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Miltank posted:I would be shocked if these videos aren't heavily influenced by COD quick scoping videos. All I know is that the glowy spinning HUD graphics make watching them and seeing details extremely difficult.
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Dec 21, 2013 21:40
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Seeing it's the time of year for end of year lists, I've decided to do my own of videos from Syria. Part one is here.
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Dec 21, 2013 21:46
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More from what's shaping up to be the comedic event of 2014:quote:An investigative judge referred Saturday morning ousted president Mohamed Morsi and 132 co-defendants to criminal court for escaping from Wadi Al-Natroun Prison during the January uprising of 2011. "Looting livestock, poultry and weapons?" What was Morsi doing, setting chickens on fire and throwing them at cops?
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Dec 21, 2013 21:58
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What's that part about giving up some of the Sinai Peninsula for Palestinians? I've never heard of that before. How would that work? Giving them Egyptian citizenships?
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Dec 21, 2013 22:33
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What are the chances of Erdogan completely abandoning the rule of law and seizing absolute power for himself?
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Dec 21, 2013 22:45
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Y-Hat posted:What are the chances of Erdogan completely abandoning the rule of law and seizing absolute power for himself? It's basically what has happened anyway. In other news, 25 high-ranking police chiefs in Istanbul have been given new postings.
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Dec 21, 2013 22:46
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suboptimal posted:More from what's shaping up to be the comedic event of 2014: I laughed.
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Dec 21, 2013 22:50
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Y-Hat posted:What are the chances of Erdogan completely abandoning the rule of law and seizing absolute power for himself? Incredibly unlikely. His *party* managed about half the popular vote...which implies that he's got at least half the country opposing him if he attempts to seize power, even assuming his party lines up behind him. Beyond that, the military is unlikely to support such a move.
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Dec 21, 2013 22:52
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Demiurge4 posted:What's that part about giving up some of the Sinai Peninsula for Palestinians? I've never heard of that before. How would that work? Giving them Egyptian citizenships? It's all bullshit. For all the bloviating talk of the valiant Egyptian Army's heroic recapture of the Sinai in the 1973 war (yet a curious omission of the Israelis retaking it and holding it until 1982), every Egyptian government has treated much of the Sinai's Bedouin population like poo poo. This includes trucking in Cairenes and others from the Nile Delta to work at the resorts, prohibiting the Bedouin from owning property, and mass-arresting them whenever something goes sideways in the Peninsula. The whole "MB plans to give Sinai to Gaza" is bullshit. Hamas had been banking on a significant bolster to their international status with Morsi's regime (Hamas was widely inspired by the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood), but the only real thing they got was Egypt diplomatically intervening to prevent Israel from staging a ground incursion into Gaza during the last war in November 2012 and the occasional reopening of the Rafah Border Crossing, but overall, no real easing of the blockade. This is the Egyptian military throwing all kinds of poo poo at Morsi, knowing that it's all going to stick and he'll never breathe a breath of free air again- that is if he isn't executed.
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Dec 21, 2013 23:07
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Warbadger posted:Incredibly unlikely. His *party* managed about half the popular vote...which implies that he's got at least half the country opposing him if he attempts to seize power, even assuming his party lines up behind him. Beyond that, the military is unlikely to support such a move. It has already happened though? Turkey is basically a police state with a thin veneer of modern rule of law covering up Erdoğan basically doing what he wants. The army's top brass has been gutted, and Erdoğan has made it clear he no longer gives a poo poo about people who don't vote for him. Also it should be stated that the AKP got around 40% of the vote, with the rest of the votes being tacked on as a peculiarity of the Turkish electoral system.
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Dec 21, 2013 23:08
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suboptimal posted:It's all bullshit. For all the bloviating talk of the valiant Egyptian Army's heroic recapture of the Sinai in the 1973 war (yet a curious omission of the Israelis retaking it and holding it until 1982), every Egyptian government has treated much of the Sinai's Bedouin population like poo poo. This includes trucking in Cairenes and others from the Nile Delta to work at the resorts, prohibiting the Bedouin from owning property, and mass-arresting them whenever something goes sideways in the Peninsula. How to make a Martyr: 101.
