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Gwynplaine posted:Coq says his information, if revealed will only benefit scum. I realise I am both a new player and not a great thinker but I can't think of what that information could be, nor how much of a difference it could make given that we have no real edge or leads on the scum anyways. Well he could reveal he is a tracker or he is a cop or something else entirely. (No coq don't actually do it! Bad coq!) One of those roles is better than the other. I'm guessing he just doesn't want to reveal what he actually is. either way it's kind of a dumb excuse because he let it be known he was a role in the first place (to save his skin) and scum would probably just assume the worst anyway if they wanted to off him.
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Feb 18, 2015 05:55
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black_tangled posted:There are a lot of roles and ones like watcher or cop show *certain* information which is often obscured in some way by other rules. Basically you are often really limited in the kind of info you get when you perform an investigation. For example tracker would watch a player and know if they performed a night action on someone else. But that may or may not form a complete picture, depending on what else happens that night. Yes I get that part. But a scum player may claim that he has this information in order to prevent being killed, yes? Aren't these roles fairly rare? Limited to one or two players in a game of this size? So if someone claims this, can't we look at the total player pool and guess that there is x chance they have this role and therefore x chance he is telling the truth?
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Feb 18, 2015 05:57
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SKY COQ posted:Yeah it's literally some of the same stuff Gaspy posted in his flavour text this morning. Picked too popular target last night, etc etc. I'm really sorry, but I genuinely don't understand. If it's just me who still finds this too cryptic I will absolutely drop this. I don't actually particularly suspect coq.
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Feb 18, 2015 05:57
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If you look at my earlier posts about Coq you will see that he has made a fairly specific claim. Now making a role claim early is bad no matter if you are town or scum. 1)If you are town, it paints a big target on your chest for a night kill. 2)If you are scum, it is likely that another town player will have that role and call you out on this. This means you will get lynched eventually. For scum its a desperate play. At the moment, if he is scum it is very likely that someone has the role he has claimed. As town we don't want to reveal themselves today - because we will be back at point one. Either way Coq is a deadman walking. On the balance of things he is probably town, so lets not help scum by lynching him today.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:03
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Okay, here is the rundown of how things switched from Anidav to Coq, and almost made it. The theory seems to suggest that whether or not Coq is scum and actually a better choice than Anidav at all, the change in momentum was townie-led. First vote for Coq was around noon, and a total jokepost: Anidav posted:
Nothing was happening on him till Beet made a case on him 5 hours later: Matthew Beet posted:"Hi I'm Coq, I post wishy washy poo poo like this to try and cover my arse if the lynchee flips town. I do this because I'm concerned people will think I'm too late jumping in on a lynch if i jump on now. I don't realise that in doing so, this does the opposite of what i wanted and draws attention to me. You can tell this post is white noise, because I don't offer anything of worth up and instead ask everyone else to make suggestions, giving the illusion i'm helping." Coq got prompted for some more input then ended up voting Beet, which looked OMGUS-y and Splode agreed it was quite defensive. Mith, known town, thought the Tirade collusion was also suss. Mills, known town, cast a new vote for Coq. (which Tirade teased him a bit about coq-ing up the vote) Small Keating followed with the next vote on Coq. Then Anidav, but I think his original vote might have still been on Coq anyway? But anyway, he makes for another known town on that bandwagon. I joined in as well around that point. Then Old Dirty Cumburgs followed. Milky next, saying he'd vote for "whoever on Day 1". Coq and Anidav are now dead tied at 6 votes each. black_tangled then suggested this was a bandwagon engineered by Anidav, super shady. Hmmm. Splode joined the Coq side at this point, putting him in the lead 7 to 6. Mith, known town, now joined with vote 8. TOML weighed in now with a vote for Anidav instead. (Coq leading 8 to 7) Tirade unvoted, (he'd been sitting with a useless vote on ODC before), suggesting both Anidav and Coq were town. Kat defended the vote held on Anidav. Coq voted for Anidav (naturally enough), Tirade and Gwyn join also, with Gwyn making strange arguments about Mills being "up to something" or teamed up with other posters all the while. It got up to 9 Anidav/8 Coq, and I switched my vote to Anidav with 15 minutes left on the clock. From here it got right down to the wire, but known town Mills was actively working out numbers on how a switch to Coq could still be possible with me and Beet, and allegedly coin-flipped Gwyn being willing to switch. TOML took this moment to re-affirm intent to stick with Anidav. WFD and hiddenmovement then rush in at the last second to hammer. (this could easily be interpreted either way) ===========//=========== If Coq is scum, all attempts to hold on Anidav after the switch to Coq become quite suspect. I've underlined these areas. If Coq is town, scum wouldn't really care which of them got lynched, but they are probably not well represented in the earlier group of posters that led the new Coq bandwagon out of nowhere. Once two neck-and-neck candidates were established, they might have preferred to avoid a no-lynch in this situation. Scum would have then tried to just not look too out of place, whichever side won out.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:04
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Further feelings. TOML at the end of D1 could be seen as trying to block the lynch, but I think instead it was trying to follow the advice of a very insistent and persuasive Millspicion. He has done some good effort posting this morning but only to reassert Mills' Coq hunt and throw some shade at Bif. SK I feel okay about. I think they are participating reasonably and expressing their concerned Town Vanilla-ness. Milky: Milky Moor posted:
What's this about?
