79 Osa or RPG29? I'm leaning towards RPG29 RPG29, the grip is pretty distinctive.
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Feb 8, 2013 03:02
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