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compton rear end terry posted:Ryan Bader +295 cause gently caress it 
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Sep 5, 2013 02:22
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Sep 5, 2013 02:23
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gently caress, Okami...I was so sure that he would win the fight. gently caress it, put $45.00 to win $20.93 on Glover finishing. That'll cover 2/3 of my losses at least.
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Sep 5, 2013 02:24
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Sep 5, 2013 02:29
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YEAAAA BRAZILIAN LIDDELL
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Sep 5, 2013 02:31
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golden oldies pete posted:i've ended up money the last couple of events so i'm going to keep going until i lose horribly you played with fire and look what happened
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Sep 5, 2013 02:34
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A stupid newbie question: In the OP it says "The "slightly," unfortunately, is enough to make nearly every sports bet unwinnable over the long-term." Can someone elaborate on this? Let's say I started betting on UFC and I always put money on the favorite. Why wouldn't I be likely to come out on top in the long run?
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Sep 5, 2013 14:55
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caiman posted:A stupid newbie question: Your returns on heavily favored fighters would be tiny and one upset would really gently caress over your meager winnings. MMA betting is only fun on underdog bets (MATT SERRA KNOCKED OUT GSP WOO I WON MONEY ON THAT NEVER FORGET!!!) or stupid parlays.
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Sep 5, 2013 15:13
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caiman posted:A stupid newbie question: The house is going to try and make a little money every fight. If you kept betting on favourites you'd probably make small profits until you lost it all in an upset and considering it's MMA upsets aren't uncommon.
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Sep 5, 2013 15:15
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Makes sense. So on average how common are upsets (I'm new to MMA too)? I would think if they didn't happen more than about every 1 in 5 fights, then a favorite-betting strategy would still be mildly profitable. But maybe they're more common than that?
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Sep 5, 2013 15:48
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caiman posted:Makes sense. So on average how common are upsets (I'm new to MMA too)? I would think if they didn't happen more than about every 1 in 5 fights, then a favorite-betting strategy would still be mildly profitable. But maybe they're more common than that? Let my misadventures be an example. I've recently bet on Anderson Silva, Machida, and Benson Henderson.  But I also bet on Anthony Perosh and Rothwell. Apparently the stupider a pick the better I do.
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Sep 5, 2013 16:03
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caiman posted:Makes sense. So on average how common are upsets (I'm new to MMA too)? I would think if they didn't happen more than about every 1 in 5 fights, then a favorite-betting strategy would still be mildly profitable. But maybe they're more common than that? Betting favorites lose roughly a third of the time (if you exclude pick-em odds). Don't bet on MMA, but if you do make really stupid bets and post them in this thread.
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Sep 5, 2013 16:31
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MMA is heavily bet on enough now that if there's a profitable overall angle like "bet on underdogs" (and there isn't anyways), a syndicate would have already figured it out and bet enough to make it unprofitable for the rest of the world. This isn't the good old days where a little public money in Vegas would create goofy lines.
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Sep 5, 2013 16:33
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My NFL betting supports my MMA idiocy betting. I view MMA betting as more entertainment and rarely put more than $5 on a fighter. (Except for $20 on A. Silva, Machida, and Benson ARGH!)
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Sep 5, 2013 16:37
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caiman posted:Makes sense. So on average how common are upsets (I'm new to MMA too)? I would think if they didn't happen more than about every 1 in 5 fights, then a favorite-betting strategy would still be mildly profitable. But maybe they're more common than that? If 1 in 5 favourites lost the lines would be set so you come about just under even from the other four favourites winning. It's like in roulette, theres red, black and zero, you double your money if you correctly bet on red, but slightly less than half the fields are red.
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Sep 5, 2013 16:50
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Or you could just bet on Alpha Male fighters to win all non-title fights and lose all title fights and you would win every single time.
