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The only problems I have: I really don't think Ibuki was killed via hanging but I can't really justify it using in-story clues per-say. When Mikan told us that Ibuki was absolutely killed via hanging, Nagito made a special point of emphasizing it, repeatedly questioning her, and then we got an Evidence Bullet which emphasized that Mikan's testimony was that there was no other way Ibuki could have died. The fact that this is emphasized, that Nagito seems to know more about the murder than we do, and that it is an evidence bullet really suggests that Ibuki was not killed by hanging. The Monobear file flat-out says she was killed by strangulation. If she wasn't killed by hanging then that means Ibuki was strangled and the hanging was used to disguise the fact that she was strangled. So Mikan (or whoever the killer is) strangled Ibuki at some point. This obviously would have to occur before the hanging and it seems to imply that Ibuki was in no shape to climb the ladder herself. (After all, if she could, why not just hang her in the first place? You'd have to strangle her to death while she was on the ladder somehow and then hang her.) ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 11:08 on Mar 19, 2014 |
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Mar 19, 2014 10:52
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I don't think it's particularly important whether she was strangled manually or by means of rising lighting rig. What matters is she was killed, most likely in the club due to the presence of blood on her slippers, and ended up hanging from a noose.
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Mar 19, 2014 10:58
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:I don't think it's particularly important whether she was strangled manually or by means of rising lighting rig. What matters is she was killed, most likely in the club due to the presence of blood on her slippers, and ended up hanging from a noose. It is important though. Mikan is our Super High School Level Nurse and is the one we've been using to get accurate autopsy information so far. If she says that Ibuki was killed via hanging and it turned out that she was killed via strangulation, that's significant. It means she lied about the murder method in a way which directly supports the faked story.
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Mar 19, 2014 11:03
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Er, I really don't think the finer points of "strangulation" vs. "hanging" are relevant here. Strangling by way of gravity forcing a noose against your throat and thereby constricting the windpipe, rather than having that force be applied manually by a person, is still death by strangulation.
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Mar 19, 2014 11:08
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:Er, I really don't think the finer points of "strangulation" vs. "hanging" are relevant here. Strangling by way of gravity forcing a noose against your throat and thereby constricting the windpipe is still death by strangulation. It's a very common murder mystery thing that someone who is strangled to death and someone who dies via hanging are readily identifiable as being different. More to the point, as I said, Nagito specifically questions Mikan on this: quote:
He then calls Mikan over and questions her about how Ibuki died. quote:
It really emphasizes that Nagito noticed something off about the rope and that it had to do with the idea that Ibuki was hanged to death. Even if absolutely nothing comes of that conversation, it makes it clear that Hinata's reaction ("Ibuki died via being hanged by the rope. That was obvious when we first found her") most likely isn't accurate. The Monobear File specifically points out that Ibuki died via strangulation and she has no marks on her body. This rules out poison/illness/anything else that would kill her without leaving a trace. So "strangulation' vs "hanging" actually becomes a significant difference, not just an academic one. If Ibuki wasn't hanged with the rope (as Nagito seems to imply in his dialogue) then how was she strangled to death? ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 11:36 on Mar 19, 2014 |
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Mar 19, 2014 11:11
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In other words, anyone could have gotten this rope. So I don’t think we’re going to get many hints from it.
...Are you sure about that?
There's something I want to ask you.
Y...Yes... There aren't any other wounds, so it's unquestionable that she died by hanging.
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So, maybe what Hinata saw through the monitor was actually projector footage. When everything went dark, the projector was simply turned off.
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Mar 19, 2014 11:58
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tiistai posted:So, maybe what Hinata saw through the monitor was actually projector footage. When everything went dark, the projector was simply turned off. Yeah, that'd explain a lot. The question is, how did they record the footage and play it back? Was it something as simple as just finding a camcorder and hooking it up to the projector?