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Feb 18, 2015 06:06
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Gwynplaine posted:I'm really sorry, but I genuinely don't understand. If it's just me who still finds this too cryptic I will absolutely drop this. So I performed a night action last night that allowed me to get some information about a specific player - in this case, I picked Mills, because I wanted to know whether to trust him or not. However, Mills was killed overnight, and when he died, his information "flipped" - including the small piece of data I was able to gather.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:06
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Bifauxnen posted:If Coq is scum, all attempts to hold on Anidav after the switch to Coq become quite suspect. I've underlined these areas. Hm, maybe I should've underlined my flop too to be fair, except I know I was just trying to avoid the no-lynch and didn't think this kind of last-minute shuffling was really a good idea to rely on. Will mention it now for the sake of transparency.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:06
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I'm going to be moderately quiet from about 5-8, so I'm trying to work out who to vote for before I leave work.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:10
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Kat Delacour posted:Further feelings. What's this about? [/quote] Consider it an incredibly accurate hunch.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:10
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Bifauxnen posted:TOML took this moment to re-affirm intent to stick with Anidav. (this could easily be interpreted either way) Post history shows Those On My Left posted:loving, fine This was his last vote.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:10
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I am going sailing as is my usual Wednesday evening routine these days, I will hopefully be back around 8:30pm, but if we are late making it back to port ##vote Sky Coq
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Feb 18, 2015 06:12
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Kat Delacour posted:Post history shows That was after the hammer, though. It would be really nice if we could prove now that Coq is scum, cause it would make my effortpost above a lot easier to work from. But if he's town, it gets a lot murkier.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:13
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Hey Kat, I just noticed your quote on me makes a very strange cut. The (this could easily be interpreted either way) applied to WFD and hiddenmovement rushing in with only 3 minutes left, not to TOML.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:14
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I only extracted the part about TOML because I still has his post history open from my own feelings post just before. Didn't have any opinion on the others.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:15
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I also hadn't realised it was after the hammer, I don't know how to get to votefinder to check that kind of stuff - I can't see a link in the OP.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:16
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Small Keating posted:I dunno, man. You could always try throwing us a bone in the form of an effort post, or some genuine analysis starting from first principles, or something, instead of hanging back and being cryptic. As it stands, I'm standing by last night's vote for you and will be repeating that behaviour tonight. OK, so this was an excellent idea and I'm all for it. So, starting from the beginning - I am town, and as I've now irrevocably mentioned, I have a power role. Apologies for that - I was exhausted, stressed out and acted really sloppily yesterday afternoon/evening. If we operate from the principle that I am town (because, well, I am), then yeah, there's a good chance that votes being thrown my way today are very scum-heavy. Particularly if one of the two scum factions I reckon exist (thanks to the two nightkills) was watching me last night while I visited Mills. I'm going to use FS's list of people who have expressed suspicion on me today, then. Right now I'm happy to discard yesterday's voting pattern because of how hosed it was. And believe me, if I were scum, I'd have orchestrated a way better play with my teammates than having them hammer Anime Dave a minute before deadline. TOML: Suss on me, but very even-handed about the whole situation. Usually a very strong, considered poster in these games. Right now, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Black_Tangled: Suss on me due to yesterday's bullshit. Again, benefit of the doubt, as she hasn't gone too hard on me today. Kat: Carefully considered posts. Again, probably not maximum sussness. Old Dirty Cumbags: For a first time player (I think), he's casting aspersions at me with shocking depth. I get the feeling he's being coached. Definitely on my list. MMG: Encouraging me to fully roleclaim. Even though my agreeing with Tirade and Bif has gotten me in trouble so far, I agree with their logic. I'm still suss on Beet, as well as ODC and MMG. I believe Tirade, Bif and possibly TOML are genuine townies. At the end of the day I think we're in kind of a unique situation here. I know I'm a dead man walking, it's my own fault and I'll accept it. I am know I'll flip town when I die. Town is in the interesting situation of choosing when that will be, though. You could lynch me today, but that's honestly a waste of a day - I will be killed at night, particularly if I live long enough to seriously gently caress up an actual scum. You just have to be patient. In the mean time, I've listed my suspicions and speculation about who is trustworthy. I'll keep them updated as the game progresses, so that when I am inevtiably nightkilled you'll know who to look for.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:16
