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Week3 Top 25:code:
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# ? Sep 16, 2013 18:57 |
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# ? May 4, 2024 11:44 |
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Captain von Trapp posted:Here's my quasi-clone of the old DIVISIONB.CSV file, this time in convenient Pastebin format: http://pastebin.com/A3SqYttG I went ahead and attempted to write something that takes in your .csv file and strips out the duplicate FBS vs FCS games. It loaded for me fine but if anyone finds somethings not working let me know and I will try to fix it. Available here : http://pastebin.com/UF3FArsv.
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# ? Sep 21, 2013 09:50 |
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 4: #GoACC Edition What more can I say? FSU, Maryland, (Louisville) and GT all in the top 10. This is madness, also known as an early season objective poll that doesn't use an initial seed of the prior year's results. Other hallucinatory quirks: Wyoming is in the top 25, and this is real. Missouri is higher ranked than Alabama, Minnesota is a top 25 team, Texas State is ahead of Texas, Memphis is higher rated than Boise State, and Clemson is inexplicably below Florida, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, and Ball State. The author has no defense for these, but expects that at the end of the season he will dredge this set of mysteries out and point to one with a cackling, gibbering laugh as the madness overtakes us all. pre:Rank Team Rating 1 'LSU' 1.275 2 'Louisville' 1.250 3 'Missouri' 1.223 4 'Oregon' 1.222 5 'Alabama' 1.219 6 'Florida St.' 1.219 7 'Texas Tech' 1.219 8 'Maryland' 1.212 9 'Georgia Tech' 1.201 10 'UCLA' 1.201 11 'Oklahoma St.' 1.188 12 'Michigan' 1.168 13 'Ohio St.' 1.165 14 'Baylor' 1.164 15 'Washington' 1.163 16 'Stanford' 1.155 17 'Penn St.' 1.153 18 'Oklahoma' 1.150 19 'Wisconsin' 1.146 20 'Georgia' 1.146 21 'Minnesota' 1.146 22 'Southern Cal' 1.136 23 'UCF' 1.135 24 'Washington St. 1.135 25 'Wyoming' 1.128 26 'Utah St.' 1.126 27 'Auburn' 1.123 28 'Northwestern' 1.120 29 'Texas A&M' 1.107 30 'Ole Miss' 1.105 31 'Navy' 1.105 32 'Arizona' 1.104 33 'Mississippi St 1.085 34 'Ball St.' 1.084 35 'Houston' 1.077 36 'Miami (FL)' 1.065 37 'South Carolina 1.065 38 'Virginia Tech' 1.065 39 'Syracuse' 1.064 40 'Utah' 1.063 41 'Notre Dame' 1.061 42 'Florida' 1.057 43 'Rutgers' 1.056 44 'Clemson' 1.055 45 'Michigan St.' 1.054 46 'Illinois' 1.045 47 'Pittsburgh' 1.044 48 'Indiana' 1.043 49 'Arkansas' 1.042 50 'Ohio' 1.033 51 'Marshall' 1.020 52 'Arizona St.' 1.019 53 'Nebraska' 1.016 54 'UTSA' 1.013 55 'Oregon St.' 1.004 56 'Memphis' 1.004 57 'Boise St.' 0.993 58 'Vanderbilt' 0.983 59 'Kentucky' 0.979 60 'Bowling Green' 0.979 61 'Iowa' 0.979 62 'BYU' 0.975 63 'North Carolina 0.975 64 'Cincinnati' 0.974 65 'North Texas' 0.965 66 'Duke' 0.964 67 'Tennessee' 0.960 68 'Fresno St.' 0.952 69 'Texas St.' 0.951 70 'Texas' 0.947 71 'Rice' 0.939 72 'East Carolina' 0.939 73 'Virginia' 0.934 74 'Colorado' 0.932 75 'TCU' 0.930 76 'Nevada' 0.926 77 'Middle Tenn.' 0.923 78 'South Ala.' 0.921 79 'Wake Forest' 0.921 80 'Toledo' 0.921 81 'Kansas St.' 0.910 82 'Northern Ill.' 0.910 83 'Boston College 0.905 84 'Western Ky.' 0.903 85 'UAB' 0.901 86 'Kansas' 0.888 87 'La.-Monroe' 0.872 88 'UTSA' 0.867 89 'UNLV' 0.867 90 'West Virginia' 0.852 91 'North Car. St. 0.852 92 'San Jose St.' 0.848 93 'La.-Lafayette' 0.844 94 'Colorado St.' 0.828 95 'Tulane' 0.827 96 'Massachusetts' 0.824 97 'Arkansas St.' 0.824 98 'Troy' 0.821 99 'UTEP' 0.820 100 'New Mexico' 0.819 101 'Tulsa' 0.799 102 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.797 103 'California' 0.791 104 'Southern Miss. 0.764 105 'Louisiana Tech 0.747 106 'Army' 0.740 107 'Air Force' 0.737 108 'Eastern Mich.' 0.737 109 'Kent St.' 0.736 110 'Buffalo' 0.725 111 'Purdue' 0.722 112 'Iowa St.' 0.715 113 'Akron' 0.714 114 'Temple' 0.714 115 'SMU' 0.710 116 'Connecticut' 0.705 117 'Miami (OH)' 0.694 118 'Hawaii' 0.693 119 'Idaho' 0.692 120 'New Mexico St. 0.652 121 'Western Mich.' 0.652 122 'Central Mich.' 0.643 123 'San Diego St.' 0.641 Notional 1-AA Team: 0.600 124 'South Fla.' 0.573 125 'FIU' 0.557 126 'Georgia State' 0.440
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# ? Sep 22, 2013 16:09 |
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Pastebin link for this week's DIVISIONB.CSV clone: http://pastebin.com/TU2WjEV1 Standard caveats apply: all games are listed twice - a line for A vs B and a line for B vs A. This is true for games involving FCS teams as well. I will fix this eventually.
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# ? Sep 22, 2013 19:22 |
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Captain von Trapp posted:Pastebin link for this week's DIVISIONB.CSV clone: http://pastebin.com/TU2WjEV1 Here is the data without duplicates for FCS if anyone needs it: http://pastebin.com/HvNN2sfN If you want I can give you the code to remove the duplicates. What language is yours written in? My rankings for this week : quote:1 Baylor Frolic fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Sep 22, 2013 |
# ? Sep 22, 2013 23:23 |
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Frolic posted:Here is the data without duplicates for FCS if anyone needs it: http://pastebin.com/HvNN2sfN Python. Sure, I'd be interested in the code to remove the duplicates. I'll be happy to post my reader code too, but be warned I've managed to write basically unreadable Python which is quite the accomplishment.
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# ? Sep 23, 2013 02:17 |
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Captain von Trapp posted:Python. Sure, I'd be interested in the code to remove the duplicates. I'll be happy to post my reader code too, but be warned I've managed to write basically unreadable Python which is quite the accomplishment. My code is on github here under convert.py. I just made mine use my parsing to pull out a list of fbs teams then goes through the list one at a time and removing any where the one on the left isn't fbs. If you wanted something that doesn't require using my loader/parsing/poo poo code you could probably do something like this if you pass it a list of the teams in fbs: code:
My isgood() is just there so I didn't have to have to many or's. Looks like this: code:
I would be interested in seeing your code. I'm new to python so it'd be interesting to see how someone else approached it. Frolic fucked around with this message at 14:32 on Sep 23, 2013 |
# ? Sep 23, 2013 04:24 |
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Go Dubs, I guess. pre:1. Washington 2. Oregon 3. Florida State 4. Georgia Tech 5. Texas Tech 6. Louisville 7. Maryland 8. Oklahoma 9. Oklahoma State 10. LSU 11. Alabama 12. UCLA 13. Baylor 14. Miami (FL) 15. Ohio State 16. Arizona 17. Clemson 18. UCF 19. Washington State 20. Michigan 21. Stanford 22. Missouri 23. Houston 24. Navy 25. Ole Miss Bottom 10 - 10. Iowa State 9. Florida International 8. New Mexico State 7. Idaho 6. San Diego State 5. Connecticut 4. Western Michigan 3. Massachusetts 2. South Florida 1. Georgia State Conferences - 1. Pac 12 2. Big 10 3. SEC 4. ACC 5. Big 12 6. American ^7. MWC v8. Sun Belt 9. Conference USA 10. MAC
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# ? Sep 23, 2013 15:42 |
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Week 4 Top 25code:
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# ? Sep 23, 2013 18:08 |
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Basil Hayden posted:I'll be doing weekly compilations of rankings throughout the season, like I did last year. These come complete with deviation measures, BCS comparisons, a Bottom Ten just for fun, and of course big tables with tiny football helmets in them. Yeah so obviously I haven't been doing this. I seem to have a lot less time on my hands than I did last year, so I don't even have my ratings working yet. I will try to fix both of these problems for the coming week.