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Dec 21, 2013 23:10
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Yeah, Erdogan abandoned rule of law a long time ago. But seizing absolute power? The only bit of legitimacy Erdogan still has is the fact that he won the national elections handily three times in a row. That's what he constantly reminds us of when he is challenged. To abandon elections means abandoning the whole platform he stands on. He would be nothing but a tyrant and a deeply resented one at that. And besides I don't really see a serious competitor that can unseat him in elections. Maybe someone will emerge after the 2014 local elections... fspades fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Dec 21, 2013 |
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Dec 21, 2013 23:10
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fspades posted:Yeah, Erdogan abandoned rule of law a long time ago. But seizing absolute power? The only bit of legitimacy Erdogan still has is the fact that he won the national elections handily three times in a row. That's what he constantly reminds us of when he is challenged. To abandon elections means abandoning the whole platform he stands on. He would be nothing but a tyrant and a deeply resented one at that. Eh, at this point I wouldn't put it past Erdoğan that he'd resort to shenanigans during the next election. Also smart money on his most serious competitor is on Mustafa Sarıgül. Even though many CHP voters resent him, he has the "at least not Erdoğan" factor going for him and the center-right likes him. Along with Mansur Yavaş, who has been chosen as CHP's mayoral candidate for Ankara and also appeals to center-right voters, they could wrest control of the two most important cities from the AKP. Yavaş seems like a guaranteed winner, Istanbul will be a tougher - and the deciding - battle.
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Dec 21, 2013 23:21
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The Brown Menace posted:It has already happened though? It really hasn't happened at all. In regards to the military: it's a volunteer military and not tied to Erdogan or his party in any extraordinary way. If Edogan made a power grab and abandoned all claims to legitimacy there is NOTHING preventing the military (or at least enough of it) from bringing down the hammer on him, if only to avoid creating a long and bloody civil war they'd be forced to fight for him.
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Dec 21, 2013 23:26
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The Brown Menace posted:Eh, at this point I wouldn't put it past Erdoğan that he'd resort to shenanigans during the next election. Yeah, you are right and by "someone" I was really thinking about Sarigül in my mind. I don't know how I feel about that to be quite honest. It feels like replacing one corrupt center-right conservative shitheel with another. But I guess that's just the story of Turkish politics. Oh and today a senior police chief of Anti-smuggling and Organized Crime Unit was found dead in his car in Ankara. He received a gunshot wound to the head. The police ruled suicide. fspades fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Dec 22, 2013 |
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Dec 21, 2013 23:50
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fspades posted:It feels like replacing one corrupt center-right conservative shitheel with another. But I guess that's just the story of Turkish politics. It seems to be the story of global politics these days. Today is the 25th anniversary of Lockerbie - and apparently there is talk of another investigation - will anyone be surprised if rumors of a Syrian hand in the attack are suddenly made official?
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Dec 22, 2013 00:01
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Warbadger posted:It really hasn't happened at all. In regards to the military: it's a volunteer military and not tied to Erdogan or his party in any extraordinary way. If Edogan made a power grab and abandoned all claims to legitimacy there is NOTHING preventing the military (or at least enough of it) from bringing down the hammer on him, if only to avoid creating a long and bloody civil war they'd be forced to fight for him.