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Mar 19, 2014 12:30
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Holy crap. Hinata's question to Souda about a possible third set was remarkably good thinking. And he's a protagonist! Souda also cleared up the "no recording capability" thing (which doesn't make sense for a home model, but fine, whatever, I'll accept that as true). No sign of the missing stepladder at the hospital, or a candle. If Mikan did it, she MAY have hidden it behind the stacks of boxes, but if it was filmed here, that's yet another thing the she would have had to hide on top of getting to the club to tear down the wallpaper, hide it, plant the drumstick, glue the doors, AND get away before Hinata came back. Plus, she was even waiting around for Kuzuryuu so they could split up to search. Not that it was a thing given the key placement, but it's unlikely that Saionji climbed out her tiny window with that mirror in the way. No sign of clues there either, although it explains what she was doing outside her room. Perhaps the killer was scouting the music club to plan Ibuki's murder, and killed Saionji because she knew too much? But still, Saionji's body was hidden pretty carefully which suggests careful planning. Wow. That investigation was remarkably useless! The culprit really covered their tracks well. I'm impressed. I'm starting to get the feeling that this mystery's solution will be ridiculously contrived and implausible (like the sword pogo-stick). Stabbey_the_Clown fucked around with this message at 13:14 on Mar 19, 2014 |
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Mar 19, 2014 13:05
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Hmm... The second stepladder is still missing, but if what Hinata really saw was simply a projector image I suppose whoever was running it could have simply turned it off, as others have pointed out. Still begs the question of where the stepladder IS at. The conference room certainly looks likely as the broadcast point for the video Hinata saw. But Souda has stated that the cameras have no recording capability. So there is essentially no way that video was being viewed live. Presumably it was recorded with some other device, fed through the projector, and played for the camera when Hinata answered the call. Still, something is bugging me: Who other than Souda would have even known the trick with the cameras, or would have had the technical knowledge to run a feed off a camera to a projector? Kuzuryuu is the only person in the hospital group to ever have even touched the camera and monitor, as far as we know. Mikan was never even present for any of the calls as I recall, and her knowledge of technology seems pretty... limited (unless she was setting up a cover story even way back when Nanami invited her to play some video games together). Of the patients, only Ibuki may have wandered far enough to come across the camera. Saionji was probably trying to use the long mirror when she was killed. But even Hinata had the presence of mind to wonder who else would have known she would be there, since it was late at night and only Sonia knew about the conversation. If Saionji didn't trust Sonia to help with her obi, it's pretty drat certain she'd have blown off Mikan, and probably Ibuki, even if they weren't currently being quarantined. The missing hospital gown is interesting. If Mikan really was recording/broadcasting the suicide video from the conference room, why didn't she put the gown back at some point? Kuzuryuu says he wasn't separated from her very long at all- but he also says where he searched and the club isn't one of those places he checked, implying Mikan might have gone there. Then again, I'm forced to consider everything Kuzuryuu says fairly suspect at this time. Nidai being absent is suspicious, though not in a way that relates to this case... Still, he doesn't have a very 'mastermind' kind of vibe. Prior to this case I'd been wondering if Ibuki was gonna go full-on Junko on us at some point, but I guess that would be a bit stale... At this point nearly all my major suspects are dead and it doesn't seem likely they faked it. And I doubt they pull off another twin exchange, so I'm fairly stumped, especially if Mikan is going down for this one (the evidence seems to support this but my gut is saying Kuzuryuu). Stabbey_the_Clown posted:Souda also cleared up the "no recording capability" thing (which doesn't make sense for a home model, but fine, whatever,. I dunno, most home security systems I've seen don't even bother with cameras anymore, just sensors. If your house is being robbed/broken into, what you need is a fast response from the police, not a recording of your house being robbed by a guy in a mask.
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Mar 19, 2014 13:44
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Wait no, they mean they can't "record" something and saved in such a way as to be viewed at a later date. Otherwise how were they communicating by video until now? They can still broadcast or what have you. A thing about the point of strangulation is that it could imply Nidai, he's one of the few people who look strong enough, and perhaps we need to consider just how peoples Super Duper Highschool Abilities come into play. Maybe being SHSL Coach lets him bullshit his way past the time constraints.
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Mar 19, 2014 15:12
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Man I liked my plan with mirrors. Oh well, I'm bad at murder mysteries and just enjoy the ride.
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Mar 19, 2014 15:18
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Well. Lots of stuff to mull over going into the trial. Not sure what to make of Nidai's absence. If he's okay, you would think mono bear would have him at the trial. If he's dead, I don't see why mono bear would be so coy about it rather than parading his corpse for us. Is it possible that mono bear doesn't know where he is? As for the culprit...it really doesn't look good for Mikan.
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Mar 19, 2014 15:34
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What if Nidai has pulled a Naegi/Kirigiri and escaped the bounds of the game.  It’s a non‐sequitur, but it would be a very good reason for Monobear to dodge the question.
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Mar 19, 2014 15:44
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I'm a little confused by the final conversation with Nevermind. It seems to be implying (to me) that someone had some way of knowing that Saionji was going to leave her room. But the only way that could happen (if there really was no one eavesdropping nearby) would be if Saionji or Nevermind had the other communicator on them at the time.