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# ? Sep 29, 2013 16:01 |
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DIVISIONB.CSV (FCS duplications included) pastebin: http://pastebin.com/iW9m7Qbm This is the first week of my poll. I'm only including the top 25 as I haven't worked out FCS handling yet. As every week, I implore somebody to find a CSV file for FCS. code:
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# ? Sep 29, 2013 20:39 |
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 5: Starting To Look Sane Edition Given that my method is also almost only looking at margin of victory- just with home/away included- it shouldn't be a surprise that mine and Von Trapp's have a lot in common; I would GUESS that maybe accounting for location would bring us even closer into agreement and if I corrected for numbers of games played (e.g. the difference between Trapp having UCLA high and me having it at 18 is probably that htey played 3 games instead of 4) but aside from that it's likely just minute differences in algorithm! pre:Rank Team Rating 1 'Alabama' 1.308 2 'Stanford' 1.279 3 'Oregon' 1.250 4 'Washington' 1.229 5 'Florida St.' 1.228 6 'LSU' 1.222 7 'Missouri' 1.207 8 'Oklahoma' 1.204 9 'Ohio St.' 1.200 10 'Maryland' 1.196 11 'Texas Tech' 1.185 12 'Georgia' 1.183 13 'Houston' 1.180 14 'Texas A&M' 1.175 15 'Virginia Tech' 1.174 16 'Arizona St.' 1.165 17 'Utah St.' 1.150 18 'UCLA' 1.146 19 'Wisconsin' 1.145 20 'Clemson' 1.141 21 'Iowa' 1.140 22 'Florida' 1.134 23 'South Carolina 1.124 24 'Louisville' 1.117 25 'Michigan' 1.112 26 'Texas St.' 1.109 27 'Georgia Tech' 1.099 28 'Oregon St.' 1.095 29 'Ball St.' 1.085 30 'Miami (FL)' 1.085 31 'Illinois' 1.079 32 'Baylor' 1.078 33 'East Carolina' 1.078 34 'Penn St.' 1.075 35 'UCF' 1.066 36 'Vanderbilt' 1.059 37 'Mississippi St 1.056 38 'Syracuse' 1.055 39 'Ole Miss' 1.052 40 'Pittsburgh' 1.049 41 'BYU' 1.048 42 'Oklahoma St.' 1.048 43 'Boise St.' 1.047 44 'Michigan St.' 1.037 45 'Arizona' 1.034 46 'Marshall' 1.031 47 'Ohio' 1.013 48 'Southern Cal' 1.011 49 'Washington St' 1.010 50 'Auburn' 1.002 51 'Western Ky.' 1.001 52 'Minnesota' 1.001 53 'Utah' 1.000 54 'West Virginia' 0.998 55 'Northwestern' 0.996 56 'Tennessee' 0.995 57 'Notre Dame' 0.994 58 'TCU' 0.994 59 'Northern Ill.' 0.987 60 'Memphis' 0.984 61 'Wyoming' 0.977 62 'Arkansas' 0.975 63 'Rutgers' 0.968 64 'Bowling Green' 0.967 65 'Nebraska' 0.965 66 'Navy' 0.963 67 'Fresno St.' 0.955 68 'Rice' 0.950 69 'Duke' 0.950 70 'Texas' 0.940 71 'Indiana' 0.935 72 'Virginia' 0.931 73 'Cincinnati' 0.930 74 'South Ala.' 0.928 75 'Nevada' 0.925 76 'Toledo' 0.924 77 'UNLV' 0.922 78 'Tulane' 0.917 79 'Kentucky' 0.905 80 'UTSA' 0.897 81 'NC State' 0.895 82 'North Texas' 0.879 83 'Colorado St.' 0.875 84 'Kansas St.' 0.862 85 'Boston College 0.860 86 'Colorado' 0.855 87 'Wake Forest' 0.854 88 'Kansas' 0.848 89 'Army' 0.845 90 'Iowa St.' 0.841 91 'North Caro' 0.840 92 'Buffalo' 0.834 93 'La.-Lafayette' 0.831 94 'Middle Tenn.' 0.827 95 'Massachusetts' 0.823 96 'Kent St.' 0.811 97 'UAB' 0.805 98 'Arkansas St.' 0.803 99 'Troy' 0.801 100 'San Jose St.' 0.799 101 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.796 102 'California' 0.759 103 'La.-Monroe' 0.747 104 'Air Force' 0.738 105 'New Mexico' 0.736 106 'Eastern Mich.' 0.731 107 'San Diego St.' 0.721 108 'UTEP' 0.714 109 'Akron' 0.701 110 'Temple' 0.699 111 'Hawaii' 0.696 112 'Southern Miss' 0.692 113 'Tulsa' 0.681 114 'Idaho' 0.670 115 'Purdue' 0.652 116 'Louisiana Tech 0.651 117 'Miami (OH)' 0.650 118 'SMU' 0.649 119 'Central Mich.' 0.579 120 'Western Mich.' 0.574 121 'Connecticut' 0.570 122 'New Mexico St' 0.564 123 'South Fla.' 0.555 124 'FIU' 0.553 125 'Georgia State' 0.444 pre:SEC 1.100 PAC-12 1.069 Big 10 1.028 ACC 1.026 Big 12 1.000 MWC 0.878 AAC 0.872 Independent 0.847 Sun Belt 0.833 MAC 0.822 CUSA 0.819
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# ? Sep 29, 2013 23:12 |
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Hi hi! This is my poll. I think it looks pretty good.pre:Rank Team 1 Alabama 2 Stanford 3 Georgia 4 Washington 5 Oregon 6 Oklahoma 7 Clemson 8 Florida State 9 UCLA 10 LSU 11 Ohio State 12 Baylor 13 South Carolina 14 Texas Tech 15 Missouri 16 Virginia Tech 17 Louisville 18 Auburn 19 Florida 20 Fresno State 21 Pittsburgh 22 Texas A&M 23 Northwestern 24 Arizona State 25 Miami (Florida) 26 Michigan 27 Houston 28 Maryland 29 Penn State 30 UCF 31 Northern Illinois 32 Arizona 33 Georgia Tech 34 Mississippi 35 Utah 36 Ohio 37 Oklahoma State 38 Tennessee 39 Illinois 40 USC 41 East Carolina 42 Ball State 43 Oregon State 44 Rutgers 45 Iowa 46 North Texas 47 Nebraska 48 Bowling Green 49 Washington State 50 Texas State 51 Minnesota 52 Virginia 53 Navy 54 BYU 55 North Carolina State 56 Boise State 57 Western Kentucky 58 Utah State 59 Nevada 60 Notre Dame 61 Duke 62 West Virginia 63 Rice 64 Wisconsin 65 TCU 66 Cincinnati 67 Indiana 68 Mississippi State 69 Syracuse 70 Arkansas 71 Buffalo 72 Boston College 73 Vanderbilt 74 Colorado 75 Marshall 76 Wyoming 77 Tulane 78 Michigan State 79 Texas 80 UNLV 81 Middle Tennessee 82 South Alabama 83 Kansas 84 Louisiana-Monroe 85 North Carolina 86 UTSA 87 Toledo 88 California 89 Arkansas State 90 Wake Forest 91 Kentucky 92 Kent State 93 Army 94 Memphis 95 Louisiana-Lafayette 96 SMU 97 Colorado State 98 San Jose State 99 Troy 100 Tulsa 101 Eastern Michigan 102 Kansas State 103 Florida Atlantic 104 Idaho 105 New Mexico 106 Iowa State 107 Purdue 108 UAB 109 Akron 110 Hawaii 111 Air Force 112 San Diego State 113 Central Michigan 114 Southern Mississippi 115 Louisiana Tech 116 Miami (Ohio) 117 UTEP 118 Florida International 119 Connecticut 120 New Mexico State 121 Western Michigan 122 Temple 123 South Florida 124 Massachusetts 125 Georgia State
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# ? Sep 30, 2013 01:26 |
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Week 5 Top 25:code:
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# ? Sep 30, 2013 23:50 |
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pre:1. Washington 2. Alabama 3. Oregon 4. Florida State 5. Oklahoma 6. Texas Tech 7. Ohio State 8. Clemson 9. Stanford 10. Maryland 11. Louisville 12. Miami (FL) 13. Baylor 14. UCLA 15. Georgia Tech 16. Missouri 17. Houston 18. Michigan 19. LSU 20. Iowa 21. Florida 22. Northwestern 23. Oklahoma State 24. Northern Illinois 25. Penn State pre:10. Miami (OH) 9. San Diego State 8. Louisiana Tech 7. Temple 6. Massachusetts 5. Connecticut 4. New Mexico State 3. South Florida 2. Western Michigan 1. Georgia State
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# ? Oct 3, 2013 16:02 |