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Sep 5, 2013 17:11
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caiman posted:A stupid newbie question: In sports betting everyone loses long-term because of the house edge (also known as the juice). For example, look at the current odds for Jones/Gustafsson on 5dimes. Jones is at -650, which has an implied probability of 86.67% Gustafsson is at +475, which has an implied probability of 17.39% 86.67% + 17.39% = 104.06% (a house edge of 4.06%) The true odds for Jones/Gustafsson can be found by dividing the implied odds by the total implied odds. Jones = 86.67% / 104.06% = 83.29% Gustafsson = 17.39% / 104.06% = 16.71% 83.29% + 16.71% = 100% So by betting on Jones you win 83.29% of the time but have to win 86.67% of the time to break even. For Gustafsson, you win 16.71% of the time but need to win 17.39% of the time to break even. The house edge makes it impossible to come out on top in the long run.
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Sep 5, 2013 21:27
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vainman posted:
Not impossible because there are people that make their living sports betting but its not easy, and i dont personally know of any that do it betting on MMA. Youre still betting against the average idiot bettor so even with the juice there is dead money to be found in certain lines at certain times, but way less than there used to be in MMA now that people know the sport a bit better The unromantic part of sports betting is that to win you arent just picking who's going to win, its how much value there is in the line. Like if i think gustaffsson wins that fight in your example 25% of the time then there is some tiny value in taking that bet even though 3/4 times youre just throwing your money away. And then the part that makes MMA so high variance is if jones just destroys gustaffsson in the first round i have no way of knowing if there was expected value in my bet (aside from the obvious fact that it lost in this instance) since they wont be rematching, at least not under similar conditions. Whereas in Ball Spoarts teams play against each other a million times a season Im way up lifetime in MMA betting but my bets are few and far between and i try to only take lines that i think have insanely high value (and it helps that i have rich gambler friends who will take action with no house edge) to make up for the crazy high short term variance. Like when i bet 500 bucks on Cain over Lesnar when he was a 3:1 underdog or something. Id take that bet all day whereas i wouldnt put more than a couple bucks on jones/gus just because i dont see any obvious value and i have no special insight into that one. I think jones probably does win around 85% of the time, maybe a tiny bit more but then why bet on it tl;dr this avatar is cool
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Sep 6, 2013 00:15
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I thought that Jacare being a favorite over Okami showed how stupid sports bettors were. The lesson is never listen to goons in general and me in particular.
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Sep 6, 2013 01:45
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Fat Twitter Man posted:I thought that Jacare being a favorite over Okami showed how stupid sports bettors were. The lesson is never listen to goons in general and me in particular. Even knowing Okami got starched I think that line was silly.
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Sep 6, 2013 02:20
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Captain Log posted:Even knowing Okami got starched I think that line was silly. Why?
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Sep 6, 2013 03:11
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He expended too much energy and got tired
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Dangersim posted:Why? I personally pictured Okami jabbing and circling away for 15 minutes like he did versus Munoz. When Jacare pushed him into the fence right off the bat I knew it was over no matter how it ended. Okami's strength has always been controlling distance and I just assumed he would be able to do that effortlessly. Then again the only two fights I've seen Jacare in were versus Ed Herman and Chris Camozzi and I may have been underhyping him.
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Sep 6, 2013 03:46
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The number of people who thought Jacare was going to get outstruck by Okami of all people was genuinely baffling to me.
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Sep 6, 2013 03:56
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fatherdog posted:The number of people who thought Jacare was going to get outstruck by Okami of all people was genuinely baffling to me. I agree, it was like everyone assumed bjj wizard=bad striker. Its been pretty clear that Jacare has been a very dangerous striker since the Rockhold fight.
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Sep 6, 2013 08:30
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Fat Twitter Man posted:Then again the only two fights I've seen Jacare in were versus Ed Herman and Chris Camozzi and I may have been underhyping him. This was likely my undoing on this one.