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Wait, Bif, did you mean I cut it weird as in "interpretted either way" was about the other two guys? I assumed it was about TOML because it followed his comment. It seemed a logical sentence.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:17
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Oh god no I hosed up the crop, that's just me being stupid. Sorry.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:18
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tl;dr - since I've pretty much already roleclaimed, I'm a wasted lynch as I'll probably be nightkilled. Focus on other suspects, and I'll give you info when I get it.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:18
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SKY COQ posted:tl;dr - since I've pretty much already roleclaimed, I'm a wasted lynch as I'll probably be nightkilled. Focus on other suspects, and I'll give you info when I get it. Not necessarily. Scum may not target you- because you've been top of the hit list for a while, the longer you are in the game the more they can keep that flame alive, plus if people believe your role claim it's possible you will attract protection which might scupper an attack.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:21
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And with that said, now any scum watchers/trackers/whatever the one that sees usernames is can keep an eye out for other town power roles targeting you. Roleclaiming is loving stupid.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:23
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SKY COQ posted:tl;dr - since I've pretty much already roleclaimed, I'm a wasted lynch as I'll probably be nightkilled. Focus on other suspects, and I'll give you info when I get it. Yeah, it'd be silly for scum to kill you (tonight at least) as that just seeds more confusion. In short Kat Delacour posted:Roleclaiming is loving stupid.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:25
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Tirade posted:Here's my take on yesterday. This is why I'm not voting for Coq. Seems to play straight into scum hands. Plus I can believe he was just being stupid. 
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Feb 18, 2015 06:32
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Just on another note I shall also be away from home tonight at a birthday party but should still be able to phone post. Not as fancy as sailing, but still.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:42
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Sorry for lack of posts - I'm at the cricket and the Vodafone network has completely shat itself. It's taken me over an hour to post this. Hopefully it will sort itself out soon. Hold off on the hammer drop until later on tonight, ok?
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Feb 18, 2015 06:44
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If we eliminate coq from the lynch list, who would our next best option be? Some people are still too quiet. If they're note voting and not actually helping us with theories, we really may as well take a chance on them.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:50
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It's coming up on home time, things got hopping about 6 last night, give people time.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:51
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Sorry for lack of posts - I'm at the cricket and the Vodafone network has completely shat itself. It's taken me over an hour to post this. Hopefully it will sort itself out soon. Hold off on the hammer drop until later on tonight, ok?
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Feb 18, 2015 06:51
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It's Groundhog Day!
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Feb 18, 2015 06:52
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black_tangled posted:This is why I'm not voting for Coq. Seems to play straight into scum hands. Plus I can believe he was just being stupid. Yes, this is a pretty sound argument. I'm a bit less suss about Bif right now. It was interesting to see Beet talk me down from that rather than piling on. I've had a quick look through the post histories of those who've been posting a bit less. dj-bbq's post levels are so low that I can't believe any scum would do that. what's for dinner is still on board for lynching coq and has only really made one substantive post, and that was in self-defence. ##vote whats for dinner Now heading to dinner and drinks, may or may not be back before hammer.
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Feb 18, 2015 06:58
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Those On My Left posted:
Maybe that's what they have in mind.
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Feb 18, 2015 07:02
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Maybe he's also brand spanking new at mafia and doesn't know it's a poor play
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Feb 18, 2015 07:07
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Those On My Left posted:Yes, this is a pretty sound argument. dj-bbq's post count is always ridiculously low, he usually gets lynched for it. That said, today he immediately piped up when he was called out on it, so that's a bit suss. Your argument for whats for dinner is pretty good. It also doesn't help that his post in self defence was delayed until today after he'd had plenty of time to think of something, so until we get a better candidate ##vote whats for dinner Especially considering the other suspicious hammer voter was hiddenmovement who has pretty clearly demonstrated he's just a big dumb noob, whats for dinner is much more suspicious.