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 6 Turns out when you massacre an undefeated team on the road, an ELO-based system flips its wig and gives you ALL THE POINTS, ALL OF THEM as a reward. I'm not sure Maryland was that good, but in absence of evidence to the contrary it's hard to argue with FSU #1. Missouri #2 we'll just pass over in silence, though. The rest of the top 25 looks pretty good, though! pre:Rank Team Rating 1 'Florida St.' 1.330 2 'Missouri' 1.297 3 'Alabama' 1.292 4 'Oregon' 1.290 5 'LSU' 1.289 6 'Stanford' 1.266 7 'Oklahoma' 1.231 8 'Clemson' 1.224 9 'Ohio St.' 1.215 10 'Washington' 1.206 11 'Texas Tech' 1.202 12 'Georgia' 1.196 13 'Michigan' 1.189 14 'Florida' 1.183 15 'Virginia Tech' 1.174 16 'Baylor' 1.171 17 'Miami (FL)' 1.169 18 'BYU' 1.168 19 'UCLA' 1.162 20 'Michigan St.' 1.154 21 'Louisville' 1.142 22 'Ball St.' 1.139 23 'Arizona St.' 1.114 24 'South Carolina 1.113 25 'Marshall' 1.090 26 'Nebraska' 1.082 27 'East Carolina' 1.082 28 'Texas A&M' 1.081 29 'Wisconsin' 1.079 30 'UCF' 1.078 31 'Maryland' 1.077 32 'Indiana' 1.070 33 'Notre Dame' 1.066 34 'Ohio' 1.059 35 'Auburn' 1.058 36 'Houston' 1.057 37 'Oklahoma St.' 1.046 38 'Western Ky.' 1.045 39 'Washington St' 1.042 40 'Georgia Tech' 1.034 41 'Pittsburgh' 1.024 42 'Iowa' 1.024 43 'Bowling Green' 1.022 44 'Utah St.' 1.020 45 'Northern Ill.' 1.015 46 'Boise St.' 1.015 47 'Ole Miss' 1.012 48 'Tennessee' 1.009 49 'La.-Lafayette' 1.001 50 'TCU' 1.000 51 'Oregon St.' 0.999 52 'Navy' 0.996 53 'Fresno St.' 0.993 54 'Vanderbilt' 0.990 55 'Utah' 0.986 56 'Mississippi St 0.982 57 'Rutgers' 0.974 58 'Southern Cal' 0.968 59 'Toledo' 0.965 60 'Boston College 0.964 61 'Northwestern' 0.957 62 'Syracuse' 0.956 63 'Illinois' 0.946 64 'Arkansas' 0.946 65 'Texas' 0.945 66 'Memphis' 0.945 67 'Wyoming' 0.943 68 'Penn St.' 0.941 69 'Wake Forest' 0.934 70 'Duke' 0.934 71 'Rice' 0.931 72 'Buffalo' 0.917 73 'Minnesota' 0.915 74 'Texas St.' 0.913 75 'Kentucky' 0.912 76 'South Ala.' 0.908 77 'Tulane' 0.908 78 'UNLV' 0.906 79 'Arizona' 0.904 80 'West Virginia' 0.897 81 'North Texas' 0.891 82 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.885 83 'Virginia' 0.878 84 'Kansas St.' 0.870 85 'Colorado St.' 0.863 86 'Middle Tenn.' 0.842 87 'North Carolina 0.838 88 'Nevada' 0.836 89 'Iowa St.' 0.835 90 'UTSA' 0.827 91 'North Car St.' 0.826 92 'Troy' 0.824 93 'Colorado' 0.813 94 'San Jose St.' 0.813 95 'Kansas' 0.808 96 'Arkansas St.' 0.803 97 'San Diego St.' 0.801 98 'Cincinnati' 0.799 99 'Army' 0.779 100 'Massachusetts' 0.776 101 'New Mexico' 0.775 102 'Kent St.' 0.766 103 'La.-Monroe' 0.724 104 'Air Force' 0.715 105 'UAB' 0.709 106 'California' 0.708 107 'Louisiana Tech 0.695 108 'South Fla.' 0.694 109 'Tulsa' 0.679 110 'Temple' 0.675 111 'Central Mich.' 0.675 112 'Akron' 0.667 113 'SMU' 0.649 114 'UTEP' 0.646 115 'Eastern Mich.' 0.644 116 'Purdue' 0.641 117 'Hawaii' 0.637 118 'Southern Miss' 0.626 119 'FIU' 0.626 120 'Idaho' 0.622 121 'Connecticut' 0.581 122 'Western Mich.' 0.541 123 'Miami (OH)' 0.532 124 'New Mexico St. 0.489 125 'Georgia State' 0.439
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# ? Oct 6, 2013 14:51 |
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DIVISIONB.CSV pastebin: http://pastebin.com/veQCcVM5 As always, someone find me some friggin' FCS data. At this point I'll post the entire output of my program. There is an idiosyncrasy in that it's essentially a ranking based on games played involving FBS teams. If you're an FCS team who has played FBS teams, you're on the list but your ranking is only determined by the FBS games. I don't like this, but as I haven't had time to revise it from last year when we had CSVs for both FBS and FCS, it is what it is. We're still pretty early in the season, so there's some bad undefeated teams who're highly ranked. This will shake itself out. In the meantime enjoy the comedy of #6 Missouri, etc. code:
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# ? Oct 6, 2013 18:32 |
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I think what's interesting about my poll this week is that it doesn't think the best teams are having the best year. It thinks Florida State is the best team and Baylor is 3rd, yet it thinks they're only having the 6th and 11th best seasons so far. Underperforming? Weak schedule? A bullshit poll which has no idea what it's doing? Who knows.pre:Rank Record Score Team 1 (5-0) 89.608 Stanford 2 (4-1) 82.258 Georgia 3 (5-0) 80.547 Alabama 4 (5-0) 78.438 Oklahoma 5 (5-0) 77.174 Clemson 6 (5-0) 77.157 Florida State 7 (5-0) 75.278 Oregon 8 (4-0) 74.382 UCLA 9 (5-0) 70.598 Miami (Florida) 10 (5-1) 70.423 LSU 11 (4-0) 70.071 Baylor 12 (6-0) 69.284 Ohio State 13 (5-0) 68.83 Missouri 14 (4-1) 68.533 Auburn 15 (4-1) 66.873 Florida 16 (5-0) 64.734 Michigan 17 (4-1) 64.383 South Carolina 18 (4-1) 63.876 Washington 19 (5-0) 63.503 Texas Tech 20 (5-1) 62.817 Virginia Tech 21 (3-1) 61.275 Pittsburgh 22 (5-0) 57.435 Louisville 23 (4-0) 53.516 Houston 24 (4-1) 53.21 Texas A&M 25 (5-0) 53.209 Fresno State 26 (4-1) 49.672 UCF 27 (5-0) 48.948 Northern Illinois 28 (4-2) 46.802 Notre Dame 29 (4-1) 46.704 Ohio 30 (3-1) 45.294 Arizona 31 (5-1) 44.327 Ball State 32 (4-1) 43.825 Oklahoma State 33 (4-1) 43.643 East Carolina 34 (4-1) 43.537 Nebraska 35 (4-1) 43.48 Maryland 36 (4-1) 43.356 Northwestern 37 (4-2) 42.48 Washington State 38 (3-2) 42.164 Arizona State 39 (3-2) 40.165 Georgia Tech 40 (3-2) 39.555 BYU 41 (4-1) 38.962 Rutgers 42 (3-2) 37.929 Utah 43 (3-2) 37.879 USC 44 (4-1) 37.46 Oregon State 45 (3-2) 37.233 Indiana 46 (3-2) 37.049 Mississippi 47 (3-2) 36.777 Penn State 48 (3-1) 36.402 Navy 49 (3-3) 36.06 Tennessee 50 (5-1) 35.47 Bowling Green 51 (4-1) 35.038 Michigan State 52 (4-2) 32.281 Western Kentucky 53 (3-2) 32.16 Boston College 54 (3-2) 31.952 Rice 55 (3-2) 27.096 Buffalo 56 (3-2) 26.99 Duke 57 (3-2) 24.061 Wisconsin 58 (3-2) 23.885 Marshall 59 (3-3) 23.594 West Virginia 60 (4-2) 23.251 Tulane 61 (2-3) 23.248 North Texas 62 (4-2) 23.1 Iowa 63 (4-2) 22.78 Minnesota 64 (3-2) 22.393 Boise State 65 (3-2) 22.108 Illinois 66 (2-3) 21.722 Virginia 67 (3-2) 21.052 Texas 68 (2-3) 20.98 TCU 69 (3-3) 18.829 Wake Forest 70 (3-2) 17.904 North Carolina State 71 (3-3) 17.421 Utah State 72 (2-3) 17.317 Mississippi State 73 (3-3) 16.51 Arkansas 74 (3-2) 16.096 Louisiana-Lafayette 75 (2-3) 15.903 Syracuse 76 (3-2) 15.78 Texas State 77 (3-3) 15.347 Toledo 78 (2-2) 15.127 Colorado 79 (3-3) 14.864 Nevada 80 (3-2) 14.762 Wyoming 81 (3-3) 14.672 Vanderbilt 82 (3-2) 13.278 UNLV 83 (3-3) 11.241 Middle Tennessee 84 (2-3) 9.573 Arkansas State 85 (1-4) 9.201 North Carolina 86 (2-2) 7.583 Kansas 87 (2-4) 7.219 Louisiana-Monroe 88 (3-3) 6.625 Troy 89 (2-4) 4.149 Florida Atlantic 90 (2-3) 4.002 San Jose State 91 (3-2) 3.291 Cincinnati 92 (2-4) 2.098 UTSA 93 (1-4) 1.468 California 94 (1-4) 1.328 Kentucky 95 (2-4) 1.139 Army 96 (2-3) 1.05 South Alabama 97 (1-3) -2.046 Memphis 98 (2-4) -3.789 Kent State 99 (2-3) -4.279 San Diego State 100 (2-3) -5.319 Colorado State 101 (1-4) -5.493 SMU 102 (2-3) -5.893 New Mexico 103 (2-3) -6.312 Kansas State 104 (1-4) -11.331 Tulsa 105 (1-5) -13.686 Idaho 106 (1-5) -13.842 Akron 107 (2-4) -14.017 Central Michigan 108 (1-4) -15.626 Eastern Michigan 109 (2-4) -19.192 Louisiana Tech 110 (1-4) -19.415 Purdue 111 (1-4) -19.675 South Florida 112 (1-4) -21.36 UAB 113 (1-5) -22.262 Air Force 114 (1-3) -23.235 Iowa State 115 (1-4) -24.178 Florida International 116 (0-5) -26.522 Hawaii 117 (0-5) -33.564 Southern Mississippi 118 (0-5) -34.487 Temple 119 (0-4) -34.975 Connecticut 120 (1-4) -38.192 UTEP 121 (0-6) -40.12 Western Michigan 122 (0-5) -41.669 Miami (Ohio) 123 (0-6) -42.87 New Mexico State 124 (0-5) -45.28 Massachusetts 125 (0-5) -57.147 Georgia State
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# ? Oct 6, 2013 18:47 |
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I find it surreal that all three of us have Alabama #3.