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Mar 19, 2014 17:19
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I think we need to be careful not to get too hung up on the projector. There isn't anything in the current plot that requires it, and there is no evidence pointing towards it being used, nor is it an evidence bullet. I think it's just there to have an explanation for why the hospital has a light-proof room. And the reason for that is so that we can give a plausible explanation for where the footage was filmed, if it wasn't at the club. Remember, everything right now is pointing towards the footage being live and filmed nearby the hospital: 1) The mysteriously appearing camera debris implies that murderer couldn't just smash the camera up at the same time as the receiver unit, i.e. because they had to use it to film the staged suicide; 2) The cameras couldn't record and play back footage, and could only transmit what it was looking at right then; 3) The camera transmission range was very short; 4) Souda only prepped two camera sets (unless he's lying, but he has no reason to that we know and nothing to gain from lying about that anyway). We also know it wasn't filmed at the club itself, because the floor is wrong in the storeroom and the camera debris would've been there to begin with if it was filmed at the stage, plus the stepladder in the video is clearly not the blood-spattered one found at the actual crime scene. It really only leaves the hospital itself, and the rest ward is way too cluttered and small to be the site used. The game is screaming at us now that someone was in the conference room at the time when Hinata was watching the transmission. And as for strangulation... it's not a matter of "hanged vs strangled", because the hanging is what causes the strangulation, much like a stab wound causes hemorrhagic shock. The real question is, was she strangled by gravity (hanged), by someone garrotting her (which would leave a straight ligature mark), or by someone using their hands (which would produce irregular ligature marks corresponding to the murderer's hands). The last possibility is immediately discounted by the Monobear file, which shows a straight, narrow ligature mark indicative of a rope across the throat. So the real question is whether she strangulated from hanging or from someone garrotting her in a standing position. However, ultimately, I still say it doesn't matter, and the game doesn't seem to be making a big deal out of it. So what if Tsumiki says she was hanged? By all appearances she was, and even if she was garrotted, the simplest explanation would just be that Tsumiki was wrong. Besides which, the culprit has nothing to gain from obscuring a garrotting as a hanging; Saionji's corpse makes it abundantly clear that a murder has taken place, so any attempts to mask the whole affair as a simple suicide (which might have been the plan from the start) are out the window anyway.
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Mar 19, 2014 17:36
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:was she strangled by gravity (hanged) No no no, this is wrong. Hangings usually kill by snapping your neck when you kick out whatever you're standing on, drop a foot or so, and then the rope goes taut and your windpipe gets slammed into the rope. Death by hanging usually features no strangulation - the victim dies immediately. That's why saying that she was killed by strangulation seems inconsistent with her being hanged - unless this game either doesn't know how hangings work (which seems pretty amateur for a murder mystery) or the hanging just wasn't done properly (which we have no evidence to suggest).
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Mar 19, 2014 17:45
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Zebia posted:I'm a little confused by the final conversation with Nevermind. It seems to be implying (to me) that someone had some way of knowing that Saionji was going to leave her room. But the only way that could happen (if there really was no one eavesdropping nearby) would be if Saionji or Nevermind had the other communicator on them at the time. Its implying that Saionji ran into the culprit making preparations when she was using the bigger mirror to tie her obi, and thus was silenced. You don't need to know how or when someone's left their room if you run into them after they've left it, after all.
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Mar 19, 2014 17:51
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Zebia posted:I'm a little confused by the final conversation with Nevermind. It seems to be implying (to me) that someone had some way of knowing that Saionji was going to leave her room. But the only way that could happen (if there really was no one eavesdropping nearby) would be if Saionji or Nevermind had the other communicator on them at the time. I think the implication is that nobody knew that Saoinji was going to be at the club at that time, which means her murder was most likely unplanned, a result of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. (Well, technically Sonia knew, but if she were involved, she probably wouldn't have volunteered information that could potentially incriminate her like that.)
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Mar 19, 2014 17:55
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Spiritus Nox posted:No no no, this is wrong. Hangings usually kill by snapping your neck when you kick out whatever you're standing on, drop a foot or so, and then the rope goes taut and your windpipe gets slammed into the rope. Death by hanging usually features no strangulation - the victim dies immediately. Actually, there are several methods used for hanging. Usually the person is dropped a few meters, shocking the neck, but before 1850, very short or no drops was standard. About 4 to 6 feet is required to kill the victim immediately, otherwise the victim is slowly strangled. Since the file claims she was strangled, she was either hanged with a short or no drop, or strangled some other way.
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Mar 19, 2014 18:02
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DaveWoo posted:I think the implication is that nobody knew that Saoinji was going to be at the club at that time, which means her murder was most likely unplanned, a result of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. (Well, technically Sonia knew, but if she were involved, she probably wouldn't have volunteered information that could potentially incriminate her like that.) If she snuck out after hours (which seems likely), odds are she ran into the culprit while she was moving materials needed to run the fake hanging scene at the hospital. An unplanned murder here could logically lead to the "copycat" scenario which places Ibuki's murder first in an attempt to cover for the unplanned killing. Things look bad for Mikan. If she openly refused to look in on Ibuki and she went upstairs to sleep, then how did she realize Ibuki was missing? Also, her curling up in bed and almost suffocating Hinata is kind of interesting given that Ibuki was strangled, especially given her "stop breathing... It tickles" dialogue. If she's not involved, that's a heck of a red herring...