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Feb 18, 2015 07:08
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hiddenmovement posted:Maybe he's also brand spanking new at mafia and doesn't know it's a poor play nah dj-bbq's been in heaps of these games, but he's infamous for hardly ever bothering to post.
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Feb 18, 2015 07:10
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I'm feeling a bit lost at the moment. If Coq is scum, we got some real tasty data to look at from how things moved yesterday. But if he's town, what else have we got to go on? If he's town, Tirade's theory is a bit inconvenient for them. But after looking around on who would be good to vote for I think FS still looks a bit suss. He posted little of note on D1, got on the easy Anidav train around 4pm. then lied low the rest of the night, not daring to weigh in on any of the debate between voting him and Coq. Then this morning, he tries to weigh in on the nightkills: Freudian Slip posted:As for Mills, I think the scum decided that he was too dangerous to keep around. I will have to look at Mith though. But are we sure it was a second scum kill? Did someone Bus Mith and Tirade? Freudian Slip posted:Just went through Mith's posts and they were fairly helpful and few were white noise. Conveniently leaving out the part where Mills briefly tried to case him. Maybe Coq's not the one who had to worry about a Mills kill looking too obvious. I got no idea what could be going on with Mith, but whichever one was the scum pick, FS might be trying to confuse the issue. Freudian Slip posted:Either way Coq is a deadman walking. On the balance of things he is probably town, so lets not help scum by lynching him today. This is the sticking point. If Coq has an investigative role, they really should want him dead. Preferably by lynch instead of having to worry about nighkilling him, when he could be protected. But they have much less to fear now in the way of being watched. So maybe that's it - they figure if he's not lynched today, they can easily watch him tonight to find his protection. In a large game like this, that might be well worth it in the long run to take one more night of risk. Just throw one scum under the bus once they're found out. And by buddying up to him today in the meantime, they'll look real rosy for sticking up for him now by the time he does flip. Maybe they won't even be investigated by him tonight when they're his staunch defenders! TOML has just weighed in on the same note. If my TOML-handwringing theory is right, he could be trying to look innocent to Coq as well.
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Feb 18, 2015 07:15
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We seem to be going around in circles Bif. I didn't lay low last night. I voted for Anidav because at that point there was only white noise and Anidav starting to melt down. I knew I was going out in the evening and wanted to vote before I left. I was happy with the vote then and thought the vote would be over quickly. I didn't get back home till after hammer and was surprised by the amount of posting. Today I have had more to go beyond the white noise of yesterday. I have been fairly strident that we shouldn't lynch Coq today because of the role claim he has made. I have also shown that a poo poo town of people have him as their prime suspect. If he makes it tomorrow, he will have to clarify his role and then we can see whether someone contests his role. In the meantime, we should focus on finding someone else. In terms of Mills, yes Mills did vote for me and I said that the whole mafia team would have to be noobs to kill him because they were scared that Mills was on to them. Mills himself talks about the fact that he usually has a good idea who is scum by day 2. I think the scum decided not to give him the chance. This is just a theory though. As for Mith, I believe TOML's theory now is the best as Mith would have been using her power to watch someone. If they were a paranoid gun owner - that would explain how she was killed. I no longer think bussing was involved - at the time I was trying to link Milky's Tirade post with Mith's death. ie. Milky tries to kill Tirade, but Tirade and Mith were Bussed so he killed Mith instead and wonders why Tirade was still alive. The only thing that makes me question the paranoid gun owner theory is that Milky is fairly adamant that Mith was not killed by a townie power.
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Feb 18, 2015 07:39
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a poo poo tonne of people have him as their prime suspect.
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Feb 18, 2015 07:41
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Splode posted:nah dj-bbq's been in heaps of these games, but he's infamous for hardly ever bothering to post. I still haven't figured out the  strategy yetEvery previous game I've played I've been in a faction with a group document to talk in, now I'm all alone
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Feb 18, 2015 07:46
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Freudian Slip posted:We seem to be going around in circles Bif. Tirade was not bused. I have already said that Tirade was either protected or I was blocked, jailed, whatever.
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Feb 18, 2015 07:52
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