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# ? Oct 6, 2013 18:50 |
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They're definitely not the world-beaters they were last season. I don't know if our #1 and #2 teams are right, but having Bama at three... it's not that implausible.
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# ? Oct 6, 2013 22:00 |
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Last poll for me til November, wedding and honeymoon, etc. I also got Alabama third, spooky.pre:Rank Team W-L Score 1. Florida State (5-0) 2.1277 2. Oregon (5-0) 2.0635 3. Alabama (5-0) 1.9032 4. Clemson (5-0) 1.8353 5. Louisville (5-0) 1.8274 6. Ohio State (6-0) 1.7151 7. Baylor (4-0) 1.6950 8. Miami (FL) (5-0) 1.6879 9. Oklahoma (5-0) 1.6505 10. Washington (4-1) 1.6377 11. Texas Tech (5-0) 1.5989 12. UCLA (4-0) 1.5145 13. Stanford (5-0) 1.4168 14. Missouri (5-0) 1.3796 15. Houston (4-0) 1.2729 16. Florida (4-1) 1.2688 17. LSU (5-1) 1.2548 18. Virginia Tech (5-1) 1.1758 19. Michigan State (4-1) 1.0921 20. Michigan (5-0) 1.0837 21. Oklahoma State (4-1) 1.0824 22. UCF (4-1) 1.0474 23. Northern Illinois (5-0) 1.0386 24. Arizona (3-1) 1.0373 25. Texas A&M (4-1) 0.9322 pre:26. Wisconsin (3-2) 0.9318 27. Bowling Green (5-1) 0.9276 28. Georgia (4-1) 0.8960 29. Fresno State (5-0) 0.8658 30. Ball State (5-1) 0.8636 31. Maryland (4-1) 0.8427 32. Nebraska (4-1) 0.8003 33. Navy (3-1) 0.7864 34. Iowa (4-2) 0.7742 35. Marshall (3-2) 0.7524 36. Northwestern (4-1) 0.7231 37. East Carolina (4-1) 0.7114 38. Georgia Tech (3-2) 0.6754 39. South Carolina (4-1) 0.6720 40. Arizona State (3-2) 0.6612 41. Ohio U (4-1) 0.6533 42. Auburn (4-1) 0.6185 43. Utah State (3-3) 0.6145 44. Washington State (4-2) 0.6109 45. Oregon State (4-1) 0.6092 46. BYU (3-2) 0.5942 47. Rutgers (4-1) 0.5690 48. Boise State (3-2) 0.5585 49. Cincinnati (3-2) 0.5463 50. Louisiana-Lafayette (3-2) 0.4671 51. Penn State (3-2) 0.4480 52. Wyoming (3-2) 0.4369 53. Notre Dame (4-2) 0.4105 54. Tulane (4-2) 0.3950 55. Texas (3-2) 0.3666 56. NC State (3-2) 0.3579 57. Indiana (3-2) 0.3544 58. Utah (3-2) 0.3463 59. Old Dominion (4-2) 0.3453 60. USC (3-2) 0.3422 61. Pittsburgh (3-1) 0.3360 62. Ole Miss (3-2) 0.3026 63. Western Kentucky (4-2) 0.2933 64. Minnesota (4-2) 0.2643 65. Mississippi State (2-3) 0.2518 66. Toledo (3-3) 0.2349 67. Illinois (3-2) 0.2225 68. Duke (3-2) 0.2158 69. Boston College (3-2) 0.1982 70. Rice (3-2) 0.1614 71. Texas State (3-2) 0.1391 72. SUNY Buffalo (3-2) 0.1324 73. UNLV (3-2) 0.1206 74. TCU (2-3) 0.1123 75. Vanderbilt (3-3) 0.0564 76. Arkansas (3-3) 0.0547 77. Tennessee (3-3) 0.0128 78. Nevada (3-3) -0.0129 79. Syracuse (2-3) -0.0265 80. New Mexico (2-3) -0.0360 81. West Virginia (3-3) -0.0361 82. Wake Forest (3-3) -0.0370 83. North Texas (2-3) -0.0408 84. Middle Tennessee (3-3) -0.0445 85. Colorado (2-2) -0.0557 86. Arkansas State (2-3) -0.0828 87. Kansas (2-2) -0.1300 88. South Alabama (2-3) -0.1384 89. Iowa State (1-3) -0.1648 90. Memphis (1-3) -0.1878 91. San Jose State (2-3) -0.1934 92. Kansas State (2-3) -0.1987 93. Colorado State (2-3) -0.1999 94. Troy (3-3) -0.2067 95. Virginia (2-3) -0.2349 96. Army (2-4) -0.2554 97. Kentucky (1-4) -0.2815 98. Florida Atlantic (2-4) -0.3237 99. San Diego State (2-3) -0.3483 100. North Carolina (1-4) -0.3598 101. SMU (1-4) -0.3874 102. California (1-4) -0.4186 103. UTEP (1-4) -0.4187 104. Kent State (2-4) -0.4338 105. UTSA (2-4) -0.4342 106. Louisiana Tech (2-4) -0.4373 107. UAB (1-4) -0.4595 108. Purdue (1-4) -0.4905 109. Tulsa (1-4) -0.4948 110. Central Michigan (2-4) -0.4976 111. South Florida (1-4) -0.5123 112. Eastern Michigan (1-4) -0.5346 113. Florida Intl. (1-4) -0.5442 114. Connecticut (0-4) -0.5635 115. Louisiana-Monroe (2-4) -0.5645 116. Akron (1-5) -0.5702 pre:10. Air Force (1-5) -0.5856 9. Idaho (1-5) -0.6874 8. Massachusetts (0-5) -0.7285 7. Hawaii (0-5) -0.7292 6. Miami (OH) (0-5) -0.7551 5. Southern Miss (0-5) -0.7934 4. Temple (0-5) -0.8238 3. Western Michigan (0-6) -0.8984 2. New Mexico State (0-6) -1.0537 1. Georgia State (0-5) -1.1700 dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 20:14 on Oct 7, 2013 |
# ? Oct 7, 2013 20:12 |
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Duplicates-included DIVISIONB.CSV pastebin: http://pastebin.com/436iWbss Here's my rankings as of 10/12/2013. All games involving FBS teams are included, which means those FCS teams which play FBS teams are included, but ranked only on those games. This is... screwy, but I haven't got around to fixing it yet. For interpretation purposes I'd say to ignore FCS teams on this list. Oregon is way out front. Alabama stands at #3. I thought my poll was nuts for thinking Mizzou was as good as it did, but this weekend proved me wrong. Of course the poll immediately tests my resolve again with their ranking this week. code:
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# ? Oct 13, 2013 17:32 |
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Mukai Moon Poll Week 7: Missouri Winning Was Not An Upset Edition It's that time of year: The time I get to start crowing about getting things right! Always a special, special day in the heart of any moon-poller. Missouri vs. Georgia? I had Missouri by 3! Wisconsin-Northwestern? I had Wisconsin by 9.5! I'm... not sure how BYU is in the top 10 now, actually, that seems a bit hinky. But this is a time of CELEBRATION or something! On to the stats, and then I have the first Special Treat of the season. pre:1 'Oregon' 1.379 2 'Missouri' 1.354 3 'Alabama' 1.317 4 'Florida St.' 1.316 5 'LSU' 1.300 6 'Clemson' 1.230 7 'BYU' 1.203 8 'Texas Tech' 1.193 9 'Michigan St.' 1.185 10 'UCLA' 1.179 11 'Baylor' 1.177 12 'Virginia Tech' 1.174 13 'Stanford' 1.170 14 'Florida' 1.163 15 'South Carolina 1.162 16 'Wisconsin' 1.148 17 'Ball St.' 1.147 18 'Georgia' 1.147 19 'Arizona St.' 1.145 20 'Louisville' 1.138 21 'Miami (FL)' 1.133 22 'Washington' 1.132 23 'Oregon St.' 1.125 24 'Michigan' 1.112 25 'Ohio St.' 1.100 26 'Texas' 1.099 27 'Nebraska' 1.096 28 'Texas A&M' 1.094 29 'Utah' 1.092 30 'Marshall' 1.084 31 'Boise St.' 1.079 32 'Auburn' 1.074 33 'Maryland' 1.074 34 'Houston' 1.070 35 'Oklahoma' 1.063 36 'Notre Dame' 1.057 37 'Duke' 1.050 38 'Indiana' 1.034 39 'East Carolina' 1.031 40 'Western Ky.' 1.031 41 'Pittsburgh' 1.027 42 'Iowa' 1.026 43 'Oklahoma St.' 1.020 44 'Bowling Green' 1.014 45 'Ole Miss' 1.006 46 'TCU' 1.004 47 'Northern Ill.' 1.004 48 'Georgia Tech' 1.003 49 'Syracuse' 1.001 50 'Penn St.' 0.995 51 'Fresno St.' 0.989 52 'Mississippi St 0.984 53 'UCF' 0.984 54 'La.