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Dec 22, 2013 00:04
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Warbadger posted:It really hasn't happened at all. Protesting against Erdoğan or the government is de facto illegal, despite it being a constitutional right. Holdings close to the AKP get their tax debts reduced to comically small fractions of what they originally were, or forgiven entirely, while holdings on bad terms with the AKP get slapped with more and more tax fines and rigorous inspections (Koç Holding). Erdoğan is right now killing off a graft probe he himself is implicated in by way of Ali Ağaoğlu. Every major ribbon-cutting event of things built with taxpayer money turns into an impromptu party rally. He has directly violated the constitution by attacking religious minorities and interfering with people's personal lives. Television stations which are even a little critical of Erdoğan or the AKP, or which simply show police violence, get slapped with bankrupting fines by RTÜK. Literally every part of the state has become a weapon in his arsenal. Find a single person who'd dare prosecute him. I don't know how much more "seize power" you can get, other than declaring elections outright illegal. But he won't have to, because Turkey will be using the electronic SEÇSİS voting system for the next election, based on an electronic voting system that has been shelved for flaws and possible openness to fraud in countries like Germany. Couple this with CHP's "e-seçmen" project where people could look up voters registered to their address on the SEÇSİS system, which turned up a shitton of irregularities like imaginary people being registered to households, and the population of a household being triple what it actually is etc. Warbadger posted:In regards to the military: it's a volunteer military and not tied to Erdogan or his party in any extraordinary way. If Edogan made a power grab and abandoned all claims to legitimacy there is NOTHING preventing the military (or at least enough of it) from bringing down the hammer on him, if only to avoid creating a long and bloody civil war they'd be forced to fight for him. First of all it's not a volunteer military. It's largely conscription-based. What prevents the military from staging a coup is that all top-level brass with the will to do so have been sentenced to lengthy prison sentences. Literally the former head of the Turkish armed forces has been convicted as a member of a terrorist organization on trumped-up charges. If Turkey descends down into typical middle east levels of chaos (which I find highly unlikely), the army would probably fracture along ideological lines rather than stage a coup.
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Dec 22, 2013 00:09
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McDowell posted:It seems to be the story of global politics these days. I don't see why there would need to be another investigation, unless you subscribe to the belief that the admission by the Libyans and statement from the Gaddafi era minister of justice that Ghaddafi personally ordered the bombing was just another effort by the West to smear the otherwise stirling reputation of famous humanitarian and man of the people Muammar Ghaddafi
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Dec 22, 2013 00:09
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fspades posted:Yeah, you are right and by "someone" I was really thinking about Sarigül in my mind. I don't know how I feel about that to be quite honest. It feels like replacing one corrupt center-right conservative shitheel with another. But I guess that's just the story of Turkish politics. Sarıgül isn't really center-right though, he's just economically neo-liberal and socially liberal. He's the sort of "anything to anyone" kind of perfect politician, big fake smile and all, and the advantage he has over Erdoğan is that he wouldn't try to force an islamic lifestyle on anyone. Bummer for environmentalists and leftists, but you gotta work with what you have.
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Dec 22, 2013 00:14
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McDowell posted:It seems to be the story of global politics these days. Funny you should mention that. One of Israel's biggest newspapers ran this story today: quote:British public broadcaster, Channel 4, revealed explosive new information Friday. According to its report, senior Syrian officials claimed that the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine–General Command (PFLP-GC), led by Ahmed Jibril, were behind the Lockerbie bombing in 1988. I don't know if the PFLP had the capability to do something like this in the late 1980s, but this seems highly suspect.
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Dec 22, 2013 00:17
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Basically the best comment I read about the Erdoğan-Sarıgül situation is "they've tried moderate islam and poo poo didn't work out, now they're gonna try moderate kemalism."