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Mar 19, 2014 18:24
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Spiritus Nox posted:No no no, this is wrong. Remember the movable lighting rig; the most likely way Mioda was hung was by lowering the lighting rig, fastening the noose around her neck, and then raising it back up again. A smooth ascent, with gradually increasing pressure on her windpipe, with no quick snap to break her neck. Also look at the position of the stepladder. If someone had merely pushed the stepladder over to cause her to fall, then it would be lying with its base underneath her, but it's all off to the side. It's very likely she was strangulated by the noose as it lifted her upwards, not that she fell off the ladder and broke her neck that way; and as others have pointed out, even if she did fall off the ladder, that is still not a guarantee that she would break her neck. Many victims of hanging died from strangulation, especially if the drop was too short to generate enough momentum; and looking at the height of the noose, even if she was standing up on the stepladder, the fall doesn't seem high enough to cause that kind of tremendous sudden force.
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Mar 19, 2014 18:35
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The Hanging vs Garroting thing to me isn't really a smoking gun. She could explain that she was really nervous or excited and made a mistake. You shouldn't have put her on the spot like that! She's sorry! It may be suspicious, but it's not something that couldn't be explained away. For me, this episode made it look LESS like Mikan did it, not more. I'm still hung up on the timing of all this. We know for sure that the killer was in or visited the music club in the ten-minute window between Hinata seeing Ibuki hanging and returning with the others. For the projector to be used, the scene would need to be pre-recorded. There's no evidence of the existence of a camcorder. Souda has discarded the idea that the devices can record things. Barring evidence he's lying, we have no choice but to believe him. So the scene was filmed live. For Mikan to be our sole killer, filming live in the conference room:
Here's Hinata's chain of events:
Someone made this point earlier, but again, we are talking about Mikan. Mikan. You know, the one who is so clumsy, this is what happens when she is just standing still. Stabbey_the_Clown fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Mar 19, 2014 |
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Mar 19, 2014 20:45
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Just throwing this out there, but some sort of hyper-competent Mikan is one of the most easily imagined outcomes (at least for me) of a total 180 of her personality...
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Mar 19, 2014 21:03
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Dr Subterfuge posted:Just throwing this out there, but some sort of hyper-competent Mikan is one of the most easily imagined outcomes (at least for me) of a total 180 of her personality... She's a nurse. A SHSL Nurse, even. A nurse is someone with the sole job of improving health. What's the opposite of that? In terms of easiest outcomes, Mikan is pretty much tops and if she isn't the culprit I'd be very surprised.
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Mar 19, 2014 21:31
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Dr Subterfuge posted:Just throwing this out there, but some sort of hyper-competent Mikan is one of the most easily imagined outcomes (at least for me) of a total 180 of her personality... A possibility, but I would consider it lame and boring if murders were committed by a person who only committed them because their personality was literally magically reversed 180 degrees. It would also raise unfortunate questions about whether the person was really responsible for their actions. Given what we saw of the "Despair Fever" victims, I'd say none of them were in their right state of mind. Besides that, none of the others could maintain their own normal-seeming personality, it was clear that they were entirely saying uncharacteristic things and acting differently. Tsumiki was generally acting normally. Stabbey_the_Clown fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Mar 19, 2014 |
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Mar 19, 2014 21:36
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Stabbey_the_Clown posted:The Hanging vs Garroting thing to me isn't really a smoking gun. She could explain that she was really nervous or excited and made a mistake. You shouldn't have put her on the spot like that! She's sorry! It may be suspicious, but it's not something that couldn't be explained away. Not in a murder mystery, no. Mikan's thing as defined so far is that she is a SHSL Nurse and her ability to be correct is considered infallible enough that she is questioned during trials about cause of death and her accuracy is considered important to the outcome. "She was just nervous/excited and gave wrong information that happened to hide the cause of death" is absolutely not something that works from a mystery-writing perspective. If she was wrong it was for a reason: either she was the murderer, the accomplice, or she's lying for some other stupider reason. (Which isn't out of the question since other people have done that, but at that point we're running drastically low on viable suspects.) The timeline is tight no matter who we're talking about here. Mikan is still the most likely suspect. ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Mar 19, 2014 |
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Mar 19, 2014 21:46
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Stabbey_the_Clown posted:Someone made this point earlier, but again, we are talking about Mikan. Mikan. You know, the one who is so clumsy, this is what happens when she is just standing still. Am I the only one who finds those incidents suspect? She's a SHSL Nurse, which has to imply that she has at least passable motor skills, and for that matter, both poses seem unnatural. I'm pretty clumsy myself, but I've never managed to fall quite like that.