-Lafayette' 0.982 55 'North Texas' 0.974 56 'Tulane' 0.966 57 'Boston College 0.965 58 'Southern Cal' 0.965 59 'Rice' 0.955 60 'Tennessee' 0.954 61 'Rutgers' 0.949 62 'Utah St.' 0.946 63 'Memphis' 0.945 64 'Wake Forest' 0.939 65 'Ohio' 0.930 66 'Buffalo' 0.929 67 'Toledo' 0.927 68 'Wyoming' 0.925 69 'Washington St' 0.917 70 'UNLV' 0.913 71 'Vanderbilt' 0.913 72 'Minnesota' 0.907 73 'Illinois' 0.904 74 'West Virginia' 0.897 75 'Arizona' 0.890 76 'South Ala.' 0.890 77 'Virginia' 0.888 78 'Northwestern' 0.882 79 'Kansas St.' 0.881 80 'Kentucky' 0.878 81 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.878 82 'Arkansas' 0.876 83 'San Jose St.' 0.872 84 'Navy' 0.858 85 'Arkansas St.' 0.847 86 'Army' 0.832 87 'Iowa St.' 0.832 88 'Troy' 0.829 89 'La.-Monroe' 0.827 90 'Cincinnati' 0.824 91 'North Carolina 0.822 92 'San Diego St.' 0.816 93 'Kansas' 0.809 94 'UTSA' 0.808 95 'Central Mich.' 0.793 96 'Texas St.' 0.790 97 'North Car St.' 0.784 98 'Colorado St.' 0.783 99 'Colorado' 0.779 100 'Massachusetts' 0.776 101 'Nevada' 0.775 102 'New Mexico' 0.771 103 'Middle Tenn.' 0.763 104 'Kent St.' 0.762 105 'Tulsa' 0.717 106 'UAB' 0.713 107 'South Fla.' 0.697 108 'Louisiana Tech 0.690 109 'California' 0.685 110 'Air Force' 0.675 111 'Akron' 0.657 112 'SMU' 0.648 113 'Hawaii' 0.643 114 'Temple' 0.626 115 'Purdue' 0.624 116 'Southern Miss' 0.614 117 'FIU' 0.607 118 'Eastern Mich.' 0.580 119 'Connecticut' 0.574 120 'Idaho' 0.573 121 'UTEP' 0.569 122 'Miami (OH)' 0.533 123 'Western Mich.' 0.511 124 'New Mexico St. 0.483 125 'Georgia State' 0.439 AAC: Louisville* (12-0), Houston (10-2) ACC: Florida State* (13-0), Miami (11-2), Clemson (10-2), Virginia Tech (10-2) Big Ten: Michigan State* (12-1), Ohio State (11-1), Wisconsin (10-3), Michigan (10-2) Big 12: Baylor* (11-1), Texas Tech (10-2) CUSA: None Independents: None MAC: Ball State* (12-1) (this is not a typo) MWC: None (still not a typo; I'm not at all high on Fresno/Northern Ill.) Pac-12: Oregon* (13-0), UCLA (10-3) I am calling a Stanford collapse, because god their schedule is tough SEC: Alabama* (13-0), LSU (10-2), South Carolina (11-2), Missouri (11-1) Sun Belt: None So for BCS seedings, Alabama-Oregon is the #1-#2 game because I don't see FSU or Louisville leapfrogging either- though that set of outcomes would be delicious controversy. FSU is slotted automatically into the Rose, Baylor into the Fiesta, and Michigan State into the Rose. Including the #1-#2 replacements, BCS bowls are: NCG: Alabama-Oregon Sugar: (first pick)-(fourth pick) Rose: Michigan State-(second pick) Fiesta: Baylor-(fifth pick) Orange: Florida State-(third pick) Sugar grabs South Carolina as the most 'national' SEC 11 win team, screwing Missou a bit. For the second pick, UCLA barely scrapes into qualification, and the Rose snaps them up. The Orange has to choose between an undefeated Louisville and a super-mega-TV draw Ohio State, and this goes the way most of these picks go, OSU and mad TV dolla. Sugar takes Louisville. Fiesta has to choose between a lot of not great options; they basically can take one of the ACC also rans or Houston, since I don't expect Ball State to climb into the top 14. Miami it is! NCG: Alabama-Oregon Sugar: South Carolina-Louisville Rose: Michigan State-UCLA Fiesta: Baylor-Miami Orange: Florida State-Ohio State From there, the other bowls slot in with some wonkiness, but anything that allows Virginia Tech-Texas A&M in the Peach Bowl is a scenario I desperately want to happen; Manziel's Last Stand against a Bud Foster defense makes me start grinning madly. Full Bowl Projections are Here!
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# ? Oct 13, 2013 21:29 |
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Do you have a 10-2 TTU team in the Big XII #4 bowl? That seems... odd.
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# ? Oct 13, 2013 21:39 |
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kayakyakr posted:Do you have a 10-2 TTU team in the Big XII #4 bowl? That seems... odd. Yeah, but I figured bowls would sooner chase the BIG NAMES BIG BUCKS and so had Oklahoma and Texas going to better bowls with worse records.
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# ? Oct 13, 2013 21:43 |
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Mukaikubo posted:Yeah, but I figured bowls would sooner chase the BIG NAMES BIG BUCKS and so had Oklahoma and Texas going to better bowls with worse records. Hasn't really happened in the Big XII much. The 4-8 bowls trade around some (WVU went to the pinstripe last year because they were the closest team), but the top 3 (and a lot of times the top 5) usually take teams in order. Though if your predictor thinks that UT's going to lose only the one game against Baylor, then it's possible they head to the Cotton. Hilarious, but possible
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# ? Oct 13, 2013 21:59 |
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kayakyakr posted:Hasn't really happened in the Big XII much. The 4-8 bowls trade around some (WVU went to the pinstripe last year because they were the closest team), but the top 3 (and a lot of times the top 5) usually take teams in order. Kansas St got screwed two years in a row iirc, bumped from bowl #2 to like #4. Although I think the first time it happened, it resulted in the BCS instituting a new rule. I don't remember the exact circumstances because my memory is abysmal.