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Dec 22, 2013 00:21
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The Brown Menace posted:Protesting against Erdoğan or the government is de facto illegal, despite it being a constitutional right. Holdings close to the AKP get their tax debts reduced to comically small fractions of what they originally were, or forgiven entirely, while holdings on bad terms with the AKP get slapped with more and more tax fines and rigorous inspections (Koç Holding). Erdoğan is right now killing off a graft probe he himself is implicated in by way of Ali Ağaoğlu. Every major ribbon-cutting event of things built with taxpayer money turns into an impromptu party rally. He has directly violated the constitution by attacking religious minorities and interfering with people's personal lives. Television stations which are even a little critical of Erdoğan or the AKP, or which simply show police violence, get slapped with bankrupting fines by RTÜK. Literally every part of the state has become a weapon in his arsenal. Perhaps I need to be a bit more specific. Conscription in the Turkish military is compulsory, but very short duration (15 months) to the point where conscripts only make up the absolute lowest enlisted/reserve officer ranks. The officer and NCO structure that actually makes up both the bulk and actual functional parts is voluntary and not limited or appointed to any particular political faction/region/tribe/etc. as you'd normally see in a military willing to back a power grab. This is important, because as you say, the military would not follow Erdogan's lead. It would probably fracture - and at best end up with the majority of it in direct opposition of his bid for power. Due to it not being a partisan entity it is exceptionally unlikely to fracture neatly down partisan lines - the factions are distributed throughout the entirety of the organization. As a result, there isn't a "Justice and Development mechanized division" poised to sweep in and secure the capitol - the government would have to completely rebuild the military (not to mention police) in order to create loyal units. This is a problem when you don't have the backing of a majority and just painted a gigantic bullseye on yourself. Even in the best case scenario he would not have a functioning military supporting him, would no longer have a legal backing to his rule (which removes the legal barriers like arrest when it comes to poo poo like a military led coup), and would not have the support of the majority of the population. That's a long way of saying "the coup would not succeed". Warbadger fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Dec 22, 2013 |
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Dec 22, 2013 00:49
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Warbadger posted:Perhaps I need to be a bit more specific. Conscription in the Turkish military is compulsory, but very short duration (15 months) to the point where conscripts only make up the absolute lowest enlisted/reserve officer ranks. The officer and NCO structure that actually makes the military work is voluntary and not limited or appointed to any particular political faction/region/tribe/etc. as you'd normally see in a military willing to back a power grab. None of this means Turkish military structure is somehow ideologically or socially varied. The basic nature of the Turkish military hasn't changed at all: Potential cadets are carefully vetted according to their family background, class & ideology. They go through an education that thoroughly indoctrinates them with the values of Kemalism and idolization of Ataturk. Communism, Kurdish sympathies & Islamism are absolutely not tolerated. Even strictly religious officers can come under suspicion. Their passivity right now is only conditional; they were intimidated by Erdogan due to his strong support among the population and business circles. Overthrowing him was simply a bad idea for the long-term. Since the founding of the Turkish Republic there hasn't been a single case when the military was openly divided among themselves during important turning points. In all critical decisions, the junior officers marched in lockstep with the leadership. There are very good economic, cultural & structural reasons for this. Expecting military to fracture or even fight among themselves comes from a shallow understanding of the dynamics here. I do not specifically mean you of course; I just hear the "civil war among the military" tidbit a lot.
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Dec 22, 2013 01:23
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Warbadger posted:This is important, because as you say, the military would not follow Erdogan's lead. It would probably fracture - and at best end up with the majority of it in direct opposition of his bid for power. Due to it not being a partisan entity it is exceptionally unlikely to fracture neatly down partisan lines - the factions are distributed throughout the entirety of the organization. As a result, there isn't a "Justice and Development mechanized division" poised to sweep in and secure the capitol - the government would have to completely rebuild the military (not to mention police) in order to create loyal units. This is a problem when you don't have the backing of a majority and just painted a gigantic bullseye on yourself. People of various political ideologies are not evenly distributed throughout the military though. There has been a long-standing tradition of sending conscripts from western Anatolia, which tends to be more pro-Kemalism/pro-republic to the east, and sending conscripts from eastern Anatolia, which is more pro-AKP/pro-BDP to the west. Also considering that the military in the east bears the brunt of the fighting against the PKK, military units in eastern Turkey are more die-hard kemalist while those in western Turkey are less so. Ironic, kind of. Furthermore, you have entire sections of the army which are ideologically colored, such as the Turkish air force which is largely based in staunchly pro-Kemalist Izmir, and which had a shitload of resignations over the Ergenekon trials recently. Anyway the question is whether or not the military would stage a coup if Erdoğan assumed total power, so all of this is besides the point. The pertinent questions are: 1. What constitutes assuming total power? 2. Can the military even stage a coup as it is right now? 3. (Kinda off-topic bonus question) Is the military loyal to Erdoğan? The answers are as follows: 1. The Brown Menace posted:Protesting against Erdoğan or the government is de facto illegal, despite it being a constitutional right. Holdings close to the AKP get their tax debts reduced to comically small fractions of what they originally were, or forgiven entirely, while holdings on bad terms with the AKP get slapped with more and more tax fines and rigorous inspections (Koç Holding). Erdoğan is right now killing off a graft probe he himself is implicated in by way of Ali Ağaoğlu. Every major ribbon-cutting event of things built with taxpayer money turns into an impromptu party rally. He has directly violated the constitution by attacking religious minorities and interfering with people's personal lives. Television stations which are even a little critical of Erdoğan or the AKP, or which simply show police violence, get slapped with bankrupting fines by RTÜK. Literally every part of the state has become a weapon in his arsenal. Is this assuming absolute power, yes or no? Can we consider a political leader who is free to break constitutional law and participate in massive corruption without fear of repercussions, repeatedly and massively so, to have assumed absolute power, yes or no? 2. Once again, top brass with a Kemalist bent are all well behind bars. The army has no love for Erdoğan, for sure, but it literally does not have the organizational capability of staging a coup anymore. 3. Normally soft-spoken (and big crybaby) Bülent Arınç threatened literal military intervention during the height of the Gezi park protests last summer. Probably a bluff, but who knows. Gendarmerie units, which are nominally tied to the ministry of interior, but due to their role in fighting the PKK in the east along with the army, are basically considered part of the conventional army, enthusiastically participated in dispersing protesters during the Gezi park protests.