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Mar 19, 2014 21:56
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Yeah, but you're not a teenage girl in an anime universe.
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Mar 19, 2014 22:15
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:(Did she have time to do all this in the short time between Kuzuryuu and her splitting up and making it to the motel? What was the point of the resin and drumstick in the first place?) I can at least answer the second part of that. The purpose of the resin and drumsticks was to trick people into thinking the drumsticks were what was keeping the door closed. As there's only one entrance, that means that the killer would have to still be inside the club when they broke in, as there's no way he could've placed the drumsticks from outside. The killer then slipped into the group while everyone was arriving without anyone noticing they didn't arrive from outside. Were this the case, it would eliminate Hinata and everyone who entered with him as suspects, as they were obviously not still inside the club. However, the resin on the door means that the drumsticks prove nothing; they were likely pre-broken and placed at the entrance, with the resin being what really was keeping the door from opening. This does the opposite: it throws suspicion on the people Hinata arrived with, as they're the ones who'd benefit most from the illusion. It doesn't prove it was one of them but it does throw a great deal of suspicion on them.
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Mar 19, 2014 22:38
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ImpAtom posted:"She was just nervous/excited and gave wrong information that happened to hide the cause of death" is absolutely not something that works from a mystery-writing perspective But again, everything points to Mioda actually dying from hanging. No one's hiding any cause of death here; the most likely answer is that Tsumiki is right about the cause of death and that it really is what it seems to be. We return to the fact that, right now, the case doesn't really change if the murderer garrotted her and strung her up or just hung her. They're still just as guilty of murder and we're no closer to learning anything about them. Everyone in the game right now is wrong about something. The order of murders, for instance, still seems to elude most of them. You can't just go "The only way anyone would say anything factually incorrect is if they're lying, because murder mystery", especially when there's nothing we know of she stands to gain from saying that in the first place, even if she is the murderer. That's just not a reason. Just a very insistent shrug. Edit: I don't see how that explains anything, though. Tsumiki was in the group, so why plant two contradictory pieces of evidence, one implicating her and one implicating everyone else? It's just a big evidentiary null. Hyper Crab Tank fucked around with this message at 22:49 on Mar 19, 2014 |
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Mar 19, 2014 22:46
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Wow, that cleared up very little, other than Sonia's evidence confirming that Saonji was not the initial target of the killings, and identifying a place where the false hanging could have been staged. Souda, Sonia, Kuryuzuu, and Mikan are all still in the running, although for Mikan the timing is a serious issue. Finally, a trial where nobody knows the culprit for certain.
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Mar 19, 2014 23:04
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:But again, everything points to Mioda actually dying from hanging. As I pointed out earlier, Nagito seems to be implying otherwise. The only person who has said that Ibuki died of hanging was Mikan. Everyone else (including Hinata) is just assuming that is true. This is not going "maybe this is an academic difference!" A character who is depicted as knowing who the murderer is has actively hinted that the murder did not go down as we expected. This is a clue and we even got an Evidence Bullet for it. Hyper Crab Tank posted:Everyone in the game right now is wrong about something. The order of murders, for instance, still seems to elude most of them. You can't just go "The only way anyone would say anything factually incorrect is if they're lying, because murder mystery", especially when there's nothing we know of she stands to gain from saying that in the first place, even if she is the murderer. That's just not a reason. Just a very insistent shrug. There is a difference between "a character is wrong because they made a wrong assumption" and "A character who is explained onscreen to be trained in a specific subject matter makes a mistake in the subject matter they are explained to be trained in." And as far as what she stands to gain, it is what the murderer would gain from the entire setup: By faking a suicide, you disguise the actual cause of death. There's no other reason to fake the suicide. And the room at the hospital, the missing gown, and other factors make it really clear at this point that the suicide video was faked. Hyper Crab Tank posted:I don't see how that explains anything, though. Tsumiki was in the group, so why plant two contradictory pieces of evidence, one implicating her and one implicating everyone else? It's just a big evidentiary null. The drumstricks are the evidence people meant to find. They were obvious and in the open. The other piece of evidence was meant to be overlooked. The entire mystery is "this is what it looks like" vs "this is what it actually is." ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 23:18 on Mar 19, 2014 |
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Mar 19, 2014 23:12