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# ? Oct 14, 2013 03:05 |
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regulargonzalez posted:Kansas St got screwed two years in a row iirc, bumped from bowl #2 to like #4. Although I think the first time it happened, it resulted in the BCS instituting a new rule. I was trying to find out where you were talking about so I went through their bowls: '12 went to the fiesta '11 went to the cotton '10 went to the pinstripe (at 7-6) '06 went to the texas (at 7-6) '03 went to the fiesta (conf champions) '02 went to the holiday (tied for 2nd with 2 other teams, lowest rank) '01 went to the insight (at 6-6) '00 went to the cotton (at 11-3) Here's where you were thinking: '99 went to the Holiday (#3) at (11-1). They were left out of the cotton to a Texas team that lost the Big XII championship. '98 went to the Alamo (#4) at 11-2. This is the game that caused the BCS to institute the Kansas State rule that says that the #3 or #4 teams are automatically in. Dunno if the cotton or the alamo has taken more than 1 outside their standing since.
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# ? Oct 14, 2013 03:36 |
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In the best telemarketing tradition, BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE! from the Mukai Moon Poll. Using the predictions and the remaining schedule for each of the 15 remaining undefeated teams, I came up with an estimate of how likely each current unbeaten record is to remain that way! Keeping in mind that this moon poll cannot see things like "Missouri's starting QB is gone", it should give a pretty good handle on just how hard it is to go undefeated even when you get halfway there. pre:Oregon 26.7% Louisville 24.5% Missouri 19.1% Florida State 15.2% Alabama 13.3% Texas Tech 11.1% Baylor 7.8% Clemson 6.9% Northern Ill. 4.7% Fresno State 3.9% Houston 3.5% Ohio State 3.0% Miami (FL) 0.6% UCLA 0.5% -------------------- Nobody 21.3% Only One team 35.7% Mukaikubo fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Oct 14, 2013 |
# ? Oct 14, 2013 15:20 |
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Week 7 Top 25code:
code:
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# ? Oct 14, 2013 21:34 |
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 8: Ten Teams Are Still At 1-AA Level or Worse Edition ...four of which this poll wouldn't favor *at home* against a generic 1-AA team. FSU's beatdown of Clemson predictably shot them into the top; if there's one thing it loves, it's one good team wrecking another. Alabama finally relinquishes its deathgrip on #3, staying behind Missouri- again, this rating cannot adjust for dead QBs or injuries or anything like that. Arizona State shoots up to grab a top five spot over Stanford on the back of a dominant win, and BYU- WHAT ARE YOU DOING BYU GET OUT OF HERE *chases the midmajors away with a broom* pre:1 'Florida St.' 1.382 2 'Oregon' 1.377 3 'Missouri' 1.376 4 'Alabama' 1.342 5 'Arizona St.' 1.248 6 'Stanford' 1.222 7 'LSU' 1.214 8 'Baylor' 1.212 9 'BYU' 1.208 10 'Wisconsin' 1.187 11 'Texas Tech' 1.183 12 'Michigan St.' 1.178 13 'Virginia Tech' 1.151 14 'Michigan' 1.149 15 'Oregon St.' 1.140 16 'Miami (FL)' 1.139 17 'Ball St.' 1.138 18 'Florida' 1.130 19 'Ohio St.' 1.130 20 'Auburn' 1.126 21 'Clemson' 1.123 22 'Texas' 1.111 23 'Georgia Tech' 1.105 24 'UCLA' 1.102 25 'La.-Lafayette' 1.092 26 'Oklahoma' 1.091 27 'Ole Miss' 1.083 28 'Boise St.' 1.077 29 'Notre Dame' 1.077 30 'Duke' 1.074 31 'Fresno St.' 1.072 32 'Georgia' 1.071 33 'Oklahoma St.' 1.070 34 'Houston' 1.065 35 'South Carolina 1.065 36 'Marshall' 1.059 37 'Texas A&M' 1.056 38 'Wake Forest' 1.046 39 'Northern Ill.' 1.044 40 'Louisville' 1.038 41 'East Carolina' 1.038 42 'UCF' 1.037 43 'Washington' 1.037 44 'Nebraska' 1.027 45 'Iowa' 1.014 46 'Utah St.' 0.997 47 'Tennessee' 0.997 48 'Arizona' 0.988 49 'Buffalo' 0.987 50 'Indiana' 0.986 51 'Utah' 0.986 52 'Vanderbilt' 0.983 53 'Southern Cal' 0.975 54 'North Texas' 0.973 55 'Pittsburgh' 0.968 56 'Rice' 0.960 57 'Ohio' 0.951 58 'Mississippi St 0.945 59 'TCU' 0.944 60 'Western Ky.' 0.934 61 'Bowling Green' 0.933 62 'Tulane' 0.926 63 'South Ala.' 0.923 64 'Colorado St.' 0.922 65 'Minnesota' 0.922 66 'Maryland' 0.921 67 'Washington St. 0.917 68 'Toledo' 0.916 69 'Penn St.' 0.908 70 'Boston College 0.908 71 'Kansas St.' 0.893 72 'West Virginia' 0.891 73 'Syracuse' 0.882 74 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.875 75 'Kentucky' 0.864 76 'Cincinnati' 0.855 77 'Navy' 0.851 78 'Virginia' 0.851 79 'Illinois' 0.850 80 'Arkansas' 0.849 81 'Colorado' 0.846 82 'UNLV' 0.846 83 'Northwestern' 0.841 84 'Arkansas St.' 0.841 85 'Troy' 0.830 86 'La.-Monroe' 0.829 87 'Rutgers' 0.825 88 'Memphis' 0.816 89 'North Carolina 0.810 90 'UTSA' 0.804 91 'Iowa St.' 0.801 92 'Kansas' 0.793 93 'San Jose St.' 0.790 94 'Texas St.' 0.787 95 'SMU' 0.776 96 'Nevada' 0.769 97 'Temple' 0.768 98 'North Car. St. 0.764 99 'Wyoming' 0.753 100 'Central Mich.' 0.745 101 'Tulsa' 0.722 102 'Kent St.' 0.722 103 'San Diego St.' 0.717 104 'Middle Tenn.' 0.714 105 'Massachusetts' 0.712 106 'UAB' 0.710 107 'New Mexico' 0.702 108 'Army' 0.699 109 'South Fla.' 0.697 110 'Akron' 0.681 111 'Louisiana Tech 0.669 112 'California' 0.660 113 'Air Force' 0.658 114 'Hawaii' 0.638 115 'Purdue' 0.629 116 'FIU' 0.600 117 'Southern Miss' 0.585 118 'Idaho' 0.578 119 'UTEP' 0.569 120 'Eastern Mich.' 0.543 121 'Connecticut' 0.540 122 'Miami (OH)' 0.509 123 'Western Mich.' 0.504 124 'New Mexico St. 0.450 125 'Georgia State' 0.439 BCS projection: Teams Eligible for BCS (roughly 10+ wins for a major conference, 12+ wins for a midmajor) AAC: UCF (11-1*), Louisville (11-1) ACC: FSU (13-0*), VT (10-3), Clemson (10-2), Miami (10-2) Big 10: Michigan State (12-1*), Ohio State (11-2), Wisconsin (10-2), Michigan (10-2) Big 12: Baylor (11-1*), Texas Tech (10-2) CUSA: None Independents: None MAC: Ball State (12-1*) MWC: None Pac 12: Oregon (13-0*), Stanford (10-2), Arizona State (10-3) SEC: Alabama (13-0*), Missouri (12-1), Auburn (10-2) Sun Belt: None Autobids and #1-#2 make it: Fiesta: Baylor vs. (5th pick) Orange: FSU vs. (3rd pick) Rose: (2nd pick) vs. Michigan State Sugar: (1st pick) vs. (4th pick) NCG: Alabama vs. Oregon Sugar jumps on Missouri without hesitation, and similarly Rose grabs a 10-2 Stanford. The Orange has the first interesting choice. Since I don't expect a 12-1 Ball State to make the top 14, the field of viable choices are: UCF (must be picked by someone), Louisville, VT, Clemson, Miami, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas Tech. Of those, the Orange goes for the biggest money matchup and grabs Ohio State. The Sugar, eying UCF and shaking its head, basically chooses between an