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Sep 6, 2013 14:41
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Khabib Nurmagomedov -245 Pat Healy +205 Dustin Kimura -165 Mitch Gagnon +145 Gagnon and Healy look like good "upsets" to me
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Sep 19, 2013 23:17
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syxxcowz posted:Khabib Nurmagomedov -245 i've got 50 on healy. those odds are just ridiculous. what he did to jim miller still has me waking up in the middle of the night sweating.
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Sep 20, 2013 01:53
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I havent been paying attention much in the leadup to this card but Healy at that line seems pretty wild
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Sep 20, 2013 02:29
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I have 20 on Healy and 10 on Carmont because I'm a moron.
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Sep 20, 2013 03:17
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$7.50 to win $9.75: Mitrione wins by TKO/KO +130 $10.00 to win $8.33: Matt Mitrione -120* vs Brendan Schaub $2.50 to win $18.25: Guelmino wins by 3 round decision +730 $8.00 to win $18.40: Nandor Guelmino +230* vs Daniel Omielanczuk $2 to win $59.91 parlay that will never hit: Jones, Barao, Mitrione, Carmont, Khabib, Jury, Menjivar, Thompson, Makdessi $5.00 to win $13.15: Carmont wins by 3 round decision +263 $5.00 to win $3.09: Wineland/Barao starts round 3 -162 $9.20 to win $5.86: Gustafsson/Jones starts round 3 -157 Not super excited for this weekend, hopefully I at least come out ahead. Also I don't think Healy is gonna win, he did good against Miller but Miller always fades after one round. I think Khabib will keep it standing and outstrike him.
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Sep 20, 2013 06:00
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Uh I have no idea why you'd think Miller fades after one round. Dude's had tons of three round fights where he looked fine.
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Sep 20, 2013 14:34
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$10.00 to win $550.00 Pending 9/21/13 6:00pm Props Fighting 12021 Mike Ricci wins SUB of the Night +5500* vs Not SUB of the Night Winner/no winner $10.00 to win $65.00 Pending 9/21/13 6:00pm Props Fighting 11011 Matt Mitrione wins KO of the night +650* vs Not KO of the Night Winner/no winner
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Sep 21, 2013 20:03
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vainman posted:$10.00 to win $550.00 Pending 9/21/13 6:00pm Props Fighting 12021 Mike Ricci wins SUB of the Night +5500* vs Not SUB of the Night Winner/no winner Lol these bets own. Ricci for sub of the night is killer
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Sep 21, 2013 20:06
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I dream big
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Sep 21, 2013 20:07
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vainman posted:$10.00 to win $550.00 Pending 9/21/13 6:00pm Props Fighting 12021 Mike Ricci wins SUB of the Night +5500* vs Not SUB of the Night Winner/no winner I'm very conflicted by your Ricci bet in that it's pretty wild a bad but man you have faith in Mike Ricci props.
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Sep 21, 2013 22:48
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attackmole posted:Uh I have no idea why you'd think Miller fades after one round. Dude's had tons of three round fights where he looked fine. Diaz, Bendo, Healy. Miller's good but he has always faded when put up against top 10 fighters. All of those guys beat the poo poo out of him after he started to slow down.
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Sep 22, 2013 01:09
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MrSmokes posted:Diaz, Bendo, Healy. Miller's good but he has always faded when put up against top 10 fighters. All of those guys beat the poo poo out of him after he started to slow down. I remember him getting mauled less in the 3rd round of the Bendo fight than earlier in the fight.
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Sep 22, 2013 01:43
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Meathead $5 to win $5 Bam Bam $3.33 to win $6.66 Parlayed both for $1.67 to win $8.34 Total $10 to win $20 All I need is one of these dudes to win to break even, but what a windfall in deed if they both win.
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Sep 22, 2013 02:38
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Welp. Apparently the oddsmakers were right on Pat Healy. Didn't expect that. I haven't seen odds deviate from rankings/fighter perception that much in a while, but poo poo, guess it didn't pay off.
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Sep 22, 2013 03:40
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Put some money on Jones to win because if he loses ill be so happy I wont care I lost money.
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Sep 22, 2013 03:51
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