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ImpAtom posted:There is a difference between "a character is wrong because they made a wrong assumption" and "A character who is explained onscreen to be trained in a specific subject matter makes a mistake in the subject matter they are explained to be trained in." The medical fact of the case is that Mioda died from strangulation. About that, Tsumiki is not wrong. The rest is assumption on her (and everyone else's) part, and we don't know if she's even wrong about that - most likely she isn't. I don't think she's necessarily trained to know the difference between someone being garrotted and being hanged, and both would leave similar ligature marks anyhow. She's a nurse, not a forensic analyst. ImpAtom posted:And as far as what she stands to gain, it is what the murderer would gain from the entire setup: By faking a suicide, you disguise the actual cause of death. There's no other reason to fake the suicide. And the room at the hospital, the missing gown, and other factors make it really clear at this point that the suicide video was faked. Given that Monobear has outright stated that there is one culprit behind two murders, the idea that all this is intended to hide that Mioda was killed rather than committed suicide went out long ago, arguably when Saionji got involved. The culprit most certainly set out with the goal to disguise a murder as a suicide, but any hope of anyone falling for that went up in flames when Saionji ended up dead and the plan had to be revised. I think a lot of the circumstances we are faced with are basically a planned coverup and an ad-hoc coverup colliding. Some stuff (the faked footage) was a part of the old plan that doesn't really work anymore; other stuff (the fake pillar) is part of another coverup which wasn't as well thought out. ImpAtom posted:The drumstricks are the evidence people meant to find. They were obvious and in the open. The other piece of evidence was meant to be overlooked. The entire mystery is "this is what it looks like" vs "this is what it actually is." Still doesn't explain anything, especially not since the "more hidden" evidence - i.e. the one people are more likely to think is the true one once discovered - implicates her.
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Mar 19, 2014 23:23
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:She's a nurse, not a forensic analyst. She has been our source of autopsy information for the previous to cases and was able to give accurate information to the point we could determine, for example, what someone was stabbed with. Within the confines of the information given by the game she is that capable. If she is wrong it is for a reason and so far the only viable reason presented is "she is the murderer and playing into the faked death scene." And as I've said repeatedly, Nagito brought it up. This is an actual clue presented by a character who we have good reason to believe knows (or has a strong suspicion) of who the killer is. Hyper Crab Tank posted:the idea that all this is intended to hide that Mioda was killed rather than committed suicide went out long ago, arguably when Saionji got involved. How so? There's absolutely nothing that has changed with regards to that. The hanging being faked would make people think that Mioda was killed just before Hinata arrived. The times of death are intentionally obscured (and this is commented on). It also would make her think she died of hanging instead of being murdered actively. Even without it being a fake suicide it still disguises the time of death. Hyper Crab Tank posted:Still doesn't explain anything, especially not since the "more hidden" evidence - i.e. the one people are more likely to think is the true one once discovered - implicates her. The crime scene was faked. However to fake that crime scene you still need to do something to fake it! The thing that implicates her is in fact the actual thing used to seal the door. A fake piece of evidence was planted to throw suspicion away from her with the assumption that people would look at the obvious answer (the door was sealed with drumsticks from the inside!) and not the actual cause. ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Mar 19, 2014 |
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Mar 19, 2014 23:30
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:The medical fact of the case is that Mioda died from strangulation. About that, Tsumiki is not wrong. The rest is assumption on her (and everyone else's) part, and we don't know if she's even wrong about that - most likely she isn't. I don't think she's necessarily trained to know the difference between someone being garrotted and being hanged, and both would leave similar ligature marks anyhow. She's a nurse, not a forensic analyst. Actually, while I could easily be wrong about this, I thought that the difference in ligature marks is a fairly simple matter of placement. If you hang yourself, the rope is going to hike up around your neck, getting you from a different angle than if someone was manually strangling you, which would be right on the throat.
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Mar 20, 2014 00:36
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The Lord of Hats posted:Actually, while I could easily be wrong about this, I thought that the difference in ligature marks is a fairly simple matter of placement. If you hang yourself, the rope is going to hike up around your neck, getting you from a different angle than if someone was manually strangling you, which would be right on the throat. If this was true there would have to be two sets of marks around Ibuki's neck: One from the strangling, and one from the hanging.