ACC team and Texas Tech, and opts for Clemson to fill local seats. (I could and almost did argue myself into Miami.. we'll see how Clemson responds to the beatdown). That leaves the Fiesta with UCF. Fiesta: Baylor vs. UCF Orange: FSU vs. Ohio State Rose: Stanford vs. Michigan State Sugar: Missouri vs. Clemson NCG: Alabama vs. Oregon Remainder of projected bowls is here: Week 8 Bowl Projections. Some notable games: Texas-LSU Cotton Bowl Texas A&M-Miami Peach Bowl Northern Illinois-Notre Dame Little Caesars Bowl And the final extracurricular, updated Going Undefeated Odds! That week helped a lot of teams out, none more than FSU which is approaching a coin flip to go 13-0. There's also almost a coin flip of either SEC team going 13-0 and locking up one slot in the NCG, which is probably underestimating things. I like Alabama significantly more than the numbers here do! Also, we're up to about a 1-in-3 chance of an undefeated BCS buster... and 11% odds of Chaos Year giving us no undefeated teams. pre:Florida State 40.8% Missouri 29.3% Oregon 25.9% Fresno State 23.9% Alabama 18.6% Baylor 12.2% Northern Ill. 11.5% Texas Tech 9.6% Ohio State 8.5% Miami (FL) 0.4%
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# ? Oct 20, 2013 17:37 |
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DIVISIONB.CSV pastebin: http://pastebin.com/5C3MBiMm Upsets either mean the favored team wasn't as good as you thought, the underdog was better than you thought, or some combination. After it all comes out in the wash: code:
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# ? Oct 20, 2013 19:56 |
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Here's week 8. code:
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# ? Oct 21, 2013 21:44 |
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DIVISIONB.CSV pastebin: http://pastebin.com/nb7mDvPk Week 9. My algorithm doesn't much penalize a team for a close loss to another good team, so Mizzou is still somehow #5. LSU/TAMU is now a wash - that'll be an interesting game. Unfortunately, Bama has now pretty much inched out of near-equal to prohibitive favorite with respect to LSU. code:
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# ? Oct 27, 2013 21:17 |
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 9: The Three Best Teams Are Finally My Three Best Teams Edition *cracks knuckles* Took you long enough to concur that Bama, Oregon, and FSU are the three best teams in the nation, MMP. Welcome to reality. Good thing there's nothing else screw- *looks at BYU #6, TEXAS #13, and Duke ranked above Texas Tech, vomits* pre:1 'Oregon' 1.404 2 'Florida St.' 1.388 3 'Alabama' 1.376 4 'Missouri' 1.253 5 'Stanford' 1.240 6 'BYU' 1.235 7 'Baylor' 1.233 8 'LSU' 1.224 9 'Michigan' 1.179 10 'Ohio St.' 1.179 11 'Auburn' 1.176 12 'South Carolina 1.174 13 'Texas' 1.173 14 'Arizona St.' 1.153 15 'Miami (FL)' 1.149 16 'Oklahoma' 1.144 17 'Ball St.' 1.144 18 'Clemson' 1.144 19 'Texas A&M' 1.142 20 'Houston' 1.131 21 'Duke' 1.129 22 'Florida' 1.122 23 'La.-Lafayette' 1.118 24 'Texas Tech' 1.115 25 'Georgia Tech' 1.107 26 'Ole Miss' 1.106 27 'Oklahoma St.' 1.103 28 'Virginia Tech' 1.093 29 'Oregon St.' 1.091 30 'Notre Dame' 1.087 31 'Michigan St.' 1.085 32 'Wisconsin' 1.076 33 'Fresno St.' 1.073 34 'Louisville' 1.065 35 'UCLA' 1.063 36 'Northern Ill.' 1.057 37 'UCF' 1.050 38 'Arizona' 1.046 39 'East Carolina' 1.044 40 'Wake Forest' 1.041 41 'Washington' 1.037 42 'Southern Cal' 1.035 43 'Boise St.' 1.035 44 'Iowa' 1.020 45 'Buffalo' 1.018 46 'Rice' 1.005 47 'North Texas' 0.999 48 'Minnesota' 0.996 49 'Kansas St.' 0.987 50 'Marshall' 0.985 51 'Utah St.' 0.985 52 'Georgia' 0.979 53 'Indiana' 0.976 54 'Tennessee' 0.969 55 'Toledo' 0.958 56 'Mississippi St 0.952 57 'North Carolina 0.950 58 'Ohio' 0.950 59 'Nebraska' 0.945 60 'Pittsburgh' 0.933 61 'Tulane' 0.930 62 'Colorado St.' 0.919 63 'Troy' 0.917 64 'Utah' 0.915 65 'TCU' 0.903 66 'Vanderbilt' 0.891 67 'Bowling Green' 0.889 68 'South Ala.' 0.889 69 'Maryland' 0.888 70 'Syracuse' 0.884 71 'Navy' 0.883 72 'UNLV' 0.871 73 'Western Ky.' 0.863 74 'UTSA' 0.863 75 'Penn St.' 0.856 76 'Kentucky' 0.856 77 'Virginia' 0.856 78 'Arkansas' 0.848 79 'Cincinnati' 0.846 80 'La.-Monroe' 0.844 81 'Northwestern' 0.839 82 'Washington St. 0.836 83 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.825 84 'Arkansas St.' 0.825 85 'Texas St.' 0.823 86 'SMU' 0.810 87 'Illinois' 0.807 88 'San Jose St.' 0.802 89 'West Virginia' 0.793 90 'Middle Tenn.' 0.793 91 'Boston College 0.792 92 'Colorado' 0.780 93 'Rutgers' 0.777 94 'Kansas' 0.773 95 'North Caro. St 0.766 96 'Iowa St.' 0.758 97 'Central Mich.' 0.751 98 'Nevada' 0.746 99 'Memphis' 0.746 100 'Wyoming' 0.739 101 'Louisiana Tech 0.729 102 'Temple' 0.727 103 'Tulsa' 0.719 104 'San Diego St.' 0.711 105 'New Mexico' 0.705 106 'Kent St.' 0.694 107 'Army' 0.690 108 'Akron' 0.678 109 'South Fla.' 0.656 110 'California' 0.643 111 'UAB' 0.641 112 'Hawaii' 0.639 113 'Air Force' 0.631 114 'Massachusetts' 0.626 115 'Purdue' 0.623 116 'Western Mich.' 0.592 117 'Idaho' 0.560 118 'UTEP' 0.557 119 'Southern Miss. 0.549 120 'Eastern Mich.' 0.527 121 'Connecticut' 0.525 122 'FIU' 0.520 123 'New Mexico St. 0.505 124 'Miami (OH)' 0.502 125 'Georgia State' 0.415 MMP Odds Of Going Undefeated Into Bowl Season, Week 9 FSU remains most likely to get to bowl season without a loss, but the Ducks are charging hard behind them. Meanwhile, nobody loves Miami. Poor Miami. pre:Florida State 44.4% Oregon 41.8% Alabama 32.7% Fresno State 31.0% Ohio State 20.7% Baylor 14.4% Northern Ill. 12.0% Miami (FL) 0.8% I'm actually moving them over to our Bowl Projections thread! ...but for old time's sake: Fiesta Bowl: Baylor-Fresno State Orange Bowl: Florida State-Louisville Rose Bowl: Stanford-Ohio State Sugar Bowl: Missouri-Michigan NCG: Alabama-Oregon
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# ? Oct 27, 2013 22:19 |
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My top 10 looks pretty good. Oh, hello UCF and Northern Ill. Nevermindcode:
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# ? Oct 28, 2013 20:15 |