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Dec 22, 2013 01:36
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A little bit ago, my dad looked over my shoulder, saw I was reading SA, and asked me how people on SA feel about Benghazi. He knows that people on here lean left (often very left), and that Sean Smith was our beloved Vilerat, so he wanted to know if any goons were "radicalized" by the US government's handling of the embassy attack. I told him about the goon consensus as I understand it (there wasn't any practical way to save the four embassy workers once the attack started, and the main villains of the story are the American conservatives who used the dead as political props), but I feel like the Middle East thread regulars might provide a more substantive answer to his question than I can. He still feels that the government did the wrong thing by "leaving them to die" and then lying and obfustcating to the American people, if it matters.
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Dec 22, 2013 02:20
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There was literally nothing to do, the nearest dudes would have taken a long time to get there even if they started moving as soon as the attack started. Troops don't just teleport in, 'rapid response' usually takes a good bit, and the attack wasn't some big prolonged siege. As for the lying, Rice et all used the information she was given by intelligence agencies, complain to them about the whole 'it was a tape' thing. Beyond that there have been no lies, just politically motivated people (it's literally the same three dudes, Issa, McCain, Graham) constantly 'demanding answers' when there's no more answers to give. Just because you say 'I want more answers' doesn't mean there are any.
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Dec 22, 2013 02:25
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I have a quick question; obviously South Sudan is not in the Middle East (though you could questionably label Sudan itself as in the Arabic-speaking community, at least?), but I don't feel I have enough info on the recent attempted coup/civil war in South Sudan to make a seperate thread on it. Could this thread be used for news on the South Sudanese coup/civil war, or should someone with more knowledge than me make a South Sudanese/African thread?
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Dec 22, 2013 03:02
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fspades posted:None of this means Turkish military structure is somehow ideologically or socially varied. The basic nature of the Turkish military hasn't changed at all: Potential cadets are carefully vetted according to their family background, class & ideology. They go through an education that thoroughly indoctrinates them with the values of Kemalism and idolization of Ataturk. Communism, Kurdish sympathies & Islamism are absolutely not tolerated. Even strictly religious officers can come under suspicion. Their passivity right now is only conditional; they were intimidated by Erdogan due to his strong support among the population and business circles. Overthrowing him was simply a bad idea for the long-term. In the first place you won't see fractures in a military organization from the outside unless there is a very large and well defined internal division (as in, the soldiers know who is on their "side" and feel safe in openly choosing a side). In any case, the answer is still that this is politics as usual and Erdogan isn't about to become dictator for life.
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Dec 22, 2013 03:17
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Gygaxian posted:I have a quick question; obviously South Sudan is not in the Middle East (though you could questionably label Sudan itself as in the Arabic-speaking community, at least?), but I don't feel I have enough info on the recent attempted coup/civil war in South Sudan to make a seperate thread on it. Could this thread be used for news on the South Sudanese coup/civil war, or should someone with more knowledge than me make a South Sudanese/African thread? I was wondering this as well. I would say yes, unless someone wants to start a Central African Conflicts thread. Aside from South Sudan there is a French intervention and civil war in the CAR, ongoing violence in Nigeria, Mali is another kinda borderline country with violence and interventions. Congo is hosed. Kenya sees pretty regular violence, though thats directly related to Somalia which can be considered part of the Middle East. But god knows I'm not making that OP, I don't know nearly enough about any of that stuff except Somalia.