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Mar 20, 2014 00:51
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All right, finally done with the investigation and a few of the nagging doubts have been cleared up while some still remain and will probably be points of contention in the trial proper. But I think we can safely agree that the initial target was Saionji. The killer followed her to the dance hall and killed her while she was tying her obi, presumably focused on that and not the sight of someone coming up behind her. This probably took place in the supply room. So, now for the question of how anyone knew she was there, according to Sonia, there was no one who overheard their conversation and she didn't repeat it to anyone, which means that it's unlikely that anyone in the Motel group could have known about this. Perhaps Saionji accidentally triggered the camera. She hasn't been present for any of the call-ins so it's possible she didn't realize she'd done it at all. Our culprit then proceeded to kill Saionji and presumably rigged the fake pillar to conceal the body. This was probably done with the help of Ibuki, who probably was gullible enough to believe it wasn't concealing Saionji's lifeless body if told as much. The killer then disposed of Ibuki via strangulation and left her body hanging to create the illusion of a suicide. Lastly, the killer concealed themselves in the conference room and created a fake suicide video to lure a witness to the initial concealed crime scene. Following this, they ripped down the fake pillar and put it back in the store room before Hinata returned with help. Assuming that Sonia is right and no one from the motel group would have been aware of it, anyway. Following this assumption, we can then assume that Souda and Sonia's whereabouts are not important for the proceedings. Let's continue with that assumption for now. Now, assuming that this is the case, this means that the killer must have created the fake crime scene beforehand and waited for their opportunity. It is conceivable this was Mikan's intention of waking Hinata (and trying to wake Kuzuryuu), to create witnesses so she'd know they were there. I find this unlikely but still plausible. What this then means is that Mikan had to get dressed and outside within the window of time allowed by Kuzuryuu's statement that he was woken by the announcement and headed over to the hospital where he met her outside. While possible, it does not seem as plausible, but it is not implausible enough to outright deny (as far as anything in this scenario would allow). Then, while split up, Mikan would proceed with recreating the crime scene, and meet up with the rest of the group. As she searched that way from Kuzuryuu's statemnt, it seems odd that she wouldn't know about it, but again, considering Mikan's prior scatterbrained personality it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility. Then, making sure to lock the door behind her somehow, Mikan met with the others and things proceeded as everyone is aware. But let's not completely rule out Kuzuryuu, who has enough of a time frame of unexplained absences to be possible. Let's say for example that he prepared the fake crime scene in advanced, and snuck in sometime while Mikan was distracted (which is pretty much anytime, considering that she was watching a seriously ill patient most of the night) to lie in wait. Now, again mysteriously, he manages to time the bait and get Hinata out of there, gets changed and manages to get out of the hospital without Mikan's knowledge to rearrange the crime scene. Then, meeting Mikan outside, the two of them 'search' and Kuzuryuu meets up with the rest at the motel. There are a lot of coincidences here, too, as the time-frames are just too tiny for there to be any room for error. Kuzuryuu's testimony even says they weren't separated for long. Of course, we could assume that if Kuzuryuu's the culprit that he's lying about where he searched and that he went to the music club in his search. This would create a he-said-she-said situation in the trial, as there's really no evidence to state clearly whether or not someone went to the music hall or not. Logically speaking it shouldn't be hard to figure out, but, the island isn't necessarily a 2-dimensional plane to the characters and we shouldn't assume that. Both of them are still viable suspects, at this point. And we won't know for certain until we get to the trial. And that leaves us with another possibility. Souda. There are two people without alibis and plenty of time where they could move undetected. Souda seems the most likely suspect. Let's say by chance he did catch sight of Saionji sneaking over to the music hall and proceeded to kill her. There's nothing stopping him from then arranging the crime as the rest did. Kuzuryuu even drew attention to their whereabouts being unknown. They could have been in their rooms, conceivably, but that's the only place they could have been. The advantage to this theory is the freedom of time. Souda doesn't have to meet anyone, he'd know about the limitations of the cameras, and he has an opportunity to have seen Saionji and followed her. The disadvantages are pretty simple, how exactly did he not get seen at any time? Is he a ninja? While Sonia has some of the same advantages, she just seems to be less likely, but unlike the others she'd know about the mirror and could conceivably get close to Saionji without causing too much of a fuss, then proceed to order Ibuki's help. Ultimately, my gut is telling me Kuzuryuu's alibi is the shakiest, but there are still things that make me unsure if I can suspect him. Mikan is also suspect because unlike the others she can actually stay in the hospital after night, but Kuzuryuu's been controlling the pace of the investigation whenever he's around, throwing around helpful tidbits and just being generally... suspect. Still, it's early in the trial. I'm sure Ibuki will be the first order of business and that's going to draw Mikan early on because she'd be the one responsible for watching her. I can't imagine we won't spend a while having to disprove that suspicion though it's entirely possible that we'll have just created a trap for ourselves... I somehow doubt Mikan (as we know her anyway) is capable of that.