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Back. Looks like mid-major madness is setting in again...three AAC teams, two MAC, one MWC, and whatever we classify BYU as anymore.pre:Rank Team Wins Losses Final Score 1 Oregon 8 0 3.2088 2 Alabama 8 0 3.1820 3 Florida State 7 0 2.9549 4 Ohio State 8 0 2.6748 5 Baylor 7 0 2.4937 6 Missouri 7 1 2.3290 7 Stanford 7 1 2.2970 8 Louisville 7 1 2.1750 9 Miami (FL) 7 0 2.1098 10 Oklahoma 7 1 1.9810 11 Clemson 7 1 1.9506 12 Auburn 7 1 1.8781 13 Michigan State 7 1 1.8521 14 LSU 7 2 1.7694 15 UCF 6 1 1.7205 16 Oklahoma State 6 1 1.6981 17 Arizona State 5 2 1.6931 18 Houston 6 1 1.6857 19 Northern Ill. 8 0 1.6111 20 Texas Tech 7 1 1.5589 21 Wisconsin 5 2 1.5475 22 BYU 6 2 1.4219 23 Virginia Tech 6 2 1.3668 24 Ball State 8 1 1.3635 25 Fresno State 7 0 1.3395 26 UCLA 5 2 1.2890 27 Michigan 6 1 1.2853 28 South Carolina 6 2 1.2434 29 Texas 5 2 1.2409 30 Oregon State 6 2 1.1912 31 Notre Dame 6 2 1.1820 32 Arizona 5 2 1.1639 33 Texas A&M 6 2 1.1313 34 Duke 6 2 1.0640 35 Minnesota 6 2 1.0182 36 Washington 5 3 1.0121 37 SUNY Buffalo 6 2 0.9691 38 Louisiana-Laf. 5 2 0.9572 39 Ole Miss 5 3 0.9413 40 Rice 6 2 0.9285 41 Cincinnati 5 2 0.8540 42 East Carolina 5 2 0.8514 43 Tulane 6 2 0.8318 44 Ohio U 6 2 0.8249 45 Nebraska 5 2 0.8230 46 Georgia Tech 5 3 0.8166 47 Iowa 5 3 0.7888 48 USC 5 3 0.7295 49 North Texas 5 3 0.7263 50 Bowling Green 5 3 0.7027 51 Utah State 4 4 0.6482 52 Toledo 5 3 0.6272 53 Boise State 5 3 0.6262 54 Georgia 4 3 0.6151 55 Miss. State 4 3 0.5833 56 Marshall 4 3 0.5685 57 Florida 4 3 0.5475 58 Old Dominion 5 3 0.4654 59 Maryland 5 3 0.3851 60 Texas State 5 3 0.3736 61 Navy 4 3 0.3687 62 UNLV 5 3 0.3420 63 Penn State 4 3 0.2998 64 Vanderbilt 4 4 0.2467 65 Pittsburgh 4 3 0.2253 66 Tennessee 4 4 0.2041 67 San Jose State 4 3 0.1806 68 Rutgers 4 3 0.1605 69 Northwestern 4 4 0.1493 70 Troy 5 3 0.1413 71 Wyoming 4 4 0.1166 72 Wake Forest 4 4 0.1131 73 Utah 4 4 0.1111 74 Washington St. 4 4 0.0761 75 Colorado State 4 4 0.0669 76 Middle Tenn. 4 4 0.0359 77 Arkansas State 3 4 -0.0458 78 Indiana 3 4 -0.0474 79 NC State 3 4 -0.0642 80 Western Ky. 4 4 -0.0667 81 West Virginia 3 5 -0.0786 82 Boston College 3 4 -0.0958 83 TCU 3 5 -0.1204 84 Syracuse 3 4 -0.1243 85 South Alabama 3 4 -0.1264 86 Kansas State 3 4 -0.1401 87 Colorado 3 4 -0.1514 88 Illinois 3 4 -0.1843 89 SMU 3 4 -0.2019 90 Nevada 3 5 -0.2091 91 La.-Monroe 4 4 -0.2250 92 Army 3 5 -0.2293 93 North Carolina 2 5 -0.2546 94 Arkansas 3 5 -0.2854 95 San Diego State 3 4 -0.3035 96 Kansas 2 5 -0.3424 97 Louisiana Tech 3 5 -0.3955 98 Virginia 2 6 -0.4009 99 Central Mi. 3 5 -0.4062 100 UTSA 3 5 -0.4111 101 New Mexico 2 5 -0.4187 102 Kentucky 1 6 -0.4495 103 Memphis 1 5 -0.4712 104 UAB 2 5 -0.4828 105 Tulsa 2 5 -0.4894 106 Florida Atl. 2 6 -0.5173 107 South Florida 2 5 -0.5357 108 Iowa State 1 6 -0.5361 109 Purdue 1 6 -0.6202 110 California 1 7 -0.6789 111 Akron 2 7 -0.6955 112 Kent State 2 7 -0.7119 113 Temple 1 7 -0.8036 114 UTEP 1 6 -0.8046 115 Air Force 1 7 -0.8529 116 Idaho 1 7 -0.8568 117 Massachusetts 1 7 -0.8900 118 Connecticut 0 7 -0.9122 119 Eastern Mich. 1 7 -0.9211 120 Florida Intl. 1 6 -0.9379 121 Hawaii 0 7 -0.9614 122 Southern Miss 0 7 -1.0851 123 New Mexico St. 1 7 -1.1164 124 Miami (OH) 0 8 -1.2027 125 Western Mich. 1 8 -1.2075 126 Georgia State 0 8 -1.6238
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# ? Oct 28, 2013 20:35 |
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 10: FSU Separation Edition Beat a good team decisively, get mad rating points. No mystery! Now FSU is #1 with a bullet in these rankings. More surprising is that Alabama is slipping, largely as an artifact of the teams they've beaten covering themselves in whatever the opposite of glory is. Also... BYU at #7 is, let's just not talk about it, okay? And also Houston outranking Baylor. I understand not why. pre:1 'Florida St.' 1.425 2 'Oregon' 1.323 3 'Missouri' 1.281 4 'Alabama' 1.251 5 'Michigan St.' 1.201 6 'Oklahoma St.' 1.195 7 'BYU' 1.193 8 'Ohio St.' 1.190 9 'South Carolina 1.185 10 'Auburn' 1.183 11 'Arizona St.' 1.180 12 'Clemson' 1.175 13 'Stanford' 1.165 14 'Texas' 1.164 15 'Wisconsin' 1.160 16 'Texas A&M' 1.137 17 'Southern Cal' 1.136 18 'LSU' 1.136 19 'Houston' 1.135 20 'Baylor' 1.133 21 'La.-Lafayette' 1.118 22 'Miami (FL)' 1.115 23 'Georgia Tech' 1.103 24 'Duke' 1.098 25 'Notre Dame' 1.093 26 'Ole Miss' 1.092 27 'Boise St.' 1.077 28 'UCLA' 1.071 29 'Fresno St.' 1.069 30 'Northern Ill.' 1.066 31 'Florida' 1.061 32 'Michigan' 1.061 33 'Ball St.' 1.045 34 'Arizona' 1.045 35 'East Carolina' 1.041 36 'North Texas' 1.040 37 'Georgia' 1.037 38 'Oklahoma' 1.036 39 'Kansas St.' 1.029 40 'Utah St.' 1.018 41 'Minnesota' 1.017 42 'Texas Tech' 1.012 43 'Louisville' 1.005 44 'Buffalo' 1.005 45 'Marshall' 0.996 46 'Washington' 0.996 47 'Virginia Tech' 0.991 48 'Oregon St.' 0.979 49 'UCF' 0.976 50 'Syracuse' 0.973 51 'Toledo' 0.960 52 'North Carolina 0.960 53 'Iowa' 0.953 54 'Rice' 0.946 55 'Indiana' 0.945 56 'Nebraska' 0.941 57 'Wake Forest' 0.938 58 'Mississippi St 0.934 59 'Tennessee' 0.933 60 'Pittsburgh' 0.930 61 'Ohio' 0.928 62 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.928 63 'La.-Monroe' 0.924 64 'UTSA' 0.905 65 'Boston College 0.891 66 'Kentucky' 0.891 67 'Cincinnati' 0.886 68 'Vanderbilt' 0.886 69 'Utah' 0.885 70 'Navy' 0.882 71 'Bowling Green' 0.880 72 'Colorado St.' 0.880 73 'San Jose St.' 0.880 74 'Penn St.' 0.861 75 'West Virginia' 0.860 76 'Arkansas St.' 0.856 77 'Northwestern' 0.848 78 'Western Ky.' 0.848 79 'Tulane' 0.835 80 'TCU' 0.835 81 'South Ala.' 0.834 82 'Texas St.' 0.832 83 'Arkansas' 0.827 84 'Troy' 0.810 85 'Virginia' 0.810 86 'Maryland' 0.801 87 'Illinois' 0.798 88 'Washington St. 0.796 89 'Middle Tenn.' 0.795 90 'SMU' 0.794 91 'UNLV' 0.783 92 'Rutgers' 0.779 93 'North Car St.' 0.760 94 'Colorado' 0.757 95 'Kansas' 0.755 96 'Central Mich.' 0.745 97 'Nevada' 0.739 98 'Wyoming' 0.739 99 'San Diego St.' 0.722 100 'Temple' 0.718 101 'Louisiana Tech 0.713 102 'Akron' 0.712 103 'Air Force' 0.709 104 'Iowa St.' 0.696 105 'New Mexico' 0.695 106 'Memphis' 0.690 107 'South Fla.' 0.660 108 'Kent St.' 0.646 109 'Tulsa' 0.646 110 'UAB' 0.644 111 'California' 0.639 112 'Purdue' 0.617 113 'Army' 0.616 114 'Hawaii' 0.608 115 'Massachusetts' 0.603 116 'Idaho' 0.537 117 'UTEP' 0.533 118 'Western Mich.' 0.530 119 'Connecticut' 0.524 120 'Southern Miss' 0.524 121 'FIU' 0.506 122 'Miami (OH)' 0.504 123 'Eastern Mich.' 0.504 124 'New Mexico St. 0.502 125 'Georgia State' 0.416 pre:Florida State 67.4% Oregon 47.0% Fresno State 28.5% Ohio State 23.9% Alabama 23.0% Baylor 23.0% Northern Ill. 19.3% FSU-Oregon NCG Ohio State-Alabama Rose Bowl LSU-Texas Cotton Bowl And more!
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# ? Nov 3, 2013 16:17 |
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DIVISIONB.CSV: http://pastebin.com/MPCLXXX7 Bama and Ohio State can take a long walk on a short pier. Week 10: code:
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# ? Nov 4, 2013 01:47 |
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# ? May 4, 2024 11:44 |
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Mukaikubo posted:And also Houston outranking Baylor. I understand not why. Do you figure turnovers into your poll? Houston is so far ahead of the rest of FBS in turnover metrics it might create weirdness.
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# ? Nov 4, 2013 02:21 |