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Dec 22, 2013 03:54
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Pththya-lyi posted:A little bit ago, my dad looked over my shoulder, saw I was reading SA, and asked me how people on SA feel about Benghazi. He knows that people on here lean left (often very left), and that Sean Smith was our beloved Vilerat, so he wanted to know if any goons were "radicalized" by the US government's handling of the embassy attack. I told him about the goon consensus as I understand it (there wasn't any practical way to save the four embassy workers once the attack started, and the main villains of the story are the American conservatives who used the dead as political props), but I feel like the Middle East thread regulars might provide a more substantive answer to his question than I can. I do think security was lack most likely from cost cutting measures, from experience, security at a lot of American embassies even in the former Soviet Union (not exactly a friendly place) is ridiculously lax. That said, Republicans in general took an opportunity to make hay out of it when Bush would have easily done the same thing.
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Dec 22, 2013 04:06
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Gygaxian posted:I have a quick question; obviously South Sudan is not in the Middle East (though you could questionably label Sudan itself as in the Arabic-speaking community, at least?), but I don't feel I have enough info on the recent attempted coup/civil war in South Sudan to make a seperate thread on it. Could this thread be used for news on the South Sudanese coup/civil war, or should someone with more knowledge than me make a South Sudanese/African thread? Just make a thread.
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Dec 22, 2013 04:29
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PleasingFungus posted:This is absolutely surreal. Designed to appeal perfectly to the young male Jihadist set that spends its spare time playing Counterstrike at internet cafes, I guess! (Though really, the aesthetic feels a bit more Halo.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkKF4ZcqW14
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Dec 22, 2013 05:27
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Xandu posted:Just make a thread. Alright, I did. Tried to grab a few important BBC (and an LA Times) articles, but I don't have Brown Moses' level of expertise with the area.
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Dec 22, 2013 05:30
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Welp. I liked this comment: quote:Maby I don't want to join because I just died 15 times last game
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Dec 22, 2013 05:38
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Tatum Girlparts posted:There was literally nothing to do, the nearest dudes would have taken a long time to get there even if they started moving as soon as the attack started. Troops don't just teleport in, 'rapid response' usually takes a good bit, and the attack wasn't some big prolonged siege. And didn't Congress cut the budget for embassy and consulate security? Ask him why he isn't more upset about all the embassy attacks and deaths that happened under Bush.
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Dec 22, 2013 05:43
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 4 Turkish ministers have tendered their resignation. It is not known whether or not Erdoğan has accepted it yet. E-mail sent to Turkish press members by the police: Due to a Turkey-wide ban you are no longer allowed inside police headquarters. Press members with access cards to Vatan and Gayrettepe press rooms are kindly asked to return them. They will be notified of any developments and invited to police HQs accordingly (if you're dumb enough to buy that). 
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Dec 22, 2013 13:36
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This is a totally unreasonable question to ask in this thread, but is Jordan pretty safe? I was thinking of going in April, for purely tourism purposes. Was thinking of visiting Istanbul too... For more on topic news, the Egyptian revolution continues to eat its young: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25484064 quote:Egypt jails youth activist Ahmed Maher and two others mediadave fucked around with this message at 14:27 on Dec 22, 2013 |
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Dec 22, 2013 14:09
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At this point it's less the revolution eating its young and more the old junta being back at its thing.
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Dec 22, 2013 14:31
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There's been a suicide bombing in Liyba, near Benghazi. The first since Gaddafi fell. quote:The security situation in and around Benghazi has been worsening in recent months, with extremist militia blamed for almost daily attacks. quote:Benghazi has seen the rise of several extremist militia groups operating in the city since the civil war in 2011 that toppled the longstanding leader, Col Muammar Gaddafi. edit: linky: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25482088
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Dec 22, 2013 16:35
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