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Mar 20, 2014 00:56
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CuppaGodot posted:All right, finally done with the investigation and a few of the nagging doubts have been cleared up while some still remain and will probably be points of contention in the trial proper. But I think we can safely agree that the initial target was Saionji. The killer followed her to the dance hall and killed her while she was tying her obi, presumably focused on that and not the sight of someone coming up behind her. This probably took place in the supply room. But everything seems to suggest otherwise. Most of the murders in DR aren't on impulse (the exceptions being Leon and Mondo). I mean, it's possible that someone saw her go to the club and followed her to kill her, but the whole thing still seems way too tidy for that--so much about what we've seen would require foresight; otherwise they have to pull this all off literally within one night. It would be much easier for someone to choose to kill Ibuki than to gamble on Saionji. quote:]Our culprit then proceeded to kill Saionji and presumably rigged the fake pillar to conceal the body. This was probably done with the help of Ibuki, who probably was gullible enough to believe it wasn't concealing Saionji's lifeless body if told as much. The killer then disposed of Ibuki via strangulation and left her body hanging to create the illusion of a suicide. Lastly, the killer concealed themselves in the conference room and created a fake suicide video to lure a witness to the initial concealed crime scene. Following this, they ripped down the fake pillar and put it back in the store room before Hinata returned with help. I can't object to this *too* much, because whoever came first, the killer had to get Ibuki to the club somehow, so it's not strong evidence either way. quote:Following this assumption, we can then assume that Souda and Sonia's whereabouts are not important for the proceedings. Let's continue with that assumption for now. Now, assuming that this is the case, this means that the killer must have created the fake crime scene beforehand and waited for their opportunity. It is conceivable this was Mikan's intention of waking Hinata (and trying to wake Kuzuryuu), to create witnesses so she'd know they were there. I find this unlikely but still plausible. What this then means is that Mikan had to get dressed and outside within the window of time allowed by Kuzuryuu's statement that he was woken by the announcement and headed over to the hospital where he met her outside. While possible, it does not seem as plausible, but it is not implausible enough to outright deny (as far as anything in this scenario would allow). I feel like Mikan as the killer requires a lot of specific timings that would be really difficult--getting Hinata, leaving him in the lobby, getting up to the fake stage fast enough to have time to change into the costume, fake the suicide, and then change back before anyone else shows up. Then there's the whole deal with getting to the club after she'd met Kuzuryuu, *and* after Hinata had left, but before he could get back. It's *possible*, and the evidence seems to support it, but it would require a good chunk of luck. Which makes it pretty appropriate for DR, I suppose. quote:But let's not completely rule out Kuzuryuu, who has enough of a time frame of unexplained absences to be possible. Let's say for example that he prepared the fake crime scene in advanced, and snuck in sometime while Mikan was distracted (which is pretty much anytime, considering that she was watching a seriously ill patient most of the night) to lie in wait. Now, again mysteriously, he manages to time the bait and get Hinata out of there, gets changed and manages to get out of the hospital without Mikan's knowledge to rearrange the crime scene. Then, meeting Mikan outside, the two of them 'search' and Kuzuryuu meets up with the rest at the motel. My objection to it being Kuzuryuu is that Kuzuryuu has spent this investigation being a misled dumbass. Which is, I suppose, suspicious in itself. quote:And that leaves us with another possibility. Souda. Souda has the technical knowledge of the cameras, but like you said, he's probably not a ninja (unlike Peko, although it would be funny if the explanation for all the murders after the first is "NINJA TRICKS"). Also, I don't think he could pass as Ibuki in the video, even with the bag over his head.
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Mar 20, 2014 04:06
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I really like that we've got other people conducting investigations alongside us and not sharing. Jacks up the anticipation for the trial.
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Mar 20, 2014 04:08
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If one were to physically remove the camera from the Music Club's transmission apparatus, and then place it in the conference room, would it would still broadcast as intended?The Lord of Hats posted:I feel like Mikan as the killer requires a lot of specific timings that would be really difficult--getting Hinata, leaving him in the lobby, getting up to the fake stage fast enough to have time to change into the costume, fake the suicide, and then change back before anyone else shows up. Then there's the whole deal with getting to the club after she'd met Kuzuryuu, *and* after Hinata had left, but before he could get back. It's *possible*, and the evidence seems to support it, but it would require a good chunk of luck. Which makes it pretty appropriate for DR, I suppose. If she were the one to do it it would make sense for her to wake him up before everyone is awake, thus giving her a time window - the fake hanging was completed before the wakeup announcement, giving Mikan time to change and come back out. In fact, she was already outside the hospital panicking over Ibuki missing when Kuzu showed up. This combined with the quarantine on the hospital would mean she might have a lot of time to work with. Especially because one would reasonably bank on the person who saw the footage would head right to the scene. The fact that she was tired looking suggests she had been up, perhaps she was setting up stuff overnight? I'm still unsure about how the scene managed to transition from the state where Hinata first sees it to where Saionji is exposed and there's more debris, but we'll have to find that out. Especially because she'd need to come back up to meet with Hinata to break down the door - its not a lot of time.
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Mar 20, 2014 04:33
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